Understanding the War in Yemen

Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs

ISSN: 2373-9770 (Print) 2373-9789 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rifa20

Marcel Serr

To cite this article: Marcel Serr (2018): Understanding the War in Yemen, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, DOI: 10.1080/23739770.2017.1419405 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/23739770.2017.1419405

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Understanding the War in Yemen Marcel Serr

Marcel Serr is a political scientist and until recently served as assistant director of the German Protestant Institute of Archaeology (GPIA) in Jerusalem. Mr. Serr is an independent researcher and specializes in Israel’s defense and security policy and the military history of the Middle East. Currently, he serves as editor at the Konrad- Adenauer-Stiftung in Berlin.

A few years ago, Yemen looked as if it might be one of the few “success stories” of the so-called Arab Spring. Since 2014, however, the country has descended into a chaotic civil war; today, it is one of the poorest in the world. According to the 2016 UN Human Development Index, Yemen ranks 168 out of 188 countries, and the population faces severe water and food shortages.1

Whoever thinks that the violence in Yemen is just the result of another fierce conflict, far away in an unimportant place on the global periphery, should think again. Yemen is strategically located next to Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s major oil producers, and the Ban-el-Mandeb strait, a vital waterway linking the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In addition, Yemen could become a major battleground in the fight for regional supremacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Thus, there are plenty of reasons to monitor the developments there very carefully. Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018

Background

The population of Yemen is almost entirely Muslim, divided between Shi’a Zaydis, who mostly live in the north, and Sunnis. A series of Zaydi dynasties ruled parts of Yemen from the ninth century until 1962. However, in the 1960s, a civil war in the north and an uprising in the south against the British—who had ruled the port city of Aden and its surroundings since the nineteenth century—changed the political landscape. The Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) was established, and in the south, the socialist People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) was born.

In 1990, North and South Yemen merged to form the Republic of Yemen. Ali Abdullah Saleh, the former ruler of the YAR, became president of the newly

uniﬁed country. His rule was characterized by nepotism and corruption, and unsurprisingly, Yemen remained among the poorest nations in the Arab world.2

The “Arab Spring” in Yemen

As unrest spread across the Arab world in 2011, youth–led demonstrations chal- lenged Saleh’s rule in Yemen and attracted broad popular support. Soon, the pro- testers were joined by key players of the regime who understood that the “writing was on the wall.” In mid–2011, the confrontation became increasingly violent, with street battles erupting in the capital city of Sana’a and elsewhere. In November 2011, Saleh agreed to a transition plan that granted him immunity in return for his resignation.

In February 2012, Yemen held presidential elections with only one candidate— former Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. As a result, a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) was convened to design and implement constitutional reforms before new elections were held. The NDC ended inconclusively in January 2014. Eventually, the participants extended President Hadi’stermby another year.

Hadi was plagued by a number of problems, including attacks by al-Qa‘ida; a separatist movement in the south; the continuing loyalty of many military ofﬁcers to Saleh; as well as corruption, unemployment, and food insecurity. The Houthis, a Zaydi movement in the north, took advantage of the government’s weakness. Within weeks of the NDC’s conclusion, they launched a military offensive against Hadi, taking control of Sana’a and other parts of the country’s north and west until the summer of 2014. Some members of the security services, who were pro–Saleh, supported the Houthis, thus bringing the tacit Houthi–Saleh alliance to light.

Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 In January 2015, the Houthis seized the presidential palace, setting up a shadow government and reinforcing their control over Sana’a by placing Hadi and his government under house arrest. A few weeks later, they completed their coup d’état by establishing a “revolutionary council” and other associated governmental bodies. Hadi eventually escaped to Aden in the south of Yemen, accusing the Houthis of perpetrating a coup and stressing his own legitimacy as the internationally recognized head of state. Hadi was quick to form an anti–Houthi/Saleh alliance that included elements of the southern separatist movement, Islamists, and tribesmen mostly from the south and from Sunni areas of the north.

Yemen rapidly descended into chaos. The Houthis attempted to take control of the entire country with the help of security forces loyal to Saleh, but their expansion alienated signiﬁcant segments of Yemen’s population. Making matters worse,

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al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and a branch of the nascent Islamic State (IS) exploited the state’s weakness, asserting territorial control in Yemen’s southeast.

