Future R'Si. .nti. Development in Cen ral HB D'strict
April20Z5
Report Prepared by Sean Be vin, Consulting Economic Analyst Economic Solutions Ltd, Napier Erno": sean bevin econom CSolut ons co nz
Executive Summary
In July 2014, Economic Solutions Ltd (ESL) prepared a report for the Council concerning the long-term demographic and economic growth outlook for the Central Hawkes Bay District, covering the period 2014-2046.
ESL has subsequently been requested by the Council to provide additional analysis supplementing the contents of the above report, concerning the anticipated location within the district and associated amount of new residential housing development during the long-term projection period.
The analysis in the report again relates to the two projection scenarios used in last year's report, namely the 'Status Quo' scenario reflecting a continuation of underlying historical demographic growth patterns in the district and the 'RWSS' scenario incorporating the potential demographic impacts over the projection period of the major Ruataniwha Water Storage Scheme. As with last year's report, Statistics NZ's Medium or 'middle of the road' population projection has been used as the basis for preparing the Status Quo household growth projection. The High or most optimistic population projection of SNZ has been used for preparing the 'with RWSS' household projection beyond year 2026. Both projection scenarios also continue the historical trend of falling household occupancy, over the 2013-2046 period.
The projection period covered by the analysis comprises two parts, specifically the next Long Term Plan interval 20/5/16 to 2025/26 and the following 20-yearinterval. In the latter regard, it is noted that this follow-up report updates last year's population and household growth projections (which were based on the 2006 Census results) taking into account the latest Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) sub-national population projections based on 2013 Census results. It is also noted that as SNZ's latest population projections only cover the period out to Year 2043, ESL's population and household growth projections contained in this supplementary report have been extrapolated out to 2046.
Table A below summarises the latest household growth projections for the Central Hawkes Bay District for the 2013-2046 period, for both the Status Quo and RWSS scenarios. The figures in the table indicate that under the Status Quo projection scenario, the total number of households in the District increases by 549 or 10% over 2015-2026 and by 554 or 9.3% over 2026-2046. With the RWSS, the total number of households in the District also increases by 549 or logy. over 2015-2026 (the same as for the Status Quo scenario) but by 1,280 or 21% over 2026-2046. The RWSS results in a total of 7,250 households in the District by year 2046, 726 or 11% more households than the Status Quo projection situation.
TABLE A: 2013 CENSUS BASED STATUS Quo AND RWSS HOUSEHOLD GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CHBD 2013-2046 Projected Households Year
Status Quo RWSS
20.3 Base Actuals 5,333 5,333
20.5 5,421 5,421
2026 5,970 5,970
2046 6,524 7,250
Assuming a continuation over the 2013-2026 projection period of the overall historical locational profile of new residential development in the District, the leading broad residential growth localities for the period are expected to be the Waipukurau, Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Tikokino and Waipawa Census Area Units (CAUs), in this order. In addition, the general historical profile of housing growth in the district (whereby 55% of total new dwellings have been located adjacent to, on the fringe of or within the main urban zones, 30% have been rural residential including rural townships and lifestyle housing, and the balance coastal developments) is also assumed for the period under the Status Quo projection scenario. Over the 2026-2045 period, the additional household growth in the District is also concentrated in the Waipukurau, Elsthorpe-Flemington, Tikokino and Waipawa CAU areas, in this order.
If the RWSS proceeds, the report is of the view that given the current timing of the construction period for the project and the initial years of its evolving operation, the Scheme is unlikely to have a significant impact on new housing demand in the district over the next LTP period (201 5-2026). It is anticipated that housing requirements associated with the construction of the Scheme will be met largely from existing available accommodation supply in the District such as rental housing and visitor/community accommodation, as well as possibly the construction of temporary accommodation for the construction workforce. Consequently, the report considers that the Status Quo/Medium household growth projection scenario should also suffice for the next LTP period involving the construction and initial operation of the RWSS. However, the Council should closely monitor new housing growth in the District during the period, in order to assess the extent to which it is aligned with the Medium projection scenario for the period.
Whilst the initial years of operation of the RWSS during the second half of the next LTP period are not expected to see any major change from the existing broad locational profile of residential development in the district, the years following could see emerging trends such as increased housing demand 'on farm' or in close proximity to farms being serviced by the RWSS, increased rural-residential or small rural town housing demand (particularly in the Tikokino CAU area) and increased housing demand within and around the main urban centres of Waipukurau and Waipawa. Over the 2026-2046 period, the leading areas of new housing growth in the District with the RWSS project are, in order, Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Waipukurau, Waipawa and Tikokino. Over the 201 3-2046 period, the Median age of the CHBD population is currently projected to increase from 43.1 to 54.3 years under the Statistics NZ Medium population growth scenario, with the 65+ population more than doubling. At this time, the impact of the RWSS on the District's population is envisaged as being a general 'softening' of the ageing trend in the area particularly with new younger residents and families living and working in the area. Subsequent to its report prepared last year for the Council on the long-term demographic and economic growth outlook for the Central Hawke's Bay District (CHBD), Economic Solutions Ltd (ESL) has been requested by the Council to provide further detailed information on the anticipated location and associated level of new housing development in CHBD over the long-term planning period. This information is intended to assist the Council in its planning for future services and infrastructurel provision in the district.
For the purposes of this report, the long-term period comprises two parts, the next LTP (Long-Term Plan) interval 2015-2025 and the 20-year interval following this, that is, 2026-2046. Within this, ESL has also be asked to comment on future residential development in CHBD, both without and with the proposed RWSS (Ruataniwha Water Storage Scheme) project. The 'without RWSS' scenario represents the 'Status Quo' position which essentially reflects a continuation of long-term historical demographic trends in the district.
The specific matters addressed in the following sections of the report are as follows:
. Historical residential growth within the district. . Future residential growth under the Status Quo scenario. . Future residential growth under the RWSS scenario.
The information sources used for the analysis contained in the report are indicated in the different sections following
It is noted that relevant information from the report prepared for the Council last year concerning the long-term growth outlook for CHBD, is also included in this later report.
This section indicates the location and amount of new residential development in CHBD since the 2001 Census year. The indicators of 'households' and 'consented new residential dwellings' are both used in the analysis, with data results for the indicators being sourced from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) information.
2.2 Appendices I(A) and I(B) are sourced directly from last year's report and indicate both historical and projected population and household growth in CHBD under the Status Quo growth scenario, based on the 2006 Census results.
2.3 Table I over-page and below the map summarises the change in the number of households in the different Census Area Units (CAUs) in the district, between 2001 and 2013. On the basis of SNZ figures, one 'household' basically equates to one 'occupied private dwelling' on Census night. CAUs refer to the broad collection areas that are used for the administration of Census survey forms at each
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Census. Figure I above the table provides a map of the different CAUs within CHBD. The table provides a broad locational profile of the additional residential development occurring in the district since 2001.
2.4 It should be noted that SNZ uses the Census 'household' indicator for its projections on future residential growth for the various districts and regions in New Zealand.
FIGURE I: MAP OF CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT CENSUS AREA UNITS AND LOCALITIES 2013
Rangitikei Hastings District District
.wakar
onkokino
.Bbckburn OArgy E SI Tlkoklno . re . . .Elsthorpe ^shley, :linton wa Mariawatu Wal kuruu airakau Walpawa District angakuri Beach d. Iaturria Tak u Takapau comakere
ourerere Elsttiorpe-Fleming ton .
lackhead .walling ford
orangahau Tararua e Paerahi Warigaorapa District
angaehu
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd TABLE I : CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2001-2013 CENSUS PERIOD BY CENSUS AREA UNIT.
Households Change CAU
2001 20.3
Otane 182 235 53 29.1
Waipawa 756 841 85 11.2
Waipukurau 1543 1653 110 7.1
Elsthorpe-Flemington 1090 1239 149 13.7
Porengahau 99 88 -11 -I 1.1
Tikokino 923 1067 144 15.6
Takapau 204 210 6 29
TOTAL 4797 5333 536 11.2
25 The results in the table indicate that the leading CAU growth areas over the period were, in numerical terms, Elsthorpe-Flemington, Tikokino, Waipukurau, Waipawa and Otane. In percentage terms, the leading growth areas have been Otane, Tikokino and Elsthorpe-Flemington.
