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Tokyo Climate Center 1 No No. 18 Autumn 2009 Contents World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) 1 El Niño Outlook (October 2009 – April 2010) 2 JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Winter 2009/2010 4 Cold-season Outlook for Winter 2009/2010 in Japan 5 Summary of the 2009 Asian Summer Monsoon 7 Status of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in 2009 9 Heavy precipitation in the Philippines and India from late September to early October 9 2009 World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) The World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) was held in links science-based climate predictions and information Geneva, Switzerland, from 31 August to 4 September 2009. with the management of climate-related risks and opportu- WCC-3 was organized by the World Meteorological Or- nities in support of adaptation to climate variability and ganization (WMO) in collaboration with the United Nations change in both developed and developing countries. The Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization WCC-3 body consisted of expert and high-level segments. (UNESCO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the Expert Segment (31 August – 2 September) United Nations (FAO), the International Council for Sci- Some 200 speakers and 1,500 climate scientists and ence (ICSU) and other intergovernmental and non- other experts from climate service providers and user com- governmental partners. Some 2,000 participants (8 from munities reviewed global, sectoral and national needs and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)) from 163 coun- capabilities for the provision and application of climate tries and 59 international organizations attended the event. services, and identified the essential elements of a new The theme of the Conference was Climate Prediction global framework to be elaborated in a Conference State- and Information for Decision Making, and its vision was ment. for an international framework for climate services that At the poster session, Dr. Masaro Saiki, Director- Dr. Masaro Saiki explains the Tokyo Climate Conference Dr. Kiyoharu Takano (middle), Director of JMA’s Climate at the poster session. Prediction Division, serves as theme leader for the Regional Climate Information for Risk Management parallel working session. (Also shown are Dr. Yap Kok Seng, Session Chair and Director-General of the Malaysian Meteorological Department (left) and Dr. Edvin Aldrian of Indonesia’s Meteorological Cli- matological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) (right).) Tokyo Climate Center 1 No. 18 | Autumn 2009 General of the Global Environment and Marine Department High-level Segment (3 – 4 September) of JMA, reported on the Tokyo Climate Conference: Better Heads of state and government in addition to other in- Climate Information for a Safe and Sustainable Society vited dignitaries expressed their views on the proposed held in Tokyo from 6 – 8 July 2009 and organized by JMA global framework for climate services, noted the findings of (please refer to TCC News No. 17 for details). the expert segment of the Conference, and, along with min- Dr. Kiyoharu Takano, Director of JMA’s Climate Pre- isters and other national representatives, adopted a Confer- diction Division, served as a theme leader at one of the ence Declaration calling on WMO and its partner organiza- working parallel sessions titled Regional Climate Informa- tions to implement the proposed framework (the Global tion for Risk Management. After two presentations of Framework for Climate Services) without delay. white papers, the session expressed strong support for the Mr. Kunio Sakurai, Director-General of JMA, said in his strengthening of (1) provider-user partnerships, (2) inte- statement that Japan will make every effort to ensure the grated weather-climate information, (3) regional capacity timely provision of climate information based on observa- building, and (4) observation, monitoring and research. tion and research networks, and to promote their application Ms. Kumi Hayashi, Head of JMA’s Tokyo Climate Cen- for disaster countermeasures, water resource management, ter (TCC), introduced the activities of Regional Climate infrastructure planning and other policy measures by mak- Centers in Asia (i.e., the China Meteorological Administra- ing the most of the knowledge and expertise gained from tion’s Beijing Climate Center and JMA’s TCC) at one of WCC-3 in order to contribute to the development of the the sessions titled Implementing Climate Services: Nations framework. and Regions. (Ryuji Yamada, Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division) Ms. Kumi Hayashi, Head of TCC, gives a presentation on the Mr. Kunio Sakurai, Director-General of JMA, makes a state- activities of Regional Climate Centers in Asia. ment at the High-level Segment. El Niño Outlook (October 2009 – April 2010) El Niño conditions currently prevail, and are likely to continue until boreal winter. Pacific Ocean In September 2009, the SST deviation