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Research Report 3 - Severn Barrage

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Research Report 3 - Severn Barrage Tidal Power in the UK Research Report 3 - Severn barrage proposals An evidence-based report by Black & Veatch for the Sustainable Development Commission October 2007 Tidal Power in the UK Research Report 3 – Review of Severn Barrage Proposals Final Report July 2007 In association with ABPmer, IPA Consulting Ltd., Econnect Consulting Ltd., Clive Baker, and Graham Sinden (Environmental Change Institute) Sustainable Development Commission Review of Severn Barrage Proposals REVIEW OF SEVERN BARRAGE PROPOSALS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This evidence-based report has been prepared for the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC) as research report 3 to support and inform the SDC’s Tidal Power in the UK project. Background Following an introduction to the importance of the Severn estuary, an overview is provided of the extensive studies carried out on the Severn estuary mainly over the last 25 years covering both single basin and two-basin barrage schemes. The studies have shown consistently that tidal power schemes requiring long lengths of embankment (two-basin schemes) result in significantly higher unit costs of energy than equivalent schemes where length of embankment is kept to a minimum. The study considers two schemes for more detailed analysis as follows: • The Cardiff-Weston barrage, as developed and promoted by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG) and located between Cardiff, Wales and Weston-super-Mare, Somerset, South West England • The Shoots barrage (formerly the English Stones barrage) as presently proposed by Parsons Brinkerhoff (PB) and located just downstream of the second Severn crossing Studies using various models have shown ebb generation is the preferred mode of operation at the Shoots barrage sites and ebb generation with flood pumping optimises energy output at Cardiff- Weston providing about 3% more energy output than simple ebb generation. There are two large-scale tidal barrages in operation at present: • The 240MW barrage on La Rance, near St. Malo on the Brittany coast • The 20MW Annapolis Royal tidal power plant on an inlet to the Bay of Fundy, Nova Scotia The Rance barrage was commissioned in 1966 after a six-year construction period. Following some initial issues with generator fixings which were repaired without great difficulty, the barrage has operated successfully for 40 years, confirming the reliability of well-designed marine concrete and the operation of the bulb turbines (favoured by STPG for Cardiff-Weston). Operation has also shown that one-way ebb generation is generally preferable to two-way ebb and flood flow generation (as shown by the UK studies). The much smaller Annapolis Royal scheme, commissioned in 1984, has provided operational experience of the more compact Straflo (straight flow) turbine design favoured by PB for the Shoots barrage. After commissioning, there were some problems with rotor seals. This was resolved and otherwise, high reliability has been reported. Technology Chapter 4 of the report reviews in detail the technological aspects of the two Severn schemes (Cardiff-Weston and Shoots) covering design and construction. The key components of both barrages (powerhouses, sluices and ship-locks) would be constructed in suitable work-yards in the dry, floated to site and carefully sunk into position. Reinforced concrete is the preferred construction material. For Cardiff-Weston, each turbine caisson would house four 9m diameter bulb turbines that would generate on ebb flow but would also pump from the sea into the basin at high tide to maximise energy output. For Shoots, each turbine caisson would house two 7.6m diameter Straflo turbines that would generate on ebb flow. Both schemes also include caissons for Final Report – Rev. 3 Page 2 of 250 20070912Black___Veatch_report_3Final.doc Sustainable Development Commission Review of Severn Barrage Proposals sluices, plain caissons, ship-locks and lengths of embankment to connect the main parts of the barrage to the shore. The sluices on the Shoots proposal are set at a higher level to try to mitigate the risk of basin siltation. STPG considers that the Cardiff-Weston scheme could be constructed in 7, 6 or even 5 years depending on the number of work-yards producing caissons and the size of the ship-lock required. PB considers that the much smaller Shoots barrage could be constructed, ready for commissioning, in about 4 years. Based on various modelling studies, the average annual energy output of the two schemes is estimated as 17TWh and 2.75TWh respectively. Using the present standard value of carbon savings for electricity generated by non-thermal plant of 0.43kg/kWh, the annual and nominal lifetime (120 years) carbon savings (expressed as CO2) for the two barrages are shown below: Annual energy Annual carbon Lifetime carbon (TWh) saving (Mt of CO2) saving (Mt of CO2) Cardiff-Weston 17 7.3 877 barrage The Shoots barrage 2.75 1.18 142 Both structures would provide significant benefit in terms of flood protection against storm surges in the upstream basin. This benefit would increase