2.6 However, it should be noted that a significant proportion of the household growth in Elsthorpe- Fleming ton CAU and an element of the household growth in the Tikokino CAU have in fact been located either within or relatively closely adjacent to the established urban areas of Waipukurau and Waipawa (including urban fringe development).
It should also be rioted that residential building consent results for the period indicate that the locational profile of new residential development in the district prior to the latest major economic downturn (i. e. the 2001-2008 period) has generally continued for the post downturn period (i. e. 2009-2014). For both intervals, the main areas for new residential building have been the Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Waipawa- Waipukurau, Tikokino and Otane CAUs.
28 This section provides the results of analysis that has been undertaken of the location within the district for new housing developments consented over the 2001-2014 calendar years' The analysis is primarily
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd ^I intended to provide a more detailed picture of where new residential development has occurred in CHBD over the period. The following points are pertinent:
2.81 The base data for the analysis is sourced from SNZ.
2.82 The detail in the table in Appendix 2 indicates the annual number of new dwellings consented over the period for the different meshblock areas within the different CAUs of the district. A meshblock is the smallest geographic area for which Census and other data is collected by SNZ. Especially in an urban context, a meshblock represents a specific grouping of streets/households and is a survey administration focus for Census enumerators. It is noted that meshblock and CAU boundaries do not always align within commonly recognised local 'communities of interest'.
28.3 To assist an understanding of the specific locations of new housing development over the period, street names associated with meshblock areas are also included in the table. This information relates primarily to the established urban zones of Waipukurau and Waipawa.
28.4 The table indicates that the leading housing development areas either within or close to the Waipukurau Urban Zone have been, in order, the general Mt Herbert Rd area, Brooker Place, Porengahau Rd (urban/rural), Tavistock Rd and Racecourse Rd (urban/rural). For the Waipawa Urban Zone, the leading development area has been Abbotsford Rd, Great North Rd, 'the Bush' and Taumumu Rd. Other areas of significant housing development since 2001 in the Elsthorpe-Flemington and Tikokino CAUs but located relatively close to the Waipawa-Waipukurau Urban Zone include the SH2 area between Otane and Waipawa, Elsthorpe Rd, Hatuma Rd, Kyle Rd and Ireland Rd. New housing development in Otane CAU has occurred mostly in the Rochfort St area.
28.5 The map in Figure 2 on page 4 of the report shows the geographical location and associated amount of consented new housing development in CHBD over the 2001-2014 period. Whilst the map indicates a fairly dispersed pattern of development throughout the district, nevertheless a majority of the development has been within or close to the main urban concentrations in the district.
28.6 Appendices 3(A) and 3(B) indicate the location of the new residential development within the Waipawa/Otane and Waipukurau Urban Zones, over the period.
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd FIGURE 2
Ma Of The Number Of Dwellings Consented In CHB Between 2001 And 2014 By Meshblock
Hastings District
I . . 7 .
a 2 2 4 , I In 6
. Waka^ ^. ^4.. I 15
Waipawa co
I, Pubhco , Blechwn 4 fun, U East 81 I , I a . , ^/, to . 3 or'on"19n a P. tung^ Eb"tome , fortsy dimn . , folico" 2 7 9 , . . ,, hakeka a . us19BkUl . , ,,_ ' _,," 4 , Md, ,*. 3 2 damu Lake than" I~^'~ a 3 3 Hat'". Onek", a B , 3 ,
, Pm""a.
want. " RUT, I^10n a ^,,""" ,
Blast"d , 53 4 W"he I'd
. 5. . e^;.-^ 2 .\ ,
2 ,e . , . - @1nu Le end . Waipukurau Sbi. kirili*rin To Pager11 H a M. ,,, ampq ,_- *. NIOl", yso CA Un" A, ". I 4 I.
of DIG" Dadii, I, , 2 hashNodt. Wrengad" 3:^;g3. ^;; E, geS ;j$i;21- - Tararua District ^g;^',- a :
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd 2.87 Table 2 below indicates the total number of consented new dwellings for the different CAUs in CHBD for the Census period 2001-2013. The leading areas for the indicator are Elsthorpe-Flemington, Waipukurau and Tikokino in this order. Approximately 55% of the consented new dwellings have been for the general main urban centres of the district, 15% coastal and the balance of 30% rural- residential/rural town/rural-lifestyle residential development.
TABLE 2: CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT CONSENTED NEW DWELLINGS 2001-2013
Consented Dwellings CAU
% of Total
Otane 25 3.9
Waipawa 62 9.6
Waipukurau 153 237
Elsthorpe-Flemington 255 39.5
Porengahau 20 3.1
Tikokino 123 19.1
Takapau 7 1.1
CAU TOTAL 645 100.0
Within or Adjacent to Main Urban Areas 355 55.0
Coastal Area Housing 90 15.0
Rural-Residential/Rural Town/Rural Lifestyle 200 30.0 Housing
TOTAL 645 100.0
28.8 It should be rioted from the results in Tables I and 2 that there is a significant difference between the change in households and consented new dwelling figures during the historical period. For example, between 2001 and 2013, the total number of households in the district increased by 536 whilst the number of new dwellings receiving consent increased by an estimated 645. The reasons for the difference include Census night household numbers significantly undercounting actual household numbers (SNZ household projections directly address this issue by using the month of June in each
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay20, .5. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Census year as the base period for new household projections), not all dwelling consents resulting in actual new building 'on the ground' and housing demolitions not being taken into account.
As rioted in the introduction to the report, the 'Status Quo' scenario represents, for the purposes of the report, a continuation of the historical long-term pattern of population and household growth in CHBD. The scenario therefore excludes the potential demographic impacts in the district of the RWSS project.
32 Review of the historical growth pattern of population and households in CHBD (Appendix I) indicates that both indicators have been growing closest to the SNZ 'Medium' or 'middle of the road' growth scenario for the area. This situation therefore reflects the 'Status Quo' scenario in terms of future planning in relation to the demographic and household growth outlook for the district.
3.3 It is noted that SNZ has recently released new population growth projections for all regions and districts in New Zealand, based on the 2013 Census results. Previous projections included in District Plan and LTP related economic reports prepared by ESL for the Council over the past two years, were fundamentally based on the 2006 Census. Appendices 4(A) and 4(B) provide the Status Quo growth scenario population and household projection results for CHBD, based on the 2013 Census results. The population projection for the District is directly sourced from SNZ whilst the Census Area Unit population projections reflect a continuation of the CAU shares (of the total District population) prevailing in 2013.
34 It is noted that the latest SNZ projections indicate the population of CHBD falling by 1,550 or 11.7% over 2013-2046, whereas the earlier 2006 Census based projections indicate a relatively small population decline of just 300 or 2.3%. It is further noted though that the projections prepared last year for the period out to year 2046 were based on SNZ projections for the period to year 2031 and extrapolation of these results for the period 2031-2046. The updated population projections for the District are however based on SNZ projections for the later period through to year 2043.
3.5 Table 3 below provides both sets of projection results for the district as a whole.
TABLE 3: 2006/2013 CENSUS BASED MEDIUM POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT.
Projected Medium Population Year
2006 Census 2013 Census
20.3 13,300 13,300
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay20, .5. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Projected Medium Population Year
2006 Census 2013 Census
20.5 I3,440 13,290
2026 13,450 13,260
2031 13,250 12,910
2043 13,060 12,050
2046 I3,000 11,750
As the table indicates, on the basis of the later (2013 Census) results, SNZ is now projecting a lower total population figure for the district for the next LTP period (2015-2026) and a much sharper population decline for the long-term period 2026-2046. The difference between the two projection figures in 2046 is in the order of I I %.
