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Afrikas Ekonomi, Mineralråvaror Och Kina Afrikas ekonomi, mineralråvaror och Kina Program • Afrika - bakgrund • Gruvindustrin i världen • Gruvindustrin i Afrika • Kina i Afrika Magnus Ericsson / 孟瑞松 Råvarugruppen, Luleå Tekniska Universitet Afrika - bakgrund Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Africa – a giant 20 % av jordytan Africa – key figures Area: 30 370 000 km² 20 % Population: 1,216 miljarder World 7,466 17 % GDP: 2141 billion USD global 75848 2.8% GNI per capita: Sub-saharan Africa 1515 USD World 10368 Sweden 54480 Africa – growing faster 1 Fastest growing countries Country 2007-2016 1 Ethiopia 10.22 2 China 9.00 3 Myanmar 8.56 4 Uzbekistan 8.36 5 Rwanda 7.62 6 Afghanistan 7.40 7 India 7.35 8 Ghana 6.84 9 Tanzania 6.70 10 Mozambique 6.67 11 Angola 6.59 12 Cambodia 6.58 13 Zambia 6.48 14 Iraq 6.39 15 Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.35 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.26 World 2.49 people million 10 than less with countries Excludes 10 12 14 Africa -4 -2 6 8 0 2 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 – 1999 growing 2 fastergrowing 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 high income) high (excluding Africa Sub-Saharan World Global gruvindustri Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Mining in the world Source: Raw Materials Data Mining - a historical perspective 70 Europe 60 USA 50 40 China 30 USSR/CIS 20 Australia/Canada % of world mining 10 6RR 0 Other Source: Sames, Raw Materials Data Minerals produced Value 2014 Commodity Mined Unit Price Unit (USD billon) Aggregates 48 000 Mt - - - Coal 8085 Mt 80 USD/t 647 Iron ore 3415 Mt 71 USD/t 146 Gold 3.1 kt 1266 USD/oz 123 Copper 18.5 Mt 6869 USD/t 98 Nickel 2.2 Mt 16860 USD/t 25 Potash 39.9 Mt 580 USD/t 23 Phosphate rock 242 Mt 79 USD/t 19 Zinc 13.7 Mt 2162 USD/t 19 Diamonds 127 Mcts - - 17 Top 10 total 11817 1133 Source: Raw Materials Data Materials Raw Source: Mineral demand • Improved living conditions • Population growth • Urbanisation Metal intensity USA use 335 kg steel per person Indonesia use 51 kg steel per person Industrialised economies uses more metals per person Metal intensity GDP Source: World Steel Association Production value 2000 Billion USD 1800 1600 1400 Other 1200 Africa 1000 India Russia 800 USA 600 Australia 400 China 200 0 Mining’s contribution 2014 4. Mongolia 9. Mali 10. Guyana 8. Burkina Faso 5. PNG 7. Peru 6. Zambia 2. Chile 1. DRC Source: RMG 3. Australia Consulting More contribution to wealth Less contribution to wealth Afrikas gruvindustri Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Mining in Africa 1 Mining in Africa 2 3000 7,00 2500 6,00 Africa value of mineral 5,00 production 2000 4,00 Africa GDP 1500 % 3,00 Billion USD Billion 1000 % 2,00 500 1,00 0 0,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mining’s contribution HIGH INCOME 2014 ECONOMY UPPER MIDDLE LOWER MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMY INCOME ECONOMY South Africa LOW INCOME Papua new guinea Brazil ECONOMY Bolivia Chile Guinea Indonesia Kazakhstan Zimbabwe Guyana Peru 13 countries Suriname Zambia climbed one Botswana Ghana step Namibia Mauritania Russia Mongolia Fiji Source: World Bank Human development index Percentage change in Human Development Index in low- and lower