<<

THE STATE OF THE REGION A Baseline Report for a New Century

CUERE Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education MIPAR Institute for Policy Analysis Research

University of Maryland, Baltimore 1000 Hilltop Circle Baltimore, MD 21250 www.umbc.edu/cuere

Research for this project was supported by a grant from The Morris Goldseker Foundation Grant No. RI92001129

October 2002 The following CUERE staff contributed to this report: Stephen Coleman, Bernadette Hanlon, Royce Hanson, Anastasia Kolendo, Michael McGuire, Amy Rynes, Tudor Rus, Jonathan Russell-Anelli, Judy Unger. MIPAR Staff: Joseph Kirchner THE STATE OF THE BALTIMORE REGION: A BASELINE FOR A NEW CENTURY

INTRODUCTION AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

The Baltimore Region changed dramatically during the last three of the 20th century. Its economy, population, and landscape have been transformed, with profound consequences for the environment and the quality of life.

The driving force of these changes has been a massive shift in the regional economy from to services as the engine of employment growth. This structural shift was accompanied by a shift from concentration of economic activity in Baltimore City to new employment centers dispersed across the Region. The result has been a major change in what the Region does, where it does it, and who does it.

The population and labor force have changed with the economy. They are older and more diverse. The populations of all in the Region grew, but the highest rates of growth in the outlying counties. In contrast to the counties, the City lost almost a third of its population, and was continuing to experience a net loss of residents as the new century began. With depopulation of the City and dispersion of residential development throughout the Region, the urbanized area grew substantially, but its average density declined. The degree of racial segregation has declined slightly, but economic segregation has increased, and with it a growing spatial mismatch between moderate and low-income housing and employment opportunities.

The diffusion of homes and jobs contributed to increased traffic and longer commuting times in a Region that had a decline in the small percentage of its commuters that use public transportation in the 1990s. and growth in the number of vehicle miles traveled increased air pollution faster than improvements in technology could reduce it. High levels of impervious surfaces associated with urbanization degraded water quality in the Region's streams and complicate the interstate effort to restore the Bay.

These changes stress the Region's quality of life and its public services as its jurisdictions and the State cope with needs in education, health, and safety and with the management and distribution of economic and physical growth. The changes and shifts have impacted each jurisdiction in different ways. There is considerable variation between Baltimore City and the counties of the Region in income, employment rates, wages, and many of the quality of life indicators explored in this Report.

The nation's other metropolitan areas share most of the Baltimore Region's problems. In some respects conditions in the Baltimore Region are better than comparable areas; in others they are worse. What is unique to Baltimore is its assets and how they are used to address the issues that change generates. These assets include the and Baltimore- International Airport, both of which are among the busiest in the . They also include its location in the east coast urban corridor, strong governmental, health care, higher education, research, and cultural institutions, and a natural environment that, even with its problems, remains one of the most pleasant and attractive in the nation. Its work force remains better-educated than many comparable areas, and its housing stock is still reasonably affordable.

The indicators presented in this report raise issues about how the Baltimore Region can expand the mainstream of its new economy to include more of its residents and workers and reduce the number of places and people that are left behind, and do it in a way that respects and enhances the environment.

1 PURPOSE OF THE REPORT: As the brief introduction suggests, it is important for the Baltimore Region to know where it stands as it enters a new century in order to chart its future. This State of the Region Report:

‰ Provides a baseline against which future changes can be assessed by looking at key indicators that can be revisited every three to five years to measure progress and establish trends. In this report, indicators are presented primarily at the regional and county level to provide a broad view of conditions. They were selected for their strategic importance in making policy and investment decisions. They are designed to stimulate further inquiry into conditions at smaller scales, such as the community or . Indicators are provided that measure conditions and changes in the economy, population, landscape and environment, and the quality of life and public services of the Region.

‰ Compares conditions in the Baltimore Region with seven other regions are also provided, where data are available. The other regions selected either perform functions similar to those of the Baltimore Region in the global economy, compete directly with Baltimore in the mid- Region, or offer a contrasting economic history. The seven regions are: , , , , , St. Louis, and Washington D.C. Cincinnati, Cleveland, and St. Louis fall into the same population class as the Baltimore Region and perform some of the same regional and international functions. Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington are larger regions, but the first two have similar functions, and the Washington and Philadelphia Regions overlap and compete with the Baltimore Region for economic and population growth. Finally, the Atlanta Region was added to the comparison group because it is one of the nation's most rapidly growing regions and is in many ways a prototype "new economy" region, in contrast with the other "old economy" regions of the industrial northeast, of which Baltimore was a prime example. All of these regions are major regional diversified service centers and have undergone significant economic transformations in the last 30 years. All have central cities that have experienced substantial population and employment shifts or losses. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: The report is organized as follows: ‰ The Changing Economy ‰ The Changing Population ‰ The Landscape and Environment ‰ The Quality of Life and Public Services Though the Report is organized in this way, the findings do not exist in isolation. As the economy changed, so did the population and the landscape and environment. The quality of life was affected by the ways in which the Region addressed and adapted to economic, demographic, and landscape change.

THE CHANGING ECONOMY: ‰ The center of economic gravity of the Baltimore Region has shifted from manufacturing to services. All eight regions exhibit a similar pattern. Almost one out of every five workers in the Baltimore Region now works in a service occupation, compared to only 5 percent in production occupations.

‰ Employment has shifted to the . In 1960, seven of the ten largest employment centers were in Baltimore City. Today only three are in the City are and the Region has taken a more multi-centered form. However, more of the Baltimore Region's jobs are located within a ten- mile radius of the center than any comparable region except Cincinnati.

‰ Although the regional economy has grown over the last few decades, there is wide variation in the rate of employment growth among the Region's jurisdiction. During the 1990s employment in Howard County grew by 48 percent but declined by 4.5 per cent in the City

2 ‰ The fastest-growing industry within the Baltimore Region is Business Services and is expected to employ more people than Health Services within the next few years.

‰ The average weekly wage for service jobs varies across the Region. The weekly wage for Business Service workers in Baltimore City is $536, compared to $907 in Howard County

‰ Major disparities remain between races and sexes in the major occupational categories. Whites continue to dominate managerial, official and professional positions. Blacks make up almost half of all service workers and 45 percent of laborers in the Region. A higher percent age of black women are employed in the Baltimore Region than are black men. THE CHANGING POPULATION: ‰ The Baltimore Region's population grew in the past decade but its growth was not evenly distributed. The Region's population grew 7 percent from 1990 to 2000 but Baltimore City lost 11.5 percent of its population while Howard County's grew 32.3 percent.

‰ Almost the entire net increase in the Baltimore Region's population between 1990 and 2000 results from increases in the non-white population.

‰ With increased diversity, there is less racial segregation in the Baltimore Region now than in the past decade. Baltimore City remains the most racially segregated jurisdiction, even though it has experienced a substantial reduction since 1990. Baltimore County ranks second, followed by Harford, Anne Arundel, Howard and Carroll Counties. Howard and Anne Arundel Counties have become slightly more segregated during the last 10 years.

‰ There was substantial population mobility throughout the Baltimore Region as newcomers entered and some residents left. Every jurisdiction in the Region attracted new residents and each lost some to other places during the last half of the 1990s. All except Baltimore City had net gains, as more people entered than left. The City experienced a net loss of about 7000 people a year as more than four left for every three that came.

‰ Although the Baltimore Region is no longer a strong magnet for immigrants when compared to the other seven metropolitan regions, there was a considerable increase in the foreign- born population in the 1990s. Forty-two percent of all foreign-born residents living in the Region arrived after 1990.

‰ Economic segregation in the Region increased during the 1990s. Median household income within the Baltimore Region ranges from $34,000 in Baltimore City to $80,000 in Howard County. Of the 262,000 residents of the Region that live in poverty, 58 percent of them live in Baltimore City. Only 4 percent of the Region's poor live in Howard County and 3 percent live in Carroll County. ‰ Baltimore County has the largest share of older adults. Fifteen percent of its population are 65 years and older. Howard County has the highest percentage of people in the prime income- earning 35-49 years old group (35%). Carroll and Harford counties are not far behind. Howard County also has the largest share of children younger than 10 years old. THE LANDSCAPE AND ENVIRONMENT: ‰ Since 1982, the urbanized portion of the Baltimore Region has became less dense as population grew more slowly than the rate of land consumption for new housing and other uses. The highest population densities remain in Baltimore City where most census tracts have densities above 2500 housing units per square mile.

‰ Traffic congestion increased during the past two decades. Baltimore Region drivers are stuck in traffic an average of 31 hours a year-six hours more than in 1982-the equivalent of approxi-

3 -mately four working days. Over half of the Region's 1470 freeway lane miles are severely or extremely congested, and travelers experience some level of congestion during 57 percent of peak travel periods.

‰ The majority of residents of each jurisdiction in the Region, except for Howard and Carroll counties, live and work in the same jurisdiction.

‰ Very few Baltimore Region commuters use public transportation. Just slightly more than six percent of commuters used public transportation in 2000.

‰ The Baltimore Region ranks second among the comparison regions in numbers of unhealthy ozone days. Automobiles are the principal regional source of this air pollution.

‰ Most of the watersheds in the Baltimore Region have less serious water quality problems but have a high vulnerability to degradation. This can be attributed to the increased amount of impervious surfaces due to urban sprawl. Overall, only 28 percent of the stream miles in the Region are rated by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources as having good water quality. Forty percent are considered to be in poor condition.

‰ The Region contains some 279 brownfields, 146 of them in Baltimore City. QUALITY OF LIFE AND PUBLIC SERVICES: ‰ The Baltimore Region contains 649,503 acres of Federal, State and local parkland and protected areas, with 419,149 acres of land protected by conservation or agricultural easement - most of it in Harford, Carroll and Baltimore Counties. This, along with the thirty museums in the area, adds to the appeal of the Baltimore Region to both visitors and residents.

‰ The John's Hopkins University and the University of Maryland, Baltimore lead all other universities in the eight regions in federal funding for research and development, particularly in the medical field. Together both universities received $1.1 billion dollars in total research and development expenditures in 2000.

‰ The Baltimore Region ranks fourth among comparison regions in the percentage of residents with a bachelors degree. However, just over 85 percent of the Regions population completed high school, fewer than any of the other comparison regions.

‰ There is wide variation in educational attainment and school performance among school systems in the Region.

‰ The percentage of the Region's housing that is affordable for a median-income family has increased over the last ten years from 60 percent in 1991 to more than 70 percent in 2000. But there are major disparities in property values among the counties and the City. The regional planning with the highest property values are in Howard County.

‰ Taking income into account, the problem of housing affordability is worse in Baltimore City than in all other jurisdictions.

‰ Health disparity between blacks and whites exists throughout the Region. Black men in Baltimore City and all the counties have the highest rate of premature death of all other groups. The infant mortality rate for blacks is highest in all counties and the City.

‰ Crime rates in all categories have been on a downward trend throughout the Region since 1995. This reflects a similar trend on a national level. However, there is considerable variaion in crime rates between jurisdictions. Property, violent and drug crime rates are substantially

4 higher in Baltimore City than in the counties. Of the suburban counties, Baltimore County has the highest rate of crime.

‰ There is great variation in the fiscal capacity of the Region's jurisdictions to provide an equal level of services at the same tax rate. If every person in the Baltimore Region were taxed the same percentage of personal income, Howard County, with a per capita income of $33,000, would collect 26 percent more revenue than the average. Harford County, with a per capita income of $28,000 would collect 15% less than the average. Baltimore City has the lowest per capita income ($27,000), but would do slightly better than Harford because it has more people to tax.

5 THE CHANGING ECONOMY

The world economy changed dramatically in the last three decades, led by revolutionary advancements in telecommunications and information technology. Among the most profound aspects of this change among advanced economies are the shift in employment from manufacturing to services and the increasing mobility of capital. Cities and regions that had strong manufacturing sectors experienced wrenching shifts in the economic functions they perform and in their role in the world economy. The Baltimore Region exemplifies the problems of adapting to the forces of economic restructuring and globalization.

Thirty years ago, one of every five workers in the Baltimore Region held a job in manufacturing, then the largest private sector employer. By 1996 manufacturing firms employed only one of every 14 workers, and the manufacturing sector's share of employment is continuing to decline, although it still produces a significant share of the Region’s income.

On the other hand, employment in service industries almost doubled, growing in the Baltimore Region from 18 percent in 1969 to 34 percent of workers in 1996. More than four of every ten workers in the Baltimore Region is now employed in either Services or the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (F.I.R.E.) sector. Wholesale and Retail Trade has maintained a steady 20 percent of employment in the Region, as it is the sector most sensitive to local population. Government employment has also held relatively constant over three decades, declining slightly from 22 percent of employment in 1969 to 18 percent in 1996.

DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY: BALTIMORE REGION 1969-1996

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995

Manufacturing Trade Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Services Government

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The general shift from manufacturing to services is taking place across all the nation's metropolitan areas. This can be seen in the eight regions included in this study, ranging from traditional "frostbelt" manufacturing centers like Cleveland, to Washington, a highly specialized service center, and Atlanta, a booming "sunbelt" center. Service industries now employ more than 30 percent of all workers in each of the eight regions. Only the Washington Region has a smaller percentage of manufacturing jobs than the Baltimore Region, and these two regions share the largest percentages of government workers-18 percent in Baltimore and 23 percent in Washington. This large component of the economy provides

6 both a level of stability to the economy of the Baltimore-Washington Corridor, and a base of well-paying jobs with good benefits.

METROPOLITAN ECONOMIC STRUCTURE: BALTIMORE AND SELECTED REGIONS 1996

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Baltimore Atlanta Boston Cincinnati Cleveland Philadelphia St. Louis Washington

Services Trade Government M anufacturing F.I.R.E. Extractive & Transformative Industries Infrastructure

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Structural change has been accompanied by uneven growth in employment, with periods of fairly rapid growth alternating with slow growth or even decline. The Baltimore and Philadelphia Regions had negative 5-year growth rates from 1990 to 1994, and Cleveland had negative growth in the early 1980s. The Region had a net gain of over 400,000 jobs - a 53.3 percent increase - from 1970 to 2000, although this rate of growth was substantially less than in four of the other regions. And in the last decade, only the Philadelphia Region grew more slowly. These figures reflect the relative difficulty that older industrialized regions had in adapting to the combined effects of troughs in the business cycle and restructuring of their economies.

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS 1970-1999

1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1998-99 1970-99 1990-99 Atlanta 17.9% 22.0% 18.1% 16.1% 12.9% 17.6% 195.1% 38.8% Cinncinnati 5.3% 13.8% 1.4% 13.8% 5.4% 9.3% 69.3% 18.2% Washington 11.4% 12.2% 10.9% 18.7% 0.6% 9.9% 103.8% 12.8% St. Louis 4.0% 12.5% 4.7% 8.2% 2.7% 6.5% 47.2% 11.8% Boston 5.2% 14.5% 10.1% 6.6% 0.8% 9.8% 57.1% 11.5% Cleveland 3.6% 7.8% -3.7% 8.1% 2.2% 6.6% 25.1% 11.3% Baltimore 6.5% 9.8% 5.8% 12.4% -1.8% 7.8% 53.3% 7.6% Philadelphia 0.5% 6.5% 4.3% 9.2% -1.9% 7.6% 29.4% 6.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Regional Accounts Data

AIRPORT AND REMAIN KEY ECONOMIC ASSETS

In focusing on the changes in economic structure it is possible to overlook traditional sectors that remain critical elements in positioning the Region in the new economic system. A major international airport is one of the most important factors in determining the role of urban centers in a global economy. Baltimore-Washington International Airport is one of the fastest-growing terminals in the country, and since September 11, 2001 it has become the busiest in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor, serving 26

7 commercial airlines with nearly 800 scheduled flights daily. BWI provides employment for 11,000 workers and its activities generate over 74,000 jobs for the Region. The table below tracks the airport's growth in passengers and cargo from 1997 to 2001.

BWI AIRPORT: PASSENGER AND CARGO ACTIVITY 1997 - 2001

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Millions of Passengers 14.1 15.0 17.4 19.7 20.3 Millions of Pounds of Cargo:Freight & Mail 440.8 509.2 496.5 520.5 496.3

Source: Maryland Aviation Administration, 2002.

VALUE OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS: MAJOR EAST COAST PORTS

The Port of Baltimore Value of Imports Value of Exports remains one of the three ($Billions) ($Billions) busiest on the East Coast, Philadelphia 63.5 1.2 ranking third, after 58.1 6.7 Philadelphia and New Baltimore 15.8 7.9 York, in the value of Boston 15.5 0.6 imports and second, after Norfolk 11.1 25.2 Norfolk, in the value of Tampa 10.4 1.3 exports passing through the port. 10.3 4.5 Source: U.S. Maritime Administration, 2002. U.S. port totals by type of service

CHANGING OCCUPATIONS AND WAGES Meanwhile, the shift from blue collar to white collar work is continuing. By 2000 almost one out of every five workers in the Baltimore Region was employed in office and administrative support jobs. Production occupations employed only one of every 20 workers.

EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION GROUP: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

Farming, Fishing, Forestry Legal Life/Phys./Social Sciences Arts/Desigen/ Entertainnment Cmty & social Services Arch & Eng. Healthcare Support Computer & Mathematics Protective Services Personal Care & Service Buildings & Grounds Installation/Maint./Repair Bsns. & Finance Ops. Construction/Extraction Health Pract. & Tech. Production Education,Training, Libr. Transportation Food Prep. & Serv. Management Sales & Related Office & Admin.

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 In the new regional economy, FASTEST GROWING OCCUPATIONS IN THE BALTIMORE REGION health service occupations Engineering employ more people than in any Health Business Eating & Special Trade Year & other employment category but Services Services Drinking Places Contractors the fastest-growing occupations Management are in business services, which 1990 102,811 58,552 63,203 45,144 36,149 grew 65 percent in the last decade and are expected soon 2000 110,057 96,627 74,370 48,099 45,856 to outnumber jobs in health Change 7,246 38,075 11,167 2,955 9,707 services. The numbers of workers in engineering and % Change 7.0% 65.0% 17.7% 6.5% 26.9% management occupations are Source: County Business Patterns, 2002; MD Department of Labor and Licensing Regulation, 2002. also increasing rapidly, growing by 26.9 percent from 1990 to 2000. Of the five fastest growing occupations, only those in eating and drinking places and low-paid positions in health services offer large numbers of jobs for workers with relatively few skills. All the largest employers in the Baltimore Region are now in the services sector but each county and the City tend to specialize in particular service industries. Health services, for example are highly concentrated in the City, where the major hospitals and medical research and education institutions are located. Business services, on the other hand, are the leading service sectors in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Howard, while remaining the second largest service industry in the City.

The Largest Industries in the Baltimore Region, 2000 (Weekly Wages included) Anne Weekly Baltimore Weekly Baltimore Weekly Carroll Weekly Harford Weekly Howard Weekly Arundel Wage City Wage County Wage County Wage County Wage County Wage Business Services 17,416 $897 29,345 $536 31,843 $718 4,634 $383 13,110 $907 Health Services 12,223 $755 53,105 $712 30,937 $855 3,697 $596 4,972 $715 Engineering 8,363 $1,154 11,917 $1,194 12,096 $1,145 & Management Eating & Drinking 15,967 $288 17,771 $266 23,231 $241 3,766 $190 5,137 $215 8,224 $227 Special Trade 8,690 $857 14,914 $859 4,720 $702 3,333 $668 7,787 $988 Wholesale Trade 2,043 $639 6,657 $1,214 Mis. Retail 13,094 $419 4,016 $388 Educational 22,317 $784 Services Social Services 1,940 $329 Source: Maryland Department of Human Resources, Snap Shot 2001 Series. Note: Blank cells indicates that this industry is not one of the largest five in the county or city

The number of jobs is only one indicator of an industry's importance to the economy of a jurisdiction. The quality of jobs is indicated by the average weekly wage workers earn. There is considerable variation in the wages earned in the same industries by workers in different jurisdictions. In Baltimore City, for example, business service workers earn an average of $536 a week, considerably less than the $907 average weekly wage for workers in the same sector in Howard County. In Baltimore County, those working in health services earn an average of $855 a week, while the average Baltimore City health worker earns almost $150 less.

There is less discrepancy across the Region for engineering and management jobs. In all counties, these jobs pay well. Eating and drinking establishments employ large numbers of workers, but offer relatively low wages in every county. In Baltimore City, educational services is the third largest employer, but pays employees a higher weekly wage than either business or health services, suggesting a higher ratio of professionals to other workers.

CHANGING WHO DOES THE WORK

Another important indicator of economic change and vitality of a region is the composition and

9 participation rate of its labor force. This is particularly the case when participation rates remain steady for men and increase for women and minorities, two groups that have historically been under- represented in the labor force. High rates of participation indicate a strong demand for workers and a perception by workers that job opportunities are available. Between 1990 and 1999, the total labor force participation rate of the Baltimore Region changed less than one percentage point and remained lower than any comparison metropolitan areas except Cleveland and Philadelphia. This relatively low rate in the Region may be partially explained by the high proportion of whites that are 65 or more years old. Participation by men and whites declined slightly in Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, and Philadelphia while the percentage of women in the labor force increased in all comparison areas except Washington. Black participation increased in all the regions except Boston. Black participation rates exceeded that for whites in Atlanta, Washington, and Cleveland. In the Baltimore Region, black and white participation rates converged during the 1990s, and by 2000 were separated by only eight-tenths of a percentage point. PERCENT OF POPULATION OVER 16 YEARS OLD PARTICIPATING IN THE LABOR FORCE Atlanta, with Total Men Women White Black the strongest 1990 1999 1990 1999 1990 1999 1990 1999 1990 1999 economic Atlanta 72.7 74.2 80.5 80.2 65.5 68.5 73.1 73.6 71.4 75.1 expansion of Washington 73.0 72.7 78.8 79.1 68.1 66.8 73.7 72.1 71.2 75.0 any of the Cinncinnati 66.1 70.0 75.4 76.8 57.9 64.0 67.0 70.7 59.3 65.5 comparison St. Louis 66.0 69.1 75.0 76.3 58.1 62.3 66.8 69.5 62.0 67.0 regions, experienced the Boston 69.0 68.4 76.5 75.3 61.9 62.0 69.2 68.7 66.9 65.9 greatest growth Baltimore 67.2 67.8 74.8 73.3 60.4 62.8 68.3 68.2 63.9 67.4 in labor force Cleveland 63.0 66.6 72.7 74.9 54.6 59.7 64.1 66.6 57.8 67.4 participation Philadelphia 64.7 65.0 73.4 70.9 56.6 60.0 65.8 66.2 59.7 60.3 rates. In all Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Regional regions, men Accounts Data participated at higher rates than women, but the rate for men declined in five of the eight regions during the decade, while the LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES FOR BALTIMORE REGION, rate for women increased everywhere but 1970 - 2000 Washington. Black participation in the labor (age 16 years and older) force increased in all regions except Boston % change COUNTIES 1970 1980 1990 2000 during the 1990s, and exceeded white 90 - 00 participation in Atlanta, Washington, and Total 63.5 68.5 73.7 71.1 -2.6% Cleveland. In Baltimore, black and white Anne Arundel Male 83.1 81.6 82.2 77.1 -5.1% participation rates converged, separated by Female 42.3 55.2 65.2 65.3 +0.1% only eight-tenths of a percentage point. Total 58.6 57.0 60.7 56.6 -4.1% Baltimore Male 74.2 67.5 67.4 59.1 -8.3% City Female 45.4 48.3 55.0 54.5 -0.5% Within the Baltimore Region, labor force Total 62.0 66.4 68.6 66.6 -2.0% participation rates range from a high of Baltimore 75.5 percent in Howard County to a low of Male 83.1 79.9 77.9 73.1 -4.8% County 56.6 percent in Baltimore City. Except for Female 42.9 54.3 60.4 61.0 +0.6% the City, a higher percentage of people Total 57.4 65.7 72.2 71.2 -1.0% Carroll Male 74.1 79.0 82.1 78.5 -3.6% participated in the labor force in 2000 than County Female 41.7 53.1 62.9 64.3 +1.4% in 1970, although participation declined in Total 63.6 67.5 73.7 71.3 -2.4% all parts of the Region during the 1990s. Harford Male 85.7 82.9 84.4 78.9 -5.5% Men participate in the labor force at higher County Female 40.5 52.1 63.2 64.2 +0.9% rates than women but the gap has closed as Total 62.1 72.7 79.2 75.5 -3.8% male participation declined-most notably in Howard Male 82.9 84.1 86.5 82.6 -3.9% Baltimore City (-8.3 percent)- while female County Female 41.3 61.5 72.2 68.8 -3.4% participation increased everywhere except Source: Data for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 from U.S. Bureau of the Census and in Howard County and Baltimore City. the Maryland Department of Planning

10 In Howard County, female participation dropped from its high of 72.2 percent in 1990 to 68.8 percent in 2000, possibly reflecting more affluent households choosing to have only one earner. In the City, female participation declined by a half of a percentage point, but came within fewer than four points of the male participation rate.

Labor force participation rates for minorities are an important indicator of economic vitality. Blacks and other minorities have higher rates of participation than whites in Baltimore City and Baltimore County. In Anne Arundel, black participation lags 10 percentage points behind whites but other minorities are only 2 points behind whites. In Howard County, only 2.9 percentage points separate whites and black participation rates, while other minorities fall five points behind whites. Five points separate whites from black and other minorities in Harford, but the largest gaps occur in Carroll, where white participation is 16 percentage points higher than blacks and 28.5 points above the rate for other minorities.

