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Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot

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Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Global Structured Finance Research J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. New York June 10, 2004 Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Contents Investment Themes: We continue to recommend longer-dated ABS in the context of position for yield curve flattening as the Fed starts to US Relative Value 2 tighten. In addition, we like subordinates ABS based on solid fundamentals and attractive spread pickup in lower rated credits. The single- Spreads Volatility 3 A segment of the credit curve remains cheap across ABS sectors. CDS Spreads 5 Issuance 18 This Week: US ABS. ABS issuance totaled roughly $5.4bn over the last four days, including $2.5bn in HEL ABS and a large $1.4bn Europe Spreads 42 Credit Card deal. Within the Home Equity sector this year, deals backed entirely by second lien mortgages tallies up to just over $2bn across Issuance 43 six transactions. Investors’ desire to diversify and the scarcity value of paper are creating favorable technicals in that segment. Year-to-date Asia Spreads 52 Issuance 53 supply currently stands at $241bn. AAA spreads were unchanged on the week. BBB Credit Card ABS spreads tightened 5bp on the long CDO Spreads 58 maturities (7-year and beyond). BBB HEL spreads narrowed as well with better bids from CDOs, while mezzanines tranches are still Issuance 60 experiencing light demand and weak pricing. Pipeline 75 Rating Changes 89 European ABS. The pace of the new issue market remains brisk ahead of next week's ABS conference, with many issuers hoping to price Ratings Watch 92 their transactions ahead of a growing post-conference pipeline. Secondary activity has also been busy with significant flows in RMBS, with Christopher Flanagan AC most trading in recent new issues. Spreads were mostly unchanged across sectors on the week – although they remain 2bp wider than the Head, Global Structured Finance tights we saw two weeks ago. 2004 supply is up to $107bn, compared to $72bn over the same period in 2003. Research (1-212) 270-6515 [email protected] Asian ABS. We saw US$560mm from four new issues out of the Asian market – two Japanese Consumer Loan ABS, plus Auto and Non- ABS/CDO Research Performing Loan ABS from Korea. On the year, Japan and Korea accounts for approximately 58% and 12% of the primary market, Rishad Ahluwalia (London) respectively. Issuance activity is also concentrated in Australia as well, with an 18% share. (44-207) 777-1045 [email protected] Ryan Asato (1-212) 270-0317 CDOs. Issuance this week consisted of three CDOs (two HY CLOs and one SF CDO). The $766mm Capital Source Commercial Loan [email protected] Trust 2004-1, backed by SME Loans, priced from the US and the €280mm HY CLO Petrusse from Invesco, priced from Europe. Also Benjamin Graves priced was the $101mm SF Skylark 2004-2 that priced from Japan. Five CDOs were added to the forward pipeline (two SF CDOs, two HY (1-212) 270-1972 [email protected] CLOs and one IG Debt CDO). Ting Ko (London) (44-207) 777-0363 In the News: S&P raised its ratings on six subordinated classes of Harley-Davidson 2002 and 2001 Motorcyc le ABS due to increased credit [email protected] Edward Reardon (London) enhancement. S&P also revised its outlook on AmeriCredit Corp to positive from stable (B rating for long-term counterparty credit rating) (44-207) 777-1260 reflecting improved financial health and asset quality. [email protected] Parul Sahai (1-212) 270-0137 [email protected] Amy Sze, CFA (1-212) 270-0030 [email protected] Tracy Van Voorhis (1-212) 270-0157 tracy [email protected] The certifying analyst(s) is indicated by AC. See last page of the report for analyst certification and important legal and regulatory disclosures. June 10, 2004 Global Structured Finance Research Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Analyst Christopher Flanagan [email protected] U.S. Chart 1 Chart 2 Chart 3 Floating vs. Asset Swapped (Cards) Fixed Rate ABS Yield 3 vs. 5 Yr Fixed Rate ABS Yield 5 vs. 10 Yr Spreads (bps) (bps) (bps) Relative Value 15 150 200 10 150 5 100 100 0 50 -5 50 -10 