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Survey of Large-Scale Office Building Supply in Tokyo's 23 Wards 2014

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Survey of Large-Scale Office Building Supply in Tokyo's 23 Wards 2014 Survey of Large-scale Oce Building Supply in Tokyo’s 23 wards 2014 June 3,2014 Since 1986, Mori Trust Co., Ltd. (Head Oce: Minato-ku, Tokyo) has surveyed trends in the supply of large-scale oce buildings containing total oce space of 10,000 square meters or more within Tokyo’s 23 wards , based on various published materials, eld surveys, and interviews. The results of the most recent surveys(including the survey of mid-scale oce buildings) are presented below.In the calculation of total oce oor area, where the survey deals with multi-purpose buildings—buildings coupled with stores, living quarters or residences, hotels, etc.—only the oor area purely for oce use is taken into consideration. [Survey Date: December 2013] The supply is expected to remain near past averages Main Results of This Survey １.Supply of large-scale oce buildings In 2013, Tokyo’s 23 wards saw the supply fall to 660,000 square meters, a signicant decline from the average for the past 20 years.The supply in 2014 is expected to be 930,000 square meters, approximately 15% lower than the past average. Annual projections for 2015-17 are at least one million square meters, similar to the past average. ２.Supply trends by area Supply in central Tokyo is expected to further increase during the 2014-17 timeframe: Some 70% of this space will be located in Tokyo’s three central wards. Some 30% of the overall supply is expected to be located in Chiyoda Ward, a consistent leader, followed by Minato Ward, whose share is projected to rise dramatically to more than 20%. Three districts in Minato Ward (Toranomon and Shinbashi; Konan; and Shibakoen and Hamamatsucho) are expected to rise into the list of top ten and take their place. ３.Supply trends by land for development In 2014-17, in Tokyo’s three central wards, some 70% of oce space will be supplied through rebuilding, a high percentage continuously maintained. More and more oce space is being rebuilt on such land not just in Otemachi and Marunouchi, but in Yaesu, Nihonbashi, and Kyobashi. This trend is likely to continue into the future. In contrast, during the same period, in other wards, some 80% of the oce space will be supplied by using undeveloped or underdeveloped land; supply through rebuilding will account for just 20% of the overall gure. ４.Supply of mid-scale oce buildings The year 2013 saw the supply reach 155,000 square meters, signicantly above the past ten-year average. The supply in 2014, however, is expected to fall to 115,000 square meters, and to fall still further to levels below past averages by 2015. In 2014-15, some 80% of this supply will be introduced in Tokyo’s three central wards.Minato Ward, the largest supplier, is expected to account for slightly more than 30%, followed by Chuo Ward and Chiyoda Ward, each accounting for some 20%. Major developers have accounted for a growing share of mid-scale oce buildings over the past several years. For further information, contact: Keiji Kurokawa Research & Planning,Building Leasing Department Mori Trust Co., Ltd. http://www.mori-trust.co.jp Toranomon 2-chome Tower, 3-17 Toranomon 2-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001 JAPAN E-Mail: [email protected] １. Supply of large-scale office buildings In 2013, Tokyo’s 23 wards saw the supply of large-scale office space fall to 660,000 square meters, a significant decline from the average for the past 20 years (1.1 million square meters per year) partly explained by the completion of many large-scale development projects in 2012, particularly rebuilding projects in Otemachi and Marunouchi. In any case, the supply amount was the third lowest during the past 20 years. (Chart 1-1) The supply in 2014 is expected to be 930,000 square meters, approximately 15% lower than the past average. Annual projections for 2015-17 are at least one million square meters, similar to the past average. (Chart 1-1) From 2014 in Tokyo’s three central wards, the supply is expected to be approximately 20% above the past average. For Tokyo’s other wards, this figure is expected to fall short of the past average. (Chart 1-2) As for the supply trends by scale in 2014-17, the supply of large-scale buildings of over 50,000 square meters is expected to increase drastically, accounting for some 80% of the total supply. This would approach record percentages for such space. (Chart 1-3) The future supply will remain at the past average level and will mostly come from highly demanded, very large buildings in the three central Tokyo wards. Thus we may see the supply-demand balance improve slowly but steadily over the next several years. 