CORONA STIMULUS & RECOVERY ©

SERIES REPORT # 2

N A T I O N A L G O V E R N A N C E E F F E C T I V E N E S S

in line with

ACCEPTED BUDGETTING, PLANNING & ENGAGEMENT PROTOCOLS

ROBERT GIBBONS

18 NOVEMBER 2020 ©

see copyright statement on last page

INTRODUCTION

Bubonic Plague hit Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne in 1900 and the Sydney response was the world’s most famous, the “social laboratory of the world”. Governance was key to that response, medicine was supportive.

120 years later the Novel Coronavirus thence COVID-19 was mayhem, warnings had been ignored and Australia was sliding backwards economically. There is supposed to be a self-correcting mechanism called “budget repair” when a government finds it mismanaged bushfires and rorts so that the next one would be better planned and organised.

The opposite happened, repair (MYEFO) was cancelled, delays became critical, mistakes abounded as the “Canberra Bubble” did not know how to prepare a “plan” as I had done in 2 days when BHP announced the closure of steelmaking in Newcastle in 1997.

The States pushed PM Morrison into setting up a cooperative National Cabinet on 13 March 2020. It emerged from the Canberra Bubble without any explanation of logic, objectives, modus operandi or budget, and this analyst predicted it would fail as soon as a member’s self-interest clashed with the collective view – and that was a safe bet as NSW’s Premier, Glady Berejiklian, is an habitual renegade and regularly attacks her peers. It has been under the control of the PM’s department head who has a NSW reputation for negative practices (he used to report to Berejiklian).

Revelations that the PM had secretly met with his political compatriot, Leader of the Queensland Opposition, ostensibly to overturn national consensus on border security in her political self- interest, destroyed what little was left after the Morrison Government and its acolytes “dog whistled” right-wing dissidents into attacking politicians and journalists. The PM as-capriciously announced a new “hot spot” approach but expressing his intention to not be out-voted again.

The news that COVID-19 is recrudescing quickly in safer parts of the world reinforces the need to improve governance in an holistic sense, as in the companion volume, BORDER WARS: MEDICINE, MANAGEMENT & CONFUSION. The internecine warfare waged by NSW is in the hands of the gods, to be stilled only by reconciliation around this report.

CONTENTS

OVERVIEW OF ISSUES & SWOT ...... 3 CONTEXT: MARCH 2020 ...... 8 The Bubble ...... 10 Stimulus Stages ...... 12 OECD Guidelines and Imputed Critical Framework ...... 17 SOLUTIONS ...... 25 National Cabinet ...... 29 MEEFO, Local Resilience Vs closedowns ...... 32 Local Government ...... 34 Systematic Infrastructure/Productivity & Infrastructure Australia ...... 36 Peril & Lost Opportunities: IP theft ...... 42

2 Overview of Issues & SWOT

The National Cabinet was an unexpected concept that emerged as, in mid-March 2020, the States and Territories pushed a dithering PM Morrison to start to organise a proper Corona response. The PM’s press release of that date said, quoted in full here, “A new National Cabinet, made up of the Prime Minister, Premiers and Chief Ministers has been set up and will meet at least weekly to address the country’s response to the coronavirus, COVID-19.”

He added The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC, led by the Commonwealth’s Chief Medical Officer and comprising the chief health and medical officers from each jurisdiction, together with the National Coordination Mechanism convened by the Department of Home Affairs, will be the primary bodies that will advise the National Cabinet. The National Coordination Mechanism will work across all jurisdictions, industry and key stakeholders to ensure a consistent approach to managing the impacts of this pandemic beyond immediate health issues.

It comprises all Premiers and Chief Ministers with the NZ PM joining in relation to discussions over an air transport “bubble” between the two countries. Cabinet secrecy was observed until the PM gave access privileges to his business cronies, following which he has no case to keep the Minutes secret.

On 25 March the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission was announced and “The National Security Committee of Cabinet's COVID-19 Taskforce and the Expenditure Review Committee of Cabinet continue to take decisions that determine the Commonwealth's response to the global COVID-19 pandemic". Given secrecy, it is not clear whether this is the mess it looks like.

February had been wasted as my experience in Newcastle’s response to the announcement of closure of steelmaking showed that that was the right time to plan and prepare – I have said the arrangements should have been in place by the 20th, I had and have that experience but the Federal executives are not experienced in the real word and blew away any chance of saving the initial downturn which was reported to be well over 1 million jobs lost, fast.

The detailed chronologies have been covered on the stimulus-stupidity.com website and will not be repeated here. They do not represent a well-tuned bicycle, more of a donkey’s path through the corn fields. The PM has repeatedly said he had a plan but that is like saying his fused ally, the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has a fine management record (which is covered at sydneyimprovementpolitics.com). He was continuously contradicted as he blundered through one failed episode after another, with increasing revelations of corruption and waste, and even the withdrawal of labour in regions because the workers earn more off-site and idle.

There was no question that a national approach was the right way to go, given the Federal Government’s Constitutional and legislative primacy. Border issues were paramount, most states and Territories had concerns but NSW was primary having let in 4 cruise liners with infected cases, with no effective sign of the promised federal Border Force lead. While those conniptions have largely settled down – Border Force remaining a sticking point – further progress requires a re- think of relationships and roles in various areas including aged care, quarantine (with Fed blame- shifting), and levelling-our risks and solutions between jurisdictions (harmonisation).

3 The graphic is a representation of how well the Federal Government’s “stimulus” package achieves stimulus. The mention of the $20 billion is from media which has not been confirmed through perusal of Budget documents yet.

• $20 billion commitment to SMEs • Youth employment

• Positive measures Reversal of debt obsession under duress • Tax cuts

Degree of • Lie abt SME support – malice re food & Stimulation Negative & wasteful accommodation, arts & recreation, education measures & others as in OECD • Corruption of National Cabinet • Rejection of great ideas including Goanna Transit Bridge, Bondi Beach & Syd Uni expressnets, and Local Govt revitalisation • Continuation of catastrophic NSW mistakes

Ethical & Moral Failures Ø Rozelle congestion entanglement & Nthn • Theft of ideas being used Beaches impossible tollway • Misogyny & abuse Ø Metros’ intrinsic capacity strangulation • Breaches of codes & which is unsustainable – must be paused protocols including lobbyist conflicts & re-planned via strategic process

A small observation, a hindsight, is that two fine journalists later published historical parallels with the Spanish Influenza in 1919 where the procedures had been worked out. I am the historian of bubonic plague and I’d say the same. Neither case came to mind in time which reflects Australians’ lack of appreciation for past heroes, as the governments reinvented the wheel but so slowly.

Moreover, the primary characteristics of the processes were these three themes: 1. There is no logic or system in the PM’s camp which comprises his Office and his Department and Treasury, and the main Big Business lobbies such the Business Council of Australia, the Menzies Research Centre (a massive misnomer) and the two institutes, Public Affairs and Independent Studies 2. The 1998 Budget reforms introduced by then Treasurer Peter Costello included “budget repair” but the subsequent takeover by right-wing ideologues spelt death to an suggestion of the primacy of the petticoat politicians, men and women, who have proved to be unskilled and unsuccessful – in NSW, catastrophically so. So mistakes were made and ignored, hidden and never repaired, well, one was but again by plagiarising me, the SW Metro in Sydney 3. The general rejection of “options” proved to be disastrous in the Corona response, as my analyses led to the cancellation of 2019 MYEFO (budget repair), deferral of the 2020 Budget, deferral of Parliament and cancellation of 2 weeks of sittings, and abandonment of promised SME stimulus on 23 July. The PM’s long-standing antipathy to me, which he has never explained or justified, has damaged the Australian community, and that must end.

4 There are no merit assessments here of individual elements such as income tax cuts over time: it is fair to say that long-term positioning is more about “economic development” than stimulus, just as infrastructure is about long-term productivity, whereas cash subsidies and pensioner supplements are fast and direct boosts.

There is a lot of talk of “bubbles” which are more gloss than reality in real life:

What is relevant is the process by which THE elements were chosen, assessed and O announced, as the way the Government NSW TWO FUSED P EXCLUSION (or approach rorts and bushfires was the same CABAL PROTECTED) ZONES – in T as corona – capricious and sloppy, not in the “the BUBBLE” I O manner of Greiner’s “regulatory impact • ‘Client” interests e.g. statements” in NSW. PRIME MINISTER’S metro financiers & N BUBBLE corporates, S Transurban, own What is done in stimulus and recovery should Party fund-raising T • Planning directions be consistent with a culture of due diligence O and proper procedures, especially where • Financial allocations to directions & more than $200 billion is shown to have low NSW PREMIER’S projects E stimulus value. BUBBLE • Tin Soldiers involved X • Locales to be hit e.g. C Measurable waste Nth Parra, Newcastle L The large amounts going to congestion & lost opportunities from works will cause construction-related Sydney Cronyism inflicted • People to hurt: critics, U OPTIONS D congestion, if not longer-term through on the whole nation E induced demand increases, and create resource cost increases by stretching construction capabilities across the country.

In Sir Rod Eddington’s words in London, There are good returns across the priority areas, but smaller projects which unblock pinch- points, variable infrastructure schemes to support public transport in urban areas and international gateway surface access projects are likely to offer the very highest returns, sometimes higher than £10 for every pound spent. However, large projects with speculative benefits and relying on untested technology, are unlikely to generate attractive returns. The policy process needs to be rigorous and systematic: start with the three strategic economic priorities, define the problems, consider the full range of modal options using appraisal techniques that include full environmental and social costs and benefits, and ensure that spending is focused on the best policies… The reality of the Turnbull/Morrison Government’s work was the opposite of this, they did no “needs analyses” and spent money like a teenager with a parent’s credit card. Such thinking is unlikely to give the community confidence that wise and productive decisions are being taken. As a start, “needs analyses” are anathema to larrikan decisionmakers: “local solutions to local problems” make the difference between realistic Budgets and buckets of broken promises.

Novel Coronavirus of COVID-19 will be with us for quite some time, and we have failed the first phase of economic response, the stimulus. We have gone backwards, with rising employment being masked by short-hours jobs being included and falling off as JobKeeper was wound back – the Government was kidding itself. We have to re-start stimulus but properly, not with the PM’s troops who have no idea what to do, but with a meshed medical and economic equilibrium that will minimise closedowns by strengthening community resilience.

5 Strengths are few including the supposed strong but actually sagging state of the economy before COVID. Weaknesses are many:

• National Cabinet was conjoined with the “National COVID-19 Coordination Commission” and resources manager Nev Power joined his WA mining people who are in the PM’s and Deputy PM’s • budgets, Treasury, Finance Treasury, budgets, • offices: he had no conception of stimulus economics, fostered gas pipeline thinking and tried to steal tourism SME stimulus

• PM&C • and gave up. Morrison disestablished it in July but kept it as a carbon facilitation unit, plays no part in its title’s implied role • Distorted perspectives within the Canberra/Sydney Bubble and their

• Border Force Border • sponsors at the top ends of towns Þ Federal Vs contra-aligned states & territories, “hot spot” dogma (failed), LG excluded

• Cabinet Þ Big Business’ needs at the cost of greed & corruption versus small businesses forced

lack of harmony in regional health protocols health regional in harmony of lack NCC • to rely on borrowings & drawdown of proprietors’ superannuation

• The central political corpus is insular & opaque/ SILO, "decisions" are disorganised are "decisions" advocacy SILO, and opaque/ skills & relevant insular in is corpus inactive sectors political central operator and The • balance accommodation club, State / pub, Fed - industry, & on governance going of back economic layers pay Central • and some levels there's and between sport NSW and relationships Vic ambiguous / pinched Untested rate) • infection low response, disorganised & (faster confused Queensland to - cycles Rivalry • traditional from moved has budgetting state and Federal • time over officials elected of Down-skilling time • over companies insurance officials and banks on executive of watchdog is Down-skilling issues, • economic ignores irrelevant* Committee Committee Economics Economics Parliament Fed • expertise, traits* economic religious & Parliamentary spotted of lobby output along Lack no • but divisions calculations consensus, in-house medical doing be to Parliamentary of reported Lack • macroeconomists few a issues, the ignored Economists • & controls pax international including areas in key constrained - politically Locus• in PM&C PM&C by views, and communities' withheld minutes expert to access Denied • units & agencies and line executive over authority of Lack • Premier/PM) NSW (especially point-scoring political politicisation: cheap of Continuation • Þ More resources into Big lobbies – BCA Menzies “RC”, IPA, CIS ETC

S W • Distorted “planning” – NCCC did not understand stimulus economics and the costs of delays and ineptitude are massive Þ Major coal-dependent directions which are long-term and of an investment nature which should be done through iA versus “in the following few months” which are SME and local government in nature in that “stimulus” mode Þ Community outrage at reversal of decades of struggle to re-focus policies on using stimulus to mitigate climate change as recommended by OECD. The inability of the carbon “Bubble” to understand is

coordinatedcase assessment on patient status templates, with high benefit/cost returns profound and disturbing, and internationally perilous

• Community resilience - seen more in fires than shared virus sacrifices virus shared than fires in more seen - resilience preparedness on Community shortage • but academics of lots - excellence pharmacies and Medical • surgeries, and clinics GP and hospitals small of of Networks lack • but hotspots international from isolation Geographical • reduction risk for potential give centres population major between probity / Distances • OECD meet that analyses of preparedness Independent • level leader at representation and NZ state/territory National • Cabinet & Locus• in PM Ministers Chief & Premiers Strong • Items in black are extracts from the full SWOT covering Corona Malenomics. The red text relates to this National Cabinet context.