Hadi ﬂed to Saudi Arabia in March 2015 as the Houthis prepared to capture Aden. This was the tipping point for Saudi King Salman and his favorite son and newly appointed successor, thirty-two-year-old Defense Minister Muhammad bin Salman. Alarmed by the rise of the Houthis, whom they rightly believed to be backed by their nemesis, Iran, Riyadh formed an alliance of mostly Sunni Arab states, which launched a military campaign at the end of March 2015. The declared objective of that operation was to defeat the Houthis and restore Hadi’s government.3

Who Is Fighting Whom?

There are two oppositional factions, the ﬁrst being the bloc of Houthi forces allied with ex–President Saleh, who receive Iranian support; the second is a messy anti– Houthi/Saleh alliance, which supports the Hadi government and is backed by a Saudi–led coalition. It is supported by the United States and other Western states. These factions are internally diverse, with each of the actors having compet- ing interests and priorities.

The Houthi/Saleh Bloc

The Houthis are a prominent Zaydi–Shi’a4 clan who claim descent from the prophet Muhammad. Their roots are in a Zaydi revivalist movement and they see their actions as a response to Wahhabi proselytizing in Shi’a areas, and Saudi inﬂuence in Yemen in general. Their base is in the northern governorate Saada, and they operate a trained militia of 20,000–30,000 ﬁghters. Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 Having ruled for more than thirty years, ex–President Saleh commands an exten- sive tribal, military, and political network throughout the country. He cooperates with the Houthis to ensure his political survival—the alliance is one of necessity. Despite a fraught history, Saleh and the Houthis are bound together by common enemies. But like many political marriages of convenience, their relation- ship lacks a solid foundation. Many of Saleh’s supporters are proud of belonging to a secular party and view the Houthis as religious zealots. The Houthis, in turn, despise Saleh and his close circle because of their corrupt past.5

Saudi Arabia and the Hadi government accuse the Houthis of being Iran’s proxy. They claim that Iran provides them with signiﬁcant amounts of military equipment, and training. While the exact amount of assistance is unclear, there is no

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doubt that the Houthis do receive military support from Iran, albeit to a limited degree. Intercepted weapons shipments are proof of the fact that Iran provides light and medium weaponry to the Houthis.6

Over the course of the past year Iran has ramped up its military support, supplying advanced munitions that enable the Houthi–Saleh faction to counter certain capabilities of the Arab coalition and threaten freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. The Houthis have been ﬂying Iranian drones right into the radar sets of the Saudi Patriot missile systems. With the radar disabled, rebels can ﬁre missiles at coalition forces. As US Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan told Reuters: “These weapons didn’t exist … before the war.”7 They must have come from somewhere and Iran is the most likely source.

Until Tehran exerts control over Houthi decision making, the Houthis cannot truly be considered a direct Iranian proxy. This, however, may change with a further escalation of the war in Yemen.8

The Anti–Houthi/Saleh Bloc

The opposing bloc has even more unlikely partners, whose alliance is founded solely upon their shared opposition to the Houthis. It includes the internationally recognized government and combines three main domestic actors: southern separatists, Sunni Islamists, and other tribal actors. The coalition is strongest in the south and east. However, it depends fundamentally on external political and military backing.

The Hadi government is, paradoxically, both the strongest and weakest asset for the anti–Houthi/Saleh bloc. As the internationally recognized government of Yemen, Hadi provides the Saudis with justification for their involvement in the war. However, having no popular base whatsoever, Hadi is completely dependent upon the support of various Gulf States for his political survival. Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 Most anti–Houthi fighters in the south are separatists. For years, southern Yeme- nites have been frustrated because of their perceived second–class status in the unified state. The war has only increased their hatred for the north and their desire to break away. The separatist movement (known as the al–Hirak) calls for the resurrection of the state of South Yemen. Though it has gained broad popu- larity, it remains divided and therefore less effective. Although aligned with Hadi, due to his outright rejection of the south’s secession from Yemen, most southern groups are openly hostile to the government.

In addition, the anti–Houthi bloc includes a broad range of Sunni Islamist groups that are united in ideological opposition to the Shi’a Houthis. Their rank-and-ﬁle is driven by religious zeal to ﬁght the Shi’a. The most important group is al-Islah—a

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political party that combines the Yemenite branch of the Muslim Brotherhood with Salafi and tribal components. Al-Islah, however, lacks a standing militia. Instead, it relies on affiliated tribal fighters and regular soldiers. Like the separatists, it is far more anti–Houthi than pro–Hadi.

