REGENERATION AND INEQUALITY IN AMERICA’S LEGACY CITIES Alan Mallach, Senior Fellow Center for Community Progress Washington, DC [email protected] Setting the stage • A dramatic reversal of long-term urban decline began in coastal cities in the 1990s • Since 2000, that reversal has spread inland to many post-industrial cities. • It is closely related to national and global trends: • Globalization and the growth of the knowledge economy • Increased income and wealth inequality in American society. • The changing profile of urban jobs • Demographic and cultural trends leading to changing urban migration patterns • Growing economic inequality and segregation in American society Urban regeneration is driven by the “march of the millennials” 6 % 25-34 BA+ 5 % Change 25-34 BA+ 4 2000-2012 3 2 1 National Average 0 All city figures are shown relative to national averages Where are the millennials going? 18.0% Magnets 16.0% 14.0% Contenders 12.0% Catch-up 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Lagging 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Regeneration is spatially confined Population change in St. Louis 2000-2010 NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH Map by PolicyMap Spatial disparities in income are great Income distribution In Baltimore 2012 Map by PolicyMap Many downtowns are thriving Inner Harbor Baltimore Washington Avenue St Louis Some neighborhoods have been transformed Central West End St. Louis MO Over-the-Rhine Cincinnati …but far more remain in distress East Cleveland Baltimore St Louis Most urban jobs are held by suburban commuters Work in Camden But live outside CAMDEN NEW JERSEY Camden (86%) Work in Camden and live in Camden (14%) The problem is not the number of jobs, but who holds the jobs 300000 Jobs in city 250000 Resident workforce 200000 Residents working in city 150000 100000 50000 Jobs/worker ratios Numberof jobs/workers 0 Populations are increasingly sorting spatially by income 60 10 7 50 1999 2012 40 23 4 30 20 10 Numberof census tracts 0 0-50% 50-80% 80-120% 120-150% 150%+ Change in number of census tracts by income range in New Orleans Far more areas are losing than gaining ground Areas of severe Likely pocket market decline of gentrification House price change In Milwaukee 2007 to 2012 Economic disparities by race are growing at the household level 60 % Change in median household income 2000-2010 50 40 30 20 All 10 White 0 African-American -10 -20 …and at the neighborhood level The great majority of predominately Black Predominately tracts in Milwaukee Black census tracts lost >50% of market value between 2006 and 2013 Predominately white census tracts BLACK POPULATION PERCENTAGE 2013 MEDIAN SALES PRICE AS PERCENTAGE OF 2006 MEDIAN …exacerbated by middle-class Black flight 35 30 25 All white 20 families 15 White families >$50K 10 All black families 5 Black families % populationloss 2000-2012 0 >$50K Cincinnati Pittsburgh St. Louis Key findings • Inequality in regenerating post-industrial cities is spatial, economic and racial • Economic functions of the city are increasingly separating from the city’s population and workforce • More neighborhoods are declining than reviving: decline is affecting far more people than gentrification, particularly African-Americans. • Powerful economic, demographic and migration trends are sharply widening the gap between white and Black urban populations. Challenges of local action • Inequality is a people AND a place issue: • Inequality of opportunity and resources for individuals and families • Inequality of neighborhood conditions within cities • Inequality of cities within their regional framework • Feedback loops dictate that strategies to address one dimension of inequality may conflict with or undermine others. • Capacity of governance systems may not be adequate to address inequality issues. How can we create local frameworks to link multiple elements into an integrated attack on inequality and lack of opportunity? Economic Improved delivery of Wage & benefit diversification public services enhancementJob targeting Blight elimination strategies strategies Neighborhood Workforce marketing development “Promise” Drawing new strategies populations Educational ? Anti-displacement Reform Crime prevention strategies Retaining Regional revenue-sharing middle-class and service delivery models households .