6 The strengthening of the Cabinet is the main option through: • Formal constitution with budget, open agenda and minutes, in absence of COAG • Positive program in line with OECD recommendations, “in the following few months” as focus, building over time into a successful recovery • Normal adherence to group decisions within agreed boundaries so that harmonisation occurs in medical practices but members have to opt-out if in rebellion mode The National Cabinet to have a policy oversighting role over the NCC advisory group, which in turn has to move its gas pipeline items to iA. New suite of tools introduced from RG and others’ work including Þ upfront stimulus payments to drive SME employment across the nation, self-return of surplus * Parliamentary * Library services are legendary Unelected, ** no briefing & policy docs, no independence from Gaetjens *** Reintroduction of Greiner's probity after Labor's Metro "Fiascos" funding Þ alert app so businesses can adapt

• Continuation of ambiguous status & political point-scoring, Border Wars Border point-scoring, ambiguous political of & status Continuation • stimulus SME of exclusion Big Business/carbonof priority, Continuation • continue to allowed others probably & plans in NSW emergency date of Out • and confusion ambiguity Force Border of Continuation • reopenings early forced on businesses + OECD/energy & Premiers Vs PM continues, Virtriol • models** education & health governance vapid threaten with mistakes, continues infrastructure Morrison and • budgetary repair not do governments corruption and state and waste Federal • demonstrable have that schemes clumsy/stupid priorities of economy" Continuation "new • exclude and pasts their contamination in stuck political remain / battle Parties • climate previous of campaigning out health retrograde of forcing issues, Politicisation rural & • environmental on priorities parties OECD main out of dropping posts, Displacement • political and executive Fed promises/Greiner key 2010 in of instead lobbyists Carbon • promises"*** "election on Budgets blunders basing engineering Berejiklian • catastrophic & lake debt elsewhere destructive recovery with regional impedes Berejiklian • flights international of resumption to opposition NSW • tactics counter producing Cabal, NSW within politics victimisation of Continuation • instead of closing and Health Depts have in-time information on incidents O T Þ safe-ways through suburbs and towns, highways and transit Þ standard operating procedure manuals for quarantine and all other major elements of bio- security, with budget for improved resilience measures Other countries put more emphasis on local government: Þ LG funded to collect survey data on recovery progress to facilitate “targetting”, on-line feedback Þ LG to implement safe-ways and local information signage to reduce risks to/from travellers

on policy matters policy on recovery employment faster with butupfrontbucks big i.e. re-train & in eligible caravan parks etc tracing alerts, sustainablefinancing & withCBD-type businesses Government) Greiner (NSW exercises & training style lines OECD/Gibbons along Þ ABS funded to restore its tourism accommodation series per LGA, or similar action • Formalise constitution, status & access rights access & status constitution, Formalise • transparent processes, community & in budget Include • views and community options best Hear • re-hire re-open, re-stock, - SMEs to payments stimulus genuine Develop • program drainage and road through shovel-ready and tourism Combine • database Health with linked app awareness local monitoring, RG & Implement • identification disease in capabilities local Broaden • areas OECD-targetted in employment supply & manufacturing directions Develop • OECD in streams stimulus infrastructure ideas systemic best get Reform • - governments state & Federal in "listening" Restore • innovation - government local of Reconstruction Creative • producers regional link to etc packaging chains, supply special Develop • 1980s through society across capabilities response emergency Develop • Australia Infrastructure & interest" national "the of revival a drive Feds •

7 Moreover, the supposed harmonisation of inter-jurisdictional matters was wrecked repeatedly by the NSW cabal of PM and Premier who were pursuing Labor leaders in a cheap dog-whistling exercise that extended into personal threats against the Victorian Premier and a Sydney journalist, and possibly others. This was ignorant lunacy as their objectives would have been achieved more quickly and harmoniously by looking at my Murray River case study which has produced a template for ongoing business stability.

Their way raised more threats of COVID recrudescence and the diminution of their own reputations. The PM went so far as to ambush National Cabinet with a defunct “hotspots” approach, saying “I don’t want to be out-voted again”. That putting ego ahead of the National Interest has been evident through bushfire and rorts scandals, and continues to handicap the nation’s Corona revival. He then was reported to have privately conspired with his Queensland Opposition leader to overturn National Cabinet agreements.

Trust cannot be restored without a better basis for planning and dispute resolution.

Context: March 2020 “Waste” of $300,000,000,000

$24,176,000,000 p.a. for 30 years Ú $806 per citizen each year

Add $40,000,000,000 in waste + congestion from poor engineering & economics in infrastructure

3 Cases where complacency & ignorance damaged this & future generations × Ø × Ø De-skilling of Parties & Agencies + Expungement of Due Diligence ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ BUSHFIRES RORTS COVID-19 Deputy PM then PM abused The fusion between NSW & Fed Politicians irresponsible (NSW!) firies and farmers because they Coalitions + Turnbull’s “gifting” & previous transitions of bat forgot their school lessons • Ministerial officers acted viruses gave scientists the basis about our 3 Ice Ages improperly for avoiding the outbreak (continental warming) • Ministers avoided due • Incompetent agencies diligence & audit • Capricious pollies – not • Journalists missed “causes”, funding cures or re- tolerated waste & stocking supplies capriciousness • Ignoring “cause” led to > $200 billion in grants w/o analyses or PIs

Property & lives x 15 events Reputational damage Delayed serum Ú loss of over just 2 years – add • “Menzies” possible jobs in labs & historical & anticipated (proper • Lib/Nats manufacture and of revenues modelling) • Treasury, PM & Sports from licences & services • Mastheads, ABC Loss c 4,000 – 8,000 First $4,000,000,000 unreported Contingent: additional cases Nation jobs over 8 locations* c $200,000,000 sports & loos through non-testing in regions

Loss of species - ??? Pollution & carbon - ???

* 5 to 10 teams of 100 in each, training in and conducting traditional “landcare” risk reduction 8

This shows the interlinked elements of the same blundering path that the Morrison Government has taken, largely joined by Berejiklian whose rorts ($250 million reported) are exploding in the NSW Parliament.

Economic policy-making and infrastructure projects and pipelines have seen a lot of controversy in the last 5 years in particular. Something changed for the worse and it was not inherent complexity or uncertainty. Politicians have always relied on sound, intelligent and generally well-educated professional public servants; and the community expected the same qualities in journalism. Neither can be sanguine about the results

The PM portrays his performance in rosy terms, his and others’ “myths” being:

• The targetted Budget Surplus is a • The “$100 billion over 10 years” limitation pipeline is useful • Good decisions are made in the • Counter-cyclical spending is wise, Canberra Bubble gifting is ethical • Rorts and Gifting produce economic • Labour multipliers are a good guide productivity • Tourism & Airlines are wise targets for • Climate change can guide recovery stimulus spending • Shovel-ready cases work well • Journalists understand

In particular, the PM, Deputy PM and Treasurer are sweeping scorpions under the mat, for someone else to tread on – which is appalling non-leadership right now and for future generations. As with the health system not being ready for a disaster, serious warning signs of collapses in infrastructure projects are being ignored by officials who care not about community as much as their masters’ regard. “Stimulus” is “well, whenever …”.

On 28 March Deborah Snow published a significant piece in the SMH on the slowness of the Corona response, quoting eminent medico.

The media regularly carry criticisms of the PM’s statements and actions and this will get worse, fast. Consider ~ 1. The NSW Government’s “Baird business model’ failed for predicted reasons and Premier Berejiklian is psychotically pursuing more and more debt, thereby prejudicing education, health and other priorities, as revealed in the 2017 Treasury Intergenerational Report, which Berejiklian and Perrottet either did not know about or hoped no one would notice. The SMH’s comment on the revised one gushed with naïve churnalistic rubbish 2. The two biggest infrastructure projects in the land, WestConnex and the Sydney Metro, have such profound design defects that there is a significant risk that future generations will have to close them, for reconstruction, at massive cost. Morrison has rejected this analyst’s “re-planning template”, reflecting fused psychologies in big things as well as small. The plague of congestion and unaffordability is being fanned by this stupidity 3. The 2019 Budget predicted a surplus of $7.1 billion but that was down-rated to $5 billion by the time of MYEFO – a reduction of 29.6% 4. That Budget anticipated a four-year total surplus of $45 billion but by MYEFO – well before the Coronavirus – that fell by 47.8% to $23.5 billion. That’s about 10% a month!

9 5. The third Stimulus is being implemented on a very different basis to the first but again without compensation for plagiarism. $66 or $100 billion or whatever at the sunset of a day that started with $17.6 billion 6. Sure that’s Coronavirus which is really serious – but the dramatic change in tone from the three episodes related to forensic deconstruction of the “$100 billion over 10 years” mirage, that was stamped “passed” by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, who had been similarly deconstructed in such matters over 6 years 7. The Morrison Government tangled itself in pork-barrelling through three grants-cum-gifting scandals which it has not repaired. The underlying secretive and insular processes continue, with breaches of ethics and fairness, the non-independent Gaetjens report is still secret, and the Budget cost is higher than provided for but we don’t know by how much 8. Morrison, Frydenberg and the Tin Soldiers have denied the essence of the Charter of Budget Honesty and unduly restricted “budget repair” to patching-up revenue streams and retro-justifying otherwise-illicit gifting. At a time when “re-planning” is an urgent necessity, a professional proposal to solve many problems at once has been ignored. The corruption of due diligence and the collapse of engineering in Sydney projects means that a more fundamental repair is needed, but Frydenberg rejected that case in 2018 and 2019. It seems he must be forced to correct his attitudes.. Consider these words from Barry O’Farrell and wonder how much better we’d be doing if Morrison, Frydenberg and Berejiklian observed them: • I am determined that our new infrastructure and transport bodies, along with a modern planning system, will make decisions based on evidence and expertise …. • We need to have an open door to the ideas of the private and non-government sectors, with ministers and public servants eager to explore how to deliver better services …. • I want citizens to be able to trust our public institutions …. • I want a NSW Liberals & Nationals Government to be unafraid to run a ruler over its own performance at any level and welcome the results - good or not so good….

A wise American journalist has concluded, about a context that we know well - including the complete disconnect between infrastructure planning and intergenerational equity - that It is now widely understood that famines arise from local political failures in the trade and distribution of abundant global food supplies, not from local crop failures. And floods devastate communities not because the local rivers are unusually watery but because poor zoning and subsidised flood insurance encourage people to build their homes on floodplains. Those same politicians already have made decisions that may seal a country’s coronavirus fate, and it won’t have anything to do with quarantines or restrictions on travel or large gatherings. Rather, the important choices may have already come in the guise of technocratic health spending and investment decisions that were made largely out of public view over many years.

The Bubble

Morrison did not have a standard “plan”, of any well-known type, , which would have identified “needs” and “risks”, options at all levels and feasibility of each (including likely benefits/costs), scenario-testing, engagement of community including industry and local government, commissioning and then quality assurance.

The reality was, a pattern emerged of Morrison being attacked for defects in announced schemes and Berejiklian chiming in with a distraction. 10

On 12 March the Morrison Government announced a A$17.6 billion stimulus package, including small business assistance through 700,000 grants of up to $25,000 each, a 50% wage subsidy for 120,000 apprentices or trainees for up to 9 months, and $3.2 billion to support short-term small and medium-sized business investment through accelerated depreciation deductions. On the 22nd a rebate on income tax withholdings to $100,000 in SMEs was announced.

The mis-calculated JobKeeper $130 billion came on the 30th, with the childcare subsidy cobbled in . The rhetoric was about timely and “scalable”, the reality was slow and clumsy, while the three- tranche context reflected the lack of a logical plan that should have been in place by 20 February.

There is no sign that the NSW Government did any sums before its early April announcement of a $10,000 subsidy for SMEs which had lost 75% or more of their $75 k turnover (below). As with the Feds, were there data for the numbers and types of businesses that folded permanently, temporarily or partly? Even now, do we know the ratios of capacity Vs latent demand for their businesses in their catchments – such as supermarket evaluations do? Do we know what subsidy level will work in main cases? No, governments have failed us and the media did not ask.

The stimulus packages in themselves were born in crisis talks as this analyst was critiquing the Turnbull/Morrison/Frydenberg approaches step by step, from 2016, indeed each of the latest stimulus packages were evidently based on my rejection of the previous one – there were no “eight days of number crunching”, as three respected journalists wrongly put it.

Australians who simply want us to get on with the job”. Previously he had often used the phasing, “you might think so but I will remain focussed on (the matter he was questioned about)”. PETER Hartcher dubbed Morrison “king of The Bubble”, while ABC journalist Clare Sibthorpe was closest to the mark in December ’18 with

There is a special kind of rage Canberrans reserve for politicians or journalists who equate our city with the Federal Government. And the most recent example of the "Canberra Bubble" has brought the pot to boiling point. It leaves the rest of the city wondering why our entire community keeps being dragged into the reference. Prime Minister Scott Morrison insists he's outside of the "Canberra Bubble" — but many would think that's inflating the truth. Mr Morrison's bubble analogy refers to the insular climate of the Federal Government and the media in the Press Gallery (we think), so it is likely the recently-minted PM finds himself floating quite close to its centre.

Jacqueline Maley has often pondered the “bubble” concept and analysed contexts as in September ‘18:

… this week the veil has been lifted on how much of this lobbying happens behind closed doors, in a non-transparent process that happens in parallel to, but separately from, the official complaints channel. In a time when trust in politicians, and democracy, are in crisis globally, this lack of probity is not just worrying, it’s self-sabotagingly stupid.

Nearly half a billion dollars in surprise funding is given to the Barrier Reef Foundation, without any tender process, in a private meeting between the foundation’s chair Anna Marsden, Prime Minister Turnbull, Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg and his departmental secretary. No wonder politicians get so frothy about us. … the real decisions are made behind closed doors. You’re not invited inside.

11

The same symptomology has gone on up to the present but not one journalist has taken the sports rorts and congestion lurks into the context of long-term breakdown of “Treasury Regs” or due diligence. The pimple is seen but not the elephant. Accusations are now constant that media have taken an antagonistic view to environmental, medical and economic reform in line with changed proprietorial policies – including, even especially, the national broadcaster.

