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Howard Government Retrospective I Howard Government Retrospective I “1996” Articles by Professor Tom Frame 16 November 2016 Howard Government Retrospective: 1996 Introduction Perspectives and Polemics: Assessing the Howard Government Professor Tom Frame after an event will never stand as the final word. Dispassionate historical analysis takes time and the benefits ought to be savoured. The Howard Government is now being consigned to history. I base this statement on four observations. First, the Howard Government was elected more two decades ago and defeated nearly a decade ago. The passage of time has allowed the dust to settle making the genuine successes and actual failures of the Coalition a little easier to discern. Only some of what appeared to matter between 1996 and 2007 now matters. Decisions that were hailed as triumphs and policies derided as failures are now free from the forces that obscured their character and the immediacy that concealed their significance. The introduction of the GST, for instance, did not produce the range of adverse outcomes forecast by pundits. Although supporting the new tax in the Senate contributed to the demise of the Australian Democrats, the party’s leader Meg o say that something is being ‘consigned Lees continues to believe the country needed a Tto history’ might infer that an object has consumption tax. The passage of time has made no contemporary relevance or continuing it possible for historians to apply the principles significance; that it is best forgotten and wisely of their discipline to the place of the Howard struck from memory; and, that its slide from Government in the nation’s life. the present to the past ought to be welcomed. Second, the Howard Government is no longer the Consigning something to history is analogous in ‘previous Coalition Government’ against which many instances to saying ‘good riddance’ to an the performance of subsequent governments unwanted object unworthy of lament. But there is is compared. The performance of the Rudd a positive sense in something being ‘consigned and Gillard Governments was routinely to history’. There is the inference that something compared with the achievements of the Howard has been placed beyond the uncertainty and Government. These contrasts may have been confusion of the present; that it ought to be unfair and the conclusions drawn inaccurate but treated with dignity and respect because it they were still made. Commentators noted the provides a context in which the future might buoyancy of the economy during the Coalition’s be anticipated; that its shape and substance rule under John Howard and Peter Costello can be more closely and conscientiously (1996-2007) with its health under Kevin Rudd and examined than before. In most Western societies, Wayne Swan (2007-10), and then Julia Gillard history is respected and revered, preserved and Wayne Swan (2010-13), and finally (and and presented as a treasured storehouse of briefly) Kevin Rudd and Chris Bowen (2013). But insights and wisdom, promise and possibility. after the Liberal Party’s decision to substitute Although the claim that those who are ignorant Malcolm Turnbull for Tony Abbott as leader in of history are likely to repeat its mistakes is September 2015, the Turnbull Government has met with some scepticism because students been more frequently compared with the Abbott of history sometimes replicate its tragedies, Government, with Coalition parliamentarians there is no doubt that commentary immediately 2 University of New South Wales Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy Howard Government Retrospective: 1996 regretting the leadership spill emphasising the of those members and senators who agreed or contrasts. In the same way that the Coalition disagreed privately with policy options. Official could criticise the Keating Government by records may also hint at controversies that were comparing it to the performance of the Hawke avoided, scandals that were concealed and Government, thereby effectively consigning the disagreements that were subdued. Reducing the Whitlam Government to history, the continuing closed period also increases the opportunity for tension between Tony Abbott and Malcolm researchers to conduct interviews with surviving Turnbull has effectively hastened the eclipse participants based on primary source materials. of the Howard Government’s significance as a With the release of official records not far away, political yardstick and allowed more measured historians will be able to assemble the best and less polemical historical assessment. picture possible of the Howard Government. Third, the publication of first-hand accounts In assessing the years 1996-2007, researchers of the Howard Government has considerably also need to be self-aware and conscious of that enlarged the source materials upon which well-known taxonomy that suggests the historical historians must necessarily rely to make record passes through at least three well-defined judgements and draw conclusions. John Howard stages. In the first stage, history is written by has been the subject of biographies by David the victors or survivors, largely from published Barnett with Pru Goward published in 19971 sources, within a framework of ‘conventional and by Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen wisdom’ shared by the participant writers. In published in 2007.2 Notably, the first appeared the second stage, the conventional paradigm not long after John Howard became Prime handed down from the participant writers is Minister; the second not long before he became challenged, often a priori, by a later generation a former Prime Minister. John Howard produced of non-participant writers. In the third stage, his own very substantial account, Lazarus non-participant writers not only challenge the Rising: A Personal and Political Autobiography, in received paradigm, but perceive the evidence October 2010. Memoirs and diaries from senior (and the questions to be asked of it) in entirely ministers have been produced or published by different ways from earlier generations of Peter Costello,3 Tony Abbott4 and Peter Reith.5 participant writers. In each instance, these works are explanations or clarifications of decisions and events that the The rise and fall of the Howard Government participants expect historians to take into account has already been described by a handful of when assessing the Howard Government. They active participants including journalists (who are better treated as historical resources rather made the news as much as they reported it), than as histories in their own right. public servants and cabinet ministers. These are essentially personal accounts of what was Fourth, the official records relating to the Howard seen, heard and done although the publication Government’s first year in office will be made of political memoirs relies upon familiarity with available to researchers on 1 January 2019. matters that, in some instances, remain the This might seem an odd moment – 23 years subject of confidentiality or security provisions. after the Coalition was elected in March 1996. Most of these works appeared in the aftermath of Under amendments to the Archives Act 1983 the Coalition’s electoral defeat in November 2007. approved by the Federal Parliament in May 2010, In my view, the transition through the first stage the closed period for Commonwealth records of the taxonomy is now largely complete. will be gradually reduced from 30 years to 20 years by 1 January 2021. As a function of the The history of the Howard Government is reduced waiting time, records from 1996 will be presently located between the first and second available in 2019. It is, of course, very difficult for stages. Because it held power for nearly twelve historians to produce critical and comprehensive years, it is possible to approach the early years assessments of the Howard Government without in a different way to the later years, especially access to official records which will disclose as the release of official documents will allow confidential advice, guidance and the warnings researchers access to previously unavailable that were provided to the Government, the timing material. The ability to conduct primary archival of particular announcements or the basis for research will mark the beginning of the third certain decisions, and the names and motivations stage of the taxonomy. It appears as though the second phase will probably be the shortest Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society (ACSACS) 3 Howard Government Retrospective: 1996 in duration although it has been the subject of finance was more democratic and more much more terse political commentary than effective than those of his principal political measured historical assessment. opponents, the Labor leader Arthur Calwell and the DLP Senate leader Vince Gair. I could Most appraisals of the Howard Government not avoid explaining why Holt’s approach was, are better termed ‘commentary’ than history. in my judgement, to be preferred as a matter Although some commentaries deal with matters of abiding principle. My point is simply that of historic significance, commentary is not assessments of the Howard Government ought history. The handling of sources, the weighing of to become less partisan and less political given evidence, the devising of conclusions reflect well the passage of time. established disciplinary rules. I would argue that most appraisals are commentary because they To date, the Howard Government has been the either lack perspective or reflect
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