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Developing a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Island Regions

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Developing a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Island Regions. The case of South Aegean Region in Greece.

Apostolos P. Siskos1, Dimitrios Voloudakis1, Dimitrios Lalas1, Nikolaos Gakis1, Grigorios Andronikos2, Dionysios Gkoutis1, Maria Strataki1

1Envirometrics Technical Consultants and Engineers Ltd, 20 Karea str. Athens, 11636, Greece 2South Aegean Region's Managing Authority, 22 Saki Karagiorga str., Ermoupolis, Syros, 841 00, Greece

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, region, island, South Aegean Presenting author email: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
The overall purpose of the Regional Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (RAPCC) of the South Aegean
Region (SAR) is to contribute to enhancing the region's resilience to climate change in all sectoral policies as outlined in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. This means increasing preparedness and capacity to address the impacts of climate change at local and regional level, developing a coherent approach and improving coordination.
The methodology used to assess the climatic vulnerability of the individual sectors and geographical areas of the SAR and ultimately the climate risk assessment comprised nine solid steps beginning from defining “reference" changes of climatic variables to assess the vulnerability of the different activities and ending with ranking sectors and activities as to the magnitude of the risk. The analysis of the climatic vulnerability and danger and hence risk of the different sectors and activities of the South Aegean Region was carried out for the short and medium term (2021-2050) and long-term horizons (2071-2100) and distinct for the geographical units of Cyclades and Dodecanese.
According to these findings the proposed measures in the RAPCC were based on island specific characteristics such as financial-social activities, geomorphology and developed both in horizontal and sectoral actions and classified into High, Medium and Low priority.

INTRODUCTION
The Regional Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (RAPCC) of the South Aegean Region (SAR) is compiled in the framework of the obligations and specifications deriving from the relevant national legislation (L.41414 / 2016 and MD 11258/2017). The South Aegean Region is a border region at national and European level. Its main characteristic is its wholly islandic environment as it consists of two large island groups, the Cyclades and the Dodecanese. Its geographic position in the southeast basin of the Mediterranean places it according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6 in those areas characterized as vulnerable to climate change.
The Region's economy relies heavily on the tertiary sector and particularly on the services sector. According to Eurostat 5, the Region of South Aegean is the first at national and pan-European level in the statistical index "overnight stays in hotel accommodation relative to the size of the population (per 1000 inhabitants)" approaching 69.777. Moreover, much of the Region, both the Cyclades and the Dodecanese, has been recognized by the scientific community as ecologically important. This is a total of 31 sites proposed for inclusion in the NATURA 2000 network 8, 39 Corine Habitats as a whole, and a significant number of wetlands recorded at the Greek wetland sites of the Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre.

Fig.1: Map of the South Aegean Region
The project aims to record short-, medium- and long-term assessments of climate change in the South
Aegean Region, to assess the immediate and future environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change

1

on fifteen economic sectors of the Region and to evaluate (both environmentally and socio-economically) the possible adaptation actions in these areas. The fifteen sectors for which Sectoral Adaptation Policies have been developed in the scope of the RAPCC are (1) Agriculture and livestock farming, (2) Forests, (3) Biodiversity and ecosystems, (4) Fisheries, (5) Aquaculture, (6) Water resources, (7) Coastal zones, (8) Tourism, (9) Energy, (10) Infrastructure and Transport, (11) Health, (12). Built environment, (13) Extractive industry, (14) Cultural heritage and (15) Insurance sector.
The proposed adaptation measures pillars and policy priorities of the RAPCC were connected to the objectives of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 10 according to the following table.

