Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine September 12-25, 2014
International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.
• Data was collected throughout Ukraine (excluding Crimea), including the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, between September 12–25, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.
• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.
• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures. • Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea. • Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
• Response rate was 63 percent.
• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• The survey was funded by U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Strong Majority in Every Region Opposes Russia’s Military Aggression
International Republican Institute Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know/Refused to answer
September 2% 4% 10% 79% 2014 5%
April 2014 4% 5% 12% 73% 6%
March 2014 7% 6% 9% 72% 6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
West 3% 96% 1%
Center 1% 2% 12% 81% 4%
South 1% 5% 13% 76% 5%
East 4% 7% 13% 65% 11%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine?
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
Ukrainian- 1% 2% 9% 86% 3% speaking citizens
Russian-speaking 4% 7% 13% 66% 10% citizens
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6 In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do?
Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer
September 75% 5% 9% 2% 1% 8% 2014
April 2014 66% 7% 17% 2%1% 7%
March 2014 64% 10% 14% 1% 1% 10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7 To what extent do you agree with each of the following statements?
Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
I am proud to be a Ukrainian 49% 33% 8% 4% 6% citizen
My future depends primarily on 23% 31% 25% 14% 7% me
I feel respected by Ukrainian 36% 22% 10% 11% society 21%
With hard work one can achieve 12% 23% 28% 28% 9% a lot in life
Ordinary citizens like me can 7% 25% 32% 27% 8% influence government decisions
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 8 To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “I am proud to be a Ukrainian citizen.”
Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
18-29 years 53% 32% 6% 3% 6%
30-49 years 43% 36% 7% 7% 7% AGE
50 years and older 50% 31% 10% 3% 6%
West 77% 20% 2% 1%
Center 57% 30% 5% 2% 6%
REGION South 33% 44% 17% 3% 3%
East 25% 40% 11% 11% 13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
9 How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities of Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine?
They've done everything that could be done They've only done some of what could be done They've done very little of what could be done They've been completely inactive Difficult to answer/No answer
September 2014 15% 30% 33% 14% 8%
April 2014 14% 29% 27% 23% 7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
10 Who should pay for the reconstruction of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine which were damaged during the military activities there?
Russia 56%
Donetsk and Luhansk regions 32%
Other regions of Ukraine 16%
European Union 16%
United States 11%
Commonwealth of 4% Independent States
Other 9%
Don't know/Refused to answer 13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
11 In your opinion, what should Ukraine do about Crimea? Should it use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine or should it accept the loss of Crimea to Russia?
19%
Use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine Accept the loss of Crimea to 55% Russia Difficult to answer/No answer 26%
12 Do you support the anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions?
8%
28% 18%
Fully support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose 15% Fully oppose
31% Don't know/Refused to answer
13 Clear Support for Kyiv Government
International Republican Institute Do you approve of the job Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is doing?
10% 15%
Strongly approve 13% Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
22% Don't know/Refused 40% to answer
15 If Ukraine were only able to enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be?
European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer
September 59% 17% 10% 14% 2014
April 2014 53% 24% 10% 13%
March 2014 52% 27% 6% 14%
February 2014 41% 36% 9% 14%
September 42% 37% 5% 16% 2013
May 2013 40% 37% 5% 18%
August 2012 32% 42% 6% 20%
May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17%
March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17% November 42% 40% 3% 15% 2011
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16 How would you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?
Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer
Poland 57% 35% 6% 2%
Georgia 54% 37% 6% 3%
Belarus 51% 39% 7% 3%
European 48% 38% 11% 3% Union
Lithuania 46% 44% 7% 3%
Canada 44% 46% 6% 3%
United 40% 16% 3% States 41%
Moldova 39% 51% 5% 4%
Germany 31% 53% 14% 2%
Russia 15% 17% 66% 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 What is your opinion of the work of each of these institutions? Is it favorable or unfavorable?
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No answer Army 68% 23% 9% The church 67% 17% 16% Ukrainian media 54% 36% 10% Local authorities 48% 39% 13% Presidential administration 42% 45% 13% Education system 39% 44% 17% Cabinet of Ministers 39% 52% 9% Governors' office 38% 42% 20% Central Election Commission 34% 39% 27% Ombudsman's office 27% 34% 39% Security service of Ukraine 27% 54% 19% Trade unions 20% 53% 27% Police 19% 71% 10% Prosecutor's office 15% 73% 12% Parliament 15% 81% 4% Central bank 14% 73% 13% Political parties 14% 75% 11% Courts 11% 77% 12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
18 Do you approve of the job the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers under Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing?
