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Business Worldwide the Business Situation of the Global Chemical Industry in the 2Nd Quarter 2021

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Business Worldwide the Business Situation of the Global Chemical Industry in the 2Nd Quarter 2021 Business Worldwide The business situation of the global chemical industry in the 2nd quarter 2021 September 2021 Good demand situation on A Global economy: Pre-crisis chemical markets level exceeded A Industrial production: Sup- Overall economy ply chains slow down The global economy continued its recovery in the second quarter of the year. development After the lockdown in the winter months, the progress of vaccination in industri- al nations brought a widespread easing. More and more industrial nations came A Demand situation for chem- close to or reached their pre-crisis levels. In the emerging economies, the ical products remains good pandemic repeatedly caused temporary and regional lockdowns. However, this - production problems slow generally dampened the recovery process only briefly. The global gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4 percent over the previous quarter, exceed- down ing not only the previous year’s level but also the pre-crisis level for the first A Outlook: Continuation of time. the recovery Industry The recovery of industry was briefly interrupted in many countries by supply chain problems. Compared with the previous quarter, global production had to be curtailed despite continued good Chemical and Pharma production demand and full order books. However, the low level of By regions, seasonally adjusted the previous year was strongly exceeded everywhere. change against previous year and previous quarter in percent While the major emerging economies were thus above 2019 2020 2. quarter 2021 pre-crisis levels, most industrial nations came just close yoy qoq to them. World + 2.9 + 1.1 + 11.8 + 1.8 Europe Chemistry EU + 3.8 + 1.4 + 11.0 + 0.7 Germany – 7.3 – 0.1 + 10.9 + 1.3 Developments in the chemical and pharmaceutical Russia + 7.1 + 9.9 + 8.1 – 1.0 industry were divided. The pharmaceutical industry Americas continued to grow without interruption due to continu- USA – 3.2 – 2.5 + 10.1 + 7.8 ing strong demand. By contrast, the chemical industry Brazil – 2.1 + 0.6 + 7.2 – 0.5 partly suffered setbacks. Demand continued to develop Asia Japan – 0.7 – 9.5 + 6.5 + 6.1 positively. But similar to industry as a whole, supply South Korea – 0.7 – 1.0 + 12.7 + 2.7 chain problems had negative impacts on the chemical India + 1.5 – 3.4 + 21.7 + 2.0 industry, too, and slowed development. China + 5.6 + 3.2 + 13.2 + 0.5 Sources: Chemdata International, VCI Outlook Further prospects are good, however, they continue to depend on the effectiveness of vaccination programmes, Recovery continues public health policies, and the incidence of infection. Production, seasonally adjusted, Index 2015 = 100 (left axis) Progress in vaccination campaigns and low case rates changes against previous year in percent (bars, right axis) should lead to widespread easing of restrictions to the 160 18 point of normalisation of social life. Growth dynamics of a pharmaceuticals 150 15 countries might continue to differ significantly depend- a chemicals ing on the infection situation. Differences are also likely 140 12 to remain high between the sectors of the economy. 130 9 120 6 Setbacks to recovery cannot be ruled out. Also in future, risks are posed by the development of infections, 110 3 particularly by mutations of the virus. Moreover, 100 0 shortages of inputs do have the potential to slow the 90 -3 pace of recovery in the overall economy. 80 -6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Chemdata International, VCI Business Worldwide | 02.2021 | Overall Economy and Outlook Global economy right on course Spain, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 2.7 and 2.8 per- The global economy continued its recovery course in the cent respectively. Growth was also above average in Portugal second quarter 2021. After the lockdown in the winter (+4.9), Greece (+3.4), the Netherlands (+3.1) and Poland (+2.5). months, the progress of vaccination in industrial nations In France and Sweden, by contrast, GDP increased by only brought a widespread easing. More and more industrial 1.1 and 0.9 percent, respectively. The pre-crisis level was not nations came close to or reached their pre-crisis levels. In the yet reached in the EU. emerging economies, the pandemic repeatedly caused A further strong recovery is expected in the course of 2021. temporary and regional lockdowns. However, this generally The Recovery Fund should have an additional stimulating dampened the recovery process only briefly. Most emerging effect. Although the infection situation continues to dampen economies returned to or exceeded their pre-crisis levels. the developments, this should no longer cause any new The global GDP grew by 1.4 percent over the previous