Table 1: Correlating the Pillars-Policy Priorities RPACC of SAR with National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Objectives

Pillars‐ Policy Priorities RAPCC
Leadership and Enhancement of Administrative
Capacity
Promote and diffuse knowledge & skills
Strengthening Resilience in Priority Areas
National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Objectives

Systematization and improvement of the decision‐making process (short and long‐term)




Connecting adaptation with promoting a sustainable development model through regional / local action plans



Promoting actions and adjustment policies in all sectors of the economy, focusing on the most vulnerable



Establishment of a mechanism for monitoring, evaluating and updating adaptation actions and policies



Strengthening the adaptive capacity of Greek society through information and awareness actions

MATERIALS AND METHODS
The South Aegean Region is divided into two distinct climatic regions, those of Cyclades (CY) and
Dodecanese (D) 1. Climate change assessment, analysis of its impact on various sectors as well as vulnerability analysis of the South Aegean Region require climate data with the greatest possible spatial and temporal analysis. The data used cover a period of 30 years for the current climate (1961-1990) and two 30-year periods for the future climate (2021-2050 mid-term and 2071-2100 long term) as the analysis in the CCISC and are the results of the application of the regional climatic model RACMO2.2 of KNMI with a 0.11o special resolution, in conjunction with the global climatic model EC-EARTH based under the RCP4.5 (GHG stabilization) and RCP8.5 (GHG growth) scenarios in the scope of the EURO-CORDEX project 7.
Climatic parameters accessed were mean daily values of (1) air temperature, (2) relative humidity, (3) cloud cover fraction, (4) sunshine duration, (5) wind speed, (6) precipitation. In addition, to estimate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the following climatic indicators were also accessed:
 changes of average minimum and maximum temperatures  number days per year with a maximum daily temperature > 35oC (heat waves)  number of days of discomfort (computed with HUMIDEX Index)  number days per year with a minimum temperature < 0oC (night frost)  maximum hourly precipitation per year  number of days with increased risk of forest fires computed with the FWI-Forest Weather Index-
System12.

The methodology used to assess the climatic vulnerability of the individual sectors and geographical areas of the South Aegean Region and ultimately the climate risk assessment was similar to other notable relevant studies 11 and EU recommendations 2 and comprised the following steps:
1. Definition of “reference” changes of climatic variables to assess the vulnerability of the different activities in light of the maximum expected variations from the results of the scenarios.
2. Identification of business processes and operational parameters per activity affected by the change in the climatic parameters
3. Definition of a scale of impacts based on the operational parameters per activity. 4. Vulnerability per activity in the event of the “reference” climate parameter changes. 5. Estimation of potential vulnerability reduction due to the possibility of adaptation.

2
6. Estimation of the magnitude of expected changes per time period (2 periods, 2021-2050 and 2010-2100) and per scenario (2 scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)
7. Assessment of the danger of the climatic changes from the model estimates in relation to the respective
“reference” ones
8. Risk assessment by sector and activity by combining vulnerability and danger. 9. Ranking sectors and activities as to the magnitude of the risk

Fig.2: Summary presentation of the climate hazard assessment methodology for the South Aegean Region

The first step (I) of the methodology, as shown in the figure above, was the definition of the “reference” climate change to assess the climatic vulnerability of a sector or activity. As a “benchmark” climate change, extreme values were selected from the overview of published estimates for the Mediterranean region as well as the results of climate simulations for all periods and scenarios.

Table 2: Benchmark climate parameters values for the definition of the reference climate change

Parameters (difference from today’s conditions)
Maximum Value
Unit
Definition of change for the climate parameters

Temperature

Mean

  • Small
  • Medium
  • High
  • Extreme

ΔoC ΔoC
48

Μean Maximum

0.5 < Δ <1
1 < Δ <2 Δ < 250
< 10
1 < Δ < 2 2 < Δ < 4
2 < Δ < 4 4 < Δ < 6
Δ > 4 Δ > 6

DegreeDays net (Heating – Cooling)

Δ Growing

  • DegreeDays.
  • 1000

50

Forest Weather Index (FWI)

