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Survey Report YouGov / Welsh Barometer Survey Results Sample Size: 1174 Adults in Wales (16+) Fieldwork: 16th - 19th March 2021 VI : Westminster VI : Constituency VI : List Past Vote 2019 Plaid Plaid Plaid Lib Plaid Total Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Cymru Cymru Cymru Dem Cymru Weighted Sample 1174 261 271 132 240 263 184 219 256 173 308 349 50 85 Unweighted Sample 1174 277 307 145 247 288 196 222 281 193 327 392 54 101 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WESTMINSTER HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION 11-14 16-19 Headline Voting Intention Jan Mar [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16-17 year olds] Con 33 35 100 0 0 97 4 8 97 5 7 88 2 6 7 Lab 36 35 0 100 0 1 90 16 0 89 23 2 76 33 9 Lib Dem 3 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 43 2 Plaid Cymru 17 17 0 0 100 0 4 73 1 4 67 6 12 14 80 Reform UK 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 Green 4 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 6 0 1 Other 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 1 SENEDD HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Constituency Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer] Con 26 30 86 1 0 100 0 0 94 1 2 78 1 8 5 Lab 34 32 4 83 6 0 100 0 0 88 18 2 69 24 7 Lib 4 5 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 4 46 1 Plaid 22 23 5 11 91 0 0 100 3 8 77 11 21 8 85 Reform UK 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 2 2 Green 6 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 Other 4 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 1 13 0 Constituency Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer] UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 8 0 Gwlad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Propel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Communist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 © 2021 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.com YouGov / Welsh Barometer Survey Results Sample Size: 1174 Adults in Wales (16+) Fieldwork: 16th - 19th March 2021 EU Ref 2016 Gender Age Social Grade Region Mid and Cardiff and South South Total Remain Leave Male Female 16-24 25-49 50-64 65+ ABC1 C2DE North West South Central East West Weighted Sample 1174 418 453 572 602 162 432 284 296 584 581 224 243 262 243 202 Unweighted Sample 1174 488 461 506 668 140 397 297 340 633 537 232 245 238 249 210 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WESTMINSTER HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION 11-14 16-19 Headline Voting Intention Jan Mar [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16-17 year olds] Con 33 35 17 60 36 34 5 28 37 51 34 36 41 41 31 30 31 Lab 36 35 47 19 32 38 53 41 34 25 36 34 28 32 35 44 37 Lib Dem 3 4 7 2 4 5 4 5 2 6 5 4 6 3 4 5 5 Plaid Cymru 17 17 23 10 18 16 28 17 19 13 18 16 18 19 18 14 15 Reform UK 5 2 0 5 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 4 2 2 Green 4 3 5 1 2 4 4 5 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 1 4 Other 2 3 1 4 4 1 4 3 3 2 2 4 2 0 4 4 5 SENEDD HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION: Constituency Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer] Con 26 30 15 53 31 29 11 25 31 45 30 30 32 35 28 29 26 Lab 34 32 42 19 28 37 36 39 31 24 32 32 24 28 39 34 36 Lib 4 5 9 2 5 5 3 6 6 4 6 4 8 4 4 6 3 Plaid 22 23 28 14 24 22 37 21 22 19 23 22 28 26 20 22 18 Reform UK 5 3 1 5 4 1 3 2 3 2 2 4 2 4 3 2 2 Green 6 2 4 1 2 3 5 3 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 5 Other 4 5 3 7 6 4 4 5 6 5 4 6 5 1 4 5 11 Constituency Other Parties Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer] UKIP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 3 3 2 5 5 2 0 3 5 4 3 4 3 1 3 4 8 Gwlad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Propel 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Communist 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 1 1 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 © 2021 YouGov plc. All Rights Reserved www.yougov.com Sample Size: 1174 Adults in Wales (16+) Fieldwork: 16th - 19th March 2021 VI : Westminster VI : Constituency VI : List Past Vote 2019 Plaid Plaid Plaid Lib Plaid Total Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Con Lab Cymru Cymru Cymru Dem Cymru Weighted Sample 1174 261 271 132 240 263 184 219 256 173 308 349 50 85 Unweighted Sample 1174 277 307 145 247 288 196 222 281 193 327 392 54 101 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 11-14 16-19 Jan Mar List Voting Intention [Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer] Con 25 28 80 0 1 88 0 4 100 0 0 72 1 13 5 Lab 30 31 4 78 6 1 83 11 0 100 0 2 66 17 11 Lib 4 4 1 2 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 3 38 1 Plaid 23 22 5 16 86 1 12 75 0 0 100 9 21 23 74 Green 5 3 1 3 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 5 0 3 Reform UK 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 UKIP 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party 7 7 9 1 0 8 0 3 0 0 0 10 2 8 2 Gwlad 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Propel 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 Communist 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Other 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative 23 23 100 0 0 89 4 7 91 4 6 70 1 4 5 Labour 25 24 0 100 0 1 81 15 0 80 22 1 57 26 7 Liberal Democrat 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 35 2 Plaid Cymru 12 12 0 0 100 0 3 67 1 3 64 5 9 11 62 Reform UK 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 Green 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 4 0 1 Some other party 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 1 Would not vote 11 12 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 1 1 3 5 0 6 Don’t know 19 17 0 0 0 7 7 4 5 7 4 16 18 18 15 Refused 2 4 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 4 1 2 And which of these parties would you vote for? [Asked only to those who said 'Some other party' and excluding 16-17 year olds; n=19] UK Independence Party (UKIP) 59 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Women's Equality Party 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Some other party 29 71 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 0 100 0 100 100 Don't know 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Refused 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 © 2021 YouGov plc.
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