G E O L O G Y F A N O D STATE OF OREGON T Tsunami Inundation Map Coos-05 N M I E N DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES M E T R

R A Tsunami Inundation Maps for Coos Bay - North Bend, A www. OregonGeology.org L Local Source (Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map P

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D Larry Givens, Governing Board Chair

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T Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist

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S O Don WT. Lewis, Assistant Director Coos Bay - North Bend, Oregon

Rachel R. Lyles Smith, Project Operations Manager 2012 1937 Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist

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Introduction Legend Average Slip Maximum Slip Time to Earthquake Tsunami Inundation Map Index Coos Bay Area Buildings within Tsunami Inundation Zones Tsunami Wave Height through Time for Simulated Gauge Stations Maximum Wave Elevation Profile A-A': Barview The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has been identifying and CSZ Model Specifications: The sizes of the earthquake and its resultant tsunami are primarily driven This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon Revised Statutes 455.446 and Earthquake Size Range (ft) Range (ft) Accumulate Slip (years) Magnitude mapping the tsunami inundation hazard along the Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI by the amount and geometry of the slip that takes place when the North American Plate snaps 455.447), commonly known as the Senate Bill 379 line. Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI 01 02 manages the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been administered by the westward over the Juan de Fuca Plate during a CSZ event. DOGAMI has modeled a wide range of to establish the area of expected tsunami inundation based on scientific evidence and tsunami XXL 59 to 72 118 to 144 1,200 ~9.1 03 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) since 1995. DOGAMI’s work is designed earthquake and tsunami sizes that take into account different fault geometries that could amplify modeling in order to prohibit the construction of new essential and special occupancy structures in to help cities, counties, and other sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami- the amount of seawater displacement and increase tsunami inundation. Seismic geophysical this tsunami inundation zone, (Priest, 1995). XL 56 to 72 115 to 144 1,050 to 1,200 ~9.1 04 related consequences by understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. Using federal funding profiles show that there may be a steep splay fault running nearly parallel to the CSZ but closer to 06 awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new generation of tsunami inundation maps to help the Oregon coastline (Figure 1). The effect of this splay fault moving during a full-rupture CSZ event Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the tsunami scenarios, the computer L 36 to 49 72 to 98 650 to 800 ~9.0 05

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residents and visitors along the entire Oregon coast prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction Zone would be an increase in the amount of vertical displacement of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in an model produces time series data for “gauge” locations in the area. These points are simulated gauge 07 o g

o M 23 to 30 46 to 62 425 to 525 ~8.9 u

C (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami. increase of the tsunami inundation onshore in Oregon. DOGAMI has also incorporated physical stations that record the time, in seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival and the wave height observed 08 09 o

10 11 D evidence that suggests that portions of the coast may drop 4 to 10 feet during the earthquake; this for each time interval. It is especially noteworthy that the greatest wave height and velocity observed SM 13 to 16 30 to 36 275 to 300 ~8.7 The CSZ is the tectonic plate boundary between the North American Plate and the Juan de Fuca effect is known as subsidence. Detailed information on fault geometries, subsidence, computer are not necessarily associated with the first tsunami wave to arrive onshore. Therefore evacuees 12 13 Plate (Figure 1). These plates are converging at a rate of about 1.5 inches per year, but the movement models, and the methodology used to create the tsunami scenarios presented on this map can be should not assume that the tsunami event is over until the proper authorities have sounded the all- XXL Wet/Dry Zone 14 is not smooth and continuous. Rather, the plates lock in place, and unreleased energy builds over found in DOGAMI Special Papers 41 (Priest and others, 2009) and 43 (Witter and others, 2011). clear signal at the end of the evacuation. Figure 5 depicts time series data for the map plate area. 15 16 time. At intervals, this accumulated energy is violently released in the form of a megathrust Figure 6 (profiles A-A' and B-B') depicts the overall wave height and inundation extent for all five Urban Growth Boundary ! Fire Station earthquake rupture, where the North American Plate suddenly slips westward over the Juan de Map Explanation scenarios at select profiles on this map. Fuca Plate. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of water that creates a tsunami (Figure 2). ! Police Station 17 Building Footprint Similar rupture processes and tsunamis have occurred elsewhere on the planet where subduction This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models representing five selected Occurrence and Relative Size of Cascadia Subduction Zone zones exist: for example, offshore Chile in 1960 and 2010, offshore Alaska in 1964, near Sumatra in tsunami scenarios, all of which include the earthquake-produced subsidence and the tsunami- Megathrust Earthquakes ! School 2004, and offshore Japan in March 2011. amplifying effects of the splay fault. Each scenario assumes that a tsunami occurs at Mean Higher 6 Simulated Gauge Station ! Hospital High Water (MHHW) tide; MHHW is defined as the average height of the higher high tides observed Maximum Wave Elevation Profile B-B': City of Coos Bay

