USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT October 2019

Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Analytical Activity

Acknowledgement

This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Bindez Insights (https://bindez.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

OCTOBER 2019 AT A GLANCE

Fighting in Shan and Rakhine States Continues. In Shan State, 20 civilians were injured and 4 killed, and in Rakhine State 25 civilians were injured, at least 8 killed, and thousands displaced. (Pages 2 and 4)

Tatmadaw and Kachin Independence Army Conflict Flares Up. For the first time since the Tatmadaw announced its unilateral ceasefire nine months ago, the Tatmadaw and the Kachin Independence Army fought in October. (Page 2)

Karen National Liberation Army and Mon National Liberation Army Clash. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA) clashed in a territorial dispute this month in Ye Township, Mon State, and Kawkareik Township. (Page 2)

Karen Martyr’s Day Organizers Found Guilty. Karen Martyr’s Day Organizers were sentenced to 15 days in prison for not cooperating with authorities under the Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Procession Law after organizing a peaceful march to commemorate Karen Martyr’s Day in . (Page 6)

Rohingya Families Arrested for Traveling Without Registration Cards. About 30 Rohingya families, including children, were arrested on their way to Yangon and possibly Malaysia. The families were put in jail after a one-day trial at which the Rohingya were denied legal representation. (Page 7)

Thousands of Rohingya refugees agree to relocate. Up to 7,000 Rohingya refugees agreed to relocate to Bhasan Char Island in the Bay of Bengal. Relocation has since been delayed until the UN approves the plan. (Page 8)

Government Announces New Technology to Combat Corruption. On October 9, the Government announced it would test a Corruption Prevention Unit toolkit. The new technology, aims to battle corruption, and support government efforts to obtain feedback on critical public services. (Page 10)

Peace Talks Between Government and Nationwide Ceasefire Signatories Resume. The Government and the National Ceasefire Agreement Signatories (NCA) did not end with a ceasefire as many had hoped but only plans to continue talking. (Page 11)

Governments of Myanmar and Thailand Announce Renewed Commitment to Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Tanintharyi Region. The $8 billion SEZ and deep sea port will be one of the largest of its kind in Southeast Asia. It is being built in Tanintharyi Region, which has gaping needs in infrastructure. (Page 11)

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1

CONFLICT SHAN

● Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY and Tatmadaw fight in Shan State, despite Despite a Brotherhood Alliance unilateral Brotherhood Alliance unilateral ceasefire; ceasefire, fighting continued this month between fighting leads to civilian injuries and the Tatmadaw and the Ta’ang National deaths. Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the ● Conflict between Tatmadaw and Kachin Brotherhood Alliance. The two forces clashed in Independence Army (KIA) resumes in Hseni, Namhkan, and Kutkai Townships, and Kachin State. four times in Kutkai Township. The TNLA ● Tensions spike in Karen State between suffered one casualty while seven Tatmadaw the Karen National Liberation Army soldiers died.i (KNLA) and the Mon National Liberation Army over a territorial dispute. The fighting between the TNLA and the ● Fierce fighting between Tatmadaw and Tatmadaw serve as a reminder that alliances Arakan Army (AA) in Paletwa, Chin State, between EAOs are often ineffectual and and Rakhine State continues, hurting ceasefires do not necessarily mean an end to civilians. fighting. ● The AA abducts 50 people in two large operations in Rakhine State. On September 29, in Kutkai Township, the TNLA detained four Myanmar police officers ii Figure 1 maps conflict events in Myanmar traveling to Namhsan Town. A TNLA between October 1 and October 31, 2019 as spokesperson reported that the ethnic armed reported by the Armed Conflict and Location organization (EAO) detained the officers because Event Data (ACLED) project. they were wearing civilian clothes and demanding taxes from residents in the Mongsi Village Tract, while claiming they belonged to the TNLA.iii Although the EAO announced they intended to free the officers, at the time of writing there was no news of their release.

Table 1 details the number of civilians displaced, injured, and killed this month in Shan State due to fighting between EAOs and the Tatmadaw.

Figure 1. Conflict Hot Spot Map (October 1 – October 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 Table 1. Details of civilians displaced, injured and killed in Shan State, September 2019 Location Number of Details of civilians affected civilians affected District Township

Muse Kutkai 6 injured ● October 11: three local villagers were injured and six houses damaged when an artillery shell landed in Man Aung Su See village. ● October 23: a refugee man from Pan Ku refugee camp was injured and is in critical condition after stepping on a landmine located near Pang Ku village. ● October 24: artillery shells fired during a battle between the Tatmadaw and TNLA fell into Pado Phaka village, injuring a mother and daughter.

Kyaukme Kyaukme 5 injured, 3 killed ● October 2: a 32-year-old man was shot dead by an unknown armed group. ● October 8: one villager was killed and another injured when an artillery shell exploded while the villagers were working on a tea farm. ● October 10: a man was injured and a woman killed after they stepped on a landmine while working on a tea farm. ● October 13: three monks were injured driving over a landmine near Pan Ta Moc village.

Namhsan 1 killed ● October 9: a woman working on a tea farm was killed stepping on a landmine.

Lashio Hseni 9 injured ● October 9: seven civilians were injured when the TNLA ambushed a convoy of Tatmadaw trucks. ● October 11: a Lisu ethnic couple was injured after an artillery shell hit their house

KACHIN The Kachin Independence Organization (the political arm of the KIA) announced that, despite TATMADAW - KACHIN INDEPENDENCE the fighting, it would continue to push for peace ARMY through political negotiations, and ordered the Following the expiration of the Tatmadaw’s nine- KIA not to attack Tatmadaw troops.vi The KIA month unilateral ceasefire in September, the claimed that when the Tatmadaw attacked the Tatmadaw and the Kachin Independence Army KIA regiment on October 19, its fighters did not (KIA) fought in Mohnyin Township on October fire back.vii 14.iv No one was killed during the incident. However, according to the Kachin News Group, KAREN the Tatmadaw forced two villagers to be their guides. The villagers stepped on a landmine set KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY - up by the KIA and were injured.v The Tatmadaw MON NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY also attacked a KIA regiment on October 19. On October 17, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) carried out two simultaneous attacks on the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA): one in Ye Township, Mon State, and

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 one in Kawkareik Township, Karen State. One retaliate, which would explain this month’s member of the MNLA was killed, and according attacks. The EAOs appear to have stopped to the Karen Information Centre, two KNLA fighting but further monitoring of the area is soldiers were also killed.viii recommended.

Relations between the two EAOs were tense ARAKAN ARMY - TATMADAW after the MNLA arrested seven members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), a On September 30, in response to the violence breakaway group of the KNLA in September. against civilians, the Rakhine State Hluttaw The attacks were sparked after the MNLA approved a motion urging the Rakhine State destroyed a Karen flag demarcating the border Government to guarantee that the Tatmadaw between Karen and Mon territories. On and the AA will stop targeting civilians.xii The October 23, both sides issued a suspension of motion passed, though the Tatmadaw denied hostilities statement and reached an agreement deliberately attacking civilians. on contested territory in Kawkareik Township. Despite the truce, the MNLA and KNLA fought Throughout October, the conflict between the again in Ye township, killing one MNLA soldier.ix AA and the Tatmadaw continued, primarily in MNLA’s Lt-Col Saw She Win said that troops on Rathedaung and Minbya Townships in Rakhine both sides must listen to their authority’s State and Paletwa Township in Chin State. commands, suggesting that the fighting on However, the Tatmadaw and the AA also fought October 23 was not authorized by KNLA or in Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, and Mrauk- MNLA leadership.x U Townships. Figure 2 shows all the actors in the conflict, and the number of violent incidents Civilians in the affected areas were caught in the between October 1 and October 31, 2019, as fighting. reported that over 50 reported by the Armed Conflict Location & ethnic Mon civilians have fled since fighting began. Event Data Project (ACLED).xiii A number of villagers said that the KNLA destroyed their homes and raided their food In Buthidaung Township, a bomb exploded near supplies.xi According to the Karen Information a site where a new NLD party office is under Centre, one Karen civilian was killed in the construction.xiv No one was injured, but local fighting. The civilian’s death appears to be an leaders told The Irrawaddy that they believe the isolated incident. incident is a deliberate threat against NLD party members.xv The KNLA-MNLA conflict followed fighting last month between the New Mon State Party The Tatmadaw used helicopters in Rakhine this (NMSP) and the Democratic Karen Buddhist month. On October 17, The Tatmadaw used Army (DKBA), a breakaway group of the KNLA. helicopters in Rakhine, and on October 22 in According to an Arakan Army (AA) consultant, Ponnagyun and Minbya Townships.xvi The aerial the NMSP detained a DKBA solider and six AA attacks in Ponnagyun damaged five houses in soldiers, who were training with DKBA forces. Aung Ma Kyaw village.xvii Villagers were unable to Although the NMSP announced that it had freed flee for fear of being caught in the crossfire. The seven soldiers, none returned, and their Tatmadaw denied the use of helicopters. whereabouts are unknown. Then on October 26, the Tatmadaw carried out The AA consultant said that the Tatmadaw is aerial attacks on about six villages in Rathedaung pressuring the NMSP to remove DKBA troops Township, claiming it was pursuing the AA after from the area. On September 17 and 18, the it seized an estimated 50 people from a NMSP attacked and burned down a DKBA camp. passenger ship on the Mayu River. The ship was The AA advisor believed that DKBA and the carrying over 160 passengers, and among the KNLA forces had been waiting for a chance to abducted were 14 Tatmadaw soldiers, 29 police