CITY AND COUNTY LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES BY RA CE A ND ETHNICITY : BA LTIMORE REGION 1999

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 Anne Baltimore Baltimore Carroll Harford Howard Arundel City County

White Other Minority Black

Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation

There are several possible explanations for the differences in local labor force participation rates among racial groups. One likely reason for the higher rate of minority participation in Baltimore County is the aging of its white population. Eighteen percent of county residents are older than 65, resulting in a large proportion of retirees. This may also partially explain the convergence of white and black participation rates and the higher rate for other minorities in the City, where 19 percent of the white population is over 65 years old, compared to 11 percent of blacks, six percent of Hispanics and seven percent of Asians. Although overall participation rates are converging, there are major differences in the extent to which whites and minorities, men and women participate in various occupations. White men continue to dominate the highest status managerial and official occupations, holding 56 percent of all such positions, almost twice as many as white women. The only other occupational category white men dominate is craft work, with almost 70 percent of the jobs,reflecting a long tradition of exclusion of minorities from many skilled trades. White males comprise the largest block of workers in technical and operative occupations. White women hold a majority of the Region's office and clerical occupations,

11 PARTICIPATION IN OCCUPATIONS BY SEX AND RACE: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

Men Women

Total Employment

Officials & Managers

Professionals

Technicians

Sales Workers

Office & Clerical Workers

Craft Workers

Operatives

Laborers

Service Workers

100% 0 100% White Black Hispanic Other minority

Source: U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, 2000 of every ten professional positions (more of these jobs than white men) and over a third of the sales positions. Black men fill almost a third of the laborer occupations--slightly more than white men-more than a fourth of the operator jobs, and one of every five positions in service industries. Black women hold one of every three office and clerical and service positions and nearly one of every five sales and technical positions. But like black men and other minorities they fill fewer than ten percent of the occupations in all other categories.

CHANGING WHERE THE WORK IS DONE

Employment growth NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT BALTIMORE REGION 1990 - 19999 in the Region change Share of jobs change generally followed 1990 1999 population growth, 1990-1999 1990 1999 90 - 99 favoring areas that REGION 925,525 1,008,775 9.0% 100% 100% 0 were historically less dependent on Anne Arundel 145,820 171,047 17.3% 15.8% 17.0% 1.2% manufacturing. Baltimore County 302,213 307,955 1.9% 32.7% 30.5% -2.1% During the 1990s, Carroll 37,303 42,339 13.5% 4.0% 4.2% 0.2% Baltimore City lost four percent of its Harford 39,345 56,618 43.9% 4.3% 5.6% 1.4% jobs and also four Howard 90,302 133,647 48.0% 9.8% 13.2% 3.5% percent of its share of Baltimore City 310,542 297,169 -4.3% 33.6% 29.5% -4.1% the Region’s jobs. Source: U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts; County Revised Patterns, 1997. Economic Census

12 Although Baltimore County had a slight gain in jobs during this period, its share of regional employment declined. Employment in Harford and Howard counties grew by 48 percent and 44 percent, respectively, and each increased its share of the Region's jobs.

LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS, 1996

Total Percent Percent Percent Outside Employment Within 3 Within 10 10 Mile Radius Within 35 Miles Mile Radius Mile Radius

Boston 1,536,970 25.7 55.0 45.0 Philadelphia 1,869,688 16.6 40.4 59.6 Washington 1,515,563 18.8 52.7 47.3 Baltimore 890,673 17.6 56.5 43.5 Cleveland 871,505 15.3 56.3 43.8 Cincinnati 727,847 21.5 59.2 40.8 Atlanta 1,457,958 11.3 38.1 61.9 St. Louis 993,487 8.355.0 42.0 58.0

Source: Edward I. Glaeser, Matthew Kahn, and Chenghuan Chu. 2001. Job Sprawl: Employment Location in U.S. Metrpolitan Areas. Brookings Center on Urban & Metropolitan Policy.

The suburbanization of employment is a common experience among metropolitan regions. By the mid- nineties, on average, only 16% of jobs were within three miles of the central business districts of U.S. metropolitan areas.

The Baltimore Region slightly exceeded the national average, with 17.6% of its jobs located within a three-mile radius of the center, ranking fourth of the eight comparison regions. However, of the eight regions, only Cincinnati had more jobs located within a ten-mile radius of the center than Baltimore.

10 Largest Employment Centers: Baltimore Region 1960 1999 Center Employees Center Employees Metrocenter 104,800 Metrocenter 141,900 East Baltimore 42,300 Towson 64,900 Canton 42,200 Columbia 60,700 Waverly 35,400 Cockeysville 49,500 Edgemere 34,700 East Baltimore 43,700 West Baltimore 34,700 Friendship 43,500 Towson 22,400 Annapolis 37,400 Highlandtown 21,200 Canton 35,500 20,300 Security 34,500 Annapolis 18,700 Fort Meade 34,000 Source: Baltimore Regional Council. June 5, 1999. Baltimore 2000 and Beyond: Regional Report, pp. 3, 6. The extent of employment decentralization in the Baltimore Region becomes clearer when one considers that in 1960 seven of the ten most important employment centers were in the City. Only three of them are located in the City today and, in general, employment is more dispersed across the Region than even these figures suggest. In 1960, more than half of the Region's jobs were located in the ten largest employment centers. By 2000, the ten largest centers employed only 38 percent of the Region's work-

13 force and Baltimore County, with slightly more than 30 percent of all jobs, had edged past the City as the jurisdiction with the largest number of jobs.

WHAT A CHANGING ECONOMY MEANS FOR THE BALTIMORE REGION Restructuring of the economy and globalization of industry is the moving force behind the triple transformation of the Region's economy, population, and landscape. As old industries contracted or collapsed, jobs that had been the mainstay of the regional economy vanished and centers that once employed thousands and districts that teemed with commercial activity declined; some turned into brownfields - underused or derelict and sometimes contaminated property.

The new economy's mainstream industries depend heavily on human capital. They require workers with more knowledge and different, often higher skills than were demanded in the older manufacturing industries. Because of their volatility and the rapid pace of technological advances, workers in an advanced economy need the capacity to adapt to changes in the and place of work. A large proportion of the work force can expect to change not only employers but occupations over the course of their careers as entire industries come into existence or collapse. The result is a two-tiered economy powered, on the one hand, by robust mainstream industries in health and business services, and slowed, on the other, by the difficulties experienced by people and places being left behind.

Economic restructuring reinforces and merges with powerful demographic currents that, together, will determine the capacity and speed with which the Region will adapt to a changing world. Together, economic and demographic changes are remaking the metropolitan landscape as people and jobs dispersed across the Region. The changes in type of economic activity and the ways in which land and built space are used require different forms of infrastructure and generate environmental consequences different from those of past generations.

The economic indicators presented here raise several strategic regional issues:

‰ How can the Region strengthen its comparative advantages in the mainstream industries such as health, education, and business services, and build on these and other key eco nomic assets, such as the port and BWI?

14 ‰ What can be done to prepare a work force with the skills required for employment in mainstream industries and the resilence to adapt to rapidly changing work and work places?

‰ What should be done to accelerate environmentally sound and economically beneficial reuse of vacated industrial and commercial land and/or buildings?

‰ Given the dispersal of employment across the Region, how can access to jobs be improved to increase economic opportunities for workers and meet the needs of growing firms?

15 THE CHANGING POPULATION

The Baltimore Region's population increased seven percent during the 1990s. Its rate of growth was less than half that of the Washington Region but slightly higher than the Boston and St. Louis Regions.

POPULATION CHANGE IN EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS 1990 - 2000 1990 2000 Change % Change Atlanta 2,959,950 4,112,198 1,152,248 38.9 Washington 4,378,831 5,095,639 716,808 16.4 Cincinnati 1,817,571 1,979,202 161,631 8.9 Baltimore 2,348,219 2,512,431 164,212 7.0 Boston 5,455,403 5,819,100 363,697 6.7 St. Louis 2,444,099 2,603,607 159,608 6.5 Philadelphia 5,892,937 6,188,463 295,526 5.0 Cleveland 2,859,644 2,945,831 86,187 3.0 Source: U.S. Census

As with employment, population growth was not distributed evenly across the region. Baltimore City's net population declined 11.5 percent during the decade while Howard County's population grew by nearly a third. Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties' populations increased 9 and 14 percent, respectively. Growing from a larger base population in 1990, both counties added approximately 62,000 new residents each, slightly more than the 58,000 new residents in Howard County, which grew at a robust rate of 32.2 percent.

POPULATION: CITY AND COUNTIES OF BALTIMORE REGION 1990 AND 2000

800

700

Thousands 600

500

400 1990 2000 300

200

100

0 Baltimore Baltimore Anne County Howard Harford City Arundel Carroll

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Almost the entire net increase in population in the Baltimore Region between 1990 and 2000 can be attributed to growth of the non-white population.

16 CHANGE IN MAJOR RACIAL AND ETHNIC GROUPS: BA LTIMORE REGION: 1990-2000

150% White Black Asian Hispanic or Latino 100%

50%

0%

-50%

Anne Baltimore Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore Region Arundel County City

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census The Black population of the Baltimore Region increased by 86,000 (13%). The Hispanic population increased 21,000 (70%), more than doubling its numbers in Howard County. And there were 26,000 more Asians (a 62% increase) in 2000 than in 1990, also doubling Howard's Asian community. Only 4,000 white residents were added in the entire Region.

Hispanic and Asian populations also increased in Baltimore City by 46 percent and 26 percent, respectively, but these gains did not offset the loss of 28 percent in the white population and a four percent decline in black residents. Both Baltimore and Howard Counties had large increases in black residents (77 and 62 percent, respectively), but Baltimore County also lost five percent of its white population. INCREASING POPULATION DIVERSITY The dispersion of blacks from the City and the increases in other minority groups has increased population diversity throughout the Region, especially in the suburbs. Overall, the Baltimore Region is experiencing less racial segregation now than in the past. The Dissimilarity Index - the most common measure of segregation between groups - measures the percentage of one group that would have to move across neighborhoods in order to be distributed the same way as the second group. Between 1990 and 2000, the Dissimilarity Index for the Baltimore has decreased by 4.3 percent from 70.9 percent in 1990 to 66.6% in 2000. PERCENT OF BLACK RESIDENTS THAT WOULD NEED TO MOVE With a score of 66.6, two-thirds of TO EQUALIZE THEIR PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION IN the Region's black residents would EVERY CENSUS TRACT IN THE REGION. have to move to provide an equal Dissimiarity Index Metropolitan Areas proportion of their population in 1990 2000 % points change each census tract. A modest Washington 64.1 59.5 -4.6 improvement of 4.3 percent in Atlanta 67.3 61.5 -5.8 dissimilarity between 1990 and Boston 67.7 62.9 -4.8 2000 allowed the Baltimore Region Baltimore 70.9 66.6 -4.3 Philadelphia 75.1 68.7 -6.4 to retain its fourth place among St. Louis 77.0 73.1 -3.9 the eight comparable regions, Cincinnati* 76.1 74.2 -1.9 although its improvement was Cleveland* 84.8 76.6 -8.2 smaller than that achieved by Source: Edward L. Glaeser & Jacob L. Vigdor. April 2001. Racial Segregation in the 2000 Philadelphia, Cleveland, Boston, Census: Promising News. Brookings Institute Atlanta, and Washington D.C. *Metropolitan Areas where land area increased more than 50% between 1990 and 2000.

17 Within the Baltimore Region, PERCENT OF BLACK RESIDENTS THAT WOULD NEED TO MOVE TO there is substantial variation EQUALIZE THEIR PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION IN EVERY in the extent of racial CENSUS TRACT IN THE REGION segregation. Baltimore City remains the most racially % Black Population Dissimilarity Index Index Change % segregated jurisdiction even Change 1990 - 2000 1990 2000 points though it has experienced a Carroll 17.0 38.4 31.5 -6.9 substantial reduction in its Howard 62.3 32.5 34.3 1.8 dissimilarity index since 1990. Anne Arundel 30.1 43.6 45.9 2.4 Baltimore County is the next Harford 27.1 48.9 47.8 -1.1 most-segregated, followed by Baltimore 76.6 64.1 63.4 -0.7 Harford, Anne Arundel, Howard and Carroll. Howard Baltimore City -4.0 75.3 69.0 -6.3 and Anne Arundel have Baltimore Metro 13.3 70.9 66.6 -4.3 become slightly more Source: Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education, UMBC 2002 . segregated during the last 10 Note: With counties that have small black populations the dissimilarity index is less meaningful. years, with an increase in the dissimilarity index by 1.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively. The pattern of racial segregation across the Region becomes clearer when mapped at census tract level. Many tracts in Baltimore City as well as the counties have become more diverse, with fewer now having 90% or more of one race than in 1990. Most of the "one race" tracts are either in the inner city of Baltimore or in the exurban and rural areas of the Region.

