ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTH AFRICA: FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER NEEDS
(AF90)
6-month report
Feb. 2003
Contents:
Item Page ? General Summery (4) ? Egypt Report (5) ? A Brief Summary (6) ? Description of tasks performed and outputs produced (8) ? Description of difficulties encountered and lessons (10) learned ? Description of any connections or interaction between (12) your AIACC project and the preparation of national communications under the UNFCCC for countries relevant to your project ? Description of tasks to be performed in the next eight- (15) month period ? Anticipated difficulties in the next eight-month period (17) ? Attachments (18) ? Tunisia Report (22) ? Expense Report (23) ? AIACC Regional Study Expense Report (24) ? Morocco Report (28) ? Spain Report (30)
Summery The project enhance scientific and technical capacity in countries in North Africa for: (1) Assessing current and future adaptive capacity and vulnerability of food production and water resources (2) Enhancing adaptive capacity in current and future conditions (3) Synthesis of lessons learned in the region.
By analyzing the current situation the project will enhance the ability of the agriculture sector to interact with and respond to climate information in preparation for the projected range of climate changes through the 21st century.
The project compares the results of three case studies and integrates the results in a North Africa wide context. The local case studies have been selected to cover a range of climate and agricultural systems found in North Africa, allowing the sensitivity of the models to be tested. The following areas have been selected:
? Nile Delta, Egypt: High-production irrigated small-holder agriculture, in a region with extreme urban water and land-use conflicts, with projections of high population increase. ? Settat Province, Morocco: Very low-production mostly dryland agriculture, extremely high precipitation variability and persistent drought damages. ? Center Region, Tunisia: Medium/low -production mostly dryland agriculture, located in a region with an intensive economic and tourist activity.
Egypt Report
A) A brief summary
Summary
The potential impact of climate change on some food crops productivity and water needs of the major cropping pattern in Egypt (Wheat and summer vegetables) is being carried out by different methods; Stakeholder, empirical- statistical and simulation impact model analyses.
Stakeholder engagement is being conducted through four step processes as follows: Identifying Key Stakeholders, Determining Stakeholders’ Interests, Determining Stakeholder Power and Influence and Formulating a Stakeholder Participation Strategy.
Stakeholders in Egypt did field-based studies of the adaptation choices of small-holder farmers, commercial farmers and strategic resource managers. The methodology is a survey analysis and communication with stakeholders by local training and national workshops.
A primary results of previous and present demonstration aggregates and fields studies were taken from another activities been carried out and recommendations can be outlined to the AIACC present study. The AIACC Egyptian case study team work is participating in the mentioned activities and altering knowledge and information with them. Continuous analyses will be carried out through the project different stages.
A list of farmers from El-Beheira, Khafr El-Sheikh, and El-Gharbia Governorates was prepared as a selected sample to represent the project in the Delta region.
Also, more information on other activities is explained in the report.
B) Description of tasks performed and outputs produced
Main activities and achievements
The following activities were carried out through the first 6 months: a. Stakeholder engagement: It was conducted through four steps processes as follows: 1. Identifying Key Stakeholders, 2. Determining Stakeholders’ Interests, 3. Determining Stakeholder Power and Influence and 4. Formulating a Stakeholder Participation Strategy. b. Stakeholders Analyses: Stakeholders in Egypt did field-based studies of the adaptation choices of small-holder farmers, commercial farmers and strategic resource managers. The methodology is a survey analysis and communication with stakeholders by local training and national workshops.
A list of farmers from El-Beheira, Khafr El-Sheikh, and El-Gharbia Governorates was prepared as a selected sample to represent the Delta region. This list may be included in the first year report.
With the goal of increasing agricultural production and achieving the best possible use of water resources, the study of applying agricultural technologies was carried out in Behiera and Khafr El- Sheikh governorates. The study depends on effective extension activities which provide the farmers with the knowledge needed and teach them how to apply this knowledge’s. Extension efforts have been exerted to convince farmers that it is necessary to follow the agricultural practices which guide the use of water in irrigation. Among such activities were paying attention to the demonstration aggregates and fields to cultivate various crops where technologies are applied in order to increase production and guide to the use of water through the use of precession land levelling, long furrows, long borders, and planting dry berseem (as alternative to the traditional wet method), etc…
Also, to increase the educational effectiveness of the demonstration aggregates and fields, there are: The field days, the harvesting days, meetings, and field visits were made by researchers and extension workers.
Much attention has been made to evaluate the educational effect for such demonstration aggregates and fields carried out on winter season, including wheat, sugar beet, and clover (berseem) crops, and summer season crops, including cotton and rice to know the extent of the farmers knowledge of the technologies used for each crop, find out the growers attitudes towards practices of water management, farmers adoption of water management practices, farmers reasons for using too much water in irrigation, and their suggestions for controlling the use of irrigation water. Basicly, the analysis includes the process of learning by doing.
C) Description of difficulties encountered and lessons learned
No difficulties except the communication with colleagues in Morocco
C) Objectives:
Their main objective was to recognize the educational effect of the extension aggregates and fields of winter season crops (wheat and others) and summer crops in order to: 1. recognize some social and economical characteristics of the growers on the developed Canals in Behiera and Khafr El-Sheikh Governorates. 2. studying the educational effect of the demonstration aggregates and fields on the farmers. 3. estimate farmer’s adoption to farm water irrigation practices. 4. recognize the farmer’s attitudes towards guiding water irrigation practices. 5. recognize reasons of using too much water in irrigation by the growers and their sugge stions for good water management.
D) Description of any connections or interaction between your AIACC project and the preparation of national communications under the UNFCCC for countries relevant to your project.
At the present time, the analysis will focus on the following headings in the field based studies: Findings and recommendations will be explained in the first annual report.
1. Characteristics for growers: 2. Educational effects of the demonstration aggregates and fields: a. Growers knowledge about wheat, and summer crop practices b. Growers knowledge about water management practices 3. Adoption of water management practices: 4. Growers information resources about water management: 5. Growers attitudes towards practices of water management: 6. Growers reasons for using much water for irrigation and their suggestion concerning managing it:
With regard to Gharbia Governorate, the short questionnaire (prepared by Ana Iglesius and attached in appendix) was used to detect the farmer’s experiences with the wheat growing practices and evaluate the level of awareness with regard to the influence of climate variability as well as the adoption options for wheat and vegetables grown in the cropping pattern.
The analysis of the Gharbia Governorate of farmer’s questionnaire results will be included in the first annual report. The questionnaire format is included in appendix.
c. The following activities were done in this connection:
1. Monthly sessions on climate change impact and adaptation assessment in the agricultural sector and water resources were done. The Egyptian Case Study; Assessment of Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture and Water Needs was explained. Sessions were carried out at both, the CLAC and Soil, Water & Environment Research Institute (SWERI) Sites.
2. Completion of publishing a paper on “Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Egyptian agriculture and water needs. AGRO-ENVIRON 2002, 26-29 October 2002, Cairo, Egypt. Paper No.115/Oral.