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 3 officers, two prison workers and 13 civilians. A the firefighters because they were Tatmadaw number were killed, though the Tatmadaw reserve forces disguised in non-military claimed the AA killed them before the fighting uniforms.xxiii The Tatmadaw denies these began, and that it was using the civilians as human accusations. shields.xviii The Tatmadaw also claimed to have rescued 14 of the abducted.xix On October 5, the AA abducted a married couple from Thayar Kon village, Paletwa This month, an increasing number of incidents Township, bringing the total number of missing involving Tatmadaw brutality against civilians civilians from Paletwa to 15.xxiv Chin civil society were reported. The Tatmadaw reportedly organizations, political organizations (such as the burned down about 10 houses in Kun Taung Chin National Front), and local residents believe village, Buthidaung Township.xx It is also accused that the AA is responsible, an accusation the of looting village shops, houses, and a school in EAO denies.xxv The Chin State Government Rathedaung and Minbya Townships and of announced that it would request support from forcing villagers to march with them, using the the National Reconciliation and Peace Centre to civilians as guides and human shields in both find the missing villagers.xxvi Rakhine and Chin states.xxi Table 2 details the number of civilians displaced, The AA is also targeting civilians, although to a injured, and killed this month as a result of the lesser extent than the Tatmadaw. On October fighting between the AA and the Tatmadaw in 11, the AA detained 18 firefighters and 12 civilian Rakhine State. passengers traveling on a bus from Mandalay Region to Sittwe.xxii The AA claimed it arrested

Table 2. Details of civilians displaced, injured and killed in Rakhine State Location Number of Details of civilians affected civilians District Township affected

Sittwe Ponnagyun 1 injured ● October 18: a woman from the Mro ethnic group was injured in crossfire between the Tatmadaw and the AA.

Rathedaung 2 injured, at ● October 6: an unknown number of civilians fled following the arrival of a least 2 column of Tatmadaw soldiers at Htee Swe village. killed, at ● October 8: a young man was killed in crossfire and an elderly woman died least 1000 from a heart attack during a clash between the AA and Tatmadaw in displaced Kyauktan village. ● October 10: during an attack by the AA, the Tatmadaw fired deliberately into villagers nearby, causing 1,000 to flee. ● October 21: a mother and daughter were injured by an artillery shell that exploded in Sin Khone Taing village. ● October 26: the Tatmadaw launched airstrikes on a number of villages using three helicopters after the AA abducted about 50 people from a passenger ship on the Mayu river. Many of the abducted were killed in the attack.

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 4 Location Number of Details of civilians affected civilians District Township affected

Maungdaw Buthidaung At least 6 ● October 2: a 14-year-old female student was injured by an artillery shell injured, 2 that exploded near an IDP tent in Sedi Taung village. killed, 200 ● October 6: 200 civilians fled and seven went missing after fighting broke displaced out between the Tatmadaw and the AA. ● October 7: a Muslim man was hit by a Tatmadaw artillery shell and killed. ● October 8: a civilian was killed in crossfire between the AA and the Tatmadaw. ● October 20 and 21: artillery shells fired by unknown forces into a number of villages injured at least three civilians, including a Muslim woman. ● October 24: two women were injured in an exchange of fire between the AA and a border guard police convoy after the AA attacked the convoy with remote-controlled mines.

Mrauk-U Mrauk-U 1 killed ● October 19: the Tatmadaw shot and killed a farmer working on his land.

Minbya 3 injured ● October 21: a mother and her three children were injured after artillery shells fired by the Tatmadaw hit her house in Khaung Laung Ywar Haung village.

Myebon 2 injured ● October 7: a 19-year-old woman was injured when she stepped on a landmine in the forest near Ingyin village. ● October 24: a villager fleeing the sounds of gunshots, was detained and beaten by Tatmadaw soldiers. He was later released.

Kyauktaw 11 injured, 3 ● October 1: a monk, a teacher, a novice, and three students were injured killed by an artillery shell that landed in a monastery in Mi Wa village. The shell was launched by the Tatmadaw, which claimed it was exchanging fire with the AA. The AA denied the accusation. ● October 2: the Tatmadaw shot and killed a 40-year-old villager riding his motorbike near Kar Di village for not stopping when ordered. According to the Tatmadaw, the man was carrying parts to assemble a landmine. ● October 15: the Tatmadaw shot and killed a 53-year-old man who ran when ordered to stop for a military check. A 24-year-old university student was injured in the gunfire. ● October 17: a 43-year-old farmer, forced to serve as a guide by the Tatmadaw, was killed after the Tatmadaw came across a landmine and the soldiers began shooting. Two civilians were also injured. ● October 23: artillery shells fired during a battle between the Tatmadaw and the AA injured an elderly man and his grandchild.

Figure 2 shows all the conflict actors and the number of violent interactions from September 1 to September 30, 2019, as reported by ACLED.

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 5 Figure 2. Conflict Actors (October 1 – October 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED SOCIAL FREE SPEECH WATCH

● Karen Martyr’s Day organizers found KAREN MARTYR’S DAY ORGANIZERS guilty of not cooperating with authorities, FOUND GUILTY sentenced to 15 days in prison. Three On October 2, three Karen activists, arrested more activists arrested for organizing a for organizing a Karen Martyr’s Day celebration, protest in response. were found guilty of not cooperating with ● UN Office in Myanmar calls for internet to authorities under section 20 of the Peaceful be fully restored in towns without access Assembly and Peaceful Procession Law. They for over 100 days. were sentenced to 15 days in prison.xxvii Over 20 ● Nam Ma townspeople block energy civil society organizations, Karen political parties, company officials from entering village to and other associations protested their arrest. advocate for dam construction. Because they had already been held for two ● Approximately 30 Rohingya, including weeks prior to the trial, the activists were children, arrested for traveling without released upon sentencing.xxviii Naw Ohn Hla, one registration cards. of the activists, tried to appeal the conviction, but ● The Head of UN Fact-Finding Mission on was denied.xxix Myanmar warns: Rohingya genocide could happen again. Myanmar’s Three other activists, Sein Htwe, Ma Zarchi Linn, ambassador to the UN responds: UN and Naw Larshee Htoo, held a rally attended by Mission’s reporting biased and misleading. about 130 people, chanting at the court on the ● Myanmar rejects China’s offer to facilitate day of the Karen activists’ hearing. The three Rohingya group’s advance visit to Rakhine were arrested and are being sued by the ahead of full repatriation. Kyauktada Police Station for unlawful ● Up to 7,000 Rohingya refugees agree to assembly.xxx relocate to Bhasan Char, possibly in the first week of November. UN JOINS CALLS FOR INTERNET ● IDP camps in Shan and Rakhine states RESTORATION face food shortages. The UN Office in Myanmar requested that full ● Villagers in Karen State blame Myaing internet access be restored in the remaining four Galay cement factory for polluting wells, townships where the internet service has been ponds, and streams. shut down for more than 100 days. In its

