Running on Fumes Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2019

Marin Lessenski

Open Institute – Sofia

August 2020

The Catch-Up Index 2019

About EuPI The European Policy Initiative (EuPI) of Open Society Institute – Sofia Foundation aims to contribute to improving the ability of new member states to effectively impact common European policies through good quality research, policy recommendations, networking and advocacy. The initiative operates in the eleven new member states from CEE through a network of experts and policy institutes.

Web-site http://www.osis.bg Web-site: http://www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

About the report The report “Running on Fumes: Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2019" presents the findings of the European Catch-Up Index project of the European Policies Initiative (EuPI) of Open Society Institute - Sofia Foundation (OSI-Sofia) supported by a grant from Open Society Foundations (OSFs). This product is for non-commercial use only. The views expressed in the report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of OSI-Sofia or OSFs.

© OSI-Sofia, August 2020

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Contents About Index 2019 ...... 6 Running on Fumes: Index 2019 Highlights ...... 9 Categories, scores and ranks: About the methodology approach ...... 13 Clusters and Ranking by Overall Score in Index 2019 ...... 14 About the cluster analysis ...... 16 Clusters and Ranking in in Index 2019 ...... 17 Clusters and Ranking in Quality of Life in Index 2019 ...... 20 Clusters and Ranking in in Index 2019 ...... 22 Clusters and Ranking in Governance in Index 2019 ...... 24 Trends: Changes in Scores and Ranks between 2011-2019 ...... 26 The Moving Train Analogy: Tired, but Probably Still True ...... 26 Trends by Overall Performance between 2011 and 2019 ...... 26 Trends in Economy between 2011 and 2019 ...... 28 Trends in Quality of Life between 2011 and 2019 ...... 29 Trends in Democracy between 2011 and 2019 ...... 30 Trends in Governance between 2011 and 2019 ...... 32 The ingredients of democracy: Methodology notes ...... 36 The Catching-up of the EU10+1 Countries in Index 2019 ...... 40 Catching-Up of the EU10+1 countries by Overall Score in Index 2019 ...... 40 EU10+1 catching-up by Economy Score ...... 42 Indicators in the Economy Category in Index 2019 ...... 44 EU10+1 Catching-up by Quality of Life Score ...... 49 Indicators in the Quality of Life Category in Index 2019 ...... 50 EU10+1 catching-up by Democracy Score ...... 54 Indicators in the Democracy Category in Index 2019 ...... 56 EU10+1 Catching-up by Governance Score ...... 59 Indicators in the Governance Category in Index 2019 ...... 60 EU10+1 performance by country in the Catch-Up Index 2019 ...... 64 Supplements ...... 67 Supplement I: Country Scores by Indicators and Categories ...... 67

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Supplement II: Country Abbreviations ...... 72 Supplement III: About the Catch Up Index. How is the “Catching-Up” Measured? ...... 73 The Economy category explained: Methodology notes ...... 74 The ingredients of democracy: Methodology notes ...... 76 Quality of Life: Methodology notes ...... 78 Governance category explained: Methodology notes...... 80 Note on data sources, timeframe and replacing missing data ...... 83 Employment as percentage of , age group 15-64 ...... 84 Supplement IV: Methodology of the Statistical Analysis for the Catch-Up Index ...... 89 The European Catch-Up Index Project ...... 94 About EuPI ...... 95

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About Index 20191

The Catch Up Index measures the performance of 35 countries – the EU member states, the candidate and potential candidate countries across four categories - Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance, using 47 basic indicators. There are scores for each category and an Overall Score, composed of the scores for the four categories, based on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest. The standardized scores allow for rankings the countries from 1 to 35, highest to lowest position.

The primary goal of the Catch-Up Index is to measure how the newer EU member states (dubbed EU10+1) from Central and Eastern Europe are catching-up with their counterparts to the West, i.e. the older member states (dubbed EU15+2 as Malta and are included). The candidate countries – CC – and the Potential Candidate Countries – PCC – are also included in the Index. It is easier to track catching-up in the economy, but the Index methodology allows for comparing the convergence in additional, important areas of development. In short, the Index attempts to measure the “average European levels” that the countries and citizens in the newer member states aspire to reach. The Index results can serve the broader purpose of assessing the processes of convergence and divergence in Europe across the four categories and the multiple indicators, compare countries and groups of countries and look for relationships between different factors.

This is the ninth edition of the Catch-Up Index, with the first report released in 2011 and published every year. This allows for multi-year comparisons and registering longer term trends. As the current Index is based mostly on data released in 2019 with the latest available, but not later than 31 January 2020, it is referred to as “Index 2019” though it is published in 2020 and the name convention has been applied for all previous editions of the Index.

The data used in the Index 2019 encompass the period before the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, which started in early 2020. Therefore, the Index 2019 data and findings in this report describe the situation on the European continent before the Covid-19 , economic and social crisis.

The Index uses the term “new member states” to designate the countries of CEE that joined the EU with the fifth wave of enlargement in 2004 and 2007 and , which joined in 2013. Despite that there is considerable amount of time passed and many countries object being called “new”, there are still common characteristics and trends of these countries as a group that make studying their experience valuable. After all, the Pont Neuf in Paris still retains its name - “new bridge” - despite being completed in 1606.

It should also be noted that the Catch-Up Index registers performance on per capita basis, thus eliminating the size of a country (or the overall country GDP) as a factor. In case the countries have

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The Catch-Up Index 2019 substantial intra-regional differences, they are not taken into account as it is the country average and per capita that matter in this case. The Index does not register internal country regional differences due to methodological and technical complexity, although that was considered when initially designing the Index.

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Catch-Up Index 2019 Overall Economy Quality of Life Democracy Governance Overall Score Ranking Group Country Score (100-0) Score (100-0) Score (100-0) Score (100-0) (100-0) (1-35) EU15+2 70 67 74 72 71 1 EU15+2 68 68 73 72 70 2 EU15+2 Luxembourg 73 66 69 72 70 3 EU15+2 68 69 72 71 70 4 EU15+2 60 70 75 73 69 5 PCC Iceland 63 69 70 70 68 6 EU15+2 Ireland 70 66 68 66 67 7 EU15+2 65 66 64 67 65 8 EU15+2 62 65 62 68 64 9 EU15+2 UK 61 63 59 63 62 10 EU15+2 55 66 62 59 60 11 EU15+2 55 63 57 59 58 12 EU10+1 57 54 61 57 57 13 EU10+1 55 57 53 57 55 14 EU10+1 51 59 53 56 55 15 EU15+2 Malta 58 51 54 55 54 16 EU15+2 42 50 61 61 54 17 EU15+2 48 54 54 52 52 18 EU15+2 Cyprus 48 55 49 51 51 19 EU10+1 53 47 52 47 50 20 EU10+1 47 48 49 47 48 21 EU10+1 51 42 51 45 47 22 EU10+1 46 51 45 46 47 23 EU15+2 41 51 51 43 46 24 EU10+1 44 41 36 43 41 25 EU10+1 Croatia 40 42 38 41 40 26 EU15+2 32 44 42 38 39 27 EU10+1 42 30 38 34 36 28 EU10+1 40 29 35 38 36 29 CC Montenegro 31 31 28 29 30 30 CC 31 28 30 27 29 31 CC 27 23 27 25 25 32 CC 34 17 22 25 25 33 CC 37 29 11 13 22 34 PCC BiH 22 21 18 12 18 35 *Legend EU15+2 The fifteen old EU member states and Cyprus and Malta EU10+1 The new EU member states from CEE and Croatia, which joined in 2004, 2007 and 2013 CC EU Candidate Countries PCC EU Potential Candidate Countries **The ranking is based on the Index 2019 Overall Scores. The scores are from 100 to 0, highest to lowest. The ranking is from 1 to 35, highest to lowest position. The groups of countries are: the EU15+2 are the fifteen old EU member states and Cyprus and Malta; the EU10+1 are the new EU member states from CEE and Croatia, which joined in 2004, 2007 and 2013. The candidate countries are designated as CC and the PCC are the potential candidate countries. 8 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

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Running on Fumes: Index 2019 Highlights

 The top five performers in Index 2019 by overall scores are Denmark (1st place out of 35 with 71 points out of 100), Sweden (2nd with 70 points), Luxembourg (3rd with 70 points), the Netherlands (4th with 70 points) and Finland (5th with 69 points) in the ranking of 35 countries in on a scale from 100 to 0 points, highest to lowest.  At the bottom of the ranking by overall score are (35th place with 18 points), Turkey (34th with 22 points), North Macedonia (33rd with 25 points), Albania (32nd with 25 points), Serbia (31st with 29 points).  Index 2019 shows a gap between the best performers in the Northern and Western Europe and those lagging behind in the Southeast of the continent.  And while many East-West and North-South divides still persist, the index 2019 shows that they should not be always taken for granted. The catching-up process has allowed a number of EU10+1 countries to perform on par or even outperform a number of older member states. The Southern European states still have very good Quality of Life indicators and mostly solid results in Democracy and Governance, despite reversals in recent years.  It seems that the catching-up of the EU10+1 was most dynamic when compared to the 2011- 2014 period, after which the process slowed down or was reversed for some countries, hence the title “Running on Fumes” of this report.

. A trio of EU10+1 countries – Estonia, Czech Republic and Slovenia – is showcasing the catching-up process as they are closest to the desired average benchmarks of the EU15+2 countries and outperform the rest of the new member states. . In the overall ranking, Estonia is on 13th position out of 35 countries with 57 points on a 0 to 100 scale (lowest to highest), followed by the Czech Republic (14th) and Slovenia (15th) each with 55 points.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

. Estonia excels among the other EU10+1 states as it climbed from 18th in the overall ranking in 2011 to 13th position 2019 and is now 12th out of 35 countries in both the Economy and Democracy categories, while Slovenia performs better in Quality of Life (13th position) and the Czech Republic in Governance (14th position) as they are closest to the desired average benchmarks. . The year on year country developments in the index are as a rule incremental, but the long-term comparisons between the first edition and the latest 2019 edition show the levels of change, with Estonia’s climbing up the ranking from 18th to 13th place as a case in point. . But while Index 2019 shows the trajectory of the new EU member states convergence with the rest, there are already cases of divergence of some countries indicated in the categories of Democracy and Governance. . In Democracy, Hungary witnessed a significant drop of 6 positions and 15 score points in comparison to 2011 and lands on 28th position out of 35 in Index 2019, while Poland dropped by six positions compared to 2012 and slid to 24th position in 2019. Both countries lost 2 positions each in the Governance rankings compared to 2011 and the next several years. . This indicates that the catching-up paradigm may be changing as some political parties on power started to reject emulating their “Western” counterparts, at least in democracy and governance.

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. The EU10+1 as a group are still far from the best performers of the EU15+2 and their average scores are closest to the average benchmarks in the Economy and further away, but equally distant to the average scores in Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance. . This may be partly due to the fact that catching-up in the Economy has been relatively easier than in translating this into a success in other complex system and partly due to decision of certain governments to decouple the catching-up categories with reversals in democracy or governance. . The new EU member states still differ in many respects from the EU15+2, but at the same time make up a diverse group themselves. For example, Slovakia (1st among 35 countries), Slovenia (2nd) and the Czech Republic (3rd) are the least unequal countries among the 35 countries according to the Gini indicator. But Bulgaria (34th out of 35 countries), Lithuania (33rd), and Latvia (30th) are among the most unequal countries. . The cluster analysis divides the countries into groups with similar characteristics and provides another perspective of the Index 2019. The EU10+1 countries are not represented in the best performing clusters in the Economy category, there only one new EU member state represented in best scoring Democracy clusters and fare slightly better in Quality of Life and Governance top clusters with three CEE countries in each of them.

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. There are clear geographic patterns as shown in the cluster map by overall scores: all countries in the clusters four to six are exclusively concentrated on the Balkans or around it, while no country from this region is in the better performing clusters one to three. This creates a picture of the dividing lines in Europe between the Balkans and the rest. . The comparison between clusters in the Index 2011 and Index 2019 by overall score shows that the new member states as a whole have “graduated” to the better performing clusters, catching-up with a number of EU15+2 countries and leaving the last two clusters to the EU candidate countries in Southeastern Europe. . The analyses show that there seems to be geographic and time patterns in the Catch-Up Index dynamics. For example, the top clusters consist of best performing countries in Western core and Northern Europe while the last two clusters consist of the candidate countries located in Southeastern Europe, which are falling behind. . Furthermore, the trends in the ranking and scores shows that the catching-up and the changes were most dynamic from 2011 to the 2014-2016 period, after which there is a slowdown of the process. The changes in the period 2011-2019 happen mostly within the EU10+1 group, compared to the EU15+2 of old member states and the EU candidate countries.

The Catch-Up Index: Changes by Overall Scores 2011 - 2019 Overall Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank change Rank change Rank change Rank change Rank change Rank change Rank change Rank change Group Country Score Overall change vs change vs change vs change vs change vs change vs change vs change vs vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2019 Rank 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 EU10+1 Bulgaria 36 29 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 EU10+1 Croatia 40 26 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 1 3 EU10+1 Estonia 57 13 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 EU10+1 Hungary 41 25 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 EU10+1 Latvia 47 22 -1 0 1 0 3 5 7 6 -1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 EU10+1 Lithuania 50 20 1 0 0 1 2 3 6 5 0 -1 0 -1 2 2 4 4 EU10+1 Poland 47 23 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 EU10+1 Romania 36 28 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 1 3 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 0 1 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 21 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -2 0 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 55 15 1 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2

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Categories, scores and ranks: About the methodology approach

The Catch-Up Index model is simple and is designed to assess the performance of the selected countries across the four categories. ECONOMY Each country is ascribed a score in each category, and the Overall Score is the average of those in the four categories combined. The countries are then ranked according to that score. Performance in OVERALL QUALITY the broad categories is assessed on the basis of indicators and sub- GOVERNANCE SCORE OF LIFE indicators, each having a different weight assigned to it, depending on its importance in the Catch-Up Index model. The raw data from different sources is standardized on a scale of 0 to 100 points, so DEMOCRACY that comparisons or other processing of scores can be made between countries, categories and indicators. The countries’ performance is measured relative to each another and not to external targets, because the standardization method assigns the highest score to the best performing country and vice versa. As mentioned above, the scores run on a scale from 0 (lowest) to 100 (highest), while the ranks range from 1 (highest) to 35 (lowest) – the number of countries included in the Index. The EU member states are divided into four main groups – the EU10+1 and the EU15+2, the CC – candidate countries and PCC – the potential candidate countries. The EU10+1 group includes the ten post-communist countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which joined in 2004, 2007 and Croatia in 2013. The other, the control group is the EU15+2 – the older member states plus Cyprus and Malta, which also joined in 2004 but come from a different context and path of development, and thus are closer in characteristics to the older EU members. The model uses a set of several yardsticks - or benchmarks – against which to assess the progress or lagging of the EU10+1 in meeting the standards of the rest of the EU. The benchmarks can be considered to be targets for the EU10+1. The Index takes as its main benchmark the “EU15+2 Average”, which is the mean of the scores of these countries in a given category or indicator as a component of the overall score. The average (or mean of the scores) was preferred to the median (the “middle number” in a range of scores in this case) for a number of practical reasons. The “EU15+2 Average” is a group score and does not correspond to a specific country. Sometimes, the median is also used and the corresponding score can be associated with a particular country. The other two important benchmarks are the “EU15+2 Maximum”, which is the highest score in the group and the “EU15+2 Minimum”, which is the lowest score in the EU15+2 group. Both the maximum and the minimum score can be associated with a respective country. Once the “maximum”, “average” and “minimum” are established and the countries are ranked according to their score, it can be easily observed if a particular country is above, below or near any of these benchmarks and how near or far it is to the target. Other group scores – “average” for the EU10+1, the candidates or potential candidates – can be drawn depending on the task of the comparison. The “EU15+2 Average” is the main benchmark, because the maximum may be an unrealistically high target, while setting the minimum – the lowest score – as a goal would have no motivational value.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Clusters and Ranking by Overall Score in Index 2019

The top five performers in Index 2019 Overall Score: Ranking and Clusters 2019 by overall scores are Denmark (1st place nd Overall out of 35 with 71 points), Sweden (2 Overall rd Group Country Score Cluster place, 70 points), Luxembourg (3 Rank 2019 2019 place, 70 points), the Netherlands (4th EU15+2 Denmark 71 1 place, 70 points) and Finland (5th place, EU15+2 Sweden 70 2 69 points). The worst performing EU15+2 Luxembourg 70 3 countries are BiH (35th place with 18 EU15+2 Netherlands 70 4 points), Turkey (34th place, 22 points), EU15+2 Finland 69 5 1 North Macedonia (33rd place, 25 PCC Iceland 68 6 points), Albania (32nd place, 25 points), EU15+2 Ireland 67 7 st EU15+2 Germany 65 8 Serbia (31 place, 29 points). EU15+2 Austria 64 9

EU15+2 UK 62 10 EU15+2 Belgium 60 11 2 EU15+2 France 58 12 EU10+1 Estonia 57 13 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 EU10+1 Slovenia 55 15 EU15+2 Malta 54 16

EU15+2 Portugal 54 17 EU15+2 Spain 52 18 EU15+2 Cyprus 51 19 3 EU10+1 Lithuania 50 20 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 21 EU10+1 Latvia 47 22 EU10+1 Poland 47 23

EU15+2 Italy 46 24 EU10+1 Hungary 41 25 EU10+1 Croatia 40 26 EU15+2 Greece 39 27 4 EU10+1 Romania 36 28 EU10+1 Bulgaria 36 29 CC Montenegro 30 30 5 CC Serbia 29 31 CC Albania 25 32

CC North Macedonia 25 33 6 CC Turkey 22 34 PCC BiH 18 35

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

There are six clusters – groups of countries – with similar characteristics by overall score. The first and second clusters of the best performers are Northwestern and Western countries, which are old EU member states with only Estonia is an exception among them on 13th position with 57 points. The third and fourth clusters are composed of new member states and several old member states from Southern Europe. The fifth and sixth clusters consist of candidate countries.