RACIAL DIVERSITY: BALTIMORE REGION 1990 AND 2000

1990 2000

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census Tiger Line data. U.S. Buraeu of the Census 1990 Summary File In Baltimore City, the percentage of blacks and other minorities increased in a number of census tracts that were all white in 1990, and some whites moved into tracts that previously were virtually all black. Diversification of the suburbs occurred as middle class black households relocated from the City. Although Howard County's white and black populations became slightly more segregated from each other during the 1990s, overall the county became more diverse due to the large increases in population for all major minority groups. Far fewer of its census tracts now house populations that are 90 percent or more of a single race or ethnicity.

18 ECONOMIC SEGREGATION

Although the level of racial segregation in the Baltimore Region declined slightly during the 1990s and diversity increased, economic segregation increased. The household income gap, measured in constant 1998 dollars, is widening between the more affluent and less wealthy jurisdictions. In 2000 median household income ranged from $34,000 in Baltimore City to $80,000 in Howard County. 262,000 of the Region's residents live in poverty.

Household Income: Baltimore Region 1989-1998 (in 1998 constant dollars)

$90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Region Anne Arundel Baltimore City Baltimore County Carroll Harford Howard

Source: Baltimore Regional Council

Percent of Population in Poverty: Baltimore Region

Anne Arundel, 24,894 (9%)

Baltimore County 54,891 (21%)

Baltimore City, 150,937 (58%) Carroll, 7,320 (3%)

Howard, 10,503 Harford, 13,841 (4%) (5%)

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, 2000

19 Three-fifths of the Region's poorest residents are concentrated in Baltimore City. This concentration of poverty in the City became more pronounced as the proportion of the land area consisting of high-poverty census tract increased during the 1990s. Neighborhoods bordering these high-poverty tracts in 1990 became poorer over the decade, spreading the problem over a wider area.

Baltimore County also has a substanital share of the Region’s poor, with one-fifth residing there. Such economic disparity on a regional level creates enormous problems for the poorer jurisdictions, reducing their fiscal capacity as well as affecting the overall quality of life for their residents. Baltimore Region’s poor people are becoming more and more isolated into certain areas and away from the mainstream regional economy and society.

THE FOREIGN BORN Foreign-born residents are an important component of regional population diversity. Although Baltimore was once a major port of entry for immigrants, it now has a relatively small foreign-born population when compared to other metropolitan areas and in recent years it has not been a major magnet for newly arriving immigrants.

PERCENT FOREIGN-BORN OF POPULATION OF EIGHT METROPOLITAN AREAS

Washington Boston Atlanta Philadelphia Baltimore Cleveland St.Louis Cincinnati

Population 4923153 3406835 4112198 5100931 2552994 2945831 2603607 1646395

Foreign-born 832016 508279 423105 357421 146128 135397 80945 42089

Foreign-born arrivalals 394859 222535 256563 145971 61275 48642 41073 21150 since 1990 % Foreign 16.9% 14.9% 10.3% 7.0% 5.7% 4.6% 3.1% 2.6% born

% Foregin- born that 47.5% 43.8% 60.6% 40.8% 41.9% 35.9% 50.7% 50.3% arrived since 1990

Source: U.S. Census 2000

20 The Washington and Boston Regions lead the other comparison regions, with 16.9 and 14.9 percent of their populations, respectively, having been born abroad. Atlanta is the only other comparison region with more than 10 percent foreign-born residents, but its foreign-born population grew the most rapidly during the 1990s, when three of every five of its foreign-born residents arrived. In contrast, only 5.7 percent of the Baltimore Region's 2000 population was foreign-born, and only two of every five of them arrived after 1990.

In 1998, the latest year for which figures METROPOLITAN DESTINATION OF IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO are available, the U.S. Immigration and THE U.S. IN 1998 Naturalization Service reported that the Metropolitan Area Number Admitted Washington Region attracted six times as many legal immigrants as the Baltimore Washington 25,639 Region. The Boston Region attracted Boston 12,854 three times as many. And, although the Philadelphia 9,197 14,057 foreign immigrants that arrived in Atlanta 7,504 Baltimore City during the nineties offset Baltimore 3,942 some of the people that left, most of the Cleveland 2,527 zip codes where immigrants settled are in St.Louis 1,992 the counties. Source: U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service, 1998 Where foreign-born residents choose to live in a region is one indicator of the economic opportunity of its localities. In the Baltimore Region, the overwhelming majority foreign-born residents live in the suburbs. Only one of five live in Baltimore City, scarcely more than the number residing in Howard County, which more than doubled its foreign-born population in the 1990s. Two of every four of the Region's 53,784 foreign-born residents live in Baltimore County, a two-thirds increase over 1990. Eight of the ten zip codes in the Region with the largest numbers of immigrants in 1998 were in Baltimore and Howard counties. Only two were in the City. RESIDENCE OF IMMIGRANTS IN THE BALTIMORE REGION: TOP TEN ZIPCODES, 1998

Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census Tiger Line Data U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

21 India and Korea were the most important FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION OF CITY AND COUNTIES countries of origin for legal immigrants to the Baltimore Region during the IN THE BALTIMORE REGION 2000 1990s. Nationals of these two countries switched places by the end of the decade, with India taking first place with Howard County, 9.2 percent of the Region's immigrants in 1998. No other country approached ten 28,113 percent in either 1990 or 1998, although 19% Anne Arundel Philippines, United Kingdom, Nigeria, County, 23,211 and parts of the former USSR each Harford County, provided five percent or more of the 16% 7,364 Region's immigrants in one or both of the years. In both years, however, four of 5% every ten immigrants came from a wide array of countries, none of which provided more than two percent of the total.

Baltimore City, Immigration 1998 Carroll County, 29,638, Nationality of Immigrants to the Baltimore Region 3,046, Baltimore County, 20% 2% India

53,784 9.2% Korea

8.3% other 38% Nigeria 42.8% 6.0%

5.2% China

Pakistan U.S. Bureau of the Census Ukraine Russia

Trinidad & Tobago Philippines

Jamaica Unkown CHANGING HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS Source: Immigration and Naturalization, 1998

Another significant change in the regional HOUSEHOLDS IN THE BALTIMORE REGION population is the Two or more Person Households growth and increased Single- Total number of Married diversity of house- Other Non- person Households Couple Family Family Household holds. The rate of Family household formations exceeded the rate of 1990 2000 Change 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 population growth in Anne Arundel 149,114 178,670 20% 63% 57% 13% 15% 6% 6% 18% 21% every county except Howard. In the City, Baltimore 268,280 299,877 12% 56% 49% 14% 17% 6% 6% 23% 27% the number of house- holds declined, but at Carroll 42,248 52,503 24% 70% 67% 10% 12% 4% 4% 16% 18% a slower rate than the Harford 63,193 79,667 26% 67% 62% 12% 14% 4% 4% 17% 20% decline in population. As the average Howard 68,337 90,043 32% 63% 60% 11% 13% 7% 6% 19% 21% house-hold size Baltimore City 276,484 257,996 -7% 33% 27% 29% 30% 7% 8% 31% 35% declines, the demand for housing becomes Region 867,656 958,756 10% 52% 48% 18% 19% 7% 7% 24% 27% disproportionate to population increases. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

22 The number of households is not only increasing, but many of them are different kinds of households. During the nineties a remarkable increase occurred in the number of non-traditional families - single parents with children, empty nesters, singles, and unrelated individuals. In Baltimore City three of every four households are non-traditional and, by 2000 married couples with children were, for the first time, the minority of households in Baltimore County as well as in the Region as a whole. Regionally, single-person households increased from 24 to 27 percent during the nineties. Non-family households of two or more unrelated individuals remained constant at seven percent. Other family households (e.g., single parent with children, empty nesters, and childless married couples) increased only by one percentage point, while the percentage of traditional family households declined from 52 to 48 percent. Most of the non-traditional families live in Baltimore City, the neighborhoods around the Beltway and in the I-795 corridor.

NON-TRADITIONAL FAMILIES IN THE BALTIMORE REGION, 2000

Percent Non-Traditional Families in Regional Planning

7% - 10%

11% - 25%

26% - 40%

41% - 60%

> 60%

Note: Non-traditional families are determined using the US Census Bureau definition of other familiy. Data Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census Tiger Line Data U.S. Bureau of the Census 2000 Summary File 1

MOBILITY AND MIGRATION

The focus on the net gain or loss in population often obscures one of the most important components of population change - flow of population into and out of a region and its localities.

Every jurisdiction in the Region attracted residents and each lost residents to other places during the last half of the 1990s as and immigrants resettled. All except Baltimore City had net gains. In 2000, 14 percent of Baltimore City residents that were five years old or older had lived somewhere else in 1995. Unlike all the other jurisdictions in the Region, the City experienced a net loss of about 7000 people a year as more than four people left the City for every three that entered. In annual terms, as the figure below shows, the 25,000 departures more than offset the 18,000 arrivals.

23 Baltimore County lost more residents each ANNUAL IN & OUT MIGRATION IN THE BALTIMORE REGION: year (27,000) than the POPULATION 5 YEARS & OLDER, 1995-2000 City but these losses were more than offset Howard Co. by an annual average in- migration of eleven Harford Co. newcomers for every nine departures. The Carroll Co. other counties had even more favorable ratios: Baltimore Co. seven in-migrants for every five people Anne Arundel leaving Anne Arundel, twice as many entered Baltimore City as left Carroll, nine newcomers for each -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 five departures in out-migrants in-migrants Harford, and 14 new residents for every nine Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census; annual estimates calculated by CUERE that moved from Howard.

THE CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE MEDIAN AGE OF POPULATION: EIGHT REGIONS 2000 The median age of the Baltimore Region's 2000 Median Age Percent 35-54 Rank 273 MAs population is the same as Boston's and slightly younger than Philadelphia's and Cleveland's, but Atlanta 32.9 31.3 6 older than the other four comparison regions, all Washington 34.9 32.3 4 of which had higher proportions of their foreign Cincinnati 35.1 30.0 131 born populations arriving in the last decade than St. Louis 36.0 30.1 115 Baltimore. The populations of Atlanta and Washington, which have been the fastest Baltimore 36.3 31.4 5 growing of the eight regions, have the lowest Boston 36.3 30.6 49 median ages. Both of these regions, and the Philadelphia 36.4 30.0 102 Cincinnati Region have lower median ages than Cleveland 37.3 30.0 102 the nation as a whole. U.S. 35.3

Source: U.S. Census

The age structure can have important implications for labor force participation and income. An older population has a lower labor force participation rate. A population with a large middle age cohort is likely to have a higher average income as these are the peak earning years. Among the comparison regions, Baltimore is exceeded only by Washington in the proportion of its population in these peak earning years, and it ranks fifth among the nation's 273 metropolitan areas. The age profile of the Baltimore Region, measured in 10-year cohorts, reveals that without a substantial migration of young adults into the Region, there are too few 20 to 29 year olds already in the area to replace the 30 to 39 year olds that will move into the next higher cohort during the current decade.

There are some significant differences in the age structure of racial groups. Black males outnumber black females younger than 20, but black females outnumber black males in all other age groups. White males outnumber white females in all cohorts except those 80 years and older. Black and white females are near parity in numbers in each cohort, but there are far fewer black males than white males. Females 60 and older outnumber males.

24 AGE PROFILE BY SEX AND ETHNICITY: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

80 and over FEMALES MALES

70 to 79

60 to 69

50 to 59

40 to 49 Age

30 to 39

20 to 29

10 to 19

0 to 10

100% 0 100%

White Black Asian Hispanic Source: U.S. Census The Baltimore Region's white and black age profiles have converged, even as the differences between the age profiles of black males and females have increased. Hispanics are the youngest population group, with high proportions of both sexes younger than 20 and the highest proportion of their population in the 20-39 cohort. A very small percentage of the Hispanic population is older than 60. The Asian population has the smallest proportions of both males and females younger than 20.

MALE AGE PROFILE: BALTIMORE REGION 2000 FEMALE AGE PROFILE: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

45% 40% 40% 35% 0-19 0-19 35% 20-39 30% 30% 20-39 40-59 25% 25% 40-59 20% 20% 60 & Over 60 & Over 15% 15%

10% 10%

5% 5%

0% 0% White Black Hispanic Asian White Black Hispanic Asian

Source: U.S. Census Source: U.S. Census

25 AGE PROFILES OF COUNTIES AND CITY POPULATIONS: BA LTIMORE REGION 2000

Baltimore City 60 & over 40-59 Howard County

20-39 Harford County

0-19 Carroll County

Baltimore County

Anne Arundel Percent

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Source: U.S. Census 2000 Among the jurisdictions of the Region, there are significant differences in age structure. Baltimore County has the largest share of residents (18.7%) 60 years and older. It also has the lowest percentages of young children and adolescents. Howard County has largest percentage of people aged between 40 and 59 years (30.2%), followed by Carroll (29.6%) and Harford (29.1%). Baltimore City, on the other hand has only 25% of its population in this high-earning cohort. Howard County also has the largest percentage of young children between 0 and 9 years old (16%).