2 . Supply trends by area Supply in central Tokyo is expected to further increase during the 2014-17 timeframe: Some 70% of this space will be located in Tokyo’s three central wards. Some 30% of the overall supply is expected to be located in Chiyoda Ward, a consistent leader, followed by Minato Ward, whose share is projected to rise dramatically to more than 20%. Additionally, the share held by Shinagawa Ward is expected to rise to 10%, while those of Shinjuku Ward, Shibuya Ward, and Koto Ward will be below 10% .(Chart 2-1) Business districts in Tokyo’s three central wards will be among the leading areas in which new space is introduced. These include Otemachi and Marunouchi; Yaesu, Nihonbashi, and Kyobashi; Akasaka and Roppongi; and Toranomon and Shinbashi. Districts other than the three central wards currently ranking among the top ten business districts in 2010-13 (Nishi-Shinjuku, Nakano, and Rinkai) are expected to drop out of the top ten in 2014-17. Three districts in Minato Ward (Toranomon and Shinbashi; Konan; and Shibakoen and Hamamatsucho) are expected to rise into the list of top ten and take their place. (Chart 2-2) 2/11 【Chart 1-1】Supply trends for large-scale office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 wards Office supply in completed buildings Office supply in buildings under construction Office supply in buildings to be constructed 49 Number of supply 50 43 36 40 33 32 29 29 29 27 26 25 30 29 22 27 20 ㎡ 23 20 (10,000 ) 20 21 19 250 17 16 16 14 14 10 Number of supply 221 0 200 1994-2013 average supply: 1,100,000㎡/year 183 183 162 150 126 119 118 118 119 121 117 106 99 100 93 92 89 90 Supply volume 82 82 74 72 64 66 50 36 0 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 【Chart 1-2】Tokyo’s three central wards and 【Chart 1-3】Supply and ratio by building scale other wards 56% 44% Tokyo’s '94－'98 ㎡ ㎡ three central wards Other wards (630,000 /year) (500,000 /year) 57% 43% 1994-2013 average supply: 1994-2013 average supply: '99－'03 640,000㎡/year 460,000㎡/year (610,000㎡/year) (460,000㎡/year) (10,000㎡) (10,000㎡) － 58% 42% '04 '08 (630,000㎡/year) (460,000㎡/year) 100 100 79 － 62% 38% 76 75 74 '09 '13 (680,000㎡/year) (420,000㎡/year) 64 78% 42 '14－'17 22% 50 50 43 (860,000㎡/year) (240,000㎡/year) 31 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 17 Buildings of 50,000㎡ or larger Buildings of less than 50,000㎡ 0 0 '14 '15 '16 '17 '14 '15 '16 '17 3/11 【Chart 2-1】Supply of large-scale office space by ward ［2010－2013］ ［2014－2017］ Tokyo’s three central wards : Tokyo’s three central wards : 2,420,000㎡（ 53%） 3,040,000㎡（ 70%） Other wards : Other wards : 2,150,000㎡（ 47%） 1,330,000㎡（ 30%） Supply(10,000㎡） Other wards Supply(10,000㎡） Other wards Koto 4% 13% Chiyoda 138 8% Chiyoda 140 Chuo 52 Shinagawa Chuo 59 Koto Chiyoda 10% 14% Minato 52 Minato 30% Shibuya Chiyoda 105 4% 32% Shinjuku 45 Shinjuku 21 Shinagawa Shinjuku Chuo 7% Shibuya 5% 11% 19 Shibuya 19 Minato Chuo Minato 24% 13% Shibuya 11% Shinagawa 30 Shinagawa 42 4% Shinjuku Koto 65 Koto 33 10% Others 56 Others 18 【Chart 2-2】Top ten districts 押上 中野 ［2010－2013］ （10,000㎡） 78 70 （17％） 西新宿 神保町 2010 新宿 小川町 2011 60 番 町 2012 麹 町 2013 平河町 大手町 八重洲 丸の内 50 内幸町 日本橋 霞ヶ関 有楽町 室 町 永田町 98万㎡ 40 26 26 26 東陽町 25 赤坂 24 24 20 木 場 （6％） （6％） （6％） （5％） （5％） （5％） 30 （4％） 17 16 六本木 （4％） （4％） Supply volume 20 豊洲 10 渋谷 月 島 勝どき 宇田川町 芝・三 田 晴 海 0 道玄坂 Otemachi Nishi- Osaki 南平台町Toyosu Jinbocho Yaesu Akasaka Nakano Rinkai Shinjuku marunouchi Shinjuku Gotanda Ogawamachi Nihonbashi Roppongi芝浦 Yurakucho Kyobashi 港南 大 崎 臨海 五反田 （10,000㎡） ［2014－2017］ 60 2014 2015 50 2016 2017 93 40 （21％） 42 34 33 31 23 22 30 （10％） （8％） （8％） （7％） （5％） （5％） 19 18 12 （4％） （4％） （3％） 20 Supply volume 10 0 Otemachi Yaesu Akasaka Osaki Toyosu Toranomon Konan Shibakoen Kojimachi Ichigaya Marunouchi Nihonbashi Roppongi Gotanda Shinbashi Hamamatsu-Hirakawacho Yurakucho Kyobashi cho Kioicho Rank 1（1） 2（6） 3（7） 4（3） 5（4） 6（－） 7（－） 8（－） 9（－） 10（－） （ ） for previous timeframe 4/11 【Chart 2-3】Supply volume in the key business districts ［2010－2013］ Oshiage Nakano Chiyoda Ward Shinjuku Jinbocho Nishi-Shinjuku Kojimachi Ogawamachi Hirakawacho Muromachi Kioicho Otemachi Honcho Yoyogi Marunouchi Yurakucho Yaesu Nihonbashi Uchisaiwaicho Kyobashi Kasumigaseki Nagatacho Chuo Ward Ginza Jinnan Akasaka Toranomon Toyocho Udagawacho Roppongi Shinbashi Toyosu Dogenzaka Shibuya Tsukishima Kachidoki Minato Ward Harumi Approx.supply volume Meguro Konan Kamiosaki ：400,000㎡～ ：200,000㎡～400,000㎡ Osaki Gotanda Rinkai ：100,000㎡～200,000㎡ ： 50,000㎡～100,000㎡ ［2014－2017］ Okubo Ichigaya Iidabashi Kudan Jinbocho Fujimi Ogawamachi Sendagaya Kojimachi Muromachi Jingumae Hirakawacho Honcho Kioicho Otemachi Marunouchi Yurakucho Yaesu Nihonbashi Chiyoda Ward Kyobashi Chuo Ward Ginza Akasaka Roppongi Toranomon Shinbashi Toyosu Shibakoen Hamamatsucho Minato Ward Approx.supply volume Meguro Kamiosaki Konan ：400,000㎡～ Osaki ：200,000㎡～400,000㎡ Gotanda ：100,000㎡～200,000㎡ ： 50,000㎡～100,000㎡ 5/11 3.
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