quarter, lockdowns. The pre-crisis level could be reached again by the exceeding not only the previous year’s level but also the end of the present year. pre-crisis level (Q4 2019) for the first time. In Germany, the economy recovered after the slump in the Further prospects are good, however, they should continue first quarter and grew by 1.6 percent compared with the to depend on the effectiveness of vaccination programmes, previous three months. More and more easing led to a public health policies, and the incidence of infection. significant rise in private consumption. Public consumption, Progress in vaccination campaigns and low case rates should investment and foreign trade also contributed to growth. lead to widespread easing of restrictions to the point of However, compared with Q4 2019 (the quarter before the normalisation of social life. Growth dynamics of countries start of the corona crisis), economic output was still 3.3 per- might continue to differ significantly depending on the cent lower despite the recovery. But the expected develop- infection situation. Differences are also likely to remain high ment in the further course of 2021 should bring the base level between the sectors of the economy. Gastronomy and within reach at the end of the present year. tourism generally will continue to suffer due to the pandemic In the United Kingdom, the normalisation of social life for some time. brought a strong growth thrust, with consumption being the Setbacks to recovery cannot be ruled out. Also in future, risks growth driver. By contrast, investment fell and the contribu- are posed by the development of infections, particularly by tion from foreign trade was negative. Irrespective of the delta mutations of the virus, and the countermeasures. Moreover, variant, the upward process should last in the further course there have been increasing shortages of inputs recently due of 2021. to the sharp rise in global demand. So far, these have had The Russian economy grew at a faster pace in the second negative impacts especially on industry, but they also have quarter compared with early 2021. This means that the the potential to slow the pace of economic recovery overall. pre-crisis level of late 2019 was reached officially. Currently, indicators are pointing to a slowdown in the upswing in the Europe: strong recovery in services further course of the year. The easing measures implemented since the spring led to significant growth in Europe’s economy in the second America: Recovery in the North – setback in the South quarter of 2021. Growth was mainly in the services sectors, In the USA, the recovery continued in the second quarter and while industry suffered from disruptions in global supply the pre-crisis level was exceeded for the first time. Once chains. The development was positive in all European again, growth was driven by private consumption. Invest- countries. Strong rebound effects were recorded in Italy and ment in equipment also contributed to growth. By contrast, Gross domestic product Germany‘s economy: dampers at the beginning of the year By regions, change against previous year and Gross Domestic Product Germany, seasonally adjusted, previous quarter in percent Index 2015 = 100 change against previous year in percent 2019 2020 2. quarter 2021 112 10 yoy qoq 110 8 World + 2.2 – 3.7 + 12.1 + 1.4 108 6 Europe 106 4 EU + 1.7 – 6.1 + 13.2 + 1.9 104 2 Germany + 1.1 – 4.9 + 9.4 + 1.6 Russia + 2.0 – 3.0 + 10.3 + 2.0 102 0 Americas 100 -2 USA + 2.3 – 3.4 + 12.2 + 1.6 98 -4 Brazil + 1.4 – 4.4 + 12.4 – 0.1 96 -6 Asia 94 -8 Japan + 0.0 – 4.7 + 7.6 + 0.3 South Korea + 2.2 – 0.9 + 6.0 + 0.8 92 -10 India + 4.8 – 7.0 + 20.3 – 7.8 90 -12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 China + 5.9 + 2.4 + 7.7 + 1.3 Sources: Feri, VCI Sources: Feri, VCI 2 Business Worldwide | 02.2021 | Overall Economy and Outlook investment in construction was negative. There was no with the previous quarter. Personal services and construction impetus from foreign trade. Growth will continue in the were particularly affected. However, the economy is expected further course of the year. Possible employment gains and to recover from the sharp downturn in the further course of higher wages as well as infrastructure programmes could the year – while shortcomings in infrastructure, education further boost the economy. However, the sentiment was and public administration are slowing growth in the medium clouded most recently by rising infection and hospitalisation term. rates. In Japan, the persistent pandemic and low vaccination rates Brazil’s economy contracted slightly in the second quarter. slowed the pace of recovery in the second quarter. The Another corona wave made regional lockdowns necessary pre-crisis level is still a long way off. Increasing vaccination and slowed the economy which, however, no longer fell progress and fiscal policy stimulus should support the below the pre-crisis level.
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