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 6 statement, the UN included that internet children who were sent to a “training school,” availability “[is] indispensable.”xxxi The shutdown, and one five-year-old who is currently in prison it said, prevents humanitarian and development with his mother until the authorities determine work and disrupts the lives of local residents. what to do with him.xxxix According to the The UN also said that “the internet is very Human Rights Watch, the group was put in jail important for accessing information and free after a one-day trial in which the defendants speech.”xxxii were denied legal representation.xl As the Rohingya are denied citizenship, they are unable Although Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun of the to obtain legal documentation that allows them military information committee told Radio Free to travel freely.xli Most are required to remain Asia reporters that the lack of internet access to inside IDP camps or villages. This group information did not hamper journalists’ ability to reportedly paid traffickers between MMK report on the situation, he said that the 500,000 and 700,000 ($326 - $456) to get them Government would consider the UN to Yangon.xlii statement.xxxiii On September 30, in a show of solidarity with the 600,000 residents of the four UN MISSION WARNS OF RECURRING affected townships, a number of organizations GENOCIDE OF ROHINGYA and businesses joined Myanmar Internet In a speech to the UN General Assembly on Blackout Day, in which all participants stopped October 23, the Head of the UN Fact-Finding using the internet entirely for the day.xxxiv Mission (FFM) on Myanmar, Marzuki Darusman, warned of the risk of Rohingya genocide NAM MA VILLAGERS BLOCK DAM recurring in Myanmar.xliii The Government of COMPANY OFFICIALS Myanmar refuses to recognize the Rohingya as On October 10, 2019, local villagers blocked citizens and the ethnic group continues to suffer officials from the local, Yangon-based company, discrimination, segregation, lack of services, Unienergy, from entering the town to discuss the freedom of movement, and insecurity. construction of a dam with residents.xxxv On August 14, the Shan State government signed an Mr. Darusman said there was a serious risk of a MoU with Unienergy for a feasibility study recurring genocide. He stated, “Myanmar is despite local opposition. The villagers said they failing in its obligations under the Genocide were ready to take a stand against the building of Convention to prevent genocide, to investigate the dam which, they claimed, would negatively genocide and to enact effective legislation affect their livelihoods and the environment. criminalizing and punishing genocide.”xliv He Many also feared forced relocation.xxxvi called on foreign governments and companies to According to Unienergy, company officials have sever business ties with the Tatmadaw, arguing tried to meet with local residents several times international pressure is important in the since 2017, but were turned away every time by absence of a referral by the UN Security Council villagers telling them the dam was for the International Criminal Court to unwelcome.xxxvii investigate the situation in Myanmar.xlv

ROHINGYA CRISIS Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN, Hau Do Suan, called Darusman’s reporting biased and ROHINGYA ARRESTED FOR TRAVELING misleading, and accused the mission of ignoring WITHOUT REGISTRATION CARDS other minorities in Rakhine State. In reference to Approximately 30 Rohingya were arrested in late the 2017 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army’s September 2019 under the Residents of Burma attacks, he said that the Government of Registration Act for traveling without Myanmar believes perpetrators of human rights registration cards.xxxviii The group – on its way to violations must be held accountable. The UN’s Yangon and possibly Malaysia in search of work independent investigator on Myanmar countered – was made up of 21 adults who were jailed; eight that the Independent Commission of Inquiry,

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 7 formed to hold perpetrators accountable, has Bangladesh, Enamur Rahman, said the country yet to produce a report.xlvi hoped to relocate 100,000 refugees total.liv On November 6, however, Enamur Rahman MYANMAR GOVERNMENT REJECTS OFFER announced that plans were delayed until the UN OF INSPECTION BEFORE REPATRIATION “greenlights” plans.lv Myanmar rejected an offer made by China to facilitate an advance visit to Rakhine by a group Though many refugees are hopeful about the of Rohingya.xlvii Claiming the Government never move, human rights organizations have agreed to the offer and that it is waiting for expressed reservations. The island is flood- Bangladesh to “allow” refugees to return, prone, vulnerable to cyclones and, by boat, is Director General of the Political Affairs hours away from the mainland. US acting Department in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, assistant secretary of the Bureau of South and Aung Ko, stated the Government would “adhere Central Asia urged Bangladesh to postpone to the bilateral agreement to accept returning relocation until an independent investigation was refugees after they are assessed […]” and that its conducted on the suitability of the island.lvi hands are tied “as the other side has so far not Bangladesh’s Disaster Management Ministry allowed the refugees to return.”xlviii responded that “No one [would] be moved there against their will.”lvii Most Rohingya refugees said they do not trust the Government to guarantee their safety, IDP CAMPS FACING FOOD SHORTAGES citizenship, and freedom of movement, basing their views on reports from the Rohingya who Displacement camps in Shan and Rakhine States stayed in Rakhine State that conditions remain are running low on food, a combination of an unchanged.xlix Their claims coincide with the increase in IDPs and a decrease in donor experience of roughly 300 recent returnees, 27 support.lviii IDPs in Shan are hesitant to go of them just in the last week of September, who beyond their camps and villages in fear of said they still suffer persecution, restricted landmines, which means they cannot collect food movement, and fewer social services, and that or firewood.lix Representatives from the local they have not been permitted to return to their relief agency, Rakhine Ethnic Congress, said that original villages or gain citizenship.l with fewer donors and insufficient funding from the Government, camps in Ponnagyun Township Meanwhile, Japan, Bangladesh, and India called for ran out of food in late September.lx UNICEF the safe and swift repatriation of the Rohingya. reports that food insecurity is becoming a major Japan also called for the punishment of all concern because humanitarian actors have perpetrators of human rights violations in limited access to IDP sites and the Rakhine State Rakhine, to build trust between potential government’s food assistance is not enough to Rohingya repatriates and the Government of feed all of the IDPs in northern Rakhine.lxi Myanmar.li The Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, said she “cannot blame anybody VILLAGERS IN KAREN STATE EXPRESS because Myanmar is not listening to anyone,” and CONCERN OVER WATER that “Bangladesh would continue to host the In early October, panic spread in villages of Hpa- refugees, but that their presence was taking a an Township, Karen State after wells, ponds, and toll.”lii streams turned black. Villagers blamed the

nearby Myaing Galay cement factory, accusing it THOUSANDS OF ROHINGYA AGREE TO of dumping coal, which then spread into nearby RELOCATE TO BHASAN CHAR water sources. Local residents are now too Of the roughly one million Rohingya that are afraid to drink the water.lxii now living in Cox’s Bazar, as many as 7,000 have agreed to move to Bhasan Char, a small island in Karen Chief Minister Nan Khin Htwe Myint the Bay of Bengal.liii The State Minister of inspected the water, declared it safe for

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 8 consumption, and drank some herself to number of elections.lxvii However, the decision- demonstrate. She assured villagers that she making process was not transparent.lxviii The would sue the factory if there was anything Arakan National Party (ANP) fears that, under wrong with the water.lxiii But when fish were the guise of safety concerns, poll stations will be found dead two days later, fears grew. “People closed for political reasons. According to ANP here say they found dead fish. After the water MP, Pe Tha, the party has strong support in these color of this lake changed, everyone who bathes conflict areas, and polling stations could be kept in it feels itchy… no one dares to use this water closed to prevent the ANP from making gains.lxix as it is contaminated.”lxiv Authorities distributed The Kachin State People’s Party expressed bottled water and purification tablets, and water similar concerns for Kachin State.lxx donated by the Karen State Police Force.lxv Saw Win Tun, General Secretary of the Shan-ni Solidarity Party, released a statement that said POLITICS that the EAOs themselves would likely

determine whether elections would take place in ● EAOs express concern that continued conflict-affected townships. Saw Win Tun cited conflict may affect upcoming general the run up to the 2015 general election, when a election, raising fears that security number of EAOs declared temporary ceasefires concerns could keep polling stations with the Government, as evidence that ethnic closed. groups themselves can influence the election ● NLD announces half of its current MPs to outcome.lxxi be replaced in the next general election. ● Government will test new technology to NLD spokesperson Monywa Aung Shin combat corruption. countered that those bearing weapons would ● Peace talks resume between EAOs and determine whether there would be peaceful Government following NCA fourth elections. Sai Ye Kyaw Swar Myint of People's anniversary. Alliance for Credible Elections suggested that the Union Election Commission (UEC) and the

