Developing a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Island Regions

Developing a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Island Regions. The case of South Aegean Region in Greece. Apostolos P. Siskos1, Dimitrios Voloudakis1, Dimitrios Lalas1, Nikolaos Gakis1, Grigorios Andronikos2, Dionysios Gkoutis1, Maria Strataki1 1Envirometrics Technical Consultants and Engineers Ltd, 20 Karea str. Athens, 11636, Greece 2South Aegean Region's Managing Authority, 22 Saki Karagiorga str., Ermoupolis, Syros, 841 00, Greece Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, region, island, South Aegean Presenting author email: [email protected] ABSTRACT The overall purpose of the Regional Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (RAPCC) of the South Aegean Region (SAR) is to contribute to enhancing the region's resilience to climate change in all sectoral policies as outlined in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. This means increasing preparedness and capacity to address the impacts of climate change at local and regional level, developing a coherent approach and improving coordination. The methodology used to assess the climatic vulnerability of the individual sectors and geographical areas of the SAR and ultimately the climate risk assessment comprised nine solid steps beginning from defining “reference" changes of climatic variables to assess the vulnerability of the different activities and ending with ranking sectors and activities as to the magnitude of the risk. The analysis of the climatic vulnerability and danger and hence risk of the different sectors and activities of the South Aegean Region was carried out for the short and medium term (2021-2050) and long-term horizons (2071-2100) and distinct for the geographical units of Cyclades and Dodecanese. According to these findings the proposed measures in the RAPCC were based on island specific characteristics such as financial-social activities, geomorphology and developed both in horizontal and sectoral actions and classified into High, Medium and Low priority. INTRODUCTION The Regional Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (RAPCC) of the South Aegean Region (SAR) is compiled in the framework of the obligations and specifications deriving from the relevant national legislation (L.41414 / 2016 and MD 11258/2017). The South Aegean Region is a border region at national and European level. Its main characteristic is its wholly islandic environment as it consists of two large island groups, the Cyclades and the Dodecanese. Its geographic position in the southeast basin of the Mediterranean places it according to the 4th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6 in those areas characterized as vulnerable to climate change. The Region's economy relies heavily on the tertiary sector and particularly on the services sector. According to Eurostat 5, the Region of South Aegean is the first at national and pan-European level in the statistical index "overnight stays in hotel accommodation relative to the size of the population (per 1000 inhabitants)" approaching 69.777. Moreover, much of the Region, both the Cyclades and the Dodecanese, has been recognized by the scientific community as ecologically important. This is a total of 31 sites proposed for inclusion in the NATURA 2000 network 8, 39 Corine Habitats as a whole, and a significant number of wetlands recorded at the Greek wetland sites of the Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre. Fig.1: Map of the South Aegean Region The project aims to record short-, medium- and long-term assessments of climate change in the South Aegean Region, to assess the immediate and future environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change 1on fifteen economic sectors of the Region and to evaluate (both environmentally and socio-economically) the possible adaptation actions in these areas. The fifteen sectors for which Sectoral Adaptation Policies have been developed in the scope of the RAPCC are (1) Agriculture and livestock farming, (2) Forests, (3) Biodiversity and ecosystems, (4) Fisheries, (5) Aquaculture, (6) Water resources, (7) Coastal zones, (8) Tourism, (9) Energy, (10) Infrastructure and Transport, (11) Health, (12). Built environment, (13) Extractive industry, (14) Cultural heritage and (15) Insurance sector. The proposed adaptation measures pillars and policy priorities of the RAPCC were connected to the objectives of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 10 according to the following table. Table 1: Correlating the Pillars-Policy Priorities RPACC of SAR with National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Objectives Pillars‐ Policy Priorities RAPCC Leadership and Enhancement of Administrative Capacity Promote and diffuse knowledge & skills Strengthening Resilience in Priority Areas