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
September 13% 35% 27% 15% 10% 2014
April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8%
March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government?
Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 57% 34% 9%
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 54% 39% 1% 6%
Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov 33% 55% 1% 11%
Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov 28% 53% 4% 15%
Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin 25% 31% 27% 17%
Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema 25% 41% 15% 19%
Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman 24% 33% 26% 17%
Minister of Defense Valeriy Heletey 23% 47% 13% 17%
Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta 18% 34% 29% 19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
20 Voter Enthusiasm for Parliamentary Elections is High
International Republican Institute If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?*
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer
September 2014 41% 32% 7% 15% 5%
April 2014 49% 32% 4% 11% 4%
March 2014 42% 33% 5% 12% 8%
February 2014 41% 35% 8% 10% 6%
September 2013 34% 34% 7% 20% 5%
May 2013 33% 36% 8% 19% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
* In surveys conducted in 2013 and in March and April 2014, the wording of the question was: If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 22 If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?
Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer
West 63% 28% 3% 6%
Center 53% 29% 5% 9% 3%
South 19% 43% 8% 24% 6%
East 24% 31% 11% 24% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
23 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, which political party would you vote for? (Likely voters, n=880)
Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (V.Klychko, Yu.Lutsenko) 32%
Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (О.Lyashko) 10%
Batkivshchyna (Yu.Tymoshenko) 7%
Civic Position (A.Hrytsenko, V.Hatsko) 6%
People’s Front (A.Yatsenyuk, О.Turchynov) 5%
Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) 4%
Association SAMOPOMICH (H.Hopko, A.Sadovyi) 4%
Strong Ukraine (S.Tihipko) 3%
Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 3%
Party of Regions (M.Dobkin, R.Akhmetov) 2%
Centre (V.Rabinovych) 1%
Right Sector (D.Yarosh) 1%
Powerful Ukraine (L.Orobets) 1%
Other 2%
Difficult to answer/Don't know 19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 24 In your opinion, was the presidential election on May 25, 2014 free and fair?
16%
25% Absolutely free and fair 7% Mostly free and fair Not very free and fair
Absolutely not free and fair 14% Don't know/Refused to answer
38%
25 Mood of Ukraine
International Republican Institute Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 80% 73% 69% 70% 66% 67% 71% 64% 60% 58% 52% 50% 51% 48% 40% 34% 30% 30% 29% 24% 20% 18% 18% 20% 16% 14% 16% 20% 18% 17% 18% 18% 10% 13% 13% 14% 15% 15%
0% November March May August May September February March April September 2011 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
27 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed?
2% 0% 1%
11%
Improved a lot
Improved somewhat
Stayed the same
29% Worsened somewhat
57% Worsened a lot
Don't know/Refused to answer
28 Which of the following issues are the three most important for Ukraine? (Three responses)
Military conflict in the Donbas 73% Corruption within the state bodies 37% Unemployment 24% Political instability 23% Relations with Russia 20% Control over price growth 17% Hryvnia devaluation 16% Low industry production 14% Government incompetence 14% Lack/Possibility of cutting off utilities 14% Russian presence in the Crimea 14% Social protection for poor 9% Crime 8% Delay in salary/Pension payments 6% Rights to land ownership 2% Russian language status 1% Other 2% Difficult to answer/No answer 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
29 Do you think it is acceptable for groups of people to use each of the following methods of protest?
Acceptable Unacceptable Don't know/No answer
Collecting signatures for petition/letter 84% 11% 5%
Legal demonstrations 71% 21% 8%
Legal strikes 63% 28% 9%
Boycott 61% 30% 9%
Demonstrations without permission 29% 61% 10%
Strikes without permission 25% 65% 10%
Blocking of major roads 20% 71% 9%
Occupation of buildings or enterprises 16% 76% 8%
Blocking of railway lines 14% 77% 9%
Blocking of airports 13% 79% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
30 Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term improvements in the quality of your life?
6% 17% 18% Definitely willing
Somewhat willing
Not very willing
Definitely not willing
Don't know/Refused 21% 38% to answer
31 Are you willing to live through some economic difficulties today (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it leads to long-term improvements in the quality of your life?
Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/Refused to answer
West 31% 52% 10% 3% 4%
Center 18% 36% 24% 16% 6%
South 10% 36% 20% 28% 6%
East 8% 32% 26% 26% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
32 Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia?
7%
20% 17% Definitely willing
Somewhat willing
Not very willing
Definitely not willing 17% Don't know/Refused 39% to answer
33 Would your family be willing to save on gas, heat and electricity if you were confident that it would strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia?
Definitely willing Somewhat willing Not very willing Definitely not willing Don't know/Refused to answer
West 33% 53% 6% 3% 4%
Center 24% 34% 21% 12% 9%
South 10% 37% 20% 29% 4%
East 10% 34% 21% 26% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
34 Should Ukrainian women serve in influential positions in the national government?
7%
12%
Yes
No
Don't know/Refused to answer 81%
35 Should Ukraine institute a quota system to guarantee a minimum number of women in the Parliament?
16%
36% Yes
No
Don't know/Refused to answer 48%
36 Mass Media
International Republican Institute Which of these sources of information do you use for obtaining political information?
Ukrainian TV 89%
Internet 47%
Relatives/Friends 39%
Articles in Ukrainian newspapers 27%
Ukrainian radio 21%
Russian TV 12%
Colleagues at work 12%
Billboards, stands in the streets 5%
Russian radio 4%
Meetings with politicians 4%
Articles in Ukrainian magazines 3%
Leaflets/Other free information by post 3%
None 1%
Don't know/Refused to answer 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
38 How many times per week do you access the Internet?
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Refused to answer/Don't know
September 2014 32% 8% 8% 5% 4% 42% 1%
February 2014 30% 9% 8% 5% 6% 40% 2%
September 2013 28% 6% 9% 8% 6% 42% 1%
May 2013 24% 6% 8% 9% 5% 47% 1%
August 2012 19% 5% 5% 6% 5% 57% 3%
May 2012 24% 6% 9% 6% 5% 49% 1%
March 2012 25% 4% 4% 6% 4% 56% 1%
November 2011 19% 6% 7% 7% 5% 54% 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
39 Demographics
International Republican Institute Demographics
Male 45%
Female 55% GENDER 18-29 years 22%
30-49 years 35% AGE 50 years and older 44%
Ukrainian 67%
Russian 33%
AT HOME AT
E SPOKEN E LANGUAG Secondary or lower 28%
Vocational 40%
EDUCATION Higher 32%
Blue collar 24% Farmer 1% White collar 19%
Higher or medium executive 3%
Retired/Not working 29%
Student 4% OCCUPATION Housewife 8%
Unemployed 7%
Other 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 41 Demographics
Orthodox 77% Greek Catholic 9% Other 2%
Atheist 3% RELIGION Believe in God but don't belong to any religion 8% No answer 1% Bad 47% Average 51% Good FAMILY 1%
SITUATIONOF No answer 1% City with more than 1 million 17% City with 500-999 thousand 8% City with 100-499 thousand 17% City with 50-99 thousand 9%
Up to 50 thousand 18% SETTLEMENTTYPE Rural area 31% West 24% Center 31%
South 15% REGIONS East 30%
0% 50% 100% 42 Demographics
Oblasts in the West: Volynska, Transcarpathian, Ivano-Frankivska, Lvivska, Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Chernivetska, Khmelnytska,
Oblasts in the Center: Vinnytska, Kirovogradska, Poltavska, Cherkaska, Zhytomyrska, Sumska, Chernihivska, Kyivska and the city of Kyiv
Oblasts in the South: Odeska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Zaporizka
Oblasts in the East: Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska
43 What can you say about the financial status of your family?
Need to save money for food
Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes
Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time
Don't know/No answer
September 2014 14% 33% 37% 13% 1% 1%
April 2014 12% 32% 39% 13% 2% 1%
March 2014 11% 30% 44% 13% 1% 1%
February 2014 8% 26% 45% 18% 2% 1%
September 2013 10% 26% 41% 20% 2% 0.3% 0.1% May 2013 7% 30% 42% 20% 1% 0.4% August 2012 12% 29% 41% 14% 3% 0.3% 1% May 2012 11% 31% 38% 15% 3% 0.4%
March 2012 11% 31% 36% 17% 3% 1% Nov 2011 12% 30% 41% 14% 2% 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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