There are clear geographic patterns in the cluster map by overall scores. All countries in the clusters four to six are exclusively concentrated on the Balkans or around it, while no country from this region is in the better performing clusters one to three. This creates a picture of the dividing lines in Europe between the Balkans and the rest.

The comparison of clusters between the first edition of the index in 2011 and the current one, i.e. Index 2019, provides additional perspective with a number of interesting findings. The first two clusters by overall score consisted of only 19 states in Index 2011, while in Index 2019 they are 24, which means more countries have moved to the better performing groups.

With regard to the catching-up of the new EU members, in Index 2011 the EU10+1 champions – Slovenia (13th position in 2011), the Czech Republic (17th position in 2011) and Estonia (18th position in 2011) were part of just the third cluster and were the only new member states there. But in Index 2019 Estonia moved to the second cluster and already six new member states are part of the third cluster - Czech Republic, Slovenia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Latvia and Poland, moving up the hierarchy of clusters.

In 2011, six of the current new member states were in the “transitional” fourth cluster, situated between the better and worse performing countries, and two others - Romania and Bulgaria - were in

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the fifth cluster. In Index 2019, this fourth transitional cluster has shrunk from 8 to 5 countries. Bulgaria and Romania are already in the fourth cluster together with Hungary, Croatia and Greece and the rest have moved up. Furthermore, in Index 2019 there is no new member state in the fifth and sixth cluster, as they all have moved up to other groups, and there are only EU candidate countries from the Balkans in the last two clusters.

In short, between the Index 2011 and Index 2019, the new member states have “graduated” to the better performing clusters, catching-up with a number of EU15+2 countries and leaving the last two clusters to the EU candidate countries in Southeastern Europe.

About the cluster analysis The cluster analysis divides countries in the Catch-Up Index into groups based on shared characteristics. In addition, it also shows the proximity of the clusters to one another, i.e. some clusters are closer to each other and more distant from the rest. The clusters are also hierarchical, with better performing countries in clusters of higher order.

The findings of the cluster analysis reveal divisions in Europe along the lines of shared characteristics as identified by the indicators of the Catch-Up Index. This “Europe” is different from the one that is usually perceived to be divided along political lines and by legal arrangements.

The findings of the cluster analysis provide an alternative narrative about the divergence and convergence processes in Europe. It can be argued that countries within one cluster or those clusters in closer proximity are more likely to forge common approaches or policies even if they have disagreements in the short term. Thus the cluster analysis shows a more “organic Europe” - a snapshot of similarity and dissimilarity, based on characteristics of countries, not political agreements or legally bindings. This allows to better track the processes of convergence and divergence on the continent.

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Clusters and Ranking in Economy in Index 2019

The top performers in the Economy category are Luxembourg (1st place with 73 points), Denmark (2nd place with 70 points), Ireland (3rd place with 70 points), the Netherlands (4th place with 68 points) and Sweden (5th place with 68 points). At the bottom of the Economy ranking are BiH (35th place with 22 points), Albania (34th place with 27 points), Serbia (33rd place with 31 points), Montenegro (32nd place with 31 points) and Greece (31st place with 32 points).

Among the EU10+1 countries, the top performer is Estonia on 12th place with 57 points, positioned between Malta and France, the Czech Republic is 14th place with 55 points and Lithuania – 16th place with 53 points.

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With regard to clusters, the top five countries are in the first cluster, the next five in the second cluster and all of them are Northwestern and Western European countries. The third cluster and fourth cluster are a mix of new member states and old, mostly – in the third cluster countries between 11th and 18th place, five out of eight countries are new member states and the fourth cluster in which six out of ten countries (19th to 28th position) are also part of the group of new member states. In the fifth and six clusters are the candidate countries and Greece, which still is experiencing problems, despite its substantial advantage in terms of GDP.

The comparison between the distribution and composition of clusters between the 2011 and 2019 editions of the index in the Economy category shows several changes, having in mind that in 2011 there were five clusters altogether and six in 2019.

While the number of countries in the first cluster remains unchanged, there are fewer countries in the second cluster in 2019 – only five compared to ten in 2011. I.e. the number of best performers has decreased.

With regard to catching-up, Slovenia used to be in the second cluster in 2011, but moved down to the third cluster in 2019 and there are no new EU member states in the first two clusters in the current index. This third cluster in both 2011 and 2019 contains a number of new EU member states – four in 2011 and five in 2019.

The fourth cluster in 2011 and in 2019 contained six current EU new member states in each case (having in mind Croatia was still a EU candidate in 2011). But in 2019, the fourth “transitional” cluster have

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The Catch-Up Index 2019 enlarged and contains more old EU new member states – Cyprus, Spain, Portugal and Italy compared to 2011, when there was only Greece which downgraded to the fifth cluster in 2019.

In regard to the last clusters, there is no substantial change in their composition. In 2011 the last cluster (fifth at the time) consisted of only candidate and potential candidate countries and in 2019 it was split into fifth and sixth cluster one and BiH and Albania moving to the sixth. It was only Greece that was downgraded from the forth cluster in 2011 to the fifth one in 2019.

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Clusters and Ranking in Quality of Life in Index 2019

Quality of Life Scores: Ranking and Clusters 2019 The top performance in Quality of Life Score are Finland (1st place with 70 points), Group Country Rank 2019 Cluster 2019 Iceland (2nd place, 69 points), the EU15+2 Finland 70 1 Netherlands (3rd place, 69 points), PCC Iceland 69 2 Sweden (4th place, 68 points) and EU15+2 Netherlands 69 3 Denmark (5th place, 67 points). At the EU15+2 Sweden 68 4 bottom of the ranking are North EU15+2 Denmark 67 5 Macedonia (35th place with 17 points), EU15+2 Belgium 66 6 th rd 1 BiH (34 place, 21 points), Albania (33 EU15+2 Luxembourg 66 7 nd place, 23 points), Serbia (32 place, 28 EU15+2 Ireland 66 8 points), Turkey (31st place, 29 points). EU15+2 Germany 66 9 EU15+2 Austria 65 10 EU15+2 UK 63 11 EU15+2 France 63 12 EU10+1 Slovenia 59 13 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 2 EU15+2 Cyprus 55 15 EU10+1 Estonia 54 16 EU15+2 Spain 54 17 EU15+2 Italy 51 18 EU10+1 Poland 51 19 EU15+2 Malta 51 20 3 EU15+2 Portugal 50 21 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 22 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 23 EU15+2 Greece 44 24 EU10+1 Croatia 42 25 4 EU10+1 Latvia 42 26 EU10+1 Hungary 41 27

CC Montenegro 31 28 EU10+1 Romania 30 29 EU10+1 Bulgaria 29 30 5 CC Turkey 29 31 CC Serbia 28 32

CC Albania 23 33 PCC BiH 21 34 6 CC North Macedonia 17 35

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The first and second clusters, which consist of the best performers, is comprised of 17 countries. All of them - except for three countries - are mainly Northwestern and Western European countries. Slovenia (13th, 59 points), the Czech Republic (14th, 57 points) and Estonia (16th, 54 points), which are part of the second cluster and the best performing new member states.

In the third and fourth clusters consists of mostly EU10+1 countries. The fifth and sixth clusters are composed of the candidate countries with Bulgaria and Romania among them.

There are a number of differences and similarities in the Quality of Life clusters when the Index 2011 and Index 2019 are compared. Both in 2011 and 2019, the first and second cluster consisted of a large number of countries - 12 in the first cluster and 5 in the second one. However, in 2011 only one new EU member state – Slovenia - made it to the second cluster and there is no EU10+1 country in the first cluster. But in 2019, there were already three EU10+1 countries – Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Estonia – in the second cluster among the best performers.

Within the fourth “transitional” cluster, Slovakia and Poland graduated from the 2011 positions in the fourth cluster to the third one in Index 2019. They were replaced there by Greece and Hungary, which were downgraded from the second cluster and third cluster in 2011 respectively to the fourth one in 2019.

There are changes in the fifth and six clusters too. Four candidate countries and Romania used to be in the last sixth cluster in 2011. But in 2019 the sixth cluster has shrunk leaving Albania, BiH and North Macedonia. Romania and Turkey moved up to the fifth cluster to join Bulgaria, Montenegro and Serbia. Latvia managed to leave the fifth cluster of 2011 to join the fourth cluster in 2019.

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Clusters and Ranking in Democracy in Index 2019

Democracy Scores: Ranking and Clusters 2019 The top performance on Democracy are Finland (1st place with 75 points), Group Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Cluster Denmark (2nd, 74 points), Sweden (3rd, th EU15+2 Finland 75 1 73 points), the Netherlands (4 , 72 th EU15+2 Denmark 74 2 points) and Iceland (5 , 70 points). At EU15+2 Sweden 73 3 the bottom of the Democracy ranking EU15+2 Netherlands 72 4 1 are Turkey (35th, 11 points), BiH (34th, PCC Iceland 70 5 18 points), North Macedonia (33rd, 22 EU15+2 Luxembourg 69 6 points), Albania (32nd, 27 points) and EU15+2 Ireland 68 7 Montenegro (31st, 28 points). EU15+2 Germany 64 8 EU15+2 Austria 62 9 EU15+2 Belgium 62 10

EU15+2 Portugal 61 11 2 EU10+1 Estonia 61 12 EU15+2 UK 59 13 EU15+2 France 57 14 EU15+2 Spain 54 15 EU15+2 Malta 54 16 EU10+1 Slovenia 53 17 EU10+1 Czech Republic 53 18 EU10+1 Lithuania 52 19 3

EU10+1 Latvia 51 20 EU15+2 Italy 51 21 EU15+2 Cyprus 49 22 EU10+1 Slovakia 49 23 EU10+1 Poland 45 24 EU15+2 Greece 42 25 EU10+1 Romania 38 26 4 EU10+1 Croatia 38 27 EU10+1 Hungary 36 28 EU10+1 Bulgaria 35 29 CC Serbia 30 30 CC Montenegro 28 31 5

CC Albania 27 32 CC North Macedonia 22 33 PCC BiH 18 34 6

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The first and second cluster with the best performing countries consists almost exclusively of old member states – from the Northwestern, Western and Southern Europe. Generally, South European countries have poorer performance in the other categories, but in Democracy they perform better than usual. Only Estonia of the new EU member states is in the second cluster – 12thplace with 61 points.

The rest of the CEE countries, save for Estonia, are part of the third and fourth clusters with some old EU member states. In the last two clusters - fifth and sixth cluster - are only candidate countries (with BiH still potential candidate country).

The changes in the Democracy clusters between 2011 and 2019 show the following. The number of countries in the first and second cluster, which consists of the best performers, has increased from ten in 2011 to fourteen in 2019. But only Estonia of the EU10+1 group managed to upgrade to the second cluster in 2019.

The composition of the third cluster is indicative. In 2011, it consisted of twelve countries out of which seven were new EU member states with Poland and Hungary among them. In 2019, the third cluster has shrunk to nine countries with five new EU countries, but both Poland and Hungary are downgraded to the fourth cluster. The fourth “transitional” cluster is quite telling too. It consisted of a mix of old and new member states in 2011, but in 2019 there were mostly EU10+1 countries and Greece. In 2019, this fourth cluster was joined by the downgraded Hungary and Poland and the upgraded Bulgaria and Romania, which moved up from the fifth cluster.

The fifth and sixth clusters experienced change too. In 2011, there were a number of candidate and potential candidate countries and two new EU member states in the fifth cluster – Bulgaria and Romania – which moved to the fourth cluster in 2019. Thus, only candidate countries from the Balkans remained in the last two clusters in Index 2019.

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Clusters and Ranking in Governance in Index 2019

st Governance Scores: Ranking and Clusters 2019 In Governance, the top performers are Finland (1 nd Score place with 73 points), Luxembourg (2 , 72 points), Group Country Rank 2019 Cluster 2019 Denmark (3rd, 72 points), Sweden (4th, 72 points), EU15+2 Finland 73 1 the Netherland (5th, 71 points). At the bottom of the EU15+2 Luxembourg 72 2 ranking are BiH (35th place with 12 points), Turkey EU15+2 Denmark 72 3 (34th place, 13 points), Albania (33rd place, 25 EU15+2 Sweden 72 4 nd EU15+2 Netherlands 71 5 1 points), North Macedonia (32 place, 25 points), PCC Iceland 70 6 Serbia (31st place, 27 points) EU15+2 Austria 68 7 EU15+2 Germany 67 8 EU15+2 Ireland 66 9 EU15+2 UK 63 10 EU15+2 Portugal 61 11 EU15+2 France 59 12 EU15+2 Belgium 59 13 2 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 EU10+1 Estonia 57 15 EU10+1 Slovenia 56 16 EU15+2 Malta 55 17 EU15+2 Spain 52 18 EU15+2 Cyprus 51 19 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 20 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 21 EU10+1 Poland 46 22 3 EU10+1 Latvia 45 23 EU10+1 Hungary 43 24 EU15+2 Italy 43 25 EU10+1 Croatia 41 26 EU15+2 Greece 38 27 EU10+1 Bulgaria 38 28 4

EU10+1 Romania 34 29 CC Montenegro 29 30

CC Serbia 27 31 5 CC North Macedonia 25 32

CC Albania 25 33 CC Turkey 13 34 6 PCC BiH 12 35

The first and second clusters are composed of old EU member states and three new EU member states – Czech Republic (14th place with 57 points), Estonia (15th, 57 points), Slovenia (16th, 56 points), which are 24 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

The Catch-Up Index 2019 also the best performing new member states in the Governance category The third and fourth cluster consists mostly of new member states with four South European counties among them. In the fifth and sixth clusters there are only EU candidate countries

The comparisons between clusters in the Index 2011 and Index 2019 show the following results, having in mind there were five clusters in total in 2011 and six clusters in 2019. In the Governance category, there were five clusters in total in 2011 and six clusters in 2019. The number of countries in the first and second clusters remains the same in 2011 and 2019, but with increase in the second one at the expense of the first one.

In 2011, two new EU member states were in the second cluster – Slovenia and the Czech Republic. In 2019, Estonia joined them too, thus there are three EU10+1 countries in the second cluster now. The third cluster expanded between 2011 and 2019. In 2011, there were five countries in it, four out of which were new EU member states and one old one. In 2019, there are already nine countries in the third cluster with six EU10+1 and three EU15+2 countries.

The fourth “transitional” cluster in 2011 had seven countries, but shrunk to just three in 2019. I.e. in 2011, there were Italy and Greece among several new EU member states, while in 2019 there are only Greece, Bulgaria and Romania remaining in the fourth cluster as the others have moved up to other clusters. The fifth and last cluster of 2011, which consisted only of EU candidate countries have split into two in 2019. Turkey and BiH are in the last sixth cluster and the other candidate countries remaining in the fifth.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Trends: Changes in Scores and Ranks between 2011-2019

The Moving Train Analogy: Tired, but Probably Still True

During the EU enlargement process in the 2000s, the EU was often described as a moving train. The prospective candidates should move quickly too as their EU counterparts were moving ahead too. There is a similar process with the catching-up process too as both old and new member states experience changes over time. The Index is updated annually and since the first edition came out in 2011, based on data mostly from 2009-2010, it allows for registering changes and trends over the years up to the current Index, based on data mostly released in 2019. The section below shows tables with the information about the scores and rankings of the countries by Overall Score and the four different categories – Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance. The changes are presented in terms of differences in both the scores and the positions in the ranking comparative to the all previous editions as differences in points. The color scheme presents positive change in green – increase in score or ranking position, in red are the negative changes with decrease in score or ranking position, yellow denotes no change.

Trends by Overall Performance between 2011 and 2019

Among the EU15-2 countries, improvement can be observed in different proportions in the cases of Cyprus, Denmark, Greece and especially Ireland and Portugal, which can also be traced in the Economy category. This may mean that some of the most affected countries after the 2008 financial crisis have rebounded after the initial shocks. Among the candidate countries, Albania stands out with an upward trend. The other countries either regress or stand still.

It is interesting to note that most of the changes happen in the EU10+1 countries – which is a testimony that a catching-up process has been happening. But there is differentiation between the countries. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been progressing substantially with 5 to 4 positions up the ranking in Index 2019 compared to 2011 and 2012. The Czech Republic and to some extent Romania show progress too. Another notable pattern is that the catching-up generally happens between 2011 and 2014 and then it follows a “flat line”.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The Catch-Up Index: Changes by Overall Scores 2011 - 2019 Score Overall Overall Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank change Group Country change change change change change change change change change change change change change change change Score Rank vs vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2019 2019 2011 EU15+2 Austria 64 9 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 EU15+2 Belgium 60 11 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 EU15+2 Cyprus 51 19 0 2 2 2 2 -1 -4 -4 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -5 -5 EU15+2 Denmark 71 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 2 1 EU15+2 Finland 69 5 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 EU15+2 France 58 12 0 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EU15+2 Germany 65 8 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 EU15+2 Greece 39 27 2 2 3 1 2 1 -2 -5 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 EU15+2 Ireland 67 7 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 3 0 1 2 2 4 3 4 1 EU15+2 Italy 46 24 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 EU15+2 Luxembourg 70 3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 EU15+2 Malta 54 16 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 EU15+2 Netherlands 70 4 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 EU15+2 Portugal 54 17 1 1 3 5 5 5 4 3 0 1 1 4 3 4 2 2 EU15+2 Spain 52 18 0 -1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 EU15+2 Sweden 70 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 EU15+2 UK 62 10 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 EU10+1 Bulgaria 36 29 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 EU10+1 Croatia 40 26 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 1 3 EU10+1 Estonia 57 13 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 EU10+1 Hungary 41 25 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 EU10+1 Latvia 47 22 -1 0 1 0 3 5 7 6 -1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 EU10+1 Lithuania 50 20 1 0 0 1 2 3 6 5 0 -1 0 -1 2 2 4 4 EU10+1 Poland 47 23 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 EU10+1 Romania 36 28 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 1 3 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 0 1 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 21 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -2 0 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 55 15 1 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 CC Albania 25 32 0 0 2 4 4 2 5 5 0 0 1 2 3 2 3 3 CC Montenegro 30 30 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 CC North Macedonia 25 33 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 CC Serbia 29 31 0 0 -1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CC Turkey 22 34 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 PCC BiH 18 35 -1 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 PCC Iceland 68 6 0 2 2 3 3 5 4 3 0 0 0 2 2 3 2 0

Hungary and Poland are among the countries, which regress, but with different dynamics. Hungary’s deterioration can be traced mostly to the period 2011-2013 after which there is a flat line of little change. Poland’s regress starts slowly and accelerates in 2014-2016 slowing down again. Slovenia shows some deterioration, but it stands very high in the ranking.