Nearly one of every five white residents of the City is 65 or more years old, compared to just one of every nine blacks, six percent of Hispanics and seven percent of Asians. A similar proportion of the white population in Baltimore County (18%) that is 65 or older helps explain why the labor force participation rates for whites in both the City and county are low when compared to that of the minority populations. POPULATION 65 AND MORE YEARS OLD BY RACE AND COUNTY: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

Baltimore City

Howard County

Harford County

Carroll County

Baltimore County

Anne Arundel

0 2 4 6 8 101214161820 Percent Asian Hispanic Black White Source: U.S. Census 2000

26 WHAT A CHANGING POPULATION MEANS FOR THE BALTIMORE REGION Economic restructuring and the dispersion of employment centers in the suburbs accompanied population growth in the counties, and decline in the City. This has led to overall population diversification, and combined with increases in minority populations in the suburbs and a relatively small migration of the foreign born, changed the demographic makeup of the Region. Foreign immigrants appear increasingly attracted to the economic opportunities in the suburbs, rather than follow the historic pattern of settlement in the inner city. The City's loss of black population in the 1990s suggests that more affluent black households are moving away from traditional neighborhoods and declining manufacturing centers for suburban homes and jobs. Progress in racial and ethnic diversification in the Region has not been matched by reductions in economic segregation. The growing disparity in incomes among the Region's jurisdictions poses serious issues concerning access to housing and jobs for a significant part of the population. and growth should be understood in terms of the mobility and a flow of residents. The net loss of population in the City tends to obscure the fact that there is a strong flow of new residents into Baltimore, but not yet strong enough to offset the number leaving. An important area of further analysis will involve looking more closely at the characteristics of newcomers to each of the jurisdictions of the Region. Better understanding of the two-way flow of the migrating population can be a useful tool in fashioning strategies to stabilize communities, foster "smart growth," and increase the fiscal capacity of local governments and prevent people and neighborhoods from being left behind as the economy of the Region as a whole moves forward. Growth in the number of non-traditional families throughout the Region during the 1990s is likely to change the mix of services provided by local governments. Single people or couples without children require different public services than families with children. Increases in the number of female-headed households, which tend to be poorer than other households can stress education, child care, health, employment, and other social services. Another major challenge facing the Region is its aging population. There are a large number of adults over the age of 65 and an even larger cohort of baby boomers approaching retirement age. They will need significant resources to ensure a healthy and long-lasting retirement, placing a significant burden on the younger generation who will have to replace them as workers. This is a national problem and the Region along with other areas of the country will need to consider ways of resolving it.

To summarize, the changing population structure raises a number of important questions for the Region:

‰ What can be done in advance to offset the problem of an aging population?

‰ How can Baltimore City enhance its attraction to newcomers to the Region to stabilize its neighborhoods and improve its fiscal situation?

‰ What measures should be taken to reduce the extent of economic segregation and income disparities among the Region's localities?

‰ At a regional level, population growth and dispersal place the natural environment under stress. How can the Region prevent further environmental damage and the problems associated with urban sprawl?

27 THE LANDSCAPE AND ENVIRONMENT

The transformation of the economy and shifts in population have profoundly affected the landscape and environment of the Baltimore Region. The recent shift of people and jobs to the suburban counties altered land use, and increased stress on natural systems and urban infrastructure.

URBAN SPRAWL CHANGE IN POPULATION DENSITY: EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS 1982-1997 Although the population has Density 1997 Change in Change in grown during the last two Change in density (persons per population urbanized land decades, the average 1982-1997 sq. mile 1982-1997 1982-1997 population density per square mile has declined, as Atlanta 2.84 60.8% 81.5% -11.4% population grew more Washington 5.88 29.7% 47.0% -11.8% slowly than the rate of land Baltimore 4.81 12.7% 32.3% -14.8% consumption for new Boston 5.65 6.7% 46.9% -27.4% housing and other uses. The Baltimore Region's Cincinnati 3.77 10.4% 40.1% -21.2% population density de- Cleveland 4.03 0.4% 31.7% -23.8% creased less, however, than Philadelphia 5.03 7.0% 35.6% -21.1% most of the comparison St. Louis 3.89 6.0% 25.1% -15.3% areas, accord-ing to a United States 3.55 17.02% 47.14% -20.47% recent study published by Source: William Fulton, Rolf Pendall, Mai Nguyen, and Alicia Harrison Center on Urban & Metropolitan the Brookings Institution. Policy. Who Sprawls Most? How Growth Patterns Differ Across the U.S., Brookings 2001. Only the Atlanta and Washington regions, which had the highest rates of population growth, had lower rates of density change than Baltimore.

Much of this slower rate of density change and urbanization of the landscape can be attributed to strong local growth management policies such as Baltimore County's Urban-Rural Demarcation Line, effective land use regulations, and other "Smart Growth" initiatives designed to prevent urban sprawl,preserve farmland, and protect important natural resources and habitat. HOUSING DENSITY: BALTIMORE REGION 2000 The highest population densities remain in Baltimore City, notwithstanding substantial losses of population, where most census tracts have densities above 2500 housing units per square mile. Urban densities of 1000 to 2500 housing units per square mile extend into the suburbs of Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties, and also occur in Columbia and Annapolis.

The Baltimore Region's urban land use basically proceeds from a compact core within the beltway, moving along major transportation corridors north and northwest of Baltimore City.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER Line Data. U.S. Census Bureau Summary File 1

28 Prior to 1970 most housing was located within or just outside the beltway. In the ensuing thirty years, subdivision development extended farther and farther into the suburban counties. In the last two decades, it has sprawled across the Region's landscape into Harford, Carroll, and western Howard counties. Baltimore County, on the other hand, has been somewhat more successful in resisting sprawl, mainly due to its stricter planning and regulatory system. A mere three percent of the Region's land is devoted to high-density residential properties that are mostly located in Baltimore City and a few outlying areas such as Towson, Owings Mills and Columbia. Low-density residential development covers 10 percent of the Region's landscape. Commercial and institutional development occupies five percent. Commercial development tends to follow two patterns: stringing out along transportation corridors and scattering among residential areas. Industrial uses are more concentrated. Most occur around the harbor area and near I-95 in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Sixty percent of the Baltimore Region's land area was undeveloped by 1997, and consisted largely of land devoted to agriculture, forests, and with some barren and open urban land. Throughout the Region, the integrity of the undeveloped land is being threatened by the fragmented nature of residential developments.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT: BALTIMORE LAND COVER: BALTIMORE REGION 2000 REGION 1970 - 2000

Low-Density Barren/ Residential, Water, 14% Open Urban 10% Land, 2% Medium Forest/ Density Wetlands, Residential, 29% 7% High Density Agricultural, Residential, 29% 3% Commerical Industrial, Institutional, 2% 5%

A recent study for the Urban Dynamics Program of the U.S. Geologic Survey examined five dimensions of sprawl in the Washington, Atlanta, Boston and Baltimore Regions. Using measures based on census data and the USGS National Land Cover Data Base (NLCDB), the study found that the Baltimore Region's development was more centralized and had fewer major employment centers than the other three regions. It ranked 28 behind the Boston Region in producing a more continuous, rather than leap-frog pattern in its urban growth, but ranked third in average density and in the extent to which development was concentrated on a relatively small part of the total land area.

29 TRAFFIC CONGESTION AND THE ENVIRONMENT One consequence of the dispersion of development is heavy reliance on automobiles for transportation. The Baltimore Region ranks 29th nationally in the level of traffic congestion and fifth among the comparison regions. Its level of traffic congestion is similar to that of Philadelphia, but much lower than the levels experienced in the Washington, Atlanta, and Boston areas. Drivers in the Baltimore Region are stuck in traffic an average of 31 hours a year,(six hours more than in 1982) the equivalent of approximately four and a half working days.

Over half of the Region's 1470 freeway lane MOBILITY MEASURES FOR EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS miles are severely or extremely congested, Change: and travelers experience some level of 1999 1999 Percent of Congested Annual congestion during 57 percent of peak Roadway Annual Lane miles Person- travel periods. The severely or extremely Congestion Person- Hours congested arterial lane miles dropped Index Hours of of Delay Freeway Arterial from 56 percent in 1990 to 39 percent Rank Delay 1982-99 during the nineties. Seven hundred fewer 1982 1999 1982 1999 vehicle miles were traveled each day on Washington 3 46 5 40 65 60 75 arterial roads in 1999 than in 1990, Boston 5 42 12 15 60 60 75 suggesting that some drivers switched Atlanta 6 53 42 25 70 45 70 their routes from arterial roads to the Cincinnati 24 32 14 15 55 25 40 freeways. Baltimore 29 31 6 20 50 40 60 Philadelphia 30 26 8 15 35 45 65 St. Louis 38 44 24 20 50 30 65 LANE MILES OF SEVERE OR EXTREME Cleveland 44 20 12 5 40 15 50 Source: Transportation Institute. 2001 Annual Mobility Study, Tables A-2 1999 CONGESTION: Urban Mobility Conditions; Table A-5 Hours Change in Annual Delay Per Person 1982- BALTIMORE REGION 1982-1999 1999; A-14 Congested Lane-Miles of Roadway, Percent Peak Period; Table A-16 Roadway Congestion Index 60 50 Freeway congestion increased, however, as arterial 40 congestion declined. Despite adding 220 lane miles to the 30 freeway system during the period, freeway travel

Percent 20 increased by 5700 vehicle miles per day between 1982 to 10 1999. The greatest increase in the number of vehicle miles 0 traveled in the Region since 1981 occurred in Baltimore County, followed by Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Howard County has the greatest percentage increase Freeways Year Arterial Streets (174%), while Baltimore City had the lowest percentage increase (44%). Source: Texas Transportation Institute, 2001 Annual Mobility Study

MILLIONS OF ANNUAL VEHICLE MILES: THE BALTIMORE REGION

Annual VMT (Millions) Change in VMT Percent Change County/City 1980 1990 2000 81-90 90-00 81-00 81-90 90-00 81-00 Anne Arundel 2803 4006 5131 1293 1125 2418 48 28 89 Baltimore 4734 6451 7344 1752 893 2645 37 14 56 Carroll 567 886 1156 326 270 596 58 30 106 Harford 1121 1779 2105 685 326 1011 63 18 92 Howard 1155 1900 3156 750 1256 2006 65 66 174 Baltimore City 2577 3165 3568 694 403 1097 28 13 44

Source: Maryland Department of Transportation, State Highway Administration Highway Information Services Division, 2001

30 Commuting to work ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS OF COMMUTERS: BALTIMORE REGION is the primary reason This many Lived in: And commuted to work in: for increased travel. workers Baltimore Baltimore Anne DC/Other Except for residents Howard Harford Carroll of Howard and City County Arundel Regions Baltimore Carroll counties, the 305,489 66.6 21.6 5.1 2.8 0.6 0.3 3.2 majority of the City Baltimore Region's residents 355,939 34.7 51.1 4.9 4.2 1.3 0.9 2.9 worked in the County Anne jurisdiction where 217,676 10.2 5.0 65.4 3.9 0.3 0.1 15.1 they lived. Baltimore Arundel City (66.6%) and 107,890 Howard 10.7 8.4 11.4 36.4 0.2 0.9 32.0 Anne Arundel (65.4%) had the largest 93,087 Harford 15.8 24.0 2.3 0.9 55.7 0.3 1.0 percentages of their commuters locally 35,269 Carroll 10.8 22.4 4.2 7.2 0.4 47.8 7.2 employed. Just over half of Baltimore Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Special Programs Administration, John A. Volpe National County commuters Transportation Systems Center. 1993. Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and Its Major Metropolitan worked where they Areas, 1960-1990. Washington, DC: Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Information Management. live, but most journeys to work involved -to-suburb trips. Almost a third of Howard County workers commuted to the Washington area-slightly more than commuted elsewhere in the Baltimore Region. Fifteen percent of Anne Arundel County workers also commuted to the Washington Region. Data for 2000 will not become available until late 2002, but these basic patterns are expected to be more pronounced.

PERCENT USING TRANSIT*** Very few Baltimore Region commuters use public transportation Metro Region 1990 2000 when compared to those commuters in some of the other regions Boston 14.2 15.5 in this study. Nine out of ten suburban workers and two of every three Baltimore City workers commute by cars, trucks or vans. Washington 13.7 n.a. Of those driving to work, over three-fourths of them drive alone. Philadelphia 11.6 11 Only 6.3 percent of Baltimore Region commuters in 2000 used Baltimore 7.7 6.3 public transportation, a decline from 1990, compared to over 15 Cleveland 6.2 5.5 percent in Boston and 14 percent in the Washington Region. The Atlanta 4.7 4.2 number of miles traveled by Baltimore transit commuters increased, however, in the nineties, while it declined in Cincinnati 4.3 n.a. Washington and Philadelphia. The increased ridership occurred in St.Louis 3 1.9 Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties, but transit use declined Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, slightly in the City. Federal Transit Administration. Transit Profiles for 1998: The Thirty Largest Transit Agencies.