The anti–Houthi/Saleh front receives signiﬁcant external support—primarily from Saudi Arabia, which is leading a multinational military campaign in close cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and a coalition of mainly Sunni states. Saudi Arabia perceives the war in Yemen as being fought between the legitimate government and an Iranian-backed militia. Riyadh feels that it cannot tolerate the Houthi/Iranian presence at its southern border and justiﬁes its intervention in Yemen as “self-defense against an external aggressor.”9

The US, Great Britain, and France assist the Saudi–led coalition by providing critical military support and political cover. Saudi Arabia’s Western allies are in a predicament, as withdrawing military support would only reinforce the Saudis’ fear of being abandoned in favor of Iran. However, the West’s continued involvement contributes to a humanitarian disaster, heightens Saudi–Iranian tensions, and possibly renders the West complicit in Saudi Arabia’s war crimes.10

Struggle for Regional Supremacy: Iran vs Saudi Arabia

Recently, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi defense minister, stressed in a widely cited TV interview that a dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran was impossible, due to the latter’s ambitions “to control the Islamic world.” Prince Muhammad is the face of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. Ger- many’s foreign intelligence agency (Bundesnachrichtendienst) has suggested that his personal ambitions have also played a role in the Saudi intervention.11

Although the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is often referred to as a Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 struggle between Sunnis and Shi’a, it is their regional rather than religious aspirations that drives their rivalry. Both countries vie to maximize their spheres of influence in the Middle East, making an already volatile region even more unstable. Tehran tries to export its ideas to states with a significant Shi’a population, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and the oil–rich eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia. For its part, Saudi Arabia and the other conservative Arab mon- archies perceive the promotion of Iran’s revolutionary agenda in the Middle East as particularly threatening, as they fear it may incite unrest among their respect- ive populations.

Until now, Riyadh and Tehran have avoided direct military confrontation. Instead, both regimes struggle for supremacy through proxy wars in which they try to manipulate existing conﬂicts in the region in their favor. Yemen is not the only

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battlefield of the Saudi–Iranian competition; both are backing opposing groups in Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Iraq. The conflict in Yemen, however, is central to the Iranian–Saudi power struggle. It is geographically close to Saudi Arabia and bears strategic value to Riyadh; however, with little effort, Tehran is managing to keep the Saudis occupied and to lay a heavy financial, political, and military burden on them.12

Yemen at War: The Current Situation

In spring 2017, the war in Yemen entered its third year of ﬁghting with no clear victor. Pro-government forces consisting of soldiers loyal to Hadi, and predomi- nantly Sunni southern tribesmen and separatists, were successful in preventing the rebels from taking Aden in the summer of 2015, but only after a bloody, four-month battle. Having established a beachhead, Arab coalition troops landed in Aden and helped drive the Houthis out of much of the south. Mean- while, Hadi returned from exile and established his government in the southern port city, but his area of control is contained within Aden and its immediate surroundings.

In 2017, the coalition forces have concentrated on Yemen’s Red Sea Coast. The operation was intended to isolate the Houthi–Saleh faction in central Yemen. The Saudi-led air campaign as well as the naval and air blockade have slowed advances and strained Houthi supply lines. This has had a devastating effect on the civilian population: By March 2017, almost 10,000 civilians had been killed.13

Despite military setbacks, the Houthi militias, together with the portion of the army loyal to Saleh, still present a formidable force that is far from defeated. Sana’a is still under Houthi–Saleh control and pro-Houthi forces are still able to launch cross-border attacks into Saudi Arabia.14 Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 On November 4, 2017, the Saudi–Iranian crisis over Yemen escalated when Houthi/Saleh forces ﬁred a ballistic missile at the King Khalid airport near the Saudi capital. Although it was intercepted by a US Patriot air defense system, the political effects were signiﬁcant. Apparently, this attack was a response to Saudi airstrikes in the Houthis’ home region of Saada. Riyadh linked the attack to Tehran and called it “an act of war by Iran.”15 US President Trump agreed: “A shot was taken by Iran, in my opinion, at Saudi Arabia.”16 Two days later, Riyadh tightened the naval and air blockade of Yemen. However, this only dee- pened the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. According to the World Health Organiz- ation, seven million Yemenites are on the brink of famine, including 2 million children. There are 900,000 people infected with cholera, and more than 2,000 have already died.17 Further fuel shortages will diminish the food market even

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more. Thus, Riyadh’s military options are limited. Any legitimate targets for the air force have already been destroyed.

