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Hindustan Unilever (HINLEV) HindustanTAT Unilever (HINLEV) CMP: | 1670 Target: | 1900 ( 14%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD May 6, 2019 Volume growth moderates on high base… Hindustan Unilever (HUL) reported a healthy set of numbers with revenue growth of 9.3% YoY on the back of 7% volume growth. Volume growth moderated on a high base, after delivering five consecutive quarters of double digit growth. Operating margins expanded 83 bps YoY to 23.3% well Particulars supported by a 63 bps decline in marketing expenses to sales, 35 bps Particular (| crore) Amount reduction in employee expenses to sales and 11 bps decline in other Market Capitalization 360,720.0 overheads to sales, partly offset by a 27 bps increase in material costs to Total Debt (FY19) 0.0 sales. Led by healthy sales growth and strong margins, net profit for the Cash and Investments (FY19) 6,381.0 Result Update Result quarter grew 13.8% YoY to | 1,538 crore. EV 354,339.0 52 week H/L (|) 1870 / 1443 Leveraging direct reach & building blocks in e-commerce Equity capital 216.0 Face value | 1 Consumer companies have been historically dependent on wholesale FII Holding (%) 11.8 channel as its main trade channel. HUL, which has total reach of 7 million DII Holding (%) 7.0 outlets, has built its direct reach over the period and it stands at around 50%; much higher than other FMCG players. This gives it an edge over its peers, Key Highlights especially when the wholesale channel is under pressure. Proactively, HUL is also increasing its presence in e-commerce (3% of turnover) which has Home care (35% of revenue) posted been growing at a fast pace post GST implementation. Additionally, HUL robust growth of 13% with 120 bps expansion in EBIT margins to 17.7%, plans to upgrade consumption in detergent towards premium products specifically from ‘Wheel’ to ‘Rin’ to ‘Surf’ to liquid detergent. Premiumisation driven by premiumisation trend was witnessed in Q4FY19 with visible signs of strong home care Personal care (45% of revenue) sales growth given larger sales of liquids in detergents & dish wash categories. growth was moderate at 7% impacted Beverage continues to gain market share by muted growth in personal wash (soaps) with a 26 bps improvement in HUL is the leading Indian tea company with brands like Taaza at the EBIT margin to 27.8% economy end, Red Label at the medium end and Taj Mahal, Lipton at the premium end. Tea has continued to deliver double digit growth with Food & refreshments (F&R) segments revenue, profitability growing 1.8x, 2x, respectively, in the past six years. (20% of revenue) grew 10% with 146 HUL’s tea brands are competing with TGBL brands across all segments. bps improvement in EBIT margins to HUL’s share in tea inched up to 22% from 19% in 2016 while TGBL‘s share 18.1% driven by ice creams and frozen Research Equity Retail slipped to 21% from 22% in the same period, as per industry reports. In foods segments – volumes, however, TGBL’s share of 20% is ahead of HUL’s 18%. A multi- pronged strategy appears to have worked for HUL in regaining value Research Analyst leadership in tea. Its ‘Winning in Many Indias’ framework has been Sanjay Manyal effectively leveraged in the tea category. [email protected] Valuation & Outlook Kapil Jagasia, CFA [email protected] Despite rising input cost pressure, we believe higher growth from improving Securities ICICI volumes and pricing actions along with HUL’s cost efficiencies provide visibility for future earnings growth. We estimate HUL will report revenue, PAT CAGR of 14%, 16.3%, respectively, in FY19-21E. Though HUL-GSKCH merger would bring in significant synergy benefits, valuations at 50x FY21E provide little headroom for strong upside. Hence, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with a target price of | 1900. Key Financial Summary s Key Financials FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E) Net Sales 33895.0 33926.0 37660.0 43057.0 49010.8 14.1% EBITDA 6046.8 7276.0 8637.0 9832.4 11140.5 13.6% EBITDA Margin % 17.8 21.4 22.9 22.8 22.7 Net Profit 5036.7 5237.0 6036.0 7102.9 8164.9 16.3% EPS (|) 23.32 24.25 27.94 32.88 37.80 P/E 71.6 68.9 59.8 50.8 