3.6 To date, SNZ has not prepared any updated 2013 Census yearbased household growth projections at the regional and district levels in New Zealand. Consequently, ESL has prepared its own set of projections based on the population projections in Table 3 above and assuming a continuation of the long-term historical downward trend in the level of average household occupancy (persons per household) for the district as a whole. Table 4 below presents the household growth projections prepared by ESL for the Council last year (based on the 2006 Census results) and ESL's updated (2013 Census based) household projections.
TABLE 4: 2006/2013 CENSUS BASED MEDIUM HOUSEHOLD GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT.
Projected Medium Household Growth Year
2006 Census 20.3 Census
20.3 5,333 5,333
20.5 5,457 5,421
2026 5,750 5,970
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Projected Medium Household Growth Year
2006 Census 2013 Census
2031 5,845 6,101
2046 6,010 6,524
The results in the table indicate that the number of households in the district under the updated projection is noticeably higher than with the earlier projection. This is primarily due to the anticipated greater fall in average household occupancy in the district incorporated in the updated projection. At the same time, the number of households under the updated projection increases by 1,191 or 22.3% over 2013-2046, compared to 677 or13% forthe 2006 Census based projection.
38 Over the 2001-2013 Census period, the distribution of households between the different CAUs in CHBD was largely unchanged. Assuming a continuation of the 2013 Census distribution profile, the number of households in each CAU in that year and in ensuing projection years is as indicated in Table 5 below. The leading growth areas are, in order, Waipukurau, Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Tikokino and Waipawa CAUs. The broad pattern of housing development as indicated in the second part of Table 2 on page 5 is also expected to continue.
3.9 It is rioted in respect of future urban development in CHBD that the report prepared for the Council by ESL in July 2014, concerning the long-term growth outlook for the district, commented that "..... there is considerable available housing capacity within existing Waipukurau-Waipawa and rural township zoned residential areas to accommodate additional residential development in the District"
TABLE 5: PROJECTED STATUS Quo HOUSEHOLD GROWTH CHBD CAus 2013-2046 BASED ON 2013 CENSUS RESULTS
CAU 20.3 2015 2026 2046 Change 201 3-2046
Otane 235 239 265 290 55
Waipawa 841 855 940 1,025 184
Waipukurau 1,653 1,680 1,851 2,020 367
Elsthorpe-Flemington 1,239 1,259 1,384 1,514 275
Porengahau 88 89 100 110 22
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Tikokino 1,067 1,084 1,195 1,305 238
Takapau 210 215 235 260 50
CAUTOTAL 5,333 5,421 5,970 6,524 1,191
3.10 Assuming the same broad locational profile of the new household growth in the District over 2013-2046 as for the 2001-2013 period, the additional household growth will comprise Urban based 655, rural 357 and coastal the balance of 179.
4.1 Appendices 5(A) and 5(B) provide the tables that were prepared last year in relation to forecast population and household growth in CHBD, with the implementation of the RWSS. These tables were developed on the basis of the 2006 Census results.
4.2 This section comments on the anticipated residential developmenVgrowth path for CHBD assuming the RWSS proceeds and construction of the project begins in the 20/5/16 year and taking into account SNZ's updated population projections for the district based on the 2013 Census results
4.3 At this stage, the full construction period for the Scheme, including the establishment of the irrigation network, is estimated at 12 years, with the actual darn construction and initial parts of the irrigation network occurring within the first four years' The actual operation of the Scheme is therefore anticipated to begin, on the basis of this timing, during the 2019120 year.
Given the short-term 'defined period' nature of the Scheme construction stage, it is anticipated that it will not have a significant impact on the underlying demand for additional permanent residential housing in the district. The additional local accommodation requirements associated with the construction stage are expected to be largely met through the use of existing resources (e. g. available rental housing/visitor accommodation/community housing options) and possibly, if necessary, the construction of suitable temporary dwellings.
4.5 The anticipated start time for the operation of the Scheme indicated in 42 above, infers that only the first 6-7 years of its actual operating life are likely to occur within the next Council LTP period. Even then, the direct agricultural land-use impacts of the Scheme are expected to only evolve over time with only a proportion of them occurring within the LTP period.
4.6 Consequently, it is suggested that from a residential development perspective, the Council's future planning work for the next LTP period be guided by the updated Medium household growth projection
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd track out to Year 2026, as indicated in Table 4 on page 6. This includes both the overall level of additional household development in the district and also its location around the area.
Appendices 6(A) and 6(B) provide the RWSS related population and associated household growth projections for CHBD and based on the 2013 Census results. The projections for the next 2015-2026 LTP period are the same as for the Status Quo growth scenario.
4.8 It is recommended that the Council closely monitors household development trends in the district during the next LTP period and assesses their implications on a regular basis. This includes whether the Medium household growth projection continues to provide a robust future infrastructural planning path over the longer-term or a more optimistic projection path is required.
4.9 In the latter respect, ESL's comments in its report prepared for the Council last year concerning the long-term economic growth outlook for the CHBD with the RWSS should be noted, as follows:
" The GDP impacts of the RWSS are predicated on significantly increased agricultural production in the District via a number of primary production sector land use changes"more intensive farming activities associated with irrigation such as grazing (sheep and beet finishing and dairy support), mixed use and cropping, vegetable production, dairying, pfy, fruit and vitroulture. The currently modelled land-use profile of the newly irrigated land is dairying 37%, other grazing/fruit-growing/viticulture 30% and mixed use/cropping/vegetables 33%. The ongoing annual operation of the Scheme should therefore encourage further growth in the 01stribt's pastoral farming, horncultural, farm servicing/rural supplies, agricultural advisory, real estate, financial services, community services and retaMng industries. The total direct and flow-on/multipffed employment impacts of the RWSS within the District are estimated at. ... 7200 FTEs (tiltime equivalents) at the time of the full operation of the RWSS. The latter include forming 760 FTEs, form support industries I00 FTEs and agricultural product processing 340 FTEs" mages 74175 of report).
4.10 In light of the above impacts, ESL recommended in its report last year that the Council use the SNZ 'High' or most optimistic population projection to guide its future long-term planning for the district in the event that the RWSS project is implemented. Given the SNZ 2006 Census based projections and update of these in 2012, the total district population in 2026 was projected at 14,850 and 16,370 in 2046. However, applying the recommended Medium population growth projection for the next LTP period, the District's 2026 population is projected at 13,260. Applying the High population growth projection for the 2026-2046 period, the District's population is now projected at 14,500 in year 2046.
4.11 Table 6 summarises the RWSS based household growth projections for CHBD under both the 2006 Census High or most optimistic population projection and a continuation of the historical fall in the household occupancy rate, and the 2013 Census Medium/Status Quo population growth projection for the 2013-2026 period and High population growth projection for 2026-2043 period (also coupled with the declining historical trend in average household occupancy). The first projection results in an overall 1,487 increase in total households over 2013-2046 whilst the second projection results in a 1,917 total household gain.
TABLE 6: 2006/20,3 CENSUS BASED MEDIUM/HIGH HOUSEHOLD GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CENTRAL HB DISTRICT WITH RWSS.
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Projected Medium To High Household Growth Year
2006 Census 2013 Census
20.3 5,333 5,333
20.5 5,455 5,421
2026 6,000 5,970
2031 6,160 6,408
2046 6,820 7,250
4.12 Whilst the next LTP period is not expected to see any major change from the existing broad locational profile of residential development in the district, the years following it could see evolving trends such as increased housing demand 'on farm' or in close proximity to farms being serviced by the RWSS, increased rural-residential or small rural town housing demand (particularly in the Tikokino CAU area) and increased housing demand within and around the main urban centres of Waipukurau and Waipawa.
4.13 On a CAU basis, the leading localities within the District for household growth over the long-term are, in order, Elsthorpe-Flemington, Waipukurau, Waipawa and Tikokino.