3. Delta climate map. The Delta climate map is shown in the attached file, Figure 1. The Delta region is classified into three sub-regions; 1. Coastal zone, 2. Centric Delta zone and 3. East and West Delta zone. (Rijetma et al 1979). ET0 values included in the map were calculated by Penman Monteith method (CROPWAT5.7). Climatic data were obtained from the normal (FAO, 1984). Agroclimatological Data for Africa. Vol. 1. Countries North of the Equator.
4. Crop statistics Crop statistics including, productivity, crop area and total crop production values are listed in Tables 2 and 3.
Models: Empirical-Statistical analysis and simulation models will be used. Simulation models mainly DSSAT will be the tools for analysis and databases of historical climatic data, soils and crop management variables for Egypt, which will be used in the impacts assessment. Projected crop impacts and the impact of water shortage in the Nile Delta will be assessed according to future conditions derived form the scenarios formulation (GCMs/ MAGICC/SCENGEN)
Note: The Work plan for the first year is shown in Table (1) in appendix.
E) Description of tasks to be performed in the next eight-month period.
? Continue enhanceing scientific and technical capacity in countries in North Africa for evaluating the current situation and enhancing adaptive capacity in current and future conditions.
? Capitalization of the knowledge gained by the project will be synthesised and published for dissemination and training purposes.
? Enhancing agricultural water management responses' to scientific information on climate change
? Improving the capacity for scientists and stakeholders in North Africa by providing scientific advancement related to:
? Short-term climate risks and long-term climate change st ? Adaptive capacity in view of the environmental change projected for the 21 century ? Overall management strategies for improving the efficiency of land and water use
F) Anticipated difficulties in the next eight-month period
Communications with colleagues in Morocco
G) Attach any draft or final papers or other outputs of the project produced during the reporting period.
Appendix: First Year Work Plan: Table (1): Objective, Tasks and Deliverables
Objectives Tasks Deliverable Time Stakeholder ? Egyptian Case Study: - First year report 12 mo. engagement Climate maps; crop statistics; simulation - Contribution to WEB models; and survey analysis. site - Continuing contribution to the WEB site throughout the project time.
Table (2): *Major crops productivity (ton/fed), area (Mfed) and production (Mt) of Egypt in (2001). Crop Productivity (ton/ Area (Mfed) Yield (Mt) fed)** Wheat 2.671 2.341795 6.254583 Maize 3.436 1.773452 6.093578 Cotton 1.139 0.731095 5.284233 Sorghum 2.435 0.011650 0.028368 Barley 1.277 0.073554 0.093905 Rice 3.900 1.340270 5.226703 Faber bean 1.316 0.333693 0.439212 Lentil 0.705 0.005359 0.003779 Peanut 1.360 0.144790 0.187169 Clover (Berseem) Long season 28.248 1.934825 54.655160 Short “ 12.538 0.564191 7.074077 Sugar beet 20.035 0.142638 2.857728 Sugar cane 49.911 0142638 2.857728 Tomato 11.406 0.427937 4.880902 Onion (Single) 11.636 0.054001 0.628378 Intercropped 8.441 0.027418 0.231425 * Source: Agricultural Economic Research Bulletins (2001). ** One feddan = 0.42 hectare, Mt= Million tons, Mfed=Million fed
Table (3): *Major crops productivity (t/fed), area (Mfed) and production (Mt) of Delta Region in (2001).
Crop Productivity Area (Mfed) Yield (Mt) (ton/ fed)** Wheat 3.313 1.212773 2.732 Barley 1.620 0.030003 0.048610 Faba bean 1.339 0.241694 0.323582 Lentil 0.826 0.000425 0.000351 Berseem (permanent) (One cut) 27.602 1.267173 34.976812 ( for Seeds) 12.288 0.451979 5.554013 0.307 0.080727 0.024753 Sugar beet 19.669 0.133872 2.633119 Maize 3.551 0.947918 3.365877 Cotton 1.013 0.575132 0.582609 Rice 3.913 1.309289 5.122941 Tomato 13.72 0.054245 0.744287 Onion Dry, single 12.299 0.023447 0.288367 Dry,intercrp 8.454 0.023387 0.197707 For Seeds 0.156 0.000403 0.000063
* Source: Agricultural Economic Research Bulletins (2001). ** One feddan = 0.42 hectare
Tunisia Report
ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTH AFRICA FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER NEEDS
TUNISIAN SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT
NATIONAL COORDINATION INRGREF
JANUARY 2003
INSTITUTIONS INVOLVED
Name Fonction
- Institut National de Recherche en Génie - Raoudha Researcher Rural, Eaux et Forêts (INRGRF). - Mme Zitouna Rim Researcher
(National coordination) - Zrelli Jihène Technician
- Bachta Med Sal ah Academic professor - Institut National Agronomique de Tunis Researcher - Contract worker (1) (INAT). - Student Master
- Institut National de la Météorologie - Labban Yadh Engineer (INAT).
- Direction générale de la production agricole - Nafti Amel Engineer (DGPA).
- 4 Commissariat régionaux de développement - Different partners Engineers agricole (CRDA) - Extension agents
- Farmers - Not yet selected
Assessment of impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change: food production and water need
Summary describing the project activities for the first six months Introduction
1- Water resources and agriculture in Tunisia 1.1- Resources and water demand 1.2- National strategy of water management.
2- Cereals and olive trees in Tunisia. 3- A case study: The center region 4- Description of tasks performed and outputs produced. 4.1- Stakeholders engagement 4.2- Stakeholders intervention in the project 4.3- The methodology adopted 5- Impacts detection 5.1- Agro climatic characterization of Kairouan station 5.1.1- The Rainfall 5.1.2- The water balance 5.1.3- The temperature
5.2- Quantitative evaluation of climate variability impacts on crop production. Preliminary results. 5.2.1-Barley 5.2.2-Durum wheat
6- Socio-economic impacts 7- Linkages between climate information and scenarios and vulnerability 8- Description of tasks to be performed in the next eight-month period 9- Difficulties encountered in the past six month period. 10- Financial report .
BIBLIOGRAPHY
SUMMARY In Tunisia, although, 93% of cultivated areas are rainwater agriculture, irrigated ones are the biggest consumer of water. The local case study selected for Tunisia is the central region especially Sfax, Kairouan and Sidi Bouzid in the upper arid where the agriculture is mostly rainfed so it is the most vulnerable to predicted climate change .
In this region and within the framework of the project, the crops analyzed are cereals (durum wheat and barley) and olive trees in rainfed system . During the last six months of the project only barley and durum wheat have been considered. As for barley and durum wheat, crop production, sown area, harvested area and yield are extremely sensitive to high year to year weather fluctuations and to water deficits. Around 50 % of cereal production variation is explained by the rainfall variation and water deficit . A water deficit of
100mm in autumn leads to a deficit in cereal production of 3.4 million quintals. The olive trees support an annual water deficit of 50% or more. A prolonged drought causes damage to olive trees. However, the case study is not intended to be “representative” of all the systems found in Tunisia but it is among the very vulnerable agricultural systems. In the last six months, a database related to crop and climate data (rainfall and temperature) has been set up. Also, a bibliographical research related to the project topics in Tunisia is being built (see the bibliography below).
