Congress,the Lok Dal, and the Middle-PeasantCastes: An Analysisof the 1977and 1980 ParliamentaryElections in Uttar Pradesh* Paul R. Brass [HE DRAMATICCHANGES that have taken place in Indian politics I in the past fiveyears have theirroots in the post-Independence politicalhistory of northIndia, particularlyof the stateof Uttar Pra- desh,the largeststate in the Indian Union and the home of fourof fiveof the primeministers of the country.It has been widelynoted that the "Emergency"imposed upon India by Mrs. Gandhi fortwo yearsbetween 1975 and 1977 affectedthe northIndian statesmore than the south and that Mrs. Gandhi's overwhelmingdefeat in the 1977 electionsand the success of Janata was principallya con- sequenceof the nearlytotal sweep of the parliamentaryseats in that electionin everystate in the north.By the same token,the abilityof the Congressto recoup mostof its lossesin the northIndian Hindi- speakingstates by winning144 seatsthere in 1980,compared to only 2 in 1977,made it possiblefor the Congressand Mrs. Gandhi to re- gain powerat the Center. In fact,it is no exaggerationto say thatthe conflictsfor control of *Researchfor this article was made possibleby a grantfrom the Special CurrencyProgram of the SmithsonianInstitution, which provided funds for me to visitIndia in December 1979. I am especiallygrateful to FrancineBerkowitz of the SmithsonianInstitution for her part in fa- cilitatingarrangements for this grant and the trip.I also owe thanksto CarolynBrown for the use of hervan, driver,and researchassistant-Prahlad Misra-who touredwith me in western U.P.; to Dr. D.P. Singh,Professor and Head, Departmentof Public Administration,University of Lucknow,who providedme hospitalityin Lucknow; and to his children,Ravi and Ma- hendraSingh, who touredwith me in Oudh and the EasternDistricts. Finally, I want to thank JohnWood, Allen Kornmesser,and an anonymousreviewer for Pacific Affairs, all of whom read the firstdraft of thisarticle and made detailedcriticisms and suggestionsthat substantially af- fectedthe finalresult. The responsibilityfor statements of fact,interpretation, and opinionis, of course,my own. 5 PacificAffairs the governmentof India that have been going on forthe past five years,during which the Emergencyand the 1977 and 1980 elections have been dramaticfocal points, have been almostentirely a playing- out on the national stage of social and political conflictsthat have theirorigin in the northIndian statesof Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, whichcontain between them approximately 150 millionpeople. The leading political actors and forceswho have articulatedthose con- flicts,excepting Moraji Desai, all have come fromU.P. and Bihar: Mrs. Gandhi, Charan Singh,Raj Narain and H.N. Bahuguna from U.P.; JayaprakashNarayan and JagjivanRam fromBihar; and the Jan Sangh, with its principalstrength in U.P., Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh.The issuesthat have overlaidthe strugglefor power at the Centeralso have derivedlargely, though not exclusively,from per- sistentpolitical and social problemsin thenorth: Hindu-Muslim con- flictand violence,widespread student unrest, the differentialimpact ofthe Green Revolution on regionsand ruralsocial classes,the failure of industrializationto provide off-farmemployment for the rural poor,and the consequentincreasing discontent of the low castes and landlesslaborers in the countryside. The significanceof the northin the Emergencyand in the 1977 and 1980 electionshas been widelynoted, but analysisof the sources of its importancein the social and political conflictsof the region have been neglectedin the undue and misplacedattempts to read intothe election results a greatvictory for Indian democracyor to ex- plain themin termsof the specificissues articulated during the cam- paigns.The 1977 electionresults were hailed by mostobservers of In- dian politicsas a virtuallyunprecedented restoration of a democratic systemby popular vote and as a confirmationof the deep com- mitmentof the Indian populace,rich and poor alike,to the values of democracyand parliamentarism.Specific factorsassociated with Mrs. Gandhi'sregime also werepinpointed as particularlyimportant in her defeat: the sterilizationcampaign, demolitionof squatter houses,the curtailmentof civil libertiesin general,and the increased prominenceof Mrs. Gandhi's son, Sanjay. Similar commentswere made about the 1980 elections.Once again, journalistspraised the Indian public fortheir commitment to democracyby throwingout yetanother unpopular regime. Again also, specificfactors were iden- tifiedas especiallyimportant to the result-namely,prices and short- ages of basic commoditiesand the discontentof the Indian public withthe "politicsof defection." Yet, clearlythe more sweepinginterpretations of the 1977 and 6 The 1977 and 1980 