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Nintendo (7974) 15 September 2017 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Entertainment Software (Video Game (Japan)) Nintendo (7974) Rating (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM [V] Price (14 Sep 17, ¥) 37,670 UPGRADE RATING Target price (¥) (from 40,000) 55,000 Change to TP (%) 46 Market cap (¥ bn) 4,523 (US$ 40.9) Upgrading to OUTPERFORM: Multi-Switch Enterprise value (¥ bn) 3,776 Number of shares (mn) 120.1 homes to drive high earnings peak Free float (%) 70.0 52-week price range 39,320–22,520 ■ Action: We raise our forecasts and lift our target price for Nintendo from Target price is for 12 months. ¥40,000 to ¥55,000 (potential return 46%). We also upgrade Nintendo from [V] = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix) Neutral to OUTPERFORM. We now forecast Switch sales of 130mn Research Analysts (previously 70mn) units through FY3/22. Keiichi Yoneshima 81 3 4550 9740 ■ Including multi-Switch households into demand outlook: We had [email protected] previously expected the Switch to sell like a traditional console, but now Hanako Takahashi expect it to sell more like a handheld, due to three main reasons: (1) a 81 3 4550 7366 [email protected] Famitsu survey released in June indicating that many users are already using the Switch like a handheld (see Figure 1), (2) the comparatively low price, and (3) prospects for a long-tail sales cycle driven by minor changes. We now forecast Switch sales peaking at 31mn units in FY3/20–21 (previously 15mn in FY3/19). ■ Catalysts/risks: Potential upside catalysts include a 2Q earnings report accompanied by upwardly revised guidance and unveiling of a major third- party software title at the Tokyo Game Show (21–24 September). Downside risks include disappointing Switch sales and yen appreciation. ■ Valuation: We set our ¥55,000 target price using a the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method, using game consoles, smart devices, and cash. We value the game hardware business at an ex-cash P/E of 18x (previously 20x) to reflect that we now expect Switch sales to peak in FY3/20–21 instead of FY3/19. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Pr ice (LH S) Reb ased Rel (RH S) Year 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E Sales (¥ bn) 489.1 831.4 1,196.4 1,599.1 4 0 ,0 0 0 Operating profit (¥ bn) 29.4 80.4 258.1 470.1 3 0 ,0 0 0 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 50.4 106.3 284.0 496.0 Net income (¥ bn) 102.6 69.1 184.6 322.4 2 0 ,0 0 0 EPS (¥) 853.9 575.1 1,536.5 2,683.6 IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 856.0 1,409.0 1,877.9 1 0 ,0 0 0 EPS growth (%) 521.4 (32.6) 167.2 74.7 Jan - 1 6 Ju l- 1 6 Jan - 1 7 Ju l- 1 7 P/E (x) 30.3 65.5 24.5 14.0 The price relative chart measures performance against the Dividend yield (%) 1.7 0.8 2.0 3.6 TOPIX which closed at 1,632.13 on 14-Sep-2017 EV/EBITDA (x) 65.6 42.6 13.9 7.4 On 14-Sep-2017 the spot exchange rate was P/B (x) 2.9 4.1 3.9 3.5 ¥110.46/US$1 ROE(%) 8.5 5.4 13.8 22.0 Performance 1M 3M 12M Net debt/equity (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Absolute (%) 2.8 4.5 46.3 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Relative (%) 1.8 2.3 22.1 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 15 September 2017 Nintendo (7974) Price (14 Sep 2017): ¥37,670 (upside: 46%); Rating: (from NEUTRAL) OUTPERFORM [V]; Target Price: (from ¥40,000) ¥55,000; Analyst: Keiichi Yoneshima Income statement (¥ bn) 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E Key ratios 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E Sales 489.1 831.4 1,196.4 1,599.1 Growth (%) EBITDA 37.7 88.8 266.5 478.5 Sales (3.0) 70.0 43.9 33.7 Operating profit 29.4 80.4 258.1 470.1 Operating profit (10.7) 173.8 221.0 82.1 Recurring profit 50.4 106.3 284.0 496.0 EPS 521.4 (32.6) 167.2 74.7 Extraordinary gain & loss 64.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Margins (%) Profit before tax 114.7 106.3 284.0 496.0 Gross margin 40.7 39.0 41.9 44.6 Net income 102.6 69.1 184.6 322.4 EBITDA margin 7.7 10.7 22.3 29.9 Cash flow (¥ bn) 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E OP margin 6.0 9.7 21.6 29.4 Operating cash flow 19.1 121.9 186.0 320.3 DuPont analysis Depreciation & Amortization 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 ROE (%) 8.5 5.4 13.8 22.0 Investing cash flow 69.5 24.6 (15.2) (15.2) Net profit margin (%) 21.0 8.3 15.4 20.2 Capex (9.9) (15.2) (15.2) (15.2) Sales/Assets 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 Free cash flow 88.6 146.5 170.8 305.1 Assets/Equity 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Financing cash flow (14.4) (29.1) (92.3) (161.2) Credit ratios (%) Issuance (retirement) of stock (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Equity ratio 85.2 79.5 77.6 76.8 Dividends paid (14.4) (34.5) (92.3) (161.2) Net D/E ratio Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net change in cash 74.2 117.4 78.5 143.9 Per share data (¥) Number of shares (mn) 120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 Balance sheet (¥ bn) 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E EPS 853.9 575.1 1536.5 2683.6 Cash & cash equivalents 662.8 780.1 858.6 1,002.5 BPS 8829.3 9111.5 9763.0 10900.8 Current receivable 106.1 91.1 131.1 175.2 DPS 430.0 287.6 768.2 1341.8 Inventories 39.1 83.4 114.2 145.6 Dividend payout ratio (%) 50.4 50.0 50.0 50.0 Other current assets 332.8 330.4 330.4 330.4 Current assets 1,140.7 1,285.0 1,434.3 1,653.7 Valuation (x) 3/17A 3/18E 3/19E 3/20E Property, plant & equipment 128.7 138.4 148.1 157.8 P/E 30.3 65.5 24.5 14.0 Investments - - - - P/B 2.9 4.1 3.9 3.5 Intangibles 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 EV/EBITDA 65.6 42.6 13.9 7.4 Other non-current assets 186.7 186.8 186.8 186.8 Dividend yield (%) 1.7 0.8 2.0 3.6 Total assets 1,469.0 1,623.0 1,782.0 2,011.1 FCF yield (%) 0.3 2.4 3.8 6.7 Payables 104.2 180.8 247.5 315.4 Short term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other current liabilities 79.9 117.4 117.4 117.4 Current liabilities 184.1 298.1 364.8 432.7 Long term debt 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 Other non-current liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total liabilities 218.0 332.0 398.7 466.6 Shareholders' equity 1,250.8 1,290.8 1,383.1 1,544.3 Minority interests 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Nintendo (7974)2 15 September 2017 Table of contents Upgrading to OUTPERFORM: Multi-Switch homes to drive high earnings peak 1 Executive summary 4 Upgrading to OUTPERFORM with ¥55,000 TP .......................................................4 Three reasons why Switch will be more like a handheld..........................................4 Valuation ..................................................................................................................7 Upgrading to OUTPERFORM, raising TP to ¥55,000 9 Forecasting Switch sales through FY3/22 at 130mn units, revised from 70mn .......9 Incorporating multi-Switch households into our sales forecast ................................9 Game hardware is relatively inexpensive per CPI data .........................................12 Switch poised for similar uptake as the DS series 14 3DS+NDS constitute a broader “DS series”...........................................................14 Revising attach rate outlook...................................................................................17 Expecting production capacity to rise to 2.5mn units/month; peak FY capacity of 30mn units within reach .........................................................................................18 Prospects for long-tail sales driven by minor changes 19 Switch color variations suggests scope for device personalization........................19 Previous minor changes.........................................................................................21 Minor changes in handheld and stationary consoles differ by an order of magnitude ...............................................................................................................................22 Near-term catalyst: upward revision at 2Q (Jul–Sep) results 23 Profits concentrated in Oct–Dec; expecting lift to full-year guidance if 1H progress is around 50% ........................................................................................................23 Forecasts for non-Switch products 25 2DS likely to become the core handheld................................................................25 Modest revision to smartphone app forecasts .......................................................25 Valuation: raising value of game console business from ¥2.7tn to ¥4.7tn 26 Focusing on the Switch; smartphone apps also look promising in the long term...26 Earnings forecasts 30 Revising Switch earnings peak from FY3/19 to FY3/20–21; raising peak sales ‒ 15mn to 31mn units................................................................................................30 Nintendo (7974)3 15 September 2017 Executive summary Upgrading to OUTPERFORM with ¥55,000 TP Changes from our previous report: Now reflecting realization of upside scenario ■ 1) We raise our earnings forecasts after lifting our cumulative sales forecast for the Switch through FY3/22 from 70mn units to 130mn units.
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