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Almughrabi-Dissertation-2018 INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL TURBULENCES IMPACT ON TRAVEL AND TOURISM by ABEER OMAR ALMUGHRABI Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Arlington in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT ARLINGTON August 2018 Copyright © by Abeer Almughrabi 2018 All Rights Reserved i Acknowledgements Praise is to Allah the almighty, the most generous and merciful for giving me strength, patience, determination, and wisdom to finish this extremely challenging milestone in my life. I would like to start with thanking my dissertation committee. I am thankful for my outstanding chair, Professor Barbara Becker, for her extraordinary supervision and dedication directing my path throughout this long journey and brighten my way with her words of wisdom. My sincere appreciation to my co-chair, Professor Ardeshir Anjomani, for his kindness, encouragement, and for helping me with his priceless experience to shape the dissertation work. I am most thankful for my committee member, Professor Rod Hissong, for dedicating countless hours and providing me with valuable guidance to ensure the ultimate modeling. My deepest respect to all my committee members! I would like to express my genuine gratitude to my wonderful family. Thanks to my parents, Omar Almughrabi and Asma Almomani, and siblings, for their unconditional love, help, and inspiration throughout my life. Also, I am extremely thankful for my children, Fares and Jude Alfayez, and nephew, Azad Alkurdi, for their patience, understanding, love, and most importantly for their astonishing cooperation. I am most indebted to my amazing husband and life partner for all his extraordinary assistance and exceptional support and care. Zaid Alfayez is a one of a kind! Thank you all for believing in me and helping in making my dream come true. I would like to recognize the kind spirit, attention, consideration, and support I received from my relatives, friends, and colleagues. I am specifically thankful for everyone that has helped me through providing data, interviews, and education. Last but not least, I am also grateful to the University of Texas at Arlington for providing me with this opportunity to expand my knowledge and sharpen my academic and analytic skills. September 4, 2018 ii Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my parents for always being there for me. And Dedicated to my great country, Jordan! September 4, 2018 iii Abstract INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL TURBULENCES IMPACT ON TRAVEL AND TOURISM ABEER ALMUGHRABI, PhD The University of Texas at Arlington, 2018 Supervising Professor: Barbara Becker and Ardeshir Anjomani Tourism is a major economic development force, but it appears that international political turbulence has an impact on tourism. Whether the impact of political instability on tourism is a negative or a positive one is the scope of this study. In addition, Substitution and Spillover Effects that occur as a result of political instability impact on tourism are analyzed to provide additional information about the impact on safe countries adjacent to political instability/ or located within the same region of the turmoil. This research attempts to prove that there is a correlation between international political turbulence and tourism. In addition, it tries to provide evidence about the Substitution and Spillover Effects and the factors that contribute to the existence of one but the other. Jordan, a country in the Middle East region that depends heavily on tourism for its economic development, is studied as a tool to measure this impact. Panel Data Analysis using the Fixed Effect Model and the Random Effect Model to prove or disprove the research hypotheses was used. The results provide that the tourism is associated with political turmoil only when the turmoil is taking place in the Middle East and North Africa region. Moreover, the Substitution iv Effect is correlated with international tourism that arrives from outside the Middle East and North Africa region. On the contrary, the Spillover Effect was proved to have a regional impact, within the region of turmoil. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. x Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Statement and Research significance................................................................. 5 1.3 Research Purpose and Questions...................................................................................... 8 Literature Review ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Mainstream Theories ...................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Tourism Theory ...................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Socioeconomic Theory ........................................................................................... 18 2.1.2.1 Tourist decision making .................................................................................. 19 2.1.3 Terrorism Theory .................................................................................................... 27 2.2 Tourism, terrorism, and Political Instability .................................................................. 31 2.3 Empirical Studies about Tourism and Methodologies ................................................... 38 2.4 Case Study: Jordan ......................................................................................................... 46 2.5 Research Status and Gaps .............................................................................................. 58 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 62 3.1 Research Objectives and Plan ........................................................................................ 62 3.2 Population Sample.......................................................................................................... 64 3.3 Data Sources ................................................................................................................... 64 3.3.1 Jordanian Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities ...................................................... 65 3.3.2 Global Terrorism Database ..................................................................................... 65 3.3.3 Uppsala Conflict Data Program .............................................................................. 65 3.3.4 World Bank Indicators ............................................................................................ 65 3.3.5 Center for Systemic................................................................................................. 66 3.3.6 Jordanian Department of Statistics ......................................................................... 66 3.3.7 World Heritage Center UNESCO ........................................................................... 66 3.3.8 Royal Jordanian Airlines and the Jordanian Ministry of Transport ........................ 66 3.3.9 Other Data Sources ................................................................................................. 67 vi 3.4 Analysis Techniques and Steps ...................................................................................... 67 3.5 Regression Models, Variables, and Hypotheses ............................................................ 71 3.5.1 Regression Model One ............................................................................................ 72 3.5.2 Regression Model Two ........................................................................................... 87 Results and Discussion ................................................................................................. 93 4.1 Statistical Tests: Independent Variables Selection (Model One) ................................... 93 4.1.1 Summary of Statistics ............................................................................................. 93 4.1.2 Multi-collinearity Test (VIF) .................................................................................. 95 4.1.3 Pearson Correlation ................................................................................................. 95 4.1.4 Normality Test ........................................................................................................ 96 4.1.4.1 Shapiro-Wilk W test for Normal Data ............................................................. 96 4.1.4.2 P-P and Q-Q plot tests for Normal Data .......................................................... 97 4.1.4.3 Kernel Density estimate ................................................................................
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