As Mark Rosenberg of Balanced Curve puts the dominant “Club’s groupthink’” – When cohesive groups are making decisions there is a psychological drive for consensus that suppresses disagreement and prevents the investigation of alternatives. It tends to corrupt a team’s decision making ... (while) success can generate a hubris that is intolerant to all outside opinion, and the team’s thinking becomes divorced from reality. The first-line protection against groupthink is (implementing)... constructive conflict. There has been an overall misrepresentation of the state of the Australian economy by way of an over-emphasis on statistics by journalists and misunderstanding of what drives economic and community prosperity in the real economy. Both the OECD and IMF have pointed to the need, in a post-Corona world, to “clean out the stables” of waste and stupidity, so that “real needs” can be funded and implemented properly.

Stimulus Stages

The new/old state of play at the start was reported in the SMH on 7 March:

Morrison is backing off a V-shaped recovery model to a U (longer). “Pressed on whether the economy would need some substantial assistance to deal with the financial fallout from the virus outbreak, Morrison was clear. "I can say, though, in terms of broader larger fiscal stimulus-type responses, that is not the advice we're receiving from Treasury. In fact, quite the opposite," he said on February 27. This week, Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy told a Senate committee the virus would strip at least 0.5 percentage points from growth in the March quarter. Combined with an expected 0.2-percentage-point hit from the summer's fires, there is no one in the government who believes the country will escape a quarter of negative growth at the start of 2020.

On 9 and 10 March, two mastheads published windows on the state of decisionmaking in The Morrison Bubble:

The Australian on 9 March: The SMH on 10 March: The government’s razor gang is to present a So far, he has not shown the early commitment plan to cabinet on Tuesday. However, sources and determination of his tenure in immigration. have said the numbers were yet to be finalised So far, he is showing signs of the same and a decision on short-term assistance was reluctance and excuse-making that shocked the unlikely to be settled before Wednesday. The world in his leadership failure on the fires. So Prime Minister is understood to be taking daily far, his main message is that he is not Kevin briefings from Treasury and relevant cabinet Rudd. This may be deeply interesting to the ministers, but is yet to be satisfied with the people who populate the dismal circus of package. The urgency of the measures was Canberra politics. For everyone else, Morrison is underlined on Sunday as the Italian government merely signalling that political appearances are took the drastic step of quarantining the more important to him than the reality of northern region of Lombardy, home to 10 economic outcomes. Does he really think anyone million people…. Amid growing fears over the outside the "bubble" gives a damn about his

12 economic impact of the crisis, business groups political vanity as their jobs and businesses urged a rapid and substantial support package, teeter? It's time for him to stop campaigning including the fast-tracking of $2bn in bushfire and start governing. response spending. Fears the coronavirus will Morrison can begin to restore confidence by drive a global economic downturn were further setting out a plan. One of the reasons that fire- amplified over the weekend after Moody’s struck Australia was so angry and frustrated Investors Service warned the health emergency with Morrison was that he allowed a leadership could trigger a string of recessions across the vacuum to develop. There seemed to be no one developed world, with the US, Japan, Germany, in charge. There was no plan. Fear and anger Italy, France, Britain and South Korea all facing filled the void. two quarters of negative growth.

Note, the Government has not spent the $200 million it allocated to bushfire relief. This is seen to be an act of spite by the man who was accused of cruelty and abuse during the fires.

Emphasis was put on three major stimulus areas over the sweep of the Turnbull/Morrison Budgets (apart from corporate tax reductions and the like): 1. tourism especially in regional centres and in the metropolitan "magnets" 2. freight and port districts including through the Inland Rail, the Aerotropolis and a regional air freight hub 3. infrastructure pipelines, growing from a $75 billion 10-year program to $100 billion in 2018.

In December 2018 a renewed formal proposal was put to the new PM and Treasurer that the principle of “budget repair” via MYEFO be applied to the release of the new transport master planning template EDDINGTON BEDROCK for public consultation given the following:

• Housing affordability has been found to be damaged by the Metro in both Bankstown and North Shore sections, with an overall 5% of new dwellings committing over 90% of available budgets. Bankstown housing targets have been demolished, even that is being repeated on the Lower North Shore where the Greater Sydney Commission appears to have surreptitiously increased the housing target by 300 between 2017 and 2018. The situation is worsened by Berejiklian’s malicious exclusion of the Goanna Transit Bridge – the only possible relief – and twice-rejection of Google: • Related congestion has been found to be worsening with axial densification without rail and road augmentation, fringe growth centres taking up interurban freeway space, and WestConnex adding 20,000 (20%) to daily traffic in the Rozelle area. Trucking through St George and Sutherland is growing inexorably due to over-focus on Port Botany and Berejiklian’s broken promises on the Portals and F6, indicating a need to divert wasted money on the Botany duplication to re-planning of Eastern Seabord port and freight planning (part of my offering since 2012) • The Sydney media are now reporting what I have been saying, the climate for investment in Sydney has been damaged by Baird/Berejiklian decisions and disappointing results for Chinese corporates and families. The Eastern Suburbs tram will be traffic chaos, traffic across the Bankstown and NW Sector commuting belts will be crippling in the run-up the March/May elections. (All aspects have been documented previously.) • WestConnex and other roads have been funnelled into a narrow channel which is a “pre- planning” mistake. (The same applies to Metros where the CBD channel will curtail

13 systemic capacity.) RMS has refused to change the Tempe interchange fiasco even though better options had been developed.

The response of the Treasurer and Secretary of the Treasury was to block this analyst’s email address.

The situation with tourism was catastrophic, see https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=17508. The SMH on 3 Feb '20 presented an IPSOS focus group review on Morrison's "pathetic" performance on the fires, using lots of words before revealing there were 9 people in Sydney and 8 in Melbourne. Their conclusions included: • Mr Morrison and his advisers had shown poor judgement while the Prime Minister himself had shown a “lack of empathy” during the crisis • vocal support for Mr Morrison was a “minority” view in the focus groups • "little confidence" Labor leader Anthony Albanese would have provided better leadership • deployment of the Australian Defence Force gained strong support from voters and there was praise for volunteers in state fire authorities and emergency services • those surveyed did not back the idea of a permanent role for the ADF in fighting fires.

Tension built in February ’20, with many calls for the PM to start “stimulus”, an impediment being his Cabinet’s fear of having a Rudd label put on their foreheads. Morrison said on 27 February that “the risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us”, and next day a senior Health official said “There really was no national leadership at that point”.

On 13 March Health officials sandbagged COAG, annoying Morrison who was intending to go to the football even though he was imposing crowd limits on that very day. That’s why National Cabinet was created on the fly. It took until the 18th for the “human biosecurity emergency” to be declared, which was the effective start of social distancing. (Queensland moved from 29 January.) The Premiers sandbagged him on the 22nd over business closedowns and pushed a national approach.

The impression was that the PM did not know what to do, as in his bushfires and rorts mishaps. Far too much time had been lost and that policy drudgery (and incredibly high error rate) still suffocate intelligent converse. Delays at the beginning are said to have caused the immediate loss of more than 1.4 million jobs and ongoing loss of life and economic vitality:

The need for normal economic stimulus associated with falling growth was evident through 2019. When the bushfires and then Novel Corona sapped economic energy, Morrison and his Treasurer Frydenberg (architect of the 2019 confusions) presaged large infrastructure being included in their renewed programs. That was reinforced by silly statements by Frydenberg and the Deputy PM McCormack along the lines that the $100 billion was still relevant. That was cynical posturing.

Right at the beginning Morrison said his subsidies would be swift, targetted and scalable, but his generosity evaporated when he found his mega-fund ($130 billion on 30 March) was $60 billion over-stated or about 45%. Since then and regardless, the same crew who developed the crises were allowed to stay in the Bubble, making each worse.

A slew of one-off announcements were made but each fell over when the details were examined. Morrison said they had had a “plan” from the off - for stimulus, nursing homes, tourism and the

14 like; but the reality was they avoided transparency by deferring the Budget, cancelling MYEFO, doing something with outstanding sports grants, and postponing then part-cancelling Parliament. They tried to get away with denying responsibility when the nursing home crisis came home to roost, and cancelled the Tourism stimulus altogether just because Morrison was not prepared to face me. What a joke of a tragedy.

This piece was written on 8 April and reflected the hiatus of A particular debate was raging over the time. There was a story in the Washington Post that whether NZ’s strict approach worked; and reports in Nine/Fairfax • “herd immunity” would and News mastheads that NSW and the PM Morrison have cause too many deaths in its got their battered songbook out and are thinking of relaxing lead-up, social distancing and travel restrictions. The local journalists • whether a vaccine could failed to delve into the facts in four respects. ever be developed, and First, the apparent easing of new confirmed cases simply • whether the disease was represents closed borders but not what happened after the transmitted by touch NSW Government let a ship-load of dying and very ill (especially on metal Corononavists disembark. Add an uncontrolled influx of air surfaces) and coughing and travellers and re-departure movements. The “after” part is sneezing, surviving 8 or 18 that the air and some of the sea-borne carriers spread out all hrs. over the countryside. The sticking points were, Second, we have reports from America that the task is symptomology from Europe was getting greater as the virus spreads into regions. One showing deformation in children’s person’s trip across Victoria, using back roads, yesterday feet, and a supposed low infection showed no Police surveillance of compliance with travel rate among 20-30 year olds. bans. Early retail raids to the regions from Melbourne On 13 April the Government (which are still happening at a lower level) undoubtedly spotted regional anomalies and spread the early contagion. called for more regional testings but this was after this analyst Third, the NSW Health Department’s website on the virus pounded the gaps and errors. shows numbers of cases in all non-Metropolitan local Pubs and clubs in NSW closed on 23 government areas. All 100+ are shown to have 1-4 cases, no March, the last major trading being variation. That is suspect, especially as local sources on on Friday 20 March and Saturday Facebook were reporting 5 cases in just one such LGA. The the 21st. appearance is that the schedule is flummery when we need People from Melbourne were freely reality. If the travel restrictions are not being enforced, how arriving in my regional town near do our phantasisers know what is actually happening? the Murray River (a vigorous Finally, this whole disaster happened because governments domestic tourism and recreational failed to update the serums from previous bat virus sporting corridor), for toilet paper crossovers, nor to replenish the stocks of protective and raids, travel to holiday homes and other equipment after the last crisis. They did not shock- caravan parks, and making proof their nursing homes and schools, nor build hospitals. whoopee. This numskulled incompetence reflects a long-term On the Friday and Saturday, the destruction of the skills and ethics of our society – not just public bars in pubs and clubs from public servants and politicians where the symptoms are Albury to Mildura along the Murray palpable but also among the Fourth Estate. That is seen in were packed check-to-jowl by the treatment of firefighters and farmers during the strangers. bushfires, the sports and other rorters over up to $4.02 They then returned to shared billion (most not yet reported). Journalists have swum with facilities and spaces in van parks that tide and so the community is going in circles, just when and the like, free of care and proud we started to get on-street compliance levels up. of it. An Easter weekend blitz of

15 NSW and Victoria had not closed the borders. They were Police checks of van movements disbarring the opposite travellers without herding their own and parks and holiday places is citizens, not minimising regional and interstate risks excellent but cannot be simultaneously. maintained. There is no room for optimism where COVID-19 is Breaches of social distancing concerned, just the need for hard work and determination, became common, as was predicted. clearly communicated, and lots of testing. Young Australians remain bullet- proof.

There is no on-demand testing in the majority – if not any– of the towns, no face masks, no proper disinfecting wipes, not even instructions on how to make DIY cloth masks (the excellent guide from the WashPost was circulated by a citizen). GP surgeries and hospital beds are thin on the ground. Could pubs open without public bars, with some enforcement of social distancing in dining rooms! - or will our scallywag character overwhelm health guidelines? The latter, until the music stops ….

There was a lack of clear communications - schools and aged units are safe or not? Payments are certain or shaky? Expert managers run governments or do the blunderers continue to repress “repair”? Do our politicians protect democracy, or does China set our political Parties’ priorities?

The initial confusion about the disease was half-understandable but it had been the product of laziness since the previous Corona mutant virus outbreak. It was not understandable in interconnected program terms: the stocking of PPE products, the training of staff in emergency procedures, the central managerial and logistical skills required to organise resources and manage large numbers of people, simply mind-mapping and SWOTting the early stages so as to get payment portals organised and funding prioritised and scalable - all should have been done by about 20 February.

It is astonishing and disgraceful that Morrison and Berejiklian, as a fused hegemony, still have no plan and no protocols covering arts, tourism, aged care and economic pathways.

