Afrikas ekonomi, mineralråvaror och Kina
Program • Afrika - bakgrund • Gruvindustrin i världen • Gruvindustrin i Afrika • Kina i Afrika
Magnus Ericsson / 孟瑞松 Råvarugruppen, Luleå Tekniska Universitet
Afrika - bakgrund
Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Africa – a giant
20 % av jordytan Africa – key figures
Area: 30 370 000 km² 20 % Population: 1,216 miljarder World 7,466 17 % GDP: 2141 billion USD global 75848 2.8% GNI per capita: Sub-saharan Africa 1515 USD World 10368 Sweden 54480 Africa – growing faster growingfaster 1 Fastest growing Fastestgrowing countries 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 World Sub Rep. Dem. Congo, Iraq Zambia Cambodia Angola Mozambique Tanzania Ghana India Afghanistan Rwanda Uzbekistan Myanmar China Ethiopia - Saharan Africa Country 2007 - 2016 10.22 2.49 4.26 6.35 6.39 6.48 6.58 6.59 6.67 6.70 6.84 7.35 7.40 7.62 8.36 8.56 9.00
Excludes countries with less than 10 million people Africa – growing faster 2
14
12
10
8 World 6
4 Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income) 2
0
2010 2013 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 -2 1995
-4 Global gruvindustri
Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Mining in the world
Source: Raw Materials Data Mining - a historical perspective 70 Europe 60 USA 50
40 China
30 USSR/CIS
20 Australia/Canada % % world of mining
10 6RR
0 Other
Source: Sames, Raw Materials Data Minerals produced
Value 2014 Commodity Mined Unit Price Unit (USD billon) Aggregates 48 000 Mt - - - Coal 8085 Mt 80 USD/t 647 Iron ore 3415 Mt 71 USD/t 146 Gold 3.1 kt 1266 USD/oz 123 Copper 18.5 Mt 6869 USD/t 98 Nickel 2.2 Mt 16860 USD/t 25 Potash 39.9 Mt 580 USD/t 23 Phosphate rock 242 Mt 79 USD/t 19 Zinc 13.7 Mt 2162 USD/t 19 Diamonds 127 Mcts - - 17
Top 10 total 11817 1133 Source: Raw Materials Data Materials Raw Source: Mineral demand
• Improved living conditions
• Population growth
• Urbanisation Metal intensity
USA use 335 kg steel per person Indonesia use 51 kg steel per person Industrialised economies uses more
metals per person Metalintensity
GDP Source: World Steel Association Production value 2000 Billion USD 1800
1600
1400 Other 1200 Africa 1000 India Russia 800 USA 600 Australia 400 China
200
0 Mining’s contribution 2014
4. Mongolia
9. Mali 10. Guyana
8. Burkina Faso 5. PNG
7. Peru 6. Zambia
2. Chile 1. DRC Source: RMG 3. Australia Consulting More contribution to wealth Less contribution to wealth Afrikas gruvindustri
Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Mining in Africa 1 Mining in Africa 2
3000 7,00
2500 6,00 Africa value of mineral 5,00 production 2000 4,00 Africa GDP
1500 %
3,00 Billion USD Billion 1000 % 2,00
500 1,00
0 0,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mining’s contribution HIGH INCOME 2014 ECONOMY UPPER MIDDLE LOWER MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMY INCOME ECONOMY South Africa LOW INCOME Papua new guinea Brazil ECONOMY Bolivia Chile Guinea Indonesia Kazakhstan Zimbabwe Guyana Peru 13 countries Suriname Zambia climbed one Botswana Ghana step Namibia Mauritania Russia Mongolia Fiji Source: World Bank Human development index Percentage change in Human Development Index in low- and lower middle Sub-Saharan African economies
2005-2014 59% Oil
2000-2011 46% Non-mining Mining boom years
Mining 1995-2014 23%
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0
