Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

• 1,642 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week. • Cases will continue to accelerate rapidly unless we urgently adhere to national and local guidance. • The majority of transmission continues to be within and between households.

Data up to 15 November 2020

1 National Restrictions

Northamptonshire residents must follow new National guidance.

Key guidance includes: • Only leave home for food, medical reasons, exercise, education or work (if you cannot work from home) • You MUST work from home if you can • Avoid travel unless essential • Schools and essential shops to remain open • Remember: Wash hands, cover face, make space

For a full list of what you can and cannot do, please visit: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from- 5-november For local guidance and FAQs, visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-advice-and-faqs.aspx

2 Your Actions Make a Difference!

1. If you can’t minimise your contact with the over 60s, due to caring or childcare responsibilities, then you must minimise your contact elsewhere. We urgently need to reduce coronavirus transmission to older age groups who have greater risk of severe illness and hospital admission. Bed capacity at our hospitals is already continuing to rise. At the moment non urgent and elective surgeries are continuing but if this trend continues they will have to stop.

2. Book your flu jabs now. We are urging all pregnant women and those with long term conditions to have the flu jab as soon as possible. We want to ensure all eligible residents are protected against the flu before we can implement a robust and effective COVID-19 vaccination programme once available.

3. Don’t get complacent and take COVID-19 home with you. If you must go out then practice COVID-19 safe behaviour or you could take the virus back to your loved ones at home. For those who need to leave home for work, essential shopping or school runs; if you are on buses, trains, or car-sharing then wear your face mask, use hand sanitiser or wash your hands before and after your journey and keep a safe distance at all times. Practice these behaviours consistently everywhere to reduce the risk of you and your loved ones catching COVID-19.

3 Public Health Measures • Public Health Northamptonshire, Environmental Health departments within District and Borough Councils, Northamptonshire County Council and Northants Police have, and will, use enforcement powers where there is non-compliance in relation to COVID-19 Regulations. • The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020 came into force on the 5 November 2020 and amongst a number of new provisions impose restrictions on a variety of businesses within our local communities. • There are a number of well established forums within Northamptonshire to discuss our approach and consider the implications of these new Regulations. • A number of protocols are being developed and shared across all relevant enforcing authorities so that we can provide a consistent approach across this County. • We will continue to engage, explain and encourage within our community to ensure the new provisions are implemented to support public health with the aim of reducing the transmission rate of COVID-19. • Notwithstanding this approach, there are a number of existing provisions including wearing face coverings in certain settings; gatherings and a failure to self-isolate when required to do so, which will result in the use of proportionate enforcement powers aimed at protecting public health.

4 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 12,236 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 1,642 were identified in the last week, 9 to 15 November 2020.

This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 24th August 2020.

There has been an overall increasing trend over the last two months with cases rising significantly since the end of September. There were more than twice as many cases in the last week compared to the first week of October. Average daily case figures are higher than the weekly totals seen during September. After a sharp rise last week, cases have remained similar to the previous week.

The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

5 Recent Cases by Age and Gender

This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band. Overall, more women than men tested positive for COVID- 19 in the last 28 days. The age groups with the most positive tests in males were 50 to 59 year olds, and in females they were 40 to 49 year olds. In recent weeks the 10 to 19 age group has consistently had the highest numbers of cases by a notable margin but case numbers are now highest amongst working age adults. Cases are continuing to increase in the over 60s. This is of particular concern as these age groups tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease and observed hospital admission.

6 Total Cases by District and Borough

Cases in week This table shows the total number of people who Total cases to Change from Area 9 Nov to 15 have tested positive for COVID-19 up to 15 15 Nov 2020 previous week Nov 2020 November 2020 in each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs. Northamptonshire 12,236 1,642  With the exception of Northampton and East  Corby 1040 126 Northamptonshire, all districts and boroughs have Daventry 1100 192  seen an similarly high number in cases compared to the previous week. Northamptonshire’s total East Northamptonshire 1407 190  cases in the last week are nearly 9 times higher Kettering 1613 214  than the weekly average seen between 31 August Northampton 4,713 569  and 27 September.

South Northamptonshire 1180 220  Please note that extreme caution must be applied Wellingborough 1180 130  when viewing week on week changes. To see the overall changes in areas in context please see slides 8 and 9.

7 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases This graph includes all testing data. It shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days is below the England average, however the gap between Northamptonshire average and England average is narrowing. Northampton’s rate has exceeded the England rate for the last 7 days.

With the exception of Northampton and a brief spell for East Northamptonshire all districts and boroughs have weekly total rates below the England average but have seen rapid increases since the end of September.

Northampton currently has the highest weekly rate of cases in the county, followed by Daventry.

* These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

8 Rates of Cases by District and Borough The data in this table shows us what the total and most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers Rate per Compared to Cumulative rate Compared to for our districts and boroughs would look like if each 100,000 7 Nov England rate 7 Area per 100,000 to county rate 7 Nov to 13 Nov Nov to 13 Nov area had the exact same population size (100,000). 13 Nov 2020 to 13 Nov 2020 2020 2020 This helps us to compare geographic areas with Northamptonshire 1,586 233.0 - Sig lower different sized populations more accurately.