middle Sub-Saharan African economies 2005-2014 59% Oil 2000-2011 46% Non-mining Mining boom years Mining 1995-2014 23% 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 Mining: Burkina Faso, DRC, Cote d'Ivoire, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Source: RMG Non-mining: Central African Rep., Ethiopia, Lesotho, Benin, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Djibouti, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Malawi, Somalia, Swaziland, Uganda, Oil: Sudan, Cameroon, Congo, Rep. Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, South Sudan, Chad. Consulting, World Bank Governance Percentage change in Governance indicators in low- and lower middle SSA economies 1996-2015 Control of Oil Corruption Non-mining Mining Oil Government Oil Non-mining Effectiveness countries Mining Oil Political Non-mining Stability Non-mining Mining countries Oil Regulatory Non-mining Quality Mining Mining Oil countries Rule of Law Non-mining Mining Voice and Oil Accountability Non-mining Mining Source: RMG Consulting, World Bank -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Gini coefficent Country GINI Year GINI Year +/- Chile 56.43 1994 50.45 2013 -5.98 Papua New Guinea 50.9 1996 43.88 2009 -7.02 Guinea 46.08 1994 33.73 2012 -12.35 South Africa 59.33 1993 63.38 2011 4.05 Peru 44.02 1994 44.14 2014 0.12 Kazakhstan 32.67 1993 26.33 2013 -6.34 Zambia 52.61 1993 55.62 2010 3.01 Ghana 40.07 1997 42.77 2005 2.7 + = Inequaliteis has Guyana 52.8 1993 35 2006 -17.8 Increased Suriname 57.61 1999.. Zimbabwe 72.45 1995 43.15 2011 -29.3 - = Inequaliteis has Botswana 48.5 1994 48.1 2010 -0.4 Decreased Brazil 57.98 1996 51.48 2014 -6.5 Indonesia 34.86 1996 39.47 2013 4.61 Russian Federation 48.38 1993 41.59 2012 -6.79 Mauritania 50.05 1993 32.42 2014 -17.63 Bolivia 58.16 1997 48.4 2014 -9.76 Namibia 74.3 1993 59.7 2010 -14.6 Fiji 39.62 2002 42.78 2008 3.16 Mongolia 33.2 1995 32.04 2014 -1.16 Congo, Dem. Rep. 42.16 2004 42.1 2012 -0.06 Source: World Bank, UNU-WIDER Kina i Afrika REM drawing: Kaianders Sempler. China remains central 60 Alumini 50 um Copper 40 30 Nickel 20 Zinc % consumption total % of 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: DAIECON, IMF, WBMS., Major chinese companies Value 2014 Rank Company billion USD BHP Billiton Group 1 32.2 Shenhua Group Co Ltd 5 22.8 China National Coal Group 16 7.3 Datong Coal Mine Group 22 5.2 Shanxi Coking Coal Group 29 4.3 Yanzhou Coal Mining Co Ltd 31 4.2 Huabei/ Huainan Mining Group 35 3.8 HBIS (Hebei Iron & Steel Group) 45 3.4 Heilongjiang LongMay Mining 48 3.3 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining 49 3.3 Shuicheng Mining Group 62 2.6 China Minmetals Corp 65 2.6 Jincheng Anthracite Mining 66 2.5 Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd 110 1.4 Chinalco 114 1.4 Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd 121 1.0 China Molybdenum Co Ltd 0.7 Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese overseas mining investments Billion USD 30 25 Chinese mining 20 investments into Africa (calc) 15 10 Other overseas 5 mining investments 0 Source: NBS, RMG Consulting Major chinese companies (overseas) China Minmetals (MMG) in expansion. Las Bambas opened 2016 Zijin in expansion phase. Acquried 47% in Porgera PNG, 51% in Kolwezi DRC (in production July 2017), 40% Kamoa DRC. Rio blanco development Jinchuan in expansion phase. Bakubung platinum mine in operation 2018. Kinsenda DRC development Chinalco, world leading aluminium producer. 