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Mission Report TWINNING CONTRACT Institutional Capacity Building for the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) and Developing the Legal Framework for Statistics in Egypt EG/07/AA/F106 MISSION REPORT on Workshop on improving quality of economic indicators Component No 7/5.1.11 Mission carried out by Jaroslav Sixta, Czech Statistical Office and Marek Rojicek, Czech Statistical Office Cairo, 25 th – 29 th October 2009 Central Agency for Public Statistics Denmark Mobilisation and Statistics PHARE 2005 Author’s name, address, e-mail: Jaroslav Sixta Czech Statistical Office Na padesatem 81 100 82 Prague 10 Czech Republic Tel. +420 27405 4253 [email protected] Marek Rojicek Czech Statistical Office Na padesatem 81 100 82 Prague 10 Czech Republic Tel. +420 27405 2486 [email protected] Table of contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 4 1. General comments............................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Assessment and results........................................................................................................................................ 5 3. Conclusions and recommendations..................................................................................................................... 7 Annex 1. Terms of Reference ................................................................................................................................. 7 Annex 2. List of participants:................................................................................................................................ 10 List of Abbreviations BC Beneficiary Country BOP Balance of Payments CAPMAS Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics ESA 95 European System of Accounts 1995 EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund IT Information Technology MOED Ministry of Economic Development MEDSTAT EU Statistical Co-operation with Mediterranean Countries MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOF Ministry of Finance MS Member States NA National Accounts NOE Non Observed Economy QNA Quarterly National Accounts ROSC Report on Observance of Standards and Codes SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard SNA 93 System of National Accounts 1993 SUT Supply and Use Tables TOR Terms of Reference USAID United States Agency for International Development Executive Summary This mission was aimed on discussion on economic indicators. The main work of experts on the mission was the presentation and discussion about current situation concerning compilation and dissemination of economic indicators in the Czech Republic and Egypt. MS Experts and Egyptian colleges together came to several conclusions and gave recommendations particularly in improvement of economic indicators. 1. General comments This mission report was prepared within the Egyptian-Danish Twinning Project „Institutional capacity building for the central agency for public mobilisation and statistics”. This twinning project is EG/07/AA/F106. The concrete objectives of the mission were: - Improve the production of economic indicators MS experts followed up the previous missions conclusions in the context of economic indicators with special regard to national accounts. During the mission experts obtained good overview of system of economic indicators compiled by CAPMAS and Ministry of Economic Development and discussed the differences in the methodology and dissemination policy in both countries. The consultants would like to express their thanks to all officials and individuals met for the kind support and valuable information which they received during the stay in Egypt, and which highly facilitated the work of the consultants. 2. Assessment and results Table 1: Mission time schedule Date Subject Participants Sunday Meeting with RTA and component leader and the see the list of participants in 25. 10. 09 relevant staff within CAPMAS and MoED the Annex 2., Determining the agenda for the mission Peter Ottosen General discussion of the purpose and definition of economic indicators. Presentation of the system of economic statistics in the Czech Republic. Monday Presentation of the production and dissemination of see the list of participants in 26. 10. 09 economic indicators in the Czech Republic. the Annex 2., Presentation of interdependencies between national accounts and business statistics (agriculture, industry, construction, trade, transport and other market service). Tuesday Presentation of needs, requests and accessibility of see the list of participants in 27. 10. 09 economic indicators to the users in the Czech Rep. the Annex 2., The production of economic indicators in Egypt (CAPMAS, Ministry of Economic Development) Wednesday Egyptian experts presented the overview of see the list of participants in 28. 10. 09 economic indicators in different industries. the Annex 2., Thursday Final discussions and clarifications jointly with see the list of participants in 29. 10. 09 CAPMAS and National accounts the Annex 2., Presentation of preliminary results and findings Discussion proceeded in the following parts: a.) Main short-term economic indicators; CAPMAS and MoED are compiling wide range of economic indicators, both in the area of business statistics and national accounts. The users have sufficient amount of indicators for various purposes; the indicators are published relatively in time, especially short term indicators (monthly index of production and quarterly GDP estimate in t+45 days). The first estimate of GDP is based mostly on estimation of the economic subjects and next quarter the figures are revised. For individual activities data are available in monthly, quarterly and annual period. Monthly the data on number of tourist and nights spend are available. Quarterly industrial (manufacturing, electricity, oil industry) indicators (number of employees, production, intermediate consumption, wages and salaries, etc.) are published. Data are published 180 days after the reference period. b.) Structural data Presented publication of the Annual national accounts included sector accounts (by institutional sectors and also by activities), sources and uses of GDP and it provides to the users wide range of information. The publication is available 15 months after the reference period. There is a plan to reduce the delay to t + 12 months. Sector accounts are compiled up to non-financial asset account; the last balancing item is therefore net lending/borrowing. The annual publication on agriculture, construction, trade and health were discussed. These publications covered the most important data needed for national accounts. Some financial data are compiled on the basis of business accounting data (balance sheets, income and loss statements). Some indicators are also published in regional breakdown. All figures are in current prices. c.) Quality of data Quality of economic indicators is dependent on the quality of source data. Establishment of the NA unit within CAPMAS should lead to the improvement of the quality of NA indicators. The quality of NA indicators nonetheless depends significantly also on the strict following of the methodology of national accounts based recently on the SNA 93 standard. It needs sufficient number of qualified and experienced staff at the NA department – in this context the current situation at MoED (15 experts) seems to be insufficient. 3. Conclusions and recommendations 1. Economic indicators are accessible to the users but further promotion of electronic form of publication would be useful. A visible progress in this context is a web page of the MoED and CAPMAS. 2. Some of adjustments are currently done, but the system of adjustment of surveyed data ensuring full harmonisation with national accountings standards (SNA 93) would be improved. These adjustments would comprise differences between national and business accountings rules. The given recommendations in previous missions should be followed. 3. Regional accounts represent a very important part of statistics; the CAPMAS should focus on this issue. 4. Deflation of NA indicators should be done within the supply and use framework. 5. Environmental indicators should be published, as well. 6. Consumption of fixed capital in government sector should be estimated in more sophisticated way, perpetual inventory method should be preferred. 7. Sector accounts should be split into sub-sectors in compliance with SNA 1993. 8. Full accumulation account covering nominal holding gains, other changes in volume and financial account should be compiled and published. 9. The CAPMAS, the MoED and the Ministry of Tourism are going to prepare tourist satellite account, it is important to finish it. 10. The CAPMAS should consider reducing the delay in publishing quarterly data, t+70 days would be recommended. 11. Some estimates for the non-surveyed population of private doctors and clinics (financial data) should be done. 12. Shot-term indicators for different services (e.g. education) should be developed (e,g. revenues, wages). 13. The CAPMAS should build up a business register that allows regular sample surveys and grossing up to the total population. The project on unifying identification number of company in different databases is currently in process. This is an important step to business register. 14. The number of NA staff seems insufficient;
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