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Copyright and Use of This Thesis This Thesis Must Be Used in Accordance with the Provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 COPYRIGHT AND USE OF THIS THESIS This thesis must be used in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Reproduction of material protected by copyright may be an infringement of copyright and copyright owners may be entitled to take legal action against persons who infringe their copyright. Section 51 (2) of the Copyright Act permits an authorized officer of a university library or archives to provide a copy (by communication or otherwise) of an unpublished thesis kept in the library or archives, to a person who satisfies the authorized officer that he or she requires the reproduction for the purposes of research or study. The Copyright Act grants the creator of a work a number of moral rights, specifically the right of attribution, the right against false attribution and the right of integrity. You may infringe the author’s moral rights if you: - fail to acknowledge the author of this thesis if you quote sections from the work - attribute this thesis to another author - subject this thesis to derogatory treatment which may prejudice the author’s reputation For further information contact the University’s Director of Copyright Services sydney.edu.au/copyright The role of ecological interactions: how intrinsic and extrinsic factors shape the spatio-temporal dynamics of populations Aaron C. Greenville A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Science The University of Sydney, Australia February 2015 Declaration of originality I hereby declare that the work contained in this thesis is my own and contains the results of an original investigation, except where otherwise referenced or acknowledged. This work was carried out while I was enrolled as a student for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Biological Sciences, The University of Sydney. This thesis has not been previously submitted for examination at this, or any other university. Aaron Greenville February 2015 Contents List of figures ......................................................................................................................... v List of tables .......................................................................................................................... ix Glossary:............................................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................ xv Thesis Abstract .................................................................................................................... xix Preface ................................................................................................................................ xxv Chapter 1: General introduction................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 2 Climate change and extreme events ................................................................................... 5 Importance of including multiple population drivers ......................................................... 6 Spatial and temporal population dynamics ......................................................................... 7 Resource pulse environments ............................................................................................. 8 Thesis conceptual model .................................................................................................... 9 Study region: the Simpson Desert, central Australia ........................................................ 12 Thesis aims ........................................................................................................................... 16 Overview of thesis ................................................................................................................ 16 References: ........................................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 2: Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature .................................................................................. 29 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 30 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 31 Materials and methods ......................................................................................................... 34 Study region ...................................................................................................................... 34 Temperature ...................................................................................................................... 35 Rainfall ............................................................................................................................. 36 Small mammals ................................................................................................................ 38 Results .................................................................................................................................. 40 Temperature ...................................................................................................................... 40 Rainfall ............................................................................................................................. 44 Extreme rainfall return intervals ....................................................................................... 48 Rainfall variability ............................................................................................................ 48 Small mammals ................................................................................................................ 50 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 52 Temperature ...................................................................................................................... 53 Rainfall ............................................................................................................................. 54 i Case study: small mammals ............................................................................................. 56 Implications of climate change ......................................................................................... 57 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. 58 References: ........................................................................................................................... 59 Chapter 3: Extreme rainfall events predict irruptions of rat plagues in central Australia ....... 65 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 66 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 67 Methods ................................................................................................................................ 69 Study region ...................................................................................................................... 69 Prediction 1: Large rainfall events drive long-haired rat irruptions ................................. 72 Prediction 2: Long-haired rats irrupt from multiple refugia ............................................. 72 Prediction 3: Colonisation of new sites will be rapid ....................................................... 74 Prediction 4: Young males arrive first at new sites .......................................................... 75 Results .................................................................................................................................. 76 Prediction 1: Large rainfall events drive long-haired rat irruptions ................................. 76 Prediction 2: Long-haired rats irrupt from multiple refugia ............................................. 79 Prediction 3: colonisation of new sites will be rapid ........................................................ 82 Prediction 4: Young males arrive first at new sites .......................................................... 83 Discussion ............................................................................................................................ 87 Prediction 1: large rainfall events drive long-haired rat irruptions .................................. 87 Prediction 2: long-haired rats irrupt from multiple refugia .............................................. 88 Prediction 3: colonisation of new sites will be rapid ........................................................ 89 Prediction 4: young males arrive first at new sites. .......................................................... 89 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. 90 References: ..........................................................................................................................
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