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Trends in Economy between 2011 and 2019 In the Economy category, the positive trends are visible mostly in the group of the EU10+1 countries. Seven of them, except the four of Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia, show improvement at some point between 2011 and 2019. However, most of the changes in this group occur mostly in the period 2011, 2012 and 2013 in the majority of cases.

Economy: Changes in Ranks and Scores 2011-2019 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank change Group Country change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2019 vs 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2011 EU15+2 Austria 62 8 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 EU15+2 Belgium 55 15 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 EU15+2 Cyprus 48 19 2 5 6 5 5 -1 -6 -7 2 4 4 6 4 -1 -7 -6 EU15+2 Denmark 70 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 EU15+2 Finland 60 10 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -5 EU15+2 France 55 13 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 EU15+2 Germany 65 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 2 3 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 0 1 EU15+2 Greece 32 31 0 1 1 1 0 0 -3 -7 0 1 1 1 1 3 0 -4 EU15+2 Ireland 70 3 0 2 7 9 12 14 14 9 0 1 3 6 8 9 8 6 EU15+2 Italy 41 26 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 -6 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 EU15+2 Luxembourg 73 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EU15+2 Malta 58 11 2 4 3 5 6 11 6 8 2 4 3 4 4 10 6 6 EU15+2 Netherlands 68 4 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 EU15+2 Portugal 42 24 1 1 0 -1 1 0 -2 -6 1 2 2 0 2 2 -1 -5 EU15+2 Spain 48 20 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -7 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -5 EU15+2 Sweden 68 5 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 EU15+2 UK 61 9 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 EU10+1 Bulgaria 40 28 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 EU10+1 Croatia 40 27 0 1 1 0 1 -3 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 1 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 1 0 1 3 3 4 5 6 1 0 1 3 0 2 4 4 EU10+1 Estonia 57 12 0 1 0 1 2 4 6 5 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 4 4 EU10+1 Hungary 44 23 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 3 3 EU10+1 Latvia 51 17 1 0 0 -1 2 4 6 7 0 0 0 -1 0 2 5 6 EU10+1 Lithuania 53 16 0 0 1 0 2 2 5 7 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 3 5 EU10+1 Poland 46 22 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 EU10+1 Romania 42 25 0 0 -1 0 2 2 3 4 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 4 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 21 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 EU10+1 Slovenia 51 18 1 2 2 1 1 -1 -3 -5 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 CC Albania 27 34 -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 CC Montenegro 31 32 0 0 -1 -1 -10 -7 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 -3 0 0 CC North Macedonia 34 30 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 CC Serbia 31 33 2 0 1 3 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 1 1 1 -1 0 -2 CC Turkey 37 29 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 PCC BiH 22 35 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -8 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 PCC Iceland 63 7 0 1 3 6 7 6 9 5 0 0 3 5 5 4 7 3

The positive trends in the Economy category among the EU15+2 countries are few – Cyprus, Malta, Portugal and especially Ireland as well as Iceland (outside of the EU), probably showing a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis. However, Austria, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Italy show deterioration. 28 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

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With regard to the EU candidate countries, most of them do not register substantial change with the exception of Montenegro for a brief period of deterioration followed by a rebound.

There is a certain pattern as the changes in the Economy category happen mostly in the period 2011- 2015 after which there is a period of slowing down with little or no change.

Trends in Quality of Life between 2011 and 2019

Quality of Life: Change in Ranks and Scores 2011-2019 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank change Group Country change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change vs 2019 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2011 EU15+2 Austria 65 10 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 EU15+2 Belgium 66 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 4 EU15+2 Cyprus 55 15 -1 3 2 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 EU15+2 Denmark 67 5 0 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 0 4 3 3 1 1 EU15+2 Finland 70 1 0 1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 EU15+2 France 63 12 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 EU15+2 Germany 66 9 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 2 EU15+2 Greece 44 24 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -10 -12 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -7 EU15+2 Ireland 66 8 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 0 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 -1 EU15+2 Italy 51 18 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -6 -7 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 EU15+2 Luxembourg 66 7 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -1 -6 -6 -6 -6 -3 -4 -6 EU15+2 Malta 51 20 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 EU15+2 Netherlands 69 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 EU15+2 Portugal 50 21 1 0 1 2 4 4 3 2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 0 EU15+2 Spain 54 17 1 0 1 2 1 2 0 -4 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 1 -1 EU15+2 Sweden 68 4 1 1 0 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 3 0 2 1 -1 0 1 EU15+2 UK 63 11 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 EU10+1 Bulgaria 29 30 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 EU10+1 Croatia 42 25 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 -2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 1 2 1 1 2 0 2 5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 2 4 EU10+1 Estonia 54 16 2 1 1 2 4 6 6 5 2 2 1 2 3 5 4 4 EU10+1 Hungary 41 27 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -7 -6 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 EU10+1 Latvia 42 26 -2 -1 1 0 2 4 6 6 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 23 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 6 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 3 EU10+1 Poland 51 19 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 6 2 2 2 1 1 3 5 4 EU10+1 Romania 30 29 -4 0 1 -1 0 2 -2 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 22 1 2 1 3 2 -2 0 3 0 1 1 2 1 -3 0 2 EU10+1 Slovenia 59 13 2 0 0 3 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 CC Albania 23 33 0 0 2 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 CC Montenegro 31 28 -3 -2 -2 -6 -6 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 CC North Macedonia 17 35 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 -6 -6 -8 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 CC Serbia 28 32 2 2 2 5 3 -2 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 CC Turkey 29 31 3 4 4 2 2 5 7 7 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 PCC BiH 21 34 -1 3 4 0 -1 0 2 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 PCC Iceland 69 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 5 3 4 3 3 2

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In Quality of Life, most of the changes happen in the group of EU10+1. This includes the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia, but on different levels and different dynamic. Only Bulgaria has a somewhat inconclusive development.

The group of EU15+2 has a number of countries that have regressed – France, Germany, Greece (especially), Italy, Luxemburg. The countries which have progressed are Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland (after a slump) Portugal among others. The candidate countries show diverse trends in the Quality of Life – North Macedonia and Serbia have regressed for a certain period and the rest of the countries progress.

Trends in Democracy between 2011 and 2019

The table of Democracy shows that by and large there has been little change in the period 2011 – 2019. The deterioration in Democracy has affected mostly countries from the EU10+1 group – Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The reversal is especially visible in the cases of Hungary, which lost 6 positions and 15 score points in comparison to 2011 and Poland, which lost six positions compared to 2012, 2013 and 2014 and eight and nine positions with 11 and 9 score points compared to 2015 and 2016 respectively.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Democracy: Change in Ranks and Scores 2011-2019 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank change Group Country change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2019 vs 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2011 EU15+2 Austria 62 9 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 0 EU15+2 Belgium 62 10 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 EU15+2 Cyprus 49 22 -1 1 2 3 5 2 0 -2 -1 0 2 2 1 0 0 -3 EU15+2 Denmark 74 2 0 -1 0 2 1 -1 3 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 EU15+2 Finland 75 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 -1 4 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 3 EU15+2 France 57 14 3 4 4 -2 0 -1 1 0 2 5 6 -2 0 -1 0 -1 EU15+2 Germany 64 8 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 EU15+2 Greece 42 25 4 4 8 2 5 6 3 -2 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 1 EU15+2 Ireland 68 7 0 2 2 3 4 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 EU15+2 Italy 51 21 2 0 1 2 1 6 4 3 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 EU15+2 Luxembourg 69 6 0 2 2 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 EU15+2 Malta 54 16 -2 -3 -7 -5 -5 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 1 -1 EU15+2 Netherlands 72 4 1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 EU15+2 Portugal 61 11 2 1 7 10 9 9 10 8 2 1 5 10 9 8 9 7 EU15+2 Spain 54 15 1 -2 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 2 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 EU15+2 Sweden 73 3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 EU15+2 UK 59 13 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 2 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 EU10+1 Bulgaria 35 29 -1 0 3 1 -1 1 -1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 EU10+1 Croatia 38 27 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 53 18 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 EU10+1 Estonia 61 12 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 -1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 EU10+1 Hungary 36 28 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -7 -9 -15 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 EU10+1 Latvia 51 20 0 0 2 4 8 11 10 7 0 0 3 3 4 6 6 5 EU10+1 Lithuania 52 19 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 0 -1 2 -1 2 2 2 1 EU10+1 Poland 45 24 -1 -3 -9 -11 -7 -7 -8 -6 0 -1 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -3 EU10+1 Romania 38 26 0 -2 0 2 4 5 2 7 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 3 EU10+1 Slovakia 49 23 1 1 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 1 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 53 17 1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 2 3 -1 0 -1 0 CC Albania 27 32 1 1 4 7 4 7 7 11 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 2 CC Montenegro 28 31 -3 1 2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 CC North Macedonia 22 33 2 3 2 2 3 -1 -5 -4 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 CC Serbia 30 30 -3 -2 -3 -4 1 2 0 4 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 CC Turkey 11 35 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PCC BiH 18 34 0 -2 3 1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 PCC Iceland 70 5 -1 2 0 5 2 6 4 3 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 1

The countries which register improvement are Finland, France, Greece, Italy and especially Portugal as well as Albania among the candidate countries. The other candidate countries have not changed their ranking, but many have decrease in scores: Montenegro, Turkey and Bosnia. In the case of North Macedonia, there is gradual improvement in scores from 2014 onwards.

Generally, the changes in Democracy occur mostly in the period 2011 – 2016 after which there is little or no change.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Trends in Governance between 2011 and 2019

Governance: Change in Ranks and Scores 2011-2018 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank change Group Country change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2019 2019 vs vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 2011 EU15+2 Austria 68 7 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 EU15+2 Belgium 59 13 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 EU15+2 Cyprus 51 19 -1 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -5 -3 EU15+2 Denmark 72 3 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -5 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 EU15+2 Finland 73 1 0 2 1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 3 2 0 1 2 2 2 EU15+2 France 59 12 0 2 1 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 EU15+2 Germany 67 8 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 EU15+2 Greece 38 27 3 5 4 4 3 1 1 -1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 EU15+2 Ireland 66 9 1 0 -2 -2 1 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 1 0 EU15+2 Italy 43 25 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 EU15+2 Luxembourg 72 2 1 1 0 1 2 4 1 1 3 3 2 3 3 4 2 2 EU15+2 Malta 55 17 -1 1 0 0 -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 EU15+2 Netherlands 71 5 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 EU15+2 Portugal 61 11 0 2 3 7 7 8 7 5 0 1 2 4 3 7 6 4 EU15+2 Spain 52 18 0 -2 1 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 -3 0 0 EU15+2 Sweden 72 4 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 EU15+2 UK 63 10 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 EU10+1 Bulgaria 38 28 0 2 5 6 5 3 3 3 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 EU10+1 Croatia 41 26 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 0 2 3 4 4 2 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 0 1 3 EU10+1 Estonia 57 15 1 1 2 2 4 5 7 7 1 -1 0 -1 0 4 4 4 EU10+1 Hungary 43 24 0 -1 0 0 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Latvia 45 23 -2 -2 0 -1 1 1 5 5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 20 0 -2 -2 1 2 5 6 6 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 4 EU10+1 Poland 46 22 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Romania 34 29 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 21 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 56 16 0 0 3 4 3 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 2 1 0 0 -2 CC Albania 25 33 1 2 5 8 12 10 5 5 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 CC Montenegro 29 30 5 2 0 -1 0 0 5 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 CC North Macedonia 25 32 1 2 0 -4 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 CC Serbia 27 31 0 -1 -2 2 5 6 9 9 -1 -1 -1 1 2 2 3 3 CC Turkey 13 34 -2 -3 -7 -10 -14 -14 -13 -13 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 PCC BiH 12 35 -1 -1 -1 -3 -7 -6 -4 -4 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 PCC Iceland 70 6 0 2 1 0 2 8 4 4 0 2 1 1 1 5 2 2

In the Governance category, a number of countries register deterioration among the EU15+2 countries – Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Malta, Sweden and the UK. However, most of them are quite ahead in the ranking. Finland, Greece, Luxemburg and Portugal register improvement.

Within the EU10+1 group, Hungary and Poland register the most significant deterioration in the period 2011 – 2015 and 2016. Romania deteriorated its performance compared to the period after 2015. The countries which register most improvement are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Bulgaria, Slovenia and Croatia increase their score points in Governance.

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The candidate countries have a varied performance. Turkey has substantially deteriorated its performance in terms of ranking positions and score points – up to 3 positions and up to 14 points and BiH also deteriorated either. Albania, Montenegro and Serbia improve their performance.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The Economy category explained: methodology notes

The Economy category measures the economic performance and potential of the countries in the Index. Each of the four categories in the Catch Up Index is ascribed equal importance in terms of calculating a country’s overall score.

The Economy category is measured through a set of nine indicators, each of which captures a different aspect of economic performance. Some indicators gauge more than one aspect of economic performance. The metrics of the indicators are based on 14 sub-indicators, of varying weightings. The specific indicators and the weightings assigned to the sub-indicators reflect the unique model of the Catch Up Index.

The raw data used for the indicators (e.g. GDP per capita or other composite indicator scores or coefficients) are converted into a Catch-Up Index score on a scale of 0 to 100 (lowest to highest) to allow for a standardized score that can be compared across countries or categories and indicators. Each of the indicators has different weight assigned to it, according to its importance in the Catch Up Index model.

Economy Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

GDP per capita GDP per capita in PPS, EU28=100 25% (0,25)

Government debt General government debt (% of GDP) 13% (0,125)

Credit ratings Sovereign credit ratings 13% (0,125)

Employment Employment rate % 8% (0,083)

Energy Intensity Energy intensity of the economy 8% (0,083)

Information Society Information and Communication Technology 8% (0,083)

Patents granted by USPTO per capita 4% (0,042) Research and Development High-tech exports as % of manufactured exports 4% (0,042)

Doing Business rank 4% (0,042) Market development Economic Freedom score 4% (0,042)

Motorways per area 1000 km2 2% (0,021)

Motorways per 100,000 inhabitants 2% (0,021) Transport infrastructure Other roads per 1000 km2 2% (0,021)

Other roads per 100,000 inhabitants 2% (0,021)

GDP per Capita (PPS with EU28=100 basis, Eurostat) remains the most important indicator of economic activity and is assigned 25% weight in the total Economy category.

Government Debt, measured as a % of GDP, is second in importance with 12.5%. The global economic calamities of recent years, and especially the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, have clearly demonstrated the critical importance of government debt as a factor for the economic vitality of a country.

The Sovereign Credit Ratings – or creditworthiness and level of investment risk - of a country are also attributed high importance in the Index, with a 12.5% weight. The Index uses a composite, rescaled score of 34 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

The Catch-Up Index 2019 the ratings of the three major agencies (Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s).

Employment, with a weight of 8%, is a measure of an economy’s potential to generate jobs and integrate as much as possible of the labor force in the labor market; this is measured through the share of working-age people in employment.

Energy Intensity, also ascribed an 8% weighting, is a measure of an economy’s energy efficiency, calculating energy consumption divided by GDP as kilogram of oil equivalent per €1000. Energy intensity is also an important measure of an economy’s competitiveness, because high energy inefficiency incurs more costs in production and services.

Research and Development, again with a weight of 8%, is a measure of the level of development and the “quality” of contemporary , including their competiveness. The Index uses two sub-indicators. The first is the number of patents registered from a country with the Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) annually on a per capita basis. The second indicator is the share of high-tech exports in a country’s manufactured exports.

The Market Development indicator (also 8%) is the composite score of two sub-indicators – the ’s Ease of Doing Business ranking and the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom. The latter defines the highest form of economic freedom as “an absolute right of property ownership, fully realized freedoms of movement for labor, capital, and goods, and an absolute absence of coercion or constraint of economic liberty beyond the extent necessary for citizens to protect and maintain liberty itself.”

The Transport Infrastructure Indicator (8%) is a measure of a country’s economic development and its potential for economic activity. The Index uses four sub-indicators, based on calculating coefficients of motorways and other roads on a per capita and country area basis.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The ingredients of democracy: Methodology notes

Catching up in Democracy is essential for the post-communist member states of the EU, particularly given that the Copenhagen accession criteria for EU membership primarily focused on democracy. But although EU membership has often been perceived as a watershed in the political transition of the EU10 group, or even the end of that transition, it now appears that the newer members may not have achieved parity with more developed European nations in their progress in building democratic institutions and .

The Catch-Up Index was designed to analyse several aspects of democracy that are of particular significance for the newer member states, and those that are aspiring to be.

The Democracy category has equal weighting with the other three categories in the Catch-Up Index (Economy, Quality of Life and Governance). This category is measured through a set of seven indicators, which use nine sub-indicators. The raw data drawn from opinion polls and other composite indicator scores are converted into the Catch-Up Index score on a scale of 0 to 100 (lowest to highest) to give a standardized score that allows for comparison across countries, categories and indicators. Each of the indicators has a different weight assigned to it according to its importance in the Index model.

Democracy Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

Freedom House score 20% (0,195) Democracy Indices Economist Intelligence Unit 20% (0,195)

Freedom House Freedom of the Press score 10% (0,98) Media Freedom Reporters without Borders 10% (0,98)

Satisfaction with democracy Satisfaction with democracy % 10% (0,98)

Trust in People Trust in people 10% (0,98)

Voice and Accountability Voice and Accountability - WGI 10% (0,98)

Human Rights Political terror indicator by 10% (0,98)

E-participation E-participation index 2% (0,024)

The first indicator used to measure democracy is composed of two established composite democracy indexes – those of Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Each was attributed very high importance in the Democracy category with 20% weight (or 40% for both) because they assess the overall democracy in a country. The Freedom of the World index was used from Freedom House, rather than the specialized post-communist states’ Nations in Transit index, because it does not encompass the Western European states. The EIU Democracy Index was used because its scores are more nuanced than the Freedom of the World scores, which allows for better distinction between the quality of democracy in the European states. Media Freedom was attributed special attention in the Catch-Up Index because the media is essential to the democratic process – especially in the post-communist states. The Catch-Up Index relies again on two established media freedom indexes – of Freedom House and of Reporters 36 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

The Catch-Up Index 2019 without Borders. Each is assigned 10% weight, giving the Media Freedom indicator a 20% overall weight.

