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Research Cover Shore Capital Macau Property Opportunities Fund Analysts: Jon Bell Gavin Jago September 2008 United Kingdom Macau Property Opportunities Fund+ N/R Property development in Macau 25th September 2008 Site visit & initiation of coverage 87p FTSE AIM All Share 681 Reuters/Bloomberg MPO.L/ MPO LN Rising in the East No. of shares - diluted (m) 105 Macau has now overtaken Las Vegas as the world’s premier gaming Mkt Cap (£m) 91 location (gaming revenues exceeded $10bn last year as the region attracted Pro forma debt (£m) 14 27 million visitors). This is creating a fertile environment for property EV (£m) 105 development as locals and investors demand higher-quality properties 1 across all classes. As an established investor and developer with a strong NAV as at 30/06/08 (p) 154 Premium to share price (%) 77 local presence and a valuable portfolio of projects, we believe MPO is well Shore Capital NPV (p)1 174 placed to generate high returns from the region’s transformation. Premium to share price (%) 100 Website www.mpofund.com Strict adherence to investment strategy. MPO has adopted a judicious approach to investment, undertaking careful due diligence prior to committing Absolute performance (%) capital. Targeting niche property opportunities often overlooked by larger 1m/3m/12m -/(14)/(25) Relative to FTSE AIM All Share (%) developers, the company is focused on the luxury and entry-level residential, 1m/3m/12m +15/+18/+13 mixed-use and industrial segments. To date, MPO has committed c$294m to projects (c156% of the company’s total equity). Management has adopted a Analysts: prudent approach to the use of financial gearing, unlike many of its peers, and Jon Bell 0207 647 8130 agreed terms at attractive rates, leveraging off its excellent banking relationships. Gavin Jago 0207 647 8121 Site visit confirms valuable portfolio. We visited Macau in August 2008 and Sales: viewed the company’s projects. Construction of the prestigious One Central Rupert Armitage 0207 647 8123 development - where the company has an agreement to acquire 84 residential Richard Arthur 0151 600 3706 units - is now well advanced and on schedule for delivery in 2009. Given the rapid William De La Warr 0207 468 7933 rise in the price of luxury apartments in the region, the initial amount paid (c$590 Andy Forshaw 0151 600 3708 per ft2) for 59 units in Tower Six looks very attractive. Including 25 units located in Stephen Henney 0151 600 3718 other parts of the complex, also with superior aspects, the company will own 12% Jane Hodgson 0151 600 3715 Malachy McEntyre 0151 600 3710 of the development’s residential floor area. Elsewhere, the company has four core John Ritchie 0151 600 3705 development projects, which are located in desirable or emerging parts of the Terry Sissons 0207 647 8165 region. Scope to generate high returns for shareholders. MPO’s shares have Email: [email protected] weakened as sentiment towards overseas property stocks has deteriorated (the 1 - Using £1 = $1.82 at 19th September 2008 shares are now c35% below their peak). Our view is that this provides investors All dollars referred to in this document are US$ unless otherwise stated with an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to Macau, the world’s most densely + Non-Independent Marketing Communication: populated region and the only part of China in which gaming is legal, where rising This is a non-independent marketing tourist revenues are stimulating both the wider economy and the local property communication. The analyst who has prepared market. Management has a proven track record of generating very high returns this report is aware that Shore Capital Stockbrokers and/or another member of the for shareholders (see page 44). We value the company at 174p per share, Shore Capital Group has a relationship with the implying material upside (c100%) to the current share price, and believe this is a company covered in this report. Accordingly, it has not been prepared in accordance with legal compelling investment opportunity for those seeking capital appreciation. requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Shore Capital Stockbrokers acts as Stockbroker to Macau Property Opportunities Fund. September 2008 continued 2 September 2008 Table of Contents Summary ......................................................................................4 Macau property market – attractions.............................................5 MPO – attractions .........................................................................5 Shore Capital’s valuation of the portfolio.......................................7 Independent valuation.................................................................18 Background to Macau .................................................................19 The Macau property market........................................................21 The residential market....................................................................................21 Case Study: One Central ...............................................................................24 The retail market ............................................................................................26 The office market ...........................................................................................27 The industrial market......................................................................................28 The hotel market ............................................................................................29 Zhuhai and the Pearl River Delta................................................30 Economic and political features ..................................................31 The gaming industry in Macau....................................................33 Sniper Capital – key individuals and track record .......................43 continued 3 September 2008 Summary MPO floated on AIM in June Macau Property Opportunities Fund (‘MPO’) is a dedicated property development 2006, raising £105m company which constructs high-specification buildings in Macau, a ‘special administrative region’ (SAR) of China, and the surrounding Pearl River Delta region. MPO floated on AIM in June 2006 and currently has a market capitalisation of c£90m. It has a June year end for reporting purposes. The company’s strategy is to take advantage of niche property opportunities which it believes have been overlooked by larger investors. Investment opportunity We believe MPO provides a compelling investment opportunity, highlighting: x Macau’s strong macroeconomic backdrop – the economy of Macau is growing at the fastest rate in Asia, buoyed by a huge rise in the number of tourists, the burgeoning gaming sector (Macau is the only region of China in which gaming is legal) and the region’s diversification into other areas of entertainment. Due to the scarcity of land and the emergence of a sizeable middle class, this is resulting in rising property prices. x Highly experienced management team with an established local presence, impressive track record (see page 44), excellent banking relationships and proven ability to transact, reposition and extract value. x Attractive portfolio of projects – MPO has established a high-quality, diversified portfolio of properties in Macau and the Pearl River Delta, which offer scope to generate material upside. x Strong balance sheet and pipeline – a cautious approach to investment leaves the company well positioned to deliver new projects at attractive prices. A pipeline containing potential investments (amounting to an equity injection of up to c$250m in aggregate) provides further scope to capitalise on the continued transformation of Macau. x Discerning acquisition strategy – since its inception, MPO has evaluated a large number of investment opportunities. A small number of these have proceeded to completion as management has adopted a prudent and highly selective approach to the deployment of its capital. x Attractive valuation – we adopt a sum-of-the-parts approach and value the company, using assumptions we believe to be conservative, at 174p per share, a c100% premium to the current share price. We believe the company is well placed to extend its current pipeline of projects, generating further value for shareholders. continued 4 September 2008 Macau property market – attractions Strong economic backdrop and property fundamentals The economy of Macau Recent data confirms that the economy of Macau continues to expand rapidly, remains buoyant, providing a enjoying the highest growth rate in Asia (see page 31). The local property market helpful backdrop to the local has also enjoyed stellar growth in recent years. Jones Lang LaSalle estimates property market that high-end residential property prices and rents rose by c12% and c7% respectively in the first quarter of 2008. Continued growth of the gaming sector… Macau has overtaken Las The popularity of Macau as a gaming location continues to grow, evidenced by Vegas as the world’s largest rising tourist numbers and revenues. Macau has now overtaken Las Vegas as the gaming market world’s pre-eminent gaming centre. …augmented by the region’s diversification into other entertainment types Macau is broadening its appeal to tourists and provides visitors with a growing number of activities and entertainment options, such as sporting events, rock concerts and theatre productions in venues including
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