PASSENGER MILES ON TRANSIT

National Population Millions of Annual Passenger Miles Metro Region Rank 1994 1998 Boston 10 1,366.5 1,551.3 Washington 7 1,515.9 1,481.8 Philadelphia 4 1,333.3 1,223.1 Atlanta 12 591.2 745.3 Baltimore 19 530.0 547.2 Cleveland 21 270.2 291.6 Source: U.S Census,1990;. U.S. Census 2000 Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics Supplementary Survey Tables

31 Reliance on automobiles as the primary mode of transportation produces the major source of air pollution in the Baltimore Region. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that 79 percent of Carbon Monoxide (CO), 53 percent of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) that are precursors to Ozone, and 43 percent of volatile organic compounds (VOC) are produced by automobile exhaust emissions. They are also responsible for substantial quantities of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas. One way to measure air pollution is to consider the number of "code orange" Ozone days. A "code orange" day is when the EPA air quality standard of 0.085 parts per million for a one-hour period has been exceeded. Such air quality results in unhealthy conditions for children, the elderly and those with chronic lung problems. NUMBER OF UNHEALTHY OZONE DAYS Anne Arundel and Harford had the most "code orange" ozone days of all the counties in the Baltimore Region in both the periods measured. These two counties are downwind, respectively, from much of Washington and Baltimore, and as a result tend to have worse air quality than other parts of the Region, which may actually produce more pollutants than these counties.

Overall, the Baltimore Region ranks second among the comparison regions in unhealthy ozone days that can be damaging to sensitive individuals.

OZONE AIR QUALITY 1997-1999 Days Unhealthy for Sensitive Metropolitan Groups: Region Highest Regional Count

Atlanta 118 Maryland Department of the Environment, Air Quality Data Report, 1999 Baltimore 110 Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions are one of the largest Washington 78 sources of nitrogen pollution in the , upsetting the chemical balance of nutrients used by Philadelphia 55 aquatic plants and animals. The excess nitrogen St. Louis 46 accelerates eutrophication, which leads to Oxygen depletion and reduced fish and shellfish populations. Cleveland 42 Cincinnati 37 Boston 32

Maryland Department of the Environment, Air Quality Data Report, 1999 NOx emissions include Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), the reddish-brown highly reactive gas formed in the ambient air through oxidation of Nitric Oxide (NO). Short-term exposures of less than three hours to low levels of NO2 may lead to changes in airway responsiveness and lung function for people with respiratory illnesses, and increases in respiratory illnesses in young children. Long-term exposure can increase susceptibility to respiratory infection and permanent alternations in the lung. NO2 and particulate nitrates are among the pollutants that cause visual impairment in urban areas. Together with Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), they react to form acid rain, fog, snow or dry particles.

Nitrogen Dioxide and Sulfur Dioxide are measured at only two monitoring stations in the Baltimore Region, at Essex and Old . Both stations report levels below the National Air Quality Standard of

32 100 micrograms per cubic meter of air.

NITROGEN DIOX IDE ANNUAL ARITHMETIC AVERAGE: BA LTIMORE MONITORING STA TIONS 1995-1997

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Micrograms per Cubic Meter 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Essex Old Town

Source: Maryland Department of Environment. 1999. Air Quality Report

Particulate matter- dust, dirt soot, smoke and liquid droplets directly emitted in the air by sources such as industrial uses, power plants, automobiles and natural wind blown dust - is a major cause of visibility impairment. It is harmful to people with respiratory or cardio-vascular disease, the elderly, and children. Particulate pollution increased from 1995 through 1999 in the Baltimore Region. EPA standards for PM-10, particles smaller than 10 micrometers in diameter, specify that the annual arithmetic mean should not exceed 50 micrograms per cubic meter of air and that there should be no more than one day in a year with a 24-hour concentration of PM-10 greater than 150 micrometers per cubic meter of air. This form of air pollution has generally increased since 1995.

ANNUAL AVERAGE AIRBORNE PARTICULATE (PM-10) POLLUTION: BA LTIMORE REGION 1995-1999

35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Micrograms per cubic meter 0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Source: Maryland Department of Environment. 1999. Air Quality Report

33 WATER QUALITY

Water quality is one of the most serious problems associated with the urban development. Urbanization increases the amount of impervious surface in a region. Rooftops, sidewalks, roads, parking lots, and other asphalt, concrete, brick, and stone surfaces, combined with storm water piping systems that bypass the natural hydrologic cycle increase the amount and velocity of storm runoff and reduce the return of water to aquifers and groundwater. The results of increasing imperviousness include increased erosion of stream banks, sedimentation, and more severe floods. Impervious surfaces also store many types of pollutants, which are subsequently washed into streams by storm water runoff, severely degrading water quality.

As a general rule, when impervious surface in a IMPERVIOUS SURFACES BY WATERSHED: watershed exceeds 10 percent of the land cover, BALTIMORE REGION. serious flooding, erosion, sedimentation, and groundwater problems follow. The highest percentage of impervious surfaces occurs in and around Baltimore City, stretching northwest into Baltimore County. There are also some sections of Harford County that have large amounts of impervious surfaces. The Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) is an effective way to measure pollution associated with impervious land cover. Applying the IWI to the Baltimore Region, it indicates that most of the watersheds in the Baltimore Region have "Less Serious Water Quality but High Vulnerability" to degradation.

While the watersheds in the Upper Western Shore, Lower Patuxent, and Northern Potomac drainage basins are rated as having less serious water quality- low vulnerability, none of the Region's basins has better than a "3" rating on the 6-point IWI scale and the vast majority of watersheds are highly vulnerable to degradation. All of the Region’s major supply Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources WATERSHED INTEGRITY: BALTIMORE REGION reservoirs are located in vulnerable watersheds.

INDEX OF WATERSHED INTEGRITY 1 Better Quality - Low Vulnerability 2 Better Quality - High Vulnerability 3 Less Serious Quality - Low Vulnerability 4 Less Serious Quality - High Vulnerability 5 More Serious Quality - Low Vulnerability 6 More Serious Quality - High Vulnerability

Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources; National Watershed Assessment Program, USGS

34 One positive feature, however, is that the Region's CONDITION OF WATERSHEDS: watersheds are generally in better condition than EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS those of the comparison regions, except for Washington D.C. and Cincinnati which share the Region IWI overall IWI rating of "4." Baltimore 4 Cincinnati 4 D.C. 4 Cleveland 5 CONDITION OF STREAM MILES St. Louis 5 IN THE BALTIMORE REGION Atlanta 6 Good Boston 6 Poor 28% Philadelphia 6

40% Source: National Watershed Assessment Program, USGS

Another indicator of water quality is the Fair condition of streams in an area. The Maryland 32% Department of Natural Resources measures the quality of streams using the Fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), which measures the capacity of Source: Maryland Department of Natrual Resources a stream to support an abundant and diverse aquatic population. Only 28 percent of all the Fish IBI Rating: Percent of Stream stream miles in the Baltimore Region are rated Watershed Miles as having good water quality. Forty percent are considered to be in poor condition. Good Fair Poor

Gunpowder 25 41 23 FISH INDEX OF BIOTIC INTEGRITY: BALTIMORE Patapsco 35 25 30 REGION WATERSHEDS Bush 42 26 32

Lower Susquehanna 35 30 35

Middle Poromac 25 29 46

Patuxent 18 30 51

West Chesapeake 25 20 55

Among the major watersheds of the Region, the Gunpowder, and the upper reaches of the Patuxent, where there are less impervious surfaces, have "very good" water quality. The Little Patuxent and lower reaches of the , Gwynn's Fallas, , and , Magothy, Severn, and harbor watersheds, all have poor to very poor water quality. The majority of stream miles in the watersheds with high percentages of impervious surfaces have a poor Fish IBI rating.

Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources

35 MODELED PHOSPHOROUS LOADING: MODELED NITROGEN LOADING: BALTIMORE REGION BALTIMORE REGION

Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources Nitrogen is not only a serious concern in air pollution, it is a major water pollutant, which along with Phosphorous, contribute to eutrophication of the Chesapeake Bay. The principal sources of these contaminants in the Region's waters are municipal and industrial sewage, septic tank effluent, animal waste, fertilizers, and decaying plants washed into streams. BROWNFIELDS One of the consequences of restructuring of the regional INDUSTRIAL REDEVELOPMENT SITES: BALTIMORE REGION economy and the relocation of economic activity from central areas to the suburbs was the creation of a large number of abandoned or underused industrial and commercial sites where expansion or redevelopment is complicated by real or perceived environmental contamination. There are now 279 of these "brownfields" in the Baltimore Region. Many of them contain derelict structures and environmental hazards. The Region has 10 federal Superfund sites, identified by EPA as containing major environmental hazards potentially affecting local ecosystems and the health of those that have had substantial exposure to them. Over half of all the Region's brownfields, (146 of them), and three of the Superfund sites are in Baltimore Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources City.

36 Brownfields represent problems as well as opportunities for the Region. In their current state they are potential risks for health and safety. By redeveloping brownfields, the locality can once again use existing infrastructure, create jobs and reduce urban sprawl.

WHAT ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES MEAN TO THE BALTIMORE REGION The diffusion of jobs and people throughout the Baltimore Region profoundly changed the natural environment. The increase in impervious surfaces accompanying residential and commercial development produced deterioration in the water quality of most of the Region's streams. Increased reliance on automobiles generated by urban growth and dispersion offset improvements in air quality resulting from better technologies. Further improvements to the transportation system will need to be considered in terms of their impacts on the Region's air and water resources.

More effective growth management can ameliorate, and in some cases, reverse, some of these adverse environmental effects. Due to effective local land use policies and initiatives such as Smart Growth the Baltimore Region is doing better than comparison regions in avoiding some aspects of urban sprawl. However, its local governments need to work harder to prevent further dispersion of development and the fragmentation of remaining farmlands and forests.

Economic restructuring has led to the abandonment of industrial and manufacturing buildings and lands, especially in certain areas of Baltimore City. These brownfields are a health and safety hazard to the surrounding communities but, with redevelopment, could prove economically beneficial.

The environmental indicators presented in this section point to a number of issues for regional policy makers: ‰ How can the Region improve its land use practices, community design, and transportation systems to ease reliance on automobiles?

‰ What can be done to encourage development practices that produce less impervious surface and to foster land management practices that reduce loadings of nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment into the Region's streams and the Chesapeake Bay?

‰ What can be done to redevelop underutilized land and clean-up hazardous brownfields, thus stimulating local economic development and elimination of health risks for the affected communities?

37 QUALITY OF LIFE AND PUBLIC SERVICES

An important aspect of living in any community is the degree to which amenities, natural attractions and public services enhance the quality of life of its residents. This section of the report provides indicators of the quality of the Baltimore Region's natural and cultural amenities, educational opportunities, public health and safety, and distribution of the costs of public services.

AMENITIES AND NATURAL ATTRACTIONS

Residents of the Baltimore Region live in the midst of an extraordinary natural environment bordered by the Chesapeake Bay, with hundreds of miles of frontage along the Bay and its tributaries. Extensive State and local parks follow Bay tributaries into coastal estuaries and upland forests, providing miles of hiking and biking trails and a great variety of flora and fauna for those who enjoy the outdoors.

PARKS AND PROTECTED LANDS IN THE The Baltimore Region ranks third among the BALTIMORE REGION comparison regions in the ratio of regional parks to its population. Overall, there are 649,503 acres of Federal, State and local parkland and protected areas, including 419,149 acres of land protected by conservation or agricultural easements - most of it in Baltimore, Harford, and Carroll Counties. The average straight-line distance between a residence and a public park is only 1.4 miles.

Harford and Carroll Counties have made substantial use of agricultural easements, although Carroll County in particular has a relatively weak system for managing the pressures of urbanization. Baltimore County has one of the State's most effective growth management programs, including 50-acre rural , an Urban-Rural Demarcation Line, and a strong watershed management system. It also has an active land trust that has been successful in securing conservation easements on farms in environmentally sensitive areas of the County. Source: Maryland Department of Natural Resources Technology Toolbox

Aside from the parks and protected areas to enjoy, the region is rich in cultural, educational, and recreational amenities, including outstanding universities and colleges, museums, libraries and ethnic organizations.

The region as a whole contains thirty museums, including the National Aquarium and the newly renovated in Baltimore City. While it is difficult to rank the quality of a region's cultural experience, among the other comparison regions in this study, the Baltimore Region has the third highest ratio of museums to population. With 31 theaters for the performing arts, including the Meyerhoff Symphony Hall and Morris Mechanic Theater, only the Washington Region offers more.