4.14 Again, it is recommended that the Council closely monitor the 'on the ground' housing development situation over time so that it is well positioned to respond both strategically and in terms of addressing specific planning, infrastructurel or servicing issues as they arise.
The Council has requested the inclusion in the report of updated information on age-group and ethnic group based population trends in the CHBD.
5.2 Table 7 below indicates the trend in the estimated population of the different age-groups for the CHBD since 2001, the trend in the median age of the population and the projected Status Quo/Medium or 'middle of the road' trend in the different population age-groups over the 2013-2046 period. The population of all age-groups in the 0-49 bracket fell overall during the 2001-2013 period. The 50-64 population rose by 908 or 41% whilst the 65+ population increased by 651 or 41%. The median age of the population increased from 36.7 to 43.1 years' Over 2015-2026, all age-group populations other than 65+ are projected to fall, with the population of the latter group projected to increase by a further 1,270 or 51%. Over 2026-2046, the 65+ age-group population is projected to increase by a further 810 or 22%. The overall population gain for this age-group during 2013-2046 is 2,320 or 103% or more than a doubling. The median age of the total District population is projected to rise from 43.1 years in year 2013 to 54.3 years in year 2046. With the RWSS scenario, the Median age of the CHBD population is projected to be around 52 years in year 2046. TABLE 7: CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT AGE GROUP POPULATION CHANGE 2001- 2046 STATUS Quo SCENARIO
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Age-Group Populations Median Census Year Total Age 0-14 I549 20-29 30-49 50-64 65+ (Yrs)
200, 3,214 972 1,293 3,896 2,226 1,599 13,200 36.7
2006 2,988 930 1,190 3,709 2,672 1,761 13,250 39.2
20.3 2,750 810 1,080 3,180 3,134 2,250 13,300 43.1
20.5 2,730 770 1,116 3,068 3,096 2,490 13,270 44.1
2026 2,530 696 892 2,714 2,668 3,760 13,260 487
2043 2,000 530 700 2,320 2,050 4,450 12,050 53.5
2046 1,905 500 735 2,250 1,875 4,570 , , ,835 54.3
5.3 Table 8 indicates both the historical growth in the different ethnic group populations in CHBD since 2001, and also the projected change in these populations over 2013 to 2046 assuming a continuation of the historical change profile (i. e. the Status Quo situation). The base total District population for the forecast period reflects the Medium growth scenario. Over the next LTP period, the European ethnic group population of the District is projected to fall by approximately 20%, with its share of the total population decreasing from 75% down to 66%. The Maori population is projected to fall by about 3%, with its share of the total population increasing slightly. It is emphasised that the figures in the table are estimates only and await confirmation or otherwise by updated Statistics NZ ethnic group population projections.
TABLE a CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION CHANGE 2001-2046 STATUS Quo SCENARIO
Ethnic Group Populations
Census Middle Total Year Pacific East/Sth European Maori Asian Other Peoples American/ African
2001 10,350 2,549 213 75 14 49 13,250
20.3 9,958 2,629 274 163 41 236 13,300
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd 2015 9,828 2,624 282 175 46 315 13,270
2026 9,563 2,594 323 241 89 450 13,260
2043 8,161 2,548 388 343 110 500 12,050
2046 7,820 2,540 400 360 1.5 600 I 1,835
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX I(A):
Projected CHBD Status Quo Population Growth 2013-2046 based on Statistics NZ 2006 Census Results
Year Estimated Distrid CAU Populations Population Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Po rigahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 13200 599 1926 2794 559 4025 262 3035 2002 13200 583 1933 2788 552 4036 259 3047 2003 13200 568 1941 2782 545 4047 256 3060 2004 13200 553 1948 2777 539 4058 253 3072 2005 13200 538 1955 2771 532 4069 250 3084 2006 13250 525 1970 2776 528 4096 248 3108 2007 13250 528 1981 2786 532 4068 243 311.3 2008 13300 533 2000 2806 539 4055 237 3130 2009 13350 538 201.9 2826 545 4042 232 3148 201.0 13500 547 2053 2868 556 4058 229 3189 201, . 13500 551 2065 2878 561 4029 223 3194 2012 13350 548 2054 2856 559 3956 21.4 3164 2013 13300 549 2058 2854 561 391.2 207 31.59 2014 13370 535 2139 2941 535 4011 209 3000 2015 13440 538 21.50 2957 538 4032 21.0 3016 2016 13500 540 2160 2970 540 4050 211 3029 2017 13500 540 2160 2970 540 4050 211 3029 2018 13500 540 2160 2970 540 4050 211 3029 201.9 13500 540 21.60 2970 540 4050 211 3029 2020 13500 540 21.60 2970 540 4050 211 3029 2021 13500 540 2160 2970 540 4050 211 3029 2022 13490 540 2158 2968 540 4047 210 3027 2023 13480 539 21.57 2966 540 4044 210 3024 2024 13470 539 21.55 2963 540 4041 210 3021 2025 13460 539 2154 2961 540 4038 21.0 301.8 2026 13450 540 2150 2960 540 4035 210 3015 2027 13410 536 21.46 2950 536 4023 209 3009 2028 13370 535 2139 2941 535 4011 209 3000 2029 13330 533 2133 2933 533 3999 208 2991 2030 13290 532 2126 2924 532 3987 207 2982 2031 13250 530 2120 2915 530 3975 207 2973 2032 13230 529 2117 2911 529 3969 206 2969 2033 13210 528 2114 2906 528 3963 206 2964 2034 13190 528 211.0 2902 528 3957 206 2960 2035 13/70 527 21.07 2897 527 3951 205 2955 2036 13150 526 2104 2893 526 3945 205 2951 2037 131.40 526 2102 2891 526 3942 205 2949 2038 13130 525 2101 2889 525 3939 205 2946 039 131.20 525 2099 2886 525 3936 205 2944 2040 13/10 524 2098 2884 524 3933 205 2942 2041 131.00 524 2096 2882 524 3930 204 2940 2042 13080 523 2093 2878 523 3924 204 2935 2043 13060 522 2090 2873 522 3918 204 2931 2044 13040 522 2086 2869 522 3912 203 2926 2045 13020 521 2083 2864 521 3906 203 2922 2046 23000 520 2080 2860 520 3900 200 2920
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay20, .5. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX I(B):
Projected CHBD Status Quo Household Growth 20.3-2046 based on Statistics NZ 2006 Census Results