Δ FWI Δ TCI
250 < Δ < 500
10 < Δ < 20
500 < Δ < 750
20 < Δ < 30
Δ > 750 Δ > 30

Tourist Climate Index (TCI) months with high demand

20
Drought

Mean Annual Precipitation Days with precipitation <1mm

Wind

  • Δ %
  • 25

40

  • 3 < Δ < 5
  • 5< Δ < 10
  • 10 < Δ < 15

20 < Δ < 30
Δ > 15

  • Δ > 30
  • Δ days
  • 3 < Δ < 10
  • 10 < Δ < 20

Mean Speed

  • Δ m/s
  • 3
  • < 0.5
  • 0.5 < Δ < 1.0

10 < Δ < 20
1.0 < Δ < 1.5 20 < Δ < 30
Δ > 1.5 Δ > 30

Days with maximum wind speed >10.8m/s

5 < Δ < 10

  • Δ days
  • 40

Heat waves

Days with maximum T >35οC Days with Humidex > 38

Cold invasions and Frost

Days with minimumΤ < 0 οC

Rainfall and Snowfall

Two days height of precipitation Decrease of snowfall height

Increase of sea level

Sea Level

Δ days Δ days
30 40
3 < Δ < 10 5 < Δ < 10
10 < Δ < 15 10 < Δ < 20
15 < Δ < 20 20 < Δ < 30
Δ > 20 Δ > 30

  • Δ days
  • 60
  • Δ < 10
  • 10 < Δ < 30
  • 30 < Δ < 50
  • Δ > 50

Δ% Δ%
40 40

  • Δ < 10
  • 10 < Δ < 20

10 < Δ < 20
20 < Δ < 30 20 < Δ < 30
Δ > 30

  • Δ > 30
  • 5 < Δ < 10

Δmm Δ %
100 50
20 < Δ < 35 10 < Δ < 20
35 < Δ < 50 20 < Δ < 30
50 < Δ < 100 30 < Δ < 50
Δ > 100 Δ > 50
Surges

Increase of maximum height

3
For the assessment of vulnerability, as shown in Fig. 2, the second step (II) was to identify the processes and functional parameters of the sectors and activities affected by the change in climatic parameters and the effects of climate change (Table 3).

Table 3: Impacts on activities occurring in the South Aegean Region affected by changes in climatic parameters and basic operational parameters based on changes in which the magnitude of the impact is estimated.

Impacts of Changes in Climatic Parameters Activity (by NACE Classification) Primary Sector (Α, Β)

  • Main Impact
  • Operative Parameter
  • Units

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (A)

Fisheries, Aquaculture (Α) Forestry (Α)

  • Production
  • Yearly Production

Yearly Production % area in danger Yearly Production

%%%%

Fish stock Fires/Diseases
Mining and Quarrying (Β)

Manufacturing €

Water and power availability

  • Facilities/ Working conditions
  • Yearly Revenues

Electricity, Gas, Steam & A/C Supply (D)

Thermal Power Units Wind
Power/Production efficiency Capacity factor
Yearly Production Yearly Production Yearly Production Yearly Production Consumption

%%%%%

  • Hydro Power
  • Water supply

  • Photovoltaics
  • Capacity factor

  • Energy Demand
  • Heating/Cooling/Losse

Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities (Ε)

  • Irrigation
  • Irrigation resources

Drinking water resources Flooding
Water resources Water resources Serice interuption

%%%

Water Supply Sewage & Waste Management

Transport and Storage (Η)

  • Road Transport
  • Flooding/Damage/Deterioration

Flooding/Damage
% km under risk

%%%%

  • Rail
  • % km under risk

  • Aviation
  • Lifting reduction / Deterioration

Docks/ Wave height
People/Goods activity

  • People/Goods activity
  • Ports

Built Environment (E, F, L, Q, R)

  • Construction (F)
  • Structure Deterioration/Flooding

Discomfort
Repair costs per building Humidex > 37 increase Restoration value

%

Historic City Centers €

%

Cultural Heritage Sites & Buildings ® Hospitals, Health Service Facilities (Q) Sewage & Waste Management €

Accommodation and Food Service Activities (I)

Winter and Ski Resorts
Structure Deterioration/Flooding Facility deterioration/Flooding Flooding/Fires

mil€ %

Operational ability reduction Numbers

Ν

  • Snow fall
  • Snowfall amount

%%

  • Summer Tourism
  • Attractiveness
  • Reduction of visits

Tertiary Sector (G, Κ, Μ, Ν, Ο, P, R, S)

