ROYAL LONDON HOUSE, FINSBURY SQUARE, LONDON Demand Study On Behalf of Obidos Properties Limited 16 March 2012 CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary ................................................................... 3 2. Background & Method of Approach .......................................... 5 3. Site Appraisal ........................................................................... 7 4. Proposed Development Scheme .............................................. 11 5. Local Hotel Market .................................................................. 26 6. Envisaged Demand ................................................................. 46 7. Conclusion .............................................................................. 56 APPENDICES A. Glossary of Industry Terminology............................................ 61 B. London Hotel Market .............................................................. 63 CBRE HOTELS | ROYAL LONDON HOUSE, FINSBURY SQUARE, LONDON Executive Summary The subject property is situated in the London Borough of Islington on Finsbury Square, to the north of Finsbury Circus and Liverpool Street Station. It benefits from excellent visibility from Finsbury Square and City Road and is situated in close proximity to the City of London and popular areas such as Shoreditch High Street and Hoxton Square. There are numerous bars, eateries and entertainment facilities within immediate walking distance of the site. The proposed development and the Finsbury Square area is well served by road and rail. The site is a short distance from both London Underground and mainline stations as well as major roads linking to north, south, east and west London. The immediate area has a high density of office developments being located close to the boundary of the London Borough of Islington and to the City of London. There are numerous office buildings plus new developments ongoing around Finsbury Square and City Road. Immediately to the east of Finsbury Square is Broadgate which comprises 16 office buildings with approximately 4.4 million ft 2 of office space with occupiers including Henderson Global Investors, UBS, HBOS, Close Brothers, RBS and Deutsche Bank. The City of London also has numerous historic and cultural attractions which will attract leisure demand including St Paul’s Cathedral, Tower of London, Bank of England Museum, Museum of London, Leadenhall Market, The Monument, Barbican Arts Centre, Guildhall Art Gallery & London’s Roman Amphitheatre and Spitalfields Market. The proposed hotel is also located close to Shoreditch and Hoxton to the north which 3 has numerous modern art galleries, bars, restaurants and nightclubs available to the leisure guest. Page From the floor plans and architects drawings provided by 5plus Architects, the hotel will be developed within the existing building plus extending the height to include three additional floors (new 8 th – 10 th floors). In total the proposed hotel will have a EXECUTIVESUMMARY basement, lower ground, ground and ten upper floors and extend to a Gross Internal Floor Area (GIA) of 14,356 m 2 and will provide 255 letting bedrooms, four flexible meeting rooms, two restaurants, bar and spa. We summarise the proposed accommodation as follows: Proposed Accommodation LEVEL FACILITIES Basement Plant, kitchen, stores, staff areas, disabled car parking spaces Lower Ground Business centre, spa, gym, pool, guest changing rooms, 6 bedrooms Ground Hotel lobby/ lounge, Hotel bar, Brasserie/Restaurant, 11 bedrooms Level 1 - 5 28 bedrooms per floor Level 6 28 bedrooms Level 7 25 bedrooms Level 8 25 bedrooms Level 9 13 bedrooms Level 10 7 bedrooms Source: 5plus Architects We understand that the hotel will be operated under the Montcalm hotel brand which operates in the upscale four to five star hotel market providing quality accommodation and service suitable for the business and leisure traveller. CBRE HOTELS | ROYAL LONDON HOUSE, FINSBURY SQUARE, LONDON Executive Summary The client already owns and manages two other Montcalm hotels (located in the West End and also nearby on Chiswell Street) plus 17 other mid market hotels located in the West End and hence is a well established and experienced owner operator. There are several hotels now located within the City of London which the proposed hotel will compete with in terms bedroom supply. In addition, hotels located in the Borough of Islington and Hackney will also compete to some extent with the subject site. The City and City fringe is becoming an increasingly popular location for hotel developers and operators to benefit from the strong corporate business which tends to be higher rated than leisure business. There was only one hotel located in the City in 1999 and now there are approximately 15 hotels, showing