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Population Decline in the Central Region of Russian Federation (1990–2010)

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Population Decline in the Central Region of Russian Federation (1990–2010) p yps Coll. Antropol. 36 (2012) 4: 1101–1108 Original scientific paper Population Decline in the Central Region of Russian Federation (1990–2010) Nadezda I. Grigulevich Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ABSTRACT After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 the mortality reached 1.807.400 people in 1992, with the birthrate fall- ing to 1.587.600 people. The process of depopulation began. Nearly 2 million people died annually in Russia according to the official data of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service in 1993–2010. A special and a very serious problem is a middle-aged men mortality that is 7–8 times higher, than in the developed countries. From 1992 to 2010 in Russia died 40.812.000 people, born – 26.568.000. Total decline amounted to 13.344.000 people. The present study considers some so- cial-economic and ecological processes which promoted the growth of negative indicators in population dynamics. We compared the mortality and decline of the population in different regions of Russia and showed that there is a correla- tion between alcohol mortality and decrease of population. A confessional factor is very important also. The mortality rate is far below the average for the country in those territories of Russia, where the population is predominantly Muslim. The demographic transition in Russia is characterized not only by a drop in fertility, as in the other developed countries, but also by increase in mortality. The mortality is a real indicator of the socio-economic and demographic situation for this or that region of Russia and it should be used by the authorities of different levels in the development of the area. Key words: population decline, life expectancy, dynamics of mortality, birth rate, adaptation, Russia Introduction In demographic processes whose principal character- During 2002–2010 the population of the country de- istics are birthrate decrease and mortality growth sharp creased by 2,2 million people – from 145.166.700 people shifts have been noted in the Russian Federation starting to 142.905.200 people who permanently live in Russia from the 1990s. Mortality grew from 10.4‰ to 15‰ in (with the migration growth concern) according to results 1986–1994. The birthrate fell from 2 to 1.3 children in of the population census in Russia (October 2010)5. But if 1987–1993. The mortality reached 1.807.400 people in we summarize the population decline in Russia from 1992, with the birthrate falling to 1.587.600 people. The 2002 to 2009, according to the FSSS current data, we’ll process of depopulation which was called »the Russian get 5.231.400 people. This discrepancy can be explained cross« began1,2. Nearly 2 million people died annually in by the fact that the data on the population decline are ob- the country according to the official data of the Russian tained from the difference of fertility and mortality, but Federal State Statistics Service (further-FSSS) in 1993– census data also take into account migration flows. We 2010. A special and a very serious problem is a mid- can see a growth of population, 1.2% (up to 38.4 million dle-aged men mortality that is 7–8 times higher, than in people) and 6.3%, (up to 9.49 million people) respectively the developed countries3. The population decline dramat- only in two Federal regions, the Central Federal district ically grew from 1993 to 1995 especially in rural areas4. (further -CFD) and a newly formed (January 19, 2010) Its average value of 861.700 people per year is more than North Caucasian region. The rest of regions demon- four times high than the population decline in 1992. The strated a population decline – Volga region –4% (up to decrease became less significant in 1996–1998, while there 29.9 million), Siberian region – 4% (up to 19.25 million), is another sharp drop with average values of 884.900 NorthWest region –2.8% (up to 13.58 million), Ural re- people per year in 1999– 2005. The loss of population in gion –2,4% (up to 12.08 million), Far East region –6.6% 2010 was 2.396.000 people. The birthrate has been in- (up to 6.29 million), in South region the decline was creasing recently, but it is still less than the mortality. –0.8% (up to 13.85 million). Moscow population grew to Received for publication August 15, 2012 1101 CAs ' ugi !( "( p yps N. I. Grigulevic: Population Decline in Russia, Coll. Antropol. 