Financial & Insurance Activities (Κ) Professional, Scientific & Techical Activities (Μ) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation ® Wholesale & Retail Trade (G) Other Service Activities (S) Education (P)

  • Damages
  • Yearly Revenues

Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Operating days reduction Services

%%%%%%%%

Working Conditions Working Conditions Working Conditions Working Conditions Operating Conditions Work load/working conditions Work load/working conditions
Administrative & Support Service Activies (N) Public Administration and Defence (O)

Human Health and Social Work Activities (Q)

Population/Vulnerable Groups Population
Services

  • Health Effects
  • Morbitidy/100Κ

%%

  • Environmental Conditions
  • Humidex > 37 Ημερες %

Coastal Regions

  • Internal Water Bodies
  • Shore conditions/ Water quality

Flooding
% Reduction of water % Area in danger

%%

Beaches

Biodiversity and Nature

  • Wetlands
  • Drought
  • % Area in danger

% Area in danger

pH (CO2)
%

Landscapes of Natural Beauty Marine Environment
Deterioration Acidity

%N

  • Atmosphere
  • Quality (SOX, NOX, SP)
  • Pollutant Concentration

Conc%

4
The selection of sectors and activities of SAR likely to be threatened by the Climate Change was based on ELSTAT’s 4 classification for the national economy but was also complemented by the additional categories beyond the economic dimension of the Natural Environment, Structured Environment, Cultural Heritage and Society.
The next steps (III &IV) of the methodology, as shown in Fig.2, was to estimate the vulnerability of each sector and activity in the event of occurrence of “reference” changes in the climatic parameters.
Vulnerability assessment is based on:

 Activity-specific quantitative and qualitative assessments of Greek and international literature on the
“sensitivity” of each sector and activity to climate change
 Internal risk assessments reported in annual reports of business executives as well as in  Expert’s judgment of project team members

In addition to the “sensitivity” of each sector, the probability of the occurrence and geographical extent of climate change, the size of the affected population, and the complexity and interactions of phenomena are taken into account. Human intervention in the above areas can facilitate adaptation to climate change, limiting its negative impacts (e.g. by implementing preventive fire protection measures in the case of forest fires). Therefore, the next step (V) in the methodology is to assess the potential reduction in vulnerability due to the existing capability of adaptation. The actual intensity of each climatic parameter according to the following figure, as derived from its values according to the results of the numerical models over a period of time, geographical area and scenario, is used for the risk assessment (Step VI).

Fig.3: Step VI describes the calculation of the sectoral risk and the classification of sectoral activities

In the next step (VII), each activity is rated in terms of the risk of each climatic parameter (expressed by the most activity-related element if there are more than one), essentially as the percentage of calculated values of a parameter in relation with the reference value "on the basis of which the" reference "vulnerability has been assessed. The risk is also expressed in a 5-point scale (negligible, small, medium, long, extreme from 0 to 4).
The climatic risk for each activity is calculated as the product of "standard" vulnerability to the risk for each climatic variable (Step VIII).
Finally (Step IX), by combining all the risk assessments for the two scenarios, the two periods and the two geographical areas (Cyclades and Dodecanese), one can estimate the overall risk of each activity / sector so that it is able to identify sectoral spatial and geographical priorities for adaptation actions.