The situation in Yemen, three years since the beginning of the Saudi-led intervention, remains bleak. The military campaign had not generated enough momentum for the Arab coalition to compel the Houthi–Saleh faction to come to the negotiating table. It further entangled Yemen in the Iranian–Saudi conﬂict and worsened an already severe humanitarian crisis. AQAP has exploited this situation, expanding its support base within Yemen’s Sunni population.18

What Will US President Trump Do?

Washington has provided essential military support to the Saudi-led coalition. American assistance to Saudi Arabia appears to be part of the price for Riyadh’s reluctant acceptance of the nuclear deal with Iran. In addition, the White House wants to prevent Yemen from becoming a sanctuary for terrorist groups. Recent developments have also led to great concern in the US regarding the freedom of navigation along the Yemenite coast.19

US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 strengthened Riyadh’s position. The weapons deal worth $110 billion that was the subject of the meeting can be interpreted as being indicative of Washington’s approval for the Saudi campaign in Yemen. It is a major policy shift away from the Obama administration, which suspended arms sales to Saudi Arabia in October 2016. Recently, Washington has also expanded counterterrorism operations in Yemen.20

An intensification of US involvement is likely to result in a further escalation of the conflict. Iran has already increased its military support for the Houthis, further heightening the danger. For example, in January 2017, the Houthis used an unmanned remote-controlled boat to bomb the Saudi frigate Al Madinah off the Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 coast of Hodeidah in the Red Sea. Such operations will become more frequent if Iran steps up support for the Houthis.21 Washington has made clear that it will not tolerate a restriction of navigation in the Red Sea, and has bolstered the US Navy’s presence by deploying the USS Cole in the area. It is very likely that another incident such as the one that occurred in October 2016, when the USS Mason, an Arleigh–Burke–Class destroyer, was attacked with anti-ship missiles several times, will easily draw the US further into the conflict.22

AQAP and the Islamic State

AQAP and the Islamic State are arguably the war’s principal beneﬁciaries: They are both the Houthis’ sworn ideological enemies and view the Shi’aas

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heretics. The two groups ﬁght together with the other actors of the anti-Houthi/ Saleh bloc. Although it is difﬁcult to quantify their effectiveness compared to the other forces in the coalition, it is safe to say that they are key players in the struggle against the Shi’a rebels on several fronts. However, like most actors in the anti–Houthi/Saleh bloc, they also reject the Hadi government and are attempting to prevent it from consolidating control over southern Yemen.

The US considers AQAP al-Qa‘ida’s most dangerous branch, because it has proven its ability to strike outside Yemen, particularly against the US, on several occasions. AQAP attempted to blow up a Northwest Airlines ﬂight (December 2009) and sent parcel bombs on a ﬂight to the US (October 2010). It also claimed responsibility for the attack on the Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris (January 2015). In Yemen, however, AQAP is focusing on seizing territory, particularly in the country’s remote southern provinces.

Unlike AQAP, IS is comparatively new in Yemen. The Islamic State’sbranch “Province of Yemen” claimed responsibility for its ﬁrst attack in March 2015 against Zaydi mosques in Sana’a, killing over 140 people. IS is even more prone to brutality than AQAP and has no regard for local norms, customs, or traditions. Both AQAP and IS beneﬁt not only from the collapse of local government authority, but also from the Houthis’ expansion into Sunni areas, as it presents new opportunities for recruitment. Tensions run high between AQAP and IS as they compete for the same recruits. Nevertheless, AQAP and IS have made substantial political and territorial gains in the war and will continue to do so as long as there is no government capable of confronting them.23

The Saudi Coalition’s Military Performance

Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 The war in Yemen provides an opportunity to assess the military performance and capabilities of Saudi Arabia and its allies—most notably the UAE. Since 2000, the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have spent more than $1 trillion on Western military equipment. Yet the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen came as a surprise to many observers, as neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE were believed to be capable of launching an operation as large and offensive as that in Yemen. Nevertheless, the number of forces from neighboring states that Riyadh managed to muster is impressive. The coalition commands approximately 170 aircraft.