National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Objectives Systematization and improvement of the decision‐making process (short and long‐term)  Connecting adaptation with promoting a sustainable development model through regional / local action plans Promoting actions and adjustment policies in all sectors of the economy, focusing on the most vulnerable Establishment of a mechanism for monitoring, evaluating and updating adaptation actions and policies Strengthening the adaptive capacity of Greek society through information and awareness actions MATERIALS AND METHODS The South Aegean Region is divided into two distinct climatic regions, those of Cyclades (CY) and Dodecanese (D) 1. Climate change assessment, analysis of its impact on various sectors as well as vulnerability analysis of the South Aegean Region require climate data with the greatest possible spatial and temporal analysis. The data used cover a period of 30 years for the current climate (1961-1990) and two 30-year periods for the future climate (2021-2050 mid-term and 2071-2100 long term) as the analysis in the CCISC and are the results of the application of the regional climatic model RACMO2.2 of KNMI with a 0.11o special resolution, in conjunction with the global climatic model EC-EARTH based under the RCP4.5 (GHG stabilization) and RCP8.5 (GHG growth) scenarios in the scope of the EURO-CORDEX project 7. Climatic parameters accessed were mean daily values of (1) air temperature, (2) relative humidity, (3) cloud cover fraction, (4) sunshine duration, (5) wind speed, (6) precipitation. In addition, to estimate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, the following climatic indicators were also accessed:  changes of average minimum and maximum temperatures  number days per year with a maximum daily temperature > 35oC (heat waves)  number of days of discomfort (computed with HUMIDEX Index)  number days per year with a minimum temperature < 0oC (night frost)  maximum hourly precipitation per year  number of days with increased risk of forest fires computed with the FWI-Forest Weather Index- System12. The methodology used to assess the climatic vulnerability of the individual sectors and geographical areas of the South Aegean Region and ultimately the climate risk assessment was similar to other notable relevant studies 11 and EU recommendations 2 and comprised the following steps: 1. Definition of “reference” changes of climatic variables to assess the vulnerability of the different activities in light of the maximum expected variations from the results of the scenarios. 2. Identification of business processes and operational parameters per activity affected by the change in the climatic parameters 3. Definition of a scale of impacts based on the operational parameters per activity. 4. Vulnerability per activity in the event of the “reference” climate parameter changes. 5. Estimation of potential vulnerability reduction due to the possibility of adaptation. 2 6. Estimation of the magnitude of expected changes per time period (2 periods, 2021-2050 and 2010-2100) and per scenario (2 scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) 7. Assessment of the danger of the climatic changes from the model estimates in relation to the respective “reference” ones 8. Risk assessment by sector and activity by combining vulnerability and danger. 9. Ranking sectors and activities as to the magnitude of the risk Fig.2: Summary presentation of the climate hazard assessment methodology for the South Aegean Region The first step (I) of the methodology, as shown in the figure above, was the definition of the “reference” climate change to assess the climatic vulnerability of a sector or activity. As a “benchmark” climate change, extreme values were selected from the overview of published estimates for the Mediterranean region as well as the results of climate simulations for all periods and scenarios. Table 2: Benchmark climate parameters values for the definition of the reference climate change Parameters (difference from today’s conditions) Maximum Value Unit Definition of change for the climate parameters Temperature Mean <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Small </li><li style="flex:1">Medium </li><li style="flex:1">High </li><li style="flex:1">Extreme </li></ul>ΔoC ΔoC 48Μean Maximum 0.5 < Δ <1 1 < Δ <2 Δ < 250 < 10 1 < Δ < 2 2 < Δ < 4 2 < Δ < 4 4 < Δ < 6 Δ > 4 Δ > 6 DegreeDays net (Heating – Cooling) Δ Growing <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">DegreeDays. </li><li style="flex:1">1000 </li></ul>50 Forest Weather Index (FWI) Δ FWI Δ TCI 250 < Δ < 500 10 < Δ < 20 500 < Δ < 750 20 < Δ < 30 Δ > 750 Δ > 30 Tourist Climate Index (TCI) months with high demand 20 Drought Mean Annual Precipitation Days with precipitation <1mm Wind <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ % </li><li