Mining: Burkina Faso, DRC, Cote d'Ivoire, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Source: RMG Non-mining: Central African Rep., Ethiopia, Lesotho, Benin, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Djibouti, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Malawi, Somalia, Swaziland, Uganda, Oil: Sudan, Cameroon, Congo, Rep. Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, South Sudan, Chad. Consulting, World Bank Governance Percentage change in Governance indicators in low- and lower middle SSA economies 1996-2015 Control of Oil Corruption Non-mining Mining Oil Government Oil Non-mining Effectiveness countries Mining Oil Political Non-mining Stability Non-mining Mining countries Oil Regulatory Non-mining Quality Mining Mining Oil countries Rule of Law Non-mining Mining Voice and Oil Accountability Non-mining Mining Source: RMG Consulting, World Bank -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Gini coefficent Country GINI Year GINI Year +/- Chile 56.43 1994 50.45 2013 -5.98 Papua New Guinea 50.9 1996 43.88 2009 -7.02 Guinea 46.08 1994 33.73 2012 -12.35 South Africa 59.33 1993 63.38 2011 4.05 Peru 44.02 1994 44.14 2014 0.12 Kazakhstan 32.67 1993 26.33 2013 -6.34 Zambia 52.61 1993 55.62 2010 3.01 Ghana 40.07 1997 42.77 2005 2.7 + = Inequaliteis has Guyana 52.8 1993 35 2006 -17.8 Increased Suriname 57.61 1999.. Zimbabwe 72.45 1995 43.15 2011 -29.3 - = Inequaliteis has Botswana 48.5 1994 48.1 2010 -0.4 Decreased Brazil 57.98 1996 51.48 2014 -6.5 Indonesia 34.86 1996 39.47 2013 4.61 Russian Federation 48.38 1993 41.59 2012 -6.79 Mauritania 50.05 1993 32.42 2014 -17.63 Bolivia 58.16 1997 48.4 2014 -9.76 Namibia 74.3 1993 59.7 2010 -14.6 Fiji 39.62 2002 42.78 2008 3.16 Mongolia 33.2 1995 32.04 2014 -1.16 Congo, Dem. Rep. 42.16 2004 42.1 2012 -0.06 Source: World Bank, UNU-WIDER Kina i Afrika
REM drawing: Kaianders Sempler. China remains central
60 Alumini 50 um Copper 40 30 Nickel
20 Zinc
% consumption total of % 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: DAIECON, IMF, WBMS., Major chinese companies Value 2014 Rank Company billion USD BHP Billiton Group 1 32.2 Shenhua Group Co Ltd 5 22.8 China National Coal Group 16 7.3 Datong Coal Mine Group 22 5.2 Shanxi Coking Coal Group 29 4.3 Yanzhou Coal Mining Co Ltd 31 4.2 Huabei/ Huainan Mining Group 35 3.8 HBIS (Hebei Iron & Steel Group) 45 3.4 Heilongjiang LongMay Mining 48 3.3 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining 49 3.3 Shuicheng Mining Group 62 2.6 China Minmetals Corp 65 2.6 Jincheng Anthracite Mining 66 2.5 Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd 110 1.4 Chinalco 114 1.4 Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd 121 1.0 China Molybdenum Co Ltd 0.7 Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese overseas mining investments
Billion USD 30
25 Chinese mining 20 investments into Africa (calc) 15
10 Other overseas 5 mining investments 0
Source: NBS, RMG Consulting Major chinese companies (overseas) China Minmetals (MMG) in expansion. Las Bambas opened 2016
Zijin in expansion phase. Acquried 47% in Porgera PNG, 51% in Kolwezi DRC (in production July 2017), 40% Kamoa DRC. Rio blanco development
Jinchuan in expansion phase. Bakubung platinum mine in operation 2018. Kinsenda DRC development
Chinalco, world leading aluminium producer. 10% owner of Rio Tinto. Expansion in base metals. Toromocho mine in Peru, developing Simandou iron ore mine.
HBIS Group Co. Ltd. (formerly Hebei Iron & Steel Group), is China's second largest iron and steel producer and third largest in the world. Developing Palabora copper mine
Bayin owner of Gold One, largest shareholder (20%) in Sibanye.