For years, the UAE has been preparing its forces for an operation such as this. Several training missions have been conducted abroad, starting with small contributions to peacekeeping expeditions in the 1990s in East Africa and

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Kosovo, and continuing in 2008 with the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan. The UAE demonstrated its mature military capability during the 2011 NATO–led operation in Libya, as well as through its involvement in airstrikes against IS targets in Iraq and Syria since 2014. No wonder, then, that US Defense Secretary James Mattis called the UAE “little Sparta.”24 In comparison, Saudi military forces had considerably less experience, although Saudi Arabia invested sig- niﬁcantly in military procurement and training throughout the 1990s and 2000s.

The coordination of airpower is a challenging task for the Saudis, as they need to manage the operation of eight different classes of ﬁghter jets from nine countries. As if this were not complicated enough, the US Air Force ﬂew hundreds of air-to- air refueling missions, providing a crucial capability the Arab states lacked. Riyadh’s coordination of this multinational operation has been technically out- standing to date. However the aerial campaign has been responsible for horrible collateral damage in Yemen with thousands of civilian casualties and massive destruction to vital infrastructure.

Meanwhile, on the Saudi home front, rockets and artillery attacks by the Houthis have continued to disrupt life in the border region. Huthi/Salah forces have ﬁred hundreds of projectiles into Saudi Arabia since 2015, including at least thirty ballistic missiles.

The initial goals of the Arab coalition’s mission appear to remain unattainable. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been able to achieve signiﬁcant tactical and operational success, the shortage of capable infantry has proven to be proble- matic. The deployment of special forces and mercenaries has been too infrequent to reinforce the coalition, as they are not part of a coherent ground offensive. Instead, the coalition relies on local partners who are diverse and often hostile toward one another. Consequently, competition among these local Yemenite factions escalates, Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 which, in turn, creates a vacuum that AQAP and IS are eager to ﬁll. The large number of civilian deaths and the havoc wrought to Yemen’s infrastructure has rendered the goal of a functioning state after the war unattainable for the foresee- able future.25

Implications for Israel

The Houthis are openly hostile to Israel. Their slogan “Death to Israel, A Curse on the Jews” resembles the motto of the Iranian Revolution. Houthi rule has undoubtedly worsened the situation for the ﬁfty or so remaining Jews in Yemen (some 49,000 Yemenite Jews were airlifted to Israel in Operation Magic Carpet in 1949–50).26

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There was a brief episode of military cooperation between Israel and Yemen’sShi’a. During the civil war in North Yemen (1962–70), Jerusalem supported the Zaydi royalists against the revolutionaries backed by Egypt. When Israel learned that the Egyptians had used chemical weapons in North Yemen, it was concerned that this might pose a future threat to the Jewish State. To gain intelligence, Israel cooperated with the British to airlift weapons and supplies to the royalists.27

The conﬂict in Yemen has three major implications for Israel. First, assisting the Houthis provides Iran with the opportunity to test new weapons and tactics that may well end up in the hands of Hizbullah or Hamas, and could pose a real threat to Israel. Particularly worth mentioning are the use of aerial and maritime drones as “kill vehicles,” which could endanger Israel’s gas rigs in the Mediterranean.28

Second, Israeli politicians are concerned that the US–Saudi arms deal could weaken Israel’s military edge. Some fear that US weapons in Saudi Arabia could end up in the hands of Sunni terrorist groups. The weapons deal is, however, far from ﬁnalized; it is still “a bunch of letters of interest or intent.”29

Third, the balancing of Sunni states under the leadership of Saudi Arabia against the Iranian bid for regional supremacy seems to establish a tacit alliance between the Gulf States and Israel. There may even be concrete steps of rapprochement encouraged by the White House. In May and June 2017, media reports indicated that a partial normalization of relations between the Gulf States and Israel was being discussed behind closed doors. Although it is unclear how serious these developments are, this may pose a rare opportunity for Israel to exploit the unify- ing moment that Iran, as a common threat, presents, and to further cooperate with the Gulf States.30

Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 Conclusion

The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough in Yemen remains remote, and it is likely to be the site of a long, drawn-out conflict. The military situation is dead- locked, as the various factions are motivated by hatred, mistrust, and sectarian- ism. An intensification of the Saudi–Iranian struggle for regional dominance might lead to a further escalation of the conflict. But even if the Saudi-led coalition forces manage to conquer Sana’a (which presently appears unlikely), this would not end the fighting. The Houthis will not simply lay down their arms. Unfortunately, the most probable outcome of Saudi Arabia’s intervention will be the emergence of a failed state in its direct neighborhood, where the Houthis remain a hostile key player, and which provides an ideal breeding ground for jihadism to thrive.