A statistical study for cereals in Kairouan region has been done and shows that sown areas , the ratio harvested area/sown area, the yield and the production are correlated with rainfall for barley and durum wheat. However the correlation coefficient varies from barley to wheat and varies with the different periods of the growing season.
INTRODUCTION
The agriculture sector has been identified as the most vulnerable sector to climatic change in the Maghreb countries where agriculture plays an important economic and social role. Agriculture in Tunisia is mainly extensive in spite of efforts undertaken for its intensification because of climatic risks and scarcity of water resources. The main speculations undertaken under rainfed conditions are mainly cereals and fruit crops including olive trees (Figure 1).
Trees cultivation
Cereals
Fallow
Others cultures
Figure 1:Distribution of agricultural land use in Tunisia (Atlas des sols tunisiens. Mtimet. 1999).
1- WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE IN TUNIS IA 1.1- Resources and water demand Tunisia belongs to the hydraulic poor countries. In most of the Tunisian regions, rains are insufficient and irregular. The average rainfall is 35 billions m3/year. Otherwise, the global water resources amount to 4.8 billion m3/year (2.7 billion m3 surface water and 2.1 billion m 3 groundwater) (Lebdi Fethi, 2002). In addition to the problem of the scarcity of water, Tunisia is confronted with a problem of quality since the most of water resources have medium to mediocre quality. Salinity is often high. Indeed, more than 30% of available water contain more than 3g/l salt. The surface water has a salinity ranging from 1 to 5g/l. This salinity varies from year to year depending on rainfall and varies in same year depending on the season. The salinity of groundwater increases from the north to the south and is ranged between 1 and 7g/l. Currently, the water demand is about 2.5 Billons m3. Irrigation uses 83% of the available resources, industry about 5%, potable consumption 11% and tourism only 1%. This request can not be satisfied because water resources are rare and insufficient. The expected climatic changes, the increase in population, the urbanization and the industrial development as well as the intensification of the irrigation constantly increase water demand. At present, the volume of available water (underground and surface water) per year and per habitant is es timated about
450m 3. This value will reach 315m3/year/habitant in 2030 (Mougou et al. 2002). Although, 93% of cultivated areas are
rainwater agriculture, irrigated ones are the biggest consumer of water. In addition, the irrigated surfaces in Tunisia as in all the developing countries will necessary increase. In 2000 (Revue de l’Agriculture, 2001), 368.000 ha were irrigated and volume of water irrigation was about 2100 Mm3.
Irrigated areas are expected to rise to nearly 400.000 ha by 2010, with a consequent increase in irrigation demand to a total of 2140 Mm3 (Lebdi, 2002).
1.2- National strategy of water management. In order to satisfy the water requirements, a national strategy of mobilization and management of all the resources has been implemented in Tunisia. Within the framework of this strategy several policies were established namely:
- mobilization, storage and transfer of the resources ; - water saving in irrigation, industry and other use;
- use of the non-conventional resources (waste water and saline water) especially for the irrigated sector; - desalinization of water. For the irrigation, the largest water consumer, actions aiming a rational use of the irrigation water and water economy in the farm field were set up. Among these methods we can quote the economic irrigation methods (drip and sprinkler irrigation) which allowed an important water saving (from 25 to 30%) when they were well controlled. The assessment of available water resources is in excess of the demand predicted for 2010, namely 2690 Mm3 and exploitable conventional resources of 3100 Mm3. The surplus is about 400 Mm3. Beyond 2010 there is a predicted deficit in water supply. In 2030, the total demand of 2760 M m3 will be greater than exploitable conventional resources of 2732 Mm3.
This means that non-conventional water will need to play a more significant role in future demand. Non-agriculture water demand is expected to rise in the future. While the volume destines to agriculture should decrease (Table 1).
Table 1: Evolution of the water demand relative part of sectors 1996 2010 2020 2030 Drinking water 11,5% 14,2% 16,1% 17,7% Water of irrigation 83,7% 79,6% 76,6% 73,5% Tourist water 0,7% 1,2% 1,3% 1,5%
Industrial water 4,1% 5,0% 6,0% 7,3% Source: Ministry of Agriculture Environment, Hydraulic resources – Eau 21 edition 2000
After 2010, increases in irrigated areas are expected but at a slower growth rate. The volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture is likely to decrease and it is expected that agriculture will release 5% of the volume of water allocated to it in
2010 by 2030 resulting from improvements in irrigation efficiency (Table 2).
Table 2: Water demand projections for agriculture up to 2030 (m 3/ha) Years 1996 2010 2015 2030 Rate of increase 1996-2010 2010-2030
North 5300 5000 4801 4249 -0.42 -1.81
Center 6000 4200 3994 3435 -2.52 -1.00 South 11000 9500 8809 7022 -1.04 -1.50 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Environment, Hydraulic resources DG/ETH
2- CEREALS AND OLIVE TREES IN TUNISIA. Since the beginning of the eighties, Tunisian economic policy attributes a bigger role to agriculture. Cereals are an important product in Tunisia. They are considered as the main production both for the family needs and for symbolic value. For Tunisians, cereals are very important part of diet contributing about 70% of the calories and 40% of the proteins. It presents about 30% of the total ploughed land. This sector has significant influence on the national economy. It contributes to the food security of the country and plays a role in industrial and development stimulation policy. A large part of the farming was used by cereals activity. In Tunisia, there are private and public sectors for cereals production. Farms size, farming systems and agricultural practices are characterized by a great variability. Rainwater cereals occupy about 97% (Table 3) of cultivated areas and therefore are vulnerable to climate variability and mainly to water deficit.
Table 3: Rate of rainfed agriculture in Tunisia (1993)
Irrigated agriculture Rainfed agriculture Rate of rainfed (1000 ha) (1000 ha) (1000 ha) Cereals 34 1646 97
Fruit trees 130 1835 93 Vegetables 108 42 28
Parcours 23 285 92
At present , cereal production is not enough for the needs of the country. It is also very variable because it depends essentially on rainfall (Figure2).
18
16 14 12 10
Q/ha 8 6
4 2 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Years Durum wheat Bread wheat Barley
Figure 2: Cereals yield in arid and semi arid Tunisian regions
For the government policy, cereals and mainly wheat production are considered as a vital production. T he principal objective is to reduce the deficit and the production variability by using new agricultural technologies and by a better
understanding of wheat response to environmental variability (Latiri, 1994). The result of this national strategy related to cereal production aims to an upward trend of cereals yields (Figure 3).
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000- 1990- 1980- 1970- 1960- 1950- 1940- 1930- 1920- 1991 1981 1971 1961 1951 1941 1931 1921 1911
Barley Bread wheat Durum wheat
Figure 3: Cereals productivity in Tunisia. Average of decade from 1911 to 2000.
Olive tree has a great adaptation capacity to different climates and may also valorize dry regions. Nevertheless, it remains sensible to water deficit . This Mediterranean tree is able to support drought by strong osmotic pressure of its root system which is able to profit of low humidity by its capacit y of closing stomata to decrease evapotranspiration when the air power evaporating increases .