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    CONSTRUCTING CRISIS AT EUROPE'S BORDERS The EU plan to intensify its dangerous hotspot approach on Greek islands JUNE 2021 Table of contents 1 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 5 The EU hotspot: containment strategy on the Greek islands 7 The Human Cost of Containment 8 Mental health deterioration among adults 10 Children at risk: mental health 11 Children at risk: physical health and well-being 11 Sexual violence and a chronic lack of protection 12 Systematic gaps in healthcare 13 The COVID-19 effect: conflation of public health and migration control 14 The ‘Shield’ of Europe: Normalisation of Push-backs and Violence at Borders 16 The EU’s Dangerous Hotspot Experiment 16 The everyday violence of containment 18 Failure to identify and protect vulnerable people 20 Erosion of asylum: ‘Fast track’ procedures and return 21 The expansion of detention 22 Moving Forward: EU Intensifies its Dangerous Approach 22 The renewed and intensified hotspot approach: MPRIC red flags 26 Conclusion 28 References 30 Annex: Reported Deaths in Hotspots Cover: Asylum seekers behind a razor wire fence in Vathy hotspot, Samos, March 2016, © GUILLAUME BINET/MYOP |2 CONSTRUCTING CRISIS AT EUROPE’S BORDERS Executive Summary Over the past five years, an entirely avoidable and the situation, the EU and its member states intend predictable policy-driven humanitarian crisis to intensify and institutionalise its containment has been unfolding in the Greek islands of Lesvos, and deterrence strategy. Samos, Chios, Leros, and Kos, with devasting consequences for the people trapped there. After In September 2020, the notorious Moria RIC fleeing their homes and surviving harrowing was burned to the ground in a destructive and journeys to Europe, the indefinite containment, symbolic moment.
  • Nikos Rodios by Mark Messenger

    Nikos Rodios by Mark Messenger

    THE CERAMIC CONTINUUM OF Nikos Rodios by Mark Messenger Nikos Rodios is a Greek artist who lives in the Greater Sporades on Skopelos Island. It is a stun- ning landscape with a profound heritage, but every milieu has its story and social cadence. What en- dures is not what is conspicuous but what provides sustenance. Rodios’ artwork, proceeding from that of his grandfather, father, and uncle, is the styliza- tion of such a vital continuum. It is a collection of forms that affirm precedent, aspiration, and an emphatic present. It is an essence Rodios condenses without comment. This is a meditation on his family’s legacy, because it is a shared dynamic. Have you ever looked through a gal- lery searching fruitlessly for cultural relevance? What Bernard Leach, the British formalist, referred to as a ‘taproot’? If so, then you know how ar- rogant this feels, but the insistence of truth remains. I look for an antithesis, even if it’s rash. If you know this reaction, then you understand the aesthetic anarchy of Paul Soldner, the American Abstract Expressionist. It is creatively permissive, mischievous, and prolific. Attempting to meld these ideologies poses a question, “What might authentic creativity look like in this context?” Here I think both Leach and Soldner would nod, but I suspect they would also point to a final catharsis. I recently underwent this sequence in Greece. I had spent several days at the museums in Athens and Iraklion and witnessed, first hand, some of the breadth of Aegean ceramics; its inventive design, elegant craftsmanship, and continuity.
  • The Molasse of Paros Island, Aegean Sea

    The Molasse of Paros Island, Aegean Sea

    ZOBODAT - www.zobodat.at Zoologisch-Botanische Datenbank/Zoological-Botanical Database Digitale Literatur/Digital Literature Zeitschrift/Journal: Annalen des Naturhistorischen Museums in Wien Jahr/Year: 1980 Band/Volume: 83 Autor(en)/Author(s): Dermitzakis M., Papanikolaou D. Artikel/Article: The Molasse of Paros Island, Aegean Sea. 59-71 ©Naturhistorisches Museum Wien, download unter www.biologiezentrum.at Ann. Naturhist. Mus. Wien 83 59-71 Wien, Dezember 1980 The Molasse of Paros Island, Aegean Sea By M. DEEMITZAKIS & D. PAPANIKOLAOU X) with contributions of S. THEODOBIDIS and R. MIRKOU (With 7 textfigures) Manuscript received on 17th of March 1980 Zusammenfassung Auf der Insel Paros bildet die Molasse die höchste Formation der Marmara-Decke. Diese ist ein Teil der regionalen Kykladen-Decke und umfaßt alle vorobermiozänen, nichtmetamorphen Gesteine des Gebietes. Das Alter der Molasse und ihrer Transgression auf den Ophiolithen wurde mit Foraminiferen und kalkigem Nannoplankton als Burdiga- lien bestimmt. Daraus ergibt sich eine Platznahme der Kykladen-Decke in der Zeit nach dem Burgidalien und vor dem Messinien, da die frühesten autochthonen Sedimente auf Milos dieses Alter haben. Die Kykladen-Decke stammt wahrscheinlich aus einem Gebiet südlich der Kykladen, etwa aus dem jetzigen Kreta-Becken. Abstract The Molasse of Paros Island is the upper formation of Marmara nappe, which is part of the regional Cycladic nappe comprising all the pre-upper Miocene non-metamorphic rocks of the area. The age of the Molasse as well as of its transgression on the ophiolites was determined by foraminifera and calcareous nannoplankton as Burdigalian. Hence, the emplacement of the Cycladic nappe is of post-Burdigalian and of pre-Messinian age (from the age of the first autochthonous sediments of Milos).
  • Greece Aegean Islands

