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Report No: ACS12182 . East Asia and Pacific EAP Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessment and Retrofitting Program Safe and Resilient Infrastructure in the Philippines Applications of International Experience . August 2014 . GSURR EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC . Document of the World Bank . Standard Disclaimer: . This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: . 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Safe and Resilient Infrastructure in the Philippines Applications of International Experience August 2014 ©2014 The World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA August 2014 Disclaimer: This report is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgments on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Design: [email protected] Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... ii Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................... v Background ....................................................................................................................................... ix Principles of Earthquake Risk Management ................................................................................. 1 Technical Bases of an Earthquake Risk Management Program ................................................ 2 Earthquake and Multi-Hazard Mapping ............................................................................. 2 Building Codes and Enforcement ....................................................................................... 3 Prioritization of Public Buildings and Infrastructure ....................................................... 7 Developing an Earthquake Risk Management Program ........................................................... 9 Phase 1: Risk Audit ............................................................................................................. 9 Phase 2: Detailed Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis ......................................... 10 Phase 3: Implementation ................................................................................................... 12 Integrated Earthquake Risk Management in the Philippines ..................................................... 13 Multihazard Prioritization for Public Buildings ........................................................................ 15 Prioritization and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Strengthening ................................... 20 Guidelines for Earthquake Strengthening of Public Schools and Hospitals in Metro Manila 29 International Experience in Earthquake Risk Management ........................................................ 33 California: Multidimensional Earthquake risk management .................................................... 33 Romania: Hazard Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project ............................... 36 Turkey: Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project ................... 38 Indonesia: pilot implementation in the education sector ........................................................ 40 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 43 References ........................................................................................................................................ 45 Acknowledgements his report was prepared by the World Bank Disaster Risk Management Team East Asia and the Pacific, under the guidance of Abhas Jha and Jolanta Kryspin-Watson. It is based on contributions Tof technical experts convened by the World Bank in collaboration with the Japan International Cooperation Agency, including Rafael Alaluf, Fauzan Fauzan, Tatsuo Narafu, Benito Pacheco, Michael Reyes, and Peter Yanev. Hannah Joy Yi consolidated expert inputs, Artessa Saldivar-Sali provided in- depth technical editing, and Zuzana Stanton-Geddes provided editorial comments. The report presents the results of a detailed vulnerability assessment and summarizes the prioritization methodology developed to guide investment decisions on the strengthening of critical assets in Metropolitan Manila. With support from the World Bank, the engagement on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure has carried out a preliminary structural assessment of over seven hundred public school campuses and twenty hospitals retained by the Department of Health in Metro Manila. The report also highlights the lessons learned from seismic retrofitting programs implemented throughout the world, as showcased during the Forum on Safe and Resilient Infrastructure that took place in Manila, Philippines, in October 2013. The team extends special acknowledgement to the Philippines Department of Public Works and Highways and is grateful for funding support from the Australian Government and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Acronyms CP Collapse Prevention DepEd Department of Education DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways DRRM Disaster Risk Reduction and Management FDD Facilities Development Division (California) FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency (United States) GDP Gross domestic product GoP Government of the Philippines HRMEP Hazard Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project IO Immediate Occupancy IPCU Istanbul Project Coordination Unit ISMEP Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LS Life Safety M Magnitude MMEIRS Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study MMDA Metro Manila Development Authority NSCP National Structural Code of the Philippines OSHPD Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (California) PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology TCIP Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool UBC Uniform Building Code WVF West Valley Fault Struggle in strong wind and driving rain produced by monsoon Pedring (Nesat) that killed about 70 people and displaced 635,405. Photo by ArtPhaneuf/Thinkstock.com / v Executive Summary he Philippines is among the top disaster hotspots of the world. It is highly exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other geological Thazards, as well as to typhoons and monsoon rains, all of which limit the country’s sustainable development. Over the past five years, the Philippines has experienced severe weather events resulting in considerable damage and losses. Typhoon Yolanda, which struck in November 2013, is considered among the strongest ever to make landfall, with close to 8,000 dead and missing. An initial estimate (GoP 2013) puts the total damage and loss from Yolanda at PhP571.1 billion (equivalent to US$12.8 billion).1 Catastrophe risk modeling for the Philippines (AIR/ADPC 2013) shows the country is expected to incur, on a long-term average basis, PhP206 billion (US$4.6 billion)2 per year in damage to public and private assets from earthquake ground shaking, wind and precipitation induced by tropical cyclones, and precipitation induced by nontropical cyclones (monsoons). Over the past decade, the government of the Philippines (GoP) has taken steps to improve the overall resilience of the country to the impacts of natural disasters. For example, a multiyear risk assessment—