38 Amenities in the Baltimore Region

Source: Center for Urban Environmental Research and Education

CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL AMENITIES BY NUMBER OF PEOPLE PER VENUE Baltimore Washington Boston Cincinnati Atlanta Philadelphia St. Louis Cleveland Population 2,512,431 5,095,639 5,819,100 1,979,292 4,112,431 6,188,463 2,603,607 2,945,831 Museums 30 92 30 34 15 47 18 33 Rank 3 1 7 2 8 5 6 4 Theaters 31 71 27 20 20 26 17 15 Rank 2 1 7 3 6 8 4 5 Parks 16 12 29 18 20 14 6 19 Rank 3 6 5 1 4 8 7 2 Sports Venues 11 7 10 9 10 12 4 7 Rank 2 8 6 1 3 5 7 4 Public Golf Courses 10 24 32 40 18 23 34 10 Rank 6 4 3 1 5 7 2 8 Colleges/Universities 21 30 40 32 35 32 5 33 Rank 4 6 5 1 3 7 8 2 Libraries 77 92 144 60 82 141 58 104 Rank 2 8 4 3 7 5 6 1 Source of Data: Citysearch.com. Rank is assigned based upon the ratio of amenities to population for each region. The Region ranks second, after Cleveland, in the availability of public libraries for its residents. In sports, Baltimore's Camden Yards, Ravens , and Pimlico Race Track top a list of 11 major facilities, putting it in second place among the eight regions in the number of sports venues per resident. The only amenity in which it falls near the end of the peer group is public golf courses, where it ranks sixth. ACADEMIC RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Of the eight regions, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Atlanta offer a higher number of colleges and universities per resident than the other regions. However, the Baltimore Region leads Boston's Harvard and MIT

39 as well as the rest of the nation's Academic Research and Development universities in research grants, with over Top 50 Research Research Dollars Universities* $1.1 billion dollars in total research and Instiution (thousands) development expenditures in the year 2000 & for The and the Baltimore $1,125,502 2 UM,Baltimore University of Maryland, Baltimore. Harvard Boston $768,109 7 University & MIT Johns Hopkins, considered one of the top Tech & medical research institutions in the Atlanta $510,581 3 Emory country, received $368 million in federal University of and private funding for its medical school Philadelphia $430,389 1 and an additional $180 million for its school Washington of public health in 2001. The University of St. Louis $362,216 2 University Maryland, Baltimore is now not far behind Hopkins, bringing in $305 million in Washington UM, College Park $252,429 6 research funding the last fiscal year. Much Case Western of this funding directly helps the regional Cleveland $193,057 1 Reserve economy; all of it builds the area's intellectual capital. Cincinnati none 1

Source: NSF WebCASPAR Database System. Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. *Only universities classified as extensive are included. HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT The capacity of a region to EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ADULTS: compete in an economy that EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS increasingly relies on non- Percent Completed High Percent with Bachelor’s manual skills and knowledge is School degree or more enhanced by such advancements in intellectual capital. However, Washington 90.0 42.0 the future of the Baltimore Boston 87.9 41.1 Region also depends on its public schools and other educational Atlanta 89.0 31.4 institutions to develop the "human capital" necessary for all Baltimore 85.4 30.1 its residents to participate in the Philadelphia 87.3 29.0 economic mainstream. The shift from manufacturing to services Cincinnati 85.8 28.8 requires better educated Cleveland 88.7 28.5 workers with higher skills and greater capacity to adapt to St. Louis 85.5 24.5 changing technologies and Source: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey March 2000 detailed Tables economic organizations. The Baltimore Region ranks fourth among the eight comparison regions in the percentage of its residents that have attained a bachelors degree or higher, but a lower percentage of its residents have completed high school than in any other of the seven regions. Although region-wide percentages are important, to examine fully differences in educational performance indicators one must look at the Region's local school systems. Disparities in high school drop-out rates among the counties and the City suggest that many young people in certain areas of the Region will not be adequately prepared to compete in today's economy. In 1993, Baltimore City schools' drop-out rate was three times the statewide average. By 2000, the rate had fallen by almost a third, but was still more than double the dropout rate in Anne Arundel County, which had the next highest rate.

40 DROP-OUT RATE FOR BALTIMORE REGION SCHOOL SYSTEMS 1993-2000

20 18 16 14 12 10

Percent 8 6 4 2 0 Anne Balt. Balt. Carroll Harford Howard Region MD Arundel City Co.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: Maryland State Department of Education

Until recently, the Maryland School Performance Assessment Program (MSPAP) has been used to measure school performance. All counties and the city of Baltimore improved MSPAP scores from 1993 to 2000. The city showed the greatest percentage increase, but only one student in five scored satisfactory or above in 2000, and Howard County had the only school system in the Region in which more than 60 percent of students scored satisfactory or above on the MSPAP tests for third, fifth and eighth graders. Thus the performance gap remained wide between Baltimore City schools and all county schools.

THIRD, FIFTH AND EIGHTH GRADE PERFORMANCE ON MSPAP: BALTIMORE REGION SCHOOL SYSTEMS 1993-2000

70 60 50 40 30 above 20 10 Percent Satisfactory or 0 MD Anne Balt. City Balt. Carroll Harford Howard Arundel Cnty. County

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: Maryland State Department of Education

41 Ultimately, educational performance is closely tied to an area's economic and social health. A substantial body of research indicates that poverty plays a large role in a student's academic performance. As a result schools in poor neighborhoods with large proportions of disadvantaged students start with a handicap in comparison to schools in more affluent neighborhoods. Comparing the unadjusted scores of schools in wealthy and poor neighborhoods ignores this reality.

The below chart measures performance of elementary schools in the Baltimore Region in terms of student scores on MSPAP (averaged over 2 years), taking student poverty into account.

Expected Performance of Schools

3rd Grade Reading

Average of 1999-2000 & 2000-2001 school years

100

School Districts 80 Baltimore City

Howard 60 Harford

Carroll B C 40 A Baltimore % satisfactory on MSPAP County

20 Anne Arundel

Expected 0 Performance 0 20 40 60 80 100

% free lunch

The vertical axis is the percentage of students in a school scoring satisfactory or above on the MSPAP third grade reading test (being able to read well is generally accepted as a necessary skill for academic success). The horizontal axis measures the percentage of students in a school receiving free or reduced lunch, which is a common (though not perfect) measure of poverty in a school. Each colored marker represents a school's MSPAP scores and the percentage of its students on free or reduced lunch.

The line running through the markers shows the statistical relationship between free lunch and MSPAP scores. As the percentage of students on free or reduced lunch in increases, a school's MSPAP scores decrease. This line represents how a school is expected to perform (other things being equal) given its percentage of students in poverty. In the Baltimore Region, the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunches explains approximately 60 percent of a school's MSPAP score. If free and reduced lunch were a perfect predictor of school performance, all the schools would fall on the line. A school that falls significantly above the line is performing better than would be expected given the percentage of students on free or reduced lunch, while a school below the line is performing worse that expected. This method provides a way of evaluating and comparing school performance that goes beyond comparing unadjusted MSPAP scores.

42 For example, about 40% of the students in schools A, B, and C scored satisfactorily on the MSPAP. However, if one looks at each school's performance relative to its expected performance, school A, with over 90 percent of its students eligible for free or reduced lunch, is doing better than expected. School B, with almost no disadvantaged students, is doing worse than expected, and the performance of school C, with about 35 percent of its students receiving free or reduced lunches, falls right on the line.

Baltimore City schools tend to be concentrated in the bottom right corner indicating high levels of poverty and low performance. Howard county schools tend to be concentrated in the left toward the top of the graph, indicating low levels of poverty and higher performance. But in every jurisdiction, some schools perform better and some perform worse than would be predicted by their percentages of disadvantaged students.

PER-PUPIL WEALTH: BALTIMORE REGION PER-PUPIL EXPENDITURES: BALTIMORE REGION SCHOOL SYSTEMS 2000 SCHOOL SYSTEMS 2000

$7,500 $350,000

$300,000 $7,000 $250,000

$200,000 $6,500 $150,000

$100,000 $6,000 $50,000 $0 $5,500 MD Anne Balt. Balt. Carroll Harford Howard MD Anne Balt. Balt. Carroll Harford Howard Arundel City Cnty. County Arundel City County. County

Source: Maryland Department of Education Source: Maryland Department of Education Local resources to improve educational performance across the Region vary widely. Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard Counties have more than twice the per-pupil wealth of Baltimore City. This disparity affects local capacity to fund an educational system that can prepare students for participation in the mainstream of the regional economy. Local government must rely on large amounts of State and Federal aid to correct this imbalance. Such aid for instance, enables Baltimore City to spend slightly more per pupil than Howard County, with this higher level of expenditure reflecting in part large numbers of special education and other students in the City schools who need extra resources. HOUSING AFFORABILITY The percentage of the Region's housing stock that is affordable (requires no more than a third of income) for a median-income family has increased over the last ten years from less than 60% in 1991 to more than 70% in 2000. HOUSING OPPORTUNITY INDEX: BALTIMORE REGION

PERCENT OF HOUSING STOCK AFFORABLE FOR MEDIAN INCOME FAMILY: BALTIMORE REGION

80

60

40 Percent 20

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: National Association of Home Builders. Housing Affordability Index

43 Housing in the Baltimore Region it is more affordable than in the Boston, Philadelphia, and slightly more affordable than the Atlanta Regions. But it is slightly more difficult to afford a place to live in the Baltimore Region than in St. Louis, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Washington, D.C.

PERCENT OF HOUSING STOCK AFFORDABLE FOR MEDIAN INCOME FAMILY: EIGHT METROPOLITAN REGIONS

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Percent 20% 10% 0% Boston Atlanta St. Louis Cleveland Baltimore Cincinnati Philadelphia Washington

Source: National Association of Home Builders

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES: BALTIMORE REGION

Source: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER Line Data. U.S. Census Bureau Summary File 1.

However, when looking at the property values within the Region, there is considerable variation between jurisdictions. The average value of Howard County homes exceeds $150,000, whereas most of the homes in Baltimore City are valued below $50,000 and the City has more of the Region's homes that are valued between $50,000 and $99,000 than any other jurisdiction.

44 Although property values may be lower in Baltimore City, this does not mean housing is affordable for its residents. Another way of measuring affordability of housing is the percentage of owners and renters that spend 30 percent or more of their income on housing. Spending less than 30 percent of one's income on rent or mortgage is generally regarded as a fair measure of affordability.

PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING 30% OR MORE OF INCOME FOR HOUSING

45

40

35

30

25

20 Percent 15

10

5

0 Baltimore Baltimore Anne Carroll Harford Howard Region City County Arundel

owners renters

Regionally, 36 percent of renters and 22 percent of owners spent more for housing in 1999 than is generally regarded as a reasonable or "affordable" percentage of the household budget. The figure above shows that the affordability problem is worst in the City where two of every five renters (41%) spend 30 percent or more of their incomes on housing. Slightly more than one of every four Baltimore City homeowners (26%) spend above the recommended level.

There is little variation among the counties where roughly one of every five households spends 30 percent or more of income for housing. While a smaller percentage of suburban than City renters strain to meet housing costs, only in Baltimore and Carroll counties do fewer than a third of renters devote more than 30 percent of their incomes to housing.

Disparities among jurisdictions in the amount of household income devoted to housing reflect the patterns of economic segregation in the Region. A higher proportion of the renters that pay 30 percent or more of their incomes for housing live in Baltimore City than in other jurisdictions. THE HEALTH OF THE REGION'S RESIDENTS There is substantial disparity in the overall health of the Premature Deaths (before age 65): Baltimore Region 2000 Region's black and white population. Blacks have higher 200 rates of premature death than 180 whites. Premature mortality 160 indicates the overall health of a 140 120 population by measuring the 100 years of life lost by people who 80 die before reaching a certain 60 40 Per 1000 People age, such as the common Lost Life of Years 20 retirement age of 65. Black 0 men in Baltimore City and all MD Region Anne Balt city Balt. Carroll * Harford Howard the counties of the Region have Arundel County a higher rate of premature death than all other races, and Total White M ale Black Male White Female Black Female more than twice as high as the rate for white women. Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. *too few deaths in some categories to count.

45 Metropolitan Region Infant Deaths per 1,000 live births Another important public health Boston 5.7 indicator is the infant mortality rate. St. Louis 8.4 The Baltimore-Washington Altanta 8.5 Philadelphia 8.9 Consolidated Metropolitan Area has Baltimore-Washington* 9.2 the third highest rate of infant Cincinnati 9.3 mortality among the eight Cleveland 10.1 comparison regions. United States 8.0

Source: U.S. Census, State and Metropolitan Area Data Book 1997-98, Table B-4. * Separate data for the Baltimore PMSA not reported

In the Baltimore Region, the infant mortality rate is higher in all counties for blacks than for all other races. This suggests disparities in the availability of pre-natal and post-natal care.