President should negotiate with EAOs to halt ELECTION 2020 WATCH fighting during the election. POLLING STATIONS A number of ethnic groups expressed concerns The NLD-led government objects to polling that, due to ongoing armed conflict, not all stations on military bases, claiming this would polling stations would be open during the affect the ability of military personnel and their lxxii upcoming general election. Fears were families to vote freely and fairly. In October, particularly acute in Shan and Rakhine States, the UEC submitted its draft amendments to where intense fighting between the Tatmadaw electoral by-laws to the Union Parliament. One and AA is taking place; eleven townships in of the proposed amendments is a provision that Sittwe and Maungdaw districts in Rakhine State military personnel will be mandated to cast their could be affected. Conflict trends in these ballot in polling stations outside of military lxxiii locations should be closely monitored. In 2015, cantonments. Military spokesperson Major the Union Election Commission (UEC) closed General Tun Tun Nyi responded to the poll stations in seven townships in Shan State and allegation by saying that military personnel would approximately 450 village tracts in 27 other be too busy during the elections to vote outside lxxiv townships in Bago, Kachin, Kayin, Mon and Shan their barracks. Nyan Win, member of the NLD Central Executive Committee, said that the states due to alleged security concerns.lxvi party will request a review of electoral The Tatmadaw tells the UEC where to close regulations before the 2020 general election. polls for security reasons. Political parties were not consulted in 2015 when the UEC closed a

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 9 NLD TO REPLACE OVER HALF OF ITS CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT Earlier this month, NLD spokesperson Monywa In October, Parliament was in recess, and no Aung Shin said the party will replace more than formal legislative progress was made on the half of its current MPs, ostensibly because they constitutional reform. In an interview with are underqualified for their jobs. According to Nikkei Asian Review, noted it Monywa Aung Shin, candidates will be selected in was unlikely that Parliament would pass any line with NLD’s strategy for winning the 2020 amendments before the next general election, elections, which will vary by township, district, citing Tatmadaw’s continued opposition to the and state or region. They will be chosen based reform.lxxix on a number of criteria including loyalty, age, ethnicity, and education, but political In Facebook comments which were subsequently commentator, Dr. Yan Myo Thein, said that the deleted, political analyst Sai Wansai criticized the NLD does not have fully defined criteria yet.lxxv NLD’s handling of the constitutional amendment He suggested that the party should learn from its process. He claimed that Suu Kyi’s interview mistakes in the previous election and select demonstrated NLD’s inability to keep its candidates who will help regain public trust.lxxvi promise to the electorate.lxxx He went on to say that the party’s efforts to change the constitution On October 24, at a party meeting held in were only “half-hearted” and “just for show”.lxxxi Yangon, Mandalay Region, Chief Minister Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, who is also the NLD’s Vice CORRUPTION WATCH Chairman, urged NLD MPs to “self-improve” their image with the public. He reminded party On October 9, the Government announced it members that public political awareness has would test a Corruption Prevention Unit toolkit. grown and that the election’s outcome will not The new technology, aims to tackle corruption, depend solely on the image of Aung San Suu Kyi and will request feedback via text messages from but also on the capabilities of party members.lxxvii people who have used public services at 10 government ministries. The feedback specifically A pundit who works closely with MPs expressed asks that people report on the quality of the his surprise to MAA researchers over the service they received whether they encountered number of MPs the NLD plans to replace. Earlier any corrupt behavior or bribery.lxxxii estimates indicated that only 20 percent of MPs would be unseated. While acknowledging that a On October 1, Vice President Myint Swe gave a number of MPs proved to be unqualified, he also speech at a Myanmar Police Force Day raised concerns that building the capacity of so celebration in Naypyidaw, encouraging officers many new MPs would take a very long time. to rid their ranks of corruption. The Vice President went on to say that the officers should BY-ELECTION: NO PLAN BEFORE 2020 abide by a set of rules and ethical behavior that GENERAL ELECTION would improve public trust. Chief of Police, Although there are currently nine vacant district General Aung Win Oo, reiterated the Vice seats, the UEC does not plan to hold a special President’s remarks, vowing to ensure that election before the 2020 general election. During officers follow the rules, and threatened a coordination meeting in Naypyidaw in late prosecution of those who did not.lxxxiii September, UEC spokesperson Myint Naing explained that the UEC is focused on compiling Other developments at the state level prompted a voter’s list. Since the NLD took office in 2016, questions from lawmakers over the two special elections were held – one on April 1, Government’s commitment to transparency. 2017, for 19 vacant seats, and the other on One such concern was over the securing of November 3, 2018, for 13 vacant seats.lxxviii tenders. Presidential guidelines require, for example, that any budgetary expenditures over

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 10 MMK 10 million ($6,557) be subject to a tender. process beyond 2020, to involve non-signatories From April to September, however, the Mon of the NCA in the process, and to “ensure that State Government spent more than the the people are able to enjoy the fruits of permitted amount on five separate projects peace.”lxxxix without calling for tenders.lxxxiv The State Auditor highlighted this issue to the Mon State The Government planned to meet in October Parliament as part of its annual report. with the Northern Alliance to sign a bilateral truce agreement and convince the Northern In mid-October, in a separate incident in Yangon, Alliance to join the NCA.xc Due to NCA’s media reports claimed that the Regional anniversary celebration, the meeting was Government requested the Auditor General to postponed until early November, according to limit the circulation of the Fiscal Year 2017-18 Government spokesperson Zaw Htay. report on regional administrative spending. The intervention allegedly prevented regional On October 17, the Government Peace lawmakers from scrutinizing the report.lxxxv On Commission met with the Chairman of the October 22, a number of media outlets which Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) in had covered the incident were excluded from a Chiang Mai, Thailand, supposedly to discuss press conference held by the Yangon Regional topics like the NCA and IDPs. Commentators Government.lxxxvi These cases demonstrate the speculated that the Government was trying to challenge of aligning the government’s rhetoric convince the KIA – the strongest member of the on fighting corruption with actual Northern Alliance – to sign the NCA separately, implementation of fair and transparent practices despite a previous pledge only to sign on the ground. collectively.xci

PEACE PROCESS ECONOMICS In mid-October, after a three-day Peace Process Steering Team meeting in Thailand, the NCA- ● Myanmar and Thailand announce renewed signatory EAOs agreed, in principle, to resume commitment to Dawei Special Economic official peace negotiations with the Government. Zone (SEZ) prioritizing basic This agreement came despite EAO leaders' infrastructure. strong objections to the Government's ● The Mandalay-Muse railway is plagued with September 3 memorandum that requires NCA further delays as conflict continues on signatories to seek approval for receiving planned project site development aid from UN organizations, ● The budget allocation for FY 2019-20 embassies, and international nongovernmental includes a substantial increase in spending organizations.lxxxvii across the board and the highest proportion of funds allocated to the MOEE The meeting preceded the NCA’s Fourth ● The World Bank released its latest annual Anniversary celebration in Naypyidaw on report on Doing Business, with Myanmar October 28, which was attended by senior climbing six places to 165 government and Tatmadaw officials. All NCA signatories sent delegates, except for the Restoration Council for Shan State (RCSS), DAWEI SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE which cited security concerns.lxxxviii At the event,