Satisfaction with Democracy measures the attitude of citizens towards the democratic systems of governance in their countries. This is one of the only two indicators (along with Trust in People) that relies on public opinion surveys (in this case the main source is Eurobarometer), and the scores are based on the proportion of citizens who approve their countries’ democratic systems.

Trust in People measures the level of people’s trust of those who are outside of their immediate family or close friends. Literature abounds on the importance of trust for democracy - above all Francis Fukuyama’s “Trust”, – or economy and the successful organization of society. In this case, the Catch-Up Index employs the measure of Trust in People as a proxy for civil society development, given the limitations of available data on similar indicators for all the countries in the Index.

Voice and Accountability, with a weight of 10%, is a composite indicator of the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). This includes perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media. The WGI scores also use World Bank assessments and reports that are not publicly available.

Absence of Political terror is also deemed essential for a functioning democracy and carries a weight of 10%. The scores are based on Global Peace Index “Political terror” indicator, e.g. identifying state terror, or violations of physical and personal integrity rights carried out by the state.

E-participation (2%) measures the level of participation in decision-making, governance or similar activities that is enabled by Information and Communication Technologies. For example, the facilitation of citizens’ political participation through internet or cellular technologies within the broader “e-democracy” concept. Facebook advocacy or the “twitter revolutions” offer specific examples of similar phenomena.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Quality of Life: Methodology notes

Quality of Life is the category most influenced by the “bottom-up” approach in constructing the index. The metrics of the category have been designed to establish how wealthy people are and to what degree social issues affect them, such as income inequality, risk of poverty and long-term unemployment. The indicators also aim to assess levels of access to higher education and the quality of education available, as well as whether people are living longer, healthier lives with access to good quality healthcare services.

These criteria are prerequisites for individuals to have good quality of life and for the “health” and successful development of society at large. It does not come as a surprise that the majority of the citizens of the newer member states (and the candidates) associate EU membership above all with improved quality of life, at least closer to that of their more established EU counterparts.

The raw data used for the indicators (e.g. life expectancy in years, and other composite indicator scores or coefficients) are converted into the standardized Catch-Up Index score, on a scale from 0 to 100 (lowest to highest), to allow for comparison across countries, categories and indicators. As was the case in the other categories, each of the indicators has a different weight assigned to it, reflecting its importance in the Catch-Up Index model.

Quality of Life Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

Welfare of consumers Actual individual consumption with EU28=100 20% (0,2)

Inequality - Gini coefficient 7% (0,067)

Social issues Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (%) 7% (0,067)

Long-term unemployment rate (%) 7% (0,067)

Share (%) of early school leavers 5% (0,05)

Share of population (%) with university degree 5%(0,05)

Education PISA* score in reading literacy 3% (0,033)

PISA score mathematical literacy 3% (0,033)

PISA score in scientific literacy 3% (0,033)

Healthy life expectancy at birth in years 5% (0,05)

Life expectancy in years 5% (0,05) Health Infant mortality by age of 5 5% (0,05)

EuroHealth Consumer Index 5% (0,05)

Human Development (UN) 20% (0,2)

* Programme for International Student Assessment (OECD).

Welfare of Consumers is attributed 20% weight in the category. It is based on data from Eurostat’s Actual Individual Consumption dataset, which is calculated on EU28=100 basis (rescaling each country’s data as a

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The Catch-Up Index 2019 fraction of the EU mean).

The Social Issues indicator, with a total weight of 21%, comprises three sub-indicators that measure different aspects of social problems in a society. The first assesses social inequality using the Gini coefficient – the greater the inequality, the lower a country’s score in the Index. The second sub-indicator is based on Eurostat’s relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap indicator. The third sub-indicator measures long-term unemployment in society, which signals the existence of more deep-seated social problems that the basic unemployment rate.

The Education indicator has been designed to reflect primarily the quality of education, rather than the quantity, given that the GDP share of education or the number of teachers or students do not always correspond to good outcomes. This is especially valid with regard to the new member states, where often inefficient and unreformed systems produce poor results, notwithstanding the funds or manpower channeled into them.

As is the case with many of the index indicators, their data can also be useful in assessing other aspects of the same category or, in this case, other categories. For example, as well as being a key indicator for Quality of life, education is relevant in assessing economic potential, democracy and good governance. The sub- indicator on early school-leavers assesses the share of young people giving up education and training prematurely; this may also help to gauge broader social problems. The second sub-indicator is the share of the population that hold university degrees. The next three education-related sub-indicators are based on the results of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The PISA scores go beyond the performance of high- school students and survey the broader state of a country’s education sector, for example qualification levels of teachers and the quality of universities. The Health indicator is likewise designed to focus more on the outcomes than on less indicative criteria such as share of GDP or the number of medical workers. One sub-indicator is life expectancy, measuring how many years a person is expected to live, while another is healthy life expectancy, specifically taking into account life without major illness. The indicator for infant mortality is also indicative of the broader state of health services or social services in a country (or even the state of society more broadly) because it assesses the likelihood of children surviving to the age to 5. The fourth sub-indicator is a composite of the EuroHealth Consumer Index by the Health Consumer Powerhouse, which measures the quality of healthcare systems in a country (including by outcome).

The United Nations’ Human Development Index is a composite index measuring life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide. It has similar dimensions to the Catch- Up Index, but includes additional data and methodology, which complements the other indicators but does not overlap with them.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The Catching-up of the EU10+1 Countries in Index 2019

The EU10+2 countries success in catching-up can be assessed by comparing their scores against the background of three benchmarks. These are respectively the maximum score of the EU15+2 group, which corresponds to the best performing country in the group, and often in the index; then the minimum of the EU15+2 group, corresponding to the worst performing country in the group; and finally the “desired European average”, which is the average score of the EU15+2, the EU older member states.

Catching-Up of the EU10+1 countries by Overall Score in Index 2019

The catching-up by overall score, which is the average of the Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance scores, shows that the best performer is Estonia on 13th position out of 35 countries with 57 points on a 0 to 100 scale (lowest to highest). It is followed by the Czech Republic and Slovenia each with 55 points, but a slight preference in decimals in the score puts the Czech Republic on 14th position and Slovenia on 15th position. Bulgaria and Romania are with 36 points each, but Romania is slightly ahead on 28th position and Bulgaria is 29th out of 35 countries. Croatia and Hungary, divided by 1 point only are respectively on 26th and 25th position

No country of the EU10+1performs above the desired average of the EU15+2, but Estonia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia come closest. The positive trends – Estonia – in both position of the ranking and scores improves much compared to the period 2011-2014. Likewise, Lithuania and Latvia improve their standing too compared to 2011-2014. The Czech Republic shows slow improvement and Slovenia registers slight deterioration, but they have stayed on top of the ranking anyway.

The deterioration trends are visible in the cases of Poland and Hungary. Poland’s standing deteriorated especially compared to 2014 and 2015, when it lost 5 places in the ranking. Hungary has been stuck more or less on the same place since 2014 with decline especially visible in its scores.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The newest EU member states - Croatia – shows no particular change in the 2011 – 2019 period. The three countries of Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria show somewhat uneven development, but Slovakia is well ahead in the ranking compared to the other two – 21st out of 35 countries with 48 points.

The Catch-Up Index: Changes by Overall Scores 2011 - 2019 Overall Overall Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Group Country Score Rank change change change change change change change change change change change change change change change change 2019 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 Maximum EU15+2 71 1 Average EU15+2 60 EU10+1 Estonia 57 13 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 1 3 EU10+1 Slovenia 55 15 1 0 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 EU10+1 Lithuania 50 20 1 0 0 1 2 3 6 5 0 -1 0 -1 2 2 4 4 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 21 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -2 0 0 EU10+1 Latvia 47 22 -1 0 1 0 3 5 7 6 -1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 EU10+1 Poland 47 23 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -1 EU10+1 Hungary 41 25 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 EU10+1 Croatia 40 26 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Minimum EU15+2 39 27 EU10+1 Romania 36 28 -1 -1 0 0 2 2 1 3 -1 -1 0 0 2 1 0 1 EU10+1 Bulgaria 36 29 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

EU10+1 catching-up by Economy Score

In the Economy category, one EU+1 country actually reached the desired benchmark. Estonia reached the EU15+2 average score in the Economy of 57 points out of 100 possible and is positioned on 12th out of 35 countries. The Czech Republic and Lithuania come next with respectively 14th place and 55 points and 16th place and 53 points. Bulgaria and Croatia are last among the new member states with 40 points each, but due to a slight difference they are respectively on 28th and 27th place out of 35 in total.

The trends in the period 2011 -2019 show that 8 out of 11 countries in CEE improved their performance at some point over the years. Only two new member states - Croatia and Slovenia – regressed and Bulgaria has an uneven trend of development. The most substantial improvements are registered by- Estonia, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, but it is differentiated as the first four countries mentioned above progressed very well, while Poland and Hungary to a lesser extent.

Economy: Changes in Ranks and Scores 2011-2019 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Economy Rank Group Country change change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change Score 2019 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 Maximum EU15+2 73 1 EU10+1 Estonia 57 12 0 1 0 1 2 4 6 5 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 4 4 Average EU15+2 57 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14 1 0 1 3 3 4 5 6 1 0 1 3 0 2 4 4 EU10+1 Lithuania 53 16 0 0 1 0 2 2 5 7 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 3 5 EU10+1 Latvia 51 17 1 0 0 -1 2 4 6 7 0 0 0 -1 0 2 5 6 EU10+1 Slovenia 51 18 1 2 2 1 1 -1 -3 -5 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 21 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 EU10+1 Poland 46 22 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 EU10+1 Hungary 44 23 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 3 3 EU10+1 Romania 42 25 0 0 -1 0 2 2 3 4 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 4 EU10+1 Croatia 40 27 0 1 1 0 1 -3 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 1 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Bulgaria 40 28 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 Minimum EU15+2 32 31

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Another specific observation is that the main progress and regress seem to occur in the period mostly between 2011 and 2014, after which there is little change, with Slovakia as an exception with deterioration after 2015.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Indicators in the Economy Category in Index 2019

The following tables present the ranking and scores of the EU10+1 countries by the basic indicators, which are used to measure the Economy category.

GDP per Capita In GDP per capita indicator, no new member state of the Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 EU10+1 group is close to the EU15+2 average result of 61 Maximum EU15+2 100 1 score points. The closest ones are the Czech Republic with Average EU15+2 61 16th position out of 35 and 50 points in the index on the scale Czech Republic 50 16 th Slovenia 48 18 0 to 100 (lowest to highest), followed by Slovenia (18 th Estonia 46 19 position and 48 points and Estonia (19 place and 46 points). Lithuania 45 20 Bulgaria (30th position and 32 points), Croatia (29th position Slovakia 42 22 and 37 points) and Romania (27th position and 38 points) are Hungary 41 23 last among the new member states. Poland 40 24 Latvia 40 25

Minimum EU15+2 39 26 Romania 38 27

Croatia 37 29 Bulgaria 32 30

The Employment indicator ranking shows that six of the EU10+1 Employment countries are above the EU15+2 average with the Czech Republic and Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Estonia closest to the maximum score of the old member states with Maximum EU15+2 73 1 identical scores of 67 points and 6th and 7th position respectively. Czech Republic 67 6 Estonia 67 7 Romania (24th place and 46 points) and Croatia (31st place and 24 Lithuania 62 10 points) are last in the group. Latvia 61 13 Slovenia 59 14 Hungary 55 16 Average EU15+2 55 Bulgaria 52 19 Slovakia 52 20 Poland 51 21 Romania 46 24 Croatia 36 27 Minimum EU15+2 24 31

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Research and Development The research and development indicator uses data of two Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 sub-indicators - patents granted by United States Patent and Maximum EU15+2 77 1 Trademark Office (USPTO) per capita and high-tech exports Average EU15+2 60 as a percentage of manufactured exports (World Bank data). Czech Republic 55 12 Estonia 52 15 The Czech Republic is close to the desired average of the th Latvia 50 16 EU15+2 with 12 place and 55 point, followed by Estonia Hungary 49 17 (15th place and 52 points) and Latvia (16th place and 50 Lithuania 42 21 points). The countries, which are last in the group are Croatia Slovakia 40 22 (27th place and 38 points), Slovenia (26th place and 38 points). Poland 40 23 Bulgaria 39 24 Romania 39 25 Slovenia 38 26 Croatia 38 27 Minimum EU15+2 34 29

Energy efficiency reflects the energy intensity of the economy. Energy Efficiency The new member states have generally poor performance in this Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 indicator. Slovenia is the closest to the desired average score with Maximum EU15+2 74 1 18th place and 54 points, followed by Croatia (20th place and 52 Average EU15+2 65 st Slovenia 54 18 points) and Latvia (21 place and 49 points). Minimum EU15+2 53 Croatia 52 20 Latvia 49 21 Lithuania 49 22 Slovakia 48 23 Romania 47 24 Poland 44 26 Hungary 44 27 Czech Republic 43 28 Estonia 25 31 Bulgaria 12 32

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The transport infrastructure indicator uses data from four sub- Transport Infrastructure Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 indicators – length of roads and highways both per population Maximum EU15+2 72 1 and per the country size. Three new member states perform Slovenia 71 2 above the average benchmark with Slovenia very close to the Hungary 58 7 EU15+2 maximum too with 71 points and 2nd place among 35 Estonia 57 8 countries. It is followed by Hungary (7th place and 58 points) Average EU15+2 55 th rd Croatia 54 14 and Estonia (8 place and 57 points). Romania (33 place with th Lithuania 51 17 34 points) and Bulgaria (30 with 37 points) are last among the Latvia 49 18 new member states. Czech Republic 49 19 Minimum EU15+2 43 25 Slovakia 43 26 Poland 40 29 Bulgaria 37 30 Romania 34 33

The new member states excel in the government debt indicator Government Debt with very low levels of debt. Estonia is 1st among 35 countries Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 and 80 points, above the old member states maximum score. Estonia 80 1 Bulgaria is 3rd among 35 countries with 72 points and the Czech Maximum EU15+2 73 2 th Bulgaria 72 3 Republic is 6 with 67 points. Even the last among the new Czech Republic 67 6 member states in this indicator are performing above the Lithuania 66 7 EU15+2 average – Croatia (27th place and 43 points), Slovenia Romania 65 9 (24th place and 46 points) and Hungary (23rd and 46 points). Latvia 64 10 Poland 58 15 Slovakia 57 16 Hungary 46 23 Slovenia 46 24 Croatia 43 27 Average EU15+2 41 Minimum EU15+2 0 35

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Market Development The Market Development indicator consists of two sub- Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 indicators – of Doing Business and Index of Economic Freedom. Maximum EU15+2 81 1 Four new member states score above the average benchmark Lithuania 74 4 th th Estonia 73 5 with Lithuania (4 place with 74 points), Estonia (5 place and Latvia 62 10 73 points) outperforming the rest by a large margin. The last in Czech Republic 57 14 the new member states ranking are Croatia (30th place and 30 Average EU15+2 54 points) and Hungary (29th place and 37 points). Poland 47 17 Slovenia 46 18 Romania 41 25 Slovakia 41 26 Bulgaria 40 28 Hungary 37 29 Croatia 30 30 Minimum EU15+2 13 34

The Information and Communication Technology index of the Information&Communication Technology United Nations measures the level of development of the Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 information society in a country. Estonia is above the average Maximum EU15+2 78 1 benchmark and is closest among its peers to the old member Estonia 66 9 states maximum – with 9th place and 66 points. It is followed by Average EU15+2 63 a large margin by Slovenia (17th place with 49 points) and Latvia Slovenia 49 17 Latvia 47 18 (18th place and 47 points). Romania (30th with 30 points), Croatia 46 19 th th Bulgaria (28 with 38 points) and Poland (27 with 39 points) Lithuania 45 21 are last among the new member states. Czech Republic 45 22 Slovakia 43 24 Minimum EU15+2 42 25 Hungary 40 26 Poland 39 27 Bulgaria 38 28 Romania 30 30

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

The Credit Rating is the average score of the sovereign rating risks of the three big credit agencies - Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. The Czech Republic and Estonia with 61 points each and 11th and 12th place respectively outperform the average benchmark of the old member states. The worst performing countries in this indicator among the new member states are Croatia (28th place and 34 points), Romania (27th place and 37 points) and Hungary (25th place and 39 points).

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

EU10+1 Catching-up by Quality of Life Score

No new member state scores above the average benchmark of the EU15+2, but Slovenia is closest with 59 points and 13th place out of 35. It is followed by the Czech Republic with 57 points and 14th place and Estonia has 54 points and 16th place. Bulgaria is the last among the new member states on 30th position with 29 points out of 100 possible, Romania is 29th with 30 points and Hungary is 27th with 41 points.

The Catch-Up Index: Changes by Quality of Life Scores 2011 - 2019 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank Group Country change change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2019 2019 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 Maximum EU15+2 70 1 Average EU15+2 61 EU10+1 Slovenia 59 13 2 0 0 3 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 1 2 1 1 2 0 2 5 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 2 4 EU10+1 Estonia 54 16 2 1 1 2 4 6 6 5 2 2 1 2 3 5 4 4 EU10+1 Poland 51 19 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 6 2 2 2 1 1 3 5 4 EU10+1 Slovakia 48 22 1 2 1 3 2 -2 0 3 0 1 1 2 1 -3 0 2 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 23 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 6 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 3 Minimum EU15+2 44 24 EU10+1 Croatia 42 25 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 -2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 EU10+1 Latvia 42 26 -2 -1 1 0 2 4 6 6 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 EU10+1 Hungary 41 27 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -7 -6 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 EU10+1 Romania 30 29 -4 0 1 -1 0 2 -2 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 EU10+1 Bulgaria 29 30 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 In contrast to the Economy category, where all new member states were above the minimum score of the EU15+2, in Quality of Life five countries are below it, indicating that catching-up is harder in this category for a number of countries. In regard to the trends in the period 2011 – 2019, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Poland show improvement for different years between 2011 and 2015-2016, and to a lesser extent Lithuania, Croatia and Latvia. It can be observed that most of the changes occur in the period 2011-2014 as was the case of the other categories too.

