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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS October 1985

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS October 1985 OCTOBER 1985 / VOLUME 65 NUMBER 10 SUBVEY OF CUBBENT CONTENTS Business Situation 1 U.S. Department of Commerce National Income and Product Accounts Tables 8 Malcolm Baldrige / Secretary Sidney L. Jones / Under Secretary An Advance Overview of the Comprehensive Revision of the for Economic Affairs National Income and Product Accounts 19 Bureau of Economic Analysis Motor Vehicles, Model Year 1985 29 Allan H. Young / Director State Quarterly Personal Income, 1978:1-1985:11 30 Carol S. Carson / Deputy Director Metropolitan Area Projections of Income, Employment, and Population to the Year 2000 32 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Editor-in-Chief: Carol S. Carson Manuscript Editor: Dannelet A. Grosvenor Managing Editor: Leland L. Scott Staff Contributors to This Issue: Leo M. Bernstein, Robert L. Brown, Carol S. Carson, Gerald F. Donahoe, Douglas R. Fox, Gurmukh S. Gill, John A. Gorman, Linnea Hazeri, Shelby W. Herman, Daniel J. Larkins, Larry R, Moran, Robert P. Parker, Tracy R. Tapscott, Isabelle B. Whiston, Regional Economic Analysis Division SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. Published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Editori- al correspondence should be addressed to the Editor-in-Chief, Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230. Annual subscription: second-class mail—$30.00 domestic; $37.50 foreign. Single copy: $4.75 domestic; $5.95 foreign. First-class mail rates and foreign air mail rates available upon CURRENT BUSINESS STATISTICS request. General SI Mail subscription orders and address changes to the Superintend- Industry S19 ent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. Footnotes 833 Second-class postage paid at Washington, DC and at additional Subject Index (Inside Back Cover) mailing offices. (USPS 337-790). The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through April 1,1985. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE DISTRICT OFFICES AH, Anchorage 99513 GA, Savannah 31412 VIY Minneapolis 554O! Nil, New York 01278 TN, Memphis 38102 701 CSt. 271-5041 125-29 Bull St. 944-1204 110 S. 4th St. 725-2133 26 Federal Plaza 264-0634 147 Jefferson A*e. 521-3213 AL, Birmingham 352O5 Hi. Honolulu 96850 MO, Kansas City 64106 OH, Cineinatti 45202 TX, Dalla* 75242 908 S. 20th St. 254-1331 300 Ala Moana Blvd. 546-8694 601 E. 12th St. 374-3142 550 Main St. 684-2944 11000 Commerce Si. 767-0542 AR, Little Roek 72201 IA, Des Momes 50309 MO, St. Louis 63105 320 W. Capitol Ave. 378-5794 210 Walnut Si. 284-4222 120 S. Central Ave. 425-3302 OH, Cleveland 44114 TX. Houston 77O02 666 Euclid Ave. 522-4750 515 Rusk St. 226-4231 AZ, Phoenix 85073 It. Chicago 60603 MS, Jackson 39213 201 N. Central Ave. 26! 4285 55 E. Monroe St. 353-4450 300 Woodrow Wilson Blvd. 960-4388 OK, Oklahoma City 73105 IT, Salt Lake City 84101 CA, Los Angeles 90049 IN, Indianapolis 46204 NC, Greensboro 27402 4024 Lincoln Blvd. 231-5302 350 S. Main St. 524-5! 16 11777 San Vicente Blvd. 824-7591 46 E.Ohio St. 269-6214 203 Fed, Blclg., W. Market St. 378-5345 OR. Portland 97204 VA, Richmond 23240 CA, San Francisco 94102 ICY, LouisviHe 4O202 MS, Omaha 68102 1220S.W. 3rd Ave. 221-3001 400 N. 8th St. 771-2246 ISO Golden Gate Ave, 556*5860 U.S. P.O. & Courthouse Bi 300 S. 19th St. 221-3664 PA, Philadelphia 19106 W A. Seattle 98109 CO, Denver 80202 LA, New Orleans 70130 INJ, Trenton 086O8 600 Arch St, 597-2866 1700 Westlake Ave., Rm: 706 442-5616 72i . 19th St. 837-3246 432 Internationa! Trade Mart 589*6546 240 W. State St. 989-2100 PA, Pittsburgh 15222 <rr. Hartford 06103 MA, Boston O2116 MM, Albuquerque 87102 Wl. Milwaukee 53202 1000 Liberty Ave, 644-2850 450 Main St. 244-3530 441 Stuart St. 223-2312 505 Martjuette Ave., IV.W. 766-2386 517 E. Wisconsin Ave. 291-3473 FL, Miami 33130 MD> Baltimore 21202 NV, Reno 895O3 PR, San Juan 00918 WV, Charleston 25301 25 W. Flakier St. 350-5267 415 t.S. Customhouse 962-3560 777 W. 2nd St. 784-5203 Rm: 659, Federal BIdg. 753-45: 500 Quarrier St. 343-6181 GA, Atlanta 30309 MI, Detroit 48226 NY, Buffalo 14202 SC, Columbia 29201 WY, Cheyenne 82001 1365 Peat-htree St., N.E. 881-7000 231 W. Lafayette 226-3650 111 W. Huron St, 846-4191 1835 Assembly St. 765-5345 2120 Capitol Ave. 772-2151 the BUSINESS SITUATION CHART 1 A HE pace of U.S. production picked Several noteworthy aspects of the Real Product: up again in the third quarter. Real third quarter can be viewed in terms GNP increased at an annual rate of of developments in the farm, rest-of- Change From Preceding Quarter 3 Vfc percent, following an increase of 2 the-world, and personal sectors. Billion 