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Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine September 12-25, 2014

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Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine September 12-25, 2014 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine September 12-25, 2014 International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. • Data was collected throughout Ukraine (excluding Crimea), including the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, between September 12–25, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. • Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures. • Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea. • Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 63 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Strong Majority in Every Region Opposes Russia’s Military Aggression International Republican Institute Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know/Refused to answer September 2% 4% 10% 79% 2014 5% April 2014 4% 5% 12% 73% 6% March 2014 7% 6% 9% 72% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer West 3% 96% 1% Center 1% 2% 12% 81% 4% South 1% 5% 13% 76% 5% East 4% 7% 13% 65% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine? Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer Ukrainian- 1% 2% 9% 86% 3% speaking citizens Russian-speaking 4% 7% 13% 66% 10% citizens 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6 In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do? Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer September 75% 5% 9% 2% 1% 8% 2014 April 2014 66% 7% 17% 2%1% 7% March 2014 64% 10% 14% 1% 1% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7 To what extent do you agree with each of the following statements? Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer I am proud to be a Ukrainian 49% 33% 8% 4% 6% citizen My future depends primarily on 23% 31% 25% 14% 7% me I feel respected by Ukrainian 36% 22% 10% 11% society 21% With hard work one can achieve 12% 23% 28% 28% 9% a lot in life Ordinary citizens like me can 7% 25% 32% 27% 8% influence government decisions 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 8 To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “I am proud to be a Ukrainian citizen.” Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree Don't know/Refused to answer 18-29 years 53% 32% 6% 3% 6% 30-49 years 43% 36% 7% 7% 7% AGE 50 years and older 50% 31% 10% 3% 6% West 77% 20% 2% 1% Center 57% 30% 5% 2% 6% REGION South 33% 44% 17% 3% 3% East 25% 40% 11% 11% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9 How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities of Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine? They've done everything that could be done They've only done some of what could be done They've done very little of what could be done They've been completely inactive Difficult to answer/No answer September 2014 15% 30% 33% 14% 8% April 2014 14% 29% 27% 23% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10 Who should pay for the reconstruction of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine which were damaged during the military activities there? Russia 56% Donetsk and Luhansk regions 32% Other regions of Ukraine 16% European Union 16% United States 11% Commonwealth of 4% Independent States Other 9% Don't know/Refused to answer 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11 In your opinion, what should Ukraine do about Crimea? Should it use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine or should it accept the loss of Crimea to Russia? 19% Use all available resources to return Crimea to Ukraine Accept the loss of Crimea to 55% Russia Difficult to answer/No answer 26% 12 Do you support the anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions? 8% 28% 18% Fully support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose 15% Fully oppose 31% Don't know/Refused to answer 13 Clear Support for Kyiv Government International Republican Institute Do you approve of the job Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is doing? 10% 15% Strongly approve 13% Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 22% Don't know/Refused 40% to answer 15 If Ukraine were only able to enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be? European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer September 59% 17% 10% 14% 2014 April 2014 53% 24% 10% 13% March 2014 52% 27% 6% 14% February 2014 41% 36% 9% 14% September 42% 37% 5% 16% 2013 May 2013 40% 37% 5% 18% August 2012 32% 42% 6% 20% May 2012 37% 41% 5% 17% March 2012 36% 43% 4% 17% November 42% 40% 3% 15% 2011 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 16 How would you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer Poland 57% 35% 6% 2% Georgia 54% 37% 6% 3% Belarus 51% 39% 7% 3% European 48% 38% 11% 3% Union Lithuania 46% 44% 7% 3% Canada 44% 46% 6% 3% United 40% 16% 3% States 41% Moldova 39% 51% 5% 4% Germany 31% 53% 14% 2% Russia 15% 17% 66% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 What is your opinion of the work of each of these institutions? Is it favorable or unfavorable? Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No answer Army 68% 23% 9% The church 67% 17% 16% Ukrainian media 54% 36% 10% Local authorities 48% 39% 13% Presidential administration 42% 45% 13% Education system 39% 44% 17% Cabinet of Ministers 39% 52% 9% Governors' office 38% 42% 20% Central Election Commission 34% 39% 27% Ombudsman's office 27% 34% 39% Security service of Ukraine 27% 54% 19% Trade unions 20% 53% 27% Police 19% 71% 10% Prosecutor's office 15% 73% 12% Parliament 15% 81% 4% Central bank 14% 73% 13% Political parties 14% 75% 11% Courts 11% 77% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 18 Do you approve of the job the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers under Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer September 13% 35% 27% 15% 10% 2014 April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8% March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19 What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government? Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 57% 34% 9% Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 54% 39% 1% 6% Speaker of Parliament Oleksandr Turchynov 33% 55% 1% 11% Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov 28% 53% 4% 15% Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin 25% 31% 27% 17% Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema 25% 41% 15% 19% Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman 24% 33% 26% 17% Minister of Defense Valeriy Heletey 23% 47% 13% 17% Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta 18% 34% 29% 19% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20 Voter Enthusiasm for Parliamentary Elections is High International Republican Institute If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?* Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer September 2014 41% 32% 7% 15% 5% April 2014 49% 32% 4% 11% 4% March 2014 42% 33% 5% 12% 8% February 2014 41% 35% 8% 10% 6% September 2013 34% 34% 7% 20% 5% May 2013 33% 36% 8% 19% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% * In surveys conducted in 2013 and in March and April 2014, the wording of the question was: If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 22 If early parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably not Definitely not Don't know/Refused to answer West 63% 28% 3% 6% Center 53% 29% 5% 9% 3% South 19% 43% 8% 24% 6% East 24% 31% 11% 24% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23 If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, which political party would you vote for? (Likely voters, n=880) Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (V.Klychko, Yu.Lutsenko) 32% Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (О.Lyashko) 10% Batkivshchyna (Yu.Tymoshenko)
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