44.2 RoNW % 74.9 74.7 80.9 87.3 99.0 RoCE (%) 74.9 79.9 85.3 102.8 116.3 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Hindustan Unilever ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis EESes Particulars (| crore) Q4FY19 Q4FY19E Q4FY18 YoY (%) Q3FY19 QoQ (%) Comments Net income grew 9.3% YoY mainly led by 7% volume Total Operating Income 9,945.0 10,001.5 9,097.0 9.3 9,558.0 4.0 growth during the quarter Other Operating Income 136.0 144.0 94.0 44.7 201.0 -32.3 Raw Material Expenses 4,743.0 4,746.9 4,314.0 9.9 4,418.0 7.4 Employee Expenses 402.0 409.3 400.0 0.5 465.0 -13.5 Marketing Expenses 1,107.0 1,245.8 1,070.0 3.5 1,186.0 -6.7 Other operating expenses declined 128 bps YoY as a Other operating expenses 1,372.0 1,497.5 1,265.0 8.5 1,443.0 -4.9 percentage of sales on the back of cost rationalisation measures EBITDA increased 13.3% on account of a mix EBITDA 2,321.0 2,102.0 2,048.0 13.3 2,046.0 13.4 improvement and cost saving initiatives EBITDA margin (%) 23.3 22.6 22.5 83 bps 21.4 193 bps Depreciation 134.0 131.3 128.0 4.7 133.0 0.8 Interest 7.0 0.0 4.0 N.A. 7.0 N.A. Other Income 118.0 -165.3 100.0 18.0 106.0 11.3 PBT 2,298.0 2,135.9 2,016.0 14.0 1,950.0 17.8 Exceptional charge was pertaining to deferred Exceptional Items -71.0 0.0 -64.0 N.A. -62.0 N.A. consideration payable on account of Indulekha acquisition Tax Outgo 689.0 683.5 601.0 14.6 506.0 36.2 PAT 1,538.0 1,452.4 1,351.0 13.8 1,444.0 6.5 Key Metrics growth YoY (%) Home care 12.9 12.4 14.8 Strong volume growth driven by premiumisation Personal care 7.3 10.4 11.0 Muted growth due to slowdown in key brands Strong growth momentum owing to growth in ice Foods & Refreshments 10.4 13.3 9.9 cream and frozen foods segments EBIT margin (%) Home care 17.7 NA 16.5 120 bps 14.2 350 bps Personal care 27.8 NA 27.5 30 bps 25.7 210 bps Foods & Refreshments 18.1 NA NA NA 15.1 300 bps Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY20E FY21E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Sales 43,598.4 43,057.0 -1.2 50,089.3 49,010.8 -2.2 We slightly change our estimates EBITDA 9,753.4 9,832.4 0.8 11,276.2 11,140.5 -1.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.4 22.5 15 bps 22.5 22.4 -10 bps PAT 7,097.1 7,102.9 0.1 8,187.0 8,164.9 -0.3 EPS (|) 33.4 32.9 -1.5 38.4 37.8 -1.6 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumptions Current Earlier (| crore) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Comments We have incorporated minor changes in our Home care 11,123.0 11,629.0 12,876.0 14,421.1 16,584.3 14,894.0 17,128.1 estimates Personal care 16,078.0 16,464.0 17,655.0 19,773.6 22,541.9 20,229.5 23,264.0 Refreshments 4,795.0 6,487.0 7,133.0 8,274.3 9,267.2 7,710.3 8,775.9 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Hindustan Unilever ICICI Direct Research Conference Call Highlights Sales growth on YoY basis (%) Home care segment grew 13% on the back of strong growth in fabric wash, driven by premiumisation and market development initiatives. Sunlight brand entered the | 500 crore turnover. Surf Excel Easy Wash HUL 9 Liquid was launched on a pan-India basis. Growth momentum in household care continued with increased category penetration of bars Foods & Refreshment 10 in rural markets and urban consumer upgrading to dishwash liquids. HUL launched an access pack of Domex in Tamil Nadu to aid market development. HUL continued its strategy to reshape its water purifier Personal care 7 portfolio towards premium devices (UV and RO). Pureit Copper RO purifier has been launched as a part of their water purifier restaging Home care 13 strategy Personal care sales growth slowed down to 7% on account of muted 0 5 10 15 sales in the personal wash segment. Premium products under Dove and Pears performed well. Naturals’ portfolio under Hamam and Lyril also reported healthy growth. However, mass brands, Lux and Lifebuoy, Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research were impacted by moderation in rural demand. HUL intends to take price cuts in these two brands to pass on the benefits of benign input costs and increase the value proposition. Skin care segment witnessed double digit growth led by premium segment.
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