Theory held and the high level of uncritical crypto-political support Morrison was receiving suppressed innovation and repair: 1. By the end of July, NCCC had produced no stimulus ideas, a set of school-standard “guides”, and controversy about bias to carbon fuels and especially gas which was said to be in surplus supply anyway. It is wholly under the thumb: its line report is to Philip Gaetjens who is directed by PM Morrison (and vice versa). Not only is there no independence, there is no expertise. This is the perfect combination in a system that supresses all external influences so that El Supremo’s every wish is met, whichever is that. The mechanisms can be seen in every context: 2. Budgeting and distortions in gifting to cronies and depriving real needs, distortions of due diligence and iNSW and iA, the irrelevance of auditing and corruption bodies, Josh’s MYEFO and Budget catastrophes, the gifting to and failures of political appointees, and journalists who have been captured, coached and neutered. This is first because the mid-December MYEFO is critical to the credibility of the Morrison/Frydenberg compact (now corrupted by Josh’s manoeuvrings) 3. Distortions in politics: psychological misbehaviours, Parties – all of, political appointees, foreign and local lobbies, disempowered communities including farmers and regions, and media including the main corporates

16 4. Ignored solutions: no matching of budgets and politics with real needs, no fixing the future rather than inflicting fat and greasy debts on our grandchildren. 5. After so many bad experiences, the Turnbull 2018 Budget continued the fiasco with three Sydney howlers totalling over $3.5 billion. As Troy Bramston wrote of Menzies, “he had a guiding purpose, espoused a clear philosophy … and was a clever political strategist…. (which) Subsequent Liberal leaders can never measure up to”. That generation had great public servants as did subsequent governments but only up to about 1995. The Morrison Government has neither. Labor is in the same plight. The greatest planning blunder in Australian history, the Western Sydney City Deal, came that way via the Turnbull/ Morrison/ Taylor/ Kennedy/ Gaetjens/ Staples silo. It pervades the Coalition’s budgetary processes and should not under any logical construct of reality. The Morrison/Frydenberg & Berejiklian / Perrottet • $1,000 per passenger to get Deceit about BUDGETING, CORONA & FIRE INCOMPETENCE out of Wuhan, cancelled • Casuals • Close border 1 Feb but wait 18 • App & vaccine March to declare emergency • Hibernation The Poisoned Vine ~ • Sports rorts in PMO & Lib HQ • Correction of mid-March • errors • BLUNDERING, WASTE & Women's rorts • Fail to provide timely & • • Correction of $60 billion error PLAGIARISM - Baird/Gaetjens June Deferral to next Budget scalable funding flows 2012, thence Berejiklian & Turnbull/ • 2-month delay caused loss of Morrison c 1,400,000 jobs Lies about RoboDebt and cruelty • CAPTURE OF MEDIA & APPLAUSE Morrison rejection of Fire Chiefs, to the disadvantaged, denial of FOR SHINY TOYS - metros, failed to re-supply air and on- No plan - panic over criticisms of accountability for massive ground teams Corona dithering, childcare mistakes and deceit Connexes, ports, fast rail, greyhounds, blunder, 3 tranches all inept, amalgamations, Corona missteps further tranches inept & • NSW’s Abuse of National The Bubble becomes the Citadel wasteful, ongoing plagiarism Cabinet (Berejiklian = under the stresses of humiliation, Morrison & McCormack abuse of • Disastrous “dinner” -$130 Morrison – premature re- where repair is rejected, “firies & farmers” out of bog billion, biggest miscalculation openings) deflection is the mode ignorance of Australia’s history in history, Aus & AFR misled • Inexpert NCCC Chairman, no • Immediate realisation too plan for SME stimulus &tc much, threw in childcare

The deterioration in leadership & governance quality undermined national & community safety & prosperity

OECD Guidelines and Imputed Critical Framework

The following OECD quotes (in the left column) from its latest Survey have comments in italics:

Reviewing all government expenditure will be necessary to ensure adequate spending on high-priority areas and people, and enhance growth without threatening debt sustainability. Starting a review of public expenditures early is important because reallocation of spending towards priority areas is usually gradual. [On 15 June PM Morrison repeated the canards of successive failed cycles of stimulus, which, lacking rationale and wasting rivers of taxpayers’ money, seem to be based on twisted priorities in the back corridors of The Bubble – Morrison’s intrinsic “groupthink” lock-up.]

“Reviewing” is anathema to Frydenberg (opposed to “Budget repair”) and Berejiklian (psychotic addiction to HK loss-making shiny toys and the Debt Lake). MYEFOs* are corrupted by crony influences. The “costs” of waste and ignored advice are discussed on pages 15 ff.

Minimising administrative delays in * Morrison knew a shutdown was inevitable by 1 activating these programmes is of utmost February, and if he had acted in the Newcastle importance if they are to be as effective as manner, the plan would have been in place, possible. As the containment restrictions with payment portals activated, by 20 Feb. are lifted, fiscal multipliers will likely Payments would have flowed from 1 March – “how” is demonstrated under Better Options 17 strengthen, helping to stimulate demand * Morrison dithered for 2 months in which time and reduce hysteresis effects. Australia lost c 1.4 million jobs and built barriers against progressive employment, There may also be strong political pressures industry, social and environmental reforms to maintain generous support programmes * The portals Morrison used were cumbersome, after the pandemic is over. Moreover, extra slow and non-targetted (with massive fiscal costs could arise from realising losses wastage), with powerful socio-political inertia on contingent liabilities – such as current built-in state loan guarantees. * Morrison gave no attention to obvious, superior, options, such as childcare vouchers issued on the certification of employers, time limited, coordinated through local childcare centres. The adoption of well-designed fiscal rules, * The creation of Infrastructure NSW was seen and a reformed budget process that to be the needed repair to Labor’s Metro strengthens incentives for prudent long- lunacy. Instead, Berejiklian ejected Nick term planning and provides better Greiner, and her Laborite malonomics has information, would help shape budget spread across Australia: no due diligence, low decisions. … independent fiscal councils to negative benefit/cost ratios, subsidising and specific budget tools like the long-term foreign corporates not reaping PPP fiscal target established with the Enzi- contributions, stealing IP, appointing jackals Whitehouse budget reform legislation in the to guard posts – all repeated at the US could be helpful in this respect [Enzi is Turnbull/Morrison level. Macro results depend macro-political about national parameters, on micro synergy good stuff needed here but not discussed ici] * NCCC has no plan, no fiscal rules, the re- carbonisation agenda dominated from when Neville Power was appointed, he only contacted caravan parks after I wrote to Govt/him in copyright form Fiscal multipliers are likely to be near zero * Turnbull/Morrison/Frydenberg had no skills or during a full shutdown, as government experience in stimulus, unlike this analyst who programmes may not boost private reformed Newcastle through the Newcastle consumption and investment much given Strategic Infrastructure Infrastructure Plan administrative restrictions on economic template (developed in 2 days with activity. Instead, the main goal of the policy engagement over the next 10), which the NSW response is to preserve jobs and household Planning Minister endorsed for application incomes, and protect firms from across all councils in NSW bankruptcies. * It was a foundation of immediate reforms in facilities and workforce support, building into 8 industry clusters If a second outbreak of the pandemic * There is no foundation in Australia for materialises (as in the double-hit scenario) targeting incentives more cleverly as there is or economic growth and employment turn no current system as a base (i.e. no “evidence- out even weaker …, the scope and duration based”) and the short term of support policies may need to be * Morrison’s fiscal negativity and refusal to extended, while becoming more targeted. listen will hinder SME recovery New support measures for firms might * Berejiklian’s fiscal aggression and control over include equity-like risk sharing instruments, Morrison has damaged national economic to provide firms with the required liquidity integrity as there is no balance between but without increasing their leverage. These counterfactual medical modelling and

18 kind of interventions are especially (non)economic modelling, as is the case in important for SMEs, which face more Chicago and Baltimore – the medical risks are challenges in raising funding in a slowdown, unknowable here and the economic benefits and have positive repercussions on the in the US from early opening are minimal = stability of the banking system. Flexibility malenomic stupidity and agility will be crucial. * Industry associations are politically aligned with Morrison and unaware of, even resistant to, the Newcastle model and this analyst

Notwithstanding the sharp projected * Morrison and Power are chasing manufacture deterioration in public finances, they could as though India and China exist no more. turn out even worse than expected due to Their ideas will go the way of Button’s, kaput large uncertainties about the economic * The error rate is a wildcard – the American impact of the crisis, the use of support and British Governments made dreadful measures, and the realisation of contingent mistakes on the disease side but not as much liabilities. …. Extraordinary policies will be as Australia on the employment side, required to walk the tightrope towards especially in the 45% of businesses that are recovery. Even if growth does surge in SMEs some sectors, overall activity will remain * The lack of “budget repair” is exceptionally muted for a while. critical because the NSW Government’s infrastructure program is collapsing and Governments can provide the safety nets congestion and affordability parameters are that allow people and firms to adjust, but worsening – this is a reverse stimulus effect cannot uphold private sector activity, that the PM and NCCC refuse to even include in employment and wages for a prolonged their maths period. Capital and workers from impaired * The cruelty of treatment of casuals extends sectors and businesses will have to move into intergenerational dimensions due to the towards expanding ones. sapping of superannuation reserves and the loss of confidence in a critical section of the Such transitions are difficult, and rarely economy happen fast enough to prevent the number * The hypocrisy of “no sacrifice” by both the of failing firms from rising and a sustained National and NSW Coalitions is pernicious, it period of unemployment. sets a bad example instead of a positive message of care for community * Delays harmed the Corona response and are continuing to harm the Corona recovery, the vapid character of the folk in The Bubble need to be replaced by genuine planners who have successful track records as in Newcastle – bought in if unwilling or unable to be part of …. First, healthcare spending will need to be * Preparation of anti-viral was neglected boosted in many countries, both to increase despite clear warnings. A pre-privatisation the capacity to respond to future Commonwealth Serum Laboratories would pandemics and to address structural have moved sooner and profited, re-stocking increases in healthcare costs. of PPEs and preparation of hospital facilities were similarly neglected * NSW Debt Lake mistakes have already started to suffocate Health budgets and are increasing due to psychotic malevolence

19 Second, after a decade of low public capital * Federal politics has become allergic to climate spending, it is necessary to increase high- strategies due to rabid internecine warfare quality public investment in sectors related * The PM has inculcated a culture of re- to digitalisation, education and climate carbonisation, given the chiefs of staff to him change mitigation. Market failures in these and the Deputy PM, and the chair of NCCC, are sectors cause private under-investment, all coal lobbyists/operatives preventing large positive externalities and * NCCC itself is a roadblock to recovery as it has the attainment of important social no skills, experience or acceptance of proper objectives. A reduction in public investment short-term stimulus Vs long-term should be avoided, in contrast to the past infrastructure (which is not its domain, iA large consolidation episodes. needs urgent reform). Neville Power has rejected professional proposals that would fill NCCC’s gaps To minimise the risks, the programmes * Public investment is divorced from should be evaluated over time and adjusted Eddington/Greiner probity and prudence, and if needed, sufficient loss provisions that are is centred on malenomic cronyism reflected directly in budget balances should * NCCC and the Government have no plan, no be made, and repayment incentives should objectives, no options testing, no program be introduced (e.g. partial guarantees). budgeting, no PIs, no engagement, and no Quality Assurance re-engineering – so no evaluations * Contingent off-Budget liabilities (Inland Rail and Second Sydney Airport) are ignored and not revised to be successful Governments will need to adapt support * The broad principles are respected in the and accompany the transition, allowing fast community but the Governments have no restructuring processes for firms, with no nous in regional revival and/or SME economics stigma for entrepreneurs, providing income * NSW has no such program except for major for workers in between jobs, training for corporates those laid off and transitioning to new jobs, * Morrison is rejecting social protection at every and social protection for the most stage despite his crocodile tears. vulnerable.

* MYEFO is a largely redundant hangover from former legendary Lib Treasurer Peter Costello’s Charter of Budget Honesty. It stands for Mid-Year Economic and Financial Outlook but has become a rubber stamp for unauthorised expenditure, and lately, it shows up wildly inaccurate Treasury figures from just six months previously. Frydenberg has had 3 stints in Treasury and is a master at manipulating the media over his transgressions.

The OECD’s “directions” will be corrupted further In Australia, harming current and future generations, as these are emerging permanent defects (presented to be negatived): • Businesses and workers likely to face extended weak demand would benefit from support to upgrade, invest and innovate, and to shift to sectors with better prospects, through strengthening active labour market policies, particularly retraining schemes, and by facilitating investment. • Streamlining and improving access to income support programmes, such as the Citizen’s Income, would prevent large increases in poverty and support demand in the recovery.

20 • If non-performing loans start rising, the government should stand ready to reinforce the bank asset support programme (GACS). Implementing the new bankruptcy law would help by ensuring that viable companies are restructured rather than liquidated. • Pursuing the government’s plans to develop a multi-year programme to reduce administrative complexity, improve the legal system’s effectiveness and reduce investment and employment costs would support new businesses, productivity and jobs. • Supporting the renewal of the ageing infrastructure and the transition to lower carbon activities would sustain the recovery and improve well-being. • Accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, as demonstrated by the rapid move during the crisis to ‘smart working’ and online services, would raise competitiveness.

The meaning is, in rejecting “budget repair” over several years and especially under Morrison, Frydenberg, Gaetjens and Kennedy, the essence of stimulus and of OECD’s guidelines was smashed and Sydney’s and NSW’s future prosperity imperilled. In their governance reports, OECD focussed on major aspects, three of which follow with comments in italics:

Coordination • “Waste” is no longer measured: pre-setting of Petticoat priorities across of (capriciousness) means that “options” (as benchmarks) are ignored and government waste becomes contract disputes and overruns, not “more expensive” Vs levels is “most cost effective” in an integrated social balance sheet difficult, • The formal mechanisms of COAG have been displaced instead of increasing reformed, replaced by a consensus/opt-out informal structure which the risk of excludes “planning” and dissolves under bullying stress wasted • Historically, the peak co-ordinating bodies comprised public servants, resources with emphasis on cost effectiveness from planning assessments through to contracts, with “open” consultation with vested interests and regular discussions at Ministerial Council level (ATAC) • Now, iA, iNSW, NCCC and the Greater Sydney Commission have vested interests throughout their structures – they focus on spoils (projects), not Lines are integrated outcomes, starting with contracts without “plans” (“all a bit linked, arse-about” said Nick Greiner), now eliminating “due diligence” (notably duplication the Sydney Metros and less so Melbourne’s freeways and rail has been strengthening). That Berejiklian took all “Kremlin NSW” agencies into avoided, so her Department, including the faux-independent GSC, showed her the schedule contempt for professionalism, something she had shown from 2000 or should be earlier read as a • NSW under Berejiklian said it wanted to be freed from central whole surveillance, but its governance is so deformed that there is no inbuilt sustainability, and the begging bowl comes out whenever this analyst hits the “debt lake”. The side-lining of COAG accords with Berejiklian’s maverick approach - dominatrix Uncertainty • The high marginal costs of tunnels through built-up suburbs and rail and of revenue tollway routes to and through fringe growth areas mean that high flows and subsidies are needed if congestion is to be reduced contra laissez-faire sources can non-planning (which dominates in Sydney) erode • The loss of due diligence reduces the security of superannuation- and confidence in government-funding schemes, on top of poor pre-planning and a project’s engineering which saw a sequence of failed PPP rail and road schemes, affordability The only independent expert assessment was Jim Steer’s in 2008 of the 21 NW Metro – benefit/cost ratio of 0.65 or lower – Berejiklian refused to acknowledge its existence and the result is a 5% revenue cover. • Indeed, all current NSW projects appear to have benefit/cost ratios under 1.0 as documented in the “Save Sydney” suite • The superannuation agencies and business chambers engage soft consultancies which tend to boost projects rather than promote reform protocols, examples include Financial Services Council’s reports on port and logistics, 2011 and 2014, Port of Newcastle’s AlphaBeta market potential study, and CSIRO’s Inland Rail for ARTC. Unstable • Infrastructure pipelines were planned through State-level strategic regulatory planning, regional-level plans, and agency-driven Ministerial frameworks submissions to the Budget Committee of then full Cabinet can prevent • Now agencies have been amalgamated and put under political long-term appointees so that the former inbuilt competitive surveillance decisions mechanisms (a la Gary Sturgess’ “To Join Interest with Duty”) have been replaced by “the strongest wins”, with Berejiklian being duchessed by 3 successive Premiers then herself • iNSW and GSC were hailed as the saviours of infrastructure planning but both simply took Berejiklian’s projects without any plan*, meaning they made the situation worse ( * COAG tried to rein-in NSW in 2009 by insisting on a “plan” but Berejiklian forced its abandonment in 2012.) • Local government used to surveille state agencies, but now compete for an goodies which range from grants in return for co-operation (bribes) and the location and naming of metro stations (ignoring better outcomes for their communities).