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

Indicators in the Quality of Life Category in Index 2019

Consumption per capita The consumption indicator is used for comparing the relative welfare of consumers between countries. The countries of the Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 EU10+1 are still far from the desired average benchmark and Maximum EU15+2 87 1 Average EU15+2 65 even farther from the best performers in the old member states Lithuania 54 16 group. The difference between the best performer Lithuania Czech Republic 48 17 with 54 points (16th place out of 35) and the maximum score of Poland 44 20 87 points (1st place) is evident. The Czech Republic (17th with 48 Slovakia 44 21 points) and Poland and Slovakia and Slovenia each with 44 Slovenia 44 22 th st nd Minimum EU15+2 43 23 points (respectively 20 , 21 and 22 ) also perform well. The st Estonia 41 24 last in the ranking of new member states are Bulgaria (31 place Latvia 38 25 with 27 points), Croatia (29th place with 33 points) and Hungary Romania 38 26 (28th place with 34 points). Hungary 34 28 Croatia 33 29 Bulgaria 27 31

Social Issues Social Issues is a composite indicator that includes three sub- Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 indicators on inequality, risk of poverty and long-term unemployment. Two of the new member states outperform all the Czech Republic 71 1 st Slovenia 70 2 rest of the 35 countries in the index. The Czech Republic is 1 in Maximum EU15+2 67 3 nd the ranking with 71 points and Slovenia is 2 with 70 points. Poland 62 6 Poland and Slovakia perform above the average benchmark with Slovakia 61 10 6th place and 62 points and 10th place and 61 points respectively. Average EU15+2 55 Croatia 54 15 The last in the ranking of the EU10+1 are Romania with 29th place Estonia 54 18 Hungary 53 20 with 35 points, Bulgaria (26th with 38 points) and Latvia (24th with Lithuania 48 23 45 points). Latvia 45 24 Bulgaria 38 26 Minimum EU15+2 35 28 Romania 35 29

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The Catch-Up Index 2019

It is interesting to note that in one of the sub-indicators – Gini index (social issues sub-indicator) inequality, measured by the Gini index. The data shows that Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 EU10+1 societies either very equal or among the most Slovakia 91 1 unequal. Three of the new EU member states are at the top of Slovenia 80 2 Czech Republic 78 3 the overall ranking – Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Maximum EU15+2 70 5 Republic. Slovakia is the best performing country with the Poland 62 11 lowest Gini coefficient and lowest inequality among the 35 Hungary 58 14 countries in the index. Slovenia is 2nd with 80 points and the Average EU15+2 54 Czech Republic is 3rd with 78 points. They are above the Croatia 54 18 th Estonia 50 19 maximum score of the EU15+2 countries with 5 place and 70 Minimum EU15+2 38 27 points. Two other countries – Poland and Hungary - are Romania 31 29 performing above the average benchmark. Latvia 29 30 Lithuania 24 33 But they are also countries lagging behind – Bulgaria is just Bulgaria 12 34 34th out of 35 countries with 12 points, Lithuania is 33rd with 24 points, Latvia is 30th with 29 points and Romania is 29th with 31 points.

The Education indicator is a composite of several sub-indicators – Education share of people with university education and the PISA results. Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Estonia is the best performing country among all 35 included in Estonia 77 1 the index with 1st place and 77 points. Poland and Slovenia Maximum EU15+2 74 2 Poland 67 6 perform well too as they score above the average benchmark Slovenia 63 10 th th with respectively 6 place with 67 points for Poland and 10 Average EU15+2 59 place and 63 points for Slovenia. Romania with 31st place and 22 Lithuania 57 17 points and Bulgaria with 29th place and 27 points are last among Latvia 56 18 the new member states. Czech Republic 55 19 Hungary 48 21 Croatia 45 22 Slovakia 44 24 Minimum EU15+2 40 27 Bulgaria 27 29 Romania 22 31

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In regard to the PISA scores, which is a sub-indicator for PISA (education sub-indicator) education, Estonia is 1st among all 35 countries with a score of Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 80 points. Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic are also Estonia 80 1 performing well with Poland on 3rd place of 35 in total and 73 Maximum EU15+2 75 2 points, Slovenia (5th with 67 points) and the Czech Republic Poland 73 3 th st Slovenia 67 5 (12 with 62 points). Bulgaria (31 with 22 points) and Czech Republic 62 12 Romania (30th with 23 points) are last among the new member Average EU15+2 58 states. Latvia 56 17 Lithuania 53 19 Hungary 53 20 Croatia 48 23 Slovakia 47 24 Minimum EU15+2 28 29 Romania 23 30 Bulgaria 22 31

The Health indicator uses several sub-indicators: life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, quality of the healthcare system and the Health infant mortality. No country is above the average benchmark, but Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 th th Slovenia (17 with 58 points), the Czech Republic (19 with 52 Maximum EU15+2 69 1 points) and Estonia (21st with 50 points) perform better than their Average EU15+2 63 peers. Bulgaria (the last 35th place with 22 points) and Romania Slovenia 58 17 Czech Republic 52 19 (33rd with 23 points) are last in the group. Minimum EU15+2 51 20 Estonia 50 21

Croatia 42 22 Slovakia 42 23

Poland 38 25 Lithuania 32 28

Hungary 31 29 Latvia 30 30

Bulgaria 23 33 Romania 22 35

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The Human Development Index of the United Nations is a Human Development Index summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 human development: a long and healthy life, being Maximum EU15+2 77 1 knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. No new EU Average EU15+2 63 Slovenia 61 12 member state is above the average benchmark of the EU15+2, th Czech Republic 57 15 but Slovenia is very close with 12 place out of 35 and 61 score Estonia 54 18 points. The Czech Republic (15th with 57 points) and Estonia Poland 50 21 (18th with 54 points) follow closely. The last in line are Romania Lithuania 49 22 and Bulgaria with identical score of 28 points and respectively Slovakia 44 23 th th th Latvia 43 24 29 and 28 place as well as Croatia (27 with 36 points) and Minimum EU15+2 41 25 Hungary (26th with 39 points). Hungary 39 26 Croatia 36 27 Bulgaria 28 28 Romania 28 29

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EU10+1 catching-up by Democracy Score

In Democracy, Estonia reached the desired EU15+2 average score of 61 points and on 12th place among 35 countries (Estonia has reached also the average in the Economy). Slovenia is next, but on the more distant 17th position and with 53 points it has identical score as the Czech Republic on 18th place (they have a slight difference after the decimals in the score.

Bulgaria (29th with 35 points), Hungary (28th with 36 points) and Croatia (26th with 38 points) are at the bottom of the ranking of the new member states in the Democracy category.

Democracy: Change in Ranks and Scores 2011-2018 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank Group Country change change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2018 2018 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011

Maximum EU15+2 75 1 Average EU15+2 61 EU10+1 Estonia 61 12 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 -1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 53 17 1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 2 3 -1 0 -1 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 53 18 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 EU10+1 Lithuania 52 19 1 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 0 -1 2 -1 2 2 2 1 EU10+1 Latvia 51 20 0 0 2 4 8 11 10 7 0 0 3 3 4 6 6 5 EU10+1 Slovakia 49 23 1 1 -5 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 1 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 EU10+1 Poland 45 24 -1 -3 -9 -11 -7 -7 -8 -6 0 -1 -9 -8 -6 -6 -6 -3 Minimum EU15+2 42 25 EU10+1 Romania 38 26 0 -2 0 2 4 5 2 7 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 3 EU10+1 Croatia 38 27 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 EU10+1 Hungary 36 28 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -7 -9 -15 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -6 EU10+1 Bulgaria 35 29 -1 0 3 1 -1 1 -1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1

In terms of trends in the period 2011 – 2019, Lithuania, Latvia and Romania progress with upward trends mostly between 2011 and 2016.

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Five countries regress during the years. These are the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Croatia and Hungary. This is especially visible in the case of Hungary, which lost 6 positions and 15 score points in comparison to 2011, Poland, which lost six positions compared to 2012, 2013 and 2014 and eight and nine positions with 11 and 9 score points compared to 2015 and 2016 respectively. Slovakia manages to alter the negative trend in 2017. There is a certain temporal pattern as the changes occur mostly compared to the period 2011-2016 and there are smaller or no changes in the period 2017-2018.

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Indicators in the Democracy Category in Index 2019

The Satisfaction with Democracy indicator is based on the Satisfaction with Democracy Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 results of public opinion surveys (Eurobarometer). No new Maximum EU15+2 89 1 EU member state scores above the average benchmark, but Average EU15+2 61 Estonia and Poland with 59 points and respectively 13th and Estonia 59 13 14th place are close to it. The Czech Republic is next with 15th Poland 59 14 place and 58 points. The most disappointed with the state of Czech Republic 58 15 nd Hungary 51 16 democracy in their countries are Croatia (32 place and 25 Latvia 49 17 points), Romania (29th place and 31 points) and Bulgaria Slovakia 46 18 (28th place and 32 points). Lithuania 43 21 Slovenia 43 22 Bulgaria 32 28 Romania 31 29 Minimum EU15+2 27 31 Croatia 25 32

Trust in People is a proxy indicator for civil society Trust in People development. It measures to what extent people trust others Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Maximum EU15+2 93 1 that are not their immediate friends and relatives. This is a Average EU15+2 60 fundamental measure for a democratic society. No new EU Estonia 51 17 member state is above the average benchmark, but Estonia is Hungary 50 18 closest with 17th place and 51 points, Hungary is next with 18th Romania 48 19 place and 50 points. The last among their peers are Croatia Slovenia 48 20 st th Poland 46 22 (31 with 31 points), Slovakia (30 with 34 points) and Lithuania 45 23 th Bulgaria with identical result (29 with 34 points). Latvia 43 24 Czech Republic 39 27 Bulgaria 34 29 Slovakia 34 30 Croatia 31 31 Minimum EU15+2 17 32

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Democracy Indices The Democracy Indices is a composite score of Freedom House Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 and Economist Intelligence Unit reports. According to these Maximum EU15+2 74 1 results, all new member states are below the average Average EU15+2 63 Estonia 58 13 benchmark and far from the best performer among the old th Slovenia 55 18 member states. Estonia is the closest with 13 place and 58 Czech Republic 55 19 points. Slovenia (18th with 55 points) and the Czech Republic Lithuania 53 20 (19th with 55 points) are next with identical results. Latvia 51 22 Minimum EU15+2 50 23 Hungary is last among its peers with 29th place and 33 points, Slovakia 49 24 Romania is 28th with 39 points, Poland and Croatia have an Bulgaria 43 25 th th Croatia 42 26 identical score of 42 points and are respectively 27 and 26 . Poland 42 27 Romania 39 28 Hungary 33 29

Media freedom is measured through the Freedom House Media Freedom Freedom of the Press score and the Reporters without Borders Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Press Freedom Index. Estonia scores above the average Maximum EU15+2 77 1 Estonia 69 6 benchmark and is even close to the maximum of the EU15+2. th Average EU15+2 61 The next in the ranking are Lithuania (13 place with 56 points) Lithuania 56 13 th and Latvia (14 place with 55 points). The last among their peers Latvia 55 14 are Bulgaria – 31st place out of 35 countries with 29 points and Slovenia 54 16 Hungary with 28th place and 33 points. Czech Republic 53 18 Slovakia 51 21 Romania 41 24 Poland 40 25 Croatia 36 26 Minimum EU15+2 34 27 Hungary 33 28 Bulgaria 29 31

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Civil and Political Rights This indicator is based on two sub-indicators - Voice and Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Accountability of the World Bank and the Political Terror Maximum EU15+2 67 1 indicator of the Global Peace Index. Estonia is performing Estonia 63 12 above the average benchmark with 12th place and 63 points. Average EU15+2 60 Next are Slovenia (15th with 58 points), the Czech Republic Slovenia 58 15 Czech Republic 57 16 and Lithuania with identical scores (57 points each but on th th Lithuania 57 17 16 and 17 place). The last among their peers are Bulgaria Slovakia 56 18 (34th place with 25 points), Hungary (30th with 32 points) and Latvia 55 19 Romania (28th place with 34 points). Poland 47 23 Croatia 43 25 Minimum EU15+2 41 26 Romania 34 28 Hungary 32 30 Bulgaria 25 34

The E-participation indicator measures the "ICT-supported E-participation participation in processes involved in government and Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 governance”, referring to citizen participation in the process. No Maximum EU15+2 76 1 new EU member state is above the EU15+2 average benchmark, Average EU15+2 63 but Estonia is closest (12th place with 62 points), followed by Estonia 62 12 th th Poland 59 14 Poland (14 with 59 points) and Bulgaria (16 with 56 points). Bulgaria 56 16 th The last among their peers are the Czech Republic (34 with 16 Slovenia 47 21 points), Latvia (32nd with 26 points) and Romania (30th with 30 Slovakia 46 23 points). Lithuania 45 24 Croatia 40 25 Minimum EU15+2 38 26 Hungary 30 29 Romania 30 30 Latvia 26 32 Czech Republic 16 34

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EU10+1 Catching-up by Governance Score

In Governance, no new member state is above the EU15+2 average, but the Czech Republic and Estonia are closest to it with 57 points each and respectively 14th and 15th position in the ranking. Slovenia is very close too with 56 points and 16th place. Romania with 34 points and 29th position out of 35 and Bulgaria with 38 points and 28th positions are last in the group.

Governance Change in Ranks and Scores 2011-2018 Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Score Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Score Rank Group Country change change change change change change change change Change Change Change Change Change change change change 2018 2018 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011 vs 2018 vs 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015 vs 2014 vs 2013 vs 2012 vs 2011

Maximum EU15+2 73 1 Average EU15+2 61 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 0 2 3 4 4 2 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 0 1 3 EU10+1 Estonia 57 15 1 1 2 2 4 5 7 7 1 -1 0 -1 0 4 4 4 EU10+1 Slovenia 56 16 0 0 3 4 3 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 2 1 0 0 -2 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 20 0 -2 -2 1 2 5 6 6 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 4 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 21 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Poland 46 22 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Latvia 45 23 -2 -2 0 -1 1 1 5 5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 EU10+1 Hungary 43 24 0 -1 0 0 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 EU10+1 Croatia 41 26 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Minimum EU15+2 38 27 EU10+1 Bulgaria 38 28 0 2 5 6 5 3 3 3 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 EU10+1 Romania 34 29 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0

The trends in the period 2011 – 2019 show several countries improve their standing over the years - the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. Poland and Hungary show downward trends compared to

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2011-2016 in the case of Poland and in the case of Hungary in the period 2011-2014 after which they stayed on the same level. Romania started to deteriorate too after 2014.

Indicators in the Governance Category in Index 2019

Corruption The corruption indicator uses data from two sub-indicators - Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 the Corruption Perception Index of Transparency Maximum EU15+2 80 1 International and Control of Corruption of the World Bank. Estonia 66 12 Estonia performs above the EU15+2 average with 12th place Average EU15+2 63 and a score of 66 points. Slovenia is next, but below the Slovenia 54 15 average benchmark with 15th place and 54 points. Poland is Poland 51 16 third in its group with 16th place among 35 countries and a Czech Republic 47 19 score of 51 points. The last among their peers are Bulgaria Lithuania 47 20 (30th with 28 points), Romania (27th with 32 points) and Latvia 44 22 Hungary (26th with 35 points). Slovakia 40 23 Croatia 36 25 Hungary 35 26 Minimum EU15+2 32 28 Romania 32 29 Bulgaria 28 30

The political stability indicator uses two sub-indicators - Political Stability Political Instability of the Economist Intelligence Unit and Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Political Stability and Absence of Violence of the World Maximum EU15+2 75 2 Governance Indicators. Slovenia (9th place and 67 points), the Slovenia 67 9 Czech Republic (11th with 63 points) and Hungary (14th with 59 Czech Republic 63 11 points) score above the average benchmark. The most Hungary 59 14 Average EU15+2 58 politically unstable countries are Romania (27th with 43 points), Slovakia 54 15 Poland (26th with 43 points), and Latvia (23th with 45 points). Croatia 52 16 Lithuania 51 19 Bulgaria 49 20 Estonia 48 21 Latvia 45 23 60 Poland 43 26 Romania www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu43 27 Minimum EU15+2 42 29 The Catch-Up Index 2019

Government Effectiveness The Governance Effectiveness indicator of the World Bank Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Maximum EU15+2 77 1 shows that no new EU member state outperforms the average th th Average EU15+2 62 benchmark, but Estonia (13 with 59 points), Slovenia (15 th Estonia 59 13 with 58 points), and the Lithuania (16 with 55 points) are Slovenia 58 15 closest to it. The last among these 11 countries are Romania th th Lithuania 55 16 (34 with 10 points), Bulgaria (28 with 34 points) and Croatia th Latvia 54 17 (25 with 41 points). Czech Republic 52 20

Slovakia 49 22 Poland 48 23 Hungary 42 24 Croatia 41 25 Minimum EU15+2 37 27 Bulgaria 34 28 Romania 10 34

In Regulatory Quality, Estonia has reached the average Regulatory Quality benchmark with a score of 62 points and 13th place out of 35 Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 countries. Next, but below the benchmark, are Slovenia (15th Maximum EU15+2 77 1 with 58 points) and the Czech Republic (17th with 58 points). The Average EU15+2 62 last among their peers are Bulgaria (30th with 25 points), Croatia Estonia 62 13 (26th with 36 points) and Romania (25th with 37 points). Slovenia 58 15 Czech Republic 57 17 Lithuania 54 19 Latvia 54 20 Hungary 46 22 Slovakia 44 23 Poland 40 24 Romania 37 25 Croatia 36 26 Minimum EU15+2 32 28 Bulgaria 25 30

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Rule of Law In the Rule of Law indicator, part of the World Governance Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 Indicators, Estonia has reached the desired average benchmark Maximum EU15+2 77 1 with 13th place and 62 points. Next are Slovenia (15th and 58 Average EU15+2 62 th Estonia 62 13 points) and the Czech Republic (17 place and 57 points). th Slovenia 58 15 Bulgaria is last in the group with 30 position and 25 points. th th Czech Republic 57 17 Croatia (26 place with 36 points) and Romania (25 place with Lithuania 54 19 37 points) also perform poorly. Latvia 54 20

Hungary 46 22 Slovakia 44 23 Poland 40 24 Romania 37 25 Croatia 36 26

Minimum EU15+2 32 28 Bulgaria 25 30

This indicator is composed of two sub-indicators by selected Global Peace Index data and the homicide rates per 100,000 Internal Conflict and Crime Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 people. The Czech Republic score far above the desired average Maximum EU15+2 70 2 benchmark and are on par with the best performing EU15+2 Czech Republic 70 3 state. Slovenia is next in the group and it reaches the average Average EU15+2 59 benchmark with 13th place and 59 points. The worst performing Slovenia 59 13 th countries in the group are Latvia (34 place with 20 points), Croatia 52 19 rd th Lithuania (33 with 23 points) and Estonia (29 with 37 points). Bulgaria 52 20 Romania 52 21

Slovakia 52 22 Minimum EU15+2 50 24 Poland 47 25 Hungary 38 28 Estonia 37 29

Lithuania 23 33 Latvia 20 34

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E-government The E-government indicator is based on the UN’s E- Country Score 2019 Rank 2019 government surveys and scores. It is included in the Index Maximum EU15+2 81 1 because it is a measure of government efficiency and delivery Estonia 66 8 of services to citizens. Estonia is leader in the CEE group with Average EU15+2 65 8th place out of 35 and 66 points. The country scores above the Poland 53 18 average benchmark. The rest of the countries does not fare so Minimum EU15+2 49 20 will. By a wide margin Poland is next with 18th place and 53 Slovenia 49 21 points, followed by Slovenia with 21st place and 49 points. The Lithuania 45 22 last in their group are Romania (32nd place with 25 points), Hungary 38 23 Latvia (30th place with 32 points) and Croatia (29th place with Bulgaria 36 24 33 points). Slovakia 36 25 Czech Republic 34 28 Croatia 33 29 Latvia 32 30 Romania 25 32

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EU10+1 performance by country in the Catch-Up Index 2019

The spider graphs below show how the EU10+1 individual country scores compared to the desired “European average” in the four categories – Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance. The EU15+2 average scores are calculated as the average of the scores of the 15 older EU member states and Cyprus and Malta. The countries are shown in alphabetical order, only Croatia, which joined the EU latest, is at the end.

