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Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study County of Frontenac ______ Population, Housing and Employment Projections Study County of Frontenac ________________________ Final Report Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 905-272-3600 January 20, 2020 [email protected] Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... i 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................ 1-1 2. Approach .......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 What Drives Population Growth .............................................................. 2-1 2.2 Long-term Permanent Population and Housing Forecast Approach ....... 2-5 3. Overview of Macro-Economic Employment and Demographic Trends ...... 3-1 3.1 Ontario Economic Outlook within the Canadian Context ........................ 3-1 3.1.1 Outlook for Ontario’s Manufacturing Sector ............................... 3-2 3.2 Regional Economic Trends ..................................................................... 3-3 3.2.1 Regional Labour Force Trends, Kingston C.M.A., 2001 to 2016 ........................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.2 Frontenac County Economic Trends .......................................... 3-5 3.3 Observations ......................................................................................... 3-13 4. Demographic and Housing Trends within Frontenac County ..................... 4-1 4.1 Frontenac County Historical Demographic Trends ................................. 4-1 4.1.1 Historical Population Trends, 2001 to 2016 ............................... 4-1 4.2 Kingston C.M.A. Short-Term Population Estimate, 2018 ....................... 4-2 4.2.1 Components of Population Growth, 2001 to 2016 ..................... 4-4 4.2.2 Historical Population Growth by Local Municipality .................... 4-9 4.3 Frontenac County Historical Housing Trends ....................................... 4-10 4.3.1 Historical Residential Building Permits Activity by Type, 2009 to 2018 ............................................................................ 4-10 4.3.2 Housing Headship Rates, 2001 to 2016 .................................. 4-14 4.3.3 Persons Per Housing Unit, 2001 to 2016 ................................. 4-14 4.3.4 Housing Demand Trends by Structure Type ............................ 4-15 4.4 Seasonal Housing Trends, 2011 to 2018 .............................................. 4-16 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Frontenac County\2019 Growth Forecast 2\Report\To client\2nd Final Draft\Frontenac County Population, Housing and Employment Projections v2.docx Table of Contents (Cont’d) Page 4.5 Observations ......................................................................................... 4-17 5. Policy Context .................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Provincial Policy Context ........................................................................ 5-1 5.1.1 Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) ............................................. 5-1 5.1.2 Proposed Provincial Policy Statement (2019) ............................ 5-9 5.2 Frontenac County Policy Context ......................................................... 5-10 5.2.1 County of Frontenac Official Plan, 2016 .................................. 5-10 5.2.2 County of Frontenac Communal Services Study, 2019 ........... 5-11 5.3 Area Municipalities ................................................................................ 5-11 5.3.1 The Township of South Frontenac ........................................... 5-12 5.3.2 Township of Central Frontenac ................................................ 5-13 5.3.3 Township of North Frontenac ................................................... 5-15 5.3.4 Township of Frontenac Islands ................................................ 5-16 5.4 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 5-19 6. Regional and Local Growth Drivers ............................................................... 6-1 6.1 Regional Growth Drivers ......................................................................... 6-1 6.1.1 The Kingston C.M.A. Economy has Recently Exhibited Increasing Strength in Both Goods Producing and Service Providing Sectors ....................................................................... 6-1 6.1.2 Commuting Patterns in Frontenac County, 2001 and 2016 ....... 6-3 6.1.3 Continued Demand for Steady Seasonal Dwelling Growth from the G.G.H. and Greater Ottawa ......................................... 6-5 6.1.4 Conversions of Seasonal Dwellings to Permanent Housing ...... 6-5 6.2 Local Growth Drivers .............................................................................. 6-6 6.2.1 Population Growth of the 55+ Age Group .................................. 6-6 6.2.2 Wolfe Island Ferry ...................................................................... 6-7 6.2.3 Quality of Life ............................................................................. 6-8 7. Future Housing Supply on Vacant Lands in Frontenac County .................. 7-1 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 7-1 7.2 Summary of Applications for Plans of Subdivision/Condominium ........... 7-1 7.3 Vacant Residential Lands within Designated Settlement Areas .............. 7-4 7.4 Rural Lot Supply ..................................................................................... 7-4 8. Population, Housing and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2046 ................... 8-1 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 8-1 8.2 Kingston C.M.A. Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2046 .......................... 8-1 8.3 Frontenac County Employment Growth Scenarios ................................. 8-2 8.4 Frontenac County Preferred Employment Forecast (Base Case Scenario), 2016 to 2046.......................................................................... 8-4 8.5 Kingston C.M.A. Population Forecast, 2016 to 2046 ............................. 8-8 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Frontenac County\2019 Growth Forecast 2\Report\To client\2nd Final Draft\Frontenac County Population, Housing and Employment Projections v2.docx Table of Contents (Cont’d) Page 8.6 Frontenac County Long-Term Permanent Population Growth Scenarios, 2016 to 2046 ......................................................................... 8-9 8.7 Preferred Permanent Population and Housing Growth Scenario .......... 8-10 8.7.1 Preferred Permanent Population Forecast ............................... 8-10 8.7.2 Permanent Population Forecast by Age Cohort ....................... 8-13 8.8 Frontenac County Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2046 ............................. 8-14 8.9 Seasonal Population and Housing Growth ........................................... 8-18 9. Allocation of County-Wide Housing and Population Forecasts .................. 9-1 9.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 9-1 9.2 Population and Housing Growth Outlook for Area Municipalities ............ 9-4 9.2.1 Township of South Frontenac .................................................... 9-4 9.2.2 Township of Frontenac Islands .................................................. 9-5 9.2.3 Township of Central Frontenac .................................................. 9-7 9.2.4 Township of North Frontenac ..................................................... 9-8 9.3 Observations ......................................................................................... 9-10 10. Conclusions ................................................................................................... 10-1 Appendix A Frontenac County Population, Housing and Employment Projection Comparison .................................................................................. A-1 Appendix B Additional Details Regarding Growth Forecast Approach and Methodology ................................................................................................... B-1 Appendix C Frontenac County Net Migration Analysis ........................................ C-1 Appendix D Frontenac County Local Population & Housing Growth Forecasts......................................................................................................... D-1 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Frontenac County\2019 Growth Forecast 2\Report\To client\2nd Final Draft\Frontenac County Population, Housing and Employment Projections v2.docx List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Acronym Full Description of Acronym E.M.S.I. Employment Modelling Specialists International G.D.P. Gross Domestic Product G.G.H. Golden Greater Horseshoe G.T.A. Greater Toronto Area G.T.H.A. Greater Toronto Hamilton Area L.Q. Location Quotient MPAC Municipal Property Assessment Corporation MTO Ministry of Transportation N.F.P.O.W. No Fixed Place of Work O.P. Official Plan PPS Provincial Policy Statement P.P.U. Persons Per Unit PMI Purchasing Manager’s Index Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Frontenac County\2019 Growth Forecast 2\Report\To client\2nd Final Draft\Frontenac County Population, Housing and Employment Projections
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