style="flex:1">25 </li></ul>40 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">3 < Δ < 5 </li><li style="flex:1">5< Δ < 10 </li><li style="flex:1">10 < Δ < 15 </li></ul>20 < Δ < 30 Δ > 15 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ > 30 </li><li style="flex:1">Δ days </li><li style="flex:1">3 < Δ < 10 </li><li style="flex:1">10 < Δ < 20 </li></ul>Mean Speed <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ m/s </li><li style="flex:1">3</li><li style="flex:1">< 0.5 </li><li style="flex:1">0.5 < Δ < 1.0 </li></ul>10 < Δ < 20 1.0 < Δ < 1.5 20 < Δ < 30 Δ > 1.5 Δ > 30 Days with maximum wind speed >10.8m/s 5 < Δ < 10 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ days </li><li style="flex:1">40 </li></ul>Heat waves Days with maximum T >35οC Days with Humidex > 38 Cold invasions and Frost Days with minimumΤ < 0 οC Rainfall and Snowfall Two days height of precipitation Decrease of snowfall height Increase of sea level Sea Level Δ days Δ days 30 40 3 < Δ < 10 5 < Δ < 10 10 < Δ < 15 10 < Δ < 20 15 < Δ < 20 20 < Δ < 30 Δ > 20 Δ > 30 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ days </li><li style="flex:1">60 </li><li style="flex:1">Δ < 10 </li><li style="flex:1">10 < Δ < 30 </li><li style="flex:1">30 < Δ < 50 </li><li style="flex:1">Δ > 50 </li></ul>Δ% Δ% 40 40 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ < 10 </li><li style="flex:1">10 < Δ < 20 </li></ul>10 < Δ < 20 20 < Δ < 30 20 < Δ < 30 Δ > 30 <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Δ > 30 </li><li style="flex:1">5 < Δ < 10 </li></ul>Δmm Δ % 100 50 20 < Δ < 35 10 < Δ < 20 35 < Δ < 50 20 < Δ < 30 50 < Δ < 100 30 < Δ < 50 Δ > 100 Δ > 50 Surges Increase of maximum height 3 For the assessment of vulnerability, as shown in Fig. 2, the second step (II) was to identify the processes and functional parameters of the sectors and activities affected by the change in climatic parameters and the effects of climate change (Table 3). Table 3: Impacts on activities occurring in the South Aegean Region affected by changes in climatic parameters and basic operational parameters based on changes in which the magnitude of the impact is estimated. Impacts of Changes in Climatic Parameters Activity (by NACE Classification) Primary Sector (Α, Β) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Main Impact </li><li style="flex:1">Operative Parameter </li><li style="flex:1">Units </li></ul>Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (A) Fisheries, Aquaculture (Α) Forestry (Α) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Production </li><li style="flex:1">Yearly Production </li></ul>Yearly Production % area in danger Yearly Production %%%%Fish stock Fires/Diseases Mining and Quarrying (Β) Manufacturing € Water and power availability <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Facilities/ Working conditions </li><li style="flex:1">Yearly Revenues </li></ul>Electricity, Gas, Steam & A/C Supply (D) Thermal Power Units Wind Power/Production efficiency Capacity factor Yearly Production Yearly Production Yearly Production Yearly Production Consumption %%%%%<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Hydro Power </li><li style="flex:1">Water supply </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Photovoltaics </li><li style="flex:1">Capacity factor </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Energy Demand </li><li style="flex:1">Heating/Cooling/Losse </li></ul>Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities (Ε) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Irrigation </li><li style="flex:1">Irrigation resources </li></ul>Drinking water resources Flooding Water resources Water resources Serice interuption %%%Water Supply Sewage & Waste Management Transport and Storage (Η) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Road Transport </li><li style="flex:1">Flooding/Damage/Deterioration </li></ul>Flooding/Damage % km under risk %%%%<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Rail </li><li style="flex:1">% km under risk </li></ul><ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Aviation </li><li style="flex:1">Lifting reduction / Deterioration </li></ul>Docks/ Wave height People/Goods activity <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">People/Goods activity </li><li style="flex:1">Ports </li></ul>Built Environment (E, F, L, Q, R) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Construction (F) </li><li style="flex:1">Structure Deterioration/Flooding </li></ul>Discomfort Repair costs per building Humidex > 37 increase Restoration value %Historic City Centers € %Cultural Heritage Sites & Buildings ® Hospitals, Health Service Facilities (Q) Sewage & Waste Management € Accommodation and Food Service Activities (I) Winter and Ski Resorts Structure Deterioration/Flooding Facility deterioration/Flooding Flooding/Fires mil€ %Operational