Unexploded Ordnance a Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods
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Unexploded Ordnance A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods Jacqueline MacDonald Debra Knopman J.R. Lockwood Gary Cecchine Henry Willis Prepared for the United States Army R Arroyo Center Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-01-C-0003. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Unexploded ordnance : a critical review of risk assessment methods / Jacqueline MacDonald ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1674.” ISBN 0-8330-3432-4 (Paperback) 1. Explosive ordnance disposal. 2. Military bases—United States. 3. Military base closures—United States. 4. Hazardous substances—Risk assessment—United States. I. MacDonald, Jacqueline. UF860.U55 2003 355.6'213'0973—dc21 2003012740 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE This report documents the findings of a study that examined meth- ods for assessing the risks of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and muni- tions constituents on former military training land. The report focuses specifically on methods applicable to sites on closed, trans- ferred, and transferring bases that are being or have already been converted to civilian uses. The Army has not yet arrived at a consen- sus with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state agencies, and other concerned groups about what process should be used to assess risks and evaluate potential responses to sites contaminated with both UXO and munitions constituents. This report is the first to analyze in detail all of the approaches the Army has developed to assess risks of UXO sites. It also recommends how the Army can move forward with developing risk assessment protocols that will be acceptable to all of those involved at UXO sites. The report should interest anyone involved in the transfer of military sites under the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program and with management of the Formerly Utilized Defense Sites (FUDS). Although the report was written for the Army, it will also be of broad interest to the Department of Defense (DoD), the EPA, the Depart- ment of the Interior, state regulators, and citizen groups involved at BRAC and FUDS sites. In addition, aspects of this report should interest Army and DoD policymakers involved in the planning of possible future base closure rounds. This work was sponsored by the Assistant Chief of Staff for Installa- tion Management, United States Army. The research was conducted in the Military Logistics Program of the RAND Arroyo Center, a fed- iii iv Risks of Unexploded Ordnance erally funded research and development center sponsored by the U.S. Army. For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; FAX 310-451-6952; e-mail [email protected]), or visit the Arroyo Center’s Web site at http://www.rand.org/ard/. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Tables.......................................... xi Summary ....................................... xiii Acknowledgments................................. xxv Abbreviations .................................... xxvii Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 Study Tasks................................... 2 Study Methods ................................ 3 How This Report Is Organized ..................... 4 Categories of UXO Sites .......................... 4 Number of UXO Sites ........................... 4 Sources and Types of UXO ....................... 5 Risks from UXO Sites ............................ 6 UXO Detection and Removal Process ................ 9 Efforts to Standardize UXO Risk Assessment Processes ... 15 Chapter Two POTENTIAL FOR A RISK-BASED APPROACH TO UXO RESPONSE ............................ 19 What Is Risk Assessment? ........................ 20 History of Risk Assessment ....................... 21 Potential Applications of Risk Assessment to UXO Problems ................................. 24 v vi Risks of Unexploded Ordnance Challenges of Using Risk Assessment for UXO Sites ..... 24 Criteria for an Effective Risk Assessment Method ....... 30 Conclusions .................................. 34 Chapter Three EVALUATION OF EXISTING METHODS FOR UXO RISK ASSESSMENT ..................... 35 Overview of Existing Methods ..................... 35 Intended Uses ............................... 36 Risk Sources, Data Requirements, and Output ....... 37 Criteria for an Effective Method .................... 37 Interim Range Rule Risk Methodology ............... 38 Key Features ................................ 38 Description ................................. 39 Risk Calculation Method ....................... 39 Implementation Features ...................... 49 Communication Features ...................... 50 Conclusions................................. 51 Ordnance and Explosives Cost-Effectiveness Risk Tool ... 51 Key Features ................................ 51 Description ................................. 52 Risk Calculation Method ....................... 53 Technical Models and Assumptions ............... 56 Implementation Features ...................... 62 Communication Features ...................... 62 Conclusions................................. 63 Risk Assessment Code ........................... 63 Key Features ................................ 63 Description ................................. 63 Risk Calculation Features ....................... 65 Implementation Features ...................... 66 Communication Features ...................... 66 Conclusions................................. 66 Ordnance and Explosives Risk Impact Analysis ........ 67 Key Features ................................ 67 Description ................................. 67 Risk Calculation Features ....................... 69 Implementation Features ...................... 69 Communication Features ...................... 71 Conclusions................................. 71 Natural and Cultural Resources Bank ................ 71 Contents vii Key Features ................................ 71 Description ................................. 72 Risk Calculation Features ....................... 72 Implementation Features ...................... 76 Communication Features ...................... 77 Conclusions................................. 78 Summary .................................... 78 Chapter Four OTHER FEDERAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS ...... 81 Prioritizing Sites Based On Risk .................... 84 Relative Risk Site Evaluation Primer ............... 84 Hazard Ranking System ........................ 92 Environmental Restoration Priority System ......... 95 Developing Quantitative Risk Estimates for Specific Sites . 99 Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund ........... 100 Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund ... 104 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (NRC, NASA, and FAA) .. 106 Safety Assessment for Explosion Risk .............. 110 Assessing Multiple Risk End Points ................. 112 Evaluating Uncertainty in Risk Estimates ............. 116 Standardizing the Risk Assessment Process ........... 118 Working with Stakeholders ....................... 119 Developing Trust Among Stakeholders .............. 122 Conclusions .................................. 123 Chapter Five CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......... 125 Recommended Process for Prioritization ............. 129 Process Description ........................... 129 Oversight by Technical Review Board and Advisory Committee ............................... 133 Two Lists, Based on Land Use ................... 134 Recommended Site-Specific Risk Assessment Process ... 135 Description of Recommended Approach ........... 136 Development of Event and Fault Trees ............. 137 Oversight by a Technical Review Board ............. 139 Summary of Recommendations ................... 139 References ...................................... 143 FIGURES 1.1. 60mm HE Mortar Found at Fort McClellan ........ 6 1.2. Searching for UXO at Fort Ord .................. 10 1.3. Example ROC Curve from Field Test of EMI Systems at Fort Ord (1.6-foot search radius) .............. 12 1.4. Example ROC Curve from Field Test of EMI Systems at Fort Ord (3.3-foot search radius) .............. 13 1.5. Example of a Process Proposed by State Regulators for Cleanup of a UXO Site ........................ 14 2.1. Classic Example of Dose-Response Curves for Three Chemicals That Can Cause Cancer .............. 28 2.2. Plumes of Groundwater Contaminants at the Massachusetts