INFANT MORTALITY: BALTIMORE REGION 2000

25 All rac es White Black

20

15

10

5

Deaths per 1000 Live Births 0 M a r y la nd Ba lt imor e Baltimore Baltimore Anne Carroll Howard Harford Region City County Arundel

Source: Maryland Governor's Office for Children, Youth and Families

CRIME Of the eight comparison metropolitan areas, the Baltimore Region has the third highest rates of property and violent crime.

CRIMES PER 100,000 POPULATION: SEVEN METROPOLITAN REGIONS

14,000 Violent Crime Property Crime 12,000 10,000

8,000 6,000

4,000 2,000

0 St. Louis Atlanta Baltimore Washington Cleveland Philadelphia Boston Source: FBI Uniform Crime Report-2000 Table 6

46 CRIMES PER 100,000 POPULA TION:BA LTIMORE REGION 1990-2000

7000

6000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Property Violent Juvenile Drug

Source: Maryland State Police Uniform Crime Report 2001

However, as with other areas of the United States, the overall crime rate across the Region as a whole fell during the 1990s. Crime rates in all categories have been on a downward trend throughout the Region since 1995. However, as with other indicators of the quality of life, there are considerable differences in these rates among the jurisdictions of the Region.

Property, violent and drug crime rates are substantially higher in Baltimore City than in the counties. Of the suburban counties, Baltimore County has the highest rates for all crimes, although Anne Arundel is not far behind, especially with regard to juvenile crime. In fact, there is more similarity between jurisdictions with regard to juvenile crime rates than with any other type of crime. However, youth crime rates, measured in arrests of juveniles, have generally declined in recent years, although there was as one year increase in Howard County in 2000.

CRIMES PER 100,000 POPULATION: BALTIMORE REGION JURISDICTIONS 2000

8000 Property Violent Juvenile Drug 7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Baltimore Baltimore Anne Howard Carroll Harford City Arundel

Source: Maryland State Police Uniform Crime Report 2001

FISCAL CAPACITY As the data on schools, health and crime indicate, the quality of life for residents of the Baltimore Region depends to a considerable extent on where they live. The quality of important public services

47 such as schools, public safety and health care is related to the ability of local government to provide and improve these vital public services. With heavy reliance on property and income taxes to provide these services, the incomes of residents and the value of residential and commercial property in a jurisdiction are directly related to its capacity to provide high quality services. In the Baltimore Region, the City has the weakest fiscal capacity of all jurisdictions.

CAPACITY OF BALTIMORE REGION LOCAL GOVTS. TO RAISE THE REGIONAL AVERAGE IN TAXES PER CAPITA, 1999

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Howard Anne Arundel Baltimore Carroll Baltimore Harford City

Source: Calculated from Census of Governments revenue data and U.S. Census population data.

If every person in the Baltimore Region were taxed the same percentage of personal income, Howard County, with a per capita income of $33,000, would collect 26% more revenue than the average. Harford County, with a per capita income of $28,000 would collect 15% less than the average. Baltimore City has the lowest per capita income ($27,000), but would do slightly better than Harford because it has more people to tax. At the extremes, Howard County can raise 41% more revenue than Harford County can with the same tax rate. Similarly, there is a 47% difference in the per capita tax capacity between Baltimore City and Howard County.

LOCAL FISCAL BURDEN AS A PRECENT OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME Property taxes provide an Revenue average $3 of every $5 of local Average Local Median Burden (1% taxes collected in the Baltimore Property Expenses/Households Household of Region as a whole. Baltimore tax rate 1995 - 2000 Income Household City residents have the highest Income) tax rates of all jurisdictions and Anne Arundel 3,552 63,600 5.6 $2.46 the heaviest tax burden as a Baltimore County 3,435 51,700 5.66 $2.86 percentage of median Carroll 2,991 60,000 5.0 $2.62 household income in the Region. Harford 3,154 58,400 5.4 $2.73 In Baltimore City, property tax Howard 4,819 75,500 6.4 $2.61 accounts for 68 percent of local Baltimore City 3,369 34,500 9.8 $5.82 tax revenue while it provides 62 Source: Local fund expenditures from Maryland Manual, 2001; Average expenditure per percent of Harford County and household calculated from U.S. Census 2000 and Median Income estimates for 2000 by Baltimore 59 percent of Carroll County tax Metropolitan Council, 2001 revenue. Because high incomes in Howard County allow more revenue to be collected from income taxes, property taxes can remain relatively low, producing only 55 percent of county revenues. During 1995 to 2000, Howard County spent 41 percent more per household than the City but with a total tax burden that was a third lower and a property tax rate less than half that of the City's.

48 Although its property tax rate is higher than other jurisdictions in the Region, Baltimore City's ability to raise local revenue is limited by the fact that the concentration of government, universities, hospitals, cultural and other non-profit institutions in the City removes a disproportionate amount of high-value land from its property tax rolls. A third of Baltimore City's property value is exempt from taxation.

TAXABLE AND EXEMPT PROPERTY: BALTIMORE REGION, FY 2000

Exempt Taxable 100.0%

80.0%

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0% Anne Baltimore Carroll Harford Howard Baltimore Arundel County City

Source: Maryland Department of Assessment and Taxation

WHAT CHANGES IN QUALITY OF LIFE AND PUBLIC SERVICES MEAN FOR THE REGION

The effects of changes in the Region's economy, population and landscape are reflected in the indicators of the quality of life and public services. Several factors stand out: (1) the high quality of some of the Region's natural and institutional assets-especially its parks, open spaces, and access to water; (2) the strength of its institutions of higher learning and many of its cultural institutions; and the general affordability of its housing stock.

At the same time, there are areas for serious concern. The weak performance of elementary and secondary schools suggests the Region is not adequately preparing its future labor force for the levels of productivity and flexibility that will be demanded of a knowledge-based economy, which can dull the edge the Region could achieve, building on its strengths in higher education, health, and business services. It will be important to devise a regional strategy to improve school performance across the board The recent passage of the Thornton Commission's school equalization reform addresses some of the disparity in performance between poor and rich districts by directing more resources to districts with greater needs. The gaps in performance are substantial, however, and may require an even greater effort to close it. The uneven distribution of high and low performing schools across the Region is especially troubling.

There also remain serious disparities in the affordability of housing and while average housing prices indicate improving affordability, it is clear that affordable housing is not widely available, exacerbating the spatial mismatch of housing and jobs. Moreover, there appears to be a serious problem in the rental housing market, with a high percentage of households paying more than 30 percent of their incomes for rent. The persistence of racial disparities are reflected in the health indicators. And while the crime rate has fallen in all jurisdictions, it remains a major deterrent to revitalization of some sectors of the Region.

49 What is clear from the fiscal indicators is the wide gap among the Region's jurisdictions in their capacity to provide the high quality services increasingly demanded by residents and firms that are in the new economic mainstream. To preserve and maintain the natural environment that is such an attraction for these residents and businesses, urban services will have to be enhanced to attract newcomers to the already urbanized areas of the Region. As the Thornton Commission approach makes clear, some form of redistribution of revenue across the Region, and even the State, may be required.

50 Methodology and Sources

Economy:

Employment Growth: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Accounts Data. Employment Growth Regional Comparisons: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Accounts Data. Distribution of Employment by Sector: Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Baltimore Region's Fastest Growing Occupations: County Business Patterns, 2002. Maryland Department of Labor and Licensing Regulations, 2002. Labor Force Participation: Bureau of Labor Statistics "Geographic Profiles of Employment and Unemployment 1999" Table 24. Calculations from the 1990 census using the following formula: LFP= employed citizens + unemployed citizens divided by the population over 16. Information back to 1970 received from the MD Department of Planning State was also used. Worker Occupations: U.S. Census QT-03. "Profile of Selected Economic Characteristics: 2000." Data for Baltimore Region includes only Baltimore City, Anne Arundel County, and Baltimore County.

Population:

Population change: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000. Population: City and Counties: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 and 2000 U.S.. Immigration: "Number Admitted" is from the United States Immigration and Naturalization Service, "Fiscal Year 1998 Statistical Yearbook" http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/ybpage.htm. "Nationality of Immigrants" is from the INS Public Use Tapes, which can be found at http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/PubList.htm. Calculated by CUERE by selecting immigrants with zip codes from the Baltimore Region. The destination of the immigrants is determined by their declared intended residence upon entering the United States. Includes only legal immigrants. Dissimilarity Index: The regional comparisons were from Edward L. Glaeser and Jacob L. Vigdor "Racial Segregation in the 2000 Census: Promising News" Brookings Institute April 2001. Inter-regional comparison calculated by CUERE using 2000 Census data and the following formula: D= Σ t|p-P| /2TP (1-P)] t=total pop of tract, p=minority proportion of tract, T=total pop of county, P=minority proportion of county. Both charts measure segregation of blacks from all non-blacks. While it would be useful to calculate the degree of segregation amongst a variety of racial group, the dissimilarity index is designed to be used with dichotomous variables. Economic Segregation: Household Income data from the Baltimore Regional Council. Poverty data based upon data the Census, 2000. Foreign born: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 and 2000 data. Household Characteristics: U.S. Census 2000. Migration: Calculated from U.S. Census 2000 by looking at place of residence for those 5 years and older. Age Distribution: Calculated from U.S. Census, 1990 and 2000 data. Personal and Per Capita Income: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business, March 2002.

Natural Environment: Change in Population Density: William Fulton, Rolf Pendall, Mai Nguyen, and Alicia Harrison, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. "Who Sprawls Most? How Growth Patterns Differ Across the U.S." Brookings Institute 2001. Housing Unit Density: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000. Map prepared by CUERE. Data was aggregated to the Regional Planning District (RPD). The total number of housing units was then divided by the area of the RPD to determine density. Distance of Employment from Center: Edward Glaeser, Mathew Kahn, and Chenghuan Chu, Job Sprawl: Employment Location in U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, 2001.

51 Baltimore Region Employment Centers: Baltimore Metropolitan Council, 2000. 10 Largest Employment Centers: Baltimore Regional Council. "Baltimore 2000 and Beyond: Regional Report," pp. 3,6. June 5, 1999. Mobility Measures: Texas Transportation Institute "2001 Annual Mobility Study", Tables A-2 1999 Urban Mobility Conditions; Table A-5 Hours Change in Annual Delay Per Person 1982-1999; A-14 Congested Lane-Miles of Roadway, Percent Peak Period; Table A-16 Roadway Congestion Index. Lane Miles of Severe or Extreme Congestion: Texas Transportation Institute, "2001 Annual Mobility Study." Percent Using Transit: U.S. Census, 1990. U.S. Census 2000 "Profile of Selected Economic Watershed." Characteristics Supplementary Survey Tables. Passenger Miles on Transit: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration. Transit Profiles for 1984; "1998: The Thirty Largest Transit Agencies." Ozone Air Quality: American Lung Association. Number of Unhealthy Ozone Days: EPA "Air Now" Inhalable Particulate: "Maryland Department of Environment. Air Quality Data Report, 1999 Regional Watershed Integrity: EPA "Index of Watershed Indicators." Land Cover: Maryland Department of Planning, 1997.

Quality of Life and Public Services:

Housing Affordability: National Association of Home Builders. http://www.nahb.com/Default.asp. Residential Property Values: Maryland Property View, 2001. Calculations and map by CUERE. The full market property value for residential properties was aggregated to the RPD level. From this the mean property value was calculated for each RPD. Cultural Amenities: Data compiled by CUERE. Map produced by CUERE, 2002. Number of Cultural Amenities: Citysearch.com Parks and Protected Lands: Maryland Department of Natural Resources Technology Toolbox. Educational Attainment of Residents: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey, March 2000 Detailed Tables. www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/education/p20-536.html Academic Research and Development: National Science Foundation WebCAPAR Database System: http://caspar.nsf.gov/ and Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching http://www.carnegiefoundation.org/Classification/index.htm. The Extensive university classification includes any university that ranks in the top 55 in the U.S. in terms of science and engineering expenditures. Performance on MSPAP: Maryland Department if Education http://www.msde.state.md.us/ Expected School Performance: Calculated by CUERE with data from the MSDE. Dropout Rates: Maryland Department of Education. Regional rate calculated by CUERE. Infant Mortality: U.S. Census, "State and Metropolitan Area Data Book 1997-98," Table B4. Infant Mortality by Race: Maryland Governor's Office for Children, Youth and Families. http://www.ocyf.state.md.us/Statistics.html Ten Leading Causes of Death: Department of Health and Mental Health "Maryland Vital Statistics Annual Report, 1999." http://www.mdpublichealth.org/vsa/images/99annual.pdf Violent and Property Crime Rates: FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2000; http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm Crime Rate: "Maryland State Police Uniform Crime Report, 2001."

52