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COR0251 Supplementary written evidence submitted by Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper and Benoit Gomis, Pandemics and Borders Project, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Canada (COR0251) WHAT ARE YOUR MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EFFECTIVE BORDER MANAGEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? 1. The UK, and other countries with rising vaccination levels, are entering a challenging period in relation to border management. Increased vaccination means lower transmission and thus pressures to relax public health measures including increased travel domestically and abroad. At the same time, the volume of circulating virus globally, new variants continue to evolve, with those more transmissible and virulent, and/or vaccine-evasive VOC moving the goalposts on herd immunity. 2. Most disruptive would be if a partial-escape variant emerges, i.e., one able to infect a significant number of fully vaccinated people and cause severe disease. A recent study modelled different scenarios in Canada for vaccine coverage and efficacy. The most damaging, by far, was a partial-escape variant. COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths were predicted to be twice as high as the next most serious scenario.1 Even with 75% full vaccination of the total population (Canada’s present target for the end of the summer), a partial-escape variant could result in a fourth wave. Even at 90% full vaccination, the study showed a partial-escape variant would be disruptive. 3. Effective management of travel-related risks will thus be critical over next 12-18 months, particularly given slow progress on achieving global equity in access to vaccines. There are risks to the gains achieved from mass vaccination.
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