Year Estimated Distrid CAU Households Households Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porengahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 4797 204 756 923 182 1543 99 1090 2002 4834 202 760 932 1.84 1556 1.00 1099 2003 4870 200 764 941 186 1568 101 1109 2004 4906 199 768 951 1.88 1580 102 11.18 2005 4942 197 772 960 1.90 1592 103 13.27 2006 4998 1.96 779 973 193 1611 104 1141 2007 5042 1.98 787 985 3.99 1616 102 1154 2008 5106 201 799 1002 206 1627 100 1172 2009 5170 203 810 1018 21.2 1638 98 1190 201.0 5274 208 828 1043 221 1662 97 1217 201, . 5320 209 836 1056 227 1667 94 1230 2012 5307 209 835 1057 230 1654 91 1230 2013 5333 210 841 1067 235 1653 88 1239 2014 5395 215 862 1078 237 1671 88 1242 2015 5457 21.8 870 1089 240 1686 89 L245 2016 5520 221 883 1104 243 1711 89 1269 201.7 5543 222 887 1109 244 17/8 90 1274 2018 5566 223 891 1,113 245 1725 90 1279 201.9 5589 224 894 1,118 246 1733 90 1285 2020 5612 224 898 1/22 247 1740 91 1290 2021 5635 225 902 1/27 248 1747 91 1295 2022 5658 226 905 1132 249 1754 92 1300 2023 5681 227 909 1136 250 1761 93 1305 2024 5704 228 913 1,141 251 1768 93 131.0 2025 5727 229 916 1145 252 1775 94 131.5 2026 5750 230 920 11.50 255 1785 95 1315 2027 5769 231 923 11.54 254 1788 96 1323 2028 5788 232 926 11.58 255 1794 97 1327 2029 5807 232 929 1161 256 3800 98 1331 2030 5826 233 932 11.65 256 3806 98 1335 2031 5845 234 935 11.69 257 181.2 1.00 1338 2032 5860 234 938 11.72 258 181.7 100 1341 2033 5875 235 940 11.75 259 1821 1.01 1345 2034 5890 236 942 11.78 259 1826 1.01 1348 2035 5905 236 945 1181 260 1831 102 1351 2036 5920 237 947 11.84 260 1835 102 1354 2037 5931 237 949 11.86 261 1839 1.03 1356 2038 5942 238 951 11.88 261 1842 1.03 1359 2039 5953 238 952 11.91 262 1845 1.03 1361 2040 5964 239 954 11.93 262 1849 104 1363 2041. 5975 239 956 1195 263 1852 104 1366 2042 5982 239 957 1196 263 1854 104 1367 2043 5989 240 958 1198 264 1857 1.05 1369 2044 5996 240 959 1199 264 1859 105 1370 2045 6003 240 960 1200 264 1860 105 1373 2046 6010 240 960 1200 265 1865 1.05 1375
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 4(A):
Projected CHBD Status Quo Population Growth 20.3-2046 based on Statistics NZ 20.3 Census Results
ar Estimated District CAU Population Population Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porengahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 13200 599 1926 2794 559 4025 262 3035 2002 13200 583 1933 2788 552 4036 259 3047 2003 13200 568 1941 2782 545 4047 256 3060 2004 13200 553 1948 2777 539 4058 253 3072 2005 13200 538 1955 2771 532 4069 250 3084 2006 13250 525 1970 2776 528 4096 248 31.08 2007 13250 528 1981 2786 532 4068 243 31.13 2008 13300 533 2000 2806 539 4055 237 31.30
2009 13350 538 201.9 2826 545 4042 232 3148 2010 13500 547 2053 2868 556 4058 229 3189 2011 13500 551 2065 2878 561 4029 223 3194 2012 13350 548 2054 2856 559 3956 214 31.64 201.3 13300 549 2058 2854 561 391.2 207 3159 2014 13295 549 2057 2853 561 3910 207 3158 2015 13292 549 2056 2853 561 3909 207 3157
2016 13289 548 2056 2852 561 3908 207 3156 2017 13 86 548 2056 2851 561 3907 207 3155 2018 13283 548 2055 2851 561 3907 207 3155 201.9 13280 548 2055 2850 561 3906 207 3154 2020 13277 548 2054 2850 561 3905 207 3153 2021 13274 548 2054 2849 560 3904 207 3153 2022 13271 548 2053 2848 560 3903 207 3152 2023 13268 548 2053 2848 560 3902 207 31.51 2024 13265 547 2052 2847 560 3901 206 31.50 2025 13262 547 2052 2846 560 3900 206 3150 2026 13260 545 2050 2845 560 3900 205 3155 2027 13190 542 2039 2830 557 3879 204 3139 2028 13120 539 2028 2815 554 3859 203 3122 2029 13050 536 2018 2800 551 3838 202 3105 2030 12980 533 2007 2785 548 381.7 201 3089 2031 12910 531 1996 2770 545 3797 200 3072 2032 12840 528 1985 2755 542 3776 199 3055 2033 12770 525 1974 2740 539 3756 197 3039 2034 12700 522 1963 2725 536 3735 196 3022
2035 12630 519 1953 271.0 533 3715 195 3005 2036 12560 516 1942 2695 530 3694 194 2989 2037 12490 513 1931 2680 527 3673 193 2972 2038 12420 51.0 1920 2665 524 3653 192 2955 2039 12350 508 1909 2650 521 3632 191 2939 2040 12280 505 1898 2635 51.8 3612 190 2922 2041 12210 502 1888 2620 51.5 3591 189 2906 2042 12140 499 1877 2605 51.3 3570 188 2889 2043 12050 495 1863 2585 509 3544 186 2867 2044 11950 491 1847 2564 504 3515 185 2844 2045 1,850 487 1832 2542 500 3485 183 2820 2046 1,750 485 1820 2520 495 3455 185 2790
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay20, .5. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 4(B):
Projected CHBD Status Quo Household Growth 2013-2046 based on Statistics New Zealand 2013 Census Results
Year Estimated District CAU Households Households Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porengahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 4797 204 756 923 1.82 1543 99 1090 2002 4834 202 760 932 1.84 1556 1.00 1099 2003 4870 200 764 941 186 1568 101 1109 2004 4906 1.99 768 951 188 1580 1.02 1118
2005 4942 197 772 960 190 1592 103 1127 2006 4998 196 779 973 193 1611 104 11.41 2007 5042 1.98 787 985 199 1616 102 1154 2008 5106 201 799 1002 206 1627 100 1172 2009 5170 203 81.0 1018 212 1638 98 1190 201.0 5274 208 828 1043 221 1662 97 12/7
2011 5320 209 836 1056 227 1667 94 1230 2012 5307 209 835 1057 230 1654 91 1,230 2013 5333 210 841 1067 235 1653 88 1239 2014 5376 21.2 847 1075 237 1666 89 1249 2015 5421 214 855 1084 239 1680 89 1259 201.6 5466 21.5 862 1093 241 1695 90 1270 2017 5513 217 869 11.03 243 1709 91 1281 201.8 5560 219 876 11.12 245 1724 92 1292 2019 5608 221 884 1122 247 1738 92 1303 2020 5657 223 892 1131 250 1754 93 1314 2021 5707 225 900 1,141 252 1769 94 1326
2022 5757 227 908 1151 254 1785 95 1338 2023 5809 229 916 1162 256 1801 96 1350 2024 5861 231 924 1172 259 1817 97 1362 2025 5915 233 932 11.83 261 1834 97 1374 2026 5970 235 940 1195 265 1851 1.00 1384
2027 5995 236 944 1200 266 1858 1.00 1390 2028 6021 237 948 1205 267 1866 1.01 1396 2029 6047 238 952 1210 268 1875 101 1402 2030 6074 239 956 1216 270 1883 102 1408 2031 61.01 240 961 1221 271 1891 102 14/5 2032 61.29 241 965 1227 272 1900 103 1341 2033 61.57 242 969 1232 273 1909 103 1345 2034 6186 243 974 1238 275 191.8 104 1434 2035 6215 245 979 1244 276 1927 104 1441
2036 6245 246 983 1250 277 1936 105 1448
2037 6276 247 988 1256 279 1946 105 1455 2038 6307 248 993 1263 280 1955 1.06 1463 2039 6339 250 998 1269 281 1965 1.06 1470 2040 6372 251 1003 1276 283 1975 1.07 1478 2041 6406 252 1009 1282 284 1986 1.07 1485 2042 6440 253 1014 1289 286 1996 1.08 1493
2043 6464 254 101.8 1294 287 2004 108 1499
2044 6484 255 1021 1298 288 2010 109 1503 2045 6503 256 1024 1302 289 201.6 109 1508 2046 6524 260 1025 1305 290 2020 11.0 15/4
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 5(A):
Projected CHBD RWSS Population Growth 2013-2046 based on Statistics NZ 2006 Census Results