In addition to the distance to the desired average goal, the graphs shows to what extent the catching-up is an even and balanced process, in what areas the convergence is more successful and in what it is lagging behind. In the majority of cases, the scores in the Economy category are closer, meaning the catching-up is more successful. Reversely, the catching-up in the Quality of Life might not be that successful for most of these countries.

The graphs show also that the countries that are in forward ranking positions, i.e. more successful in catching-up in general have identically performance across all four categories – e.g. Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. In contrast, countries that are lagging behind in the ranking have rather diverse performance in the four different categories – e.g. Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. This suggests that they might be no shortcuts in catching-up and countries are not advised to skip one area of development at the expense of another.

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Supplements

Supplement I: Country Scores by Indicators and Categories

Catch-Up Index 2019: Economy Scores (in z-scores on a scale 100-0)* GDP per Government Credit Energy Information Research and Employment Market development Transport infrastructure Economy Scores capita debt ratings Intensity Society Development High-tech GDP per Employment as Energy Information Patents Economy General Sovereigns exports as % Doing Economic Motorways Motorways Other roads Other roads capita in PPS percentage of intensity of and granted by government credit of Business Freedom per area per 100000 per 1000 per 100000 Score with population, age the Communicatio USPTO per debt (% of GDP) ratings manifacture rank score 1000 km2 inhabitants km2 inhabitants EU27=100 group 15-64 economy n Technology capita d exports Country 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 Austria 66 44 73 63 66 63 74 47 61 61 52 60 52 54 62 Belgium 61 29 64 45 59 59 62 44 44 45 91 52 94 52 55 Cyprus 49 29 38 54 61 58 38 69 36 49 79 82 53 47 48 Denmark 66 66 79 69 73 78 84 53 83 78 62 66 54 51 70 Finland 59 52 73 62 53 60 96 40 68 69 33 53 36 53 60 France 55 30 67 48 64 68 58 84 57 34 53 56 58 58 55 Germany 63 50 79 70 65 71 84 58 66 61 69 52 55 41 65 Greece 39 0 21 24 62 46 37 50 13 13 45 55 44 47 32 Ireland 93 49 56 54 74 63 68 81 64 88 44 58 50 65 70 Italy 52 10 39 32 67 42 47 37 32 27 55 44 43 34 41 Luxembourg 100 73 79 51 69 73 59 35 19 69 97 74 46 34 73 Malta 53 59 54 61 70 60 44 100 59 47 31 22 100 37 58 Netherlands 67 56 79 73 64 73 77 76 47 74 100 53 77 41 68 Portugal 43 17 39 56 61 44 37 31 50 38 65 80 35 28 42 Spain 50 31 49 40 65 58 39 36 59 38 63 86 37 32 48 Sweden 63 63 79 73 64 72 100 54 77 66 36 62 39 67 68 UK 56 37 67 67 68 77 62 75 79 82 47 33 54 38 61 Bulgaria 32 72 41 52 12 38 36 43 30 49 38 42 36 31 40 Czech Republic 50 67 61 67 43 45 41 68 48 66 47 44 53 50 55 Estonia 46 80 61 67 25 66 43 61 70 76 34 44 49 100 57 Hungary 41 46 39 55 44 40 37 61 38 36 52 60 56 62 44 Latvia 40 64 51 61 49 47 35 66 69 56 31 22 46 96 51 Lithuania 45 66 51 62 49 45 35 48 76 73 36 44 47 76 53 Poland 40 58 51 51 44 39 36 44 49 46 36 30 49 47 46 Romania 38 65 37 46 47 30 35 43 35 48 34 30 38 34 42 Slovakia 42 57 56 52 48 43 36 44 45 37 41 39 46 45 47 Slovenia 48 46 52 59 54 49 42 35 52 41 71 95 56 62 51 Croatia 37 43 34 36 52 46 35 40 39 21 55 84 39 38 40 North Macedonia 26 63 28 17 28 20 34 27 71 47 41 46 40 39 34 Turkey 38 69 21 18 56 22 35 23 56 29 34 28 37 32 37 Montenegro 30 49 19 24 36 29 34 25 40 18 31 22 40 51 31 Iceland 67 71 54 90 7 84 64 78 62 74 31 28 35 96 63 Albania 23 47 19 26 46 1 34 17 10 38 31 22 35 29 27 BIH 23 62 12 0 4 7 34 30 2 22 34 31 38 35 22 Serbia 26 44 28 33 0 33 35 26 45 34 44 49 40 38 31 The table shows the standartized z-scores on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest, for the 35 countries in the Index in the basic indicators in the respective category. Missing data was imputed following the methodology described in this report.

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Catch-Up Index 2019: Quality of Life Scores (in z-scores on a scale 100-0)* Human Welfare of Social issues Education Health Developm consumers ent Quality Actual Relative Share of of Life Healthy life individual Inequality - median at- Long term Share (%) of population PISA score in PISA score PISA score in Infant Life EuroHealth Human expectancy Score consumptio Gini risk-of- unemploym early school (%) with reading mathematic scientific mortality by expectancy Consumer Developme at birth in Quality of Life Scores n with coefficient poverty gap ent rate (%) leavers university literacy al literacy literacy age of 5 in years Index nt Index years EU27=100 (%) degree Country 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 Austria 74 66 58 62 60 55 57 63 60 68 59 65 71 66 65 Belgium 70 70 65 55 55 70 62 68 65 62 57 64 82 68 66 Cyprus 57 56 67 56 58 79 23 32 29 75 66 68 36 50 55 Denmark 73 62 66 64 50 62 67 69 61 63 53 60 83 72 67 Finland 71 70 79 61 56 74 77 68 79 62 69 65 80 70 70 France 67 59 72 51 54 62 62 60 61 75 54 72 71 57 63 Germany 78 48 57 62 49 43 65 63 67 62 58 60 68 76 66 Greece 43 43 37 5 69 49 42 34 37 65 46 63 32 50 44 Ireland 57 57 76 59 68 82 76 63 63 65 60 68 44 77 66 Italy 60 38 36 40 35 22 53 55 47 74 61 75 47 54 51 Luxembourg 87 39 51 62 63 76 49 53 52 69 67 68 73 64 66 Malta 46 58 71 64 24 41 37 46 40 66 37 70 36 55 51 Netherlands 71 63 68 62 60 63 58 75 67 65 57 65 89 74 69 Portugal 48 44 50 54 44 36 62 59 61 65 58 64 60 41 50 Spain 54 39 39 39 23 65 64 52 56 78 63 77 50 58 54 Sweden 69 65 63 64 53 73 69 65 65 68 65 70 71 75 68 UK 72 38 55 64 48 79 68 65 69 64 53 62 56 68 63 Bulgaria 27 12 44 55 41 42 21 24 21 22 28 15 27 28 29 Czech Republic 48 78 77 65 63 34 60 63 64 44 61 46 57 57 57 Estonia 41 50 58 63 46 70 79 77 83 36 66 41 56 54 54 Hungary 34 58 51 62 42 34 53 52 54 25 52 24 21 39 41 Latvia 38 29 41 54 56 55 54 55 58 20 54 16 30 43 42 Lithuania 54 24 40 59 69 71 53 52 55 19 53 22 34 49 47 Poland 44 62 54 64 68 48 73 73 72 38 50 37 26 50 51 Romania 38 31 20 60 28 18 25 21 22 23 26 19 18 28 30 Slovakia 44 91 47 50 55 35 42 55 44 36 43 33 55 44 48 Slovenia 44 80 70 58 70 52 63 69 70 53 71 61 46 61 59 Croatia 33 54 38 53 73 35 54 41 49 42 51 38 38 36 42 North Macedonia 15 44 13 0 60 24 6 0 14 27 0 24 37 6 17 Turkey 37 0 45 50 0 23 47 35 47 19 0 42 37 25 29 Montenegro 28 24 24 15 69 30 21 21 15 35 60 28 43 28 31 Iceland 78 77 76 67 11 72 51 60 51 72 71 71 71 75 69 Albania 13 57 13 30 25 24 12 25 16 35 18 42 17 18 23 BIH 15 40 13 0 66 24 11 6 5 28 42 33 37 10 21 Serbia 21 29 14 31 61 31 32 32 30 29 42 21 50 21 28 The table shows the standartized z-scores on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest, for the 35 countries in the Index in the basic indicators in the respective category. Missing data was imputed following the methodology described in this report.

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Catch-Up Index 2019: Democracy Scores (in z-scores on a scale 100-0)* Satisfaction Trust in Voice and Human E- with Democracy Indices Media Freedom People Accountability Rights participation democracy Press Economist Freedom of Disrespect Democracy Freedom Freedom Satisfaction Intelligence the Press Voice and for human Score Trust in House score Index by E-participation with Unit score by Accountability - rights by Democracy Scores people Freedom in Reporters index democracy % Democracy Freedom WGI Global the World without Index House Peace Index Borders Country 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 Austria 70 57 60 61 59 65 67 62 49 62 Belgium 61 57 64 51 72 72 68 62 38 62 Cyprus 40 17 61 51 58 52 54 48 48 49 Denmark 89 91 65 76 72 77 72 62 76 74 Finland 78 93 69 76 72 81 72 62 76 75 France 45 58 56 59 54 51 62 62 71 57 Germany 67 53 61 67 62 67 69 62 64 64 Greece 27 36 52 48 32 36 49 33 57 42 Ireland 73 69 65 76 64 66 66 62 66 68 Italy 41 55 55 50 48 45 55 48 69 51 Luxembourg 82 67 66 69 69 64 70 62 66 69 Malta 59 51 57 56 58 35 57 48 52 54 Netherlands 78 72 68 73 73 79 71 62 74 72 Portugal 61 46 64 57 66 71 62 62 60 61 Spain 42 55 61 61 52 51 56 33 74 54 Sweden 73 79 69 78 73 80 71 62 66 73 UK 44 58 60 65 56 51 67 62 74 59 Bulgaria 32 34 43 42 34 23 32 19 56 35 Czech Republic 58 39 57 52 61 45 52 62 16 53 Estonia 59 51 61 55 67 72 63 62 62 61 Hungary 51 50 30 36 32 33 32 33 30 36 Latvia 49 43 52 49 54 56 48 62 26 51 Lithuania 43 45 57 49 61 51 51 62 45 52 Poland 59 46 48 36 44 37 45 48 59 45 Romania 31 48 44 34 39 43 35 33 30 38 Slovakia 46 34 53 44 54 48 50 62 46 49 Slovenia 43 48 61 49 58 50 53 62 47 53 Croatia 25 31 49 35 36 36 38 48 40 38 North Macedonia 29 17 16 26 7 31 18 33 29 22 Turkey 39 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 11 Montenegro 14 43 23 21 32 28 23 48 35 28 Iceland 73 86 61 81 68 66 68 62 26 70 Albania 37 7 27 25 23 35 26 33 38 27 BIH 15 17 8 9 23 36 10 48 0 18 Serbia 14 41 26 33 26 32 19 48 47 30 The table shows the standartized z-scores on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest, for the 35 countries in the index in the basic indicators in the respective category. Missing data was imputed following the methodology described in this report.

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Catch-Up Index 2019: Democracy Scores (in z-scores on a scale 100-0)* Satisfaction Trust in Voice and Human E- with Democracy Indices Media Freedom People Accountability Rights participation democracy Press Economist Freedom of Disrespect Democracy Freedom Freedom Satisfaction Intelligence the Press Voice and for human Score Trust in House score Index by E-participation with Unit score by Accountability - rights by Democracy Scores people Freedom in Reporters index democracy % Democracy Freedom WGI Global the World without Index House Peace Index Borders Country 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 Austria 70 57 60 61 59 65 67 62 49 62 Belgium 61 57 64 51 72 72 68 62 38 62 Cyprus 40 17 61 51 58 52 54 48 48 49 Denmark 89 91 65 76 72 77 72 62 76 74 Finland 78 93 69 76 72 81 72 62 76 75 France 45 58 56 59 54 51 62 62 71 57 Germany 67 53 61 67 62 67 69 62 64 64 Greece 27 36 52 48 32 36 49 33 57 42 Ireland 73 69 65 76 64 66 66 62 66 68 Italy 41 55 55 50 48 45 55 48 69 51 Luxembourg 82 67 66 69 69 64 70 62 66 69 Malta 59 51 57 56 58 35 57 48 52 54 Netherlands 78 72 68 73 73 79 71 62 74 72 Portugal 61 46 64 57 66 71 62 62 60 61 Spain 42 55 61 61 52 51 56 33 74 54 Sweden 73 79 69 78 73 80 71 62 66 73 UK 44 58 60 65 56 51 67 62 74 59 Bulgaria 32 34 43 42 34 23 32 19 56 35 Czech Republic 58 39 57 52 61 45 52 62 16 53 Estonia 59 51 61 55 67 72 63 62 62 61 Hungary 51 50 30 36 32 33 32 33 30 36 Latvia 49 43 52 49 54 56 48 62 26 51 Lithuania 43 45 57 49 61 51 51 62 45 52 Poland 59 46 48 36 44 37 45 48 59 45 Romania 31 48 44 34 39 43 35 33 30 38 Slovakia 46 34 53 44 54 48 50 62 46 49 Slovenia 43 48 61 49 58 50 53 62 47 53 Croatia 25 31 49 35 36 36 38 48 40 38 North Macedonia 29 17 16 26 7 31 18 33 29 22 Turkey 39 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 11 Montenegro 14 43 23 21 32 28 23 48 35 28 Iceland 73 86 61 81 68 66 68 62 26 70 Albania 37 7 27 25 23 35 26 33 38 27 BIH 15 17 8 9 23 36 10 48 0 18 Serbia 14 41 26 33 26 32 19 48 47 30 The table shows the standartized z-scores on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest, for the 35 countries in the index in the basic indicators in the respective category. Missing data was imputed following the methodology described in this report.

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Catch-Up Index 2019: Governance Scores (in z-scores on a scale 100-0)* Rule of E- Corruption Political Stability Government Regulations Conflict and tensions Law government

Political Governance Stability E- Corruption Control of Political and Governement Global Score Regulatory Rule of Homicide government Perception Corruption instability Absence Effectiveness Peace Quality (WGI) Law (WGI) rates (UN) Developmen Governance Scores Index (TI) (WGI) EIU of (WGI) Index t Index Violence (WGI) Country 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 100-0 Austria 68 69 70 68 67 72 68 77 64 62 68 Belgium 68 60 46 60 60 63 67 59 43 57 59 Cyprus 45 54 51 53 52 54 55 41 57 49 51 Denmark 84 69 59 73 69 74 77 71 59 81 72 Finland 80 69 72 76 76 76 77 65 51 74 73 France 62 52 38 64 56 65 65 59 53 73 59 Germany 75 69 50 71 74 67 72 65 55 72 67 Greece 34 54 24 36 24 29 28 29 62 51 38 Ireland 67 69 69 62 68 64 69 59 62 62 66 Italy 37 40 39 40 43 35 38 47 64 60 43 Luxembourg 77 69 80 71 71 71 74 65 63 63 72 Malta 44 40 78 54 63 60 54 47 59 55 55 Netherlands 77 69 63 75 79 73 73 65 66 72 71 Portugal 53 69 72 63 49 59 58 77 64 56 61 Spain 45 52 41 56 50 56 45 56 64 65 52 Sweden 79 69 65 74 74 75 76 71 57 75 72 UK 77 57 40 67 72 68 73 56 55 78 63 Bulgaria 28 52 44 33 39 24 27 53 56 36 38 Czech Republic 45 54 68 55 60 58 47 71 65 34 57 Estonia 63 46 53 58 71 62 64 41 22 66 57 Hungary 30 60 58 41 40 44 35 47 41 38 43 Latvia 47 52 47 52 54 55 46 44 19 32 45 Lithuania 48 46 56 54 55 55 47 47 0 45 47 Poland 49 31 48 46 49 42 53 35 64 53 46 Romania 34 54 32 10 35 37 31 53 54 25 34 Slovakia 37 54 60 47 45 45 39 53 58 36 47 Slovenia 50 69 61 59 38 57 56 59 67 49 56 Croatia 35 46 55 44 33 36 37 47 58 33 41 North Macedonia 18 8 20 26 37 18 21 20 49 17 25 Turkey 24 2 0 22 16 16 25 0 4 35 13 Montenegro 32 11 28 26 27 26 30 29 1 32 29 Iceland 70 69 81 68 66 66 71 83 70 62 70 Albania 22 28 45 22 23 10 18 35 30 22 25 BIH 22 2 15 0 2 18 12 17 54 0 12 Serbia 25 37 33 29 13 19 19 35 52 36 27 The table shows the standartized z-scores on a scale from 100 to 0, highest to lowest, for the 35 countries in the index in the basic indicators in the respective category. Missing data was imputed following the methodology described in this report.