China molybdenum. Take over of Tenke Fungurume in DRC and Nióbio, Fosfatos Brazil. Source: Various Major chinese overseas mining m&a Source: Various
Acquirer Target Country Comm Seller Price Status
Tianqi Lithium Greenbushes (51%) Australia Lithium Talison $0.5 bn Completed May 2014
Minmetals-led consortium Las Bambas Peru Copper Glencore $7.0 bn Completed Aug 2014
Shangdong Iron & Steel Tonkolili Sierra Leone Iron ore African Minerals $170 m Completed Apr 2015
Laos, Guangdong Rising 2 mines and projects Gold PanAus $0.9 bn Completed Jun 2015 PNG
Zijin Mining Barrick Porgera (50%) PNG Gold Barrick Gold $0.3 bn Completed Aug 2015
Zijin Mining Kamoa project DR Congo Copper Ivanhoe $0.4 bn Completed Dec 2015
Chinalco Simandou Guinea Iron ore Rio Tinto $1.3 bn Agreed Oct 2016
China Molybdenum Nióbio, Fosfatos Brasil, Brazil Nb, K2O Anglo American $1.5 bn Completed Oct 2016
China Molybdenum Tenke-Fungurume (80%) DR Congo Copper, cobalt Freeport $3.8 bn Completed Jan 2017
Yancoal Coal & Allied Australia Coal Rio Tinto $2.45 bn Agreed Jan 2017
Shandong Gold Veladero (50%) Argentina Gold Barrick $0.96 bn Agreed Apr 2017
Fosun, Hainan Mining Polyus gold (10%) Russia Gold Polyus $0.89 bn Agreed May 2017
Chinese investors Bystrinsky project (13%) Russia Copper Norilsk Nickel $100 m Dec 2015 Selected major chinese mine developments
Toromocho Zijin Mining Chinalco Kolwezi Operating/Expansion Jun 2017 Bakubung $3.5+ Jinchuan $0.7 bn Complete 2018 1.3 bn Husab China National $2 bn Las Bambas $7bn Nuclear $1.64 bn Minmetals Completed Operating 2016 2017 Palabora $9 bn HBIS Group New mine level -2030 Source: Various Chinese control operating mines 2011
Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control operating mines 2014
Source: Raw Materials Data Control by Chinese companies in Africa 1
1 1 Awaso Bauxite Mine Bosai Minerals 2 Ruashi Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 3 Chambishi Copper Mine CNMC 4 Chibuluma South Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 5 Baluba Copper/Cobalt Mine China nonferrous Metals 2,3,4,5,6,7 6 Muliashi Copper Mine China nonferrous Metals 7 Kolwezi Copper Mine China Railway,SINOHYDRO 2011 8 former Zimasco Chrome Mines Sinosteel 9 Dilokong Chrome Mine Sinosteel 10 Vergenoeg Fluorspar Mine Jinchuan Group 8
9,10
Source: Raw Materials Data
Gold Copper Iron Platinum Aluminium Nickel Other Control by Chinese companies in Africa 2
4 1 Mine Company Control 1 Tonkolili Iron Ore Mine Shandong Iron and Steel 100% 2 2 Bong Iron Ore Mine Wugang, China Union 100% 3 3 Awaso Bauxite Mine Bosai Minerals 80% 4 Zara Gold Mine China SFECO Group 60% 5 Bembele Manganese Mine CITIC HK 51% 5 6 Kinsevere Copper/Cobalt Mine China Minmetals 95% 7 Ruashi Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 75% 8 Chambishi Copper Mine China Nonferrous Metals 85% 2017 9 Chibuluma South Copper Mine Jinchuan Group 85% 6,7,8,9,10,11,18,20 10 Baluba Copper/Cobalt Mine China Nonferrous Metals 85% 11 Muliashi Copper Mine China Nonferrous Metals 85% 12 former Zimasco Chrome Mines Sinosteel 86% 13 Husab Uranimum Mine China National Nuclear 90% 12 14 Dilokong Chrome Mine Sinosteel 60% 13 15 Vergenoeg Fluorspar Mine Jinchuan Group 70% 19 14,15,16,17,21 16 Palabora UG Copper Mine Hebei Steel 75% 17 Petrex Gold Mines Baiyin NMG, CADFund 90% 18 Tenke Fungurume Copper Mine China Molybdenum Co 80% 19 Langer Heinrich Uranimum Mine China National Nuclear 20% 20 Kolwezi Copper Mine China Railway,SINOHYDRO 48% 21 Modder East Gold Mine Baiyin NMG, CADFund 90%
Gold Copper Iron Platinum Aluminium Nickel Other Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control, projects 2014
Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control in Africa in perspective
Copper production in Gold production in Africa Africa 2014, total 2069 kt 2014, total 610 ton
2% Australian Australian 4% companies companies 17% 24% Canadian Canadian companies Copper companies Gold 1% 61% 13% Chinese Chinese companies companies 78%
Other Other
Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese copper control
China to control ~ 13% 30-35% of copper China 2014 production in Africa 2018 12% Tenke Fungurume
Kolwezi 5% 2% Kamoa 68% Other
Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control in Africa in perspective
Control of African mining 2014, total value 100 billion USD
Chinese companies Anglo American 2,4% 6,1% Glencore Anglogold Ashanti 12,6% Exxaro OCP
4,1% Sibanye Gold First Quantum 3,7% Impala Platinum African Rainbow 100 billion 2,5% Randgold Barrick USD 2,1% 2,0% Harmony Gold Fields 48,9% Newmont Vedanta ENRC SeverStal Kinross Freeport-McMoRan Other Artisinal gold Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control in Africa in perspective
2% 7% 2% Australian companies
13% Canadian companies Chinese companies 4% Anglo American
Glencore 72% Other
Source: Raw Materials Data Chinese control overseas Chinese industrial mining companies (non ASM) control mineral output outside China to a value of 11 billion USD 2014. Copper is the dominant metal and Oceania main region
By commodity By region Other Lead 3% Gold 3% Africa 10% 22% Copper Iron ore 11 billion 38% 11 billion 13% USD Oceania USD 51% Asia 16% Zinc 13% Latin Europe North Coal America 1% America 20% 10% 0% Source: Raw Materials Data Myths and facts
➢ China is still a minor player in global mining outside of China. ➢ China has NOT taken control over Africa’s mineral resources. ➢ China is increasing its presence in Africa, BUT from a very low level. ➢ China is in control of 2.4% of Africa’s mining output 2014, Anglo American is in control of 12.6%. ➢ Copper is the single most important commodity for Chinese investments. ➢ Chinese investors range from small-scale operators to large state-owned companies. They behave differently. It is NOT possible to treat them as one. ➢ Chinese investments into Africa create competition and give African governments an alternative to traditional investors and potentially the possibility to chose. Tack för uppmärksamheten
Magnus Ericsson / 孟瑞松
RMG Consulting 070/558 0065 PRODUCTION VALUE I
2000 80,00 Others 1800 Silver 60,00 1600 Diamond value 1400 Zinc 40,00
1200 Phosphate rock
Y -
1000 20,00o
- Potash Y 800 Nickel 0,00 600 Copper 400 -20,00 Gold 200 Iron ore 0 -40,00 Coal Y-o-Y Source: Raw Materials Data MINING IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
70 Europe
60 USA
50 China 40 USSR/CIS 30
20 Australia/Canada % % world of mining
10 Chile, Peru, Brazil, DRC, South Africa, 0 Zambia
Other
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1984 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030
Source: Sames, Raw Materials Data TOTAL CHINESE MINING DEAL VALUES
Mining 77 billion USD USD 2007-2017
2007 2017
Source: Bloomberg CHINESE CONTROL, PROJECTS 2011
Source: Raw Materials Data
Selected major Chinese mine developments
Company Mine Country Metal Status Capex (bn) Complete
Jinchuan Bakubung South Africa Platinum Construction USD 1.64 2018
China National Husab Namibia Uranium Operating USD 2 Nuclear 2017
HBIS Group Palabora South Africa Copper New level USD 9.3 Until 2030
Pre- Zijin Mining Kolwezi DR Congo Copper USD 0.7 June 2017 production
Chinalco Toromocho Peru Copper Operating USD 3.5+1.3 2012-17
Zijin Mining Rio Blanco Peru Copper Feasibility USD 2.5 2016 -
Source: Various