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Tunisia and Egypt in the Post-Arab Spring Process

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Tunisia and Egypt in the Post-Arab Spring Process Democratic Transitions in Comparative Perspective: Tunisia and Egypt in the Post-Arab Spring Process Author: Nazim Eryilmaz Persistent link: http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:107424 This work is posted on eScholarship@BC, Boston College University Libraries. Boston College Electronic Thesis or Dissertation, 2017 Copyright is held by the author, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise noted. DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: TUNISIA AND EGYPT IN THE POST- ARAB SPRING PROCESS NAZIM ERYILMAZ A Master’s thesis submitted to the Faculty of the program in Middle Eastern Studies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Boston College Morrissey College of Arts and Sciences Graduate School April 2017 © Copyright 2017 NAZIM ERYILMAZ DEMOCRATIC TRANSITIONS IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: TUNISIA AND EGYPT IN THE POST-ARAB SPRING PROCESS NAZIM ERYILMAZ Advisor: Professor Ali Banuazizi, Ph.D. Abstract How can one think of the possibility of emergence of democracy in non-Western countries? Such an idea had been approached in pessimism for a long time in academia. This is because the conditions deemed indispensable for democratic development (such as high rates of urbanization and literacy) rarely existed in those countries. Thus, the concept “Western democracy” was considered an oxymoron, since, according to earlier scholars of democracy, only Western polities could meet the conditions/prerequisites for the genesis of democracy. Nevertheless, this long-held prophecy was challenged as non-Western countries demonstrated significant progress towards establishing a democratic rule, despite having “so-called” unfavorable conditions (such as religion or poor economic performance) to democratic development. Despite this global resurgence of democratic governance, the countries in the Middle East and North Africa were never able to develop a democratic rule, a situation that has long been explained by pointing at the “exceptional” characteristics (primarily Islam) inherent in the region. Yet, the events that began on December 17, 2010 in Tunisia opened up the possibility for the countries that had been long-ruled by autocrats to embark on a democratic transition. The uprisings that eventually unseated longtime authoritarian rulers (only occurred in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya) enabled divergent socio-political forces to become involved in transitional processes in the aftermath of regime breakdowns. However, only the first two cases had meaningful steps that were taken towards sustaining the transition. This research has been built on the argument that four key factors have played important roles in transitional processes of these two cases, namely Tunisia (the transition to a democratic governance) and Egypt (the restoration of a new form of authoritarianism): the formation of the state, pact-making compromises among revolutionary actors, moderation of religious parties, and civil society activism. In addition to explaining the divergence in these two countries’ transitional processes, this research has been written in response to the prolonged pessimism that the regimes in the region are destined to stay non-democratic. For my parents, Necla and Erdogan Eryilmaz And for those who opposed tyranny for the sake of freedom… Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND DIAGRAMS ................................................................................ iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................... iv INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER I ................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.1. Democratization: How and Where is It Possible? .............................................................................. 7 1.2. Reconsidering the Arab Uprisings ................................................................................................... 14 1.3. The Problem of Authoritarian Resiliency and The Arab Uprisings ................................................. 16 CHAPTER II ............................................................................................................................................. 20 2.1. Tunisia’s Revolution ........................................................................................................................ 20 2.1.1. How did the Tunisian uprising begin? ...................................................................................... 21 2.2. The Aftermath of Downfall of Ben Ali’s Regime: Interim Governments ....................................... 24 2.3. The Changing Face of Tunisian Politics: The 2011 Elections ......................................................... 28 2.4. Ennahdha’s Rise to Power ............................................................................................................... 31 2.5. The Incorporation of Shari’a into the Constitution .......................................................................... 34 2.6. Transitional Politics in Tunisia: 2011-2013 ..................................................................................... 36 2.7. The Lustration Law: The Most Decisive Compromise of Ennahdha............................................... 40 2.8. Alternation of Power: The Legislative and Presidential Elections of 2014 ..................................... 42 2.9. Politics of Concession ...................................................................................................................... 44 2.10. Challenges and Prospects ............................................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER III ........................................................................................................................................... 47 3.1. Egypt’s Tahrir Revolution ............................................................................................................... 47 3.1.1. How did the Egyptian uprising begin? ...................................................................................... 48 3.2. Post-Regime Breakdown: The SCAF Overseeing the Transition .................................................... 53 3.3. Opposition Against The Military Rule ............................................................................................. 56 3.4. Parliamentary Elections in The “Protected” Transition ................................................................... 58 3.5. Power Struggles Between The Military and Islamists ..................................................................... 61 3.6. Presidential Elections and Its Aftermath .......................................................................................... 63 3.7. Islamists’ Challenging The “Establishment” ................................................................................... 66 3.8. Transition Torn Between The Islamists and The Old State “Establishment” .................................. 68 i 3.9. The End of The First Democratic Experiment ................................................................................. 70 3.10. The Aftermath of The Military Coup: Reversion to Ancien Regime ............................................. 72 CHAPTER IV............................................................................................................................................ 75 4.1. Pathways of Democratization in the MENA .................................................................................... 75 4.1.1. Institutional Explanation: The Formation of The State ............................................................. 80 4.1.2. Consensus Model of Politics: The Role of Conciliatory Pact-Making in Transition ................ 87 4.1.3. Moderation of Islamist Parties .................................................................................................. 93 4.1.4. Civil Society Activism ............................................................................................................ 107 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................................... 116 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................... 123 ii LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND DIAGRAMS Figure 2.1: Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali visits Mohammed Bouazizi in hospital 22 Table 2.1: Classification of Tunisia’s Democratic Performance 29 Table 2.2: 2011 Tunisian Electoral Results 30 Table 2.3: 2014 Tunisian Electoral Results 43 Diagram 4.1: Transitional Outcomes in the Cases of Regime Breakdown in the Context of Arab Spring 75 Table 4.1: Features of the Transition Process in Tunisia and Egypt 76 Table 4.2: The Centrality of Military in Egypt and Tunisia 85 Table 4.3: Self-Reported Rates of (Present and Past) Organizational Membership in Tunisia and Egypt Compared (2013) 110 iii Acknowledgments I would like to convey my deepest gratitude to my distinguished advisor, Professor Ali Banuazizi, for his support and guidance that helped me find my path throughout this research. I am grateful to him for making my graduate-level experience a distinguished one. I would like to express my appreciation to all
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