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Office Market Overview

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Office Market Overview YEAR-END 2011 | DOWNTOWN OFFICE RESEARCH REPORT | FOURTH QUARTER 2011 | DOWNTOWN CHICAGO | OFFICE CHICAGO OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Finishing on a High Note With reported year-end absorption at its highest rate since 2007, the Chicago CBD continued its path towards recovery, albeit at a very tentative and labored pace. For much of 2011, the Chicago CBD witnessed inconsistencies in recovery with varying degrees of improvement dependent on factors such as asset class, the relative health of landlords, tenant industry and submarket desirability. The result has been a rather jagged path towards recovery. Yet clear signs exist of marked improvement over the prior year. As vacancy MARKET INDICATORS decreased 70 basis points to 15.1 percent during 2011, it Overall Chicago CBD seems the market has reclaimed its footing with improved Year-end Year-end demand resulting in 996,110 square feet of positive net 2010 2011 absorption during the year. Despite this absorption, the VACANCY RATE 15.8% 15.1% market still remains somewhat soft with demand levels weak relative to pre-recession years when annual net ABSORPTION (SF) -206,844 996,110 absorption typically exceeded 3,000,000 square feet. RENTS $31.54 $31.45 TENANTS GET CREATIVE INVENTORY 140,794,206 140,794,206 During the year, tenants adapted to market conditions and reevaluated their space strategies. Space contractions continue to be a deterrent to the market’s recovery as some tenants are still responding to stagnant economic conditions by shedding excess space. However, the velocity of contractions appears to have subsided in the latter part of the year. Space efficiencies have also become a priority to tenants, further contributing to potential contractions in coming quarters. Today’s cost-conscious tenants are actively seeking ways to simultaneously streamline costs while still accommodating the mobile nature of today’s workforce. Alternative workplace strategies such as hoteling have become increasingly popular. Hoteling allows employees to share workspaces as they alternate working from home, the office or some other remote location, thus reducing a company’s space needs. Such strategies not only serve as a cost cutting initiative, helping corporations improve their bottom line, but also provide today’s younger and more mobile workforce with the flexibility they desire. Tenants are also discovering that their storage needs are being greatly reduced as digital archiving and cloud technology becomes more prevalent. The downturn has inspired companies to look for resourceful and creative ways of reducing space and this sentiment is not likely to change in the near future. Although the desire to reduce company footprints could be a potential obstacle to a speedier recovery in the CBD, several bright spots in the market may help to compensate for any contractions. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 1 RESEARCH REPORT | YEAR-END 2011 | DOWNTOWN CHICAGO | OFFICE Strong demand drivers including ease of commuting, reduced pricing relative to pre-recession years, access to an expansive and talented labor pool and the ability for greater work-life balance have made the CBD the beneficiary of corporate migration from the suburbs during 2011. The most recent announcement of such migration occurred during the fourth quarter as Sara Lee committed to relocating its meat business from suburban Downers Grove to the CBD. Sara Lee’s relocation will result in almost 235,000 square feet of positive net absorption once the company relocates in 2013. This transaction exemplifies the type of thoughtful decision-making being employed by tenants today as they consider how their physical environment can be leveraged to create a competitive advantage whether that is through finding ways to recruit and retain the best employees or via cost savings as a result of lease restructures or relocations. JOB GROWTH RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MAJOR CBD Another positive note for the CBD includes the EXPANSIONS BY EXISTING TENANTS mayor’s job growth initiative which has resulted Tenant Growth Plans Timing in securing several long-term expansion commitments by existing tenants. Over the Continental Holdings 1,300 Employees End of 2012 past year, at least twelve corporations have announced plans to expand their existing operations in Chicago, with a total commitment that exceeds 6,900 new jobs over the Devry, Inc. 1,000 Employees 2012 and beyond next several years. These commitments provide the potential for positive absorption in the future as jobs are gradually added. GE Capital 1,000 Employees In Process Groupon 500 Employees+ In Process STILL A LANDLORD’S MARKET? The CBD office market continues to be segmented as abundant availabilities still exist Accenture 500 Employees Mid-2012 for small- to mid-sized tenants while space options for larger tenants are becoming Ernst & Young 500 Employees End of 2012 further constrained, particularly