Cross Section Profile Location OREGON y s

: Comprehensive research of the offshore geologic record indicates that at least 19 over an 18-year period at the Port Orford tide gauge. To make it easier to understand this scientific r CSZ Frequency o

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major ruptures of the full length of the CSZ have occurred off the Oregon coast over the past 10,000 material and to enhance the educational aspects of hazard mitigation and response, the five Senate Bill 379 Line C C

years (Figure 3). All 19 of these full-rupture CSZ events were likely magnitude 8.9 to 9.2 earthquakes scenarios are labeled as “T-shirt sizes” ranging from Small, Medium, Large, Extra Large, to Extra Ø241 State Highway (Witter and others, 2011). The most recent CSZ event happened 312 years ago on January 26, 1700. Extra Large (S, M, L, XL, XXL). The map legend depicts the respective amounts of slip, the frequency Elevation Contour (25 ft intervals up to 200 ft) Sand deposits carried onshore and left by the 1700 event have been found 1.2 miles inland; older of occurrence, and the earthquake magnitude for these five scenarios. Figure 4 shows the Improved Road Coos-01 Lakeside West Coos-10 Isthmus Slough tsunami sand deposits have also been discovered in estuaries 6 miles inland. As shown in Figure 3, cumulative number of buildings inundated within the map area. Coos-02 Lakeside East Coos-11 Catching Slough Coos-03 Saunders Lake Coos-12 Bullards Beach the range in time between these 19 events varies from 110 to 1,150 years, with a median time Coos-04 Haynes Inlet Coos-13 Leneve interval of 490 years. In 2008 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released the results of a The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as millions of points with values Data References Coos-05 Coos Bay - North Bend Coos-14 Coquille Coos-06 Coos River North Coos-15 Coquille River study announcing that the probability of a magnitude 8-9 CSZ earthquake occurring over the next that indicate whether the location of each point is wet or dry. These points are converted to wet and Source data: This map is based on hydrodynamic tsunami modeling by Joseph Zhang, Oregon Health and Science University, Coos-07 Coos River South Coos-16 Bandon 30 years is 10% and that such earthquakes occur about every 500 years (WGCEP, 2008). dry contour lines that form the extent of inundation. The transition area between the wet and dry Portland, Oregon. Model data input were created by John T. English and George R. Priest, Department of Coos-08 Charleston - Cape Arago Coos-17 New River Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Portland, Oregon. Coos-09 Barview - South Slough contour lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, which equates to the amount of error in the model when Figure 3: This chart depicts the timing, frequency, and magnitude of the last 19 great Cascadia Bathymetry data are from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Technical Memorandum Subduction Zone events over the past 10,000 years. The most recent event occurred on January 26, Figure 4: The table and chart show the number of buildings inundated for each “tsunami T-shirt NESDIS NGDC-21 Digital Elevation Model of Port Orford, Oregon (2009). determining the maximum inundation for the each scenario. Only the XXL Wet/Dry Zone is shown scenario” for cities and unincorporated portions of the map. 1700. The 1700 event is considered to be a “medium sized” event. The data used to create this chart Hydrology data, contours, critical facilities, and building footprints were created by DOGAMI from 2009 to on this map. came from research that examined the many submarine landslides, known as “turbidites,” that are 2011. Senate Bill 379 line data were redigitized by Rachel R. Lyles Smith and Sean G. Pickner, DOGAMI, in 2011 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Kilometer (GIS file set, in press, 2012). Cascadia Subduction Zone Setting triggered only by these great earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The loose correlation is “the bigger the turbidite, the bigger the earthquake.” Urban growth boundaries (2010) were provided by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). 0 0.125 0.25 0.5 Mile Transportation data (2008) were provided by Coos County. Map Data Creation/Development: Lidar data are from DOGAMI Lidar Data Quadrangles LDQ-2009-42124G4-Sixes and LDQ-2009-South Coast Tsunami Inundation Scenarios: George R. Priest, Bundle 7. Laura L. Stimely, Daniel E. Coe, Paul A. Ferro, Sean G. Pickner, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Coordinate System: Oregon Statewide Lambert Conformal Conic, Unit: International Feet, Datum: North Basemap Data: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner, Figure 6: These profiles depict the expected maximum tsunami wave elevation for the five “tsunami t-shirts scenarios” along line A-A' in American Datum 1983 HARN. Graticule shown with geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude). Daniel E. Coe, Mathew A. Tilman How Tsunamis Occur Barview and B-B' in downtown Coos Bay. The tsunami scenarios are modeled to occur at high tide and to account for local subsidence of the ground surface. Map Production: References: Cartography: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 2008, The Uniform California Text: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437 and Editing: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith California Geological Survey Special Report 203 [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/]. Publication: Deborah A. Schueller Priest, G. R., 1995, Explanation of mapping methods and use of the tsunami hazard maps of the Oregon coast, Scale

