Northern Michigan University NMU Commons All NMU Master's Theses Student Works 8-2018 CLIMATE DRIVEN RANGE SHIFTS OF NORTH AMERICAN SMALL MAMMALS: SPECIES’ TRAITS AND PHYLOGENETIC INFLUENCES Katie Nehiba [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.nmu.edu/theses Part of the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons Recommended Citation Nehiba, Katie, "CLIMATE DRIVEN RANGE SHIFTS OF NORTH AMERICAN SMALL MAMMALS: SPECIES’ TRAITS AND PHYLOGENETIC INFLUENCES" (2018). All NMU Master's Theses. 557. https://commons.nmu.edu/theses/557 This Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Works at NMU Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in All NMU Master's Theses by an authorized administrator of NMU Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. CLIMATE DRIVEN RANGE SHIFTS OF NORTH AMERICAN SMALL MAMMALS: SPECIES’ TRAITS AND PHYLOGENETIC INFLUENCES By Katie R. Nehiba THESIS Submitted to Northern Michigan University In partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Office of Graduate Education and Research July 2018 ABSTRACT By Katie R. Nehiba Current anthropogenically-driven climate change is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. In response, species’ ranges may shift, tracking optimal climatic conditions. Species-specific differences may produce predictable differences in the extent of range shifts. I evaluated if patterns of predicted responses to climate change were strongly related to species’ taxonomic identities and/or ecological characteristics of species’ niches, elevation and precipitation. I evaluated differences in predicted range shifts in well-sampled small mammals that are restricted to North America: kangaroo rats, voles, chipmunks, and ground squirrels. I used species distribution modeling to develop predictions for the distributions of species under current and future climate scenarios, and quantified the differences. AIC analysis was used to compare alternative models. Elevation held the most explanatory power to predict how species may respond to climate change, while clade identity was not a good predictor. However, a refined perspective based on phylogenetic relatedness provided some evidence of a relationship between evolutionary history and the biological factors that underlie species responses to climate change. I hypothesized that species responses to climate change reflect underlying ecological characteristics that are evolutionarily conserved. The small mammal groups showed varying levels of phylogenetic signal within different parameters. The strongest support was in the parameter representing the southern boundary, where the most warming is likely to be occurring. This may create a strong physiological constraint for species to stay within optimal climatic conditions. i Copyright by KATIE R. NEHIBA 2018 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Firstly, I sincerely thank my advisor Dr. Kurt Galbreath, for the help and guidance he has provided throughout my undergraduate and graduate career. Thank you for accepting me into your lab and working with me, even though my interests stray from the typical research in the lab. Thank you for always making time for me when I needed help. This would not have been possible without your knowledge and insight. You have always challenged me to do my best and asked tough questions, and I know that I have become a better scientist and stronger individual because of that; I will be forever grateful. I would like to express my gratitude to my committee members, Dr. John Bruggink and Dr. Alec Lindsay. Dr. Lindsay, your expertise in evolutionary biology, questioning of big picture thinking, and expression of climate change have helped me greatly. Dr. Bruggink, your expertise in statistics and mammal life histories, and excellent editing skills are greatly appreciated. Thank you to Dr. Rebertus, who provided assistance with statistical analysis. I also thank my fellow biology graduate students. My lab mates, Niyomi House and Sarah Gallagher, thank you for being there when I had questions about the lab or life in general. To my officemates, Niyomi, Ada Acevedo, and Emily Johnson, I appreciate all of the conversations we had about science and life. I was able to learn all about Sri Lanka, Colombia, and Alabama just by sitting at my desk. Finally, thank you to my parents, Cindy and Steve, sister, Lindsey, and boyfriend, Cody. Thank you all for believing in me and always being so positive. You have been my support system through graduate school and I cannot thank you enough. This thesis follows the format prescribed by the Journal of Mammalogy and the NMU Office of Graduate Education and Research. Financial support was provided by the Excellence in Education Award. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables………………………………………………………………………….