as sea level rises with climate change but would be lost if the barrage was decommissioned. Tidal barrages would not be compatible with tidal lagoons in the Severn. Of the four large areas suitable for tidal lagoons, only Bridgwater Bay could remain as a viable option, although a barrage at Cardiff-Weston would reduce its output by 20%. Tidal current devices would not be viable within the upstream basin of a barrage. Devices downstream of a barrage would experience some reduction in power output, ranging from about 30% just downstream of the barrage to a small percentage further seawards. Conditions in the Bristol Channel should remain suitable for tidal current devices. Economics and grid implications For the Cardiff-Weston and Shoots barrages, detailed estimates of costs were last prepared in 1988 and 1990 respectively. Escalation indices have been compared and costs updated using the All New Construction Output Price Index (COPI). The total construction cost estimates for Cardiff- Weston and Shoots are now about £15,000M and £1,500M respectively. These figures include estimates for transmission, control and reinforcement off-barrage. Construction of the Cardiff- Weston barrage would take 7 years, although this might be reduced to 5 years, depending on the size of the ship-lock to be provided and the number of work yards used to produce caissons. A 4 year construction programme is envisaged for the Shoots barrage. The barrages would provide a variable but highly predictable electricity supply to the grid. The current planned network should have enough capacity for a barrage of the size of Shoots without requiring significant network reinforcements. The much larger Cardiff-Weston barrage would have a significant effect on the wider transmission system requiring more detailed study. A split connection sharing capacity between the transmission network on the north and south sides of the estuary is likely to be needed. Also, network modifications may be required to channel the majority of the generated energy to service the loads currently supplied by the French inter- connector. The table below shows the estimated unit costs of the two barrage schemes with a repayment period of 40 years; the figures in brackets show the percentage increase compared to the repayment over the nominal 120 year life of the schemes. The costs are greater than conventional Final Report – Rev. 3 Page 3 of 250 20070912Black___Veatch_report_3Final.doc Sustainable Development Commission Review of Severn Barrage Proposals and established renewable energy technologies but of a similar order as less established renewable options. Sensitivity Tests (p/kWh) (Real) 3.50% 8% 10% 15% Cardiff-Weston 5 year programme 4.57 (28%) 8.93 (5%) 11.43 (2%) 19.15 (0.3%) Cardiff-Weston 7 year programme 4.72 (28%) 9.67 (5%) 12.64 (2%) 22.39 (0.4%) Shoots Mid case 4.03 (22%) 7.08 (4%) 8.79 (2%) 13.92 (0.4%) There have been no detailed studies of decommissioning a tidal power barrage. As noted above, decommissioning would remove the benefits of flood control. Costs are highly uncertain but could be substantial (of the same order as constructions costs). Financing these over the lifetime of a barrage at even a low rate of assumed fund accumulation would make such costs potentially quite small. There have been several studies of financing tidal barrage projects, the latest being prepared by STPG for ETSU in 2002. This report concluded that it is possible to envisage the Cardiff-Weston scheme being financed by the private sector, subject to Government policy instruments necessary to achieve the long-term security of supply contracts and with capital grants to recognise the value of non-energy benefits. There may be sufficient private sector appetite for smaller Shoots barrage without Government intervention. Environmental impacts and policy framework Chapter 6 describes the main features of the marine environmental legislation and policies relevant to the barrage proposals. Potential impacts of the two proposals are evaluated in terms of water levels and currents, sediment regime, morphology, water quality, ecology, archaeology and visual assessment. Assessments draw on recent work undertaken for the EA to develop a coastal habitat management plan (CHaMP) for the Severn estuary particularly in terms of sea level rise and climate change. The promotion of either barrage option would require compliance with a wide range of environmental legislation and policy. Some of these requirements are likely to change in the coming years and new requirements may be added, for example, through the proposed Marine Act. The environment in and around the Severn Estuary is of special importance for nature conservation. This has been recognised through the many nature conservation designations that are in force and/or proposed for the area. The scale of environmental changes that would be introduced by either barrage option would also be very large. Given these major changes and the environmental importance of the area, there would need to be a very strong justification for any barrage proposal if the case for development is to override the importance of maintaining the nature conservation and wider environmental interests.
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