from a sliding 30-year mean SST averaged over the NINO.3 region was +0.7°C. The five-month running-mean value of NINO.3 SST deviations was +0.7°C for July, and the Southern Oscillation Index for September 2009 was +0.3. In Septem- ber, SSTs were above normal over the whole of the equatorial Pacific (Figures 1 and 3a), and subsurface temperature anomalies were remarkably positive from the western to the central equatorial Pa- cific (Figures 2 and 3b). During Septem- ber, westerly wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific and easterly wind anomalies over the central part were Figure 1 Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (b) SST found in the lower troposphere. anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas in September 2009 Contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The base period for the normal is 1971 – 2000. Tokyo Climate Center 2 No. 18 | Autumn 2009 The subsurface warm waters that had mi- grated from the western to the central equatorial Pacific during August were weakened by east- erly wind anomalies over the central part in September. On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies prevailed over the western equatorial Pacific through September, and warm waters accumulated in western and central parts. These warm waters are expected to migrate eastward and strengthen positive SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the months ahead. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that NINO.3 SST deviations will be above nor- mal during the prediction period (Fig. 4). Considering all the above factors, El Niño conditions currently prevail, and are likely to continue until boreal winter. The SST averaged over the western tropical Pacific (NINO.WEST) region has been near * Figure 2 Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sections of (a) tempera- normal since boreal spring. It is likely that the tures and (b) temperature anomalies in the equatorial Indian and Pacific SST in NINO.WEST will gradually shift to be- Ocean areas for September 2009 low normal in boreal autumn and winter. Contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The base period for the nor- mal is 1979 – 2004. Figure 3 Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and (b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas OHC is defined here as vertical averaged temperatures in the top 300 m. The base periods for the normals are 1971 – 2000 for (a) and 1979 – 2004 for (b). Indian Ocean The SST averaged over the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was slightly above normal* this summer and near normal in September. It is likely that the SST in the IOBW region will be near nor- mal or slightly above normal during boreal autumn and winter. Impacts on the global climate Warmer-than-normal conditions in the northern part of South America in September were consistent with common patterns seen in past El Niño events. (Ichiro Ishikawa, Climate Prediction Division) Figure 4 Outlook of SST deviation for NINO.3 produced by the El Niño prediction model * Normals for NINO.WEST (Eq. – 15°N, 130°E – This figure shows a time series of monthly SST deviations for NINO.3 (5˚N 150°E) and IOBW (20°S – 20°N, 40°E – 100°E) – 5˚S, 150˚W – 90˚W). The thick line with closed circles shows observed are defined as linear extrapolations with respect to a SST deviations, and the boxes show the values produced for the next six sliding 30-year period in order to remove the ef- months by the El Niño prediction model. Each box denotes the range in fects of long-term trends. which the SST deviation is expected to fall with a probability of 70%. Tokyo Climate Center 3 No. 18 | Autumn 2009 JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Winter 2009/2010 In winter 2009/2010, active convection is predicted from averaged over the NINO.3 region) was above normal the central to the eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian (+0.7), indicating the current prevalence of El Niño condi- Ocean, while inactive convection is predicted for the western tions. According to the El Niño outlook, above-normal tropical Pacific. Predicted atmospheric circulation patterns NINO.3 SST deviations are likely to continue during winter in the tropics are generally consistent with the atmospheric 2009/2010. response associated with El Niño conditions. In the mid-high The SST anomalies used in JMA’s seasonal numerical latitudes, the Aleutian Low is predicted to shift eastward and ensemble prediction system are shown in Figure 5. It is the Siberian High is expected to be weaker than normal, indi- predicted that above-normal SST anomalies will continue cating that the winter monsoon in East Asia is likely to be during winter 2009/2010 in most parts of the tropics. Large weaker than normal. positive anomalies were found in the eastern equatorial Pacific in particular, reflecting El Niño conditions. Large 1. Introduction positive anomalies were also found in the tropical Indian This report outlines JMA’s seasonal numerical ensemble Ocean.
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