PARLIAMENTA RY LIBRARY DEPA RTMENT OF PA RLIA MENTA RY SERV ICES RESEARCH NOTE INFORMATION, ANALYSIS 2004–05 A ND ADV ICE FO R THE PA RL IA MENT No. 13, 11 August 2004 The Philippines elections 2004: issues and implications In the Philippines national elections of 10 May 2004, The campaign was focused heavily on the contending President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (in office since 2001) appeals of the major personalities, particularly President secured re-election with a plurality of 40 per cent of the Arroyo and Poe. Although Poe had strong public opinion votes. Pro-Arroyo parties also gained majorities in both poll ratings in early 2004, his appeal rested almost entirely chambers of Congress, the House of Representatives and on his popular image as an incorruptible figure the Senate. The election results, and the six year term in sympathetic to the disadvantaged: his speeches had little office which President Arroyo now has, have raised policy content.3 President Arroyo based her campaign expectations that the Philippines may now have enhanced heavily on her position as an incumbent with superior prospects for productive change and reform. claims in economic management and was supported heavily by the country’s business elite. The President was The new Arroyo administration, however, faces aided greatly by her popular Vice Presidential candidate, a formidable challenges, particularly in confronting nationally-known former television news host, Senator institutional ‘gridlock’, pursuing economic reform and Noli De Castro. Poe ultimately proved unable to sustain seeking to resolve ongoing insurgencies, some with links his early lead amid concerns about his lack of political and to international terrorists. This Research Note reviews the administrative experience.4 outcome and key implications of the elections. The elections of 10 May attracted 35 million voters (a President Arroyo and the 2004 elections participation rate of 81.4 per cent) and were followed by a 5 Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (a former academic and senior prolonged period of hand counting of the ballots. There government official with a doctorate in economics) was were allegations of fraud, especially from supporters of elected to the office of Vice President in the 1998 Poe, although these were contested by the Arroyo camp elections, which saw former film actor and public official and the influential Catholic Church endorsed the 6 Joseph Estrada elected as President. President Estrada was elections. Ultimately, the Congress on 23 June endorsed subject to impeachment proceedings in the Senate in 2000 results which gave Mrs Arroyo a narrow victory with 40 amid allegations of economic mismanagement and per cent (a margin of 1.1 million votes): Poe received 36.5 corruption. The proceedings did not secure majority per cent, Lacson 10.9, Villanueva 6.2, and Roco 5.5 per 7 support in the Senate but after major protest cent. After the Congressional elections, Mrs Arroyo’s demonstrations and a withdrawal of military support allies—the Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan sa Estrada was forced to step down from office and Arroyo Kinabudasan (or ‘K4’, Coalition of Truth and Experience was appointed President in January 2001. Arroyo’s for Tomorrow)—held 14 seats in the 24-member Senate political allies secured majorities in Congress in the May and had won over 70 per cent of seats in the House of 8 2001 mid-term elections but Arroyo herself lacked an Representatives. The opposition KNP coalition electoral mandate. Her administration had difficulties in (Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino—Coalition of pursuing its legislative agenda and also faced a military United Filipinos) led by Senator Edgardo Angara was rebellion in Manila in July 2003. While the rebellion was reduced to a minority status in both houses. quickly rebuffed, it added to the atmosphere of instability 1 While Mrs Arroyo’s allies have a strong position in and uncertainty in Philippines politics. Congress, her margin of victory over Fernando Poe was a Under the 1987 Constitution, Philippines presidents are narrow 3.5 per cent and it has been noted that the permitted a single term of six years but since Mrs Arroyo combined electoral support for the ‘anti-establishment’ was deemed to have continued the term of Joseph Estrada, candidates, Poe and Lacson (both identified with ousted she was eligible to run for re-election in 2004. Mrs Arroyo President Estrada), exceeded that for the ‘pro- at first announced in December 2002 that she would not establishment’ candidates, President Arroyo and Roco. As run for re-election but reversed this position in October a result, it has been argued that President Arroyo ‘… will 2003. In the elections Mrs Arroyo faced four other have to tread carefully to balance pro-poor interests with 9 candidates: Raul Roco (a former Education Secretary), an urgent need to effect painful economic reforms.’ Both Panfilo Lacson (a controversial former police chief during Poe and his vice presidential candidate Senator Loren the Estrada administration), Eduardo Villanueva (an Legarda have launched challenges in the Supreme Court to 10 educator and religious evangelist) and—most the results, a process which could take up to three years. importantly—Fernando Poe Junior (the Philippines most Immediate aftermath popular action film star). Poe had no political experience but had a very wide recognition and appealed to poorer With a narrow victory and some ongoing allegations of Filipinos: he also had considerable support from some fraud from the supporters of Poe, Mrs Arroyo has felt the business elements and from allies of former President need to be cautious in beginning her new term. This was Estrada.2 reflected in her response to the kidnapping on 4 July of a Filipino driver in Iraq, Angelo de la Cruz, whose captors result, Congress has often been highly resistant to demanded the immediate withdrawal of the small 51 proposals for economic and financial reform. The person Filipino humanitarian military contingent. For Economist recently observed that, ‘On the whole, the many Filipinos, de la Cruz was a symbol of the sacrifices Philippines ruling elite shows little interest in levying taxes and potential vulnerability of the 8 million Filipinos who they themselves might have to pay, or providing public work overseas (ten per cent of the population) and whose services they themselves are unlikely to use’.14 The remittances of almost $US8 billion annually provide about electoral system has been another area of difficulty: voters 10 per cent of the country’s GNP. Concerned to maintain are required to write in the names of preferred her domestic support base, President Arroyo agreed to candidates—often for dozens of elected offices—making withdraw the component, despite strong criticism from the vote counting cumbersome, prolonged and open to United States and Australia. The decision has been allegations of tampering.15 popular domestically and has appeared to enhance Proposals for constitutional reform or ‘charter change’ President Arroyo’s credentials as a representative of have been widely discussed and were supported during the poorer Filipinos. 11 2004 campaign by both Arroyo and Poe. One major While the first month of her new term was dominated by proposal is to introduce a parliamentary system. It is the hostage crisis, President Arroyo has also emphasised argued that such a system, with a prime minister chosen other major issues at stake for her government. In her from among the ranks of the parties with the most seats in inaugural address on 30 June, the President set out an the legislature, would provide a more flexible and ambitious ten point program for her six year term in responsive mode of authority and would avoid the current office12: danger of gridlock. Introduction of federalism has also been advocated, to help improve access to resources in • create 6–10 million new jobs and support 3 million 16 new entrepreneurs with loans poorer regions such as the south. • develop one to two million hectares of agribusiness Although the extent of support for change to a land parliamentary system in Congress is not yet clear, the • all school-age children to attend schools with President is widely expected to make strong efforts to push 17 uncrowded classrooms it through. However, there is uncertainty about whether • balance the budget through effective revenue collection such a change would actually be an improvement. It is and spending argued that the Philippines may not be suited to a parliamentary system as it has a weak party system with • expand digital infrastructure to the whole country little voting discipline within either chamber of Congress, • electricity and water to be provided for all barangays where members and senators frequently shift allegiances to (villages) seek power and patronage. If a full scale change to a • ‘decongest’ Metro Manila through decentralised parliamentary system does not eventuate, there are other development measures which might be relevant, including a prohibition • develop the ‘Subic-Clark corridor’ as a competitive on switching between parties in mid-term, public funding service and logistic centre of elections and reduction or abolition of the funds now • computerise the electoral process and ensure its allocated to members and senators which they can integrity distribute personally (and which thus encourages ‘pork- barrelling’). A more efficient, accessible and automated • achieve peace in Mindanao. voting system would also improve the efficiency and The Arroyo administration: key challenges accountability of the system.18 Mrs Arroyo now has the prospect of serving for nine years With her re-election victory and basis for support in as President; the longest term in office for any leader since Congress, President Arroyo has a new opportunity to draw the Marcos years (1965–1986). In pursuing the ambitious more from the existing system while pursuing useful goals she has set out, President Arroyo’s administration reforms to it.