ability reduction Numbers Ν<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Snow fall </li><li style="flex:1">Snowfall amount </li></ul>%%<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Summer Tourism </li><li style="flex:1">Attractiveness </li><li style="flex:1">Reduction of visits </li></ul>Tertiary Sector (G, Κ, Μ, Ν, Ο, P, R, S) Financial & Insurance Activities (Κ) Professional, Scientific & Techical Activities (Μ) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation ® Wholesale & Retail Trade (G) Other Service Activities (S) Education (P) <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Damages </li><li style="flex:1">Yearly Revenues </li></ul>Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Yearly Revenues Operating days reduction Services %%%%%%%%Working Conditions Working Conditions Working Conditions Working Conditions Operating Conditions Work load/working conditions Work load/working conditions Administrative & Support Service Activies (N) Public Administration and Defence (O) Human Health and Social Work Activities (Q) Population/Vulnerable Groups Population Services <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Health Effects </li><li style="flex:1">Morbitidy/100Κ </li></ul>%%<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Environmental Conditions </li><li style="flex:1">Humidex > 37 Ημερες % </li></ul>Coastal Regions <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Internal Water Bodies </li><li style="flex:1">Shore conditions/ Water quality </li></ul>Flooding % Reduction of water % Area in danger %%Beaches Biodiversity and Nature <ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Wetlands </li><li style="flex:1">Drought </li><li style="flex:1">% Area in danger </li></ul>% Area in danger pH (CO2) %Landscapes of Natural Beauty Marine Environment Deterioration Acidity %N<ul style="display: flex;"><li style="flex:1">Atmosphere </li><li style="flex:1">Quality (SOX, NOX, SP) </li><li style="flex:1">Pollutant Concentration </li></ul>Conc% 4 The selection of sectors and activities of SAR likely to be threatened by the Climate Change was based on ELSTAT’s 4 classification for the national economy but was also complemented by the additional categories beyond the economic dimension of the Natural Environment, Structured Environment, Cultural Heritage and Society. The next steps (III &IV) of the methodology, as shown in Fig.2, was to estimate the vulnerability of each sector and activity in the event of occurrence of “reference” changes in the climatic parameters. Vulnerability assessment is based on:  Activity-specific quantitative and qualitative assessments of Greek and international literature on the “sensitivity” of each sector and activity to climate change  Internal risk assessments reported in annual reports of business executives as well as in  Expert’s judgment of project team members In addition to the “sensitivity” of each sector, the probability of the occurrence and geographical extent of climate change, the size of the affected population, and the complexity and interactions of phenomena are taken into account. Human intervention in the above areas can facilitate adaptation to climate change, limiting its negative impacts (e.g. by implementing preventive fire protection measures in the case of forest fires). Therefore, the next step (V) in the methodology is to assess the potential reduction in vulnerability due to the existing capability of adaptation. The actual intensity of each climatic parameter according to the following figure, as derived from its values according to the results of the numerical models over a period of time, geographical area and scenario, is used for the risk assessment (Step VI). Fig.3: Step VI describes the calculation of the sectoral risk and the classification of sectoral activities In the next step (VII), each activity is rated in terms of the risk of each climatic parameter (expressed by the most activity-related element if there are more than one), essentially as the percentage of calculated values of a parameter in relation with the reference value "on the basis of which the" reference "vulnerability has been assessed. The risk is also expressed in a 5-point scale (negligible, small, medium, long, extreme from 0 to 4). The climatic risk for each activity is calculated as the product of "standard" vulnerability to the risk for each climatic variable (Step VIII). Finally (Step IX), by combining all the risk assessments for the two scenarios, the two periods and the two geographical areas (Cyclades and Dodecanese), one can estimate the overall risk of each activity / sector so that it is able to identify sectoral spatial and geographical priorities for adaptation actions.

Developing a Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Island Regions

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