ParliamentaryElections in UttarPradesh 1980elections are wrong:since Mrs. Gandhi neverexpressed any gen- uine regretsfor imposing the Emergencyregime, it is not possibleto see bothelections as expressingdeep commitmentby Indian votersto democracy.As forthe morespecific explanations, they are not wrong, only superficial:they ignorethe deeper patternsrevealed in these electionsthat have developedduring the past thirtyyears of north In- dian politicaland social historyand that set the stage forthe Emer- gencyand its overthrow,as well as forthe returnof Mrs. Gandhi to power. The purposeof this article is to examinethese underlying patterns ofbehavior of the leading social forcesin U.P. in theelections of 1977 and 1980 and to trace the developmentof the social conflictsthat were expressedin thosetwo elections.Although this article focusses on thestate of U.P., manyof the patterns described here apply also to Bihar.' The remainderof the articleis divided into fourparts. The firstpart summarizes the main featuresof the electoral history of U.P. and offersan explanationfor the rise of the Janata party and its sweep of the 1977 elections.The second part examinesthe break-up of theJanata coalitionand the settingof the stage forthe 1980 elec- tions.The thirdpart presentsa detailed analysisof the electoralhis- toryof fiverural constituencies in U.P. The conclusionsare presented in the fourthpart. THE ELECTORAL HISTORY OF U.P. AND THE RISE OF THE JANATA PARTY Table 1 presentsthe resultsof the seven parliamentaryelections in U.P. Three featuresof thoseresults should be noted.The firstcon- cernsthe overall decline of supportfor the Congress:having achieved its peak electoralsupport in 1952,when it polled 53 per cent of the vote,it began to declinethereafter to 46 per centin 1957,38 per cent in 1962,and to less than one-thirdof the popular vote in 1967. Al- thoughthe Congresspopular vote shareincreased markedly in 1971, it droppedeven more severely in 1977and thenreverted to somewhat above one-thirdof the popular vote in 1980.It is especiallyimportant to note that the decline of the Congresswas mostpronounced in a tractof eightagriculturally prosperous districts near Delhi, between the Ganges and the Jumna rivers,known as the Upper Doab. This I See HarryW. Blair,"Rising Kulaks and BackwardClasses in Bihar: Social Change in the Late 1970s,"Economic and Political Weekly, XV, no. 2 (January12, 1980),pp. 64-74, and Prad- han H. Prasad, "Rising Middle Peasantryin NorthIndia," Economicand PoliticalWeekly, XV, nos. 5, 6, and 7, Annual Number(February 1980), pp. 215-19. 7 TABLE 1. PERCENTAGE OF VOTES POLLED BY POLITICAL PARTIES IN UTTAR PRADESH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, 1952-1980 PoliticalParty* 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 Congress 52.99 46.29 38.20 33.04 48.56 24.99 35.90 Congress(0) (Foundedin 1969) 8.58 - - SocialistParty 12.94 5.67 8.64 - 0.24 - - Kisan Mazdoor Praja Party (KMPP) 4.90 - - - Praja SocialistParty (PSP) 15.34 10.35 3.74 0.23 SamyuktaSocialist Party (SSP) (Foundedin 1964) 10.27 4.10 Jan Sangh 7.29 14.79 17.57 22.58 12.28 Hindu Mahasabha (HMS) 1.91 - 1.39 - 0.07 0.12 ScheduledCaste Federation/ RepublicanParty of India (RPI) 2.88 - 4.27 4.07 - - 0.16 CommunistParty of India (CPI) 0.35 1.67 3.63 3.75 3.70 1.10 1.63 CommunistParty of India, Marxist(CPM) (Foundedin 1964) 0.71 0.19 0.10 0.10 Swatantra (Founded in 1959) 5.04 4.77 0.05 BharatiyaKranti Dal (BKD) (Founded in 1967) 12.70 Janata/BharatiyaLok Dal (BLD foundedin 1974,Janata in 1977) 68.08 22.57 (BLD) Lok Dal (Founded in 1979) 29.02 Independentsand Unsuccessful Parties 16.76 16.24 10.91 17.08 9.31 5.61 10.62 Total 100.02 100.00 100.00 100.01 100.01 100.00 100.00 Sources:Compiled fromofficial reports of the ElectionCommission of India and * fromG.G. Mirchandani,The People's Verdict (New Delhi: Vikas, 1980). All partiesthat won at least one seat in one electionare included.The KMPP also is includedin 1952,though it did not win a seat, to facilitatecom- of parison the 1957 PSP votewith the votesof its two pre-mergerprogenitors, the SP and the KMPP. The figurefor the Socialist Partyin 1957 is forthe Lohia Socialists,who brokeaway fromthe PSP and foughtthe 1957 electionsas Independents. The 1977 and 1980 ParliamentaryElections in UttarPradesh tractis also the home of ChaudhuriCharan Singh and the centerof his Jat caste in U.P., the leading owner-cultivatorcaste not only of the Upper Doab, but of the adjoiningstate of Haryana as well. Fi- nally,it is also themost politicized region of thestate with the highest turnoutrate in everyelection. In the parliamentaryconstituencies of thesedistricts, the median vote share forthe Congressdeclined from 58.2 per cent in 1952 to 30.3 per cent in 1980. In 1952,the Congress won everyseat in thesedistricts. In 1980,the Congress won only2