Frydenberg lies about the underpinning dynamics of independent reports as well as Budgets and MYEFOs. Morrison had been rejecting my repair solutions (with their high benefit/cost ratios) for years, and he was bushwhacked by the Corona closedowns. Frydenberg made the mistake of mentioning the OECD’s Survey, which accorded with my previous and ongoing work. Morrison must have wept when he read the above quote about “reviewing”.

Frydenberg made the mistake of verballing the OECD. Their report provided an excellent template for measuring Josh for his sackcloths. The following graphic summarises the six months of endless tranches, fatal post-implementation revelations, and failure to achieve priorities. It seemed that the $130 billion had no logic but to take the total to the US level of percentage of annual outlays (40%). At the end, childcare subsidies were removed, the need for them remains critical, yet the Government is too paranoid to assess my scalable and targetted option.

OECD includes climate change mitigation in its target items. The PM and Deputy PM abused “greenie” farmers and firies who made the mistake of knowing what they were talking about. Such values have been forced through the previously-professional Public Service which now has ideological warriors with no thinking, aka Tin Soldiers, who sit uselessly in advisory and probity roles – excluding wisdom, nous and innovation.

As Sydney journalist Nicole Hasham put it, “... more than a decade of so-called ‘climate wars’ has left a policy paralysis. Driven by short-term interests, power struggles, politicking and blind ideology, the nation’s leaders have fought over and dumped a raft of promising emissions-curbing measures”.

22 These are truisms in the general media but they don’t connect it with the GSC and iA among others. They don’t understand festering sores and the smashing of intergenerational equity.

Situation after 6 months: January: Wuhan evac-, 12 March 1st tranche: $17.6 b The Bullshit Zone Morrison & Frydenberg again • No food & accommodation, PM wants $1,000 pp First cash outflows – 1 May!!! showed their fear of Gibbons’ and arts & recreation stimulus 24 March, Gibbons’ • January: first case, exposures by delaying the Housing scheme favours high- SMEs facing delayed payments “Budget Deception 2016- value jobs = longer term and flight from Wuhan Budget to October, were told to draw down ’20”: our 13% of Govt wealthier clients de facto Budget compared with restricting Parliamentary superannuation – hang the l/t sessions and cancelling two • Childcare came to an end but PM does NOT connect 40% of US equivalent, equity implications Morrison evidently weeks of them, and deferring Govt refused to look at the dots: does not act panicked the tourism package – the targetted voucher option or prepare, does not highest priorityCasuals – to 23 July which remains needed “plan”, does not pay Morrison forgot casuals, told • No scheme of incentives for them to queue at Centrelink. “Dinner” on the 26th March for better advice 23 July, Morrison SME revival, instead Berejiklian Early priority was corporates produced $130 b mayhem is free to wreck border zone on 30th, quickly filled-in announced his response* to economies with childcare stimulus funding: • 20 Feb was likely date Gibbons pounded lack of - “a • Tourism was invisible, RG had National Cabinet has been kept for release of “plan” plan”, objectives, targets for 1 APRIL SHANAHAN AND P blocked it but Morrison cared away from “plan” and my under the Newcastle outcomes, measurable KELLY FROM THE AUS AND more for his ego than for matters and its health recovery model Performance Indicators, COOREY FROM AFR BOUGHT corporates & workers conclusions are ignored when FRYDENBERG’S SPIEL – there transparency: emails, tweets, • Social payments to be the crap hits the propeller had been a rational process “tapered” – still not scalable Morrison released Facebook, sms. Included “not • No rationale for defining red • Slowest & most clumsy • Self-certification by employers trusting NCCC” options email zones and border curtilages – • Most wasteful which was in RG’s scheme – Berejiklian is reckless to Cabinet 24 April Morrison plagiarism was raised but not • Least scalable • Moral wounds unhealed so PM • Least targetted admitted to substantial answered errors in previous guaranteed hostile criticism of possible payment * AgainWind PM -said0ut itmaybe was “not ready 22 March 2nd tranche: $66 b, package, introduced a yet”, 2 days from launch his every move vectors & processes included 2nd pension revised one • SMEs are afeard of uncertainty PM is still “blundering supplement (RG priority, Aus and Morrison is still fixated on Berejiklian followed within the Bubble” – no still c 30% short of UK level), 24 May Morrison admitted loans with $10 k (meagre) plan, no analyses and including “regions” which $60 b over needs in the • Morrison yelled no at Pandemic with 75% loss of numbers, no McCormack frittered away as $130 b, lies abt incorrect leave, dithered under pressure, turnover - ridiculous survey forms understanding of reality & in previous rort schemes. than smiled at saying yes empiricism. NCCC rejected • Tourism deferred to 23 July Avoiding Ruby Princess inquiry Morrison created renewables and has been and revealed a liar over expectations of largesse thoroughly discredited. handling of aged care facilities

OECD could not have anticipated the kerfuffles associated with the closure of internal borders, especially after the hapless Borders Minister said that Border Force cannot intervene in Border matters! That was Clanger of the decade, that is, until the PM said he’s not responsible for his nursing homes as with Border Control.

Morrison’s first Corona stimulus package was announced on 12 March, the second on the 22nd, the third on 30 March. Pubs and clubs in NSW closed on 23 March, the last major trading being on Friday 20 March and Saturday the 21st. In early April Guardian Australia reported that two-thirds of Australian businesses reported hits to revenue, one in 10 paused trading altogether, and 70% in hospitality sector were forced to reduce staff hours.

In May the ABS reported an SME survey’s results – 72% have less revenue, 73% accessed support mechanisms, and 74% changed how they operated. 7% have increased revenue:

By industry, businesses in Accommodation and food services (75%) and Arts and recreation services (67%) were the most likely to report that trading restrictions are expected to impact the business to a great extent over the next two months. Businesses in these two industries were also the most likely to report that they expect social distancing restrictions to impact the businesses to a great extent over the next two months (50% and 68% respectively).

The SMH’s Jennifer Duke reported on 7 June that “The Australian Hotels Association and Tourism members have been stood down”: Restaurant & Catering Industry Association chief executive Wes Lambert said hospitality had had the most job losses of any sector as well as temporary and permanent closures. "Sales dropped 55 per cent in April [compared to the same time in 2019]," Mr Lambert said. "While we are seeing some recovery in May due to the stage-two easing of restrictions, with domestic

23 borders shut and very few flights between cities at very high prices there is no domestic visitor economy. With international borders closed for foreseeable future, our industry will remain artificially depressed by regulation."

Economists in Chicago and other places have tried to estimate how much damage was avoided by various elements of “early intervention”, to counter the ignorant rantings of laissez-faire ideologues. That general question is not addressed here: A path was taken - what could have been done better, what went wrong and why? Add, the PM and NSW Premier have a long, largely shared list of failures - why do they not apologise & repair?

There is a treatment of OECD’s “review of public expenditures” through this chapter but in- stimulus the delay caused these negative outcomes: • Payments started flowing on 1 May, 61 days later than they should have been. 1,400,000 jobs were lost in the time. This left the recovery phase suffering ~ a disproportionate number of displaced employees, reportedly with many refusing to come off the JobKeeper subsidy (nearly 2 million employees received more than they did in their jobs, which shows how poorly designed the scheme was) • Major institutions and companies and SMEs alike are unable to restore staffing in the face of poorly targetted and shrinking (through to disappearing) government subsidies during their reduced trading conditions • Many enterprises are short of refreshed stock and short of cash for rent and utilities as well as staff training, as labour is only about 40% of their cost structures so the stimulus disadvantaged them to a degree • Restricted customer limits and risk of re-closure if in a travel corridor • Air B&Bs favoured by the latest housing/developer package as they are substantially private properties Vs B&Bs which are commercial premises and ineligible • Debt overhangs due to the early requirement for them to seek loans for working capital instead of government support • Disturbed supply lines with trade disputes and part-interrupted air and sea links

Chicago economists have been mentioned. State and local governments here have been complaining, with businesses conflicting with them to no real purpose. None produced meaningful options and scenarios.

The processes which collapsed in turmoil need to be related to the timeline of appointments and movements of the the main actors, establishing the “fusion” between horizontal and vertical levels of the NSW cliques, in Federal and NSW parliaments and (also fused) executive layers, all defeating “democracy”, engagement and probity (or “due diligence”), as below, in three urgent parameters: 1. Neville Power started as chair of NCCC with the wrong orientation, was opposed to OECD’s and the UK/USA’s generalised subsidies, and did not focus on “the next few months”. He ignored this analyst except by thieving his regional orientation and doing nothing on key stimulus industry sectors which had been acknowledged by the PM but which the PM subsequently ignored 2. The arts and crafts sector had seen no targetted action and on 19 June the Federal Minister, Paul Fletcher, was attacked by State Ministers over Morrison’s refusal to extend the JobKeeper or other intermediate support to the sector. His aim is to set up festivals or exhibitions – which is irrelevant to stimulus principles, as explained here. The PM was developing that policy in the same unsuccessful manner as before, so it bloomed as a dead

24 cactus as all the previous efforts did – the media were getting wiser so the housing and arts packages were savaged as being orientated to owners and proprietors rather than workers. In mid-November disbursements had not even started. 3. The tourism, accommodation and travel segments have been told that the reverse approach, the extension of JobKeeper, might be announced but on 23 July – meaning a criminal delay of 144 days since the first payments could have flowed as established in the companion volume. The result was that Morrison cancelled it because he would not face me over my work on it.

SOLUTIONS

The early section on the SWOT condenses most of the recommendations. The fundamental theme is that the disarray of bushfires, rorts, corona and previous successive budgets must stop and be replaced by “old fashioned” due diligence. The best guide is arguably Greiner’s 2012 iNSW report. He like Eddington and OECD emphasise the importance of options testing.

In Morrison’s first 4 stimulus packages, starting well before the bushfires and Novel Coronavirus, there were no options considered but we know they existed in the ether and included: • Option A, status quo: muddle through behind closed doors, serial revisions, unclear objectives, little or no data and critical issues analyses, force opponents into gunboat diplomacy, throw up smokescreens about “$100 billion over 10 years” then retreat when whacked by forensic critique, ignore virus warning signs and thus be unprepared, persist with truly damaging infrastructure projects which are debt bombs, focus on idiocies like attacking firies and farmers out of ignorance, issue a meaningless national SMS message, evade Parliament, force businesses to borrow bridging cash instead of advancing the agreed amounts, have secret deals which undermine public processes (Baird/Gaetjens/ Calfas damage to Newcastle, Wollongong and “Morrison’s Backyard”), ensure LG reform is so inept that it cannot reoccur within 10 years (Tas, WA and NSW), befuddle media, and form a national cabinet to mask central confusion around inept political appointees • Option B: Prepare a national economic framework as PM Menzies and economist HC “Nugget” Coombs did post-1945, have transparent contingency planning based on risk analyses and science, understand and prepare for the inevitable next rounds of bushfires and bat crossover viruses, build up stocks of equipment and PPE, develop a contingency plan for border control + internal movements + placement of testing and hospital resources etc, recognise defects in Border Protection and RFS models and develop the alternatives, don’t make faux-marketing promises, inform media, reinstate full reporting of PIs and LG statistics, bring the people along with you • Option C – NSIP: face an emergency with alarum, expert economist prepares Newcastle Strategic Infrastructure Plan (framework) in 2 days, shares it with senior managers and Council – all agree, shares with all other 12 Councils in Hunter with Milton Morris – all agree, shares with NSW Minister for Planning Knowles – he endorses it as a model for the whole State. Mesh budgets and site programs, fully engage innovative businesses through 8 sector clusters with Council as facilitator – systematic foundation but municipal inertia reasserts with reversion to deficit budgeting, loss of council leadership. NSIP was based on gathering data and analyses from all sources before finalising implementation details – the opposite of Morrison’s approach.

