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Technical Report Number 52 Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Sce~Arios Transportation Systems Analysis

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Technical Report Number 52 Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Sce~Arios Transportation Systems Analysis “? Technical Report Number 52 Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program Sponsor: Bureau of Land Management — Alaska Outer Bering-Norton Petroleum Development Sce~arios Transportation Systems Analysis The United States Department of the Interior was designated by the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lands Act of 1953 to carry out the majority of the Act’s provisions for administering the mineral leasing and develop- ment of offshore areas of the United States under federal jurisdiction. Within the Department, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has the responsibility to meet requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) as well as other legislation and regulations dealing with the effects of offshore development. In Alaska, unique cultural differences and climatic conditions create a need for developing addi- tional socioeconomic and environmental iriformation to improve OCS deci- sion making at all governmental Levels. In fulfillment of its federal responsibilities and with an awareness of these additional information needs, the BLM has initiated several investigative programs, one of which is the Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program (SESP). The Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program is a multi-year research effort which attempts to predict and evaluate the effects of Alaska OCS Petroleum Development upon the physical, social, and economic environ- ments within the state. The overall methodology i.s divided into three broad research components. The first component identifies an alterna- tive set of assumptions regarding the location, the nature, and the timing of future petroleum events and related activities. In this component, the program takes into account the particular needs of the petroleum industry and projects the human, technological, economic, and environmental offshore and onshore development requirements of the regional petroleum industry. The second component focuses on data gathering that identifies those quantifiable and qualifiable facts by which OCS-induced changes can be assessed. The critical community and regional components are identified and evaluated. Current endogenous and exogenous sources of change and functional organization among different sectors of community and region- al life are analyzed. Susceptible community relationships, values, activities, and processes also are included. The “third research component focuses- on an evaluation of the changes that could occur due to the potential oil and gas development. Impact evaluation concentrates on an analysis of the impacts at the statewide, regional, and local level. In general; program products are sequentially arranged in accordance with BLM’s proposed OCS lease sale schedule, so that information is timely to decisionmaking. Reports are available through the National ‘\ Technical Information Service, and the BLM has a limited number of copies available through the Alaska CICS Office. Inquiries for informa- tion should be directed to: Program Coordinator (COAR), Socioeconomic Studies .Program, Alaska OCS Office, P. O. Box 1159, Anchorage, Alaska 99510. * TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 52 ~ontrac~ No. aA550.~T6-61 s. fQj(+Q_ ● Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program e BERING-NORTON PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEllS ANALYSIS Prepared for Bureau of Land Management Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Office Pre?ared by Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co, and James Lindsay & ,4ssaciatss MARCH 1980 III 9 NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Office, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for its content or use thereof. Alaska OCS Soc oeconomic Studies Program Bering-Norton ?etrole~m oe~e’ opment Scenarios Transportation Systems Analysis Prepared by: Peat, Flarwick, Mitchell & Co,, and Jame; Lindsay”& Associates IV TABLE OF CONTENTS Paqe List of Tables. x List of Figures . xv 1.0 1.1 ?urpose . ,. 1 1.2 Scoge. , . 2 1.3 Content and Format Report. 5 c.O METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIE’A 2.1 Introduction . 7 2.2 SESP ‘?YOCE?SS . 8 2.3 Transportation Impacts VS. Transportation P“ arming Studies . 11 3.0 3.1 Introduction ., . .,. 3.2 Water Mode . , . ,... ,.. ..! . 20 3.2.1 Marine Terminals. .,.. 21 3.2.1.1 Port of Nome . 3.2.1.2 Port of Kotzebue .,, . 3.2.1.3 Port of Unalaska/Dutch tla~bor. 3.2.2 Marine Carriers . 73 3.2.2.1 Common and Contract Carriers . 77 3.2.2.2 Contract Lighteraging Service. 82 3.2.3 Carrier Rates. , . 8A 3.2.4 Regulations. 84 3.3 Air Mode. ,. , . 88 Page 3.3.1 Air Terminals. 89 3.3.1.1 Nome.. s.,.. .,.. 90 3.3.1.2 Kotzebue. 98 3.3.1.3 Unalakleet. ..,. 101 3.3.1.4 Anchorage International Airport . 104 3.3..2 Air Carriers . ~ 05 3.3.2.1 Air Taxi Operators. , . 