Typhoon Risk in China: Wind or water? 中国的台风灾害: 是风还是雨?

Margaret Joseph Model Product Management

Typhoon Fitow, October 2013 台风菲特, 2013年10月

TYPHOON FITOW – RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL 台风菲特 - 破纪录的雨量

Landfall October 2013 登陆 2013 年10月

Category 2 at landfall 登陆时为第二级

ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 8th Integrated Workshop: Member Report (2013) China

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Typhoon Fitow - Insured loss of ~USD1bn 台风菲特 - 约10亿美元的保险损失 www.news.cn Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Flooding 热带气旋降水驱动的洪水 Precipitation Model

Rainfall-Runoff Model

Riverine Surface Water 河流 地表水

Defence Model Defence Model

Inundation Inundation

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential CAPTURING COMPLETE VIEW OF FLOOD RISK – RIVERINE AND SURFACE Riverine and WATER Riverine Surface Water

Average Annual Loss

Riverine 完整的模拟洪水 Surface Water 风险 河流和内涝 - Residual

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Flooding 热带气旋降水驱动的洪水 Precipitation Model

Rainfall-Runoff Model

Riverine Surface Water 河流 地表水

Defence Model Defence Model

Inundation Inundation

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential 台风威马逊 Landfall July 2014 登陆 2014 年 7 月

Category 4 at landfall 登陆在第四类

Strongest typhoon landfall over in over 60 years 在60年内海南最强的 台风登陆

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential MODELLING TYPHOON RAMMASUN 模拟台风威马逊

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential TYPHOON RAMMASUN 台风威马逊 Landfall July 2014 登陆 2014 年 7 月

Category 4 at landfall 登陆在第四类

Strongest typhoon landfall over Hainan in over 60 years 在60年内海南最强的 台风登陆 http://english.caixin.com/ ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential Flooding Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Flooding

STORM SURGE Precipitation Model MODELLING Storm Surge Model

风暴潮模拟 Rainfall-Runoff Model

The (typhoon) flood model Riverine Surface Water combines inland (tropical 河流 地表水 cyclone precipitation driven) and coastal (surge driven) risk). Defence Model Defence Model Defence Model

台风洪水模型涵盖内陆( Inundation Inundation Inundation 热带气旋导致的强降雨) 和沿海（风暴潮） Stochastic Flood Footprint ©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential STORM SURGE MODELLING

风暴潮模拟

7.2m 5.5m

4.8m

4.7m 4.4m

Mesh for MIKE 21 Flow Model around

©2014 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Confidential STORM SURGE MODELLING

风暴潮模拟

Typhoon 5612 (1956) Peak Surge: 5.02m

Typhoon Joe (1980) Peak Surge: 5.94m

SURGEDAT: http://surge.srcc.lsu.edu/data.html

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