25 “Incentives” mean giving enterprises and Humankind has had long experience with war individuals a good set of reasons to resume and civic disasters, all the way from Rome and trading and thereby pump disposable income Carthage &tc. More recently, many cities have into local businesses, making for a sustainable had big fires; smallpox, bubonic plague, cycle. It means months, not years - as Morrison influenza and pandemic viruses; and warfare said: “in the coming few months”. These are involving inhuman weapons, liquids and the things that produce fast results and are gases. There are other politico-management most loved by communities - food & challenges such as rail accidents and accommodation, arts, education, and climate shipwrecks. change mitigation. These are the areas Morrison The Sydney business community formed a has abandoned! Vigilance Committee in 1898 under the Morrison, his Deputy and Treasurer Frydenberg, inspiration of 3 Forgotten Heroes, Hughes, as well as the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Garlick and Fitzgerald, to try to force the State revert to big infrastructure when they talk about Government and the slum-lord City Council to “stimulus”. As in every single case, certainly rat-proof the wharves and demolish hovels everything Deputy PM McCormack touches, that within their curtilage. stimulus equals BOHICA - bend over, here it Nothing was done so plague broke out in late comes again. Frydenberg will be putting money January 1900 and recrudesced for the next nine into pipeline scams and rejecting all of the OECD years. The Government enraged the reformers stratagems he momentarily endorsed (until I (who won the 1900 municipal election and whacked him with reality). formed the Improvement Generation), by That’s the gibberish that Frydenberg and Dr taking the wharves and hinterland off the Lowe from the RBA uttered on Insiders and in TV Council and dithering and dallying. and radio interviews. Journalists shared the The parallel with “now” is stark. wonderment, not one dissected the Budgets, The point is, Novel Corona was the latest of a blunders and supposedly “repairing” MYEFOs. series of virus and other virulent diseases that None knew what stimulus is and that they talk Sydney and other cities had been “anti-stimulus”. through. There had been warnings, including So Frydenberg sat back until March. NCCC was from President Bush Snr in 2005 that the next created on 25 March (on an erroneous basis), corona outburst would come and he sought a showing that instead of speed, we had deferral. Budget allocation ($US 7.1 billion),for the The Government is even sillier, pursuing airlines augmentation of medical facilities and and distaining tourism and the arts. protective equipment, and epidemiological On the basis of my career experiences, I research and vaccine preparation, and the like. estimated that the planning template including Warnings were also given in Australia over the targets, cash pipelines or payment vectors, and last decade and more. Here as in US, the draft guidelines, would have been ready to go to warnings were ignored and the costs of delay public comment on 20 February, with payments after the outbreak, including shortages of PPE flowing from 1 March. That was all explained in equipment and lack of testing facilities, can be detail in my contra-Frydenberg policy documents assigned against the Treasury, Health and of 24 March on. related administrations of the recent past. By the end of July, NCCC had produced no So when PM Morrison was negotiating in stimulus ideas, a small set of school-standard January to evacuate Australians from Wuhan, “guides”, and controversy about bias to carbon his colleagues and staff should have gone fuels and especially gas which was said to be in into pre-emptive or fast-reaction planning surplus supply anyway. It did nothing about discussions, either but straight away. They tourism and neither did the caravan, hotels, should have brought in tax officers who knew clubs, accommodation and union lobbies. the weaknesses of BAS-based systems. A systemic approach would provide the basis for This is a normal management challenge akin measuring progress against objectives, targetted to BHP’s shock announcement of the closure

26 outcomes and speed and efficiency of payments. of steelworks announcement in Newcastle in That nonesuch was provided eliminated the 1997, where I had the recovery planning savings through the “feedback” mentioned template on the Lord Mayor’s table in 2 previously. days. The Planning Minister approved the Battles over terms of employment, industrial plan in 3 weeks, that is, after it had been relations, and leave and superannuation through Council and the Regional entitlements were all that came out of the Organisation of Councils. 3 weeks. employers/unions discussions. As with the States and Territories in the National Cabinet, true issues of industry policy and especially stimulus were excluded and they received no proper professional advice. Gaetjens is its monitor.

The Small Business Association formulates SME priorities as here:

The planning and management of economic recovery has to consider two important dimensions: 1. Recognising and repairing the scientific, economic, engineering, ethical and financial mistakes which still continue – the Charter of Budget Honesty needs to be implemented and value statements honoured (cf PM’s Anzac Day pronouncements) 2. Implementing well-designed, thoroughly consulted, science- and professional-based strategies which are matched against “needs” as well as targets and Performance Indicators

Gattorna Chorn’s “critical issues analyses” focussed on an average of 5 issues in each context, they being things that if done well will produce success and if done badly will produce failure. They include here:

27 Critical Issue Dimensions Explanations 1.Barriers to the • Separating Govt Past poor practice is being repeated already, improvement specification of needs with Ministerial interference and journalistic of national and and outcomes from naivete aplenty e.g. Shane Wright, regional professional project Infrastructure rebuild to form part of post-virus productivity, planning cf Grattan recovery plan (SMH May 7 ’20) employment Roads to Riches, with and community Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has pushed back community engagement and the federal budget, expected to show a deficit sustainability Parliamentary of more than $60 billion …. endorsement He and senior ministers are working on a • Adherence to proper pandemic economic recovery plan that will planning protocols in include policy reforms. (He) said NB quote at assessing all stimulus infrastructure will have to be a major element right shows a streams, large or small of that plan, as it will provide a near-term lack of – there is no legitimacy boost to the jobs market. economic logic now in transit and He said on top of the government's existing e.g. $100 billion tollway schemes 10-year infrastructure program there would be program had • Enforce Creative strong demand for new projects to help no “near-term Reconstruction of Local employ people who may have lost their jobs in boost” or “pick Governance other sectors "[It] includes infrastructure up that • Removing waste and spending, keeping that 10-year, $100 billion aggregate inefficiency pipeline [of works] going because we've got demand” – • Repairing iA’s to pick up that aggregate demand that may beware of the methodology as have fallen in other areas," he said. stalking contained in RG’s Berejiklian proposal to iA Berejiklian’s obsessions are all out of control, • Strengthening the must be paused, adopt RG’s “overlay” – NCCC in line with US EDDINGTON BEDROCK precedent 2.Stop poor focus • Remove focus from The Government has targetted its and repair SME infrastructure consultations with and early schemes to closedowns • Drop 30/75% percentage bigger businesses. through rapid thresholds in turnover Existing frameworks are orientated to Hong and targetted • Provide bonuses for re- Kong and other vested interests – remove subsidies & opening and re-staffing that support with departed It is time to recognise that revival will be vouchers employees based on cash spending by the vast number • Ramp-up site testing of re-employed managers and line workers, and contact tracing in especially in SMEs targetted zones such as The reliance on BASs is inappropriate, see tourism and inter- Report § “Options”. regional corridors Going on, it was inappropriate to set the start • Institute vouchers for date for measuring loss of turnover at 1 temporary personnel March. That produced a delay in reporting of support, starting with not less than 1 month. 780,000 jobs were lost childcare but including in the three weeks to 1 April. Payments essential employees should have been paid by 1 March, with post- adjustments.

28 3.Remove • Be aware of the Work back from the reality that the COVID-19 political ferocious nature of catastrophe was avoidable in terms of prejudices from novel Corona as seen in • Emergency protocols including health science rapid mutation and release onto the streets of slowly-revealed infected travellers symptoms in different • virus research age groups and genders • antiviral and vaccine product • Ensure that existing development professional research & • resourcing of hospitals advisory circles are • implementing quality assurance resourced and allowed in group establishments free expression including nursing homes and • Make contingency hospitals planning part of every • stocking PPE to disaster- Budget cycle, cascaded preparedness levels down to Executive contracts • Remove reliance on tricks and focus on surveillance 4.Remove • Political foci are on PR The websites and Report detail distortions in spin and smoke, not • Distortions and errors communications truth and meaning • Failures to check facts with including iA • Failures to offer corrections communities • Media are too naïve in • Bias towards politicians and accepting obviously neglect of ethical standards illogical processes, plans and policies Can politicians change their spots? This can • Community needs to be only happen through renewed focus by less confused – through independent journalists and bloggers and a open and honest more vigorous Parliamentary contest. communication as in NZ Political appointees have to be confined to • Government needs to accountable channels, with the reinstitution publish case studies e.g. of professional skills and independence in the Gaetjens on rorts, as departments, agencies and affiliates lessons and signposts

NATIONAL CABINET

The institution seems to be a hotbed of dissent, but the reality is can only work by majority votes as a PM’s fiat would be destructive. The current mode of attack by Berejiklian is unnecessary and extreme.

Then it cannot survive as, in effect, a subordinate of Gaetjens’ Department. If it is to be permanent, its needs a small secretariat and access to expert advice on all of the issues it intends to tackle. It needs to focus on the medico/economic balance, not long-term investment in gas.

Those issues need to be defined as in this report albeit imperfectly. Then reports going to it should be professionally analysed as in a regulatory impact statement but with iA methodology

29 tacked on. Today’s crisis can be traced back to specific timeframes, people and events. Future success depends on going back to the great days of nation-building. The destruction of “due diligence” arguably started in 1995 with the release of Bruce Baird’s Integrated Transport Strategy; and worsened under Labor up to Berejiklian’s betrayal in June 2012:

The origins of "Treasury Regs" - due diligence 1824 NSW Treasury, Economics Branch 1969 1968 Mishan Benefit Cost Analysis 1970 First Fed capital appraisal guidelines

The destruction of "Treasury Regs" 2015 PM is Malcolm Turnbull 2006-10 Labor's Metro Mania 2015 Western Sydney developers lead tram changes 2011 Mike Baird as Treasurer 2016 Turnbull gifts $1.7 b to metro, $98.4 m to Rail 2012 Infrastructure NSW Futures, $78.3 m to GSC tram 2011 Phil Gaetjens fom Canberra 2018 $24.5 b to congestion including $5 b Melbourne 2012 Berejiklian overturns iNSW Airport rail, $75 b pipeline 2016 Baird Berejiklian Perrottet - 2019 $9 b to technology, $100 b over 10 2019 Sports, womens facilities + congestion rorting "next priorities" lunacy years for infrastructure Masquerade 2020 Rorts explode: breaches of due diligence 2018-9 No "budget repair" - Frydenberg & Gaetjens

Then there is the two-point of engagement. NSW is led by the most destructive politician in its history, in my view, but she said in January 2017,

People want to be heard — not just at elections but at all times... I want to make it clear that should I be given the high honour today, as premier I will work hard for everyone, listening to everyone and governing for everyone .... I feel we’re in a process — (like) governments around the world — of adapting to a different set of expectations from the community Gladys Berejiklian in Daily Telegraph, 23 Jan ‘17

The Askin Government established a top-level interdepartmental committee called CUMPTAC then TRANSAC which was continued by Wran Unsworth and then called-for by Bruce Baird in 1995. This writer was its Secretary in the early 1980s. There was no industry or lobby representation and all interactions were proper and public. The system worked really well – and both Transport and Planning had higher productivity and lower costs than today’s mega-agencies. The Minister for Transport, Peter Cox, had no Labor identities or even Party members on his personal staff. (That is the complete opposite of today’s mess.)

Now, there is a moving feast of extremely expensive backroom mishaps called WestConnex and Metros which even iA has reported would have been cheaper and less contentious if pre-planning had been done better. In fact, not one of these “biggest projects in Australia” went through accepted processes including those explained in the Commission of Audit’s reports. The signal characteristic of post-1995 transport decision-making is avoidance of fiduciary and probity discipline.

Baird’s Treasury head, Philip Gaetgens, who has moved from heading the national Treasury to be boss of Prime Minister’s and Cabinet, departed just before the Sydney Morning Herald passed judgement on the mayhem Jacob Saulwick, “Baird’s public transport bonanza – big on promises, light on business cases” (SMH 5 October 2015) ~

... what will certainly emerge as an issue for the Baird government, is a general tendency to confuse marketing spiel for analysis. That's not a huge problem if you're producing brochures for internal consumption; it's more of an issue when you're spending billions on city-shaping

30 projects. ... there has been a bizarre and brazen refusal to justify, explain, and open to scrutiny, public transport projects. But at the same time, the failure to produce analyses of the many options and alternatives in building these projects is only becoming more apparent and more jarring.

That was the Baird/Gaetjens neutering of due diligence.

Every tourism region needs a Best Value 360o evaluation that uses the best data and engages all willing stakeholders. That the only one conducted was done by a citizen and was rejected by Turnbull shows how far PM Morrison has to go to get credibility if he is to “target” incentives.

What a mess sits on this Government’s social balance sheet. As England’s greatest reformer Lord Acton wrote, “Every thing secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear discussion and publicity”. Breaking down the accretions of political and media laxity can only come from 360o awareness. That would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad.

These lines shows the various dimensions of “blame” for better community understanding of irresponsibility:

A code of interaction between agencies and lobbies is needed, around these principles: 1. Targets: agency or official office/rs with responsibility for decisionmaking and/or advice in an ASIC industry sector/s. Includes ministerial offices, central bodies overseeing agencies, and audit/review roles 2. Lobbyists: industry association, company or individual representing members and commercial interests in the related ASIC sector/s 3. Persons in the target bodies must not a. Attend meetings at or otherwise advise lobbyists b. Communicate in any form with lobbyists c. Accept any favours or gratuities, present or future, from lobbyists except in accordance with PMC guidelines and real-time, on-line public reporting.

