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Crisiswatch, Nr. 50 1 October 2007, N°50 Board of Trustees Co-Chairs CrisisWatch: Christopher Patten summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or potential Thomas Pickering conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information President and CEO sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Gareth Evans assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; Executive Committee alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly Morton Abramowitz escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may Cheryl Carolus in fact be both); and Maria Livanos Cattaui* summarises Crisis Group’s reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. Yoichi Funabashi Frank Giustra CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including Stephen Solarz the resources of some 130 staff members across five continents, who already report on nearly 60 of the George Soros situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. Pär Stenbäck To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and resources page at www.crisisgroup.org. *Vice-Chair Adnan Abu-Odeh Kenneth Adelman September 2007 Trends Ersin Arioglu Shlomo Ben-Ami Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations Lakhdar Brahimi Zbigniew Brzezinski Algeria (p.11) Myanmar/Burma (p.7) Chad (p.2) Kim Campbell Burundi (p.2) Nepal (p.6) Liberia (p.4) Naresh Chandra DR Congo (p.2) North Caucasus Sierra Leone (p.5) Joaquim Alberto Chissano Ethiopia/Eritrea (p.3) (non-Chechnya) (p.8) Fiji (p.7) Somaliland (Somalia) (p.3) Victor Chu Lebanon (p.11) Sudan (p.3) Wesley Clark Pat Cox Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Unchanged Situations Mark Eyskens Afghanistan (p.5), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bangladesh (p.6), Basque Country (Spain) Joschka Fischer (p.9), Belarus (p.9), Bolivia (p.10), Bosnia & Herzegovina (p.7), Central African Republic (p.2), Leslie H. Gelb Chechnya (Russia) (p.8), Colombia (p.10), Comoros Islands (p.4), Côte d’Ivoire (p.4), Cyprus Carla Hills (p.9), Ecuador (p.10), Egypt (p.12), Ethiopia (p.3), Georgia (p.9), Guinea (p.4), Guatemala (p.10), Lena Hjelm-Wallén Haiti (p.10), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.7), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Israel/Occupied Swanee Hunt Territories (p.10), Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.5), Kosovo (p.8), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Macedonia Anwar Ibrahim (p.8), Maldives (p.6), Mali (p.4), Morocco (p.12), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.9), Niger Asma Jahangir (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), Northern Ireland (UK) (p.9), North Korea (p.6), Pakistan (p.6), Philippines Nancy Kassebaum Baker (p.7), Republic of Congo (p.2), Rwanda (p.2), Serbia (p.8), Somalia (p.3), Sri Lanka (p.6), Syria James V. Kimsey (p.11), Taiwan Strait (p.7), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Turkey (p.10), Turkmenistan (p.5), Uganda (p.2), Ukraine (p.9), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Western Sahara (p.12), Yemen Wim Kok (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.4) Ricardo Lagos Joanne Leedom-Ackerman Ayo Obe October 2007 Watchlist Christine Ockrent Victor Pinchuk Conflict Risk Alerts Conflict Resolution Samantha Power Opportunities Fidel V. Ramos Ghassan Salamé Sudan Douglas Schoen Thorvald Stoltenberg Ernesto Zedillo Crisis Group Chairmen Emeritus Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 130 staff members on five continents, working Martti Ahtisaari through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in George J. Mitchell field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high level advocacy. Crisis Group is co- chaired by former European Commissioner for External Relations Lord Patten of Barnes and former U.S. Ambassador and Boeing Vice President, International Relations, Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°128, Congo: Consolidating the Peace, 5 July 2007. Republic of Congo Government forces and ex-Ninja rebels clashed when leader Frederic Bitsangou, due to begin role in charge of promotion of peace and post-conflict CENTRAL AFRICA reconstruction, failed to appear in Brazzaville to fill post 10 September. Negotiations between Bitsangou and government Burundi Insecurity increased as rebel group Palipehutu-FNL continued despite unconfirmed reports of fatalities in clash. refused to resume dialogue with government