Year Estimated District CAU Populations Population Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porengahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 200, . 13200 599 1926 2794 559 4025 262 3035 2002 13200 583 1933 2788 552 4036 259 3047 2003 13200 568 1941 2782 545 4047 256 3060 2004 13200 553 1948 2777 539 4058 253 3072 2005 13200 538 1955 2771 532 4069 250 3084 2006 13250 525 1970 2776 528 4096 248 3108 2007 13250 528 1981 2786 532 4068 243 3113 2008 13300 533 2000 2806 539 4055 237 3130 2009 13350 538 2019 2826 545 4042 232 3148 2010 13500 547 2053 2868 556 4058 229 3189
2011 13500 551 2065 2878 561 4029 223 3194 2012 13350 548 2054 2856 559 3956 214 3164 2013 13300 549 2058 2854 561 3912 207 3159 2014 13890 560 2150 2864 580 4200 220 3316 2015 13970 560 2172 2874 585 421.6 223 3339 201.6 14050 560 2194 2884 590 4232 226 3363 201.7 141.40 561 2216 2894 596 4248 229 3396 2018 14230 561 2238 2904 601 4264 232 3429 20.9 14320 562 2260 2914 607 4280 233 3464 2020 14410 562 2282 2924 612 4300 235 3494 , 2021 14500 5651 2294 2927 616 4330 237 3530 2022 14570 5681 2306 2930 620 4360 239 3546 , 2023 14640 571.1 2318 2933 624 4390 241 3562 2024 14710 5741 2330 2936 628 4420 243 3578 2025 14780 577 2342 2939 632 4450 245 3594 2026 14850 580 2355 2940 635 4480 245 3615 2027 14910 5831 2367 2943 639 4510 247 3621 2028 14970 5861 2379 2946 643 4540 249 3627 2029 15030 5891 2391 2949 647 4570 251 3633 2030 15090 5921 2403 2952 651 4600 253 3639 2031 15150 5951 241.5 2955 655 4630 255 3645 , 2032 15230 5981 2427 2958 659 4660 257 3671 2033 15310 6011 2439 2961 663 4690 259 3697 2034 15390 6041 2451 2964 667 4720 261 3723 , 2035 15470 6071 2463 2967 671 4750 263 3749 2 36 15550 61.01 2475 2970 675 4780 265 3775 2037 15636 6131 2487 2973 679 481.0 267 3807 , 2038 15722 61.6 2499 2976 683 4840 269 3839 , 2039 15808 61.91 251.1 2979 687 4870 271 3871 2040 15894 6221 2523 2982 691 4900 273 3903 2041 15980 6251 2535 2985 695 4930 275 3935 2042 16058 6281 2547 2988 699 4960 277 3959 2043 16136 631.1 2559 2991 703 4990 279 3983 , 2044 16214 6341 2571 2994 707 5020 281 4007 2045 16292 637 2583 2997 711 5050 283 4031 2046 16370 640 2585 3000 720 5075 285 4065
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 5(B):
Projected CHBD RWSS Household Growth 2013-2046 based on Statistics NZ 2006 Census Results
Year Estimated District CAU Households Households Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porangahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 4797 204 756 923 1.82 1543 99 1090 2002 4834 202 760 932 1.84 1556 100 1099 2003 4870 200 764 941 1.86 1568 101 1109 2004 4906 1.99 768 951 1.88 1580 102 1118 2005 4942 1.97 772 960 190 1592 103 11.27 2006 4998 196 779 973 193 161.1 104 11.41
2007 5042 198 787 985 199 161.6 102 1154 2008 51.06 201 799 1002 206 1627 100 11.72 2009 5170 203 810 1018 21.2 1638 98 1190 2010 5274 208 828 1043 221 1662 97 1217
2011 5320 209 836 1056 227 1667 94 1,230 2012 5307 209 835 1057 230 1654 91 1230 201.3 5333 210 841 1067 235 1653 88 1239 201.4 5394 210 852 1079 237 1672 88 1255 2015 5455 213 862 1091 240 1691 88 1270 2016 5515 215 871 1104 243 171.0 89 1283 2017 5573 21.7 881 1109 245 1728 90 1304 2018 5631 220 890 1113 248 1746 91 1324 201.9 5689 222 899 11.18 250 1764 92 1345 2020 5747 224 908 1/22 253 1782 93 1365 2021 5805 226 917 1127 255 1800 94 1385 2022 5844 228 923 1132 257 18/2 95 1397 2023 5883 229 930 1136 259 1824 96 1409 2024 5922 231 936 1141 261 1836 97 1421 2025 5961 232 942 1145 262 1848 98 1433 2026 6000 235 950 1150 265 1860 100 1440 2027 6039 236 954 1154 266 1872 101 1457 2028 6078 237 960 1158 267 1884 102 1469 2029 611.7 239 966 1161 269 1896 1.03 1482
2030 61.56 240 973 11.65 271 1908 1.04 1495 2031 6160 240 973 11.69 271 191.0 105 1492 2032 6203 242 980 11.72 273 1923 106 1507
2033 6246 244 987 11.75 275 1936 107 1522 2034 6289 245 994 1,178 277 1950 108 1538 2035 6332 247 1000 1181 279 1963 109 1553 2036 6375 249 1007 1184 281 1976 11.0 1568
2037 6421 250 1015 1186 283 1991 11.1 1586 2038 6467 252 1022 1188 285 2005 112 1603 2039 6513 254 1029 1191 287 2019 113 1621
2040 6559 256 1036 1193 289 2033 114 1638 2041 6605 258 1044 1195 291 2048 1.15 1656 2042 6648 259 1050 1196 293 2061 11.6 1673 2043 6691 261 1057 11.98 294 2074 11.7 1689 2044 6734 263 1064 1199 296 2088 11.8 1706 2045 6777 264 1071 1200 298 2101 119 1724 2046 6820 265 1080 1200 300 2115 120 1740
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 6(A):
Projected CHBD RWSS Population Growth 20.3-2046 based on Statistics NZ 20.3 Census Results
Year Estimated District CAU Populations Population Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Po rigahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001 13200 599 1926 2794 559 4025 262 3035 2002 13200 583 1933 2788 552 4036 259 3047 2003 13200 568 1941 2782 545 4047 256 3060 2004 13200 553 1948 2777 539 4058 253 3072 2005 13200 538 1955 2771 532 4069 250 3084 2006 13250 525 1970 2776 528 4096 248 3108 2007 13250 528 1981 2786 532 4068 243 3113 2008 13300 533 2000 2806 539 4055 237 3130 2009 13350 538 2019 2826 545 4042 232 31.48 2010 13500 547 2053 2868 556 4058 229 31.89 201.1 13500 551 2065 2878 561 4029 223 31.94 2012 13350 548 2054 2856 559 3956 214 3164 2013 13300 549 2058 2854 561 391.2 207 31.59 2014 13295 549 2057 2853 561 391.0 207 3158 2015 13292 549 2056 2853 561 3909 207 3157 2016 13289 548 2056 2852 561 3908 207 3156 201.7 13286 548 2056 2851 561 3907 207 3155 201.8 13283 548 2055 2851 561 3907 207 3155 2019 13280 548 2055 2850 561 3906 207 3154 2020 13277 548 2054 2850 561 3905 207 3153 2021 13274 548 2054 2849 560 3904 207 31.53 2022 13271 548 2053 2848 560 3903 207 3152 2023 13268 548 2053 2848 560 3902 207 3151 2024 13265 547 2052 2847 560 3901 206 3150 2025 1,3262 547 2052 2846 560 3900 206 31.50 2026 13260 545 2050 2845 560 3900 205 31.55 2027 13320 546 2062 2850 564 3930 208 31.60 2028 13380 547 2074 2855 568 3960 211 31.65 2029 13440 548 2086 2860 572 3990 214 31.70 2030 13500 549 2098 2865 576 4020 21.7 31.75 2031 13560 550 211.0 2870 580 4050 220 31.80 2032 13620 551 2122 2875 584 4080 223 3185 2033 13680 552 2134 2880 588 41.10 226 31.90 2034 13740 553 2146 2885 592 41.40 229 31.95 2035 13800 554 2158 2890 596 41.70 232 3200 2036 13860 555 21.70 2895 600 4200 235 3205 2037 13920 556 21.82 2900 604 4230 238 3210 2038 13980 558 2194 2905 608 4260 241 3214 2039 14040 558 2206 291.0 612 4290 244 3220 2040 141.00 558 2218 2915 616 4320 247 3226 2041 14.60 558 2230 2920 620 4350 249 3233 2042 14220 558 2242 2925 624 4380 252 3239 2043 14300 558 2251 2925 624 4390 252 3300
2044 14365 561 2261 2938 627 441.0 253 331.5 2045 14430 563 2271 2952 630 4430 254 3330 2046 14500 565 2280 2965 635 4470 255 3330