31 MEEFO, LOCAL RESILIENCE VS CLOSEDOWNS

Improved information is needed for targetting stimulus along with a willingness to adopt the OECD’s more sensible approach than cutting support when it is most needed. The elements are in the SWOT but following are the systemic matters to go into my mini-Budget:

Critical Issues for discussion © System defects Sustainable environment for economic o No locational intelligence - ABS had closed its continuity series in 2013, no LG business health survey o Proper State and national plans, formulated on series. TRA modelling too macro, iD municipal local inputs data dependent on Censuses o Alert system via smart phone aka bushfire proximity o Wastrel and incompetent political appointees o Contingency plan in each LGA, linked to central who must be neutered to stop the monotonic HealthWatch on-line facility - to judge scalability blundering and economic and community in suburb scale Vs whole regions hardship o Code for businesses to move between Stage 2 o Political incompetents in ministerial roles, no and higher in their site arrangements, more repairs, Cabinet suppressed flexibly o Politicians rejected medical advice of immediate o Restore ABS accommodation series or replace hospitalisation. NB that worked in Berrigan via Tourism Research Australia Shire and is to be pushed hard against political o LGs to be funded by NCC (from its allocation to stupidity polling consultancy) to establish an economic prosperity report, monthly on-line, showing o No PPE or hospital preparedness how industry sectors and locales are faring re o No prior war-gaming for border closures and targetting ongoing stimulus funding streams preparation of “SOP”s o Focus on SME health and not on the Big o No understanding of fast/scalable/ targetted Businesses on NCC mechanisms & pricing/ payment options o Wider range of types of activities to be funded so as to achieve integrated economics i.e. o No alert warning systems of Corona proximity education, energy & IT enterprises (technology and no scaling of response and local support) and boat/vehicle servicing & o Childcare was grossly out of scale Vs this upgradings analyst’s targetted, limited vouchers based on o Remove unproductive schemes, projects and employers’ certification (NB latter stolen by regulations, and commit savings to long-term Morrison) local-area revitalisation Poor stimulus payment Proper stimulus for schemes enterprises o Morrison first on 12 March and subsequent o Cease interference with business continuity, tranches - reliant on return of BASs which lack provide stress and skills supports - stop relevant data as well as lagging pretending there’s no problem and REPAIR o Payment schemes were step then another step REPAIR REPAIR (fixed incremental), not scalable o Unconditional grants for SMEs for re-staffing, re- o Too slow - 91 days delays til first payments on 1 opening, re-stocking, re-training & initial market May awareness o Too many exclusions - SMEs told to “get a loan”, $100,000 posited previously, now scalable re then draw down superannuation, casuals (food, number of employees up to 50 & $250,000, arts etc) excluded repayable if found to be less necessary than o Berejiklian $10,000 “corner store” scheme was claimed ridiculous in its terms (75%+ of turnover lost), o Local area childcare based on vouchers given to ignorant of facts e.g. wages are c 40% meaning participating centres on a weekly basis, keeping staff on sees the 60% crippling the employers’ certification business. 22 August is worse - see box below o Clean-out of NCC and iA and strengthening of focussed skill areas

32 I note that it is now accepted by NCCC that “The more we can develop predictable, reasoned and carefully considered closure processes to lock down outbreaks as they occur, then we don't need to fall back to what is an ultimate sledgehammer squashing an ant by closing the border completely” (Power on 21 August ’20 in SMH) - but he is the problem as he has picked up that theme from me, not having any background in the matters. Further more permanent border changes are being discussed Premier-to-Premier on a happenstance basis. That might not be the best outcome, National Cabinet has been defeating Morrison’s imperialist propositions and the members should be receiving better briefings than Morrison’s cabal is capable of. Berejiklian in particular must be curtailed. Berejiklian’s collapse of the Murray River Victorian “safety zone” from 50 kms to 2 kms on 21 July, overnight and without warning, was grossly incompetent and harmful - 71 employees of one club could not go to work and that club has been closed ever since. One hotel proprietor has a pub on each side of the river and is not allowed to go home or to open the Victorian one. There had been no recent cases on either side of the border as far as Shepparton, where there are cases, but that is controllable from the Victorian side, which has not been mentioned. Berejiklian cannot answer these questions: 1. What medical evidence was there to show an urgent secretive move was justified? 2. What regulatory impact statement was published in advance, or even since? 3. What medical evidence, based on knowledge of demographics and economics, showed which is the “best” option: 2 kms, 5 kms, 10 or 12kms, 15 kms, 20 kms, 25 kms - what? Given nearest infection is 54 kms from the River.

There has been massive criticism of Berejiklian’s political misbehaviour and the escalating spread of the virus in Sydney. She is fighting a minor relaxation of air arrival limits but can do no wrong in the view of her political co-dependent Morrison. This is an intolerable outcome for Australia - she is wrecking borders while he put his poxy ego ahead of a national tourism recovery plan. Both deserve to be censored and censured.

NB: in late August NSW decided to revert to 50 kms without analysis: it is the least-safe of the above options. Other immediate-term stimulus schemes were included in the package circulated across Australia, including resurfacing roads and upgrading drainage in tourist recreation parks, and providing hard ware and cost support to families and corporates who have to use Zoom intensively. Large-scale domestic travel will depend on integrated approaches to road capacity and safety improvements together with vigorous hostelry clusters and associated crafts and arts at strategic nodes. Many country towns have wonderful entrepreneurs doing great work but not on a scale that would re-balance the loss of international trade to the main centres. Governments have been slow in improving inter-regional roads and their land use strategies have put workers and families on the metro fringes where they congest interurban roads with their commutes. The main metro-political centres are almost Great Walls of China through their congestion and bewildering road networks. They are short on affordable caravan parks. There are the usual dreamers who will argue that the situation will merit more money on fast and even high speed trains. The sad economic imbalance between extended lead times, long distances, massive costs and low patronage compared with overseas exemplars, and the sick refusal to consider this analyst’s Mandurah model, make this an impossible dream. I included a third pensioner supplement, to boost local discretionary spending.

33 Understanding regions and SMEs together is probably beyond centralised governments, which is the message of UK Localism, but the task is real. Industry lobbies are largely insular and research institutes lacking in practical experience and empiricism around critical issues rather than academic principles. The political systems favour the primary conurbations and cannot “see” the regions. Party HQs have no policy role. The epicurean Tin Soldiers who manage the Federal Ministers are interested in the Blue Mountains or Bright but not Cobram, Bairnsdale or Corowa. Berejiklian and Morrison have flashed bright-light announcements at the media who generally have not realised that SMEs are delayed and badly stayed. City folk in Melbourne, more so than in Sydney where it does happen, speed off to the regions whenever a long weekend looms. The Trump and Morrison strategy, to wash their hands of Corona confusion by putting the onus on States and then abusing them, has ironic consequences. The complexities of increased spread of the virus in the countrysides, together with thin hospital and testing resources, plus the complexity of contract tracing where so many contacts are casual, will make the States a bit conservative on border crossings at times. The extreme danger associated with poor contact tracing (given the app has been an abject failure) is seen in the UK’s crisis since Boris Johnson suspended their program.

LOCAL GOVERNMENT

My “solution set” for metropolitan governance addresses all of the elements listed above and below in a coherent way so that the possibility is there for progressive achievement of the best governance system in the world – I submit.

Central government has kept local government on a tight leash, strangling the life out of councils in the belief that bureaucrats know best. By getting out of the way and letting councils and communities run their own affairs we can restore civic pride, democratic accountability and economic growth – and build a stronger, fairer Britain. Hon Eric Pickles MP

The harsh reality is that local governance was to be a focus of the O’Farrell Coalition’s and of Federal Minister Albanese’s reform moves about a decade ago. The effect was that BOF’s successor Mike Baird wrecked local government so that it is in a greater disarray than a century ago!

There are specific examples here with remedies at the bottom – food and accommodation being parts of the regional economies and never to be forgotten when we think about the City Vs The Bush balance:

The Tourism Accommodation Association had published a condemnation of Blue Mountains planning and endorsed my detailed analyses, such as debunking the effects of the October ’13 fires (the normal cycle of demand was maintained compared with previous years). There had been past studies of housing supply problems including too many developable lots within known firepaths and an overall strangling of affordable housing. The major finding related to the pernicious effects of resort monopoly influences on mainstreet competitors’ rent levels, with a rising number of empty shops on Katoomba Street.

34 These conclusions were put to PM Turnbull and then Assistant Minister Colbeck who both rejected this landmark study of repairs to critical regional issues: 1. Non-achievement of the 2020 Visitor Economy targets that had been agreed at national and state levels, with government agencies (Destination NSW and Industry NSW) and lobbies (HIA, IPWEA, Clubs NSW, Tourism Accommodation, Restaurant & Catering etc) refusing to acknowledge and take responsibility for appropriate reforms put to and even by them; as well as making mistakes in their own publications 2. Blue Mountains City Council pumping up rates by 70 – 120% over 3 years without justification, misleading Federal Ministers over bushfire consequences, and adopting land use policies that prevent implementation of the Tourism & Recreation Plan 2011 – regional chambers resented the Council’s deceit but refused to support ReviveBlueMountains and one of the most prominent even said he agrees with BMCC’s anti-development stand. IPART refused to listen when comprehensive analyses showing the rating-calculations and consultation were mistakes were offered to them 3. A path to fix (1) and (2) via Regional Visitor Economy Strategic Plans based on my template (including fixing AUSTRADE’S mistaken Sydney Tourism Education Plan).

The basis for restoring the energy of local government, beyond the data collection and local bio- security measures already, is in this report which was commissioned by the Coalition before the 2011 NSW election, it was defeated by self-interest.

35 SYSTEMATIC INFRASTRUCTURE/PRODUCTIVITY & INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA

It was just about enough when the AFR reported on 30 June ’17 that NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet has pledged to work closely with the federal government on a planned $12.5 billion (stet, should be “more than”) line from Sydney to Parramatta in a sign he is hoping to grab some of the $10 billion of federal funds on offer .... Infrastructure lobby groups have urged the NSW Government to fund the West Metro project urgently .... Property developers argue the line will services (stet) suburbs like Homebush where the state government has encouraged them to build huge housing developments. There is no scoping, no feasibility of options, no “first plan before transport projects are dreamt up”, no benefit/cost analyses, no community engagement – no legitimacy. Once again unelected interests are covering governments’ eyes and leading them to the developers’ trough. The Federal Minister for Infrastructure at least said iA would be consulted first. Coming generations will face a depleted treasury, an inefficient transport/land use context, and an inability to correct mistakes for at least one generation. Engineering performance has been poor under the Labor/Berejiklian metro regime: • Plans for the Metro extension were made before locations had been set which is an admission that no feasibility and business case stages (stages #2 and #3 under iA) had been done. The same happened with the West Metro which has no logic but the imperative of lobby influence and “ideology and stupidity” • Metro environmental statements gave poor locations for depots and stabling, Labor’s on the water at Rozelle (neat trick for a deep underwater railway – train lifts?); and Bankstown’s was inconclusive, “somewhere near the end” of the extension (a supplementary site to the main one in the NW) – TfNSW could not even decide whether Bankstown or another place was feasible as the western terminus The saddest thing of all is that so little has been learnt from a decade of disarray. The Telegraph had reported in August 2009 that $8 billion would produce travel times savings of only 2 minutes per passenger. Then Premier Nathan Rees had said in 2008 that “the CBD Metro has to be pushed through at all costs”; and then, as had his hapless predecessor Morris Iemma done about the West Metro in 2008, he said he’d expect the Federal Government to pay for the same. Nick Greiner’s iNSW overturned a few shibboleths but was defeated by Berejiklian’s Big Projects – and iNSW has never recovered its mojo.

As a reminder, iA’s Australian Infrastructure Plan is clear: • Proponents of new infrastructure which do not undertake the prerequisite project development work risk poor outcomes, preventing the community from accessing the infrastructure they require, and restricting economic opportunities. • Prior to investment decisions, governments should define the problem that needs to be addressed. Problems are identified through long-term integrated infrastructure planning and the analysis of strategic data sources such as Infrastructure Australia’s Audit. Once the problem has been defined, early project development studies should then proceed. These include: • Strategic options assessments: demonstrate the nature and scale of the problem(s) and identify solutions which may or may not involve the delivery of new infrastructure; • Feasibility studies: undertake engineering, environmental and economic assessments to develop solutions into fully-scoped projects; and • Project business cases: provide more detailed economic assessments, including cost- benefit analysis.

36 • These studies help ensure the right infrastructure solution is selected and that benefits to the community are maximised.

PM Morrison regularly says that “infrastructure is stimulus” and talks about major freeways, railways, pipelines, mines and ports – which is the opposite of professional planning approaches as smaller, faster to deliver and less big-ticket projects have higher benefits, usually. (Established by Eddington and Greiner but NCCC is making the same mistake.)

However, the most dangerous aspects of the PM’s belief are that it permits funding to be diverted from productive opportunities, and be corralled in projects that have been shown to be infeasible and/or counter-productive. They are slow- to- never in arriving. That is clearly demonstrated in the PM’s own electorate where he has done nothing to repair the problems caused by his NSW peers. It is also seen in NCCC’s constitution which will damage the whole nation.

ST GEORGE IS NOT SO DIFFERENT TO THE NORTHERN BEACHES, OR SW SYDNEY, OR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS …. What chance do we have when “pre-planning” is so defective? end/ - what

- The Federal Budgets have grown the infrastructure commitment from $75 billion to - over 10 years to $100 billion, but there has been no forensic dissection of the value or but - hat

- cost effectiveness of projects. NSW is over $90 billion, mostly unfunded. The Fed $100 billion comprises a bucket of previously announced projects such as $10 magicians - a - billion on Inland Rail and $5.2 billion to Badgerys Airport, both being off-Budget. The from

- first is an economic basket case, the second the worst possible outcome of all the options. NSW excludes problems spots and over-funds pet projects. doves - like - Many of the ideas in the treasure chests are political gifting, displacing priority ideas and lacking economic merit. The false promise = $200 billion more than has treasury - been promised, to achieve the projects in the promised timeframe. leave - As Mark Ludlow of the AFR commented on such off-Budget deals, this “could create a fiscal timebomb for future governments if the projects do not deliver commercial returns and the equity investment has to be moved back onto budget”. They do not so deliver – we know that right now. Fundamental outcomes are being ignored including reducing rail deficits while filling transit gaps – with $40 billion wasted in Sydney alone, and reversing the This is from the St George and Sutherland strengthening of local government in line with US “innovation districts” and UK Shire Leader, which is the largest-circulation local newspaper in NSW and covers the PM’s Localism – all in “Save Sydney”. electorate. I’ve published five pieces of like nature there which are listed later, and the https://www.theleader.com.au/story/6028397/funds So how do St George, the Northern Beaches, the Highlands, Western Sydney &tc community is angry. get to be heard properly …?