However, prolonged drought is damaging to this crop . T he olive tree can support about 50% of yearly water deficit; if the deficit is maintained for a second year, the olive tree endures the drought essentially in marginal zones.
Olive tree is more sensible to drought in the center and the south of the country (Figure 4).
600000 450 400 500000 350 400000 300
250 300000 200 rainfull (mm) Production (t) 200000 150
100 100000 50 0 0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 olive production oil olive production rainfull
Figure 4: Olive production in Sfax (1975-2001).
3- A CASE STUDY: THE CENTER REGION In Tunisia, the center region is a climatic transition zone between Mediterranean zone and the Sahara region. It is the most vulnerable region because of high climatic variability (Figure 5). In this region, water deficit and drought represent a permanent risk for rainfed agriculture. Rainfall is characterized by a very important year to year variability and by its scarcity; consequently, production is variable.
The severely dry years (deficit > 50%) and drought persistence are more frequent in the south and the center than in the North (Figure 6). The temperatures are moderate; however, very hot conditions are frequent and may occur from May to September. The average temperature in August is about 30°C and a maximum temperature can reach 45°C. Maximum temperature reaches 40.7°C in May and in February. These high temperatures may affect cereal production when they occur in the growing season by increasing the evaporation rate. An efficient management of water resources, a genetic selection of adapted varieties, the improvement of new agricultural technologies and the implementation of efficient agronomy practices could contribute to reduce a negative effect of climate variability and future climate change.
CARTE BIOCLIMATIQUE DE LA TUNISIE
D'après la carte éditée à une subvention du C.N.R.S.Paris,FRANCE accordée à M. Mohamed Abdelhamid NABLI,Professeur à la Faculté des Sciences de Tunis. TUNISIE Bizerte
Sejnane Mateur El Haouaria Tabarka Tunis Ain Draham Kélibia Beja
Le Kef Siliana
Maktar Sousse Monastir KairouanKairouan Thala Mahdia
El Jem Kasserine Sidi Bou Bouzid Zid
Sfax
Gafsa
Nafta Houmt Souk Tozeur Gabès
Kébili Matmata Douz Medenine
Ben Gardane
Tataouine
LEGENDE
Remada Humide supérieur Borj Bourguiba Humide inférieur Sub-humide
Semi-aride supérieur et moyen
Semi-aride inférieur
Aride supérieur
Aride inférieur
Saharien supérieur Saharien inférieur Echelle 0 km 100 km Dressé et dessiné par Fitouri Mustapha I.N.R.G.R.E.F.11/2002
Figure 5: Tunisia bioclimatic map.
Very dry Very rainy 15% 17% Rainy 12%
Dry 28% Normal 28%
Figure 6: Typology of rainfall in Sfax (1901-1990).
4-DESCRIPTION OF TASKS PERFORMED AND OUTPUTS PRODUCED. 4.1- Stakeholders engagement 4.2- Stakeholders intervention in the project In Tunisia, the Stakeholders involved have different intervention levels: from small farmers to policy makers at a national level. The figure 7 below summarizes a participatory approach used in the Tunisia project. All stakeholders, except the meteorological partners belong to the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Hydraulic Resources. T he researchers team is already actively in contact with all project partners. Thus, this participatory approach seems very easy to be controlled and permits regional and central planners to reduce the devastating effects of climate variability in our region. How Tunisian stakeholders interfere in this participatory method and how can they play an active role in the project?
Farmers Main beneficiaries
Extension service
Regional Policy makers Project (CRDA) (Researchers team)
Technical Policy makers DGPA, UTAP, DGRE Decision levels
National commissions Central Policy makers End of the project (Ministry of agriculture)
Final report (results)
Figure 7: Different levels of stakeholders in Tunisia project
Five types of potential participants referring to policy makers, scientists, administrators and managers have been defined . These participants are: - Farm ers. - Extension services depending on regional development services (CRDA: Commissariat Régional de Développement Agricole).
- Development services with regional technical policy makers: In the project, the researchers are continually in relation with CRDA of Kaiouan, CRDA of Kasserine, CRDA of Sfax and CRDA of Sidi Bouzid (Figure 14).
- Central policy makers. - Researchers.
? Farms play many roles in this process by giving information within interviews or questionnaires formulated by researchers in collaboration with extension services. Farmers express the real problems relating to agricultural production and are users of final results of research and policy decisions.
?The extension services receive information and results from regional development services and researchers. They interfere in giving simplified technical advice to users by the means of information days and demonstrations individual visits.
?The development sector has a functional participation at central and regional levels. It interferes in making decisions and information dissemination. Stakeholders of this sector contribute to the conception, the study and the follow up of project. They enable farmers to express their real needs and priorities, allowing problems to be defined and solved efficiently.
?The central policy maker plays the principal role and maintains the control of final decision. It combines information from different levels , data from different levels of process and evaluates final report.
?Researchers are actors of project execution. They identify different objectives and follow-up research actions. They interfere by analyzing information and results. So, they must be very clear about farmers needs.
?National commissions have a consultative role and interfere in the choice of research programs according to national priorities.
4.3- The methodology adopted a- The survey analysis for small and big farmers through the extension service
The questionnaire is intended to small and big farmers, using over 50% of total areas in Tunisia. In Tunisia about 80% of farmers are small farmers and their cultivated areas is less than 5 hectares. The survey from farmers through extension services can help the researchers team to evaluate qualitatively water deficit impact and high temperature impact on production. The objective of the survey is to help researchers team:
- identify the farmers strategies; - evaluate adaptive management options for better utilization of rainfall; - compare farmers strategies with strategies allowing the use of rainfall with a maximal water efficiency in order to
secure a minimum production for the farmers; - identify the opportunities and difficulties in the actual policy making process; - plan the meeting programs with extension services;
- disseminate the results at the end of the project.
b- Regional meeting with regional policy maker c- Reports for central policy makers
5- IMPACTS DETECTION The project will enhance the ability of rainfed cereals and olive trees to interact with climate variations and will increase adaptation capacity to actual climate variability and predicted climate change. To attend this objective within the framework of the project we have: - to define the state-of -the-art in climate variability in Tunisia. - to define the state-of-the-art in impact detection of climate on agricultural production in Tunisia and especially in the center region. - to assess the correlation between climate (rainfall, temperature) and rainfed production of cereals and olive trees. For this quantitative assessment, a preliminary statistical analysis has been done using observed meteorological data from agrometeorological station and production data related to barley and durum wheat in Kairouan.
For studying the impact of climate variability on crop production, it is important to include a database allowing the calculation of water balance under rainfed conditions. * Climatic data: minimum and maximum temperatures, humidity, wind speed and global radiation or solar radiation used to determinate crop evapotranspiration. * Climatic data: rainfall and temperature to calculate climatic variability. * Crop characteristics: crop coefficient, growing period, cultivars yield potential. As a first step of the study and during the first six months allocated for the project, we didn’t include all these parameters; we only evaluated the variability of production according to rainfall. An evaluation of the rainfall impact on yield, on production and on sown areas is proposed.