Oregon Department of Geology and Minerals Industries Open-File Report O-95-67, 95 p. 1:12,000 < Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Wang, K., Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., and Baptista, A.M., 2009, Tsunami hazard Tsunami Wave Height over Time for Simulated Gauge Stations assessment of the northern Oregon coast: a multi-deterministic approach tested at Cannon Beach, Clatsop County, Oregon: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Paper 41, 87 p. Figure 5: Top three charts depict the tsunami waves as they arrive at three selected reference points (simulated gauge stations). They show the change in Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Stimely, L.L., English, J.T., and Ferro, P.A., 2011, wave heights for all five tsunami scenarios over a 4-hour period. The drop in water levels during the first 10 minutes is due to subsidence associated with the Simulating tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake scenarios: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Paper 43, 57 p. earthquake. The model predicts the first tsunami wave will arrive at the entrance to Coos Bay in approximately 20 minutes; waves will continue to occur for up to 8 hours after the earthquake. Wave heights vary through time, and the first wave will not necessarily be the largest as waves interfere and reflect off local Software: Esri ArcGIS® 10.0 topography and bathymetry. For copies of this publication contact: A B C D E Funding: This map was funded under award #NA09NW54670014 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Nature of the Northwest Information Center Administration (NOAA) through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Bottom chart depicts the change in wave height for the XXL tsunami scenario only. Modeled wave heights, arrival times, and wave durations can help 800 NE Oregon Street, #28, Ste. 965 Figure 2: The North American Plate rides over the Because the two plates are stuck in place at the “locked Eventually the locked zone ruptures and causes a great Displaced and uplifted Pacific Ocean water rushes in all Along the Oregon coast, tsunami waves run up onto the Portland, Oregon 97232 Figure 1: This block diagram depicts the tectonic setting of the region. See Figure 2 for the sequence of emergency response personnel plan for a tsunami. descending Juan de Fuca Plate at a rate of approximately 1.5 zone,” strain builds up over time and the North American earthquake. The sudden slip of the two plates displaces directions. land for several hours. telephone (971) 673-2331 events that occur during a Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust earthquake and tsunami. http://www.naturenw.org inches per year. Plate bulges up. Pacific Ocean water upward and creates a tsunami.