The PM’s “backyard” covers much of the south-east ocean playgrounds, hospitals and schools of the “St George and Sutherland” sector. The employment profile appears in brief on page 5, the food and accommodation sector is on the light side compared with other LGAs’.

St George’s 1950s-‘60s Rugby League team was the greatest in the world. It is famous for many other things, with the PM’s own suburb of Cronulla arguably being the best urban surfing beach in the nation.

Sutherland has always needed a passport for Sydney outsiders to get in, well, almost. Its National Park was the second in the world to be declared, and is a wonderland. Its Rugby League team is a heartbreaker, with the courage of a White Pointer but with not too many cups in the display cabinets.

It is also possibly the most mismanaged governance sector in Sydney, which is not to say that the innerwest, northwest and increasingly southwest aren’t doosies. Baird made the combined council of Bayside from two dysfunctional councils into a big one covering the Port and Airport as well as major highways and rail lines.

37 Sutherland Shire Council is besotted with its Golden Boy and has rejected requests to support Forced densification to subsidise NW + the repair – the chart at right is an Metro / Nth Beaches Full trains will frustrate Connex overview from Eddington Worst Airport Tunnel is transit connection unnecessary Bedrock: from Christie to Greiner in the world, St Parra/Epping Marys/NW Con ll relieves MainWest Early NW to Severe over- to Gibbons. It is clear that KSA via centralisation of tram/train Goanna transit networks politicians and journalists have Greiner 40,000 per lost the real perspective on hour, each direction Axial Densification Sydney’s dire challenges. creating Maginot Line Best Airport transit connection in the Truck congestion due to “Productivity” is being smashed, world Road & Rail mistakes Mega Metro Tunnel Line close-down – bus congestion, forced diversions to not compromised. roads Unnecessary Metro Sutherland and Cronulla miss out on Takes c 30% of trains metro despite promise Metro Option – no analysis out of centre, direct SE/SW/NW services The main points of Greiner/Gibbons dysfunctionality, with comments

Massive growth areas cut off from transit, forced Forced changes, loss of on maladministration, show how to congest main roads FOREVER special events & emergency response Maldon-Dombarton & capacity serious the issues are. They are SW extension to be Port Kembla cut off appraised from Inland Rail summarised here (my associated websites have considerable amounts of chronology, economics & governance, and historical details):

Main Line heavy • The legacy Bradfield line is heavily loaded with suburban, rail interurban and freight services, which have reached critical levels in the southern Wollongong and Port Kembla catchments, as they are interconnected • The NSW Government has ignored their own agencies’ alarms and imperilled port and commuting services along the whole line. Metro Transit • Baird and Berejiklian announced metro trains would run to Sutherland when they made their pre-emptive announcement on the Bankstown Line conversion to metro – neither legitimised through probity or economic assessments, Parliamentary or electoral franchise, or community engagement; and both crippling the Bradfield system and its commuting, freight, special events and emergency response capabilities. • Chaotic “pre-engineering” is characteristic of the Berejiklian approach cf 4 trams, WestConnex, and ports. It took almost 2 years for the mercenaries to realise there were engineering barriers. The promise was cancelled. • Berejiklian refused to look at this analyst’s Swifta-based scheme to run transit from the NW to Strathfield and then on to Hurstville and Sutherland, and back via CBD and Airport if desired, without Berejiklian’s engineering issues and the need for 2nd Harbour Crossing – cheaper, faster & more effective. This is an historical blunder that will sit eternally on Berejiklian’s head. She neither owns nor permits innovative thinking in her silos - the suppression of professionalism. Port trucking • The forced monopoly over container importing at Port Botany is • Botany - mandated by the Port B0tany company and its CEO, Marika containers Calfas, who chaired PM Turnbull’s port policy review (which endorsed anti-competitive and anti-community industry

38 • Kembla – privileges), The physical limitation of the site and rail connections imported means that truck numbers are increasing inexorably. cars • The company also owns Port Kembla which has a near-total ban Moorebank on container trucking but ever increasing car carrier movements – despite a promise to have them on rail by 2010 (has not distribution happened) trucks • The Moorebank intermodal terminal was an Albanese-led conversion of Army land on mercenary grounds, and it increases trucking in the western side of the catchment, ironically in Melissa Gibbons MP’s seat (she being Kent Johns’ partner who has the Miranda end of the mess) • The east/west freight line came from Ron Christie’s work in 2000- 01 and has already been hijacked then repelled by passenger train lobbies. It is nonsensical until the Botany end of the line is brought to potential capacity Motorway • The N/S F6 “concept” emerged in the 1950s and a corridor was connections reserved but apparently detailed plans were never prepared. 20 • North/South years ago Labor released some of the corridor and proposed a • East/West tram or similar instead of tollroad. • The eastern end of WestConnex was to connect with the F6 and Port/Airport “Gateway” via massive grade-separated “spaghetti” interchange. Along with the Rozelle end, the engineering was dreadful and better options were excluded • The Baird Government deliberately omitted transit from their F6 business case • The Rockdale City Council proposal that was included in Destinations 2020-plus in 2005 was developed by top transport engineers and economists. Linking with the existing Airport and M5 roads is a genuine option that the community should insist be included in genuine community engagement • The RMS alignment would stress innerwest suburbs such as Tempe and Newtown which are always heavily trafficked anyway. Bayside vitality • Liberal Mayor of Rockdale John Flowers agreed with this analyst’s proposal to revitalise Brighton-le-Sands. Some of the top urban designers and architects in the land developed innovative concepts for • Traffic taken off the Grand Parade through a sophisticated “local road” option within the F6 corridor, with massive environmental and driver benefits (capacities being about equal, deliberately – the Pde had reached saturation equilibrium) • Grand Pde turned from a “traffic sewer” into a transit boulevard • New international hotel opposite the Novotel • New beachside entertainment and exercise facilities • New pier and marina, parking within the pier, theatre and tech hub at end of pier • New public pool • Reconfigured Bay St – greater intensity of plantings as well as home-style clinics and boutiques

39 • Relocation of Council HQ and construction of a “James St” (Fortitude Valley, Brisbane) retail hub to regenerate the Princes Highway end of Bay St

This package was arguably the most exciting urban redevelopment scheme in Australia. It survived the next (Labor) mayor but not the third. It was beyond a single council but was within the State’s capabilities.

That was innovation, stimulus and immensely popular. What is left is a mess: the NSW Transport model of current motorways projects (below) shows the reality of a Berejiklian Government’s psychotic obsession with using debt to subsidise Hong Kong metros in Manhattanised canyons in western and south-western Sydney, in the north, and in the east. The NSW Government abandoned the COAG- mandated “city plan” process in 2012, and produced no equivalent. The companion volumes show that • None of its projects meet accepted economic, environmental or engineering standards – this is “anti-stimulus” in their own terms. The lines do not support fringe growth areas whose commuting congests motorways • The dark blue/orange line represents a massive motorway and massive cost, and the illegitimate rejection of this analyst’s scheme which Baird stole in 2008 and used from then

40 to 2016 (lower financial and environmental cost and much sooner delivery) • The yellow/lime line represents a truncated F6 and a “gateway” connection to the airport & port: camouflages 2 massive interchanges, failure to rail containers, worsens truck congestion in Miranda, and even longer delays.

Jumping into the helicopter there are 8 “conclusions” (all evidence-based) to be addressed, with two major myths to follow (please allow for slight deja vue): 1. Accepted standards of analysis, scenario-testing and community engagement are ignored. PPPs are developed on a link-by-link basis and governments and lobbies were slow to respond to submitters’ urgings on this point. Governmental structures are silos within silos and major re-engineering is needed 2. Transport and other infrastructure strategies have not matched challenges with solutions and so are wasting large amounts of money without achieving better accessibility, safety and housing age and wisdom – meaning their outcomes are not achieved by their solutions but would be by “outsider” solutions they treat with distain (while threatening proponents with legal action). Some of their ideas were classically idiotic, such as the NRMA’s train along the Manly beachfront and the Business Chamber’s HST across the Harbour Bridge’s train tracks 3. Ministers and the Daily Telegraph have used Bradfield’s name to retro-justify WestConnex and the Metro whereas Bradfield was a meticulous planner who became famous for engaging communities in their local halls 4. Liquor controls confused crime with mainstreet vitality: local solutions should see tourism and cultural needs better met in a Japanese style while Police manage transit and street issues before they become crises. Business people decry the empty streets and visitors find it most strange that a tourism destination in a “world city” closes at midnight, This is a microcosm of the confused approaches of NSW Governments 5. Developers see profit in immigration (resident or absentee investor) and dominate political thought, and while immigration produces a general economic stimulus, the pace of immigration has exceeded society’s capacity to adapt without conflict in specific locales. Taken with the drive for high-rise apartments in congregated estates without outdoor living space or adequate residential oversight, planning and engagement, and building provisions, there is a foretelling of instability 6. Universities are no longer the source of wisdom via advocacy, their statutory duties now discourage academics from major issues and contributing to strategic causes, while making them antagonistic to outsiders 7. The needs of an ageing society are not being carried through strategic down to regional and local plans 8. Taxation solutions are top-down and proven to be ineffective, while past solutions which were meaningful are discarded along with participatory democracy.

The Novel Coronavirus has smashed immigration rates and changed market parameters in the cities. The social dislocation that erratic social support policies have driven are negative and we might be looking at a mini-Fanny Mae crisis.`

41 The Environmental Planning & THE$CURRENT$SYSTEM$ THE$ALTERNATIVE$SYSTEM$ Assessment Act 1980 contained Department+of+ METRO+ Planning+&+ State SEPPs and REPs which Environment+ cascaded down to council LEPs RMS+/+company+ Plan+to+Grow+ WESTCONNEX+ Sydney+ (and advisory DCPs). Treasury LGA+&+COMMUNITY+ URBANGROWTH+ Guidelines controlled NSW+ GREATER+SYDNEY+ GREATER+SYDNEY+ COMMISSION+ implementation projects. Unsolicited+ COMMISSION+–+ amended&role& Progressive distortions saw DCPs Proposals+

Plan+to+Grow+ being recognised by courts (later Sydney+ METRO+ turned into advisories), Department+of+ Planning+&+ LGA+&+Community+ Environment+ RMS+/+company+ insufficient coverage of REPs, WESTCONNEX+ static LEPs but too many spot URBANGROWTH+ rezonings. Treasury Guidelines NSW+

Unsolicited+ were progressively avoided by Proposals+ agencies, leading to Commissions of Audit’s words - rigorous and holistic asset planning in NSW is sometimes absent and tends to follow, rather than lead, the commitment to an infrastructure investment.

The alternative system is described above. It would put consultative and engagement processes higher in the accountability chain; while projects would be outcomes rather than “reverse silo” or “black box” and lobby drivers of transformation.

Peril & Lost Opportunities: IP theft

The unfortunate reality is that the PM has locked away invaluable, indeed profitable and productive, Intellectual Property out of malice, and as he and NSW owe me, I will remain a thorn in their sides until a fair settlement is reached. The other issue is the unbelievable error rates that exist within the Canberra Bubble:

Political • Baird appointed Phil Gaetjens to NSW Treasury in replacing “due appointments diligence” as in Nick Greiner’s and the Commission of Audit’s 2012 and theft of reports – Greiner was ejected by Berejiklian in full populist politics mode Intellectual while the Commission watered-down its final version Property from • Berejiklian stacked NSW Transport’s top strata with trusties and 2008 produced PR-style “plans” which lacked logic and even consistency between editions, sacking people who did not comply with HMV • Head of Infrastructure Mike Mrdak said that if you want a good idea killed, send it to PMC, which is when PMC’s Stephen Kennedy – who had worked with Turnbull and Baird on the disastrous Western Sydney City Deal – replaced Mrdak and rejected “Budget repair” • NSW then Federal Governments coached journalists into mute acceptance of obviously-erroneous reports and processes • Treasury failed to force Transport to reduce the 60% of major projects which lack details in its Budget and Appropriations (noted by Greiner) • Governments sidelined experts and did not act on professional protocols, including reducing bushfire risks and failing to heed the inevitability of successive zoonoses – the COVID-19 catastrophe is regarded as having been avoidable had wiser heads been in charge of US and Australian Governments in particular

42 • Baird in 2008 and Berejiklian, PMs Turnbull and Morrison and political appointees in Infrastructure, Treasury, Greater Sydney Commission and PMC stole this analyst’s Intellectual Property to a gross extent, refusing restitution, thus sabotaging their own credibility and political credence – continued through all stimulus stages and ongoing until they turn adversary into partnership.

CONCLUSION

The National Cabinet is accepted now as a worthy innovation, but it is not working in a forward- looking sense nor in an internal consensus sense. There is no firm demarcation between the Feds and the State and Territories and there is too much blame-shifting.

Massive issues have been unpeeled: gross defects in aged care (related deaths are mainly in Commonwealth owned facilities), in quarantine and Border Control, stimulus methodologies and programs, investment decisions over gas which should be in iA, SME employment and crises in loan and rent balloons, and removing closures by strengthening community resilience.

These need strong and positive National Cabinet discussions.

So unless the methodological and political issues are properly addressed, it is of little value. Just as Berejiklian dismissed her friend as head of Planning over the locus of the Greater Sydney Commission, the PM’s personal control over Big Business privileges is too close to de- democratisation.

This document and associated social and web media are strictly copyright © and breaches will incur an invoice for the imputed value which, on the Berejiklian Mates Rates scale, is $17 million excluding GST.

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