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Notes

1 Human Development Reports, Yemen, http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/YEM. 2 Jeremy M. Sharp, “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations,” Congressional Research Service, February 11, 2015, pp. 30f, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf. 3 Sharp, op. cit., pp. 2f., 31f. International Crisis Group, “Yemen at War,” March 27, 2015, pp. 1–5, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b45-yemen-at-war.pdf; Bruce Riedel, “Yemen war turns two,” Al-Monitor, March 12, 2017, www.al-monitor.com/ pulse/originals/2017/03/yemen-war-saudi-arabia-two-years-houthi-iran.html. 4 Zaydism is a branch of Shi’a Islam; it is, however, distinct from the so-called Twelver Shi’ism, found in contemporary Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon. Today, Zaydis account for approximately one third of Yemen’s citizens; the rest are Sunnis. 5 International Crisis Group, “The Huthis: From Saada to Sanaa,” June 10, 2014, https:// d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/the-huthis-from-saada-to-sanaa.pdf. 6 International Crisis Group, “Yemen: Is Peace Possible?” February 9, 2016, pp. 5–11, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/167-yemen-is-peace-possible.pdf. 7 Phil Stewart and Yara Bayoumy, “In Yemen Conflict, a Window into Deepening US– Gulf Ties,” Reuters, April 27, 2017. 8 Maher Farrukh, Tyler Nocita, and Emily Estelle, “Warning Update: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Yemen,” Critical Threats, March 26, 2017, www.criticalthreats.org/ analysis/warning-update-irans-hybrid-warfare-in-yemen; Christopher Diamond, “Houthi rebels flying Iranian-made Kamikaze drones into surveillance radars,” Defense News, March 28, 2017, www.defensenews.com/articles/report-houthi-rebels- flying-iranian-made-kamikaze-drones-into-surveillance-radars. 9 Sebastian Sons and Toby Matthiesen, “The Yemen War in Saudi Media,” Muftah,July 20, 2016, http://muftah.org/yemen-war-saudi-media/#.WQpCfeXyiUk. 10 International Crisis Group (2016), op. cit., pp. 13–25. 11 “BND warnt vor Saudi-Arabien,” Zeit Online, December 2, 2015, www.zeit.de/politik/ ausland/2015-12/saudi-arabien-bnd-aussenpolitik. 12 Gidon Windecker and Peter Sendrowicz, “Cold War in the Gulf,” International Reports, XXXII:4 (2016), 81, 83–87; Riedel, op. cit. Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 13 World Food Program, “Yemen: Situation Report No. 27,” March 15, 2017, http:// documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ep/wfp290997.pdf?_ga=2. 76386325.1638939424.1493816925-1230277463.1493816925. 14 Andrew Engel: “Reassessing the Civil War in Yemen,” Washington Institute, March 8, 2017, www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/reassessing-the-civil-war-in- yemen. 15 Siraj Wahab: Missile attack on Riyadh ‘an act of war’ by Iran, Arab News, November 7, 2017, www.arabnews.com/node/1189476/saudi-arabia. 16 Michael Knights: Countering Iran’s Missile Proliferation in Yemen, The Washington Institute, Policy Watch 2889, November 8, 2017, www.washingtoninstitute.org/ policy-analysis/view/countering-irans-missile-proliferation-in-yemen.