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Supplement II: Country Abbreviations

EU28 - European Union with the 28 member states EU15+2 – the 15 member states before the 2004 enlargement plus Cyprus and Malta EU10+1 – the countries of the fifth enlargement in 2004, 2007 as well as Croatia in 2013 CC – Candidate countries PCC – Potential candidate countries

BE Belgium CZ Czech Republic BG Bulgaria DK Denmark D-E East Germany DE Germany D-W West Germany EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FR France IE Ireland IT Italy CY Republic of Cyprus * CY (tcc) Zone not controlled by the government of the Republic of Cyprus LT Lithuania LV Latvia LU Luxembourg HU Hungary MT Malta NL Netherlands AT Austria PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania SI Slovenia SK Slovakia FI Finland SE Sweden UK HR Croatia TR Turkey

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MK Republic of Macedonia

Supplement III: About the Catch Up Index. How is the “Catching-Up” Measured?

The Catch-Up Index is a composite index, using a specifically designed model developed by EuPI of OSI- Sofia. The Catch-Up Index includes 35 countries selected on a political criteria as it covers the 28 EU member states, the candidate and potential candidate countries. The only exception is Kosovo, as there is not enough comparable statistical data available about it and despite the efforts, the lack of data left Kosovo outside of the Index. The metric is based on rescaling the raw data on a scale from 0 to 100 (lowest to highest) to establish each country’s score, and ranking each country from 1 to 35 (highest to lowest). The standardized scores make possible different rankings, comparisons, benchmarking, monitoring of performance for countries and groups of countries across categories and indicators and contribute to policy analysis and recommendations. The Catch-Up Index contains four categories - Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance for the 35 countries included in the Index. There are scores for each category: Economy Score, Quality of Life Score, Democracy Score and Governance Score and each category has an equal weight with the other categories. There is an Overall Score, composed of the scores for the four categories. Each category is measured through selected indicators and sub-indicators. The various data for the indicators is converted into scores, weighted on the basis of the Index methodology. The indicator scores make up the scores for the four different categories. The weights have been attributed to the indicators or sub-indicators by the expert team, based on the importance assigned to them. The Catch-Up Index was initially designed to capture the progress of the EU10 countries in matching the rest of the EU in the categories of Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance. But the Index allows for much broader observations and findings to be made by examining the performance of the 35 countries, comparing them across the four categories and 47 indicators and sub- indicators, and eliciting conclusions from the interdependence between the factors that define the performance. The Index allows for what is essentially multi-dimensional mapping of present-day Europe by superimposing the four fundamental categories. The index data do not only indicate a country’s progress or degree of similarity relative to its peers, but also how far it is from the desired goals.

Benchmarking the EU10 In addition to the ranking of countries according to their score, there are also several benchmarks to help measure the catch up index - the average, maximum and minimum scores by groups. There are four main and one additional such benchmarks. First, there is the EU15+2 Average Score, calculated as

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The Catch-Up Index 2019 the compare means scores of the 15 "old" EU member states plus Cyprus and Malta, which are considered as part of this group too ("Western" countries vs post-communist countries). Second, there is the EU15+2 Max (maximum) score of the highest ranking country in this group. Third, there is the EU15+2 Min (minimum) score of the lowest ranking country in this group. Fourth, there is the EU10 Average Score, calculated as the compare means scores of the 10 "new" EU member states scores. Fifth, there is the EU28 Average Score, calculated as the compare means of the scores of all 28 EU member states. Being aware of the limitations of Catch Up Index model and in order to provide readers with the opportunity to take advantage of the Catch-Up Index data, a special online platform has been created at www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu , where users can both view and work interactively with the data. The users of the platform can create their own “catching up” models and comparisons across countries and indicators, and visualize the outcomes in different ways.

The Economy category explained: Methodology notes The Economy category measures the economic performance and potential of the countries in the index. Each of the four categories in the Catch Up Index are ascribed equal importance in terms of calculating a country’s overall score. The Economy category is measured through a set of nine indicators, each of which captures a different aspect of economic performance. Some indicators gauge more than one aspect of economic performance. The metrics of the indicators are based on 14 sub-indicators, of varying weightings. The specific indicators and the weightings assigned to the sub-indicators reflect the unique model of the Catch Up Index. The raw data used for the indicators (e.g. GDP per capita or other composite indicator scores or coefficients) are converted into a Catch-Up Index score on a scale of 0 to 100 (lowest to highest) to allow for a standardized score that can be compared across countries or categories and indicators. Each of the indicators has different weight assigned to it, according to its importance in the Catch Up Index model.

Economy Indicators Sub-indicators Weight*

GDP per capita GDP per capita in PPS, EU28=100 25% (0,25)

Government debt General government debt (% of GDP) 13% (0,125)

Credit ratings Sovereign credit ratings 13% (0,125)

Employment Employment rate % 8% (0,083)

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Energy Intensity Energy intensity of the economy 8% (0,083)

Information Society Information and Communication Technology 8% (0,083)

Patents granted by USPTO per capita 4% (0,042) Research and Development High-tech exports as % of manufactured exports 4% (0,042)

Doing Business rank 4% (0,042) Market development Economic Freedom score 4% (0,042)

Motorways per area 1000 km2 2% (0,021)

Motorways per 100,000 inhabitants 2% (0,021) Transport infrastructure Other roads per 1000 km2 2% (0,021)

Other roads per 100,000 inhabitants 2% (0,021)

***The weight in percentages is an approximation, and the weight is also provided in fractions (the total sum is 100% or 1).

GDP per Capita (PPS with EU28=100 basis, Eurostat) remains the most important indicator of economic activity and is assigned 25% (0.25) weight in the total Economy category.

Government Debt, measured as a % of GDP, is second in importance with 12.5%. The global economic calamities of recent years, and especially the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, have clearly demonstrated the critical importance of government debt as a factor for the economic vitality of a country.

The Sovereign Credit Ratings – or creditworthiness and level of investment risk - of a country are also attributed high importance in the index, with a 12.5% (0,125) weight. The index uses a composite, rescaled score of the ratings of the three major agencies (Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poors).

Employment, with a weight of 8% (0,083) is a measure of an economy’s potential to generate jobs and integrate as much as possible of the labor force in the labor market; this is measured through the share of working-age people in employment.

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Energy Intensity, also ascribed an 8% weighting, is a measure of an economy’s energy efficiency, calculating energy consumption divided by GDP as kilogram of oil equivalent per €1000. Energy intensity is also an important measure of an economy’s competitiveness, because high energy inefficiency incurs more costs in production and services.

Research and Development, again with a weight of 8% (0,083) is a measure of the level of development and the “quality” of contemporary economies, including their competiveness. The index uses two sub- indicators. The first is the number of patents registered from a country with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) annually on a per capita basis. The second indicator is the share of high- tech exports in a country’s manufactured exports.

The Market Development indicator (also 8% (0,083)) is the composite score of two sub-indicators – the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business ranking and the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom. The latter defines the highest form of economic freedom as “an absolute right of property ownership, fully realized freedoms of movement for labor, capital, and goods, and an absolute absence of coercion or constraint of economic liberty beyond the extent necessary for citizens to protect and maintain liberty itself.”

The Transport Infrastructure Indicator (8% (0,083)) is a measure of a country’s economic development and its potential for economic activity. The index uses four sub-indicators, based on calculating coefficients of motorways and other roads on a per capita and country area basis.

The ingredients of democracy: Methodology notes Catching up in Democracy is essential for the post-communist member states of the EU, particularly given that the Copenhagen accession criteria for EU membership primarily focused on democracy. But although EU membership has often been perceived as a watershed in the political transition of the EU10 group, or even the end of that transition, it now appears that the newer members may not have achieved parity with more developed European nations in their progress in building democratic institutions and societies. The Catch-Up Index was designed to analyse several aspects of democracy that are of particular significance for the newer member states, and those that are aspiring to be. The Democracy category has equal weighting with the other three categories in the Catch-Up Index (Economy, Quality of Life and Governance). This category is measured through a set of seven indicators, which use nine sub-indicators. The raw data drawn from opinion polls and other composite indicator scores are converted into the Catch-Up Index score on a scale of 0 to 100 (lowest to highest) to give a 76 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

The Catch-Up Index 2019 standardized score that allows for comparison across countries, categories and indicators. Each of the indicators has a different weight assigned to it according to its importance in the index model.

Democracy Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

Freedom House score Freedom in the World 20% (0,195) Democracy Indices Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index 20% (0,195)

Freedom House Freedom of the Press score 10% (0,98) Media Freedom Reporters without Borders Press Freedom Index 10% (0,98)

Satisfaction with democracy Satisfaction with democracy % 10% (0,98)

Trust in People Trust in people 10% (0,98)

Voice and Accountability Voice and Accountability - WGI 10% (0,98)

Human Rights Political terror by Global Peace Index 10% (0,98)

E-participation E-participation index 2% (0,024)

***The weight in percentages is an approximation, and the weight is also provided in fractions (the total sum is 100% or 1).

The first indicator used to measure democracy is composed of two established composite democracy indexes – those of Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Each was attributed very high importance in the Democracy category with 20% (0,195) weight (or 40% for both) because they assess the overall democracy in a country. The Freedom of the World index was used from Freedom House, rather than the specialized post-communist states’ Nations in Transit index, because it does not encompass the Western European states. The EIU Democracy Index was used because its scores are more nuanced than the Freedom of the World scores, which allows for better distinction between the quality of in the European states. Media Freedom was attributed special attention in the Catch-Up Index because the media is essential to the democratic process – especially in the post-communist states. The Catch-Up Index relies again on two established media freedom indexes – of Freedom House and of Reporters without Borders. Each is assigned 10% (0,98) weight, giving the Media Freedom indicator a 20% overall weight. Satisfaction with Democracy measures the attitude of citizens towards the democratic systems of governance in their countries. This is one of the only two indicators (along with Trust in People) that relies on public opinion surveys (in this case the main source is Eurobarometer), and the scores are based on the proportion of citizens who approve their countries’ democratic systems.

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Trust in People measures the level of people’s trust of those who are outside of their immediate family or close friends. Literature abounds on the importance of trust for democracy - above all Francis Fukuyama’s “Trust”,– or economy and the successful organization of society. In this case, the Catch-Up Index employs the measure of Trust in People as a proxy for civil society development, given the limitations of available data on similar indicators for all the countries in the index. Voice and Accountability, with a weight of 10% (0,98) , is a composite indicator of the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). This includes perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media. The WGI scores also use World Bank assessments and reports that are not publicly available. Absence of Political terror is also deemed essential for a functioning democracy and carries a weight of 10%. The scores are based on Global Peace Index “Political terror” indicator, e.g. identifying state terror, or violations of physical and personal integrity rights carried out by the state. E-participation (2% (0,024)) measures the level of participation in decision-making, governance or similar activities that is enabled by Information and Communication Technologies. For example, the facilitation of citizens’ political participation through internet or cellular technologies within the broader “e-democracy” concept. Facebook advocacy or the “twitter revolutions” offer specific examples of similar phenomena.

Quality of Life: Methodology notes Quality of Life is the category most influenced by the “bottom-up” approach in constructing the index. The metrics of the category have been designed to establish how wealthy people are and to what degree social issues affect them, such as income inequality, risk of poverty and long-term unemployment. The indicators also aim to assess levels of access to higher education and the quality of education available, as well as whether people are living longer, healthier lives with access to good quality healthcare services. These criteria are prerequisites for individuals to have good quality of life and for the “health” and successful development of society at large. It does not come as a surprise that the majority of the citizens of the newer member states (and the candidates) associate EU membership above all with improved quality of life, at least closer to that of their more established EU counterparts. The raw data used for the indicators (e.g. life expectancy in years, and other composite indicator scores or coefficients) are converted into the standardized Catch-Up Index score, on a scale from 0 to 100 (lowest to highest), to allow for comparison across countries’ categories and indicators. As was the case in the other categories, each of the indicators has a different weight assigned to it, reflecting its importance in the Catch-Up Index model.

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Quality of Life Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

Welfare of consumers Actual individual consumption with EU28=100 20% (0,2)

Inequality - Gini coefficient 7% (0,067)

Social issues Relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap (%) 7% (0,067)

Long-term unemployment rate (%) 7% (0,067)

Share (%) of early school leavers 5% (0,05)

Share of population (%) with university degree 5%(0,05)

Education PISA* score in reading literacy 3% (0,033)

PISA score mathematical literacy 3% (0,033)

PISA score in scientific literacy 3% (0,033)

Healthy life expectancy at birth in years 5% (0,05)

Life expectancy in years 5% (0,05) Health Infant mortality by age of 5 5% (0,05)

EuroHealth Consumer Index 5% (0,05)

Human Development Human Development Index (UN) 20% (0,2)

* Programme for International Student Assessment (OECD).

**The weight in percentages is an approximation, and the weight is also provided in fractions (the total sum is 100% or 1).

Welfare of Consumers is attributed 20% (0,2) weight in the category. It is based on data from Eurostat’s Actual Individual Consumption dataset, which is calculated on EU28=100 basis (rescaling each country’s data as a fraction of the EU mean). The Social Issues indicator, with a total weight of 21%, comprises three sub-indicators that measure different aspects of social problems in a society. The first assesses social inequality using the Gini coefficient – the greater the inequality, the lower a country’s score in the index. The second sub- indicator is based on Eurostat’s relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap indicator. The third sub-indicator measures long-term unemployment in society, which signals the existence of more deep-seated social problems that the basic unemployment rate. The Education indicator has been designed to reflect primarily the quality of education, rather than the quantity, given that the GDP share of education or the number of teachers or students do not always 79 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

The Catch-Up Index 2019 correspond to good outcomes. This is especially valid with regard to the new member states, where often inefficient and unreformed systems produce poor results, notwithstanding the funds or manpower channelled into them. As is the case with many of the index indicators, their data can also be useful in assessing other aspects of the same category or, in this case, other categories. For example, as well as being a key indicator for Quality of life, education is relevant in assessing economic potential, democracy and good governance. The sub-indicator on early school-leavers assesses the share of young people giving up education and training prematurely; this may also help to gauge broader social problems. The second sub-indicator is the share of the population that hold university degrees. The next three education-related sub- indicators are based on the results of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The PISA scores go beyond the performance of high-school students and survey the broader state of a country’s education sector, for example qualification levels of teachers and the quality of universities. The Health indicator is likewise designed to focus more on the outcomes than on less indicative criteria such as share of GDP or the number of medical workers. One sub-indicator is life expectancy, measuring how many years a person is expected to live, while another is healthy life expectancy, specifically taking into account life without major illness. The indicator for infant mortality is also indicative of the broader state of health services or social services in a country (or even the state of society more broadly) because it assesses the likelihood of children surviving to the age to 5. The fourth sub-indicator is a composite of the EuroHealth Consumer Index by the Health Consumer Powerhouse, which measures the quality of healthcare systems in a country (including by outcome).

The United Nations’ Human Development Index is a composite index measuring life expectancy, literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide. It has similar dimensions to the Catch-Up Index, but includes additional data and methodology, which complements the other indicators but does not overlap with them.

Governance category explained: Methodology notes The newer and aspiring members typically perceive established EU member states to be well-governed, politically stable, have low levels of corruption, effective governance, a successful rule of law, and an absence of substantial tensions, conflicts and crime. Indeed, from a wider perspective this impression is accurate. The EU is truly an oasis of stable and well-governed states by comparison with some of the more unstable or failing states in other parts of the world. The EU is very much geared toward instilling “good governance” through its common institutions and the acquis communautaire.

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But comparisons between EU members and aspiring candidates reveal differences even among relatively homogenous groups. Some of these differences are made strongly apparent, as in the case of the EU’s monitoring of the progress of members Bulgaria and Romania in fighting corruption, organized crime and judicial reform, and the conditionality imposed on candidates. The Catch-Up Index measures the quality of governance in a country through seven indicators based on ten sub-indicators.