    Greece Aegean Islands

    FACT SHEET > Aegean Islands / 1-31 May 2018 Greece Aegean Islands Arrivals kept pace in May Seven people were injured and Government-authorized (2,900) compared to April 900 asylum-seekers left the transfers from the islands (3,000). Lesvos received the Moria reception centre for other slowed to 1,100 in May from highest number, 53 per cent and sites on Lesvos after violent 1,600 in April, as reception were mainly Syrian, Iraqi, and clashes on 25 May. remained overstretched. Afghan families. POPULATION OF CONCERN FUNDING (AS OF 5 JUNE 2018) Host Islands USD 239.3 M Lesvos 8,000 requested for the Greece operation Chios 1,750 Samos 2,300 Gap Kos 1,200 18 % Leros 900 43.5 M Rhodes 200 Tilos 30 Kastelorizo 20 TOTAL: 14,400 Funded 82 % * UNHCR Greece estimate as of 30 May 2018 of those who 195.9 M remained on the Aegean islands since the 2015-2016 mass flow. UNHCR PRESENCE Staff: 53 National Staff 5 International Staff Offices: 1 Islands Unit in Athens 1 Sub Office on Lesvos 3 Field Offices on Chios, Samos, Kos 2 Field Units on Leros and Rhodes www.unhcr.org 1 FACT SHEET > Aegean Islands / 1-31 May 2018 Working with Partners UNHCR supports the Government of Greece who coordinates the refugee response. The Office works with other UN agencies, international and national NGOs, State and regional institutions, community-based organisations, refugees, and host communities through sectoral working groups on Lesvos, Chios, Samos, Kos and Leros. Main Activities Protection ■ UNHCR provides information on rights and obligations, asylum procedures and offers legal counselling and representation to asylum-seekers directly and through partners.
  • An Overview of the Greek Islands' Autonomous Electrical Systems

    An Overview of the Greek Islands' Autonomous Electrical Systems

    Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, 2019, 10, 55-82 http://www.scirp.org/journal/sgre ISSN Online: 2151-4844 ISSN Print: 2151-481X An Overview of the Greek Islands’ Autonomous Electrical Systems: Proposals for a Sustainable Energy Future Nikolas M. Katsoulakos Metsovion Interdisciplinary Research Center, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece How to cite this paper: Katsoulakos, N.M. Abstract (2019) An Overview of the Greek Islands’ Autonomous Electrical Systems: Proposals Among the Greek islands, 61 are based—currently—on autonomous electric- for a Sustainable Energy Future. Smart al systems for covering the electrical energy demand and are characterized as Grid and Renewable Energy, 10, 55-82. Non-Interconnected Islands (NII). The average electricity production cost in https://doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2019.104005 the NII is 2.5 times higher than in areas with access to the main, intercon- Received: March 7, 2019 nected electricity grid (IEG) of Greece. In this paper, an analytic overview of Accepted: April 14, 2019 the autonomous electricity systems of Greek islands is provided, focusing on Published: April 17, 2019 electricity consumption and production, as well as on the relative costs. For Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and investigating possibilities for improving the situation, especially in small, re- Scientific Research Publishing Inc. mote islands, simulations for the energy system of Astypalea are conducted. It This work is licensed under the Creative is proved that further use of renewables in combination with energy storage Commons Attribution International License (CC BY 4.0). can lower the current, high energy costs. Expansion of the IEG is not eco- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ nomically viable for islands which are far away from the mainland and their Open Access peak loads are less than 10 ΜW.