Meta-Modelling to Quantify Yields of White Spruce and Hybrid Spruce Provenances in the Canadian † Boreal Forest

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Meta-Modelling to Quantify Yields of White Spruce and Hybrid Spruce Provenances in the Canadian † Boreal Forest Article Meta-Modelling to Quantify Yields of White Spruce and Hybrid Spruce Provenances in the Canadian y Boreal Forest Suborna Ahmed 1,*, Valerie LeMay 1, Alvin Yanchuk 2, Andrew Robinson 3, Peter Marshall 1 and Gary Bull 1 1 Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Rm 2045, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; [email protected] (V.L.); [email protected] (P.M.); [email protected] (G.B.) 2 British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources Operations, PO Box 9518, STN Prov Govt, Victoria, BC V8W9C2, Canada; [email protected] 3 CEBRA, School of BioSciences, School of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne VIC 3010, Australia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-604-827-2059 This manuscript is part of a Ph.D. thesis by the first author, available online at open.library.ubc.ca. y Received: 26 April 2020; Accepted: 26 May 2020; Published: 28 May 2020 Abstract: Tree improvement programs can improve forest management by increasing timber yields in some areas, thereby facilitating conservation of other forest lands. In this study, we used a meta-analytic approach to quantify yields of alternative white (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and hybrid spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann x Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) stocks across planting sites in the boreal and hemiboreal forests of Canada. We extracted meta-data from published tree improvement program results for five Canadian provinces covering 38 planting sites and 330 white and hybrid spruce provenances. Using these meta-data and a random-coefficients nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach, we modelled average height over time trajectories for varying planting site characteristics, as well as climate transfer distances between planting sites and provenances. Climatic transfer distances had strong effects on the height trajectory parameters. In particular, the asymptote parameter had a nonlinear increasing trend with planting site versus provenance mean annual temperature differences. We incorporated the height trajectory meta-analysis model into an existing growth and yield model to predict volume yields. Overall, this research provides a mechanism to quantify yields of alternative provenances at a particular planting site, as a component of decision support models for evaluating evaluate forest management investment into improved planting stocks alternatives under current and possible future climates. Keywords: tree improvement; growth and yield; climatic transfer distances; meta-model; random- coefficients modelling 1. Introduction Forest industries in Canada and elsewhere are facing increased competition for forest land from urban expansion and other resource sectors including agriculture, oil, and gas, resulting in a diminishing fiber supply [1,2]. At the same time, climate changes are expected to impact forests via changes in forest growth rates and in natural disturbances caused by fire, diseases, and insects [3]. Tree improvement programs can provide improved seedling stocks with faster growth rates and/or better disease and insect resistances [4–8]. Using improved stocks can ameliorate timber supply shortages and facilitate a more competitive forest sector, while continuing to provide a broad range of Forests 2020, 11, 609; doi:10.3390/f11060609 www.mdpi.com/journal/forests Forests 2020, 11, 609 2 of 20 Forests 2020, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 20 ofecosystem ecosystem services services by supportingby supportin sustainableg sustainable forest forest management management over ov theer entire the entire forest forest land area land [9 area–11]. [9–11].However, However, a mechanism a mechanism for quantifying for quantifying the impacts the impacts of using of improved using improved stocks at stocks different at sitesdifferent is needed sites isto needed support to this support initiative. this initiative. TheThe boreal boreal forest covers an extensive expanse of the world’s forests, circling the northern hemispherehemisphere of of the the earth earth across across Scandinavian Scandinavian and and Nordic Nordic countries, countries, Russia, Russia, Canada, Canada, and and USA USA [12]. [12]. The Canadian Canadian boreal boreal forest forest represents represents 28% 28% of ofthis this biome, biome, covering covering 552 552million million hectares hectares [13]. The [13]. hemiborealThe hemiboreal forest forest is south is south of the of boreal the boreal forest forest and and is transitional is transitional with with temperate temperate forests, forests, except except in Albertain Alberta and and British British Columbia, Columbia, where where it is it generally is generally to the to the south south and and west west of the of the boreal boreal forest forest and and is transitionalis transitional to tomountainous mountainous forests forests (Figure (Figure 1).1). Co Coniferousniferous species species are are generally generally dominant in thethe borealboreal forest, includingincluding several severalPicea Piceaspecies species [14 [14].]