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2 Yr FL Cards - 2 Yr FX Cards Asset Swaped Cards HEL MH Cards HEL MH 5 Yr FL Cards - 5 Yr FX Cards Asset Swaped Fixed Curr Avg* Curr Avg* Curr Avg* Mat Float Swap Pickup Pickup Diff Coll 5 Yr 3 Yr Pickup Pickup Diff Coll 10 Yr 5 Yr Pickup Pickup Diff 2 2 0 2 0.7 1.3 Cards 4.51% 3.76% 75 86.9 -12.4 Cards 5.44% 4.51% 93 116.9 -23.7 5 9 6 3 2.5 0.5 HEL 5.20% 4.15% 105 116.4 -11.9 HEL 6.23% 5.20% 103 137.8 -34.6 MH 5.65% 4.60% 105 120.8 -16.3 MH 6.83% 5.65% 118 157.2 -39.0 Chart 4 Chart 5 Chart 6 Prime vs. Mid Prime Autos Fixed Rate ABS Quality Curve AAA vs. A Fixed Rate ABS Quality Curve AAA vs. BBB (Nominal Spreads to Treasuries) (Nominal Spreads to Treasuries) (Nominal Spreads to Treasuries) 50 200 400 40 150 300 30 100 200 20 50 100 10 0 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Auto 3 Yr Cards 5 Yr Cards 5 Yr HEL 5 Yr 2 Year 3 Year HEL 5 Yr MH 7 Yr Mid Curr Avg* Curr Avg* Curr Avg* Mat Prime Prime Pickup Pickup Diff Coll A AAA Pickup Pickup Diff Coll BBB AAA Pickup Pickup Diff 2 51 44 7 9.5 -2.5 Auto 63 51 12 19.4 -7.4 Cards 115 51 64 80.2 -16.2 3 61 51 10 15.0 -5.0 Cards 74 51 23 24.4 -1.4 HEL 250 120 130 173.8 -43.8 HEL 220 120 100 80.6 19.4 MH 451 191 260 328.5 -68.5 * Average pickup for past 12 months. 2 Source: JPMS. June 10, 2004 Global Structured Finance Research Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Analyst Christopher Flanagan [email protected] U.S. Chart 7 Chart 8 Chart 9 Credit Cards (5 Year) Autos (3 Year) Autos vs. Cards (3 Year) Spread Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread Differential (bps) Volatility / 40 50 20 Mean Reversion 40 30 15 30 10 20 20 5 10 10 0 0 0 -10 -5 -10 -20 -10 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Chart 10 Chart 11 Chart 12 Home Equity (5 Year) FNMA (Current Coupon) Home Equity - FNMA Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread Differential (bps) 150 150 50 120 100 0 90 60 50 -50 30 0 0 -100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Chart 13 Chart 14 Chart 15 Swaps (5 Year) CMBS (5 Year) Agency PAC (5 Year) Swap Spread (bps) Spread to 5 Year Swap (bps) Spread to 5 Year Swaps (bps) 120 120 200 100 100 150 80 80 60 100 60 40 50 40 20 0 20 0 0 -20 -50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Weekly Spread Data 10 Week Moving Average +/- 2 Standard Deviations Source: JPMS. 3 June 10, 2004 Global Structured Finance Research Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Analyst Christopher Flanagan [email protected] U.S. Chart 16 Chart 17 Chart 18 Triple-A Cards (5 Year) Double-A Banks (5 Year) Double-A Banks - Triple-A Cards Spread Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread Differential (bps) Volatility / Mean 50 60 60 Reversion - 40 40 40 ABS vs. 30 20 20 Corporates 20 0 0 10 0 -20 -20 -10 -40 -40 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Chart 19 Chart 20 Chart 21 Single-A Cards (5 Year) Single-A Banks (5 Year) Single-A Banks - Single-A Cards Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread Differential (bps) 100 150 60 80 40 100 60 20 40 50 0 20 -20 0 0 -40 -20 -50 -60 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Chart 22 Chart 23 Chart 24 Triple-B Home Equity (5 Year) Triple-B Banks (5 Year) Triple-B HELs - Triple-B Banks Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread to Swaps (bps) Spread Differential (bps) 500 200 400 300 400 150 300 200 100 200 100 100 50 0 0 0 -100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Weekly Spread Data 10 Week Moving Average +/- 2 Standard Deviations Source: JPMS. 4 June 10, 2004 Global Structured Finance Research Global ABS/CDO Weekly Market Snapshot Analyst Christopher Flanagan [email protected] Credit Default Chart 2 Credit Default Swaps Spread - Credit Card Issuers Swaps Spread - (bps) Credit Card 1,000 52 Week Current Last 900 Company Week Week Change Max Min Avg 800 CitiGroup Aa1/AA+ 27 28 -1 37 15 23 700 MBNA Baa2/BBB+ 63 63 0 103 50 63 600 Household A2/A 31 31 0 50 20 31 500 Capital One Baa3/BBB 95 96 -1 280 88 145 400 Amex A1/A+ 31 30 1 32 20 25 Fleet A1/A 30 30 0 40 20 27 300 200 100 0 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02 1/03 7/03 1/04 Citi MBNA Household Capital One Amex Fleet 5 Source: JPMS.
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