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Regional Energy Security: Re-Evaluating Concepts and Policies to Promote Energy Integration in Mercosur

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Regional Energy Security: Re-Evaluating Concepts and Policies to Promote Energy Integration in Mercosur REGIONAL ENERGY SECURITY: RE-EVALUATING CONCEPTS AND POLICIES TO PROMOTE ENERGY INTEGRATION IN MERCOSUR Thauan dos Santos Tese de Doutorado apresentada ao Programa de Pós- graduação em Planejamento Energético, COPPE, da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, como parte dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do título de Doutor em Planejamento Energético. Orientadores: Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Rio de Janeiro Fevereiro de 2018 i ii Santos, Thauan dos Regional Energy Security: Re-evaluating concepts and policies to promote energy integration in Mercosur/Thauan dos Santos. – Rio de Janeiro: UFRJ/COPPE, 2018. XXIV, 286 p.: il.; 29,7 cm. Orientador: Amaro Olimpío Pereira Júnior Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Tese (doutorado) – UFRJ/ COPPE/ Programa de Planejamento Energético, 2018. Referências Bibliográficas: p. 236-286. 1. Energy security. 2. Energy integration. 3. Energy planning. I. Pereira Júnior, Amaro Olímpio et al. II. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE, Programa de Planejamento Energético. III. Título. iii ‘Nuestro norte es el sur’ Joaquín Torres García iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis is the result of the support of a number of people and institutions. I hope to live up to each one of them right now. First of all, I thank my family for their unconditional support for my choices and decisions. To my parents, Simone and Wilson, for all the affection and opportunities. To my brothers, Luan Santos and João Pedro, for always being with me and being my ‘partners in crime’. In particular to Luan, who accompanies me since our mother’s belly and has been part of the most delicate moments of my life. To Júnior Diniz, my life companion, for all support, understanding and companionship. To my grandmother, uncles and other relatives for always being there for me. Thank you too, Toninha and Carlin, for all prayers. Thank you all very much for everything, especially for understanding my absence (sometimes completely) in the last months. Love you! Muito obrigado! I thank my friends, especially those who have been with me in recent years. I especially emphasize Cassia Oliveira, who has always been present even from afar (danke schön!). Thank you, Larissa Silva and Esperanza González, for the company in the first years of our doctorate and for the friendship that went beyond COPPE/UFRJ classrooms. Thank you, Bárbara Ramalho, Cadu Ramalho, Kalif Fatal, Bia Pereira, Ana Paula Rodriguez, Pablo Fontes and Mariana Padilha for the relaxing moments and support. Thank you very much, Gustavo Moura, for all your support and patience when assisting me with the energy modeling. To my South American friends and colleagues for helping me especially with detailed information on their countries. ¡Muchas gracias!, Daniela Varela (Argentina), Fabiola Rodrigues (Argentina), Diego Campoy (Argentina), Alberto Tomelin (Argentina), Ignacio Lara (Argentina), Paola Dorado (Bolivia), Yanna Clara (Brazil), Igor Fuser (Brazil), Felipe Botelho Tavares (Brazil), Fernando Simões Cardozo (Brazil), Renato Queiroz (Brazil), Edmar Almeida (Brazil), Marcel Biato (Brazil), João Genésio (Brazil), Rafael Soria (Ecuador), Victorio Oxilia (Paraguay), Ricardo Canese (Paraguay), Sara Garay (Paraguay), Daniel F. Cabrera (Peru), Eveline Vásquez (Peru), Mauro Chavez Rodriguez (Peru), Marisa León (Uruguay), Diego Campoy (Uruguay), William Clavijo v Vitto (Venezuela), Ignacio Fernandez (Venezuela), Johana Salazar (Venezuela), Igor Hernandez (Venezuela) and Ana Guerra (Venezuela). Thanks to you too, Christine Folch (USA). From my advisers, Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior and Emilio Lèbre La Rovere, I appreciate all support and opportunities during my four years at COPPE. I am especially grateful for the understanding and patience during the last months of the doctorate, a time of great pressure and short deadlines for the three of us. I will forever be grateful to you for this. To the members of the doctoral defense committee, Andrea R. Hoffmann, André F. P. Lucena, Helder Queiroz Pinto Júnior and Nivalde J. de Castro, thanks for accepting my invitation and for contributing with commentaries that enriched this thesis. Thank you also, Luiz F. Legey and Ricardo Cunha da Costa, for the precious reflections on the qualification of my PhD project. To the Institute of International Relations of the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (IRI/PUC-Rio) and the Department of Defense and International Strategic Management of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (DGEI/UFRJ), particularly to all my students and co-workers, for having given me much joy, personal