(viii) List of Figures………………………………………………………………………….(ix) Chapter 1: Species’ traits and climate driven range shifts of North American small mammals Introduction………………………………………………………………….…….1 Methods……………………………………………………………………....……4 Results……………………………………………………………………...….....17 Discussion…………………………………………………………………..........36 Conclusions……………………………………………………………....…........44 Literature Cited ………………………………………………….……………....45 Appendix A……………………………………………………….……………...49 Chapter 2: Phylogenetic influence on climate driven range shifts in North American small mammals Introduction……………………………………………………………………..94 Methods…………………………………………………………………………97 Results…………………………………………………………………………112 Discussion……………………………………………………………………..123 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………132 Literature Cited ……………………………………………………………….133 Appendix B………………..…………………………………………………..138 iv LIST OF TABLES Chapter 1 Table 1.1…………………………………………………………………14 Table 1.2…………………………………………………………………20 Table 1.3…………………………………………………………………21 Table 1.4……………………………………………………………....…25 Table 1.5…………………………………………………...........……….28 Table 1.6…………………………………………………………..……..31 Chapter 2 Table 2.1…………………………………………………………..……106 Table 2.2………………………………………………………………..122 Supplementary Table 2.1……………………………....……………….138 v LIST OF FIGURES Chapter 1 Figure 1.1………………………………………………………………...22 Figure 1.2………………………………………………………………...23 Figure 1.3………………………………………………………….……..24 Figure 1.4………………………………………………………..……….26 Figure 1.5……………………………………………………..………….27 Figure 1.6…………………………………………………..…………….29 Figure 1.7…………………………………………………...……………30 Figure 1.8……………………………………………….………………..32 Figure 1.9……………………………………………….………………..33 Figure 1.10……………………………………………………………….34 Figure 1.11……………………………………………………………….35 Supplementary Figure 1.1……………………….……………………….49 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1…………………………………………...…………………..114 Figure 2.2……………………………………………………………….115 Figure 2.3……………………………………………………………….116 Figure 2.4…………………………………………….…………………117 Figure 2.5………………………………………….……………………118 Figure 2.6……………………………………….………………………119 Figure 2.7…………………………………………...…………………..120 Figure 2.8……………………………………………………….………121 vi Chapter 1: Species’ traits and climate driven range shifts of North American small mammals Introduction Though climate fluctuates through time as a consequence of natural forces, current anthropogenically-driven climate change is accelerating at an unprecedented rate (Leach et al. 2015), which can cause species to respond in different ways. There is concern that the pace at which current changes are occurring poses new challenges for many species (Thuiller et al. 2011). Species’ responses to climate change can be very diverse, including changes in physiology, biological interactions, and geographical distributions (Pachauri et al. 2014). It is generally agreed that climatic conditions and changes influence species' distributions, as they affect species-specific physiological thresholds of temperature and precipitation tolerance (Walther et al. 2002). Ongoing climate change is causing many species’ ranges to shift in geographic location to remain within the preferred bioclimatic envelope (Chen et al. 2011; La Sorte and Jetz 2012; Comte et al. 2014). There is no doubt that climate plays a major role in limiting terrestrial species’ ranges (Parmesan 2006). A warming climate is expected to increase climate stress at range boundaries nearest the equator and reduce it at poleward boundaries. Therefore, expected distributional shifts in organisms in warming regions are generally predicted to be poleward and upward in elevation (Walther et al. 2002; Hickling et al. 2006; Parmesan 2006; Chen et al. 2011), to the extent that dispersal and resource availability allow. Poleward range shifts have been 1 documented for individual species on all continents and in most of the major oceans for all well-studied plant and animal groups (Parmesan 2006). A shifting range can result from extirpations of populations as local environmental conditions shift beyond the species’ ability to persist, along with colonization and growth of local populations into regions that newly came within the species’ environmental tolerances (Opdam and Wascher 2004). The decline in populations in most species is not caused by climate directly, but by failure to compete successfully for resources because of changes in the environment (Opdam and Wascher 2004). The ability of an individual to avoid or resist natural enemies or compete with other species can be affected by climate (Thomas 2010). Therefore, climate may affect range boundaries indirectly through changes in species’ interactions and through climate-driven changes in the physical structure of habitats (e.g., habitat fragmentation). Habitat fragmentation occurs in landscape areas