Governance Indicators Sub-indicators Weight

Corruption Perceptions Index - Transparency International 8% (0,08) Corruption Control of Corruption - World Governance Indicators 8% (0,08)

Political instability by Economist Intelligence Unit 8% (0,08)

Political stability Political Stability and Absence of Violence - World Governance 8%(0,08) Indicators

Government Government effectiveness - World Governance Indicators 16% (0,16) effectiveness

Regulatory quality Regulatory quality - World Governance Indicators 16% (0,16)

Rule of law Rule of Law – World Governance Indicators 16% (0,16)

Conflicts and tensions in the country - selected Global Peace 8% (0,08) Conflict, tensions and Index indicators crime Homicide rates per 100,000 population 8% (0,08)

E-government E-government development index 4% (0,04)

*The weight in percentages is an approximation, and the weight is also provided in fractions (the total sum is 100% or 1)

The Corruption indicator is essential for gauging the quality of governance because corruption affects all aspects of the decision-making and implementation process. The Corruption indicator has a weighting of 16% in the Governance category, divided between two sub-indicators – Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index and the Control of Corruption dimension of the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators. The first indicator measures public perceptions of the level of corruption in a country. The second indicator as defined by its authors “captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private interests.” The second indicator measures a country’s level of Political stability, as in the threat of government destabilization through social unrest or unconstitutional or violent means through two sub-indicators. 81 www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

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These are the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Political Instability Index and the Political Stability and Absence of Violence dimension of the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators. The EIU scores “show the level of threat posed to governments by social protest.” The World Bank indicator measures “the perceptions of the likelihood that the government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including domestic violence and terrorism.” The level of political stability indicates any flaws in governance. Although this indicator also relates to democracy – in terms of the channelling of discontent through the process of representation and problem solving – political stability is more of a measure of governance. The indicator‘s weight is 16% divided between the two sub-indicators. Government effectiveness is an indicator of whether governance is being conducted well; the World Bank states that it “captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such policies.” Government effectiveness also has a weighting of 16% in the Governance category. Regulatory quality is another World Governance Indicators that “captures perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development.” This indicator too has a 16% weighting. Rule of law is essential for good governance, as the newest EU members and candidates have found out the hard way. The indicator is again based on the World Governance Indicators, which state that it “captures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.” Conflict, tensions and crime is a composite indicator, based on two sub-indicators relating to a country’s crime levels and conflicts and tensions. The conflicts and tensions sub-indicator is based on selected data from the Global Peace Index (Institute for Economics and Peace/Economist Intelligence Unit). The homicide rate on a per capita basis serves as a proxy for measuring the crime levels in a country, because data pertaining to other reported crimes is less easily comparable (different definitions or practices for registering crimes) or country data is unavailable. The indicator’s weight of 16% is divided between the two sub-indicators. The E-government indicator is based on the UN’s E-government surveys and scores. It is included in the index because it is a measure of government efficiency and delivery of services to citizens, and because it facilitates transparency and accountability as the world grows more connected. Moreover, e- government indicates the level of development of contemporary societies. As the UN survey has identified, the scores comprise two basic aspects of e-government, ‘government to citizen’ (G to C) and ‘government to government’ (G to G), with a smaller element of ‘government to business’ interactions. Given that e-government is indicative of many aspects of good governance, but not indispensable, it is ascribed a weight of 4%.

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Note on data sources, timeframe and replacing missing data The Catch-Up Index data collection relied on single sources for each of the indicators, but in case such data was missing, compatible data from other sources based on the same methodology was included. If country data for a specific year was missing, data from the closest period was included in the Index. In case there was no compatible data, the data imputation method was used as explained in the methodological notes. The missing data was replaced using either the statistical procedure, described in the annex or in a limited number of cases - expert-based imputations. In the case with the Index when the data set is about multiple countries, missing data for a given country was replaced with data for a country with very similar characteristics. Where a single sub-indicator included several sources or the data was not numerical (e.g. Credit Agencies Index; Doing Business ranking), the data was rescaled in advance by the project team before being recalculated into z-scores. The data used was mainly released in 2019 and it is the most recently available, but not later than 31 January 2020 so there is a necessarily a time lag in the index.

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Economy Sub-indicators Weight Sources Indicators

GDP per capita in PPS with 0,250 Eurostat, European Central Bank, GDP per capita EU28=100 national statistics

Government General government debt 0,125 Eurostat, national statistics debt (% of GDP)

Fitch, Moody’s, Standard and Poor's Credit ratings Sovereigns credit ratings 0,125 (own calculations of rescaled credit ratings)

Employment as percentage Employment of population, age group 15- 0,083 Eurostat, national statistics 64 Energy intensity of the Energy Intensity 0,083 Eurostat, national statistics economy

Information Information and ICT Development Index, International 0,083 Society Communication Technology Telecommunication Union

Patents granted by USPTO United States Patent and Trademark 0,042 Research and per capita Office Development High-tech exports as % of 0,042 World Bank manifactured exports

Ease of Doing Business, World Bank Doing Business rank 0,042 Market (Rescaled ranking) development Index Economic Freedom, Heritage Economic Freedom score 0,042 Foundation and Wall Street Journal

Motorways per area 1000 0,021 Eurostat, national statistics km2

Motorways per 100000 0,021 Eurostat, national statistics Transport inhabitants infrastructure Other roads per 1000 km2 0,021 Eurostat, national statistics

Other roads per 100000 0,021 Eurostat, national statistics inhabitants

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Democracy Sub-indicators Weight Source Indicators Freedom House score Freedom in the World, Freedom House Democracy Freedom in the World 0,195 Indices Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index, Economist 0,195 Democracy Index Intelligence Unit Freedom of the Press score 0,098 Freedom of the Press, Freedom House by Freedom House Media Freedom Press Freedom Index by Press Freedom Index by Reporters 0,098 Reporters without Borders without Borders Satisfaction Satisfaction with democracy Eurobarometer, European Values 0,098 with democracy % Study, European Quality of Life Survey by Trust in People Trust in people 0,098 Eurofound, European Values Study, World Values Survey Voice and Voice and Accountability - Voice and Accountability of the World 0,098 Accountability WGI Governance Indicators, World Bank Political terror indicator, Global Peace Political terror by Global Political terror 0,098 Index by the Institute for Economics Peace Index and Peace E-government survey, United Nations E-participation E-participation index 0,024 Department of Economic and Social Affairs

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Quality of Life Sub-indicators Weight Sources Indicators

Welfare of Actual individual 0,200 Eurostat, national statistics consumers consumption with EU28=100

Inequality - Gini coefficient 0,067 Eurostat, national statistics

Relative median at-risk-of- 0,067 Eurostat, national statistics Social issues poverty gap (%)

Long term unemployment 0,067 Eurostat, national statistics, UNDP rate (%)

Share (%) of early school 0,050 Eurostat, national statistics, UNDP leavers

Share of population (%) with 0,050 Eurostat, national statistics, UNDP university degree

OECD Programme for International Student Education PISA score in reading literacy 0,033 Assessment (PISA)

PISA score mathematical OECD Programme for International Student 0,033 literacy Assessment (PISA)

PISA score in scientific OECD Programme for International Student 0,033 literacy Assessment (PISA)

Healthy life expectancy at World Health Statistics, World Health 0,050 birth in years Organization

World Health Statistics, World Health Life expectancy in years 0,050 Organization Health World Health Statistics , World Health Infant mortality by age of 5 0,050 Organization

EuroHealth Consumer Index, Health EuroHealth Consumer Index 0,050 Consumer Powerhouse

Human Human Development Index 0,200 Human Development Index, United Nations Development

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Governance Sub-indicators Weight Sources Indicators

Corruption Perception Index, Corruption Perception Index 0,080 Transparency International Corruption Control of Corruption - World Control of Corruption - World 0,080 Governance Indicators Governance Indicators, World Bank

Political instability by The Political Instability Index, 0,080 Economist Intelligence Unit Economist Intelligence Unit Political Stability Political Stability and Absence Political Stability and Absence of of Violence - World 0,080 Violence - World Governance Governance Indicators Indicator, World Bank

Government Government Effectiveness - Government Effectiveness - World 0,160 Effectiveness World Governance Indicators Governance Indicators, World Bank

Regulatory Regulatory Quality - World Regulatory Quality - World 0,160 Quality Governance Indicators Governance Indicators, World Bank

Rule of Law - World Rule of Law - World Governance Rule of Law 0,160 Governance Indicators Indicators, World Bank

Conflicts and tensions in the country, Conflicts and tensions in the based on selected Global Peace Conflict, country - selected Global 0,080 Index (GPI) indicators, GPI is created tensions and Peace Index indicators by the Institute for Economics and crime Peace Homicide rates per 100,000 United Nations Office on Drugs and 0,080 population Crime

E-government development E-government Development Surveys, E-government 0,040 index United Nations

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Supplement IV: Methodology of the Statistical Analysis for the Catch-Up Index

1. Basic Indicators. Sources of information

The Catch-Up Index uses 47 basic indicators for 35 European countries. The data is gathered from different sources. Supplement III: “About the Catch-Up Index. How is the “Catching-Up” Measured?” contains descriptions for each of the basic indicators as well as the time period of the data and their respective sources. The indicators are divided thematically into four categories:

. Economy – 14 indicators; . Democracy – 9 indicators; . Quality of Life – 14 indicators; . Governance – 10 indicators.

2. Procedure for replacing missing data (Data Imputation)

The basic information represents a table (a matrix), size 35 x 47, i.e. 47 indicators for 35 countries, which contain 1,645 absolute values. About 0.5% of them are missing values either because there is no such information gathered or there is no up-to-date data. In these cases, the procedure for data imputation to replace missing data – values – was applied. The procedure was done separately for each of the four basic categories.

Algorithm for data imputation

a. Any of the four categories that contain a basic indicator with a missing value is fixed. It represents a matrix with a size of 35 multiplied by the number of basic indicators, where the countries are in the rows and the indicators are in the columns. b. All indicators (rows) that contain at least one missing value are deleted, thus creating a new matrix with the same number of rows and a smaller number of columns (k). c. Each of the 35 countries included in the index is a point in the k-dimensional space. The Euclidian distances between the side with a missing value and all the other sides are then calculated. d. After the minimal Euclidian distance is calculated, the result is checked against the existing data for the remaining 34 countries and this value is taken to replace the missing value. e. The steps are then repeated until all missing values of the basic indicators in a given category are replaced.

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3. Calculation of standardized value (z-scores)

The Catch Up Index uses basic indicators with different raw data (percentages, diverse index scores, years, etc.). This necessitates the standardization of the values according to a statistical procedure, which recalculates them in one and the same scale and at the same time preserves the order and proportions between them. The standardizing is done following the normalization method of z-scores, which uses mean weighed score and standard deviation.

Algorithm for calculating the standardized values of the basic indicators (z-scores)

4. The mean arithmetic values mean_j for the countries x_ij are calculated for each of the basic indicators, according to the formula:

mean_j = Σ (x_ij)/ 35

where j varies from 1 to 47 (the total number of basic indicators), and i changes from 1 to 35 (the total number of countries).

5. The dispersions for the values on sides x_i is calculated for each of the indicators:

sigma_j = Σ [(x_ij−mean_j)^2] / (N−1),

where j varies from 1 to 47, and i varies from 1 to 35.

This quantity shows how diverse are, on average, the different cases from their mean value.

6. The standardized values – so-called z-scores – are calculated:

z_ij = (x_ij−mean_j) / √sigma_j.

Through this procedure the distribution of the values for the countries for each of the indicators is translated and the mean 0 and dispersion 1 are calculated, while the order and proportions between the values for the different countries are preserved.

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In order to transform the standardized values into scores on a scale from 0 to 100, one more transformation is necessary:

z_ij = z_ij * 20 + 50.

The values smaller than 0 and bigger than 100 (“extreme values”), i.e. those different from the mean value of more than 2.5 standard deviation receive scores 0 and 100, respectively.

The standardized values, achieved as a result of the calculations above, are suitable for further procedures. There is a simple correspondence between these scores and the absolute values (the raw data) of the basic indicators and the only exceptions are the “extreme values” or so- called outliers.

7. Weighting the standardized values. Formation of the four categories Each of the four categories – Economy, Quality of Life, Democracy and Governance contain different numbers of basic indicators with different levels of importance. The level of importance is defined by the authors of the index. That is why the online platform of the Index (www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu) offers two options for its users.

a. The standard index is calculated on the basis of the already defined weights of the basic indicators; b. The creation of custom index – My Index in the online platform – for which each individual user can define the weights for the indicators.

The weights for each indicator, ascribed by the research team, can be found in this section. For each of the four categories, the weights represent a column vector consisting of the respective number of basic indicators. When calculating the weighted standardized values, the formula for matrix multiplication is used. The matrix contains the non-weighted standardized values with rows representing the countries, the columns the basic indicators and the vector the weights. For each separate country, the procedure is to calculate the weighted sum.

8. Formation of the composite Catch Up Index and its Overall Score

The composite Catch Up Index is calculated as an un-weighted mean of the values of each of the four basic categories for each of the 35 European countries included in the index. In other words, each of the four basic categories is equal in importance in respect to the composite Catch Up Index.

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Overall_score_i = (Economy_score_i + Quality_of_life_score_i + Democracy_score_i + Governance_score_i) / 4,

where i varies from 1 to 35 (the total number of countries in the model).

The resulting index is at the basis of the overall ranking of the countries and is subjected to further statistical processing (cluster analysis, correlation analysis, tests for statistical significance, trend analysis).

9. Cluster analysis The research included hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis of the Complete Linkage (Furthest Neighbor) with the help of the SPSS statistical package for analysis and processing of data. The metric system used is the standard Euclidian distance.

Algorithm of the cluster analysis

a. First, each country is the defined as the only one in a single group – i.e. cluster. b. Second, the standard Euclidian distances (2-norm distance) are calculated between the values (the scores) of each pair of countries with the aim to group the countries with the most similarities in one group in relation to their values – the overall score of the Catch Up Index or the scores in any of the four categories. c. The agglomeration of the clusters continues with each other step until all the countries are included in one common group. This process is defined by the distance between two clusters. In the case of the Complete Linkage (Furthest Neighbor) clustering the distance is defined through the maximum standard Euclidian distance between elements from the two clusters. a. D(r,s) = Max {d(i,j) : where element i belongs to cluster r, and j to cluster s}

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d. The decision for the number of clusters is taken by the researcher, in accordance with the desired maximum distance between the elements in each cluster. The bigger the distance, the smaller the number of clusters. e. The cluster analysis is best represented in a dendrogram, which shows the distances between the different clusters as well the elements they are composed of.

10. Tests for statistical significance of differences. The five point rule.

The data on the basis of which the Catch Up Index is calculated are bound to have certain errors. The reason is that some of the basic indicators are based on sociological surveys, others though objective (e.g. GDP per capita) also contain certain errors as a result of the method of their calculation. The procedure for missing data replacement also contributes to the size of the overall error. This necessitates the implementation of tests for statistical significance of differences (compare means) between the different standardized values (z-scores) of the Overall Score and the scores of countries in different categories. The results of these tests show that a difference of five or less standardized scores is not statistically significant with a significance level of α = 0.05. This means that with a confidence level γ = 1−α = 0.95 = 95% it can be claimed that the standardized values of the countries in the Catch Up Index and the four categories vary within ±5 z-points. This conclusion should be taken into account when analyzing the results of the cluster analysis.

11. Correlation analysis

The Pearson correlation coefficients are calculated for each of the pairs in the vectors: Overall Score, Economy Score, Quality of Life Score, Democracy Score and Governance Score. They demonstrate that at a significant level α = 0.01, each of the two pair vectors have strong linear correlation, with each correlation coefficients are bigger than 0.9.

12. Graphs, linear trends and their confidence intervals

The direct consequence of the correlation analysis is that between two of the five indices – i.e. Overall Score, Economy Score, Quality of Life Score, Democracy Score and Governance Score – there is a strong direct correlation, which is represented by a corresponding linear trend (straight line with a positive slope).The coefficients in the equations of these straight lines are calculated using the method of linear regression. Each of the straight lines should be observed and analyzed in the corresponding confidence interval, which is determined by the value of their determination coefficient (R-square), which in this case is equal to the square of the respective Pearson correlation.

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The European Catch-Up Index Project

Catch-Up Index methodology

Georgi Stoytchev, Assya Kavrakova, Georgi Angelov, Marin Lessenski

Consultants in methodology development

Alexey Pamporov, Boyan Zahariev, Svetla Avramova, Georgi Ganev, Ognyan Minchev, Petko Georgiev, Georgi Prohasky, Daniel Smilov, Duhomir Minev, Dessislava Nikolova, Liliana Dudeva, Kaloyan Staykov

Statistical processing

Petya Brainova, Dragomira Belcheva

Maps design

Milen Minchev

Catch-Up Index online platform at www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

Sirma Group Corp.

Project manager

Marin Lessenski

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About EuPI

The European Policy Initiative (EuPI) of Open Society Institute – Sofia Foundation aims to contribute to improving the ability of new member states to effectively impact common European policies through good quality research, policy recommendations, networking and advocacy. The initiative operates in the ten new member states from CEE through a network of experts and policy institutes.

Web-site www.osis.bg

Web-site: http://www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu

Main research reports:

“How Hard Can It Be? Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2018”

“The Media Literacy Index 2019: Just Think about It”

“Try harder. Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2017”

“Common Sense Wanted: Resilience to ‘Post-Truth’ And Its Predictors In The New Media Literacy Index 2018”

“Can this be true? Predictors of media literacy and resilience to the post-truth phenomenon in Europe”

“Don’t Stop Now Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2016” contains the findings of the Catch-Up Index 2016 edition.

“Don't Panic: Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2015” contains the findings of the Catch-Up Index 2015 edition.

“The Gravity Effect: Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2014”, contains the findings of the Catch- Up Index 2014 edition.

“It’s a Process: Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2013” contains the findings of the Catch-Up Index 2013 edition.

“Aftershocks: What Did the Crisis Do to Europe?” contains the findings of the Catch-Up Index 2012 edition.

“State of the Union: A Big Bang Theory of Europe” contains the findings of the first edition of the Catch- Up Index 2011.

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“The Unfinished Business of the Fifth Enlargement Countries” analyzes the problems faced by the ten new member states after their accession to the EU in eleven policy areas including political development, the economy, the healthcare system and education.

A series of reports "The EU New Member States as Agenda Setters in the Enlarged European Union" look at the positions of the new Central and Eastern European EU Member States on a selected number of issues on the EU agenda in seven policy areas: economic issues, minority integration, energy and climate, common agriculture policy, foreign and security policy, justice and home affairs and institutional issues.

The publication "Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area in the post-Lehman Brothers’ World" (Summary report and nine Country Reports) is developed within the project “Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro area in the post-Lehman Brothers’ World”.

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www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu A special online platform was created at www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu, where users can view and work interactively with the data of the index, make comparisons across countries and indicators and visualize the outcomes in different ways.

There are basically three modes of usage. There is the Catch-Up Index standard format, which is generated on the basis of EuPI's own model. Alternatively, users can produce their own custom catch-up index by selecting categories and indicators and changing their weights. The third usage mode allows for country by country comparison across selected indicators or benchmarks.

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