USAID/BURMA MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT October 2019 Contract Number: 72048218C00004 Myanmar Analytical Activity Acknowledgement This report has been written by Kimetrica LLC (www.kimetrica.com) and Bindez Insights (https://bindez.com) as part of the Myanmar Analytical Activity, and is therefore the exclusive property of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Melissa Earl (Kimetrica) is the author of this report and reachable at [email protected] or at Kimetrica LLC, 80 Garden Center, Suite A-368, Broomfield, CO 80020. The author’s views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. OCTOBER 2019 AT A GLANCE Fighting in Shan and Rakhine States Continues. In Shan State, 20 civilians were injured and 4 killed, and in Rakhine State 25 civilians were injured, at least 8 killed, and thousands displaced. (Pages 2 and 4) Tatmadaw and Kachin Independence Army Conflict Flares Up. For the first time since the Tatmadaw announced its unilateral ceasefire nine months ago, the Tatmadaw and the Kachin Independence Army fought in October. (Page 2) Karen National Liberation Army and Mon National Liberation Army Clash. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA) clashed in a territorial dispute this month in Ye Township, Mon State, and Kawkareik Township. (Page 2) Karen Martyr’s Day Organizers Found Guilty. Karen Martyr’s Day Organizers were sentenced to 15 days in prison for not cooperating with authorities under the Peaceful Assembly and Peaceful Procession Law after organizing a peaceful march to commemorate Karen Martyr’s Day in Yangon. (Page 6) Rohingya Families Arrested for Traveling Without Registration Cards. About 30 Rohingya families, including children, were arrested on their way to Yangon and possibly Malaysia. The families were put in jail after a one-day trial at which the Rohingya were denied legal representation. (Page 7) Thousands of Rohingya refugees agree to relocate. Up to 7,000 Rohingya refugees agreed to relocate to Bhasan Char Island in the Bay of Bengal. Relocation has since been delayed until the UN approves the plan. (Page 8) Government Announces New Technology to Combat Corruption. On October 9, the Government announced it would test a Corruption Prevention Unit toolkit. The new technology, aims to battle corruption, and support government efforts to obtain feedback on critical public services. (Page 10) Peace Talks Between Government and Nationwide Ceasefire Signatories Resume. The Government and the National Ceasefire Agreement Signatories (NCA) did not end with a ceasefire as many had hoped but only plans to continue talking. (Page 11) Governments of Myanmar and Thailand Announce Renewed Commitment to Dawei Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Tanintharyi Region. The $8 billion SEZ and deep sea port will be one of the largest of its kind in Southeast Asia. It is being built in Tanintharyi Region, which has gaping needs in infrastructure. (Page 11) USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 CONFLICT SHAN ● Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) TA’ANG NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY and Tatmadaw fight in Shan State, despite Despite a Brotherhood Alliance unilateral Brotherhood Alliance unilateral ceasefire; ceasefire, fighting continued this month between fighting leads to civilian injuries and the Tatmadaw and the Ta’ang National deaths. Liberation Army (TNLA), a member of the ● Conflict between Tatmadaw and Kachin Brotherhood Alliance. The two forces clashed in Independence Army (KIA) resumes in Hseni, Namhkan, and Kutkai Townships, and Kachin State. four times in Kutkai Township. The TNLA ● Tensions spike in Karen State between suffered one casualty while seven Tatmadaw the Karen National Liberation Army soldiers died.i (KNLA) and the Mon National Liberation Army over a territorial dispute. The fighting between the TNLA and the ● Fierce fighting between Tatmadaw and Tatmadaw serve as a reminder that alliances Arakan Army (AA) in Paletwa, Chin State, between EAOs are often ineffectual and and Rakhine State continues, hurting ceasefires do not necessarily mean an end to civilians. fighting. ● The AA abducts 50 people in two large operations in Rakhine State. On September 29, in Kutkai Township, the TNLA detained four Myanmar police officers ii Figure 1 maps conflict events in Myanmar traveling to Namhsan Town. A TNLA between October 1 and October 31, 2019 as spokesperson reported that the ethnic armed reported by the Armed Conflict and Location organization (EAO) detained the officers because Event Data (ACLED) project. they were wearing civilian clothes and demanding taxes from residents in the Mongsi Village Tract, while claiming they belonged to the TNLA.iii Although the EAO announced they intended to free the officers, at the time of writing there was no news of their release. Table 1 details the number of civilians displaced, injured, and killed this month in Shan State due to fighting between EAOs and the Tatmadaw. Figure 1. Conflict Hot Spot Map (October 1 – October 31, 2019) KIMETRICA LLC, DATA SOURCE: ACLED USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 1 Table 1. Details of civilians displaced, injured and killed in Shan State, September 2019 Location Number of Details of civilians affected civilians affected District Township Muse Kutkai 6 injured ● October 11: three local villagers were injured and six houses damaged when an artillery shell landed in Man Aung Su See village. ● October 23: a refugee man from Pan Ku refugee camp was injured and is in critical condition after stepping on a landmine located near Pang Ku village. ● October 24: artillery shells fired during a battle between the Tatmadaw and TNLA fell into Pado Phaka village, injuring a mother and daughter. Kyaukme Kyaukme 5 injured, 3 killed ● October 2: a 32-year-old man was shot dead by an unknown armed group. ● October 8: one villager was killed and another injured when an artillery shell exploded while the villagers were working on a tea farm. ● October 10: a man was injured and a woman killed after they stepped on a landmine while working on a tea farm. ● October 13: three monks were injured driving over a landmine near Pan Ta Moc village. Namhsan 1 killed ● October 9: a woman working on a tea farm was killed stepping on a landmine. Lashio Hseni 9 injured ● October 9: seven civilians were injured when the TNLA ambushed a convoy of Tatmadaw trucks. ● October 11: a Lisu ethnic couple was injured after an artillery shell hit their house KACHIN The Kachin Independence Organization (the political arm of the KIA) announced that, despite TATMADAW - KACHIN INDEPENDENCE the fighting, it would continue to push for peace ARMY through political negotiations, and ordered the Following the expiration of the Tatmadaw’s nine- KIA not to attack Tatmadaw troops.vi The KIA month unilateral ceasefire in September, the claimed that when the Tatmadaw attacked the Tatmadaw and the Kachin Independence Army KIA regiment on October 19, its fighters did not (KIA) fought in Mohnyin Township on October fire back.vii 14.iv No one was killed during the incident. However, according to the Kachin News Group, KAREN the Tatmadaw forced two villagers to be their guides. The villagers stepped on a landmine set KAREN NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY - up by the KIA and were injured.v The Tatmadaw MON NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY also attacked a KIA regiment on October 19. On October 17, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) carried out two simultaneous attacks on the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA): one in Ye Township, Mon State, and USAID.GOV OCTOBER 2019 MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC REPORT | 2 one in Kawkareik Township, Karen State. One retaliate, which would explain this month’s member of the MNLA was killed, and according attacks. The EAOs appear to have stopped to the Karen Information Centre, two KNLA fighting but further monitoring of the area is soldiers were also killed.viii recommended. Relations between the two EAOs were tense ARAKAN ARMY - TATMADAW after the MNLA arrested seven members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), a On September 30, in response to the violence breakaway group of the KNLA in September. against civilians, the Rakhine State Hluttaw The attacks were sparked after the MNLA approved a motion urging the Rakhine State destroyed a Karen flag demarcating the border Government to guarantee that the Tatmadaw between Karen and Mon territories. On and the AA will stop targeting civilians.xii The October 23, both sides issued a suspension of motion passed, though the Tatmadaw denied hostilities statement and reached an agreement deliberately attacking civilians. on contested territory in Kawkareik Township. Despite the truce, the MNLA and KNLA fought Throughout October, the conflict between the again in Ye township, killing one MNLA soldier.ix AA and the Tatmadaw continued, primarily in MNLA’s Lt-Col Saw She Win said that troops on Rathedaung and Minbya Townships in Rakhine both sides must listen to their authority’s State and Paletwa Township in Chin State. commands, suggesting that the fighting on However, the Tatmadaw and the AA also fought October 23 was not authorized by KNLA or in Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, and Mrauk- MNLA leadership.x U Townships. Figure 2 shows all the actors in the conflict, and the number of violent incidents Civilians in the affected areas were caught in the between October 1 and October 31, 2019, as fighting. The Irrawaddy reported that over 50 reported by the Armed Conflict Location & ethnic Mon civilians have fled since fighting began. Event Data Project (ACLED).xiii A number of villagers said that the KNLA destroyed their homes and raided their food In Buthidaung Township, a bomb exploded near supplies.xi According to the Karen Information a site where a new NLD party office is under Centre, one Karen civilian was killed in the construction.xiv No one was injured, but local fighting.