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Conduct of Monetary Policy, Report of the Federal Reserve Board CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY Report of the Federal Reserve Board pursuant to the Full Enipluyment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 PX. 95-523 the State of the Economy HEARING BEFOKE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY OF THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FIFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JULY 22, 1998 Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking and Financial Services Serial No. 105-70 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1998 Fw sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, Washington, DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-057571-0 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis HOUSE COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES JAMES A. LEACH, Iowa, Chairman BILL McCOLLUM, Florida, Vice Chairman MARGE ROUKEMA, New Jersey HENRY B. GONZALEZ, Texas. DOUG K. BEREUTER, Nebraska JOHN J. LAFALCE, New York RICHARD H. BAKER, Louisiana BRUCE F. VENTO, Minnesota RICK LAZIO, New York CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York SPENCER BACHUS, Alabama BARNEY FRANK, Massachusetts MICHAEL N. CASTLE, Delaware PAUL E. KANJORSKI, Pennsylvania PETER T. KING, New York JOSEPH P. KENNEDY II, Massachusetts TOM CAMPBELL, California MAXINE WATERS, California EDWARD R. ROYCE, California CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma LUIS V. GUTIERREZ, Illinois JACK METCALF, Washington LUCILLE ROYBAL-ALLARD, California ROBERT W. NEY, Ohio THOMAS M. BARRETT, Wisconsin ROBERT L. EHRLICH JR., Maryland NYDIA M. VELAZQUEZ, New York BOB BARR, Georgia MELVIN L. WATT, North Carolina JON D. FOX, Pennsylvania MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York SUE W. KELLY, New York GARY L. ACKERMAN, New York RON PAUL, Texas KEN BENTSEN, Texas DAVE WELDON, Florida JESSE L. JACKSON, JR., Illinois JIM RYUN, Kansas CAROLYN C. KILPATRICK, Michigan MERRILL COOK, Utah JAMES H. MALONEY, Connecticut VINCE SNOWBARGER, Kansas DARLENE HOOLEY, Oregon BOB RILEY, Alabama JULIA M. CARSON, Indiana RICK HILL, Montana ROBERT A. WEYGAND, Rhode Island PETE SESSIONS, Texas BRAD SHERMAN, California STEVEN c. LATOURETTE, Ohio MAX SANDLIN, Texas DONALD A. MANZULLO, Illinois GREGORY MEEKS, New York MARK FOLEY, Florida BARBARA LEE, California WALTER B. JONES JR., North Carolina VIRGIL GOODE, Virginia BILL REDMOND, New Mexico VITO FOSSELLA, New York BERNARD SANDERS, Vermont SUBCOMMITTEE ON DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY MICHAEL N. CASTLE, Delaware, Chairman JON D. FOX Pennsylvania, Vice Chairman STEVEN c. LATOURETTE, Ohio MAXINE WATERS, California FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BARNEY FRANK, Massachusetts JACK METCALF, Washington JOSEPH P. KENNEDY II, Massachusetts ROBERT W. NEY, Ohio BERNARD SANDERS, Vermont BOB BARR, Georgia CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York RON PAUL, Texas MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York DAVE WELDON, Florida JESSE L. JACKSON, JR., Illinois MARGE ROUKEMA, New Jersey MELVIN L. WATT, North Carolina DOUG K. BEREUTER, Nebraska DARLENE HOOLEY, Oregon MERRILL COOK, Utah JULIA M. CARSON, Indiana DONALD A, MANZULLO, Illinois GREGORY MEEKS, New York MARK FOLEY, Florida BARBARA LEE, California (II) Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONTENTS Page Hearing held on: July 22, 1998 1 Appendix July 22, 1998 45 WITNESSES WEDNESDAY, JULY 22, 1998 Greenspan, Hon. Alan, Chairman, Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve System 1] APPENDIX Prepared statements: Castle, Hon. Michael N 46 Greenspan, Hon. Alan 49 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Greenspan, Hon. Alan: Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Pursuant to the Full Employ- ment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, July 21, 1998 73 Written response to questions from Hon. Ken Bentsen 110 Written response to questions from Hon. Michael N. Castle 104 AFL-CIO, prepared statement, David A. Smith, Director of Public Policy 115 (III) Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY WEDNESDAY, JULY 22, 1998 U.S.HousE OF REPRESENTATIVES, SUBCOMMITTEE ON DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY, COMMITTEE ON BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES, Washington, DC. The subcommittee met, pursuant to call, at 10 a.m., in room 2128, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Michael N. Castle, [chairman of the subcommittee], presiding. Present: Chairman Castle; Representatives Lucas, Metcalf, Paul, Weldon, Roukema, Waters, Frank, Kennedy, C. Maloney of New York, Hinchey, Jackson, Watt and Lee, Chairman CASTLE. The hearing will come to order, and we wel- come you, Mr. Chairman, again, as we do twice a year. We meet today to receive the annual midyear report of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the Conduct of Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy, and, as you know, this is mandated in the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. Mr. Chairman, we welcome you back to the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services and our Subcommittee on Domes- tic and International Monetary Policy. The American economy continues to perform well, due in part to the work of the Federal Reserve. We are not greedy, but we would be very grateful if you can just announce that the current good eco- nomic times will continue for at least another 88 months. Let me just say this: Sometimes when I give graduation speech- es, I tell a little story about a man standing on a plain giving a speech, and he sees a speck in the horizon, and he doesn't know what it is. And then after a couple of minutes the speck grows, and then he realizes it is a herd of buffalo. And then he realizes the herd of buffalo is getting closer, and he can distinguish what they are, and he also realizes if he is not through his speech in ten min- utes, that he is going to be overrun by the buffalo. With the idea that I will speak for ten minutes—I will now cut that to eight min- utes by the way. The kids didn't even like the ten minutes, I learned. But I feel the same way about Asia and with respect to what I would like to personally extract from this hearing today, and I real- ize it is very important in your case to make prepared statements, but it terms of our questions and answers, we need to address those particular questions. (l) Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis I feel that Asian economic problems came upon us unexpectedly. I don't think we were prepared for it at any segment of the Amer- ican economy all the way from intelligence to the Government to the private sector. I think it has been more extensive in terms of involving countries than perhaps originally anticipated. I think the longevity of it has extended at least as long as anybody has said, and perhaps longer. And, of course, the threat of it with respect to Japan is perhaps greater than we ever expected. I think the counterpoint to all this, and some of this is set forth, I have a story from U.S. News and World Report, "Will Japan Trip the Bull?", the highlights that you talked about, half your testi- mony before the Senate yesterday, But a good portion of what has happened so far has actually, in my judgment, been beneficial to the American economy in terms of reduced prices for commodities, for oil, for finished products, in terms of capital coming into the United States to avoid problems in other countries. And, yes, there have been some slowdowns on some orders and maybe hitting par- ticular segments of our economy, but for the most part you can al- most make an argument as good for positive as has been negative. And yet I have that feeling that we are getting to a precipice at which point it is going to become quite negative rather rapidly, and are we ready for tbat? Do we really anticipate where that is going? When you visited us in February of this year, we discussed our concern over the troubled Japanese economy. The change in the Government of Japan has confirmed, in my judgment, that those concerns were valid. The Asian economic uncertainty, and espe- cially the status of Japan's economy, I believe, are almost certainly the greatest threat to our own economic health. That is a personal judgment; you haven't stated that. More than inflation or any do- mestic problem we have, I think that is by far the greatest threat to our own economic health, and I hope that you will share with us today through the question and answer period, as well as your speech, your impressions regarding the degree of seriousness with which the Japanese authorities are approaching the solution of their economic problems. The rest of Asia is still, at best, digging out of their own prob- lems. Maybe their problems are even worsening, and success, in my judgment, depends heavily on Japan. The danger of spreading this international economic flu seems even more real when we watch the situation in Russia. If oil prices continue to hover around the current low levels, Mexico may again be in crisis, and others in Latin America could follow, so I hope you will comment on the dangers of the regional economic problems re- inforcing each other, what they may mean for the world economy. As you know, the debate continues to rage right here in Congress almost daily this week, as a matter of fact, over whether the United States should contribute an additional $18 billion to the International Monetary Fund to help meet international economic instability, and I am very eager to hear your views on the role of IMF in addressing these problems. While we look to you to alert us to what we should be worrying about, we also expect that when you address the House, the mar- kets will move up, as opposed to occasions when you address the Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St.
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