Aung San Suu Kyi vowed to intensify talks with The Thai and Myanmar Governments made NCA non-signatories and urged the signatory progress on the development of the Dawei SEZ EAOs to work harder for sustainable peace in and deep sea port. In early October, officials the country. She also outlined the Government’s from both countries met for the ninth Myanmar- three-step peace process: to continue the peace Thailand Joint Coordinating Committee and

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 11 agreed to prioritize basic infrastructure, such as The Myanmar Ministry of Transport is still roads and electricity, to better service the reviewing the technical feasibility report Tanintharyi Region. submitted by China Railway Eryuan Engineering Co (CREEC) in August 2019. According to a If built, the $8 billion SEZ will be one of the September social media analysis on economic largest in Southeast Asia.xcii Dawei will connect development in Myanmar, many posted cities in the southern part of the Greater comments about the Mandalay Muse Railway and Mekong region, including Bangkok and Phnom the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port, most of them Penh, and provide a further means of connecting calling for more transparency in decision-making Myanmar and Southeast Asia with parts of Africa on infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, and India. The area also aims to become a large environmental impact assessments and soil tests industrial zone offering tax incentives to attract have been delayed by regional unrest and business investment. The development of a instability. The feasibility report will likely only be power plant and liquified natural gas terminal will complete following the submission of all the support the infrastructure needs of the SEZ. The required assessments.xcviii Thai government gave developers an interest- free loan to build a highway between the SEZ and Significant uncertainty surrounds the financial Thailand, to boost trade and tourism between viability and funding of the project. Htaung San the two areas.xciii Khan, General Manager of Administration and Planning for Myanmar Railways, said it remains Originally announced in 2008, the project has unclear whether the project will be funded by a experienced several setbacks, including problems government-to-government loan, a public- with funding, wildlife, and potential negative private partnership, or a joint venture.xcix impacts on village livelihoods.xciv Electricity is also an issue, as, only 16 percent of the region’s BUDGET ALLOCATION population is connected to the national grid and much of the population relies on “regional grids” Following its approval in September, the national which deliver electricity from local generators. budget for fiscal year (FY) 2019-20 started on Regular consumers do not benefit from the October 1, and the Government released details electricity subsidies offered by the Union on spending allocation. Total government Government and pay higher prices than in other spending for is expected to be MMK 35.2 trillion parts of the country.xcv To help increase the ($23 billion), a 43 percent increase from FY energy supply to the region, a $300 million loan 2018-19. The Government deficit is also from the Asian Development Bank was approved expected to widen to MMK 6.7 trillion ($4.4 in December 2018 as part of the Power billion), up from MMK 4.8 trillion ($3.1 billion) Network Development Project.xcvi the previous year.c

BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE UPDATE For the first time, energy and electricity funding topped the share of planned government MANDALAY-MUSE RAILWAY spending (25%), closely followed by planning and The Mandalay-Muse railway continues to be finance (23%). Defense spending is down from 13 hindered by delays. The railway will connect with percent to 11 percent, but actual spending on the Kunming-Shweli railway in China, which is defense is expected to increase slightly as a result already under construction, and is expected to of the overall increase in the government be completed by 2022. It is part of China’s larger budget.ci strategic plan to connect to the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and Deep Sea Port, in Increased spending on energy and electricity Rakhine State, as well as with Bangladesh and reflects the Government’s commitment to India’s northeastern region.xcvii resolve energy shortages, as demand continues to outpace production capacity. With a 28

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 12 percent increase from the previous year, the key concern affecting Myanmar’s economic 2019-20 Ministry of Energy and Electricity budget performance. Indeed, during an interview with is expected to cover the short-term, expensive MAA researchers, the International Growth emergency energy plan, aimed at preventing a Centre indicated that the government’s low repeat of the crippling power cuts in last year’s revenue collection capacity was a major hot season.cii impediment to funding development projects.

Also of note is the high proportion of funds Increased spending could also reflect the apportioned to the Ministry of Education. While Government's anticipated rise of its total annual the share of the total budget allocated to revenue, from MMK 19.9 trillion in FY 2018-19 education in FY 2019-20 decreased slightly to MMK 28.5 trillion FY 2019-20.civ compared to FY 2018-19 (from nine to eight percent), actual spending on education is The upcoming general election in 2020 is also a projected to increase by 19 percent compared likely factor in the decision to increase spending, to last year’s budget. This increase reflects a as the Government looks to boost its popularity general upward trend in spending on education by improving public services. In June, Myanmar under the NLD with year-on-year increases historian Thant Myint-U noted that the devoted to education, from MMK 1.46 trillion Government’s planned spending for FY 2019-20 ($956 million) in FY 2015-16 to MMK 2.7 trillion was a “pre-election” budget.cv Indeed, President ($1.8 billion) in FY 2019-20.ciii Win Myint explained that the increase in the deficit was necessary as the Government was The growing annual budget could signal the planning projects to provide immediate public Government’s willingness to address its overall benefit in the months leading up to the low level of expenditure, raised by experts as a November 2020 election.cvi

DOCUMENT OF THE MONTH, PART I: DOING BUSINESS 2020

The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business report presents a relatively positive picture of Myanmar, with slow but steady economic progress. The country climbed out of the bottom 20 countries in the world, from 171 last year to 165 (out of 190). But Myanmar is still a long way from the NLD’s goal – to be in the top 100 by 2020.cvii

Myanmar made improvements in five out of ten areas:

1. Starting a business: improved by introducing an online platform for company registration and reduced incorporation fees; 2. Dealing with construction permits: improved by imposing stricter qualification requirements on architects and engineers, improving water and sanitation infrastructure, and enforcing higher standards for granting building permits. 3. Registering a property: improved by streamlining the land administration system, which includes publishing a payment schedule, official service standards, and statistics on property transfers for the previous calendar year. 4. Protecting minority investors: improved by more stringent requirements on the disclosure of transactions with interested parties, through corporate transparency and increased director responsibility for the timely publishing of information relevant to the public such as company financials. Since August 2018, the new Companies Law ensures that company directors may face legal repercussions if they fail in their corporate duties. They must always act in good faith and with integrity and the law provides a legal framework to ensure this is the case.cviii 5. Enforcing contracts: improved by the publishing of quality of performance reports.cix

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 13 Improvement on the index does not necessarily correspond to progress on the ground. Senior officials from Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) told MAA that the business environment in Myanmar is weak and very little has changed for small, local businesses. An owner of an international firm operating in Myanmar noted that, regardless of positive changes in the legal framework, doing business in the country remains incredibly challenging because government officials lack skills and many reforms are not actually being implemented.

YANGON STOCK EXCHANGE attract foreign investment. As of October 30, the Yangon Stock Exchange reported a trading On October 18, the Securities and Exchange value of only MMK 47.5 million ($31,000) down Commission of Myanmar (SECM) announced from MMK 3.5 billion when it first opened in that foreigners based in Myanmar will soon be March 2016, and has just five listed able to trade on the Yangon Stock Exchange as companies.cxi part of the Government’s continued efforts to open the country to international markets.cx Although the Ministry of Finance and Planning The need to attract international investment is announced the liberalization of the stock an opinion shared by many. For instance, exchange in July, the SECM delayed its plans economic and political consultant Amara Thiha following discussions with the Central Bank of told MAA researchers that the biggest challenge Myanmar and other ministries. It is now to the economy was a lack of solvency, and expected that Myanmar-based foreigners will be argued that the Government should do more to able to start trading in December.

DOCUMENT OF THE MONTH, PART II: WORLD BANK REPORT

The World Bank’s Weathering Growing Risks report for East Asia and the Pacific, released earlier this month, highlights the slowing economic growth in the region amid weakening global demand, increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. The report paints a mixed picture of Myanmar in particular.cxii While it praises the country’s progress in economic growth and reduction of poverty, it points to risks associated with natural disasters, the Rakhine crisis, uncertainty around global trade policy, and China’s economic slowdown.