5.1- Agro climatic characterization of Kairouan station A statistical analysis of observed climate-agriculture data has been used to understand and evaluate the interactions of observed rainfall variability and production. In the first step, we have used data from Kairouan, in order to evaluate how rainfed cereals production interacts with annual and monthly rainfall variability.
In this evaluation, we have considered: - Daily rainfall and daily minimum and maximum temperatures from 1950 to 2000 at Kairouan station to show the trend of rainfall and temperature in the next fifty years.
- Four meteorological stations (Sbikha, Hafouz, Ouslatia and Kairouan) are used to calculate average monthly and annual rainfall in "Kairouan region", from 1979 to 2000. - We considered for our study the production data, the cultivated areas data, sown and non harvested areas data and yield data from 1980 to 2000 for barley and durum wheat under rainfed conditions.
5.1.1-Rainfall distribution
The Rainfall date related to Kairouan station from 1951 to 2002 (Figure 8) show an important year to year variation with a standard deviation of 114 mm. The normal annual rainfall (1961-2002) is 298 mm, the maximum and minimum recorded for the studied period are respectively 624 and 111 mm.
650 Kairouan Station
550 Everage rainfall (1961-1990)
450
350
250 Annual Rainfall
150
50 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Figure 8: Annual rain distribution in Kairouan (1961-2002).
For Kairouan, monthly rain distribution (Figure 9) shows that low precipitations are recorded during summer “June, July and August”. A high monthly variability is recorded in Kairouan
450 mean rainfall 400 maximum rainfall 350 minimum rainfall 300 250 Rainfall 200 150 100 50 0
April May June July March October January August February September November December
Figure 9: Monthly rain distribution in Kairouan (1961-2002).
5.1.2- The water balance
Referring to durum wheat aiming a yield of 45- 60 qx/ha, water requirements are between 1.1 and 1.2 mm/day in the beginning of the growing season and increase in the last decade of January to reach a maximum in April (Table 4). Table 4: Decadal wheat water requirements, mm/day (Mougou and Henia. 1996) Month Decade s Wheat water requirements (mm/day) November N2 1.2 N3 1.2 December D1 1.2 D2 1.2 D3 1.1 January J1 1.1 J2 1.1 J3 1.6 February F1 1.9 F2 1.9 F3 2.0 Marsh M1 1.6 M2 3.0 M3 3.0 April A1 4.0 A2 4.0 A3 3.8
Referring to the study mentioned in the table above, the total water requirement of durum wheat is 361mm from the 2nd decade of November to the 3rd decade of April. This total exceeds the average of rainfall during this period at Kairouan station which is 164 mm (Tableau 5).
Tableau 5: Total rainfall distribution during the wheat growing season (1961-1990) at Kairouan station (Mougou and Henia. 1996) Average Min imum Rainfall Maximum Rainfall Standard deviation Variation coefficient
rainfall (mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) 164 60 382 78.7 48%
The decadal climatic water balance for wheat in Kairouan station has been studied by Mougou and Henia (1996) for the period 1961- 1990. The climatic water balance is the result of the differen ce between rainfall and wheat evapotransiration. Table 6 shows that the deficit water balance in the growing season occurs with a frequency equal to 97%. The average and the maximum water deficit are respectively 153mm and 310mm for a water requirement of 361 mm. Concerning the duration of water deficit, the study shows that water deficit in Kairouan can occur during 16 successive decades.
Table 6: Relative water deficit during wheat growing season (1961 – 1990) at Kairouan station water deficit frequency Mean water deficit Max water deficit D = 50% ETR 97% 153mm 310mm 44.8%
D=50% ETR: growing season frequency with water deficit more or equal to 50% of wheat water requirements. Moreover, water deficit can have a negative effect on wheat growing if it occurs during a long period. The table below show s that the water deficit for wheat in Kairouan may occur during 17 successive decades (Table 7).
Table 7: Duration of water deficit during wheat growing season (1961-1990) at Kairouan station (Mougou et Henia. 1996) Maximum 2 3 4 5 6 Duration of Duration 1decade successive successive successive successive successive > 6 decades deficit of deficit decades decades decades decades decades Frequency ÎÔ decades 18% 9% 17% 13% 11% 11% 21% of deficit In Kairouan as it is the case for all rainfed agriculture in the arid and semi arid of Tunisia, water requirements are rarely satisfied in rainfed conditions and an irrigation supply or a better management of efficient agricultural technologies allow to a lowest level of production avoiding drift from th e lands.
5.1.3- Temperature distribution
The preliminary statistical study of mean, maximum and average temperature data related to Kairouan station from 1951 to 2002 (Figure 10) shows that the increase of temperature during the last 50 years seems clear, it is statistically
significant and it ap pears an increase of 0.29°C/10 years. If we look deeper and analyze minimum temperature and maximum temperature we will see a highly significant increase of minimum temperature about 0.43°C/years (Figure 11) and
non significant increase for maximum temperature.
22 y = 0.0293x - 38.232 R2 = 0.4136 21
20
19
Kairouan station Mean Annual Temperature 18 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 years
Figure 10: Mean annual temperature evolution in Kairouan station (1950-2000).
16 y = 0.0431x - 71.913 R2 = 0.6302 15
14 Annual Minimum Temperature
Figure 1Î: Minimum annual temperature evolution in Kairouan station (1950-2000). This temperature increase could affect photosynthesis, vegetative development of the plant, cycle length and consequently yield. The whole plant metabolism could change . For agronomists it is important to analyze the impact of temperature increase and to consider this information for genetic selection of cultivars and development of new agricultural technologies.
In Kairouan the effect of high temperature in this region can be worsened by a high solar radiation (Maximum daily solar radiation=1965hours) and high evaporation (Average annual evaporation. = 1390mm).
Among climatic parameters that could be intensified by a climate change and affect negatively the yiel d in Kairouan region is sirocco. The mean number of sirocco days per year recorded between 1975 and 1995 is 41. The minimum and maximum days are respectively 13 and 60 (Mougou et Henia. 1998). Sirocco occurs between May and September and the phenomena could be important in the beginning of the spring season. When sirocco happens at the grains growth stage of cereals, an irreversible lost of water can be produced in non irrigated conditions.
5.2- Quantitative evaluation of climate variability impacts on crop production. Prel iminary results
5.2.1- Barley
Cultivated areas
Barley cultivated areas at Kairouan region are about 64670 ha, the standard deviation between the sown areas from 1980 to 2000 is 20500 ha; the minimum and maximum registered during these years are respectively 26000 and 97000 ha (Figure
12).
120
100 ha )
1000 80
60
40 y = 26.003Ln(x) - 50.349 20 R2 = 0.5434 Barley sown areas
0 0 50 100 150 200 250
October December Rainfall (mm)
Figure 12: Distribution of barley sown areas according to rainfall in Kairouan Harvested areas
In rainfed barley, the sown area is not totally harvested. The rat io of harvested areas varies year to year and depends on autumn rainfall. For the considered period, t he minimum and maximum rates of harvested areas are respectively 0 and 0.98 %.