and internal FNL “Despite gunbattle, Republic of Congo wants ex-rebel fighting killed 22. Group accused South African mediator leader to take up ministerial post”, AP, 11 Sept. 2007. Charles Nqakula of pro-government bias 9 September and “Ninja return ends in Congo chaos”, BBC, 11 Sept. 2007. boycotted 16 September Dar es Salaam talks. FNL also clamped down on “deserters” in Bujumbura 2, 4 September Rwanda UN accused Kigali of arming rebel faction under and in Bubanza province 25 September: rebels allied with Gen. Laurent Nkunda in neighbouring DRC. Government leader Agathon Rwasa battled factions opposed to July denied accusations, but President Kagame said Nkunda had withdrawal from ceasefire agreement. UN Peacebuilding “legitimate” grievances. FM Charles Murigande expressed Commission urged FNL to resume talks in 19 September Rwandan willingness to fight FDLR rebels in DRC; said any report. AU set 31 December deadline for ceasefire action would take place with Congolese agreement. Rwandan, implementation. French FMs met in New York 24 September: first since 2006. “Burundi: ministerial cabinet amends disarmament “Thaw in Franco-Rwandan relations”, BBC, 24 Sept. 2007. project”, Burundi Réalités, 24 Sept. 2007. “Rwanda blames DR Congo for violence”, Al Jazeera, 20 “BURUNDI: Rebel activity displaces hundreds in Sept. 2007. Bubanza”, IRIN, 10 Sept. 2007. “Rwanda in thinly veiled threat to send troops back into For background, see Crisis Group Africa Report N°131, Congo”, Guardian, 17 Sept. 2007. Burundi: Finalising Peace with the FNL, 28 Aug. 2007. Uganda Juba talks between government and Lord’s UN Security Council approved Central African Republic Resistance Army (LRA) still on hold after July recess. LRA UN/EU force to provide security for refugees in CAR/Chad presumed hiding in north east DRC. Presidents of Uganda, border areas 25 September. 300 UN police (MINURCAT) in DRC signed 8 September agreement guaranteeing Chad to be supported by up to 4,000 mainly French EU troops: cooperation to eradicate “negative forces”, including LRA, by not more than 200 in north east CAR (see Chad). Government January 2008. LRA leaders denounced accord 12 September; forces killed 9 gunmen near Chadian border 14 September in threatened any attack would be “declaration of war”. Uganda operation targeting banditry. Human Rights Watch said LRA should no longer be in DRC territory under ceasefire condemned atrocities by military since beginning of conflict in agreement; LRA second-in-command Vincent Otti said fighters 2005, with specific mention of President François Bozize’s were in southern Sudan. MONUC announced willingness to personal guard. aide any action to remove armed groups from east DRC 16 “France takes the lead on new UN-EU peacekeeping September. Lake Albert clashes between DRC, Ugandan mission”, IRIN, 26 Sept. 2007. troops killed 6, 24 September (see DRC). “Central Africa army kills 9 gunmen after attack”, Reuters, “Uganda: UN to help flush out LRA rebels”, New Vision, 16 14 Sept. 2007. Sept. 2007. “Tens of thousands uprooted by violence in northern “Uganda says LRA rebels should have quit Congo”, Central African Republic”, UN News, 14 Sept. 2007. Reuters, 13 Sept. 2007. Democratic Republic of Congo Fighting escalated Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°46, in North Kivu between insurgents under Gen. Laurent Northern Uganda Peace Process: The Nkunda and government troops with support from Mai Mai Need to Maintain Momentum, 14 September 2007. The militia and FDLR elements. Government used helicopter international community must increase leverage to advance gunship 4 September “killing 80”; MONUC airlifted government the Juba peace process. If a final deal is to be concluded by troops to conflict zone. Truce called 6 September following year’s end, more pressure is necessary to create incentives MONUC mediation; broken 24 September: President Joseph for progress and disincentives for undermining a negotiated Kabila gave Nkunda troops 21-day ultimatum 21 September to settlement. A two-track strategy is needed: negotiating away disarm and accept integration without negotiation or the LRA security threat and dealing with long-term exceptions. 15-17 September meeting of Tripartite Plus Joint redevelopment in northern Uganda. Commission called for increased MONUC mandate against “negative elements” in east. MONUC report accused government forces of human rights abuses, denounced culture HORN OF
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