109 3.3.2.2 Contract Carrier~ . 109 3.3.2.3 Scheduled Carr e rs . 109 3.3.3 Equipment., Operations . 117 3.3.4 Regulations. l~o 3.3.5 Technology . 121 4.0 BASE CASE 4.1 Introduction. 125 4.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth . 126 4.3 Water Mode . 131 4,3.1 Description of Marine Activities . 131 4.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation Demands and Requirements. 133 4,3.3 Identification of ’idari.ne Transportation Impacts. 135 4.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . , . , . 137 4.4 Air Mode. 140 4.4.1 Description of Air Activities. 140 4.4.2 Forecast of Av .ation Demands and Requirements. 142 4.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . 144 . 146 4.4.4 Aviation Issues. , . .4. 4.5 Summary ofBase Case. 147 5.0 IMPACTS OF THE EXPLORATION ONLY SCENARIO 5.1 Introduction. =. 149 5.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. 149 VI Page 5.3 Water Mode. .153 ● 5.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . ,+. 153 5.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation Demands and Requirements. 154 5.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. 162 5.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . 163 ● 5.4 Air Mode. 164 5.4.1 Ilescription of Aviation Activities . 164 5.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands and Requirements. 165 5.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . 168 0 5.4.4 Aviation Issues . 168 5.5 Summary of Exploration Only Scenario. .“ . , . 169 6.0 IMPACTS OF THE MEIIIUM FIND SCENARIO 6.1 Introduction. , . , . , . 171 6.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. 171 @ 6.3 ‘daterMode. 176 6.3.1 !3escription of Marine Activities . 176 6.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation Demands and Requirements. 178 6.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. 190 6.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . 192 6.4 Air Mode. , 193 6.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . 193 6.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Oemands and Requirements. , . 194 ● 6.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . 196 6.4.4 Aviation Issues. 199 7.0 IMPACTS OF THE LOW FINO SCENARIO ● 7.1 Introduction. , . , . , 201 7.2 Significant Factors Affecting Growth. , . , . 201 7.3 ~WaterMode. , .“, . , . , , . 207 ● ● VII Page 7.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . 207 q 7.3.2 Forecastof Marine Transportation Demands and Requirements. , 208 7.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. 219 7.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . 221 7.4 Air Mode. 223 , 7.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . 223 7.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands and Requirements. 223 7.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . 227 7.4.4 Aviation Issues. 228 8.0 IMPACTS OF THE HIGH FIND SCENARIO. 8.1 Introduction. 229 4 8.2 Significant factors Affecting Growth. 2.29 8.3 Water Node. 235 8.3.1 Description of Marine Activities . 235 8.3.2 Forecast of Marine Transportation Q Oemands and Requirements. 236 8.3.3 Identification of Marine Transportation Impacts. 247 8.3.4 Marine Transportation Issues . 250 8.4 Air Mode. 251 a 8.4.1 Description of Aviation Activities . 251 8.4.2 Forecast of Aviation Demands and Requirements. 251 8.4.3 Identification of Aviation Impacts . 255 8.4.4 Aviation Issues. 256 ● References. 258 APPENDIX A Glossary. , . A-1 ● APPENDIX B -- TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY 8.1 Introduction. , . , . B-1 * VIII Page ● B.2 OCS Demands on Transportation Generally. B-2 6.3 General Assumptions Concerning Baseline” Data . B-9 B.4 General Assumptions Concerning Forecast Data . B-9 ● B.5 Population Based (Indirect) Transportation Demands . 8-11 B.5.1 Population Based Dry Freight and Liquid Bulk. B-12 B.5.2 Population Eased Air Passengers . 8-15 8.6 OCS 8ased (Direct) Transportation Demands. B-17 ● B.6.1 OCS Industrial Freight. B-18 6.6.1.1 Inbound Drilling Supplies. , . B-18 ‘3.6.1.2 Construction Materials . B-21 6.6.1.3 Outbound Logistics . , . B-23 B.6.2 OCS Passenger Movements . B-23 6.6.2.1 Description of Terms . B-23 B.6.2.2 Helicopter Operations. 8-27 B.6.2.3 OCS Air Carrier Passenger Movements. B-28 B.6.3 OCS Consumables . , . B-33 6.6.4 OCS Oil and Gas Production. B-33 5.7 Threshold and Impact Methodology . B-34 8.7.1 Water Mode.. 3-34 B.7.1.1 Port Capacity. , . , . B-34 B.7.1.2 Vessel Routes. , . , , . B-35 B.7.2 Air Mode . , . , . 3-35 B.7.2.1 Air Passenger Thresholds . , . !3-36 B.7.2.2 Airport Facilities . , . , . B-36 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Comparison of Transportation Planning Process to the Transportation Impact Process. 13 2 Marine Facilities Inventory . , . , . , . 22 3 Climatic Conditions in the Vicinity of Nome, Alaska . 30 4 Characteristics of Bureau of Indian Affairs Ship North Star III. 33 5 Annual Commercial Vessel Activity in Nome Harbor, 1972-1977 39 6 Port of Nome Throughput Tonnage for Period 1970 to 1977 . , 41 7 Port of Nome Annual Per Capita Throughput Tonnage, 1970 to 1977. 42 8 Port of Nome - 1977 Commodity Tonnage by Origin and Destination.
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