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Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Growth in Egypt

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Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Growth in Egypt Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Growth in Egypt The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Nada, Rania H. 2020. Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Growth in Egypt. Master's thesis, Harvard Extension School. Citable link https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37365639 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Growth in Egypt Rania Nada A Thesis in the Field of Sustainability for the Degree of Master of Liberal Arts in Extension Studies Harvard University November 2019 Copyright 2019 Rania Nada Abstract Financial Inclusion has recently emerged as a strategic priority to the governmental agenda in Egypt. Financial inclusion has long been associated with poverty reduction, reduced income inequalities and economic growth in emerging markets. Since economic growth alone is not enough of an indicator of the sustainable development of a country, this thesis attempts to investigate whether financial inclusion is associated with sustainable economic, social and environment growth in Egypt. Two main research questions were addressed in this study: Is financial inclusion in Egypt a driver towards sustainable growth? What can Egypt learn from other markets with regards to driving financial inclusion? To assess the role of financial inclusion on social inclusion and poverty reduction in Egypt, a composite index of sustainable development was constructed using proxy indicators for economic growth, social efficiency and environmental performance. Four predictor variables of financial inclusion were tested: average household deposits per capita, average household loans per capita, number of ATMs and number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults. A multiple regression model was developed using financial inclusion indicators and the sustainable development composite index for the years 2004-2017. Results showed that there is a strong correlation between financial inclusion and sustainable development in Egypt. With an R-Square of 0.99, a statistically significant correlation was observed between the proxies for financial inclusion and composite index of economic growth, social development and environmental performance. Strong associations were also seen between the financial inclusion proxies and the different separate components of the composite index. With only 33% of the adult population having access to formal financial services in Egypt, the opportunity to improve the overall well-being of society is monumental. Four main recommendations can be made based on this research to help policymakers in their quest to drive financial inclusion in Egypt and thereby sustainable development: 1) continue to develop and improve the legal and regulatory framework to facilitate the accessibility of financial services for the lower income portions of the population that live in remote and rural areas, 2) improve the market infrastructure by reducing transaction costs and enhancing the convenience of payments channels, 3) mandate the establishment of financial literacy programs either through financial institutions or other intermediaries, and 4) encourage financial and non-financial institutions to invest in financial technology solutions. Acknowledgements I would like to express my profound appreciation to Dr. Matthew Gardner, my Thesis Director, who gave me excellent advice throughout the months of developing this thesis research. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Mark Leighton, who provided me with great support in refining the thesis topic and research direction. And finally, I would like to thank my parents for truly believing in me and always supporting me, and my children, Amina Shindy and Yaseen Shindy, for their never- ending patience and understanding throughout this exciting journey. v Table of Contents Acknowledgements..............................................................................................................v List of Tables ...................................................................................................................viii List of Figures………………………………………………………………………….....ix I. Introduction .............................................................................................................1 Research Significance and Objectives ....................................................................2 Background………..………………………………………………………………3 Financial Inclusion as a Driver of Economic Growth.................................4 Financial Inclusion as a Driver of Social Development.………………….8 The Egypt Case Study………...………………………………………….11 Financial Inclusion in Emerging Markets…………...………..….............13 The role of banks in financial inclusion………………………….14 Emerging markets’ experiences with financial inclusion……......18 Financial Inclusion in Egypt………..........................................................22 Sustainable Development in Egypt…..…………...……………………...26 Measuring Sustainable Growth……………...………..…………………30 Economic growth indicators… …..……………………………...31 Social efficiency indicators……..………………………………..34 Environmental performance indicators..…………………………38 Recommended measures for research………....…………………42 Research Questions, Hypotheses, and Specific Aims …………...........................45 vi Specific Aims…………………………………………………………….46 II. Methods..................................................................................................................48 Data Collection…….…………………………………………………….48 Constructing the Sustainable Development Index..…………………..….49 Correlation Analysis for the Composite Index……………….………….51 Financial Inclusion Variables…………..……………………………..…52 Multiple Regression Model……...……………………………………….52 III. Results....................................................................................................................54 IV. Discussion……..…………………………………………………………………62 Research Limitations ................................................................................63 Future Research Directions…..…………………………………………..64 Conclusions………………………….…………………………………………...65 References……..................................................................................................................68 vii List of Tables Table1 Sustainable development goals…………………………………………….28-29 Table 2 Egypt’s HDI trends……………………………………..……………….…….38 Table 3 SDG indicators - Acceptance, Relevancy and Availability…………..…....43-44 Table 4 Proxy measures for economic, social and environmental performance………..50 Table 5 Economic, social and environmental performance data for Egypt………….....54 Table 6 Normalized values of sustainable development variables…………………..…54 Table 7 Correlation coefficients of selected sustainable development variables...…......56 Table 8 Correlation coefficients of economic, social & environmental performance.....56 Table 9 Financial inclusion data for Egypt 2004-2017………………………….…..…57 Table 10 Normalized financial inclusion data for Egypt 2004-2017……………..….…..57 Table 11 Correlation coefficients of the financial inclusion indicators…….…..…….….57 Table 12 Normalized raw data inputs to the multiple regression model………….….......58 Table 13 Model statistics…………………………………………………………...…...59 Table 14 Model statistics for the different components of the composite index….……...61 viii List of Figures Figure 1 Sustainability sweet spot…………………………………………………..…..4 Figure 2 Ecosystem configurations supporting financial inclusion…………...………10 Figure 3 Barriers to financial inclusion………….………………………………….....12 Figure 4 Financial and digital inclusion project country rankings………………….....13 Figure 5 Number of ATMs and bank branches in Egypt………..………...………..…24 Figure 6 Number of ATMs and bank branches per 100,000 adults…..………...……..24 Figure 7 Household deposits, loans and loan to deposit ratio…..…………….…….…25 Figure 8 Number of plastic cards and POSs in Egypt………………………………....25 Figure 9 GDP per capita………………....…………………………………………….33 Figure 10 Annual GDP growth rate….………………...……………………………….33 Figure 11 Percentage of the population living below poverty lines…......………..….…33 Figure 12 GINI coefficient in Egypt …………………………………………………...34 Figure 13 Unemployment rates………………………………………………………....34 Figure 14 Illiteracy rates………………………………………………………………...35 Figure 15 Female labor force participation rate…………...……………………………35 Figure 16 Tuberculosis incidences……………………………………………………...37 Figure 17 Maternal mortality ratio……………………………………………………...37 Figure 18 Traffic accident deaths…………………………………………………….....37 Figure 19 Below 5 years old mortality ratio ………………………………………...….37 Figure 20 The human development index ……………………………………………...37 ix Figure 21 Population density…...…………………………………………………….…38 Figure 22 Percentage of households connected to the public water network, the public sanitation network and with access to electricity………………………….....41 Figure 23 Renewable freshwater………………………………………………………..41 Figure 24 Amount of water treated …………………………………………………….42 Figure 25 Normalized values for economic, social and environmental performance…..55 Figure 26 Sustainable development index for Egypt 2004-2017…………..…………...55 Figure 27 Normalized data for sustainable development and financial inclusion indicators……………………………………………………………………..58 Figure 28 Actual and predicted
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