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 6(B):Projected CHBD RWSS Household Growth 20.3-2046 based on Statistics NZ 20.3 Census Results
Year Estimated District CAU Households Households Takapau Waipawa Tikokino Otane Waipukurau Porangahau Elsthorpe-Flemington 2001. 4797 204 756 923 182 1543 99 1090 2002 4834 202 760 932 1.84 1556 100 1099 2003 4870 200 764 941 186 1568 1.01 1109
2004 4906 1.99 768 951 188 1580 1.02 111.8 2005 4942 197 772 960 190 1592 103 1127 2006 4998 196 779 973 193 161.1 104 1141
2007 5042 198 787 985 199 161.6 102 11.54 2008 51.06 201 799 1002 206 1627 100 11.72 2009 5170 203 810 1018 212 1638 98 1190 2010 5274 208 828 1043 221 1662 97 1217 2011 5320 209 836 1056 227 1667 94 1230 2012 5307 209 835 1057 230 1654 91 1230 2013 5333 210 841 1067 235 1653 88 1239 2014 5376 212 847 1075 237 1666 89 1249 2015 5421 214 855 1084 239 1680 89 1259 2016 5466 21.5 862 1093 241 1695 90 1270 2017 551.3 217 869 11.03 243 1709 91 1281
2018 5560 21.9 876 1112 245 1724 92 1292 201.9 5608 221 884 11.22 247 1738 92 1303 2020 5657 223 892 11.31 250 1754 93 13/4 2021 5707 225 900 1141 252 1769 94 1326 2022 5757 227 908 1151 254 1785 95 1338 2023 5809 229 916 1162 256 1801 96 1350 2024 5861 231 924 1172 259 1817 97 1362 2025 5915 233 932 11.83 261 1834 97 1374 2026 5970 235 940 1195 265 1851 100 1384 2027 6054 237 950 1199 268 1871 1.01 1429 2028 61.40 239 960 1203 271 1891 1.02 1474
2029 6228 241 970 1207 274 1911 103 1522 2030 6317 243 980 121.1 277 1931 104 1571 2031 6408 245 990 121.5 280 1951 1.05 1622 2032 6501 247 1000 1219 283 1971 106 1675 2033 6596 249 1010 1223 286 1991 107 1730 2034 6692 251 1020 1227 289 201.1 108 1787 2035 6791 253 1030 1231 292 2031 109 1845 2036 6892 255 1040 1235 295 2051 110 1906 2037 6960 257 1050 1,239 298 2071 11.1 1934 2038 6990 259 1060 1243 301 2091 11.2 1924
2039 7020 261 1070 1247 304 2111 11.3 19/4 2040 7050 263 1080 1251 307 21.31 11.4 1904 2041 7080 265 1090 1255 31.0 21.51 11.5 1894 2042 711.0 267 1100 1259 31.3 21.71 1.16 1884 2043 7150 269 1110 1263 31.6 2191 117 1884 2044 7182 271 1/20 1267 319 2211 118 1876 2045 721.5 273 1130 1271 31.9 2231 119 1872
2046 7250 280 1085 1340 320 2250 130 1845
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd <0 U- I~ NOH m -- * -Nh - - ^ -
N g 12
F1 ^
::0000 MOOOQ--0000 000000QoooooooQOOOOOOOOOQ-O ^
^ o ^0000 -0000 00000000Q000000-0000 000QOOOOOOQON Q N I^ co Q = -00.10 ,, 100.0 0-0000 000000-0000 000-0000 00000~-61 co ^ In 51 = ON O-CUI QOOOOOOOOOOOOOOQOQOOOOOQ-00.00 00000N- ^ co ^ Q ^ 0000 HOOOHQ-0,000 0000QOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOHO co Z ^ co 0000 mOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOQ0000.0000 0HO-Neo ^ = co co = o hoc OQ-0000 00-0-~0000 0000000000H~0000 -000 NN Q ^ co In 16 000 Nc00 0000 0000000000HOoooHOH00.00.00 HOOHrr, CD N ,, Q o P inFloeQ c00 0000 .GONG OOOOOOOOOONOQOOOOOOOOOOON"" = co co ^ Hoc N--0000 -0--0000 0000N00-00 -0.1 N0-00.00 N"~ ^ = ,, . < moo NOHOOOHQ~-00,000 000HOOOOOOONOOOOOOOOQHO- o ^ g o = . " ^ 'NNo. OOOMOOOOOOOOOHOQOOOOOOOOOOOOON0-0000 Office OOOOOOOHOQOOOOOOoooooOON0-0000 000N00000N00 co o8 UN Q " co > = CG in 0,000 0mOOOQOOONOOOOOQOQOooo-COCOON OOOOOOONO. co ^ co " a, Z ^ ,, = = EC ^ PP PPP PPPPPPP. tU ^ ai P PP Q'co pal e . EU:=.,..= .. ^ ^1318 ^!^ in = 0.6 ,BE"","'"'" ' co IEEE=^ " 81'^^c in in ~ in in in " I, " " in " in to - o ' S ' P '^I C P " U in ID U U U U ~ co 41~~~, U"ale , q19 ' - o''00' 5 ' o'00 ^ 5 ,: > ^ > ^ ^ I^ ^ ^ I^ I^ I^ 19 ^ a a= rig " " I- u " in co , ^ " " = a. " " g a. or o. " a EC ^ co ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ------F1----- " coin " " " rococo co " " " rococo rococo"""rococo" co"""rocococo""co"rocococo ESE """"""" =^>=>====> >==>>>>^>>=>>>^=
N ~ >< = ^ = Q " = ^ E Z < = " Ll " = = n. " a = , n. " < U ^ ="
U F. . N ^ ^ ^I
N " ~ 12 ...... , Ia
^OOOQOOOOQ00006610 0000--
No. 000,000 000000.0000 0'- e
-0000 HNOQQOOOQHOQOOO-Gun ., I^
^000.0 0000000QOOOOOH-ON ^
00.00 00Q0-0000 00QOOOO-
COCOON OOOOONOOOOO--ON co N ^ ~
~ Floe O H m O O O . OF, Floe O O O H , Q - ^
~ ^ o V,
0000 NOOQ-0000 *Floe OON-- .^ E Q = Q I I I, , mooOQONOOO-QinHN-00.000Q
0000 [email protected] -0000 HOOQOco
Moo OQQ-0000 00QOOOOOOOO-
g = " "NGO OOOHOOOOOQOOOQOQO-ON
UN " co =
",~0000 HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON
= " Z
I,
., 6.6~~
^ 0 015-is ,,~ aia, ._ g! 0 0-5^ ^^^,,,
ae U ^ 5115 ^ I;; 13 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ I^ I^ iE IE ^ IE IE IE JP IE o ^ un F1 Q N ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ > I, " co " rococo co co co co " rococo co co " co " " co " = > =^.=>>^>^^>=^^^>^>^>^>>> co " ~ ,, . ~ a; = E = " 5 ^ " o " I, . < ~ " 3 q9 = I. 12 = " a = I, = " a U < . U ^ U = un co N ="
91- mmN F1 H ,N * Ia Pi - H N F1 F1 F1 F1 H in F1 co F1 N . N F1 8 N
, " 19 0.00 H H Q N
o00,000,000 000N00--000. < HOOFioooooooomoOQ0000.000.0 0000o N ., o N
000.1 0N0.00,000 N. 000.0 000000Nooo. .DOM 00000000. ,0000 000o N . N
00,000 0HHOHON. HGO 0-00.00 00. o0.00 000mOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooO in e N
o 0.0 "rod OmO. inc ~HH-00.0 HONoo. No. o00.0 .-o0.00 000000000000o " N o N
0000 HMOH. 0,000 N. 0,000 00000---o00.0 0N000-000.0 0000NOOOo ,~
N
co CON *0--No. *0.1 ~~000.0 H, .o, 000 00000.0.1 H00000.000.0 0NooOO In N N b ~ ~ ," = I~ 00.10 "inc NHO"DNC HHOOOOHOHoo. No. o000 00LDQ. 00.0 -. 00.00 0. o. 0 co *S N a ^ o Vj .!e 00. < "*00,100 00MOO. .. inc H0-o00,000 0. ..."o0.00 -00.00 000000o co N ^ N Q , = Q , Lu in Odin -ON 0.00.00 000NONOON-ON ooooo. .-moo oOOOOOOOON0~o00.0 O N N
00.10 MO. .. ON H00"000,000 0000moOOO-COOLDH00.00.00 0. .o0,000 N N
in o0.1 ,N-DNC onoOOHH-0,000 Honoooooocooooon. .. 000.0 .000,000 ID
F1 " ~ = " 0000 -0.1 NOOOOHOOOO. MOOD -o. 10 N. -. o0.00 mN000-. 00.00 000. o. 0 e; UN " co =
"H Coin -NOC 0.0.10 ,-~. 00,000 0H0-o0,000 ... HFC 0000000.000.0 0. o ;^
a " Z
in = . " . " " . = = . ." b = " O= in in in . o . LO " o b " = for " " in ,, EQ = o " ,^ ^^ . .. re g" " DEC E ." , in . ,o co \= ^a " = "a ." T in in, ~" N~ . a< ^ e!^ U Z" Tin o >in ^S in" ^ coZ ." a XI- o ^ un F1 "- Q N -. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ > ' in in F1 F1 F1 F1 F1 - F1 H _ ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 un in in In in in in in in in In In in in un in in in in in un in in in in in in In in In in ^ rococo""""""rococo""rococo""rococo""""cococococo"rocococo"co""""""""""""rocococo > == >>>>>^>>>>>>>>^>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>^>>>>>^>>>>>>>z>>> an ai = ~ o in tb . " ~ = un = E = E ~ " in ^ " L L " o U . < " a ~ in . L9 = o ^ = " = " = ~ . " P " < . U " U = =.
