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Future R'si. .Nti. Development in Cen Ral HB D'strict

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Future R'si. .Nti. Development in Cen Ral HB D'strict Future R'Si. .nti. Development in Cen ral HB D'strict April20Z5 Report Prepared by Sean Be vin, Consulting Economic Analyst Economic Solutions Ltd, Napier Erno": sean bevin econom CSolut ons co nz Executive Summary In July 2014, Economic Solutions Ltd (ESL) prepared a report for the Council concerning the long-term demographic and economic growth outlook for the Central Hawkes Bay District, covering the period 2014-2046. ESL has subsequently been requested by the Council to provide additional analysis supplementing the contents of the above report, concerning the anticipated location within the district and associated amount of new residential housing development during the long-term projection period. The analysis in the report again relates to the two projection scenarios used in last year's report, namely the 'Status Quo' scenario reflecting a continuation of underlying historical demographic growth patterns in the district and the 'RWSS' scenario incorporating the potential demographic impacts over the projection period of the major Ruataniwha Water Storage Scheme. As with last year's report, Statistics NZ's Medium or 'middle of the road' population projection has been used as the basis for preparing the Status Quo household growth projection. The High or most optimistic population projection of SNZ has been used for preparing the 'with RWSS' household projection beyond year 2026. Both projection scenarios also continue the historical trend of falling household occupancy, over the 2013-2046 period. The projection period covered by the analysis comprises two parts, specifically the next Long Term Plan interval 20/5/16 to 2025/26 and the following 20-yearinterval. In the latter regard, it is noted that this follow-up report updates last year's population and household growth projections (which were based on the 2006 Census results) taking into account the latest Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) sub-national population projections based on 2013 Census results. It is also noted that as SNZ's latest population projections only cover the period out to Year 2043, ESL's population and household growth projections contained in this supplementary report have been extrapolated out to 2046. Table A below summarises the latest household growth projections for the Central Hawkes Bay District for the 2013-2046 period, for both the Status Quo and RWSS scenarios. The figures in the table indicate that under the Status Quo projection scenario, the total number of households in the District increases by 549 or 10% over 2015-2026 and by 554 or 9.3% over 2026-2046. With the RWSS, the total number of households in the District also increases by 549 or logy. over 2015-2026 (the same as for the Status Quo scenario) but by 1,280 or 21% over 2026-2046. The RWSS results in a total of 7,250 households in the District by year 2046, 726 or 11% more households than the Status Quo projection situation. TABLE A: 2013 CENSUS BASED STATUS Quo AND RWSS HOUSEHOLD GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR CHBD 2013-2046 Projected Households Year Status Quo RWSS 20.3 Base Actuals 5,333 5,333 20.5 5,421 5,421 2026 5,970 5,970 2046 6,524 7,250 Assuming a continuation over the 2013-2026 projection period of the overall historical locational profile of new residential development in the District, the leading broad residential growth localities for the period are expected to be the Waipukurau, Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Tikokino and Waipawa Census Area Units (CAUs), in this order. In addition, the general historical profile of housing growth in the district (whereby 55% of total new dwellings have been located adjacent to, on the fringe of or within the main urban zones, 30% have been rural residential including rural townships and lifestyle housing, and the balance coastal developments) is also assumed for the period under the Status Quo projection scenario. Over the 2026-2045 period, the additional household growth in the District is also concentrated in the Waipukurau, Elsthorpe-Flemington, Tikokino and Waipawa CAU areas, in this order. If the RWSS proceeds, the report is of the view that given the current timing of the construction period for the project and the initial years of its evolving operation, the Scheme is unlikely to have a significant impact on new housing demand in the district over the next LTP period (201 5-2026). It is anticipated that housing requirements associated with the construction of the Scheme will be met largely from existing available accommodation supply in the District such as rental housing and visitor/community accommodation, as well as possibly the construction of temporary accommodation for the construction workforce. Consequently, the report considers that the Status Quo/Medium household growth projection scenario should also suffice for the next LTP period involving the construction and initial operation of the RWSS. However, the Council should closely monitor new housing growth in the District during the period, in order to assess the extent to which it is aligned with the Medium