. In In Canada, Canada, white white spruce spruce (Picea (Picea glauca glauca(Moench) (Moench) Voss) Voss)and hybrid and hybrid spruce spruce (Picea engelmannii(Picea engelmanniiParry ex Parry Engelmann ex Engelmann x Picea glauca x Picea(Moench) glauca (Moench) Voss) are importantVoss) are importantcommercial commercial species that species occupy that much occupy of this much spatial of this extent spatial [15] extent (Figure [15]1). (Figure 1). FigureFigure 1. 1. BorealBoreal and and hemiboreal hemiboreal forests forests of of Canada Canada and and USA USA [15]. [15]. CanadianCanadian tree tree improvement improvement programs programs began began in in the the 1950s 1950s with with the the overall overall goal goal of of providing improvedimproved stocks stocks with with superior superior traits traits [16]. [16]. Initially, Initially, seeds seeds were were collected collected from from phenotypically phenotypically superior superior individualsindividuals called called “plus “plus trees” trees” from from natural natural stands stands with with unknown unknown male male parents; parents; performances performances were were thenthen assessed assessed using using provenance provenance or or progeny progeny trials trials repr representingesenting multiple multiple seed seed sources sources to to establish establish seed seed planning zones. Subsequent Subsequent selections selections of of seeds seeds th throughrough both both wind wind (i.e., (i.e., natural-stand natural-stand mating) mating) or or controlled-pollinatedcontrolled-pollinated crosses crosses of of these these first-generation first-generation trees trees were were used used to to establish establish progeny progeny trials trials to to assessassess the the extent extent of of genetic genetic control control over over selection selection attributes, attributes, to to rank rank parents parents and and offspring, offspring, to to establish establish production populations populations (seed (seed orchards), orchards), and and to to qu quantifyantify the the expected genetic genetic gain gain from improved stocksstocks [10,16,17]. [10,16,17]. QuantifyingQuantifying gain gain from from improved improved tree tree stocks stocks is is a challenge for a number of reasons. First, First, trees trees areare long-lived long-lived and, and, as as a a result, result, the the time time to to maturity maturity (and (and subsequent subsequent generations) generations) is is long, long, unlike unlike most most agriculturalagricultural crops. crops. Even Even the the earliest earliest provenance provenance tria trialsls in in Canada Canada represent represent only only short short periods periods of of time time relativerelative to to biological biological rotation rotation ages ages reported reported for for natural natural stands. stands. Second, Second, growth growth rates rates can increase can increase with subsequentwith subsequent selections selections of best of bestperforming performing trees trees [18] [,18 and,], and, therefore, therefore, it ithas has been been considered considered to to be be a a “moving target”target” [ 19[19].]. Third, Third, there there often often is an is environmental an environmental effect andeffect there and may there also bemay a provenancealso be a provenance by environment effect because provenance performances vary with planting site characteristics [20,21]. Finally, in quantifying improvements, a baseline for comparison must be used. Forests 2020, 11, 609 3 of 20 by environment effect because provenance performances vary with planting site characteristics [20,21]. Finally, in quantifying improvements, a baseline for comparison must be used. This baseline could be wild stocks [22,23], seeds from the planting location (i.e., local provenance) [19,24,25], or the average of all provenances in the trials [26,27]. In spite of these difficulties, a number of researchers have quantified yields of improved stocks for some Canadian commercial tree species at a provincial or more localized spatial extent. Yields of white spruce provenances and their breeding performances were compared based on trials in Québec [28]. The 20-year growth increase of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce, tamarack (Larix laricina (Du Roil) K. Koch), and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) was reported using provenance trials in New Brunswick [17]. A number of ways to quantify genetic gain was discussed for commercial species of British Columbia
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