36 (2012) 4: 1101–1108 11.514 million people (by 10.9%) during 2002–2010. The population of the CFD grew up exclusively at the expense of Moscow, receiving a large number of migrants. Ex- perts remark, that »a situation with a fertility, mortality and a natural increase remains invariable and negative for Russia, in spite of the fact that on the whole, for the last two or three years there has been a progress. The natural increase is still negative, at the level of – 1.8‰«6. In Russia died 40.812.000 people, born – 26.568.000 people from 1992 to 2010. Total decline amounted to 13.344.000 people (Figure 1). The present study considers some so- cial-economic and ecological processes which promoted the growth of negative indicators in population dynam- ics. The fertility and mortality in Russia (1950–2010) Fig. 2. Cadets of the Ñlub of Travelers »Ziud-Vest«. Expedition 3000000 »Volga-2011«. July 2011. Photo N.I. Grigulevich. 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 Milion people 500000 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Fertility Mortality Fig. 1. Dynamics of birth rate and mortality in Russia (1950– 2010) – »The Russian cross«. Data source: FSSS (2011). Materials and Methods I have been spending the field research in rural areas of the Upper and Middle Volga applying methods of oral Fig. 3. Village Beleutovo (Tver region). Expedition »Volga-2011«. history and involved observation for the last 20 years. July 2011. Photo N.I. Grigulevich. This investigation is a part of field research of the Club of Travelers »Ziud-Vest« of Moscow Educational center No. 109. The Club »Ziud-Vest« has been organizing annual comprehensive research in ecological and historical expe- ditions in rural regions of the Upper and Middle Volga since 1990 (Figure 2–4). These studies are conducted un- der the integrated program developed by me which in- cludes the historical, socio-economic, ethnographic and environmental issues. The results of these studies allow us to trace the process of adaptation to the changing socio-economic and environmental life conditions. One of the most important and independent factors of adapta- tion are data on natural movement of population in a given territory which are analyzed in this work. I also used data of the 2010th population census in this study as well as the demographic and socio-economic indexes pre- sented in the official sources of FSSS. Fig. 4. Cadets of the Club »Zuid-Vest« are interviewing old-timer in the village Beleutovo (Tver region). Expedition »Volga-2011«. July 2011. Photo N.I. Grigulevich. Results and Discussion Male life expectancy in Russia was 62.77 years in life expectancy in Russia. Woman in Russia lives 12 years 2009, while female life expectancy was 74.67 with an av- longer than man an average. This gap has been reducing erage life expectancy being 68.7. Thus, Russia is on the over time (in 2005 it was 13.5 years). How can we explain 129th place in the world after Bolivia and Gyana. These such a high level of male mortality in Russia? A share of low rates are a consequence of the extremely low male illegal market of alcohol production in the overall Rus- 1102 CAs % p yps N. I. Grigulevic: Population Decline in Russia, Coll. Antropol. 36 (2012) 4: 1101–1108 TABLE 1 DYNAMICS AND VOLUME OF CONSUMPTION OF PURE ALCOHOL PER CAPITA OF THE POPULATION AT THE AGE OF OVER 15 IN 1994–2002: 1) ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES; 2) PURE ALCOHOL PER YEAR Volume of 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 consumption 1212121212 Per capita 45.9 11.2 43.9 11.0 40.6 9.9 59.5 15.2 67.9 15.4 Including: Per man 89.5 22.5 86.6 22.4 77.0 19.2 116.6 30.6 129.0 30.6 Per woman 11.9 2.3 11.4 2.4 12.9 2.8 17.3 3.8 23.2 4.3 sian market exceeds 30% according to the FSSS. It is pos- Mortality from accidental alcohol poisoning in the sible not only to damage one’s health, but even to die us- RF per year (1990–2010) ing poor-quality, but very cheap alcohol. It led to a sharp 60000 mortality growth, first of all, in male population. Mortal- 50000 ity from casual alcoholic poisoning increased threefold (from 16.100 to 55.500 people) from 1990 to 1994 and 40000 with small fluctuations continues to remain at the same 30000 level. Russia is in the fourth place after Moldova, Czech People 20000 Republic and Hungary respectively in the world alcohol 10000 7 consumption per capita measured in liters of pure alco- 0 hol per year. Croatia takes the eleventh place in the world 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 in the consumption of alcohol per capita. In Russia we The total population have 15.76 liters of alcohol per capita, including 6.88 li- ters of strong alcoholic beverages and 4.73 – unrecorded. Fig. 5. Dynamics of mortality from accidental alcohol poisoning It should be noted, that WHO methodology takes into ac- in Russia (1990–2010).
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