REGENERATION AND INEQUALITY IN AMERICA’S LEGACY CITIES
Alan Mallach, Senior Fellow Center for Community Progress Washington, DC [email protected]
Setting the stage
• A dramatic reversal of long-term urban decline began in coastal cities in the 1990s • Since 2000, that reversal has spread inland to many post-industrial cities. • It is closely related to national and global trends: • Globalization and the growth of the knowledge economy • Increased income and wealth inequality in American society. • The changing profile of urban jobs • Demographic and cultural trends leading to changing urban migration patterns • Growing economic inequality and segregation in American society Urban regeneration is driven by the “march of the millennials”
6 % 25-34 BA+ 5 % Change 25-34 BA+ 4 2000-2012
3
2
1 National Average
0 All city figures are shown relative to national averages
Where are the millennials going?
18.0% Magnets 16.0% 14.0% Contenders
12.0% Catch-up 10.0% 8.0%
6.0% Lagging 4.0%
2.0%
0.0% Regeneration is spatially confined
Population change in St. Louis 2000-2010
NORTH
CENTRAL
SOUTH
Map by PolicyMap Spatial disparities in income are great
Income distribution In Baltimore 2012
Map by PolicyMap Many downtowns are thriving
Inner Harbor Baltimore
Washington Avenue St Louis Some neighborhoods have been transformed
Central West End St. Louis MO
Over-the-Rhine Cincinnati …but far more remain in distress
East Cleveland
Baltimore
St Louis Most urban jobs are held by suburban commuters
Work in Camden But live outside CAMDEN NEW JERSEY Camden (86%)
Work in Camden and live in Camden (14%)
The problem is not the number of jobs, but who holds the jobs
300000 Jobs in city
250000 Resident workforce
200000 Residents working in city 150000
100000
50000 Jobs/worker ratios Numberjobs/workersof 0 Populations are increasingly sorting spatially by income
60
10 7 50 1999 2012
40 23 4
30
20
10 Numbercensusof tracts
0 0-50% 50-80% 80-120% 120-150% 150%+ Change in number of census tracts by income range in New Orleans
Far more areas are losing than gaining ground
Areas of severe Likely pocket market decline of gentrification
House price change In Milwaukee 2007 to 2012 Economic disparities by race are growing at the household level
60 % Change in median household income 2000-2010 50
40
30
20 All 10 White 0 African-American
-10
-20 …and at the neighborhood level
The great majority of predominately Black Predominately tracts in Milwaukee Black census tracts lost >50% of market value between 2006 and 2013
Predominately white census tracts BLACK POPULATION
PERCENTAGE 2013 MEDIAN SALES PRICE AS PERCENTAGE OF 2006 MEDIAN …exacerbated by middle-class Black flight
35
30
25 All white 20 families
15 White families >$50K
10 All black families 5 Black families %population loss 2000-2012 0 >$50K Cincinnati Pittsburgh St. Louis Key findings
• Inequality in regenerating post-industrial cities is spatial, economic and racial • Economic functions of the city are increasingly separating from the city’s population and workforce • More neighborhoods are declining than reviving: decline is affecting far more people than gentrification, particularly African-Americans. • Powerful economic, demographic and migration trends are sharply widening the gap between white and Black urban populations. Challenges of local action
• Inequality is a people AND a place issue: • Inequality of opportunity and resources for individuals and families • Inequality of neighborhood conditions within cities • Inequality of cities within their regional framework • Feedback loops dictate that strategies to address one dimension of inequality may conflict with or undermine others. • Capacity of governance systems may not be adequate to address inequality issues. How can we create local frameworks to link multiple elements into an integrated attack on inequality and lack of opportunity?
Economic Improved delivery of Wage & benefit diversification public services enhancementJob targeting Blight elimination strategies strategies Neighborhood Workforce marketing development “Promise” Drawing new strategies populations Educational ? Anti-displacement Reform Crime prevention strategies Retaining Regional revenue-sharing middle-class and service delivery models households