the growing demand of the area. However, within the City of London, the majority of hotel developments are located towards Tower Hill and the Tower of London with other developments towards St Pauls and the western edge of the City. The hotels closest to the subject property are the new Montcalm Hotel The Brewery at Chiswell Street and the Apex London Wall. The nearest hotels in the Borough of Islington are predominantly located towards Islington and Kings Cross, although the Thistle Barbican, The Zetter and Holiday Express London City are the nearest to Finsbury Square. The hotels are a mixture of standards, ranging from branded budget operations, to mid scale and upscale hotels. In order to assess the demand profile of the local hotel market we have purchased a benchmark survey produced by STR Global, which provides the key performance indicators (KPIs) of a selection of hotels in the area including hotels in similar City fringe 4 locations. We have excluded hotels operating in the budget sector and those located further afield. The hotels we have included are: Crowne Plaza Hotel London The City, Page Malmaison London, Andaz Liverpool Street, Apex London Wall and The Threadneedles Hotel. A summary of their recent performance is as follows: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD JAN 11 YTD JAN 12 EXECUTIVESUMMARY ADR £188.09 £205.36 £208.10 £177.50 £189.44 £197.70 £190.14 £187.37 RevPAR £145.83 £162.36 £149.22 £134.35 £153.35 £160.31 £135.84 £129.94 Occupancy % 77.5 79.1 71.7 75.7 80.9 81.1 71.4 69.3 Source: STR Global We have also taken consideration of the proposed hotel supply planned in the vicinity including Islington, the City of London and Hackney and assessed how competitive they are likely to be to the proposed hotel by size, location and standard of operation. In assessing our demand profile we have estimated the market segmentation for the proposed hotel (proportion of rack rate, corporate, leisure and meeting business) taking consideration of the hotel’s proposed facilities, number of bedrooms, the performance of the benchmark survey, future hotels and other similar hotels we have been involved with in the vicinity where we have been provided with trading information, on a confidential basis. Following our research, we have estimated the following occupancy and ADR (average achieved daily rate) for the proposed hotel: YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 Occupancy 73.0% 77.0% 78.1% 79.5% Average Daily Room Rate (£) 171.5 185.4 194.1 199.0 Source: CBRE Hotels Estimates CBRE HOTELS | ROYAL LONDON HOUSE, FINSBURY SQUARE, LONDON Background & Method of Approach BACKGROUND Obidos Properties Limited has recently acquired the freehold interest of Royal London House, Finsbury Square, which is currently occupied as an office building. Our client proposes to submit a planning application to Islington Council in order to obtain planning permission to redevelop the existing building and convert it to a 255 bedroom, upscale hotel, operated under its Montcalm brand. CBRE Hotels have been retained by Obidos Properties Limited to provide an independent overview and demand study of the proposed hotel. The purpose of our report is to determine the current and future demand and supply dynamics of hotels within the area and the likely demand for the proposed hotel once the building is converted, open and ready for trading. CBRE Hotels offers a wide range of services to support hotel investors, lenders, owners and developers. Our well established and experienced team are able to provide independent consultancy, marketing and sales advice, including the provision of market and financial feasibility studies, strategic reviews and execution of high profile transactions. We are able to offer high level reviews of single assets and portfolios, monthly cash flow analysis, independent projections and strategic advice in terms of positioning within the market place, capital expenditure, management contracts and branding. Our advice is solutions-orientated helping our clients make the right decisions at every stage in the development and investment process. 5 Scope of Works Page CBRE Hotels is to appraise the demand for a hotel at the subject site and the wider area for an upscale, high quality, full service hotel, as well as to understand accommodation supply and demand dynamics for Islington and the nearby boroughs of the City of London and Hackney. On the basis of these findings the report will seek to assess the proposed occupancy levels and hence demand of the proposed development. Our demand study will address the following topics: BACKGROUND& METHOD OFAPPROACH Site appraisal and locational analysis; Overview of the London hotel market; Detailed analysis of the wider Islington and City of London hotel markets to