1972$ percent in the second quarter (table Faced with depressed prices reflect- aROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 40 1). Inflation, as measured by the GNP ing bumper harvests and low foreign fixed-weighted price index, slowed. At demand, farmers placed large 30 an annual rate of 3 percent, down manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equip- 20 from 4 percent in the preceding quar- ment, and investment plans for the quarter; for resi- ter, inflation was at its lowest rate in dential investment, July and August construction put 10 1 in place, and July and August housing starts; for more than 10 years. change in business inventories, July and August book 0 values for manufacturing and trade, and unit auto in- 1. Quarterly estimates in the national income and ventories through September; for net exports of goods -10 product accounts are expressed at seasonally adjusted and services, July and August statistical month mer- annual rates, and quarterly changes in them are dif- chandise exports, July revised statistical month mer- ferences between these rates. Quarter-to-quarter per- chandise imports, and fragmentary information on in- -20 cent changes are annualized. Real, or constant-dollar, vestment income for the quarter; for government pur- -30 estimates are expressed in 1972 dollars. chases of goods and services, Federal unified budget The preliminary (plus 15-day) GNP estimates for the outlays for July and August, State and local construc- WGE IN BUSINESS • third quarter, prepared in mid-October, are based on tion put in place for July and August, and State and 20 'VENTORIES I the following major source data: For personal con- local employment through September; and for GJVP sumption expenditures (PCE), retail sales through Sep- prices, the Consumer Price Index for July and August, 10 tember, and unit auto and truck sales through Sep- the Producer Price Index for July and August, and tember; for nonresidential fixed investment, the same unit-value indexes for exports and imports for July 0 A, MM i information for autos and trucks as for PCE, July and and August. Some of the source data are subject to re- August construction put in place, July and August -10 M» Vehicles -20 Looking Ahead . 30 PERSONAL CONSUMmD^ SXPENOTURES • NIPA Revisions. An advance overview of the comprehensive revision 20 of the NIPA's scheduled for release in December appears in this issue. 10 See page 19 for information about the availability of the revised estimates and related materials. 0 I.lilll.i • Input-Output Estimates. Two sets of estimates—new structures and -10 equipment by using industry, and employment and employee compensa- tion—consistent with the 1977 input-output table will appear in the No- 20 vember SURVEY. FIXED JNViOTQfr • Business Statistics. The 1984 edition of this biennial volume will be 10 available soon from the Government Printing Office. It contains histori- 0 cal data and methodological notes for all series in the "S" (or blue) pages of the SURVEY and for selected BEA series. Upcoming issues of the -10 Residential SURVEY will contain order information. 20 • U.S. Direct Investment Abroad. A volume presenting the results of the Ne EXPORTS 10 Benchmark Survey of U.S. Direct Investment Abroad—1982 will be pub- lished in December. It will contain data on the financial structure and 0 1 operations of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates, on bal- -10 ance of payments transactions between parents and affiliates, and on par- ents' direct investment position in affiliates. An article summarizing the -20 20 financial and operating data is scheduled for the December SURVEY. A package of tables presenting the results of the first annual survey, cover- 10 ing 1983, will be available upon request in November. These results 0 update the financial and operating data collected in the benchmark -10 Federal survey. An article analyzing these data is scheduled for the January 1982 1983 1984 1985 SURVEY. Both sets of data provide new detail for services industries. Based on Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 85-10-1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS October 1985 Table 1.—Real GNP: Change From Preceding Table 2.—Real Gross Product, Hours, and Table 3.—Fixed-Weighted Price Indexes: Quarter Compensation in the Nonfarm Business Change From Preceding Quarter [Percent change at annual rates] Economy Less Housing: Change From Pre- [Percent change at annual rates; based on index numbers ceding Quarter (1972=100), seasonally adjusted] 1984 1985 [Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted 1984 1985 IV I II ra estimates] IV I II III GNP 4.3 0.3 1.9 3.3 1984 1985 GNP 3.6 4.3 3.9 2.9 Final sales .
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