AIACC 6Month Report
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ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTH AFRICA: FOOD PRODUCTION AND WATER NEEDS (AF90) 6-month report Feb. 2003 Contents: Item Page ? General Summery (4) ? Egypt Report (5) ? A Brief Summary (6) ? Description of tasks performed and outputs produced (8) ? Description of difficulties encountered and lessons (10) learned ? Description of any connections or interaction between (12) your AIACC project and the preparation of national communications under the UNFCCC for countries relevant to your project ? Description of tasks to be performed in the next eight- (15) month period ? Anticipated difficulties in the next eight-month period (17) ? Attachments (18) ? Tunisia Report (22) ? Expense Report (23) ? AIACC Regional Study Expense Report (24) ? Morocco Report (28) ? Spain Report (30) Summery The project enhance scientific and technical capacity in countries in North Africa for: (1) Assessing current and future adaptive capacity and vulnerability of food production and water resources (2) Enhancing adaptive capacity in current and future conditions (3) Synthesis of lessons learned in the region. By analyzing the current situation the project will enhance the ability of the agriculture sector to interact with and respond to climate information in preparation for the projected range of climate changes through the 21st century. The project compares the results of three case studies and integrates the results in a North Africa wide context. The local case studies have been selected to cover a range of climate and agricultural systems found in North Africa, allowing the sensitivity of the models to be tested. The following areas have been selected: ? Nile Delta, Egypt: High-production irrigated small-holder agriculture, in a region with extreme urban water and land-use conflicts, with projections of high population increase. ? Settat Province, Morocco: Very low-production mostly dryland agriculture, extremely high precipitation variability and persistent drought damages. ? Center Region, Tunisia: Medium/low -production mostly dryland agriculture, located in a region with an intensive economic and tourist activity. Egypt Report A) A brief summary Summary The potential impact of climate change on some food crops productivity and water needs of the major cropping pattern in Egypt (Wheat and summer vegetables) is being carried out by different methods; Stakeholder, empirical- statistical and simulation impact model analyses. Stakeholder engagement is being conducted through four step processes as follows: Identifying Key Stakeholders, Determining Stakeholders’ Interests, Determining Stakeholder Power and Influence and Formulating a Stakeholder Participation Strategy. Stakeholders in Egypt did field-based studies of the adaptation choices of small-holder farmers, commercial farmers and strategic resource managers. The methodology is a survey analysis and communication with stakeholders by local training and national workshops. A primary results of previous and present demonstration aggregates and fields studies were taken from another activities been carried out and recommendations can be outlined to the AIACC present study. The AIACC Egyptian case study team work is participating in the mentioned activities and altering knowledge and information with them. Continuous analyses will be carried out through the project different stages. A list of farmers from El-Beheira, Khafr El-Sheikh, and El-Gharbia Governorates was prepared as a selected sample to represent the project in the Delta region. Also, more information on other activities is explained in the report. B) Description of tasks performed and outputs produced Main activities and achievements The following activities were carried out through the first 6 months: a. Stakeholder engagement: It was conducted through four steps processes as follows: 1. Identifying Key Stakeholders, 2. Determining Stakeholders’ Interests, 3. Determining Stakeholder Power and Influence and 4. Formulating a Stakeholder Participation Strategy. b. Stakeholders Analyses: Stakeholders in Egypt did field-based studies of the adaptation choices of small-holder farmers, commercial farmers and strategic resource managers. The methodology is a survey analysis and communication with stakeholders by local training and national workshops. A list of farmers from El-Beheira, Khafr El-Sheikh, and El-Gharbia Governorates was prepared as a selected sample to represent the Delta region. This list may be included in the first year report. With the goal of increasing agricultural production and achieving the best possible use of water resources, the study of applying agricultural technologies was carried out in Behiera and Khafr El- Sheikh governorates. The study depends on effective extension activities which provide the farmers with the knowledge needed and teach them how to apply this knowledge’s. Extension efforts have been exerted to convince farmers that it is necessary to follow the agricultural practices which guide the use of water in irrigation. Among such activities were paying attention to the demonstration aggregates and fields to cultivate various crops where technologies are applied in order to increase production and guide to the use of water through the use of precession land levelling, long furrows, long borders, and planting dry berseem (as alternative to the traditional wet method), etc… Also, to increase the educational effectiveness of the demonstration aggregates and fields, there are: The field days, the harvesting days, meetings, and field visits were made by researchers and extension workers. Much attention has been made to evaluate the educational effect for such demonstration aggregates and fields carried out on winter season, including wheat, sugar beet, and clover (berseem) crops, and summer season crops, including cotton and rice to know the extent of the farmers knowledge of the technologies used for each crop, find out the growers attitudes towards practices of water management, farmers adoption of water management practices, farmers reasons for using too much water in irrigation, and their suggestions for controlling the use of irrigation water. Basicly, the analysis includes the process of learning by doing. C) Description of difficulties encountered and lessons learned No difficulties except the communication with colleagues in Morocco C) Objectives: Their main objective was to recognize the educational effect of the extension aggregates and fields of winter season crops (wheat and others) and summer crops in order to: 1. recognize some social and economical characteristics of the growers on the developed Canals in Behiera and Khafr El-Sheikh Governorates. 2. studying the educational effect of the demonstration aggregates and fields on the farmers. 3. estimate farmer’s adoption to farm water irrigation practices. 4. recognize the farmer’s attitudes towards guiding water irrigation practices. 5. recognize reasons of using too much water in irrigation by the growers and their sugge stions for good water management. D) Description of any connections or interaction between your AIACC project and the preparation of national communications under the UNFCCC for countries relevant to your project. At the present time, the analysis will focus on the following headings in the field based studies: Findings and recommendations will be explained in the first annual report. 1. Characteristics for growers: 2. Educational effects of the demonstration aggregates and fields: a. Growers knowledge about wheat, and summer crop practices b. Growers knowledge about water management practices 3. Adoption of water management practices: 4. Growers information resources about water management: 5. Growers attitudes towards practices of water management: 6. Growers reasons for using much water for irrigation and their suggestion concerning managing it: With regard to Gharbia Governorate, the short questionnaire (prepared by Ana Iglesius and attached in appendix) was used to detect the farmer’s experiences with the wheat growing practices and evaluate the level of awareness with regard to the influence of climate variability as well as the adoption options for wheat and vegetables grown in the cropping pattern. The analysis of the Gharbia Governorate of farmer’s questionnaire results will be included in the first annual report. The questionnaire format is included in appendix. c. The following activities were done in this connection: 1. Monthly sessions on climate change impact and adaptation assessment in the agricultural sector and water resources were done. The Egyptian Case Study; Assessment of Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agriculture and Water Needs was explained. Sessions were carried out at both, the CLAC and Soil, Water & Environment Research Institute (SWERI) Sites. 2. Completion of publishing a paper on “Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Egyptian agriculture and water needs. AGRO-ENVIRON 2002, 26-29 October 2002, Cairo, Egypt. Paper No.115/Oral. 3. Delta climate map. The Delta climate map is shown in the attached file, Figure 1. The Delta region is classified into three sub-regions; 1. Coastal zone, 2. Centric Delta zone and 3. East and West Delta zone. (Rijetma et al 1979). ET0 values included in the map were calculated by Penman Monteith method (CROPWAT5.7). Climatic data were obtained from the normal (FAO, 1984). Agroclimatological Data for Africa. Vol. 1. Countries North of the Equator. 4. Crop statistics Crop statistics