The report expects GDP to grow more than 6 percent in the short-term, driven by investment and growth in the manufacturing, insurance, and construction sectors. At the same time, inflation is also relatively high and expected to stay between 7 and 8.5 percent over the next three years as the economy struggles to keep up with increasing demand. Although GDP growth has led to poverty reduction, the report notes that rural poverty remains 2.7 times higher than in urban areas due to limited agricultural growth and jobs in construction and manufacturing for the low-skilled urban population.

Finally, the report underscores the ongoing risks linked to extreme climate conditions, with Myanmar seen as especially vulnerable. Natural disasters and monsoon floods continue to wreak havoc on agriculture and have displaced 150,000 people in July and August alone.cxiii

USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 14 ENDNOTES

i Armed Conflict Location and Event Data. November 2, 2019. https://www.acleddata.com/data/ ii Lawi Weng, “Armed Group in Myanmar’s Shan State will Release Detained Police Officers,” Irrawaddy (yangon, Myanmar), October 1, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/armed-group-myanmars-shan-state-will- release-detained-police-officers.html iii Lawi Weng, October 1, 2019; Shan Herald Agency for News, “Police officers Remain in Armed Group Custody in Northern Shan State,” BNI News, October 3, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/police-officers-remain- armed-group-custody-northern-shan-state iv Kachin News Group, “Fighting Between Burma Army, KIA Reignites in Kachin STate,” BNI News, OCtober 17, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/fighting-between-burma-army-kia-reignites-kachin-state v ACLED Data. vi Kachin News Group, October 17, 2019 vii ACLED Data. viii Lawi Weng, “Mon Soldier Killed on Myanmar-Thai Border in Karen Attack,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 17, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mon-soldier-killed-myanmar-thai-border-karen- attack.html; ACLED Data ix Lawi Weng, “Mon Soldier Killed in Fighting One Day After Peace Agreement,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 24, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/mon-soldier-killed-fighting-one-day-peace- agreement.html x Ibid. xi LAwi Weng, “Karen, Mon Forces Discuss Fighting on Thai-Myanmar Border”, Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 18, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/karen-mon-forces-discuss-fighting-thai-myanmar- border.html xii Development Media Group, “Tatmadaw MP Objects Proposal to Avoid Targeted Attacks on Public,” BNI News, October 2, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tatmadaw-mp-objects-proposal-avoid-targeted-attacks-public xiii ACLED data. xiv Min Aung Khine, “Bomb Explodes Near New NLD Office in Rakhine State”, Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 10, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/bomb-explodes-near-new-nld-office-rakhine-state.html xv Ibid. xvi Development Media Group, “Tatmadaw Denies Accusation of Using Helicopters in Ponnagyun,” BNI News, October 18, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/tatmadaw-denies-accusation-using-helicopters-ponnagyun; ACLED Data xvii Ibid. xviii AFP, “Number of Hostages ‘Killed’ as Arakan Army, Tatmadaw Clash,” Frontier Myanmar (Yangon, Myanmar), October 27, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/number-of-hostages-killed-as-arakan-army-tatmadaw-clash xix Reuters, “Myanmar Says 14 Hostages Fred in Attacks on Rakhine Rebels,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 28, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-says-14-hostages-freed-attacks-rakhine- rebels.html xx ACLED Data

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xxi ACLED Data; Khonumthung News, “Paletwa Villagers Forced to Serve as Burma Army Porters,” Khonumthung News, October 26, 2019. https://english.khonumthung.org/paletwa-villagers-forced-to-serve-as-burma-army- porters/ xxii RFA, “Myanmar’s Rakhine Conflict Takes Toll on Firefighters, Police,” Radio Free Asia, October 15, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmars-rakhine-conflict-takes-toll-10152019170459.html xxiii Mizzima, “AA Says Firefighters Arrested as They are Reserves for Military,” BNI News, October 16, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/aa-says-firefighters-arrested-they-are-reserves-military xxiv Khonumthung News, “Concern Grows Over Fate of Missing Chin Villagers,” BNI News, October 16, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/concern-grows-over-fate-missing-chin-villagers xxv https://www.mmtimes.com/news/months-after-clashes-13-people-still-missing.html; Irrawaddy article; Khonumthung News, October 16, 2019. xxvi https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/government-myanmars-chin-state-asks-help-finding-missing- civilians.html xxvii Karen Information Center, “Karen Martyrs’ Day Organizers Sentenced to 15 Days Jail – Thousands March to Court in Support of Activists,” BNI, October 3, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/karen-martyrs-day- organizers-sentenced-15-days-jail-thousands-march-court-support-activists xxviii Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Activists Found Guilty for Marking Karen Martyrs’ Day in Myanmar,” Irrawaddy, October 2, 2019, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/activists-found-guilty-marking-karen-martyrs-day-myanmar.html xxix Soe Thu Aung, “District court dismisses revision for Naw Ohn Hla case,” Mizzima, October 19, 2019, http://mizzima.com/article/district-court-dismisses-revision-naw-ohn-hla-case xxx Zaw Zaw Htwe, “Trio Face Legal Action Over Event in Support of Convicted Karen Activists,” Irrawaddy, October 4, 2019, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/trio-face-legal-action-event-support-convicted-karen- activists.html; Shan Herald Agency for News, “NATION-BUILDING DEBACLE: Failure of Burmanization through institutionalized assimilation,” BNI, October 11, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nation-building-debacle- failure-burmanization-through-institutionalized-assimilation xxxi Development Media Group, “UN says Internet shutdown disrupts development activities,” BNI, October 2, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/un-says-internet-shutdown-disrupts-development-activities xxxiiAFP, “UN Calls for Myanmar to End Internet Blackout in Rakhine State,” Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung and Eugene Whong, Radio Free Asia, September 30, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar- un-urges-end-internet-blackout-09302019162528.html xxxiii AFP, “UN Calls for Myanmar to End Internet Blackout in Rakhine State,” Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung and Eugene Whong, Radio Free Asia, September 30, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/myanmar- un-urges-end-internet-blackout-09302019162528.html xxxiv Development Media Group, “UN says Internet shutdown disrupts development activities,” BNI, October 2, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/un-says-internet-shutdown-disrupts-development-activities; Thompson Chau and John Liu, “100 days of internet blackout takes its toll in Rakhine,” Myanmar Times, September 30, 2019, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/100-days-internet-blackout-takes-its-toll-rakhine.html xxxv Local Residents of Nam Ma Village, “Villagers Block Unienergy Staff from Promoting Dam-Building on Nam Ma River in Hsipaw,” Progressive Voice Myanmar, October 10, 2019, https://progressivevoicemyanmar.org/2019/10/10/villagers-block-unienergy-staff-from-promoting-dam-building-on- nam-ma-river-in-hsipaw/; Shan Herald Agency for News, “Nam Ma Locals Take a Stand Against Dam Company Officials,” BNI, October 15, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nam-ma-locals-take-stand-against-dam- company-officials xxxvi Network Media Group, “Hsipaw Locals Stop Dam Company From Entering Village,” BNI, October 15, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/hsipaw-locals-stop-dam-company-entering-village; Local Residents of Nam Ma Village, “Villagers Block Unienergy Staff from Promoting Dam-Building on Nam Ma River in Hsipaw,” Progressive

