Thailand Company Focus Thai Airways Bloomberg: THAI TB | Reuters: THAI.BK DBS Group Research . Equity 1 Apr 2011 BUY Bt37.75 SET : 1047.48 Mitigating Japan impact Price Target : 12-month Bt 60.25 Reason for Report : Post non-deal roadshow note Positive response from investors at Europe NDR Potential Catalyst: Launching low cost airlines, exit from SOE status, and despite concerns over Japan impact and fuel prices drop in fuel price. Effective fuel hedging and timely surcharge Analyst adjustment to mitigate rising fuel prices; also Nalyne VIRIYASATHIEN +662 657 7823 implementing measures to offset lower Japan traffic
[email protected] Continued strong growth momentum; maintain BUY for attractive valuation and 60% upside potential to Bt60.25 TP Price Relative With Japan contributing 11% Bt Relative Index Limited impact from Japan. 220 of passenger revenue, the recent turmoil in Japan affected . 55 80 THAI. But earnings should not be impacted substantially 45 . 80 170 because lower cabin factor on routes to Tokyo Narita and 35 . 80 120 Haneda (c. 50-60%) is being offset by robust cabin factor 25 . 80 70 (c.85%) on the remaining three Japanese routes to Fuguoka, 15 . 80 5 . 80 20 Nagoya and Osaka. These cities are further from the troubled 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, THAI has Thai Airways ( LHS ) Relative SET INDEX ( RHS ) responded by cutting one flight/day to Tokyo Narita and increased frequency to Korea. Since the earthquake, THAI’s Forecasts and Valuation cabin factors on routes to China and Korea have edged FY Dec (Bt m) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F higher, implying the substitution effect.