projection scenario for the period. Whilst the initial years of operation of the RWSS during the second half of the next LTP period are not expected to see any major change from the existing broad locational profile of residential development in the district, the years following could see emerging trends such as increased housing demand 'on farm' or in close proximity to farms being serviced by the RWSS, increased rural-residential or small rural town housing demand (particularly in the Tikokino CAU area) and increased housing demand within and around the main urban centres of Waipukurau and Waipawa. Over the 2026-2046 period, the leading areas of new housing growth in the District with the RWSS project are, in order, Elsthorpe-Fleming ton, Waipukurau, Waipawa and Tikokino. Over the 201 3-2046 period, the Median age of the CHBD population is currently projected to increase from 43.1 to 54.3 years under the Statistics NZ Medium population growth scenario, with the 65+ population more than doubling. At this time, the impact of the RWSS on the District's population is envisaged as being a general 'softening' of the ageing trend in the area particularly with new younger residents and families living and working in the area. Subsequent to its report prepared last year for the Council on the long-term demographic and economic growth outlook for the Central Hawke's Bay District (CHBD), Economic Solutions Ltd (ESL) has been requested by the Council to provide further detailed information on the anticipated location and associated level of new housing development in CHBD over the long-term planning period. This information is intended to assist the Council in its planning for future services and infrastructurel provision in the district. For the purposes of this report, the long-term period comprises two parts, the next LTP (Long-Term Plan) interval 2015-2025 and the 20-year interval following this, that is, 2026-2046. Within this, ESL has also be asked to comment on future residential development in CHBD, both without and with the proposed RWSS (Ruataniwha Water Storage Scheme) project. The 'without RWSS' scenario represents the 'Status Quo' position which essentially reflects a continuation of long-term historical demographic trends in the district. The specific matters addressed in the following sections of the report are as follows: . Historical residential growth within the district. Future residential growth under the Status Quo scenario. Future residential growth under the RWSS scenario. The information sources used for the analysis contained in the report are indicated in the different sections following It is noted that relevant information from the report prepared for the Council last year concerning the long-term growth outlook for CHBD, is also included in this later report. This section indicates the location and amount of new residential development in CHBD since the 2001 Census year. The indicators of 'households' and 'consented new residential dwellings' are both used in the analysis, with data results for the indicators being sourced from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) information. 2.2 Appendices I(A) and I(B) are sourced directly from last year's report and indicate both historical and projected population and household growth in CHBD under the Status Quo growth scenario, based on the 2006 Census results. 2.3 Table I over-page and below the map summarises the change in the number of households in the different Census Area Units (CAUs) in the district, between 2001 and 2013. On the basis of SNZ figures, one 'household' basically equates to one 'occupied private dwelling' on Census night. CAUs refer to the broad collection areas that are used for the administration of Census survey forms at each UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd Census. Figure I above the table provides a map of the different CAUs within CHBD. The table provides a broad locational profile of the additional residential development occurring in the district since 2001. 2.4 It should be noted that SNZ uses the Census 'household' indicator for its projections on future residential growth for the various districts and regions in New Zealand. FIGURE I: MAP OF CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT CENSUS AREA UNITS AND LOCALITIES 2013 Rangitikei Hastings District District .wakar onkokino .Bbckburn OArgy E SI Tlkoklno . re . .Elsthorpe ^shley, :linton wa Mariawatu Wal kuruu airakau Walpawa District angakuri Beach d. Iaturria Tak u Takapau comakere ourerere Elsttiorpe-Fleming ton . lackhead .walling ford orangahau Tararua e Paerahi Warigaorapa District angaehu UrbanGrowthStrategyMay2015. docx Economic Solutions Ltd TABLE I : CENTRAL HAWKE'S BAY DISTRICT HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2001-2013 CENSUS PERIOD BY CENSUS AREA UNIT. Households Change CAU 2001 20.3 Otane 182 235 53 29.1 Waipawa 756 841 85 11.2 Waipukurau 1543 1653 110 7.1 Elsthorpe-Flemington 1090 1239 149 13.7 Porengahau 99 88 -11 -I 1.1 Tikokino 923 1067 144 15.6 Takapau 204 210 6 29 TOTAL 4797 5333 536 11.2 25 The results in the table indicate that the leading CAU growth areas over the period were, in numerical terms, Elsthorpe-Flemington, Tikokino, Waipukurau, Waipawa and Otane.
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