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Voice Myanmar, October 10, 2019, https://progressivevoicemyanmar.org/2019/10/10/villagers-block-unienergy- staff-from-promoting-dam-building-on-nam-ma-river-in-hsipaw/ xxxvii Network Media Group, “Hsipaw Locals Stop Dam Company From Entering Village,” BNI, October 15, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/hsipaw-locals-stop-dam-company-entering-village; Shan Herald Agency for News, “Nam Ma Locals Take a Stand Against Dam Company Officials,” BNI, October 15, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nam-ma-locals-take-stand-against-dam-company-officials xxxviii Vidhi Doshi, “Five-year-old boy among 30 Rohingya arrested for travelling in Myanmar,” Guardian, October10, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/10/five-year-old-boy-among-30-rohingya- arrested-for-travelling-in-myanmar xxxix Joshua Carroll, “Myanmar jails 21 Rohingya, detains children, for trying to travel,” Al Jazeera, October 10, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/myanmar-jails-21-rohingya-detains-children-travel- 191011000857911.html; Oliver Slow, “The Ambiguous Plight of the Rohingya,” U.S. News, October 21, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-10-21/myanmar-arrests-underscore-the-ambiguous- plight-of-rohingya xl Vidhi Doshi, “Five-year-old boy among 30 Rohingya arrested for travelling in Myanmar,” Guardian, October10, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/10/five-year-old-boy-among-30-rohingya- arrested-for-travelling-in-myanmar xli Vidhi Doshi, October10, 2019; “Myanmar: Rohingya Jailed for Traveling,” Human Rights Watch, October 8, 2019, https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/10/08/myanmar-rohingya-jailed-traveling#; Joshua Carroll, “Myanmar jails 21 Rohingya, detains children, for trying to travel,” Al Jazeera, October 10, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/myanmar-jails-21-rohingya-detains-children-travel-191011000857911.html xlii Vidhi Doshi, “Five-year-old boy among 30 Rohingya arrested for travelling in Myanmar,” Guardian, October10, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/10/five-year-old-boy-among-30-rohingya- arrested-for-travelling-in-myanmar xliii “UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar calls on UN Member States to Remain Vigilant in the Face of the Continued Threat of Genocide,” UN OHCHR, October 23, 2019. https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25197&LangID=E xliv Edith M. Lederer, “UN mission head says risk of genocide recurring in Myanmar,” Washington Post, October 22, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/un-mission-head-says-risk-of-genocide-recurring-in- myanmar/2019/10/22/1704112e-f529-11e9-b2d2-1f37c9d82dbb_story.html xlv UN OHCHR, October 23, 2019. xlvi Ibid xlvii Mizzima, “Myanmar turns down refugee trip to Rakhine to check conditions for repatriation,” Mizzima, October 6, 2019, http://mizzima.com/article/myanmar-turns-down-refugee-trip-rakhine-check-conditions-repatriation xlviii Wai Mar Tun, “Myanmar Rejects Rohingya Refugee Visit to Rakhine State to Inspect Conditions For Repatriation,” Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung and Joshua Lipes, Radio Free Asia, October 3, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rejection-10032019164024.html xlix Ibid. l AFP, “Rohingya Refugees Who Returned to Myanmar on Their Own Say They Still Face Hardship,” Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung and Nandar Chann, Radio Free Asia, October 11, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/rohingya-refugees-who-returned-on-their-own-10112019170843.html; Mizzima, “Twenty-seven refugees return to Myanmar,” Mizzima, October 1, 2019, http://mizzima.com/article/twenty-seven-refugees-return-myanmar li AP, “India, Bangladesh call for safe return of Rakhine refugees,” Myanmar Times, Oct 7, 2019, https://www.mmtimes.com/news/india-bangladesh-call-safe-return-rakhine-refugees.html; Khin Maung Soe, “Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Urges Swift Repatriation of Rohingya,” Translated by Ye Kaung Myint Maung

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and Richard Finney, Radio Free Asia, October 21, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/abe- 10212019171818.html lii Bangla Tribune Desk, “Myanmar not listening to anyone: Hasina,” Bangla Tribune, September 30, 2019, http://en.banglatribune.com/national/news/75449/Myanmar-is-not-listening-to-anyone-PM-Hasina liii Reuters, “Bangladesh to start moving 100,000 Rohingya to flood-prone island next month,” Japan Times, October 21, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/21/asia-pacific/social-issues-asia-pacific/bangladesh- start-moving-100000-rohingya-flood-prone-island-next-month/ liv Benar News, “Bangladesh Official: Rohingya Families Will Move to Bhashan Char,” Radio Free Asia, October 21, 2019, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-10212019172102.html lv BenarNews, “Bangladesh: Plan to Move Rohingya to Bay of Bengal Isle Delayed,” Radio Free Asia (Washington DC) November 6, 2019. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/bangladesh-rohingya-11062019170545.html lvi UNB Dhaka, “US wants postponement of Rohingya relocation to Bhashan Char,” Daily Star, October 24, 2019, https://www.thedailystar.net/rohingya-crisis/rohingya-relocation-dhaka-bhashan-char-us-wants-postponement- 1818118; Reuters, “Bangladesh to start moving 100,000 Rohingya to flood-prone island next month,” Japan Times, October 21, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/21/asia-pacific/social-issues-asia-pacific/bangladesh- start-moving-100000-rohingya-flood-prone-island-next-month/; “Bangladesh says thousands of Rohingya agree relocation to island,” Al Jazeera, October 20, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/bangladesh- thousands-rohingya-agree-relocation-island-191020074723514.html lvii Reuters, “Bangladesh to start moving 100,000 Rohingya to flood-prone island next month,” Japan Times, October 21, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/21/asia-pacific/social-issues-asia-pacific/bangladesh- start-moving-100000-rohingya-flood-prone-island-next-month/ lviii Development Media Group, “Some camps in Arakan State face food shortage,” BNI, September 30, 2019,https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/some-camps-arakan-state-face-food-shortage; Chit Min Tun, “Myanmar IDPs Lack Food and Accommodation After Shan State Attacks,” Irrawaddy, September 27, 2019, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-idps-lack-food-accommodation-shan-state-attacks.html lix Chit Min Tun, “Myanmar IDPs Lack Food and Accommodation After Shan State Attacks,” Irrawaddy, September 27, 2019, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-idps-lack-food-accommodation-shan-state- attacks.html lx Development Media Group, “Some camps in Arakan State face food shortage,” BNI, September 30, 2019,https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/some-camps-arakan-state-face-food-shortage lxi Myanmar Humanitarian Situation Report #8 (August 2019). (Yangon, Myanmar: UNICEF, September 2019). https://www.unicef.org/appeals/files/UNICEF_Myanmar_Humanitarian_Situation_Report_Aug_2019.pdf lxii Karen Information Center, “Villagers panic as water sources turns black – chief minister vows to sue if cement factory responsible,” BNI, October 16, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/villagers-panic-water-sources- turns-black-chief-minister-vows-sue-if-cement-factory-responsible lxiii Zaw Min Naing, “Locals concerned over dead fish in Hpa-an lakes after chief minister's safety assurances,” Eleven Myanmar, October 16, 2019, https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/locals-concerned-over-dead-fish-in-hpa-an- lakes-after-chief-ministers-safety-assurances lxiv Ibid; Karen Information Center, “Villagers panic as water sources turns black – chief minister vows to sue if cement factory responsible,” BNI, October 16, 2019, https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/villagers-panic-water- sources-turns-black-chief-minister-vows-sue-if-cement-factory-responsible lxv Zaw Min Naing, “Locals concerned over dead fish in Hpa-an lakes after chief minister's safety assurances,” Eleven Myanmar, October 16, 2019, https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/locals-concerned-over-dead-fish-in-hpa-an- lakes-after-chief-ministers-safety-assurances lxvi IFES, “Elections in Myanmar: 2015 General Elections” International Foundation for Electoral Systems, November 2 2015.