Corby 1,408 200.8 Similar Sig lower With the exception of Daventry and Northampton, Daventry 1,244 246.7 Similar Similar district and borough infection rates per 100,000 East Northamptonshire 1,457 214.8 Similar Sig lower population for the most recent week are significantly lower when compared to the national Kettering 1,551 224.0 Similar Sig lower average. However the rates for all districts and Northampton 2,061 280.9 Sig higher Similar boroughs are above 100 cases per 100,000 population as a weekly average. South Northamptonshire 1,194 230.7 Similar Sig lower Wellingborough 1,443 148.0 Sig lower Sig lower Overall, Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the most recent week is significantly lower than the Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk England average, but this is due to a significant increase in the England rate and therefore must be *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’ is a statistical term which simply means that viewed in this context. the research is valid.

9 Education Status

These tables show a summary of school Outbreaks 17/11/2020 status and attendance in Northamptonshire and numbers of Active outbreaks in schools/colleges 31 reported cases in schools and at the Total cases associated with active outbreaks in University of Northampton. 260 schools/colleges (outbreak start to date) University of Northampton reported cases in the last The most recent attendance rates are 30 week 9-15 Nov lower than the baseline figures for Autumn term 2019.

Attendance 17/11/20 A further breakdown of outbreaks and exposures in education settings by % schools open – average of the previous week 99% district can be found on slide 14.

% pupils attending – average of the previous week 86%

Baseline Autumn term attendance data figure for 94% same period in 2019

10 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with the highest case numbers in the last 28 days help us to prioritise and focus our support locally.

Please note that the categories of the map have changed since last week to show greater definition.

11 Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000 population

These graphics show what positive COVID- 19 case numbers over the last 28 days would look like if each local community had the exact same size population (100,000).

The map illustrates the 28-day infection rate per 100,000 population across the whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

12 Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly per 100,000 population If each community had the exact 1 Braunston & Crick (Dav) same size population (100,000) in 2 Towcester West & Blakesley (SN) Northamptonshire, this graphic New Duston West (Nton) shows how COVID-19 case numbers 3 in the last 14 days would have 4 Moulton (Nton)

changed in each community 5 Abington Vale (Nton) compared to the previous 14 days. 6 Upton & West Hunsbury (Nton)

The 15 areas with the greatest 7 Middleton Cheney & Chipping Warden (SN) increases in case rates are listed 8 Ringstead, Woodford & Stanwick (EN) next to the map. 9 Lodge Farm (Nton)

Areas with the greatest increases in 10 Desborough (Kett) rates of infection show us where 11 Rixon (Wboro) we need to prioritise and focus our support locally. 12 Kettering Brambleside (Kett) 13 Kingsthorpe (Nton) Please note that the categories of the Corby Kingswood (Cor) map have changed since last week to 14 show greater definition. 15 Harpole, Kislingbury & Bugbrooke (SN)

13 Summary of Outbreaks and Exposures 17/11/2020

• Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days. • Although outbreaks have increased this week and are related to a particular setting - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to community household transmission. • University cases are included in the Education category. 14 Winter Flu - Protecting the Immune System Winter Flu immunisation uptake up to to end of week 45 (8 Nov 2020) This data represents 80% of GP practices uploading their data for week 45. Please note that individuals can appear in more than one cohort, e.g. pregnant and in risk category.

Number of further Total Number eligible Number of immunisations Target Group immunisations required to Target % people given meet target

Over 65 109,986 76,716 5,774 75% Under 65 at risk 72,388 26,104 28,187 75% Pregnant Women 4,691 1,159 2,359 75% 2 and 3 year olds 17,829 6,982 6,390 75% The table below shows that the current progress for flu uptake has improved in all eligible categories compared to the same period in 2019/20 with the exception of pregnant women which shows a small difference.

Total Combined At Risk STP Year 65 and over Population 6months to All Pregnant Women All Aged 2- 3 under 65 years Northamptonshire STP 2020/21 69.8% 36.1% 24.7% 39.2% Northamptonshire STP 2019/20 59.9% 25.9% 25.4% 6.1% Northamptonshire STP Change 9.9% 10.1% -0.7% 33.0%

15 We Are All In This Together

• To find out more information about local testing sites visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-testing-in-northamptonshire.aspx. • Tests can be booked online at nhs.uk/coronavirus or by calling 119. Home testing kits can also be ordered subject to availability. • It is vital that when you leave the house to be tested you must go straight to the testing centre and return home immediately to self- isolate until you get your results. • Advice on how to access a COVID-19 test can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting- tested.

16 Partners Working on the COVID-19 Response PHE – Public Health England An executive agency of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) which is the expert national public health agency which fulfils the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care’s statutory duty to protect health and address inequalities, and executes his power to promote the health and wellbeing of the nation. We work with the Midlands PHE Office.

Local Public Health Teams Part of Local Authorities (Upper tier and unitary) since 2013, led by Directors of Public Health with a number of specific statutory responsibilities, including health protection and local control of infectious diseases including immunisation and related functions.

Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) The JBC aims to provide evidence-based, independent analysis, assessment and advice to inform local and national decision-making in response to COVID-19 outbreaks. This includes: • helping to inform action on testing, contact tracing and local outbreak management in England • informing an assessment of the risks to UK public health from inbound international travel • advising on the COVID-19 alert level • acting as the main point of liaison between Local Authorities and the Chief Medical Officer and Secretary of State.

Environmental Health Officers Work within District and Borough Local Authorities and are responsible for monitoring and enforcing health and hygiene legislation. They are working closely with Public Health Northamptonshire on COVID-19 workplace outbreaks, with the COVID-19 Schools Cell and Northamptonshire County Council’s Test and Trace service.

17 Government Help, Guidance and Fines

• Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

• Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation, will be fined.