10% owner of Rio Tinto. Expansion in base metals. Toromocho mine in Peru, developing Simandou iron ore mine. HBIS Group Co. Ltd. (formerly Hebei Iron & Steel Group), is China's second largest iron and steel producer and third largest in the world. Developing Palabora copper mine Bayin owner of Gold One, largest shareholder (20%) in Sibanye. China molybdenum. Take over of Tenke Fungurume in DRC and Nióbio, Fosfatos Brazil. Source: Various Major chinese overseas mining m&a Source: Various Acquirer Target Country Comm Seller Price Status Tianqi Lithium Greenbushes (51%) Australia Lithium Talison $0.5 bn Completed May 2014 Minmetals-led consortium Las Bambas Peru Copper Glencore $7.0 bn Completed Aug 2014 Shangdong Iron & Steel Tonkolili Sierra Leone Iron ore African Minerals $170 m Completed Apr 2015 Laos, Guangdong Rising 2 mines and projects Gold PanAus $0.9 bn Completed Jun 2015 PNG Zijin Mining Barrick Porgera (50%) PNG Gold Barrick Gold $0.3 bn Completed Aug 2015 Zijin Mining Kamoa project DR Congo Copper Ivanhoe $0.4 bn Completed Dec 2015 Chinalco Simandou Guinea Iron ore Rio Tinto $1.3 bn Agreed Oct 2016 China Molybdenum Nióbio, Fosfatos Brasil, Brazil Nb, K2O Anglo American $1.5 bn Completed Oct 2016 China Molybdenum Tenke-Fungurume (80%) DR Congo Copper, cobalt Freeport $3.8 bn Completed Jan 2017 Yancoal Coal & Allied Australia Coal Rio Tinto $2.45 bn Agreed Jan 2017 Shandong Gold Veladero (50%) Argentina Gold Barrick $0.96 bn Agreed Apr 2017 Fosun, Hainan Mining Polyus gold (10%) Russia Gold Polyus $0.89 bn Agreed May 2017 Chinese investors Bystrinsky project (13%) Russia Copper Norilsk Nickel $100 m Dec 2015 Selected major chinese mine developments Toromocho Zijin Mining Chinalco Kolwezi Operating/Expansion Jun 2017 Bakubung $3.5+ Jinchuan $0.7 bn Complete 2018 1.3 bn Husab China National $2 bn Las Bambas $7bn Nuclear $1.64 bn Minmetals Completed Operating 2016 2017 Palabora $9 bn HBIS Group New mine level -2030 Source: Various Chinese control operating mines 2011 Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control operating mines 2014 Source: Raw Materials Data Control by Chinese companies in Africa 1 1 1 Awaso Bauxite Mine Bosai Minerals 2 Ruashi Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 3 Chambishi Copper Mine CNMC 4 Chibuluma South Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 5 Baluba Copper/Cobalt Mine China nonferrous Metals 2,3,4,5,6,7 6 Muliashi Copper Mine China nonferrous Metals 7 Kolwezi Copper Mine China Railway,SINOHYDRO 2011 8 former Zimasco Chrome Mines Sinosteel 9 Dilokong Chrome Mine Sinosteel 10 Vergenoeg Fluorspar Mine Jinchuan Group 8 9,10 Source: Raw Materials Data Gold Copper Iron Platinum Aluminium Nickel Other Control by Chinese companies in Africa 2 4 1 Mine Company Control 1 Tonkolili Iron Ore Mine Shandong Iron and Steel 100% 2 2 Bong Iron Ore Mine Wugang, China Union 100% 3 3 Awaso Bauxite Mine Bosai Minerals 80% 4 Zara Gold Mine China SFECO Group 60% 5 Bembele Manganese Mine CITIC HK 51% 5 6 Kinsevere Copper/Cobalt Mine China Minmetals 95% 7 Ruashi Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 75% 8 Chambishi Copper Mine China Nonferrous
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