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lxvii The Carter Center, “Observing Myanmar’s 2015 General Elections Final Report” The Carter Center, August 16 2016. https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/election_reports/myanmar-2015- final.pdf lxviii International Crisis Group Asia Briefing No. 157: Peace and Electoral Democracy in Myanmar (Yangon and Brussels, International Crisis Group, August 6, 2019). https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b157-peace-and- electoral-democracy.pdf lxix Khin Myat Myat Wai, “ANP fears govt may scrap poll in nine townships” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) October 8 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/anp-fears-govt-may-scrap-poll-nine-townships.html lxx Network Media Group, “Kachin Party Worries Conflict Could Lead to Election Restrictions”, BNI Online, October 2 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/kachin-party-worries-conflict-could-lead-election-restrictions lxxi Swe Lei Mon, “Rakhine, Shan clashes raise election worries”, Myanmar Times, October 04, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/rakhine-shan-clashes-raise-election-worries.html lxxii The Carter Center, “Observing Myanmar’s 2015 General Elections Final Report” The Carter Center, August 16 2016. https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/election_reports/myanmar-2015- final.pdf lxxiii San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar Election Commission Seeks to Abolish Military Polling Stations for 2020 Election”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) November 5 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-election- commission-seeks-abolish-military-polling-stations-2020-election.html lxxiv San Yamin Aung, “Myanmar Election Commission Seeks to Abolish Military Polling Stations for 2020 Election,” Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar). November 5, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/legitimacy-myanmar- military-polling-stations-doubt-ahead-2020-election.html lxxv Khin Myat Myat Wai, “NLD to replace many 2020 candidates”, Myanmar Times, October 16, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/nld-replace-many-2020-candidates.html lxxvi Yan Myo Thein. 2019. “Was (NLD) wrong on its MP selection in 2015?” Facebook, October 25, 2019. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10217581361823086&set=a.10201916338367290&type=3&theater lxxvii Wunna Aung, “Dr. Zaw Myint Maung reminded NLD MPs to do self-improvement”, 7Day Daily Newspaper, October 24, 2019. https://7daydaily.com/ lxxviii Eleven Media Group, “No plan to hold by-election before 2020 election: UEC spokesperson”, Eleven Media Group, October 2, 2019. https://elevenmyanmar.com/news/no-plan-to-hold-by-election-before-2020-election-uec- spokesperson lxxix Nan Lwin, “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Acknowledges Myanmar Military’s Unwillingness to Reform Charter” The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) October 23 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/daw-aung-san-suu-kyi- acknowledges-myanmar-militarys-unwillingness-reform-charter.html lxxx Sai Wansai, Facebook, October 25 12.40PM. Post now deleted lxxxi Sai Wansai, Facebook, October 25 12.40PM. Post now deleted lxxxii Htoo Thant, “Government goes high tech in anti-corruption fight”, , Oct 10, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/govt-goes-high-tech-anti-corruption-fight.html lxxxiii Htoo Thant, “Vice President urges police to refuse bribes”, The Myanmar Times, Oct 02, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/vice-president-urges-police-refuse-bribes.html lxxxiv Mon News Agency, “State Auditor General raises concerns: 5 projects totaling more than 10M kyat spent without going to tender”, BNI Multimedia Group, Oct 02, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/state-auditor- general-raises-concerns-5-projects-totaling-more-10m-kyat-spent-without-going

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lxxxv Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Yangon Auditor-General says Regional Government told her not to send FY2017-18 Spending Report to MPs”, The Irrawaddy, Oct 18, 2019 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/yangon-auditor- general-says-regional-govt-told-not-send-fy2017-18-spending-report-mps.html lxxxvi Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Yangon Region Govt Hides From Scrutiny at ‘Friendly’ Press Conference” The Irrawaddy, October 22, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/yangon-region-govt-hides-scrutiny-friendly- press-conference.html lxxxvii Network Media Group, “NCA-Signatory EAOs Agree to Resume Official Peace Talks With Govt, Military”, BNI Multimedia Group, October 15, 2019. https://www.bnionline.net/en/news/nca-signatory-eaos-agree-resume- official-peace-talks-govt-military-0 lxxxviii John Grafilo, “State Counsellor vows to work harder for NCA”, Myanmar Times, October 29, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/state-counsellor-vows-work-harder-nca.html lxxxix Ye Mon, “Govt Announces Three Steps to Advance Peace Process,” Frontier (Yangon, Myanmar) October 29, 2019. https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/govt-announces-three-steps-to-advance-peace-process xc Myat Thura, “Success of peace process hinges on federal union: U Zaw Htay”, Myanmar Times. October 28, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/success-peace-process-hinges-federal-union-u-zaw-htay.html xci Kyaw Kha, “KIO, Myanmar Peace Team, discuss Truce, IDPs”, Irrawaddy, October 18, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/kio-myanmar-peace-team-discuss-truce-idps.html xcii “Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and Deep Sea port, Tanintharyi, Myanmar” Environmental Justice Atlas (Barcelona, Spain) January 1, 2019. https://ejatlas.org/conflict/dawei-sez-tanintharyi-region-myanmar xciii Myat Thura, “Myanmar, Thailand accelerate plans to link, electrify Dawei SEZ”, Myanmar Times, Oct 07, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-thailand-accelerate-plans-link-electrify-dawei-sez.html xcivNan Lwin, “Thailand and Myanmar Agree to Push Ahead With Dawei Special Economic Zone”, The Irrawaddy, Oct 04, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/thailand-myanmar-agree-push-ahead-dawei-special- economic-zone.html xcv Du Pont, Peter, “Decentralizing Power: The Role of State and Region Governments in Myanmar’s Energy Sector”, The Asia Foundation, April 2019. https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Myanmar- Decentralizing-Power_report_11-April-2019.pdf xcvi ADB, “Myanmar: Power Network Development Project - Documents”, Asian Development Bank. (Accessed November 1 2019). https://www.adb.org/projects/50020-002/main#project-documents xcvii Chan Mya Htwe, “Initial technical report on Muse-Mandalay railway project submitted”, The Myanmar Times, May 29, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/initial-technical-report-muse-mandalay-railway-project- submitted.html xcviii Aung Co Oo, “Mandalay-Muse rail project delayed due to unrest in the project area”, The Mizzima, Oct 12, 2019. http://mizzima.com/article/mandalay-muse-rail-project-delayed-due-unrest-project-area xcix Chan Mya Htwe, “Initial technical report on Muse-Mandalay railway project submitted”, The Myanmar Times, May 29, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/initial-technical-report-muse-mandalay-railway-project- submitted.html c The figures in this section are derived from MAA analysis of the budgetary data provided in the following two news reports: Chan Mya Htwe, “Spending on electricity tops budget for the first time”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) October 10 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/spending-electricity-tops-budget-first-time.html; Nan Lwin, “Tracking the Myanmar Govt’s Income Sources and Spending”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) October 22 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/tracking-myanmar-govts-income-sources-spending.html ci Ibid cii Thomas Kean, “ The rush job: Myanmar’s ‘impossible’ emergency power tender”, Frontier Myanmar, September 25, 2019.

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https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-rush-job-myanmars-impossible-emergency-power-tender ciii Chan Mya Htwe, “Spending on electricity tops budget for the first time”, Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) October 10 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/spending-electricity-tops-budget-first-time.html; Nan Lwin, “Tracking the Myanmar Govt’s Income Sources and Spending”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) October 22 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/tracking-myanmar-govts-income-sources-spending.html civ Ibid cv Comment on social media, June 19 2019, 1.37PM.: https://twitter.com/thantmyintu/status/1141243658340933632 cvi Htoo Thant, “Budget deficit expected to hit K7 trillion in next fiscal year” Myanmar Times (Yangon, Myanmar) June 19 2019. cvii Nan Lwin, “Myanmar Climbs Six Spots in World Bank Ease of Doing Business Ranking”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar), October 24, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/myanmar-climbs-six-spots-world-bank-ease- business-ranking.html cviii Kyaw Soe Htet, “Myanmar steps up on company director accountability”, The Myanmar Times, Sept 03, 2019. https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-steps-company-director-accountability.html cix The World Bank, “Ease of Doing Business Report, 2020”, Oct 24, 2019. https://www.doingbusiness.org/. cx Aung Thiha, “Yangon Stock Exchange Due to Let Myanmar-Based Foreigners Trade”, The Irrawaddy (Yangon, Myanmar) https://www.irrawaddy.com/business/yangon-stock-exchange-due-to-let-myanmar-based-foreigners- trade.html cxi Yangon Stock Exchange, “Market summary”. Yangon Stock Exchange, October 30 2019, (Accessed October 30 2019). https://ysx-mm.com/mktdata/market-summary/ cxii World Bank. 2019. “World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019 : Weathering Growing Risks”. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32482 cxiii Nan Lwin, “The World Banks latest report on Myanmar: 5 Takeaways on Growth and Risk”.The Irrawaddy. Oct 17, 2019. https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/world-banks-latest-report-myanmar-5-takeaways-growth- risks.html

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