The rat io harvested area/sown area is highly correlated to October-May rainfall (Figure 1Ð).
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Barley 0.4 0.3 y = 0.7763Ln(x) - 3.5925 0.2 R2 = 0.6437
harvested areas 0.1 0.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 October-May Rainfall (mm)
Figure 13: Distribution of barley harvested areas according to rainfall in Kairouan
Yield of harvested area
The mean yield of barley at Kairouan region is 6.43qx/ha, the minimum and maximum yield registered are respectively 0 and
15qx/ha. The yield is highly correlated with October-April, November-April and March rainfall but the highest correlation is found with December-Mars rainfall; It has a linear shape with R²=0.73 (Figure 14). For an increase of 10mm in rainfall between the period from December to March, there is a barley yield increase of 0.54 qx/ha.
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 y = 0.054x + 0.1036 2 Barley Yield 4 R = 0.7323 2 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 December March Rainfall (mm)
Figure 14: Distribution of barley harvested areas according to rainfall in Kairouan Production
The average of barley production in Kairouan region is 356000qx, the minimum and maximum production varies between 0 and 1093000qx.
The barley production is highly correlated with October-May rainfall (R²=0.85) (Figure 15).
1400 qx ) 1200 y = 3.3803x - 455.91 2 1000 1000 R = 0.8541
800
600
400
Barley production 200
0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 October may rainfall (mm)
Figure 1Ò : Distribution of barley production according to rainfall
5.2.2- Durum wheat
Cultivated areas
The mean of durum wheat cultivated areas between 1980 and 2000 is 65857 hectares, the minimum and maximum recorded are respectively 24000 and 89000 ha. The best correlation with rainfall is found with the period of November- December: R²=0.49; R=0.70 it is statistically highly significant (Figure 16).
100
Ha ) 90 80 1000 70 60 50 40 30 y = 16.325Ln(x) + 5.3855 2 20 R = 0.4911 10 0 Durum Wheat sown reas 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 November December Rainfall (mm)
Figure 16: Distribution of cultivated durum wheat areas according to rainfall Harvested areas
The average of harvested areas represents 63% of sown areas which is 45429 ha. The sown areas could represent 99% of harvest areas. In dry conditions, all harvested areas could be lost. The rate of harvested areas is highly correlated to October-
May rainfall.
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Durum Wheat 0.2 y = 0.7779Ln(x) - 3.5781 R2 = 0.5993 0.1 harvested 0.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 October May Rainfall (mm)
Figure 17: Distribution of durum wheat harvested areas according to rainfall in Kairouan
Yield of harvested area
The Durum wheat mean yield is 6.8qx/ha, it varies between 0 and 17qx/ha for rainfed agriculture. The yield is highly correlated with December-March rainfall; R²=0.74 (Figure 18).
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 y = 0.0544x + 0.439 4 R2 = 0.7464 Durum Wheat Yield 2 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 December March Rainfall
Figure 18: Distribution of durum wheat yield according to rainfall in Kairouan
Production
Durum wheat mean production at Kairouan region is 375095qx. It varies between 0 and 1138000qx. This variation is mainly due to dry conditions that lead to an increase of harvested areas and yield. For the durum wheat, the production and the yield are highly correlated with rainfall particularly with October May rainfall;
R²=0.75 (Figure 1Ö).
1400
1200
qx 1000
1000 800
600 Durum Wheat 400
production y = 3.2741x - 411.34 R2 = 0.7512 200
0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 October May Rainfall(mm)
Figure 1Ö: Distribution of durum wheat production according to rainfall in Kairouan
6- SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS During the first six months, the socio-economic aspect has not been started on.
During the next eight months, the socio economic partners will identify the current situation of selected region by using statistical surveys. The surveys will provide information concerning: - Production technology.
- Observed agricultural production system . - Indicators of production variability linked to climate (rainfall and temperature). - Impacts of farm income: The results of the preliminary evaluation of impacts of climate variability on production will be analyzed in collaboration with socio economic partners.
The climate scenarios will be directly linked to the socio economic scenarios. The socio-economic team will set up a database related to the literature review on risk aversion of farmers.
7- LINKAGES BETWEEN CLIMATE INFORMATION AND SCENARIOS AND VULNERABILITY 7.1- Trends of human and natural resources evolution In 2025, the population in Tunisia will reach 13.5 Millions and we could have a downturn in natural resource: water, soil, and forest. This limitation will have a big repercussion on the agricultural production. Diagrams 20A and 20B show that the adaptation to this situation is necessary in the future. Among reasons of the natural resource limitation, we can mention the predicted climatic change to which the Tunisian agriculture is very vulnerable.
Millions A
Population
Potential of the agricultural areas
Loss
Agricultural production if population Millions B stops at 13.5 Millions Potential of the fertile areas
Loss of areas
Actual agricultural production
Figures 20: Trends of human and natural resources evolution (in Mtimet, 1999) A: Population / agricultural areas. B: Production / t/ha / fruitful areas.
7.2- Regional Climate projection over North Africa.
Although General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent the main features of the global atmospheric circulation reasonably well, their performance in reproducing regional climatic details is rather poor. This is particularly true for variables such as precipitation and surface wind speed. With respect to the simulation of regional climates GCMs suffer from several limitations, including lack of accurate surface condition data, inability of model parameterizations to model fine scales, and computational time required for high resolution runs. Hence, most GCMs are run at relatively coarse spatial resolutions generally greater than 2.0? for both latitude and longitude (>200km for middle latitudes). The direct result of the poor spatial resolution of GCMs is a serious mismatch of scale between the available climate change scenarios and the scale of interest to climate data users. As a result there is a need to develop tools for downscaling GCM predictions of climate change to regional and local scales.
Two downscaling approaches can generally be use: - Semi empirical approaches using the fact that GCMs are good predictors of large-scale variables. The approach involves relating these large scale parameters to historical observations of the surface parameter of interest. The required transfer function can be developed using a wide range of modeling tools such as linear regression, classification and regression tree analysis, or neural networks. Regional climate model have a similar description than GCM associated to a much higher resolution, typically near 50 km. IT cover a smaller area (domain), typically a 5000 km square. It is “driven” at its boundaries by simulations or predictions of large scale climate from GCM.
- The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, from the Met Office (United Kingdom) has developed a portable regional climate model called PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate and Impacts Studies).
If we project to use the PRECIS model, it can be freely available for as. However we need a scientific supply from the Hadley Centre. It could be necessary to plan a training course on its use. This can instruct on the advantages of the model, how it can be used, and also on limitations of all climate models.
In order to share experiences on "climate scenarios" and to implement better collaboration between scientists from north Mediterranean countries and others countries, a short training on "climate scenarios for the North Africa region" has been proposed by the partner from the National Institute of Meteorology. The financial cost of the course could be shared between Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco. The details (timing, participant s…….) of this training could be discussed with the Egyptian and Moroccan team.
8- DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED IN THE NEXT EIGHT -MONTH PERIOD - Impact detection for cereals and olive trees in the different selected regions in the center of the country (Kasserine, Sidi Bouzid and Sfax). - Selection of farmers that will be involved in the project with regional policy makers and extension services - Dissemination of questionnaires for the farmers (See socio economic aspect in Par. 6). - Enrichment of database related to crop (durum wheat and barley) and climate data (rainfall and temperature for the different sites that will be considered).
- Enrichment of bibliographical research related to the project topics in Tunisia. - Inventory of current (A national strategies) - Assessment of adaptation methods in the context of climate change predicted taking in account different future scenarios for North Africa (Par 7.2)
9- DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED IN THE PAST SIX MONTH PERIOD.
The delay in the payment of the budget was constraining. Indeed it was impossible to plan for traveling inside the country in order to lead investigations. The Tunisian budget will be deposited in an account in the UNDP Tunis Office. It is not yet deposited because of the necessary official procedures to open an account in the UNDP Tunis office.
10- FINANCIAL REPORT. Estimated Expenses for Estimated Expenses for OBJECT OF EXPENDITURE Subsequent 8-Month Subsequent 8-Month Period (USD) Period (Local Currency)
PERSONNEL 1515.15 2000 1 Contract worker
MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES 1000 1320
EQUIPMENT Computer for INRGREF 1363.63 1800 Computer for INM (Meteorology) 1363.63 1800
COMPUTER SERVICES 500 660
Cost of management budget by UNDP office 1590 2098.8
Documentation 757.7 1000
Travelling inside the country: Meeting 757.7 1000
Documentations, computer programs 800 1056
Travelling inside the country: Inquiry 1000 1320
Regional training on climate scenarios 2. 4000 5280
INDIRECT COSTS 114.9 151.7
Indirect costs 162.5 214.5
Total budget 2002 already deposited in Cairo 7462.5 9850.5
Total budget 2002 not yet deposited in Cairo 7462.5 9850.5
1 : T he name of the contractual worker will be determined later. 2: The training on climate scenarios is proposed by INM and INRGREF and will be discussed with Egyptian and Moroccan partners
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bchir B., and El Kamel J., 1993. Statistiques climatiques de la Tunisie (1970-89) Institut National de la Météorologie. Bousnina A., 1997. Le climat de Sfax. Laboratoire de climatologie, Faculté des Sciences Humaines et Sociales Tunis et Altair Editions.
Chehida-Gana A., Elloumi M., Gara M. and Latiri-Souki K., 1991. Développement agricole et politique céréalière : éléments pour l’analyse de l’agriculture de la région de Zaghouan. Annales de l’Institut National de la recherche Agronomique de Tunisie. Numéro spécial vol 64- 1991. pp:17-87. Eau 21, 2000. Stratégie du secteur de l’eau en Tunisie - A long terme 2030. Rapport final/Ministère de l’Agriculture Ed 2000. Henia L., 1993. Climat et bilans de l’eau en Tunisie. Essai de régionalisation climatique par les bilans hydriques. Faculté des Sciences Humaines et Sociales de Tunis, Deuxième série : Géographie Volume XXVI, Publications de l’Université de Tunis I. Latiri-Souki K., 1994. Analysis of the effects of water and nitrogen supply on the yield and growth of Durum Wheat under semi-arid conditions in Tunisia. PH. D. Thesis, University of Reading. Latiri-Souki K. and Aubry C., 1991. Les céréales dans le semi-aride: potentialités, variation et contraintes. Annales de l’Institut National de la recherche Agronomique de Tunisie. Numéro spécial vol 64-1991.pp :189-236. Lebdi F., 2002. Irrigation advisory services in Tunisia. FAO /Ministère de l’Agriculture –Hammamet. Mougou R. and Henia L., 1996. La sécheresse agro-climatique en Tunisie : cas de la culture du blé. Actes du colloque international organisé par le GREVACHOT Tunis, 8-10décembre 1994 Variabilité du climat et stratégies d’adaptation humaines en Tunisie. Université de Tunis I, 1996.
Mougou R. et Henia L., 1998. CONTRIBUTION A L’ETUDE DES PHENOMENES A RISQUES EN TUNISIE. CAS DU SIROCCO. Les Publications de l’Association Internationale de Climatologie. Volume 9. Mougou R., Rejeb S. and Lebdi F., 2002. The Role of –Tunisian GENDER ISSUES- in Water Resources Management and Irrigated Agriculture. The first Regional Conference on "Perspectives on Water Cooperation: Challenges, Constraints and Opportunities". Workshop on Gender and Water Management in the Mediterranean. Cairo- Egypt. October. 2002. Mtimet A., 1999. Atlas des sols tunisiens. République Tunisienne Ministère de l’Agriculture. Projet RAB/94/G31, 1998. Changements climatiques et ressources en eau dans les pays du Maghreb Algérie-Maroc- Tunisie, Enjeux et perspectives. Service Météorologie Nationale, 1967. Climatologie de la Tunisie. Normales et statistiques diverses. Sakiss N. et al., 1994. La pluviométrie en Tunisie a-t-elle changé depuis 2000 ans ? Recherche de tendance et de cycles dans les séries pluviométriques Sakiss N. et al., 1991. La pluviométrie en Tunisie
Morocco Report
47
? Didn’t received.
48
Spain Report
49 ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTH AFRICA: FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER RESOURCES
Ayman F. Abou Hadid, Egypt Project Coordinator and Principal Investigator Raoudha Mougou, Tunisia Abdallah Mokssit, Morocco Ana Iglesias, Spain and USA
20 Februa ry 2003
Progress Report Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) Program
A) Summary of project activities during the past six months (200 words or less)
During this period the North Africa project activities included research, participation in meeting, and linkages with National activities.
The research focused on:
1. Stakeholder Engagement. We have defined the linkages of the project with the stakeholders and synthesis activities. In each country we have identified the key stakeholders in each level. The main direct focus will be at the farmer’s level. A prototype survey is being revised by members of the project team and translated into French and Arabic.
2. Impacts detection. The team is developing the database and GIS integration of climate, land use, and agricultural variables. Time series of variables and correlations are being analysed.
The project team has participated in the AIACC workshops, North Africa project meetings, and National Communications.
There were no main difficulties encountered during this period.
50
A presentation of the project developments during the 2003 World Water Congress (October, Spain) is planed.
51 B) Tasks and Outputs during the past six months.
Tasks and Outputs:
1. Stakeholder Engagement We have defined the linkages of the project with the stakeholders and synthesis activities. Figure 1 shows the overall structure. In each country we have identified the key stakeholders in each level. The main direct focus will be at the farmer’s level. A prototype survey is being revised by members of the project team and translated into French and Arabic (see section G).
Figure 1. Linkages of the project with stakeholders and synthesis activities.
2. Impacts detection
The first step is the database development and GIS integration. The main databases include: Climate, Land Use, and Agricultural variables. Figure 1 shows the meteorological stations that we have
52 included in the analysis with time series of temperature and precipitation and the location of the Case Studies. Precipitation has decreased significantly in many sites in the region. Figure 2 shows as an example the analysis of the time series of precipitation in the Settat, the Case Study site in Morocco.