U> ^ 13 ,I
N " " 19 00 0000 e
1,000 000N000000.0000 ~00.00 0000HooooHooooOOOOOOOOOOooooooOOm . N
^0000 0,00.00 000000000~0000 0000000000000000000000000000000N Q N
-00,000 0000,000,000 0000000000000000000000QQ0-@0N ~00.00 000~ R
00.00 0000NNOOOOOOOOOOOOQ000000000000, o000 00000QOOoooooooO" R
00,000 00-HOOQOOOOOH000000000-o00 -0000 0000000NOOOooOOOOOOco
N
00.00 HHNOOHNOHOOQ0-0000 -HGO ooooooOOOOOQOOHOON000-00.00 00" ^ ~
boo -o00. < NHOH", 0000 0000000, o00.0 0000000NooooOOOOOOOooooooooN is ^ o In CONGO NNHHHHOOOOOOOHOHOOOOHooHOOOOOOOOOOHOHOHOOOOOOOOOOOOh'~
= U 000.0 NOOOHOM-NH000000.0000 000NOOOHOOOOOOOOOOH0000-o. 00 0HU
00,000 m-He --0000 00nOOQQOooHOH000000-o000 -0000 00000000000G
moo oooooooooooooooooooOoooooooH00000000000-o000 0000000000N
, " = " ENQ OOOOOm-HD -No. 0000 0000000000000000-o000 0000-0000 0HooooooH
" " = "-GONG 0-0,000 000000000000000000000000~0-o0,000,000 H-o000 000
3 , Z
= " = ." O= LQ , a o " . \= C in " ae . U o . un ., o O = - - , - - - F1 H H - F1 F1 N N N N N N N N N N in in I^ ;R * ;g in !; in '' ~ ' in un " ^ un In ^ SI in Ig ' ' F1 N > " E ^E^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^""coin corn " > co o ~ I, " . = a; = E , g "^ < o " = ^e = o0 " " = o =in " " U I= ae = ="
91- un in- * - N -N e
. -
I-
^^ ^^...... - a N
OCN ONOOOOOOOOOOQOOOOOO
^~000,000 QQOOOOOOO-Co- ^ I^
-000--000.0NN-000000Q-^
Q O O F1 0 - 0 Q O Q F1 Q ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18
000.1 - 0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q O O M
N
CONGNOOQ000.000000000co "I" ^ ~ ^ = FFI N m - hoc O O O O O O O O Q j - O O O~ -~^ ,. ^ ^ H N in - h O Q 0 000 0 00001 - ,^ O-Ni-*0-000NMHOOOO-CONM .:e E N Q = ,
unHHOONHOOHOONOOOOOOOOQ*
NON 0 * 000.1 0 N M 0 0 0 - 0000 - F1
MOOD OOOOOOONNOOOOOOOOON
EN "
" 'NOOOOQOOOOONNOOOOOOOOQ o8 UN " co =
0,000.000.00@, 00,00000-,
= " Z
= " = 1.0 ~ a' o'8 ' a!, "ua^cou , . a; co ,, , '~= ' "-, A I'D=in u- X U ^Si^^^^ o ^ in - 01 F1 inh e ^^^^^^ HNm^," '~co N ~ , N N N ;^ NNN~NN PIFl - - - F1 H - > un un unin un un un un uninin unin un I, PIPI H H , ~ - - ~ F1 - - F1 H " cocococo rococococn co rocococococococo = ESE ^>, := > ^ = > = ^=^^>>^z ^ " ql a ~ I. = . ~ ~ .a in = us E = = " ^ a ^;; " ,a o < "= . " OGO L, = " I- = I- , I- " = " = I. = I, =" ~ a " . U o U, U- a^ = APPENDIX 3(A):
ap Of ^er. Qt. ,Dw lings Consented In Waipukurau Between 20 I And 2014 By Meshblock
\
\ ... ^ \ \ I \ \ \ , \ \ I I I .--~'I~~-~- - \ ^ Belgrove Drive anal ^ . & kingdom Group \
C
~~
~~ . I r \t \,.? ~\ 21 17 , . I Mt Herbert Rd " '" I;"2 4 (JG W1180n Drive Dovebpment) \~<./ . Mangatarata R I Development I I Legend I I MeshUod, s I econt to 1110 Toni J Eiji::. Rural M"libbcl, \ . \ of Rus' and Urban \- I Oak Haturnn I ,,^' ''"""'
15 New Droning a by MeshBlod,
I Larger box 8120 ladlede8 higlier num For 0001/11^, Number abng .Ide box , indicaba acbial volume of
, new Orelling. congenial ~< I Roads Sbb HID, nay 2 - - Scabd
Planning Zone
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd APPENDIX 3(B):
Map Of The Number Of Dwellings Consented 6 In Waipawa/Otane Between 2001 And 2014 I\=:<./, \ By Meshblock 12 an = I I Rodifu1 & 000 Stree ~'t
I \ ,. I I \ \
17 \
,. unite RqArea) \ I ,, \ I' \ I I' \ I I ~~ I I ~*,,
19 L;^e, rid Abbot Ave area Meetiblode (Home, ^ Rd I. ^ Rural Its^ poem b, 10 Ton \. & Racecourse Rd) 11^I :a", had:;:, '' and
I Non Dwel"riga by MeshBbd, 14 I I I C. Larger box BIZe Indicab, . I hig, rer number of Drolllre, . I~\ I\, I I~ 12 Number along Bide box \^ ladletsB cotuai volume at I--~~{...., ~~<' I new mmlllng. on"rited , ., ',, 14I^ ,,I. 1 Roads - - - - Slab Hlghaay 2 I ~ ' ~ ' ~ S, .I'd O^. - - ~ - - Umealed 12 Planning Zone . (Ireland Rd!Poursrere Rd Devabpmerit)
UrbanGrowthStrategyMay20, .5. docx Economic Solutions Ltd