CORONA STIMULUS & RECOVERY © SERIES REPORT # 2 N A T I O N A L G O V E R N A N C E E F F E C T I V E N E S S in line with ACCEPTED BUDGETTING, PLANNING & ENGAGEMENT PROTOCOLS ROBERT GIBBONS 18 NOVEMBER 2020 © see copyright statement on last page INTRODUCTION Bubonic Plague hit Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne in 1900 and the Sydney response was the world’s most famous, the “social laboratory of the world”. Governance was key to that response, medicine was supportive. 120 years later the Novel Coronavirus thence COVID-19 was mayhem, warnings had been ignored and Australia was sliding backwards economically. There is supposed to be a self-correcting mechanism called “budget repair” when a government finds it mismanaged bushfires and rorts so that the next one would be better planned and organised. The opposite happened, repair (MYEFO) was cancelled, delays became critical, mistakes abounded as the “Canberra Bubble” did not know how to prepare a “plan” as I had done in 2 days when BHP announced the closure of steelmaking in Newcastle in 1997. The States pushed PM Morrison into setting up a cooperative National Cabinet on 13 March 2020. It emerged from the Canberra Bubble without any explanation of logic, objectives, modus operandi or budget, and this analyst predicted it would fail as soon as a member’s self-interest clashed with the collective view – and that was a safe bet as NSW’s Premier, Glady Berejiklian, is an habitual renegade and regularly attacks her peers. It has been under the control of the PM’s department head who has a NSW reputation for negative practices (he used to report to Berejiklian). Revelations that the PM had secretly met with his political compatriot, Leader of the Queensland Opposition, ostensibly to overturn national consensus on border security in her political self- interest, destroyed what little was left after the Morrison Government and its acolytes “dog whistled” right-wing dissidents into attacking politicians and journalists. The PM as-capriciously announced a new “hot spot” approach but expressing his intention to not be out-voted again. The news that COVID-19 is recrudescing quickly in safer parts of the world reinforces the need to improve governance in an holistic sense, as in the companion volume, BORDER WARS: MEDICINE, MANAGEMENT & CONFUSION. The internecine warfare waged by NSW is in the hands of the gods, to be stilled only by reconciliation around this report. CONTENTS OVERVIEW OF ISSUES & SWOT .................................................................................................................. 3 CONTEXT: MARCH 2020 .......................................................................................................................... 8 The Bubble ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Stimulus Stages ................................................................................................................................ 12 OECD Guidelines and Imputed Critical Framework ......................................................................... 17 SOLUTIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 25 National Cabinet ............................................................................................................................. 29 MEEFO, Local Resilience Vs closedowns .......................................................................................... 32 Local Government ........................................................................................................................... 34 Systematic Infrastructure/Productivity & Infrastructure Australia ............................................... 36 Peril & Lost Opportunities: IP theft ................................................................................................ 42 2 Overview of Issues & SWOT The National Cabinet was an unexpected concept that emerged as, in mid-March 2020, the States and Territories pushed a dithering PM Morrison to start to organise a proper Corona response. The PM’s press release of that date said, quoted in full here, “A new National Cabinet, made up of the Prime Minister, Premiers and Chief Ministers has been set up and will meet at least weekly to address the country’s response to the coronavirus, COVID-19.” He added The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC, led by the Commonwealth’s Chief Medical Officer and comprising the chief health and medical officers from each jurisdiction, together with the National Coordination Mechanism convened by the Department of Home Affairs, will be the primary bodies that will advise the National Cabinet. The National Coordination Mechanism will work across all jurisdictions, industry and key stakeholders to ensure a consistent approach to managing the impacts of this pandemic beyond immediate health issues. It comprises all Premiers and Chief Ministers with the NZ PM joining in relation to discussions over an air transport “bubble” between the two countries. Cabinet secrecy was observed until the PM gave access privileges to his business cronies, following which he has no case to keep the Minutes secret. On 25 March the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission was announced and “The National Security Committee of Cabinet's COVID-19 Taskforce and the Expenditure Review Committee of Cabinet continue to take decisions that determine the Commonwealth's response to the global COVID-19 pandemic". Given secrecy, it is not clear whether this is the mess it looks like. February had been wasted as my experience in Newcastle’s response to the announcement of closure of steelmaking showed that that was the right time to plan and prepare – I have said the arrangements should have been in place by the 20th, I had and have that experience but the Federal executives are not experienced in the real word and blew away any chance of saving the initial downturn which was reported to be well over 1 million jobs lost, fast. The detailed chronologies have been covered on the stimulus-stupidity.com website and will not be repeated here. They do not represent a well-tuned bicycle, more of a donkey’s path through the corn fields. The PM has repeatedly said he had a plan but that is like saying his fused ally, the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has a fine management record (which is covered at sydneyimprovementpolitics.com). He was continuously contradicted as he blundered through one failed episode after another, with increasing revelations of corruption and waste, and even the withdrawal of labour in regions because the workers earn more off-site and idle. There was no question that a national approach was the right way to go, given the Federal Government’s Constitutional and legislative primacy. Border issues were paramount, most states and Territories had concerns but NSW was primary having let in 4 cruise liners with infected cases, with no effective sign of the promised federal Border Force lead. While those conniptions have largely settled down – Border Force remaining a sticking point – further progress requires a re- think of relationships and roles in various areas including aged care, quarantine (with Fed blame- shifting), and levelling-our risks and solutions between jurisdictions (harmonisation). 3 The graphic is a representation of how well the Federal Government’s “stimulus” package achieves stimulus. The mention of the $20 billion is from media which has not been confirmed through perusal of Budget documents yet. • $20 billion commitment to SMEs • Youth employment • Positive measures Reversal of debt obsession under duress • Tax cuts Degree of • Lie abt SME support – malice re food & Stimulation Negative & wasteful accommodation, arts & recreation, education measures & others as in OECD • Corruption of National Cabinet • Rejection of great ideas including Goanna Transit Bridge, Bondi Beach & Syd Uni expressnets, and Local Govt revitalisation • Continuation of catastrophic NSW mistakes Ethical & Moral Failures Ø Rozelle congestion entanglement & Nthn • Theft of ideas being used Beaches impossible tollway • Misogyny & abuse Ø Metros’ intrinsic capacity strangulation • Breaches of codes & which is unsustainable – must be paused protocols including lobbyist conflicts & re-planned via strategic process A small observation, a hindsight, is that two fine journalists later published historical parallels with the Spanish Influenza in 1919 where the procedures had been worked out. I am the historian of bubonic plague and I’d say the same. Neither case came to mind in time which reflects Australians’ lack of appreciation for past heroes, as the governments reinvented the wheel but so slowly. Moreover, the primary characteristics of the processes were these three themes: 1. There is no logic or system in the PM’s camp which comprises his Office and his Department and Treasury, and the main Big Business lobbies such the Business Council of Australia, the Menzies Research Centre (a massive misnomer) and the two institutes, Public Affairs and Independent Studies 2. The 1998 Budget reforms introduced by then Treasurer Peter Costello included “budget repair” but the subsequent takeover by right-wing ideologues spelt death to an suggestion of the primacy of the petticoat politicians, men and women, who have proved to be unskilled and unsuccessful – in NSW, catastrophically so. So mistakes were made and ignored, hidden and