in the high-view, Class A sector of the market. The prevailing sentiment among tenants is that economic uncertainty in our markets Sara Lee 500 Employees Early 2013 should automatically lend itself to every landlord competing aggressively for tenancies regardless of a building’s market position. However, with the continued attraction of JP Morgan Chase 400 Employees End of 2012 tenants from the suburbs and other outside markets as well as the growth experienced Motorola Solutions 400 Employees End of 2012 in the technology and healthcare sectors, vacancy levels in the CBD have started to rebound more quickly than originally anticipated, leaving landlords of well-occupied Allscripts 300 Employees End of 2012 assets more confident and less willing to compete as aggressively for tenants as they EMC Corporation 200 Employees End of 2013 were one year ago. The broader market remains a tenant’s market with landlords of high-vacancy assets still willing to compete aggressively for tenants via inflated Merge Healthcare 200 Employees End of 2013 concession packages and reduced rental rates when their capital structures allow. However, the healthier, top-tier sector of the market is now trending towards Accretive Health 100 Employees In Process increasingly more bullish fundamentals as landlords of these assets have become more tenacious in their negotiations and are more selective about which deals they will aggressively pursue. 2012 FORECAST Office market fundamentals should continue to improve throughout 2012 and, barring any unforeseen catastrophes, a more sustained recovery will likely develop in 2013. Many tenants feel more confident in their long-term viability than they did just one year ago and the nervousness and that stalled decision-making during the last several years has given way to cautious optimism. However, full recovery will be largely predicated on economic growth. Serving as a deterrent to a completely rebounded outlook are global concerns surrounding the Eurozone debt crisis and recent rumors about a slowdown in emerging markets. This, combined with political indecision within our own government and the unknown impact that the upcoming U.S. presidential election will have on our national economy, has tenants expressing continued concerns about the sustainability of a recovery. The pace of recovery in the first part of 2012 will likely be tepid due to the global uncertainties that continue to prevent the average business from moving forward with more aggressive hiring and in turn delays their ability to make leasing decisions unless they are expiration-driven. Large corporations that are feeling more confident about their long-term viability and have a higher comfort level for signing long-term lease commitments will continue to carry demand in the market while small- to mid-sized tenants slowly move towards reaching that same comfort level assuming economic recovery supports it. As such, improvements in the market will continue to be unevenly dispersed with certain landlords and submarkets experiencing more robust leasing activity while others will continue to struggle attracting tenants. As the market continues to gradually pull out of the slump, 2012 should be an opportunistic year for tenants and landlords alike. Tenants that are creditworthy and flexible in their space options will still be able to locate numerous opportunities to lock in reduced rental rates while landlords will use the coming year to focus on improving occupancies and stabilizing their assets in order to better position themselves for the future. It is anticipated that the movement towards recovery that the Chicago CBD experienced in 2011 will continue into 2012, although the overall growth experienced will remain modest until economic uncertainty no longer becomes the norm. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2 Investment Sales Activity 2006 - 2011 70 60 60 53 50 40 30 Number of Sales 20 15 16 10 9 3 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Class A Class B Class C Source: Costar; Colliers International Research RESEARCH REPORT | YEAR-END 2011 | DOWNTOWN CHICAGO | OFFICE New Constructionv Deliveries VACANCY AND ABSORPTION 2000 - 2010 The CBD vacancy rate continued its descent NETNet ABSORPTIONAbsorption & Vacancy & VACANCY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT during the fourth quarter, ending the year at 15.1 4,000,000 Overall CBD 3,652,913 percent, compared to 15.8 percent at the end of 4,003,0,500000,000 3,562,728 3,695,540 18.0% 2010. During this most recent down cycle, 15.8% 15.8% 16.0% 3,03,00,000000,000 15.1% vacancy peaked at 16.2 percent in the first 14.5% 14.0% quarter of 2010. However, modest decreases 2,002,0,500000,000 12.1% 12.0% Vacancy 1,892,460111.9%,897,981 during the past seven consecutive quarters have 2,000,000 1,745,968 996,110 1,000,000 10.0% allowed for some headway towards recovery, as 1,504,364 408,121 1,500,000 1,331,436 Square Footage 0 8.0% the current vacancy rate is the lowest reported Square Footage 933,710 1,000,000 782,400 (206,844) since the end of 2009.
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