growth, and job satisfaction over the last four years. Writing a thesis is filled up with lonely moments and being able to share this time with you, in your company, either in the classroom and/or on university premises was fundamental to my mental health and to give me strength to move on. I appreciate all feedbacks and suggestions received to all my works presented and published on different occasions since I immersed myself in the theme of energy integration in 2012. I also thank the opportunity to learn about energy modeling during the course of Energy Policy for Sustainable Development and Use of the LEAP Model, from the Fundación Bariloche (Bariloche - Argentina, June 2013) and the project of Economic and Social Implications: Effect Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios Greenhouse 2030 - IES Brazil (Rio de Janeiro - Brazil, 2015-2016). To the United Nations (UN), in particular the UN Non-Governmental Liaison Service (UN-NGLS) and the United Nations Academic Impact (UNAI), for the opportunity to vi participate in events and to get in touch Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Objectives (SDG) in 2015 and 2016. To the Federal University of Ouro Preto (UFOP), Minas Gerais (Brazil), and the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm (Sweden), for their support in enabling remote access to advanced computers for my energy modeling. Again, thank you very much for making this work, Gustavo. To the PPE administrative staff, particularly to Sandrinha and Paulo, for all the support, understanding and patience in these years I was at COPPE. You made everything much simpler and easier on PPE. A big thanks to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for the financial support in these four years. My gratitude goes to all of you who prioritize teaching, research and extension, since I am aware that it is the (real) source of economic growth, but also of social, political and cultural empowerment and emancipation. To those who believe, study and fight for regional integration, respecting our differences and particularities. To those who understand that we should have a project of our own. To those who, amidst so many adversities, disbeliefs and disappointments, keep going and fighting to make it happen. vii Resumo da Tese apresentada à COPPE/UFRJ como parte dos requisitos necessários para a obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciências (D.Sc.) SEGURANÇA ENERGÉTICA REGIONAL: REAVALIANDO CONCEITOS E POLÍTICAS PARA PROMOVER A INTEGRAÇÃO ENERGÉTICA NO MERCOSUL Thauan dos Santos Fevereiro/2018 Orientadores: Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Programa: Planejamento Energético Esta tese realiza uma revisão de conceitos e políticas relacionadas à segurança energética e à integração regional. Dessa forma, propõe-se que o planejamento energético nos países em desenvolvimento seja regional, incorporando as dimensões social e ambiental da energia. Com foco nos países do Mercosul, considerando inclusive Venezuela (2012) e Bolívia (2015), faz-se uma análise comparada geral em termos quantitativos e qualitativos dos mercados e da infraestrutura física dos países do bloco (e da América do Sul, como um todo). Em seguida, analisa-se o papel que as instituições regionais, como o Mercosul e a UNASUL, desempenha na área de energia, mostrando que sua contribuição para a integração energética da região é muito pequena. A seguir, é proposto um índice híbrido (SEES index) para avaliar a evolução das políticas energéticas do Mercosul no período 1990-2010. Posteriormente, usa-se o modelo OSeMOSYS- SAMBA para simular quatro cenários de integração regional do setor elétrico, escolhido como exemplo dada a sua relevância. Por fim, conclui-se que a integração energética do Mercosul deve ser promovida, uma vez que reduz a necessidade de ampliação da capacidade de geração de energia elétrica e os impactos socioambientais dos projetos na área de energia. viii Abstract of Thesis presented to COPPE/UFRJ as a partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Science (D.Sc.) REGIONAL ENERGY SECURITY: RE-EVALUATING CONCEPTS AND POLICIES TO PROMOTE ENERGY INTEGRATION IN MERCOSUR Thauan dos Santos February/2018 Advisors: Amaro Olímpio Pereira Júnior Emilio Lèbre La Rovere Department: Energy Planning This thesis presents an overview of concepts and policies related to energy security and regional integration. Follows a proposal that energy planning in developing countries becomes regional, incorporating both social and environmental dimensions of energy. Focusing on Mercosur countries, including Venezuela (2012) and Bolivia (2015), a general comparative analysis is carried out, not only in quantitative and qualitative terms of the markets, but also of the physical infrastructure of the member countries (and of South America, as a whole). Then, comes an analysis of the role that regional institutions, such as Mercosur and UNASUR, have played in energy integration, showing that their
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