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17 WHO warns that more people will die if ports in Yemen do not reopen to humanitarian aid, WHO, November 9, 2017, www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2017/ yemen-ports-aid/en/. 18 International Crisis Group (2016), op. cit., pp. 1–4; Katherine Zimmerman, “Yemen Frontlines: October 2016,” Critical Threats, October 6, 2016, www.criticalthreats.org/ analysis/yemen-frontlines-october-2016; Maher Farruk and Tyler Nocita, “Yemen Situ- ation Report,” Critical Threats, March 23, 2017, www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/yemen- situation-report/2017-yemen-crisis-situation-report-march-23;Riedel,op.cit. 19 Joe Gould, “CENTCOM chief: ‘Vital US interests at stake’ in Yemen,” Defense News, March 29, 2017, www.defensenews.com/articles/centcom-chief-vital-us-interests-at- stake-in-yemen. 20 Aaron Mehta and Joe Gould, “Why the Saudi weapons deal may not live up the hype,” Defense News, May 28, 2017: 1, 24. www.defensenews.com/articles/why-the-saudi- weapons-deal-may-not-live-up-to-hype; Warren Strobel and Arshad Mohammed “Weighing Arms Sale, US Seeks Saudi Pledge on Yemen Civilian Casualties,” Reuters, April 20, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-saudi-yemen- idUSKBN17M2ZK; Aaron Mehta and Shawn Snow, “New Strikes in Yemen,” Defense News, March 3, 2017, www.defensenews.com/articles/new-strikes-in-yemen-but-no-us- troops-in-ﬁreﬁght; Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper, “Navy SEALs Kill 7 Militants in Yemen Raid but Suffer Injuries,” The New York Times, May 23, 2017, www.nytimes. com/2017/05/23/world/middleeast/navy-seals-yemen-raid.html?_r=0. 21 Christopher P. Cavas, “New Houthi weapon emerges: a drone boat,” Defense News, Feb- ruary 19, 2017, www.defensenews.com/articles/new-houthi-weapon-emerges-a-drone- boat. 22 Ibid; Phil Stewart, “US Navy ship targeted in failed missile attack from Yemen,” Reuters, October 10, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-usa-ship-idUSKCN12 A082. 23 International Crisis Group (2016), op. cit., pp. 17–19; Katherine Zimmerman and Jon Diamond, “Challenging the Yemeni State: ISIS in Aden and al Mukalla,” Critical Threats, June 9, 2016, www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/challenging-the-yemeni-state- isis-in-aden-and-al-mukalla; International Crisis Group, Yemen’sal–Qaeda: Expanding Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018 the Base, February 2, 2017, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/174-yemen-s-al- qaeda-expanding-the-base.pdf. 24 Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “In the UAE, the United States has a quiet, potent ally nicknamed ‘Little Sparta,’” The Washington Post, November 9, 2014, www. washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-the-uae-the-united-states-has-a-quiet- potent-ally-nicknamed-little-sparta/2014/11/08/3fc6a50c-643a-11e4-836c- 83bc4f26eb67_story.html?utm_term=.af7eb4a728bc; “UAE’s Battle-Hardened Mili- tary Expands Into Africa,” Mideast, US News, April 29, 2017, www.usnews.com/ news/world/articles/2017-04-29/uaes-battle-hardened-military-expands-into-africa- mideastl. 25 Emile Hokayem and David Roberts, “The War in Yemen,” Survival, LVIII:6 (2016), 157–86.

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26 Maayan Groisman, “Houthi leader: Israel participating in the aggression in Yemen,” The Jerusalem Post, May 3, 2016, www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Houthi-leader- Israel-participating-in-the-aggression-against-Yemen-452963; “Yemen Minister says fate of country’s last 50 Jews unknown,” The Times of Israel, April 16, 2017, www. timesofisrael.com/yemeni-minister-says-fate-of-countrys-remaining-jews-unknown/. 27 Oren Kessler, “When Israel Helped Yemen’s Shiites,” Politico Magazine, April 21, 2015, www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/israel-yemen-shiites-117208; Asher Orkaby, “Syria’s Chemical Weapons Might Start a New Six Day War,” The Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2017, www.wsj.com/articles/syrias-chemical-weapons-might-start-a-new-six- day-war-1496605055. 28 Michael Segall, “Yemen has become Iran’s Testing Ground for New Weapons,” Jeru- salem Center for Public Affairs, March 2, 2017, http://jcpa.org/article/yemen-has- become-irans-testing-ground-for-new-weapons/. 29 Raoul Wootliff and Raphael Ahren, “Lapid: Entire Israel security establishment is worried by Trump’s Saudi arms deal,” The Times of Israel, May 29, 2017, www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-entire-israeli-security-establishment-is-worried-by-trumps-saudi- arms-deal/; Bruce Riedel, “The $110 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia is fake news,” Brookings, June 5, 2017, www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/05/the-110-billion- arms-deal-to-saudi-arabia-is-fake-news/. 30 “Israel, Saudi Arabia are reportedly negotiating economic ties,” Haaretz, June 17, 2017, www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.796215; Zvi Barel, “Saudi Proposal to Israel could be the stuff of Trump’s Dream Deal,” Haaretz, May 2, 2017, www.haaretz. com/middle-east-news/1.789953. Downloaded by [95.90.247.96] at 05:46 07 January 2018