Figure 1. Meteorological stations and location of the Case Studies.
53 Figure 2. Analysis of the time series of rainfall in Settat (Morocco).
Figure 3 shows the agro-ecological areas in Tunisia. The database of agricultural variables is being created at two geographical scales: national and case study. The agricultural database includes production and economic variables for cereals, olive trees, and some selected horticultural crops. Figure 4 shows a time series of the productivity of cereal crops in Tunisia with and without irrigation. The figure shows the large decrease in productivity in the drought years during the period. The correlation between dryland cereal productivity and rainfall in the case study region of Tunisia is 0.8.
54
Figure 3. Agro-ecological zones in Tunisia.
Figure 4. Irrigated and dryland cereal productivity in Tunisia.
55 Meetings:
AIACC Project Development Workshop: Development and Application of Scenarios in Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessments 15-26 April 2002, Norwich, UK (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia).
AIACC Project Development Workshop: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation 3-14 June 2002, Trieste, Italy (Third World Academy of Sciences).
Project Internal Meeting: Casablanca 5 – 9 October 2002. Participation of representatives of the Direction de la Meteorologie National (Morocco), M. Medany (Egypt), A. Iglesias (Spain) and N. Ward (USA). Discussion of the stakeholder analysis in relation to the project.
Related Research:
Egypt: Dr. Abou-Hadid and Dr.Medany are preparing for new research papers and supervising more than 7 Ph.D. and Ms.C. thesis related to climate change which considered as future input to AIACC project.
Spain, Morocco and USA: NOAA/OGP project development.
C) Difficulties encountered and lessons learned
No major difficulties were encountered.
D) Connections or interaction between the AIACC North Africa project and the preparation of national communications under the UNFCCC
National Communication – Egypt: Prof. Abou-Hadid and Dr. Medany assisted in first National Communication as President and CEO and Minister's Bureau Manager, Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs, respectively. Both remain Steering Committee Members and will participate in further National Communications.
Linkages between the Egypt National Communications and the AIACC project: The results of the AIACC North Africa Project will be included in the National Communications of Egypt. Prof. Abou-Hadid provides updated information to H.E. Dr. Riad, Minister of Ministry of State for
56 Environmental Affairs, Dr. El-Hamady, Dean of Environmental Research and Studies Institute, Ain- Shams University and Dr. Eissa, General Manager of Information Dept., Egyptian Meteorology Authority (EMA). Also Prof. Abou-Hadid is the General Manager of Arid Land Agricultural Research Unit (ALARU).
E) Tasks to be performed in the next eight-month period
Research:
1. Survey to the stakeholders at the farmer’s level. 2. Impacts detection. Continue with the analysis of climate -agriculture relationships. 3. Evaluation of adaptation methods. Based on the survey, develop a set of strategies adaptation strategies to be tested. The evaluation will take place at two temporal scales (current and future) and two spatial scales (local farm-level) and regional North Africa level. At each scale, the following questions will be considered: effectiveness, rate of adoption, constraints of adoption including risk.
Projected Meetings:
AIACC Africa Regional Open Meeting and Workshop. March 10, 2003: Open Meeting; March 11- 13: Regional Workshop. Hartebeespoortdam, South Africa.
Egypt: Possible Climate Outlook Forum for North Africa (to be decided by ACMAD)
Morocco: Possible project meeting in June (to be decided)
F) Anticipated difficulties in the next eight-month period
Lack of funds to ensure realistic participation of stakeholders.
G) Draft or final papers or other outputs of the project during the reporting period
Below is the draft questionnaire that is being discussed by the members of the Project Team.
57 Draft Questionnaire
Please fill the questionnaire and return it to: XXXXXXX
Please write here: Name of your Region: Crops grown in your farm:
1. Size of your farm in ha?
2. Which crops and varieties? (For example, wheat variety durum Mexipak)
3. Do you sell the crops?
To other farmers? To a Farmers’ Cooperative? To individual business? To the Government?
4. Have you noticed a change in the weather or climate in the last 10-20 years? YES / NO
How? What was the best year? Why? What was the worst year? Why?
5. Do the weather changes have an effect on your crops? (Please list in order of importance):
Quantity - which one
Quality - which one
Diseases - which one
58 6. If the weather becomes unsuitable for the varieties you are growing at the moment, do you think it is possible for you to grow different varieties?
Which one
7. Independently from climate changes are you already planning to change the crops or varieties you grow and which would you chose? And why?
Which one?
Why?
8. Are you informed about the influence of climate variability and change in agriculture?
By who?
9. Please list the climate elements more important for a good crop. In order of importance. (For example, precipitation in spring, mild summers, etc.)
10. Do you take decissions every year that are influenced by the weather and climate? YES / NO
Which decissions?
11. What climate information would help your decissions each year (For example, advanced knowledge of the timing of the rains in the fall and in the spring)
12. Do you remember the drought of 1995? YES / NO What were the consequences to your farm?
13. How are the economic consequences of these climate changes for your farm?
14. List in order of importance other solutions you believe necessary to adapt to this climate change
59
15. With respect to the on-going changes (environement, climate, world wine market, legislation, etc) in the agricultural sector, do you think that in the medium and long tern the trend is:
16. A part from your direct personal experience, are you informed about the influence of climate variability and change in agriculture?
By whom?
17. Would you like to know more about the effect of climate in your crops? by e-mail -- by fax -- by post -- through publications -- through personal contacts Other suggestions ......
18. Please feel free to add any comment or suggestions in the space below
19. You may want to provide additional information to know you better:
Name:...... Address:...... Zip Code :...... Town: ...... Region :...... ……………………………….Country :...... Tel. :...... …………….. Fax. :...... ……….. E-mail :...... Web page...... ………………. Your age :...... … Your gender : Male / Female
60 Budget and Expenses from July2002 to Dec 2002
Country Budget Expeneses Amount transfer Total EXP. Egypt - COORDINATOR 26175 11062.96 11062.96 - Case study Research 13075 5693.13 5693.13 Tunisia 14925 7449.5 7449.5 Morcco 12225 0 Spain 13100 0 0 Total 79500 16756.09 7449.5 24205.59
Note :- Recived Amount from AIACC % 50 $ 39681 ( Spain and Morocco did not send to me the acount bank No. till Dec. 2002) -$ 6550+ 6112.50 =12662.50
Estimated expenses for the Subsequent from1,January 2003 to 31 August
Country Requset Amount $ Requset Amount $ Total Requset Egypt from 1/1/2003 to 30/6/2003 from 30/06/2003 to 31/8/2003 Egypt -Coordinator 13087.50 5195.00 18282.50 2597.5 25975 - Case study Research 7381.87 2715.00 10096.87 1357.5 13575 Tunisia 7462.5 2205.00 9667.50 1102.5 11025 Morcco 6112.5 2945.00 9057.50 1472.5 14725 Spain 6550 2553.80 9103.80 1276.9 12769 0.00 0 Total 40594.37 15613.80 56208.17 7806.9 78069
Total request $ 56208.17